03 2002. 11. 19. ( ) 1
- - I. 1... 2.... EU.. II. 1. 2. 3. 4. III. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2
- - I. 1. 2001, 20022/4 2/4 GDP EU,, 90 IT, EU 2003, GDP 3.7% (IMF) 3
2. 2003 3-4% 2002,, 20031/4 1.25% 1961,, 2003, 2002 2003 1% 2002,,,,, 2003, 20021% EU 2003 2%, 20026 GDP 3%, 2% ECB 2003, 2003, 4
II. 1. 2002,, 20021/4 2/4 2003,, 2. 2002 (flight to safety) 10 50bp, 3. 4 2003,, > > 2002, 1/4, 2/4~3/4, 5
2002, 2003, 2003 III. 1. UN, 2., 3.,, 4.,, 6
I. 1. 7
< 1-1> % 40 % 6 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 4 3 2 5 0-5 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 0 () () () : IMF 8
<1-1> : WSTS, 9
2. <1-3> 10
<1-4> <1-5> 11
<1-6> ( : %) <1-7> ( : %) 12
13
<1-10> 14
11 15
16
17
18
19
20
( : %) 21
22
<1-19> 2002 (%, ) : Bloomberg 23
24
25
<1-22>, 26
<1-23> ( :, %) 27
28
1.. 29
30 <2-1> < 2-1> 2002
. 31
32
33 2..
34.
35 <
3.. * 4 ( GDP4%, 20025% ) -, Clinton 36
< 2-2> :,,,, :,, :,,,,. 37
( : %) 38
39 4..
5936 4242 89 264 1047 649 198 290 966 15 430 681 41 186 137 60 374 263 156 153 * : / OTC 40
41.
42. 1. < 3-1> (1991 )
43 2.
44
3. 40 MSCI Volatility 1.7 35 30 25 10 Volatility 1.5 1.3 20 1.1 15 10 5 0.9 0.7 0 01-01 01-17 02-04 02-20 03-08 03-26 04-11 04-29 05-15 05-31 06-18 07-04 07-22 08-07 08-23 09-10 09-26 10-14 0.5 : Annualized Volatility, daily difference Volatility %. : KCIF 45
46
47
4. 48
49