2012 년도타당성재조사보고서 여수신북항건설사업 2012. 10
요약
요약 1. 사업의개요 가. 추진배경및목적 2012( 1), 2) ) 164 11. -.,,. (2008.10.23, ) 3). 1),,,,,,,. 2),,,,. 3) 2013 7
2012(, ) 11, ( A,B,C,W ).. 나. 사업내용및추진경위 : : : 1,103m, 1,270m, 960m - : 473m, 130m, 500m - : 1,121m, 149m - : 960m 4) - : 64.5, 15.2, 1 : 3,241-1,298, 1,726-78, 139-9() - (100%), : 2013~2019(7) : () 4) 2() 5., (., (3) ()).
9() () ( ).,. ( ) ( )., 151. 2. 1. 가. 항만기본계획나. 제51조제1항에따른항만재개발기본계획다. 신항만건설촉진법 제3조제1항에따른신항만건설기본계획 2. 항만의관리 운영상항만공사의필요성이있을것 3. 재원조달능력등국토해양부령으로정하는기준에따라항만공사를시행할사업수행능력이있을것 4 국토해양부장관은대통령령으로정하는일정규모이상의항만공사를허가하려는경우에는국토해양부령으로정하는바에따라이를미리공고하여야한다. 5 국토해양부장관은제4항에따라공고한항만공사에대하여허가신청인이경합하는경우항만공사계획, 재원조달능력등국토해양부령으로정한기준에따라평가한후우선순위자에게허가하여야한다. 6 국토해양부장관은제1항본문에따라항만공사를시행하거나제2항본문에따라항만공사를허가한경우에는국토해양부령으로정하는바에따라그사실을고시하여야한다. - () 2008. 07-2012( 08.11.25, ):,. 2008. 11-2012 2009. 06 - () 2010. 08-2011. 07 - () 2011. 11-2012 2011. 12-2012 30() 2012. 01 -
다. 타당성재조사사유 2012, 2012 30() (4912) 5). 2. 기초자료현황및쟁점 가. 기초자료 3(, 2011) Port Renewal (, 2010) 2012(, 2008) (, 2009) 2012()(, 2012.9) 나. 쟁점사항 2012() 13. -, () 5) 49(). 2.
(). -, - ((),, (), 34, ) -, KTX SOC - 3 0.72.0m,.,. (,, ). -,, 3. - ( 3 137 150) 3 405m.. 3(2011~2020). -.
. - 3(2011~2020) 2015,. ( ). - 3, 11,.,. 3. 비용추정 가. 시설규모검토 3(, 2011) 1,103m( 473m, 130m, 500m), 1,270m( 1,121m, 149m), 960m..
,, - 3,. - 21,400 24,160. 59,395 64,500. Apron 30m 14,410m. 15,170. < 표 1> 상부시설검토 Apron () 21,400 59,395 14,410 15,170 110,375 () 24,160 64,500 14,410 15,170 118,240 : 7,865. - 1, 2(1,000DWT, 5,000 DWT) 나. 대체부두활용가능성검토 < 표 2> 기존계류시설활용가능성검토 - (, 2012.4) - - -
< 표 2> 의계속 - (3Knot)( 200m). - 1.2~1.5m(). - - - - 2, -. -. - 12. - 2. 2. - 5,. - 1 20. - 140.0m 12, 2013. - 1 20. - 20. - 1,. - ( 1). - 8.
다. 비용검토,,,, ()(, 2001). -. < 표 3> 총공사비추정 () 1. 212,796 1 103,806, 1 78,710,, 79,700 18,342,, m 960 3,358 1 8,580 2. 1 22,687, 235,483 (1+2) 23,548 ( 10%) 259,031 (+), 2. - ( 12)
, (164). < 표 4> 총사업비추정 (: ) ()(, 2001),,. < 표 5> 운영비산정 (: ) 1 2 (a) 278,134 235,483 (a b) 2,781 2,355
4. 수요추정,. - 3(2010~2020), (Box-Jenkins ). -,, 6) ( 16, 5, 5, 3, 3 43),.. -. 6),,,
< 표 6> 광양항물동량예측 (RT) (%) 3(A) ARIMA(B) (C) B/A C/A 2011 219,928 219,928 219,928 100.0 100.0 2015 260,312 259,024 262,437 99.5 100.8 2020 321,374 299,528 305,259 93.2 95.0 2025 367,475 340,032 339,939 92.5 92.5 2030 421,067 380,536 371,733 90.4 88.3 2035-421,040 399,646 - - 2040-461,544 429,717 - - 2049-534,451 489,821 - - 20303, 2031~2049 Box-Jenkins., 2031~2049 2030 2049 Box-Jenkins. < 표 7> 광양항물동량예측 (RT) (RT) (%) 2011 219,928,461 18,327,372-2015 260,312,000 21,692,667 4.3 2020 321,374,000 26,781,167 4.3 2025 367,475,000 30,622,917 2.7 2030 421,067,000 35,088,917 2.8 2035 448,335,371 37,361,281 1.3 2040 477,369,646 39,780,804 1.3 2049 534,451,173 44,537,598 1.3 20303 (2010~2020). (, 2011) 2030 2030.
< 표 8> 입출항선박예측 (: ) 2011 2020 2025 2030 2040 2049 60,156 89,482 102,080 114,100 128,278 142,653. < 표 9> 여수항 광양항의역무선증가추이 (: ) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 31 33 31 32 31 32 34 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 9 14 14 14 14 10 10 10 24 24 24 25 61 61 61 56 58 64 58 117 119 117 132 133 140 138 ()., 100 0.6. -. - 2005 7 2005 35.5% 2011 43.9% 7 1.2%. - 2011 1GT 61.3% 60%. -
, 3 2030 2030. < 표 10> 역무선예측 (: ) 2020 2025 2030 89,482 102,080 114,100 44,741 51,040 57,050 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 26,845 30,624 34,230 223 246 268 193 213 232 5. 편익산정 ( 2010). < 표 11> 관공선부두별잔류및이전계획 (: ) 1 2 (4,200) 43 7 15 2 1 2 2 0 14-30 7 3 2 1 0 2 0 14 1 14 0 12 0 0 2 0 0 0 -
< 표 12> 역무선부두별잔류및이전계획 (: ) 1 2 WAK 121 13 28 18 5 8 12 20 17 93 13 28 18 5 0 12 0 17 28 0 0 0 0 8 0 20 0 < 표 13> 사업시행및미시행시대상선박현황 2010-11 164( 43, 121) - (2010~ 2019) - 13, 28-30, 93 ( ) - - - 2020~ 2049 (30) - 2010 30, 93 - - 2010 30, 93.
< 표 14> 편익추정항목내용 ( 2, 17 ) 2, 80(93 ( 13), ) (21) ( ) 2010 ( )
< 표 15> 편익산정결과 (: ) 2014 3,179 3,179 2015 28,612 28,612 2016 18,612 18,612 2017 12,614 12,614 2018 7,908 7,908 2019 5,928 5,928 2020 402 1,695 33 60 26 63 337 26,681 15,653 566 3,158 48,676 2021 402 1,727 33 60 26 63 337 267 5,654 566 3,243 12,379 2022 402 1,770 33 60 26 63 337 267 5,677 566 3,329 12,531 2023 402 1,813 33 60 26 63 337 267 8,228 566 3,418 15,214 2024 402 1,856 33 60 26 63 337 267 5,746 566 3,509 12,866 2025 402 1,910 33 60 26 63 337 267 8,297 566 3,603 15,564 2026 402 1,942 33 60 26 63 337 267 5,814 566 3,684 13,195 2027 402 1,985 33 60 26 63 337 267 5,837 566 3,767 13,344 2028 402 2,028 33 60 26 63 337 267 5,860 566 3,852 13,494 2029 402 2,060 33 60 26 63 337 267 5,883 566 3,939 13,636 2030 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 8,434 566 4,027 16,329 2031 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2032 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2033 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2034 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2035 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 26,948 3,423 566 4,027 37,999 2036 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2037 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2038 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2039 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2040 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2041 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2042 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2043 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2044 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2045 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2046 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2047 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2048 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318 2049 402 2,113 33 60 26 63 337 267 3,423 566 4,027 11,318
6. 경제성분석 < 표 16> 경제성분석결과 1 2 (%) 5.5% 5.5% () 253,765 218,035 () 207,526 207,526 (NPV, ) -46,239-10,509 (B/C Ratio) 0.8178 0.9518 (IRR, %) 3.076% 4.943% 7. 정책적분석 가. 지역균형발전 16 16. 170, 69. < 표 17> 직접영향권의지역낙후도산정결과 -0.693 71.114 33.076 6.130 24.081 1.289 0.107 7.279 98 56 56 65 96 39 57 34 0.048 69 :, 2012, 2012.
1 2 0.3201% 0.2737% 2009 53 0.4660%. < 표 18> 지역경제활성화효과 (: ) 1 2 2,997 2,546 2,003.26 1,713.06 (GRDP, 2009) 625,790.18 625,790.18 0.3201% 0.2737% 나. 정책일관성및추진의지 3(2011~2020)(, 2011)2012()(, 2012). - 3(2011~2020),. - 2012() (). 2012 3 (2011~2020).
- 2012. -. -,. -,,. 다. 사업추진상위험요인 (2011~2015) - 2011 1 6,330 2015 1 6,770 0.7%. -, 2015 1 4.68%, 2 3.25%. 3(2011~2015) - 1 2 2015 1.74%, 1.21%..
, 3. -, ( 389, 2009.9.10),. 8. 종합평가및정책제언 2012()(, 2012),. 130m,.
< 표 19> 타당성재조사추정결과비교 1 2 (: ) - 1,103m, 1,270m, 960m - : 473m, 130m, - 500m ( : 1,121m, ) 149m : 960m 2013~2019 2012~2019 2012~2019 324,100 308,424 261,471 - - - 324,100 308,424 261,471-10,546 8,999-10,139 9,093-578 513-21,263 18,605 324,100 329,687 280,076 B/C - 0.82 0.95 AHP - - 0.608