6 5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Korea's Export YoY(LHS) 25 1999 IT Export / Total Export 4 3 US IT Shipment YoY(RHS) 15 8 6 5 4 - -5 - - 93.4 95.4 97.4 99.4 1.4 China Taiwan Korea Malaysia Singapore Thailand Philippine Total
8 6 4 2-2 -4-8 - Sales Growth* Income Growth Labor Cost Growth** Productivity Growth** % of Households Internet Automobile P.C Telephone Cell Phone 25 1 1 Years since Invented MATURATION POST-SHAKEOUT GROWTH SHAKEOUT PRE-SHAKEOUT GROWTH INTRODUCTION
Total IT ($ Mil) 371,8 491,292 665,53 746,92 814,727 IT % of Total 5.9% 6.7% 7.6% 8.% 8.3% Hardware 1, 155,49 2,914 226,214 243,6 Software/services 75,49 111,3 185,69 213,986 245,644 Communication Hardware 23,97 3,775 46,7 49,151 51,816 Communication Services 161,57 193,758 222,298 256,74 273,761 Total Private (') 89,956 97,885 6,7 1,247 Total IT- Producing (') 3,875 4,24 5,156 5,434 IT % of Total 4.31% 4.33% 4.86% 4.93% Computer Engineers 299 622 7.6% Computer Support Specialist 429 869 7.31% 12 IT GDI CAGR IT Headcount CAGR Systems Analyst 617 1194 6.82% Database Administrators 87 155 5.95% Desktop Publishing 26 44 5.4% 8 6 4 2 Paralegals Medical Assistants Physician Assistants Semiconductor processing 136 252 66 63 2 398 98 92 Correctional Officers 4.93% 4.68% 4.3% 3.86% 383 532 3.34% Personal Care Social Services Data Processing Financial Brokers 1992~1999 746 268 79 33 1995~1999 1179 4 117 427 Social Workers 4.68% 4.34% 4.1% 3.49% 64 822 3.13% Bill Collectors 311 4 3.5%
8 3 USY-US12M(LHS) 3 6 15 2 Value/Growth(RHS) 4 1 2 5 - -2 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98-5 1-14 13 1 9 8 7 6 88.5 9.5 92.5 94.5 96.5 98.5.5 1.5
25 12 US IT Investment YoY(RHS) US IT Shipment YoY(LHS) 15 8 6 4 5-5 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2-2 6 4 3 - - -3 Semiconductor Shipment YoY Communication Shipment YoY 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1
11, Semiconductor Shipment, 9, 8, Communication Shipment 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 1,8 45 1,6 1,4 4 35 1, 1, 8 6 4 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 3 25 15 5
4. 3.5 GoldilocksEconomy Expected Inflation 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 Inflation 1. Periods of stagflation.5 97.5 97.9 98.5 99.1 99.9.5 1.5
125 1 115 1 5.2 1.5 6-1.5-1. 4 S&P YoY(LHS) -.5 3.5 1. 1.5 - Inflation Surprise(RHS) 2. - 2.5-3 3. 97.5 98.5 99.5.5 1.5
1 1 9 8 7 6 San Fransico Sacramento Nationwide Dallas Detroit Seatle.4. 1.4 Retall Sales Growth 1 Help Wanted Index (RHS) 16 (LHS) 14 12 9 8 8 6 7 6 4 2 4 8 85 9 95 1-2 -4
4 3 UNDERVALUED or Low Growth Profit Growth YoY(LHS) Earnings Yield/Y Yield(RHS) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8 -.6 - -3 OVERVALUED or High Growth 63.9 7.9 77.9 84.9.4.62 as of May 26, 1.2 91.9 98.9 2.3
Excess Reserve/M2(LHS) LOAN Growth(RHS). 15 13.18 11.16.14 9 7 5.12. 3 1-1.8-3.6-5 89 92 95 98 1 7 6 4 3 1997 1998 1999 1.5
8 6 4 - -4-6 -8 -.5 Foreigner net buy - 3M Avg. Institution net buy - 3M Avg..7.9.11 1.1 1.3 1.5 6 Foreigner net buy 4 3 Institution net buy - - 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.2.27 1.3.27 1.3.27 1.4.24 1.5.22
45 4 35 3 25 KOSPI 6 Day Volatility KOSPI Day Volatility.1 1.5
9 Semiconductor 8 7 Computer 6 4 3 S&P 96.5 97.5 98.5 99.5.5 1.5 14 13 1 1 NOW 9 8 7 S&P Value Composite / S&P Growth Composite 6 76~89 79~81 82~84 85~87 88~9 91~93 94~96 97~99
1,49 2,88 93.3% 46,8 69,7 48.9% 6,9 12, 73.9% 14,, 42.6% *LG 13, 19,3 48.8% SBS 25, 33,9 35.6% 67, 96, 43.3% 17,3 22,6 3.6% 4,8 6,8 41.4% LG 39,, 27.6% 21, 28,7 36.7%,6 13,3 25.9% 2,49 3,145 26.3% 2,88 3,53 22.6% 13,9 17,4 25.2% 13, 16, 21.2% SDI 55, 63, 14.3% CJ39 15,1 18,3 21.1% 199, 223, 12.% 4,6 5,49 19.3% 4,795 5, 8.4% 1, 1,18-1.7% KOSPI 515.2 628.42 22.% KOSDAQ 68.29 83.22 21.9%
13 125 1 115 1 5 95 KOSPI 9.12..12.24 1.1.7 1.1.21 1.2.4 1.2.18 1.3.4 1.3.18 1.4.1 1.4.15 1.4.29 1.5.13 1.5.3 Excess Return Attribution(bp) 299 1,174 Stock Selection(bp) 284 1,79 Sector Allocation(bp) 14 95 Portfolio Volatility(annualized, %) 29.19 43.43 KOSPI Volatility(annualized, %) 4.18 41.38
Material Underweight Neutral 12.5% 12.5% 76, 8, 41.2% 43, 69, 58.6% 58, 96, 64.1% Industrials Overweight Neutral 2.9% 2.9% 3,7 4,7.% LG,3 18, 75.8% 3,87 5, 34.4% Consumer Underweight Underweight 8.3% 7.3% 6,7 14,7 119.4% Cyclicals 5,7 7, 22.1% Consumer Overweight Overweight 3.5% 7.4% 19, 18,4-2.9% Non-Cyclical 21, 29, 34.9% 4, 46, 15.% Financials Neutral Neutral 18.8% 18.8% 14,9 17,4 16.8% 5,9 7,89 33.3% 27, 39,9 45.1% 23, 4,6 75.% Technology Overweight Overweight 23.3% 29.4% 28, 33,7.4% SDI 47, 63, 34.% KEC 11,7 15,4 31.6% 34,3 53, 54.5% 158, 223, 41.5% Telecom Underweight Underweight.2% 17.4% 67, 58,8-12.2% Utilies Underweight Underweight.5% 4.3% 23,6 25,3 7.2% 25,6 32,9 28.5%