에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 2, September 2018 : pp. 89~114 정책 일본의 CO 2 배출, 원자력에너지, 신재생에너지관계분석 *

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1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 2, September 2018 : pp. 89~114 정책 일본의 CO 2 배출, 원자력에너지, 신재생에너지관계분석 *

2 - 90 -

3 - 91 -

4 - 92 -

5 - 93 -

6 - 94 -

7 . ~

8 ln ln ln ln ln ln

9 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln

10 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln

12 < 표 1> 변수기초통계량

13 [ 그림 1] 주요변수추세 배출량 인당에너지소비량 원자력발전량 신재생에너지발전량 ln

14 ln < 표 2> 단위근검정 ln ln ln ln ln ln

15 < 표 3> ARDL- 한계검정 ln ln ln ln ln 한계검정

16 < 표 4> ARDL(1,0,0,0,0) 모형추정 ln ln ln ln ln ln

17 [ 그림 2] ARDL 모형의 CUSUM 검정과 CUSUMSQ 검정 [ 그림 3] ARDL 모형의탄소배출량예측력

18 < 표 5> ARDL 오차수정모형 ln ln ln ln ln ln

19 [ 그림 3] 단기추정모형의 CUSUM 검정과 CUSUMSQ 검정

20 < 표 6> CO 2 배출량장 단기탄력성추정

21 접수일 (2018 년 7 월 13 일 ), 수정일 (2018 년 8 월 25 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 9 월 27 일 )

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24 Iwata, H., Okada, K. and Samreth, S Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO 2 in France: the Role of Nuclear Energy. Energy Policy 38: Iwata, H., Okada, K. and Samreth, S A Note on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO 2 : a Pooled Mean Group Approach. Applied Energy 88: Jalil, A. and Mahmud, S. F Environment Kuznets Curve for CO 2 Emissions: a Cointegration Analysis for China. Energy Policy 37: Kijima, M., Nishide, K. and Ohyama, A Economic models for the environmental Kuznets curve: A survey. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34(7): Kwiatkowski, D, Phillips, P., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary Against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics 54: Lee, S., Kim, M., and Lee J Analyzing the Impact of Nuclear Power on CO 2 Emissions. Sustainability 9:1-13. Liu, X Explaining the Relationship between CO 2 Emissions and National Income - the Role of Energy Consumption. Economic Letters 87: Marques, A. C., Fuinhas, J. A. and Menegaki, A. N Renewable vs Non-renewable Electricity and the Industrial Production Nexus: Evidence from an ARDL Bounds Test Approach for Greece. Renewable Energy 96: Menyah, K. and Wolde-Rufael, Y CO 2 Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy and Economic Growth in the US. Energy Policy 38: Narayan, P. K The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests. Applied economics 37(17): Pesaran, M. H., and Shin, Y An Autoregressive Distributed-lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century. The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, ed. S. Strøm, chap. 11, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

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26 ABSTRACT This study analyzed the long-term relationship between CO 2 emissions and energy consumption in Japan using the ARDL model. The ARDL-bound test results show that there is a cointegration between Japan's CO 2 emissions, income, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and nuclear energy consumption. CO 2 emissions in Japan were determined in the long term by total energy consumption and nuclear energy consumption. Nuclear energy consumption has been shown to help reduce CO 2 emissions. However, new and renewable energy has no significant effect on reducing CO 2 emissions, because the proportion of new and renewable energy is still insignificant, and it is because the new renewable energy is not produced efficiently. It can be expected that Japan would have some difficultly in fulfillment CO 2 emission abatement unless Japan resume nuclear power generation. Key Words : ARDL, CO 2, Renewables, Nuclear energy

에너지경제연구 제12권 제2호

에너지경제연구 제12권 제2호 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 33~58 지구온난화가가정부문에너지소비량에미치는 영향분석 : 전력수요를중심으로 33 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 34 ~ 35 ~ 36 ~ 37 < 표 1> 변수들의기초통계량 ~ ~ ~ ~ 38 [ 그림 1] 로그변수들의시간에대한추세