(% YoY) 1 저점시차발생구간글로벌경기선행지수전년비상승률 (L) 글로별경기선행지수순환변동치 (R) (%) 13 8 12 6 4 2-2 11 1 99 98 97 96-4 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219 95
: (USD bn) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 5 억달러에 25% 신규적용 미국의중국산수입관세인상누적규모 2, 억달러에 1% 신규적용 2, 억달러에 25% 로상향 2,5 억달러에 3% 로상향 1.9 배 3, 억달러에 15% 신규적용 (9 월, 12 월분할 ) 3.7 배 3, 억달러에 3% 로상향 ( 두차례분할예상 ) 5.1 배 2.75 2.5 2.25 2. 1.75 1.5 1.25 18.3 18.6 18.9 18.12 19.3 19.6 19.9 19.12 2.3 2.6 Fed 기준금리 (%) 18.3 18.6 18.9 18.12 19.3 19.6 19.9 19.12 2.3 2.6
: (% YoY) 3.5 3. Core CPI Core PPI 2% 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5-213 214 215 216 217 218 219
Answer to the question of relocating plan due to US-China conflict? How impacting your business strategy? Latin America Europe 1.5 3.9 3.8 4.2 219.May 218.Sep 중국내에서중국내수공략강화 1 2 3 4 (%) 35.3 East Asia 4.2 4.2 투자결정보류또는취소 33.2 US Greater India 5.9 6. 8.4 6.3 중국밖으로생산공장일부또는전부이전 19.7 Southeast Asia 24.7 18.5 투자확대 2.9 No plans to relocate manufacturing facilities 6.3 64.6 (%) 중국시장에서완전철수 2.5 2 4 6 8
, (%) 중국최종수요에서내수비중 중국최종수요에서미국향수출비중 9 8 75.8 73.7 72. 72.1 74. 79.6 78.5 78.6 79.2 79.9 8.3 81.7 83.2 83.1 83.5 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.3 4.6 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218
USD-CNY (% YoY) 중국수출증가율 7.2 7. 미중관세인상잠정중단합의 5 4 위안화환산수출액 미국달러표시수출액 3 6.8 6.6 6.4 3 차관세인상 4 차관세인상 5 차관세인상 2 1-1 6.2 1, 2 차관세인상 -2 6. 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.7-3 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.7
(% MoM) 미국소매판매 : 자동차및주유소판매제외 2. 1.5 (% YoY) 8 7 (%) (%) 8 NAHB 주택시장지수 (L) 8 산업생산설비가동률 (R) 75 79 1. 6 7 78.5 5 65 77 4 76. 3 6 75 -.5 2 55 74-1. 1 5 73-1.5 217 218 219 45 214 215 216 217 218 219 72
(%) Euro area PMI Euro area retail sales excl. food & fuel 62 Composite 8 전월비 % 전년비 % 6 Manufacturing Service 6 58 4 56 54 2 52 5 48-2 46 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.7-4 217 218 219
219 GDP 2%. 21. 218 1%. 2%.,.,. 25bp (1.5 1.25%). GDP 3% 2% 1% Korea GDP (%) 7 6 % QoQ SAAR % YoY 5 BOK base rate Core CPI inflation 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 ` -1 1-2 214 215 216 217 218 219 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
2-1%., -2%, -17%,., -5% Export growth (% YoY) Export growth (% YoY) 1 Total 4 Total 8 China bound Semiconductor China bound semiconductor 3 excluding China bound export excluding Semiconductor 6 2 4 1 2-2 -1-4 215 216 217 218 219 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research -2 215 216 217 218 219 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
. - 115% 2.,. (%) 85 83 81 79 77 75 73 71 69 67 Capacity utilization ratio(%, L) Inventory-shipment ratio(reverse, R) (%) 65 75 85 95 15 115 65 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 125 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
72% 1. 1.,.. (% YoY) (%) Capacity (% YoY) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Manufacturing capacity utilization ratio (RHS) 84 82 8 78 76 74 72 7 68-2 1995 1999 23 27 211 215 219 66 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
.,,., (% YoY, 3M ma) 2 15 Retail sales total Retail sales: durable goods Retail sales: semi-durable goods Retail sales: non durable goods 1 5-5 -1 215 216 217 218 219 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
... The lagging indicator s reversal (% YoY, 6M ma) (% YoY, 6M ma) 5 4 3 Export, custom basis (L) Facility investment (L) Empolyment (R) 6 5 4 2 3 1 2 1-1 -2-1 -3 27 29 211 213 215 217 219-2 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
( ) 4~49., 6.,. 4~49, 6 (8 ) (', YoY) Male Employment (', YoY) Female Employment 2 163 25 28 15 2 1 55 15 123 5 1 3 5 5-5 -37-1 -15-112 2~29 3~39 4~49 5~59 6 and over -5-1 -42-72 2~29 3~39 4~49 5~59 6 and over Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
., 15%,.,. 22,. +15%, %, (% YoY) 4 3 2 1-1 Government revenue(ex. social security fund revenue) Government expenditure(ex. social security fund expenditure) (KRW, tn) 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 Managed fiscal balance(12m moving sum) -2 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research -7 27 29 211 213 215 217 219 Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
GDP 9%. 6%. LTV 2% ( 8% ). Household deb to GDP ratio (%) Household financial debt(krw tn) 14 12 1 1,2 1, Other loan Housing loan from non-deposit financial institution Housing loan from deposit financial institution 8 8 6 4 6 2 4 India Saudi Arabia Russia Indonesia Turkey Brazil Italy China Germany France Japan Euro area Spain Malaysia US Sweden UK Korea Norway Netherlands Australia 2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 6% Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center Source: Bank of Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center
6. -., 25%. 4%. (KRW mn) Households B/S by income bracket 9 841.4 8 Assets Liabilities 7 6 5 421. 4 31.1 3 213.9 2 13.7 16. 1 84.3 57.2 35.9 13.7 Bracket 1 Bracket 2 Bracket 3 Bracket 4 Bracket 5 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 19.7 216 217 22.4 Debt service burden by income bracket (% of disposable income) 26.9 26.4 25.6 25.4 28.7 25.8 26.1 24.4 Bracket 1 Bracket 2 Bracket 3 Bracket 4 Bracket 5 Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center
, 3 25 (% YoY) House purchase price House rent(jeonse) price 2 15 1 5-5 -1 121(% YoY) 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219 8 6 4 GDP growth rate 2-2 -4 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219
11 MSCI 신흥국통화지수대비원화상대지수 (pt, 219.1.1 = 1) 13 JPY-KRW 15 12 11 1 1 95 9 9 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 8 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 USD-KRW + 1σ Ave. (pt, 21yr=1) 14 13 12 11 Korea Won, real effective value + 1σ Ave. 1, -1σ 1-1σ 9 9 8 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219 8 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219
(USD bn) 메모리반도체가격 (USD) 16 14 12 Trade Balance _ Semiconductor Trade Balance _ Total ex. semiconductor 9 8 DRAM: DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 2133/24MHz (L) NAND: TLC Flash 128Gb (R) 3. 2.8 2.6 1 7 2.4 8 6 6 2.2 2. 4 5 1.8 2 4 1.6-2 3 1.4 1.2-4 215 216 217 218 219 2 18.7 18.9 18.11 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 1.
4.. (Million barrels per day) 12 1 8 Oil demand - supply(lhs) Oil supply(rhs) Oil demand(rhs) (Million barrels per day) 15 1 6 95 4 2 9 85-2 -4 초과수요초과공급초과수요초과공급 -6 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 8 75 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
미국전략비축유주간증감 ( 백만배럴 ) (L) WTI(USD/bbl) (R) 3.2 OECD 원유재고 ( 십억배럴 ) 1.. 1. 11. 1 11 1 3. -1. 9-1. 9 2.8-2. -3. 8-2. 7-3. 6 8 7 6 2.6 2.4-4. -5. -4. 5-5. 4 5 4 2.2-6. 11.7 11.9-6. 3 18.9 18.11 19.1 19.3 19.5 3 2. 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219
1. 8. 6. Fed 금리타겟 미국채장단기금리차 (1 년 - 2 년, %p) 미국채장단기금리차 (3 년 - 2 년, %p) 4. 2.. 8.5-2. 8.1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 S&P5 index log scale (L) 미국경기동행지수 log scale (R) 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.
(pt, 21yr = 1) 3 25 미국경제리세션구간 S&P5 MSCI DM Europe Emerging Markets 2 15 1 5 1995 2 25 21 215
미국 IT 하드웨어, 소프트웨어, 지적재산권투자 (% of GDP) 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 지적재산권투자 지적재산권 _ 소프트웨어투자 IT 하드웨어투자 4.% 2.9% 1.5% 4.7% 1.9%. 1947 1955 1963 1971 1979 1987 1995 23 211 219
(% YoY) 영업이익증가율 ( 십억원 ) 자동차 3 사 2 사분기영업이익 1 8 대형주 대형주 _ 반도체제외 중소형주 14 12 +7% 실제 시장컨센서스 6 1 4 2 8 6 +16% +13% -2 4-4 2-6 183 186 189 1812 193 196P 199F 1912F 기아차현대차현대모비스
(%) 3.5 미국채 1 년금리 미국 219 년소비자물가상승률예상치 6 미국채 1 년금리 - 미국 CPI(% YoY) 미국 22 년소비자물가상승률예상치 5 3. 4 2.5 3 2 +1σ 2. 1.5 1-1 -2 Ave -1σ 1. 18.8 18.1 18.12 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8-3 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219
(%) 한국국채 1 년금리 - 한국 CPI(% YoY) 3. 2.5 한국국채 1 년금리 한국 219 년소비자물가상승률예상치 한국 22 년소비자물가상승률예상치 5 4 2. 1.5 1. 3 2 1 +1σ Ave -1σ.5-1. 18.8 18.1 18.12 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8-2 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219
(%) (USD/t oz) 1.4 미국 TIPS 1 년금리 (L) 금값선물 ( 최근월물 ) (R) 155 1.2 15 1. 145.8 14 135.6 13.4 125.2 12. 115 -.2 18.8 18.1 18.12 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 11