□ 미 연준은 2008

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1 제 호 국제경제리뷰 조사국국제경제부국제종합팀유혜림조사역 (4279) 주요국의탄소배출권거래제현황및이슈 탄소배출권거래제 (ETS ; Emissions Trading Scheme) 는온실가스배출억제를위한유효한수단으로서 2005 년교토의정서발효에맞추어 EU 가처음으로도입하였으며, 현재중국, 미국및일본등세계 40 여개국에서운영중 o 한국도 월전국적으로시행예정이며, 이밖에도 15 개국가및지역에서국가또는지역단위의도입을검토중 동제도가온실가스배출억제에어느정도기여한것은사실이나일부국가는온실가스감축의무부담을회피하고자하고있고주요배출국인중국, 미국, 일본등에서는국가단위가아닌지역단위로운영됨에따라전세계적으로보면온실가스감축정책의효과가감소하고감축이행국가의비용증가, 경쟁력약화등역차별문제도상존 o 또한배출권가격이급변동함에따라온실가스감축을위한투자의불확실성을야기하는등배출권거래제가온실가스감축의효과적수단으로정착, 확산되기위해서는제도적보완도필요 o 그러나일부산업에대해서는부정적영향을배제할수없더라도여타온실가스감축수단에비해감축비용을낮출수있어동제도를도입하더라도경제성장등에미치는부정적영향은전반적으로완화될수있는것으로평가 국제사회의온실가스감축노력에따른비용부담이앞으로도불가피할것으로보이는가운데배출권거래제가감축비용을낮추고중장기적으로는저탄소형경제구조로의전환을보다원활하게할수있다는점에서동제도는전세계적으로더욱확산, 보급될전망 o 지금까지의운영경험등을토대로제도개선노력이이루어지고있고향후동제도의도입국가가늘어나면서국제배출권거래 (IETS) 가활성화될가능성이있는데다 2020 년출범예정인신기후변화체제 (New Climate Change Regime) 도동제도의정립에긍정적으로작용할전망 다만동제도의시행에따라생산비용증가부담등이큰업종등에대해서는배출권의무상할당, 온실가스저감기술개발지원등경쟁력보완을위한지원이필요 1/20

Tax), (Command & Control) 규제방식 장점 단점 온실가스감축수단간비교 간접규제 직접규제 배출권거래제 탄소세 1) 목표관리제 2) 등 수량결정 ( 시장에서가격형성 ) ( ) -

2 I 검토배경 (ETS ; Emissions Trading Scheme) * (UNFCCC, 1992 ) (1997 ) 2005 (EU) * (CO2), (CH4), (N2O), (PFC), (HFC), (SF6) 6 ( 77%, 2004 ), 세계이산화탄소배출량 1) 지표면 1) 온도상승 2) : 1) : 1) 2) 1900 : World Bank : (NCDC), o (Carbon Tax), (Command & Control) 규제방식 장점 단점 온실가스감축수단간비교 간접규제 직접규제 배출권거래제 탄소세 1) 목표관리제 2) 등 수량결정 ( 시장에서가격형성 ) ( ) - 감축목표달성의확실성 - - 국제적연계가능성 - - 중장기적기술투자유인제공 - 총량설정의임의성 - 초기할당의형평성문제 - 과도한가격변동가능성 - - : 1) 2) : (, 2010) /20

3 * *, o o, (2012 ) o, 1,,, 2015, Ⅱ 배출권거래제의도입과정및현황 1. 도입과정 o (1985 ) (1987 ), (IPCC) (1988 ) (UNCED) 154 (FCCC) ( ) UN 3 (Kyoto Protocol) ( ) o,, EU % 3/20

(CBRD; Common but Differentiated Responsibilities) *,, * ( 8% +10%, ), 1.3 2013 2 온실가스의주요배출국 1) 2) 국가별감축목표 1) : 1) 2012 : 1) 2),,, CO 2 : UNFCCC : UNFCCC, IEA o 2012.

4 (CBRD; Common but Differentiated Responsibilities) *,, * ( 8% +10%, ), 온실가스의주요배출국 1) 2) 국가별감축목표 1) : 1) 2012 : 1) 2),,, CO 2 : UNFCCC : UNFCCC, IEA o UN % EU ,500 *, EU,, 40 * (ETS), # (Joint Implementation), ## (Clean Development Mechanism), # ( ) ERU(emission reduction unit) ## CER(certified emission reduction) o EU (EU-ETS) , ( ), ( 9 ), (, ) o , ( ), ( ), (,,,,,, ), ( ) /20

5 o * (2012 ) * %, 2009 ( %, %) o 15,,,,,, 7, ( ), ( 교토의정서및배출권거래제현황 교토의정서감축목표 1) (%) 온실가스 2) (2012) 배출권거래제 3) 서명비준 배출량 ( 백만톤 ) EU(28개국 ) O O , 노르웨이 O O 리히텐슈타인 O O 비중 (%) 시행도입시기 O 할당량 ( 백만톤 ) 단위 ,084 아이슬란드 O O X 스위스 O O O 일본 4) O O -6 9) 1, O 러시아 O O 0 9) 2, X 호주 O O X 10) 뉴질랜드 O O 0 9) O 우크라이나 O O X 모나코 O O X 미국 5) O X -7-6, O 캐나다 6) O O O 중국 7) O O 8, O ,240 카자흐스탄 8) O O O 한국 7) O O O ) 169 : 1) ), CO 2, 3) 2013 ( 2014, 2015 ) 4) 5) 9, 2009, ) ) 8) 2 ( ) 9) 2 (2011 ) 10) ) : UNFCCC, World Bank, IEA o, (emissions coverage ; ) 2 (ICAP, 2014) 5/20

6 세계배출권거래시장규모 배출권거래제의적용비율 : Bloomberg New Energy Finance : World Bank 2. 주요국별현황 EU ( 유럽연합 : EU-ETS 3 기진입 ) EU, % 2005 o 79% (, ) % EU 의온실가스배출량 EU 의부문별온실가스배출량증감률 1) : UNFCCC, IMF : 1) , ( ) 2012 : UNFCCC EU 2005 (EU-ETS) o EU 31 (28,, 3 ), * 45% 6/20

7 * , o ( ) (NAP ; National Allocation Plan) EU,,, % % (N2O) (PFC) % *, 2013,, *,, ICAO % 2 10% 3 100% EU-ETS 의단계별운영현황 제 1 기 ( 시범운영 ) 제 2 기제 3 기 기간 적용부문, 1) 1),, (2012 ) 감축목표 1) % 배출권평균가격 유상할당비율 / / 0.12% ( 5% ) / / 3.07% ( 10% ), (,, ), % - 100%, 20% 2), 15% 초과배출시벌금 40 / 100 / 100 / 3) 할당방식 (NAP) EU : 1),,,,,, 2) % % 3) 100 / : European Commission, EEA 7/20

8 ( 미국 : RGGI 감축목표량상향조정 ) 2000 *, 2 * % %, % (EIA) o %, % 미국의온실가스배출량미국의부문별온실가스배출량증감률 1) : UNFCCC, IMF : 1) ( ) 2012 : UNFCCC 20% (2012 ), (2001 ) o * RGGI(Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) 168 (25MWh ), 95%, 22% *,,,,,,,, % %, (2012 ) * 2012 RGGI (RGGI program review) * %, ,200 (4.9 ) ,000 (16 ) ( ) % % % o /20

(EPA) 2010.1 (Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program) * * 85 90% 8 o 2013.9 (Carbon Pollution Standard) 2014.

9 (EPA) (Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program) * * 85 90% 8 o (Carbon Pollution Standard) % (Clean Power Plan) ( 중국 : 전국단위배출권거래제검토중 ) *, 2000 * GDP (energy intensity) 40%, 20%, 75% o 3/4 82% (2011 ) 98% 중국의이산화탄소배출량중국의부문별이산화탄소배출량비중 1) : World Bank, IMF : 1) 2005 : UNFCCC 12 5 ( ), o,, % % % o 2015 (carbon intensity, GDP CO 2 ) % ( % ), 8 10% 9/20

10 o 2015 GDP 2010 (0.27koe/ ) 16% * ** 18%, *,,, 20% **,,,, o % ,000 ( 2% ) * * 2 3, ( GDP 1/4, 16% ), 2016 o 2013,,, 5, 2014, * % , EU(20.8, 2013 ) * o ( ), 중국의배출권거래제시범운영현황 선전상하이베이징광둥성톈진후베이성충칭 도입시기 탄소집약도감축목표 1) -21% -21% -18% -19.5% -19% 17% -17% 배출량 2) ( 백만톤 ) 대상업체수 초기할당량 ( 백만톤 ) 적용비율 3) 38% 50% 50% 42% 60% 35% 35 40% 거래량 4) ( 천톤 ) 평균가격 ( 위안 ) 4) 5) [12.4] 31.4 [5.2] 52.6 [8.7] 61.8 [10.2] 34.7 [5.7] 24.7 [4.1] : 1) ) ) 4) ) [ ] : World Bank - 10/20

11 ( 일본 : 도시형배출권거래제운영 ),, EU,, 4%, 1990 o 90% 일본의온실가스배출량일본의부문별온실가스배출량증감률 1) : UNFCCC, IMF : 1) , ( ) 2012 : UNFCCC 1 ( ) (1990-6%) 2 ( ) 2011, * * 19 ( ) %, % 2011 o (JVETS ; Japanese Voluntary ETS) o ( ) ( ) 1 ( ) * 6 8%, 2 ( ) 15% 1400,, CO 2 ( 18% ) * (1200 ) /20

12 ( 한국 : 전국단위의배출권거래제출범예정 ) 7, 8 ( %, CO 2 ) OECD ( ) 한국의온실가스배출량한국의부문별온실가스배출량증감률 1) : : 1) , ( ) 2011 : 1 2, ( % ) ( ) * * , (KRX) o ( ),,,, ( 12.5, 2.5 ) 526, 66% o 5 (, 3 ),,, o 1 100% 2 계획기간별운영계획 제 1 기제 2 기제 3 기 기간 주요목표, 할당 - 100% - (GF ; grandfathering) 1) - 97% - (BM ; benchmarking) - (10% ) - : 1),, ( ) (BM ) : 12/20

13 * * o 2021 ( ) Ⅲ 주요이슈및경제적영향 1. 주요이슈,,,,, ( 주요배출국의불참 ) o 2012,,, 2013 o ( 1.5 ) o *, *,,,,, * (carbon leakage) * 13/20

14 o OECD(2009) EU % * %, % 2% * o (market shifting) (activity shifting) ( 적정배출권총량의결정 ) (cap) o (+), (-), (+),, * * EU (< > EU ), RGGI (2012 ) ETS 2012, o * * o EU EU-ETS 4 ( ) (market stability reserve) o 1 ( ) 5% 14/20

< 참고 > EU 의배출권가격추이와변동요인 1 (2005 07 ) 2 (2008 12 ) 2007 0.

15 < 참고 > EU 의배출권가격추이와변동요인 1 ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) o o EUA(European Union Allowance, ) CER( ) EUA EU-ETS 배출권거래가격및수급여건 : Bloomberg New Energy Finance : Credit Suisse 3 ( ) ( 1.74%), * (back loading), (, ) *, ( 할당방식의결정 ) *, *, 15/20

16 o EU-ETS 1 2, 1, (GF ; grandfathering), * (BM ; benchmarking) * EU-ETS 3 BM o, ( : ) o * * EU-ETS 1 (UK Phase 1 Draft, 2004) * #, # 2010, 경제적영향,,, ( 성장에미치는영향 ) 16/20

17 o EC(2005) EU (68 ) (29 37 ) 2020 CO 2 BAU * %, (3,200 ) (, ) * BAU(Business As Usual) % (,,, ) o GDP * *, GDP KIEP(2010) 2020 GDP 0.64%, 1.22%, EU 1.21%, 1.25% 0.09%, 0.09%, EU 0.12%, 0.20%, %p GDP ( ) GRDP BAU % (Calfornia EPA, 2010), GDP BAU 0.01% (, ) *, BAU, GDP EC(2008) 2020 GDP 0.5% 0.35% 17/20

18 ( 산업별영향 ),,, KIEP(2010) ( 1) ( 2), ( 2) o EU,,,,,, o, * * EU % (HSBC), 5 2 (LSE) 배출권거래제시행시산업별영향 1) : 1) EU, BAU ( ), ( 1) ( 2) : ECORYS(2009), ( ), KIEP(2010) 18/20

19 Ⅳ 종합및전망 2005 EU,, 40, o *,,, * 2012,, ( ) o, o, o EU-ETS 10, o 13 5 ( ) (IETS) o 2020 (New Climate Change Regime) * * , 19/20

20 , o, o o < 참고자료 >,, , :, KIEP 12-07, ,, ,, , EU ETS, KERI Zoom-In 09-02, ,, KERI 10-12, ,, 13-28, , 3, SERI 429, 日本環境省, 国内排出量取引制度の課題整理報告書, 国内排出量取引制度の課題整理に関する検討会, 平成 24 年 3 月 ( ) Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Phoenix from the ashes value of the world s carbon markets to rise again in 2014, California Environmental Protection Agency, Proposed Regulation to Implement the California Cap-and-Trade Program, pp.viii-1 19, Appendix N., 2010 ECORYS Netherlands BV, Impact of the Post-2012 Expansion of the EU Emission Trading Scheme(A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment), 2009 European Commission, EU Action against Climate Change: EU emission trading an open scheme promoting global innovation, 2005, Package of Implementation measures for the EU s objectives on climate change and renewable energy for 2020, , The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), International Carbon Action Partnership(ICAP), ICAP Status Report 2014, OECD, The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation: Policies and Options for Global Action beyond 2012, 2009 The World Bank, Mapping Carbon Pricing Initiatives, , State and Trends of Carbon Pricing, UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, /20

EU탄소배출거래제보고_ hwp

EU탄소배출거래제보고_ hwp 2011. 10. 28 - 2 - Ⅰ. EU ㅇ EU (Directorate-General Environment) EU,, (Directorate-General Climate Action), (ETS) ㅇ EU 2008 (Climate Change & Energy Package), 2011 8 2050 (A Roadmap for moving to a competitive