규재개혁시리즈 13-03 2013. 07. 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출사례분석
목 차 항공운송산업의규제완화가세계적인조류 요 약 < 요약 >. 검토배경 1. 주요국의항공운송산업의규제완화 2 1. 세계항공운송산업의규제완화 2 2. 미국항공운송산업의규제완화 6 3. EU 항공운송산업의규제완화 14. 우리나라항공운송산업의규제완화 24 1. 규제현황 24 2. 추가적인규제완화의필요성 26 3. 규제완화의내용 27 4. 규제완화의효과 30. 보완과제및시사점 37 < 참고문헌 > 41, 1970-1978 1992, 2013 6 110 - EU 1988 1997 3, - 1980 2009 *, 5 미국은규제완화직후 1978부터 1992년까지 168개신규항공사가시장에진입했으며규제완화이전대비항공수요와공급이 2배성장 1977 1986 (RPK) 1) 3,000 km 2.5 (ASK) 2) 4,000 km 2 1979 1992 (RPK) 1,000 km 2 (ASK) 1,400 km 2 29% ( 80 96), 1970 10% 1990 18% 이자료는본회규제개혁팀박중배선임조사역이작성한것입니다. 내용과관련하여의견이나문의사항이있으시면아래로연락하여주시기바랍니다. TEL : 02-3771-0417 FAX : 02-6234-5292 E-mail : parkjungbae@fki.or.kr EU는역내복수노선경쟁과미국대형항공사의진출로인해항공공급이증가하고항공운임이하락하여항공수요증가 1) RPK(Revenue Per Kilometer): 2) ASK(Available Seat Kilometers):
요 약 요 약 (ASK) 36.2% ( 98 02), 17%( 04 08) (RPK) 35.2% ( 98 02 ) 20% ( 04 08) 2005 2012 8,000-2005 2012 2,000, 8 6,000 한국은신규항공사의출현으로국내선운임이 20% 하락했고, 신 구항공사간경쟁과상호보완으로국제선시장이 27% 성장 ( 09 11) 2005 2012, 80% KTX, -,, 35%, 27%, 25% ( 08 12) 27% ( 09 11) 서비스산업의진입규제완화를통한고용창출과경제성장모색필요, - - 10 9 10 2 항공운송산업의규제완화는신규고용창출에기여 30-1975 30 2010 66 2-1995 2004 10 9,000 EU 1990 2004 15 140 - - 1995 2004 19,000
검토배경 주요국의항공운송산업규제완화 새정부의핵심국정과제인일자리창출은규제완화가관건 항공운송산업은규제완화를통한고용창출의좋은사례 1978 2 3 2010 2-1975 30 2010 66 2-1995 2004 10 9,000 EU 1980 3 1990 2004 15 140-1995 2004 17,000 8,000-5 2005 2012 2,000 6,000 이에항공운송산업규제완화의고용창출효과와시사점, 보완과제등을모색코자함 1. 1) 세계항공운송산업은각국의엄격한규제와지원하에성장 - 3) 4) - -,, 각종규제들로인해항공운송기업의경쟁력저하초래 1978,, 3) 1919 1944 (). (),, 1947 4 43. 4) 1946 2 11,. (Agreement between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland relating to Air Services between their Respective Territories). ㆍ. 1,. 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 1 2 규제의역설시리즈 1
2) 국내적으로는경쟁적인시장체제로전환 -,, -, 국제적으로는국가간, 지역간, 다자간 항공자유화 추진 1980 3, 2008-2008 ASEAN 10 2015 3) (1) 저비용항공사의시장진입촉진 - -, IT - - 9.11 Hub & Spoke 5), Point-To-Point 6) 항공운송산업자체가확대되고항공운송산업의체질개선에기여 - - - - (2) 규제완화와저비용항공사진입으로항공운임이 2배이상하락 1 1970 2.5 2000 1 7) - 1975 2.1 1985 1.3 38% 5) 6) Non-Stop 7) Air Transport Action Group(2012), Benefits beyond borders report, p.13 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 3 4 규제의역설시리즈 1
- 1992 1.3 2002 1 < > < > : Airbus(2012), Global Market forecast 2012-2031, p.46 : Air Transport Action Group(2012), Benefits beyond borders report, p.13 1990 17,307 2010 23,844 38% 10) 항공수요가 5배성장하고항공기공급량도 38% 증가 1978 (RPK) 8) 1 km 2011 5 km 5 9) - 1978 (RPK) 1 km 1998 3 km 3-2000 2011 53% 2. 1) 미국은철저히자국의항공운송산업에대한보호주의정책채택 - (CAB) 11),,,,, * CAB 1938 40 79 12) - 1938 1975 238 5 13) 8) RPK(Revenue Per Kilometer): 9) Airbus(2012), Global Market forecast 2012-2031, p.46 10) Air Transport Action Group(2012), Aviation_Benefits beyond borders report_summary, p.8 11) CAB(Civil Aeronautics Board) 12) (2011), :, p.24 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 5 6 규제의역설시리즈 1
독점적항공시장의경쟁력저하로경쟁체제도입의필요성대두,,,, 2) 1977년항공화물을시작으로국내선에대한단계적규제완화시행 1977 1978 1983 1985 (Department of Transportation) CAB 국제항공운송의경쟁을촉진을위해국제선인가및운임규제완화 1980 - < > - (Air Cargo - Deregulation Act -, 1977) -,, - - (Airline Deregulation - Act 1978.10) - (CAB) - - (International Air -, Transportation Competition Act -, 1980.2) : (2008),, p.40 경쟁력을갖춘항공사들의국제시장진출을위해항공자유화추진 1992 (Open Sky Policy) 14) - 1993 EU EU, - 1995, 2013 6 EU 110 13) Robert M. Hardaway(1986), The FAA Buy-Sell Slot Rule: Airline Deregulation at the Crossroads, J. Air L. & Comm., Vol.52, p.11 14),,,,,. 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 7 8 규제의역설시리즈 1
< > 1992 Netherlands 2004 Indonesia 3 1995 Belgium 8 2005 India 6 1996 Germany, Jordan 2006 Cameroon 3 1997 Singapore 12 2007 United Kingdom 13 1998 Korea 5 2008 Australia 4 1999 U.A.E. 4 2010 Japan 6 2000 Turkey 11 2011 Brazil 3 2001 France 4 2012 Yemen 4 2002 Uganda 3 2013 Guyana 2003 Tonga, Albania - : (www.state.gov) 규제완화이후 10년간국내선수요와공급이 2배이상성장 1977 (RPK) 15) 2,000 km 1986 5,000 km 2.5 1977 (ASK) 16) 4,000 km 1986 8,000 km 10 2-1979 (ASK) 12%, 1980 13%, 2 1,000 km < > 3) (1) 진입규제완화로 14 년간 168 개의신규항공사시장진입 1978 16, 1992 14 168-1979 1985 7 118 < > : (2012),, p.16 규제완화이후 10년간국제선수요와공급도 2배성장 1979 (RPK) 900 km 1992 1,900 km 2 17) 1977 (ASK) 1,700 km 1992 3,100 km 2 18) - 1979 (ASK) 14% 1983 : Airline for America (www.airlines.org) 15) RPK(Revenue Per Kilometer): 16) ASK(Available Seat Kilometers): 17) (2012),, p.16 18) (2012),, p.16 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 9 10 규제의역설시리즈 1
< > (2) 항공사간인수합병을통한항공운송시장의체질개선 - 1979 1985 118 99 * Braniff, Midway, Pan Am, Eastern, America West, Continental, TWA, United Air, US Air : (2012),, p.16 < > 항공운임하락으로인해항공기가주요교통수단으로성장 1980 19) 590 1996 400 47% 1970 10% 1990 18%, < > < > : Airline for America (www.airlines.org) 규모의경제와범위의경제를바탕으로우월한경쟁력을갖춘거대항공사출현 1977 American airline 5 46.1%, 1992 5 75.8% 5 29.7%p : (2012),, p.16, P.20-19) : / 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 11 12 규제의역설시리즈 1
< > 3. EU 1) 유럽의항공운송시장은대부분 1 국 1 항공사의독점적시장체제유지 : (2012),, p17 (3) 신규항공사진출과항공시장확대로약 30만명의신규고용창출 1975 30 2010 66 2-1978 2 3 20) 1992 2010 12-1995 2004 10 9,000 21) < > - 1987 988 48-1987 988 88 22), 50 50 미국항공정책에대한전략적대응을위해단일항공시장필요성대두 1970 1990 -,, - - Hub-and-spoke 23) : NERA Economic Consulting(2008), The Impact of International Air Transport Liberalization on Employment, p.12 Oxford Economics(2008), Economic benefits from Air Transport in the US, p.16 20) (2008),, p45 21) InterVISTAS-ga²(2006), The Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalizatio, p14 22) (beyond right) 3 23) Hub-and-spoke 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 13 14 규제의역설시리즈 1
- 1982 12% 1996 58.5% < > - -, (Cabotage) 24) 2) 1988년부터 1997년까지 3단계에걸쳐점진적항공자유화추진 1988 1 1 3, 4 25) : (2012),, p.17 - < > 1 1992.10.14 2 1995.03.01 3 1995.03.24 4 1995.04.26 5 1995.04.26 6 1995.04.26 7 1995.06.06-25 Double tracking * 2 1992 26% 1994 36% 19% 25% 26) 1990 11 1 5 1992 6 Cabotage 1993 1 1, 1997 : (www.state.gov) -,,, 24) 25) 3 (set-down right), 4 (bring-back right) 26) (Civil Aviation Authority) 1, 2 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 15 16 규제의역설시리즈 1
< > 87 Package Ⅰ Package Ⅱ Package Ⅲ 88.01~90.10 90.10~92.12 93.01~97.03 3/4 50/50 55/45 60/40 60/40 75/25 5 Cabotage : (2008),, p.42 미국과의대등한항공자유화협상과전략적제휴 EU - 2003 EU EU - 2003 10 EU- - EU 49% EU - Lufthansa United Airlines, - British Airways US Air, 3) (1) 단일항공시장형성을통해세계항공시장의양대산맥으로성장 2010 (RPK) 1 3km 1 4km 유럽내크고작은항공사간인수 합병을통해대내외경쟁력확보 1990 1-1 <EU > KLM() (2004) Air France( ) Alitalia() 25% (2009) Alitalia() Air One() (2009) Swiss International( ) (2005) Austrain( ) 90% (2009) Luftnansa() BMI() (2009) Brussels( ) 45% EC (2009) British AW() Iberia( ) (2010) : (2011),, p.55-1993 1995 80, 60 저비용항공사의항공시장에진입으로기존항공사와경쟁체제구축 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 17 18 규제의역설시리즈 1
<EU > Ryanair(1985), EasyJet(1995), bmibaby, Flybe(2002), Jet2(2003) Air Berlin(1979), Germanwings(2002), Wizz Air(2004), Hapag-Lloyd Express(2004) Sterling Airway(Denmark, 1999), Norwegian Air Shuttle(Norway, 2002), Kulla fly Air(Sweden, 2003), Transavia Air(Netherlands, 2003), Itali Airlines(Itali, 2003), Virgin Express(Belgium, 2007), : ELFAA - 1992, 2003 -, 2 2003 EU 18% 2010 45% 7 27% <EU > - (ASK) 90 94 27.5%, 94 98 34.9%, 98 02 36.2% <EU 5 (ASK) > :InterVISTAS-ga²(2006), Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalization, p.32 2004 (ASK) 8,800 km 2008 1 km 17% <EU (ASK) (2004~2012)> : Airbus(2012), Global Market forecast 2012-2031, p.81 (2) 3단계의항공자유화를통해항공공급의지속적증가 : Association of European Airlines (www.aea.be) 신 구항공사간경쟁을통한항공운임하락 1997 2002 5 1%, 2.3% 2003 8%, 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 19 20 규제의역설시리즈 1
12% <EU > <EU (RPK) (2004~2012)> : Association of European Airlines (www.aea.be) : (2012),, p.24 지속적인항공수요증가와미국에대한경쟁력향상 3 - (RPK) 90 94 23.6%, 94 98 42%, 98 02 35.2% <EU 5 (RPK) >, 90 94 20.4%, 94 98 37.8%, 98 02 40.9% 27) 1996 (RPK) 58.5% 2003 28.6% 2010 28) - 1996 (RPK) 6,000 km 2010 13,000 km 2 < EU > :InterVISTAS-ga²(2006), Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalizatio, p.32 : (2012),, p.12-2004 (RPK) 6,600 km 2008 7,900 km 20% 27) InterVISTAS-ga²(2006), The Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalizatio, p.32 28) (2012),, p.25 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 21 22 규제의역설시리즈 1
(3) EU 전체적으로 패키지 이후 1995년부터 2004년까지 140만명의신규고용창출 1993 1997 1995 2004 10 140-1995 2004 10 17,000 29) - UAE 1986 2004 3,000 30) 우리나라항공운송산업의규제완화동향 1. 항공운송산업초기에보호주의적항공정책아래단일항공사체제유지 1988 - (KNA) 1948-1969 KNA, 복수민항정책시행과항공운송시장의분리관리체제도입 1988 1990 1994 -,, 29) InterVISTAS-ga²(2006), The Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalizatio, p.17 30) InterVISTAS-ga²(2006), The Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalizatio, p.17 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 23 24 규제의역설시리즈 1
<1990 1994 > 1990 1994 : :,,,, : 2, 1, : : 21 15 : 18 3,,,, : (2010),, p.110 1990 년이후항공운송산업의가격규제와진입규제를일부완화 1991, 1999, 2000 년항공사의국제경쟁력강화를위한항공자유화적극추진 3 4 5 31) 3 party code shareing 32) 2. 국내선수요감소와국내선적자누적으로인한항공운송산업의경쟁 력저하를개선하기위한진입규제완화의필요성대두 KTX - * 2003 2001 21%, 62%, - 46% *,,, 2 < > (: ) 2001 2003 (%) 1,509,794 1,195,682-21 231,825 86,976-62 65,067-100 747,641 405,384-46 86,293-100 73,491-100 485,850-100 : (2006),, p.41 - KTX * 2004 KTX * KTX 17%() ~ 66%(), 25%() ~ 82%() 31) 3 : (set-down right) 4 : (bring-back right) 5 : 3 (beyond right) 32) 3 : 3 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 25 26 규제의역설시리즈 1
< > (:, ) (2004.3) 2,558 729 833 (2004.12) 1,884 605 232 (%) -26-17 -66 (2004.3) 416,933 94,049 106,101 (2004.12) 282,981 70,740 19,082 (%) -32-25 -82 : (2006),, p.42 - * 400km * B737 340km 75% 33) - 02 1,496, 491 34) - KTX 3. 미국과여객 화물에대한전면적항공자유화협정체결 ( 98) 3,4,5-3 33) (2006),, p.39 34) (2006),, p.39 - - 중국과단계적항공자유화에합의 ( 06), - 1 1 10 1, 11 ~14 2, 15 3, 1 1 2010 일본과제한적항공자유화에합의 ( 07) 3,4-3 - 5 -, 항공산업의면허체계개편및신규항공사의국제선취항기회확대 ( 09) - - - 5 200 3 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 27 28 규제의역설시리즈 1
150-1 1 *,, <2009 >,,, ( ) 1 50 () 5 3 200 150 1 1, 6 2 : (2010),, p.9 27 개국과항공자유화협정체결및국제선약 300 개로확대 1986 2012 12 27, 38-1998 150 2008 300 2 3 < > 4. 1) 5 저비용항공사의시장진입으로경쟁적시장체제전환 2003 2005 2006 2008,,,, 기존항공사와신규항공사간의경쟁으로국내선항공운임 20% 하락 1997 2004 35) 7.9% 36) 2005 2012 6 2009-80%, 70% : (2009.4 ) < > - 73,400 84,400 73,400 84,400 57,900 66,900 58,800 67,600 58,800 67,600 (: ) : (2010),, p9 35) 1 36) (2011),, p.11 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 29 30 규제의역설시리즈 1
위축된국내선시장회복과지방공황활성화기여 < > 2000 KTX 2003 2005 19% 2008,, 2012 2,200 - KTX < > : - (www.airportal.co.kr) 2) 규제완화와인천공항허브화로인한국제선수요지속증가 1989 : - (www.airportal.co.kr) 2008-2012 1,323 10 2 2015 4.7% < > - 08 12 1,400 1,900 35%, 1,200 1,800 49%, 27%, 25% : (2012),, p.35 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 31 32 규제의역설시리즈 1
2005 600 2012 1,000-2007 360 2012 600 74%, 2007 330 2012 580 76% < > : - (www.airportal.co.kr) - 4,400 2017 3 6,200 제주항공등 5 개저비용항공사의국제선진출확대와수익성개선 2009-2010 7,,, 4 < > - - - 4 - - - 5 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 14 3 6-4 (2 21 ) - - 2 (3 18 ) 4 - ( ) - - 3 - - - 5 - - (7 45 ) 3 - - 4 - (9 63 ) 2 (10 43 ) : ( 2013.1.22.) - 2010 2012 145 39-2011 139, 2013 4 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 33 34 규제의역설시리즈 1
< > (: ) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 545 878 1,575 2,577 3,412-212 -272-61 139 21 102 609 1,160 1,703 2,475-103 -99 26 69 145 59 721 1,208 1,776 2,208-87 -83 37 21 39 444 1,105 1,216 1,964-157 -55-239 -181 ) 2011 10 2 : 27% ( 09 11) - - * 2011 16, 2012 10 2011 3, 2012 9 2011 4,200 2009 27% - 2009 2011 18%, 24%, 10 < > : - (www.airportal.co.kr) 3) 신규항공사진출과항공운송시장확대로약 8 천명의신규고용창출 2005 22,000 2012 28,000 6,000 (27%), 2012 2,000 (9%) < > (:, %) 2005 2012 14,942 18,374 23% 7,117 9,595 35% 22,059 27,969 27% 751 307 383 352 324 2,117 22,059 30,086 36% : ( 2013.1.22) 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 35 36 규제의역설시리즈 1
보완과제및시사점 - 17, 7 ( ) * 1. 항공자유화확대를통한항공운송시장의지속적성장기반구축필요 - - EU ASEAN - -EU 233 1,300 37) - -ASEAN 2015 2,500 9,000 38) 항공운송산업활성화를위한규제완화및정부지원체계필요 23 -, 39 * 1 //// 130-12 14 (2%) (0.3%) * 747( 2,500 ) 50-30% - ( 16 ) 1 5 - Malaysia Kuala-Lumpur : 5 100%,, - -, - 19 37) (2011),, p.18 38) (2010), -ASEAN, p.75 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 37 38 규제의역설시리즈 1
< > 23, 2. 규제완화가고용창출의지름길 (17, 7 ), 1 5 - -, - - - (, ) (,,, ) 10% 0.44% 0.48% * 10% 75,000-10% 0.74% 0.46% * 10% 14,000-10 9 10 2 41) - 2020 8 5 75,000 42) < > (:, ) 2011 2020 48,000 102,00 11,165 75,122 5,900 10,900 1,434 8,515 : (2011),, p.4 (2013),, p.27, p.34 ) 1. : 5% 2. : 5% 100 서비스산업의진입규제완화를통한고용창출과경제성장도모 1,121 50.2%(563 ) 39) 40) 39) (2013), (KDI KIET ), p.22 40) (2013), (KDI KIET ), p.22 41) (2011),, p.4 42) (2013),, p.27, p.34 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 39 40 규제의역설시리즈 1
참고문헌 (2008), (2013), (2013), 18.8%, (2011), (2009),, (2010),, NICE (2012), -, (2010),, () (2005), :,, () (2008),, 12 2 (2006),,, () (2010), -ASEAN, (2013), (2011), :, () Air Transport Action Group(2012), Aviation_Benefits Beyond Borders Airbus(2012), Global Market forecast 2012-2031 A4A(Airline for America)(2003), 2003 The Economic Report InterVISTAS-ga² Consulting, Inc.(2006), The Economic Impact of Air Service Liberalization NERA Economic Consulting(2008), The Impact of International Air Transport Liberalization on Employment Oxford Economics(2011), Economic Benefits from Air Transport in the US Oxford Economics(2011), Economic Benefits from Air Transport in the EU Oxford Economics(2011), Economic Benefits from Air Transport in Republic of Korea (2005), :, () (2011),, () (2012), (2011),, () (2005), EU,, 2005 2 항공운송산업의규제완화에따른고용창출효과 41 42 규제의역설시리즈 1