BUY ( I ) TP : 5,7 (368): VAN Analyst 377-3547 seuoh@myasset.com 26 3.2% 3 6. 29.9% 2 26 414, 22 26 23.5%. 26 PG 14, PG 22 (26 33.5%), 15( 3.9%) 2 1 27 17.5%, 16.1% 615, 63 5,7, Buy Stock Information ( :, %, ) (): 1, : 42.7% : - 6: 68 : 14.32% 52 /: 4,4 / 2,865 Source: Earnings Estimate ( :,, %, ) (5/1) 3,845 12 EPS PER EV/ EBITDA 5 25A 443 19.4 43 5 37 388 17.4 5. 1.3 22.4 5 26A 524 18.1 54 59 43 447 15.4 7.8 3.1 22.1 385 27E 615 17.5 63 68 5 497 11.2 7.7 3. 21.9 BPS 2,62 28E 717 16.4 73 79 57 574 15.4 6.7 2.4 21.7 56.% 29E 84 17.2 85 92 67 673 17.3 5.7 1.9 21.8 :, 26.12, Source: ROE Page 1.
Contents (368): VAN Buy, 5,7 1), 2) PG(Payment Gateway, PG). 3) 1, 4). 5,7. RIM(Residual Income Valuation Model, ), Cost of Equity( ) 11.5%(Risk-Free Rate, Beta, Market Risk Premium 5.2%,.79, 8.18% ). 5,7 27 EPS P/E 11.5x, Universe(,, 5/9) P/E 19.1x. 1. 3.2% 26 3.2% 3 6. (, ) 23.3%,. ( 1 ). 1) (YoY +38%), 2),,. 3) On-line ( 1.6% ) 9.8%. 29.9% 2, New Growth engine. Source:, Page 2.
(368): VAN 2. 26 414. 15.4%, 22 26 23.5%. 27 2 RBSI( ),,,, 1, 117. PG. ( 2, 3 ) PG, KCP,, KS-NET, 34% 1. 26 PG 14, PG. RBSI ~ 2, 1, 1. RBSI = [( )/]*1+1 () 45 36 27 18 32.2% 33.6% YoY 14.1% 15.4% 4% 3% 2% RBSI 16 131 12 112 99 9 93 11 8 87 87 75 9 1% 4 22 23 24 25 26 % 26.2 3 4 27.1 2 Source:, Source:, Page 3.
(368): VAN 3. 22, 26 15 ( 33.5%). 15. 3.9%(5/1 ),. 2 1. () 5 () () () 16 4 3 2 1 12 8 4 Page 4. 27 17.5%(YoY) 615 22 23 24 25 26 Source:, 27 27 17.5% 615. 1) 16.7% 84, 2) 17.5% 515. 3) Web PG 22.% 16. ( 5 ) 27 1 16.5% 139. 1) 21.8%, 2) PG 2.% 3. 2.1%,.
(368): VAN 27 16.1% 63 16.1% 63. 1.2%. 1), 2) Promotion Fee. ( 6 ) 27 1 5.7%, 153.% 18. 7.9%p 12.9%. 1) 26 4, 2) 26 4. () 8 () () 12% () 8 () () 72% 6 9% 6 69% 4 6% 4 66% 2 3% 2 63% 23 24 25 26 27E % 23 24 25 26 27E 6% Source:, Source:, Page 5.
(368): VAN 1. ( : ) 26 27E 28E 29E 27E 28E 29E 524 615 717 84 17.5% 16.4% 17.2% 72 84 94 13 16.7% 11.7% 9.5% 438 515 585 645 17.5% 13.6% 1.3% 13 16 38 92 22.% 129.6% 142.7% 54 63 73 85 16.1% 15.9% 17.3% 59 68 79 92 15.6% 16.2% 17.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% -.1%p.%p.%p 11.2% 11.% 11.% 11.% -.2%p.%p.%p Source :, 2. ( : ) 6.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 7.1Q(P) QoQ YoY 12 13 132 142 139-2.1% 16.5% 18 17 14 23 18-2.% 4.7% 97 19 115 117 118 1.% 21.8% 5 3 3 2 3 2.% -42.6% 17 17 13 7 18 153.% 5.7% 21 17 14 7 19 17.6% -6.5% 14.3% 13.% 9.8% 5.% 12.9% 7.9%p -1.3%p 17.2% 13.% 1.6% 5.% 13.8% 8.8%p -3.4%p Source :, Page 6.
(368): VAN <APPENDIX>. VAN 1988 VAN(Value Added Network),, PG. 1) 84%,,., 8 7 15. 2), 14%. () 26 12 18, 4 3,5. 3) PG Web. PG 3%,. 26 26.1% 13 5 21 26 32.1%. ( 8 ) () 16 12 8 YoY 13.5 9% 6% 4 3.3 3% 21 22 23 24 25 26 % Source:, Page 7. Source:,
21.3% (368): VAN. VAN, 25 5%.,,,,. VAN,. 1), 2).,. ( 9 ) 26 957 21.3% 23., 17.9% 862, 68.2% 9. ( 1, 11 ) 25% 2% 1% 1% 21.1% 18.5% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% 5.2% 5.7% 9.% 9.1% KICC KSNET FDIK NICE KFTC KIS KOVAN NCVAN KOCES SMARTRO Source:, -7.2% -12.3% -1.3% -15.2% Page 8.
(368): VAN Source:, VAN 13.1% 4. VAN Source:, VAN 1, 4 64%.,, FDIK, 26 12.7%p 13.1% 4. ( 12 ) Page 9. VAN 1, 2, 26 12.4%p,.2%p 18.1%, 16.8%, 3 FDIK 15.9%. 1. VAN 3 ( )..7%p 6.8%, 1.2%p 5.9%. ( 13 )
(368): VAN Source:, 1.5%p 1% 1% 1.2%p 1.%p.7%p.7%p.5%p.%p -.5%p -1.%p -.2%p -.1%p -.2%p KICC KSNET FDIK NICE SMARTRO KFTC KIS KOVAN KOCES NCVAN -.3%p -.3%p -.5%p -1.%p -1.5%p Source:, Page 1.
(368): VAN () 7, 6, 5, 4, : 26.7.5 BUY 6, 26.11.27 BUY 6, 27.5.11 BUY 5,7 3, 2, 1, 5-3-3 5-7-3 5-11-3 6-3-3 6-7-3 6-11-3 7-3-3 Source : Source: Page 11.
(368): VAN (368) : (:,,, %) 25 26 27E 28E 29E 25 26 27E 28E 29E 443 524 615 717 84 195 212 25 287 333 141 169 198 232 272 97 96 117 137 16 98 115 136 159 187 6 82 95 111 13 22 22 22 21 22 43 54 63 73 85 82 115 118 126 135 17 32 36 43 53 9 8 8 1 12 63 79 79 79 79 3 5 5 6 8 276 327 368 413 468 87 16 19 112 115 2 3 3 4 5 39 4 42 43 44 9 12 14 17 2 5 59 68 79 92 5 59 68 79 92 96 117 123 129 135 13 16 18 21 25 5 5 5 5 5 37 43 5 57 67 54 54 54 54 54 79 18 143 185 237 EBIT(adjusted) 47 54 62 72 85-3 -2-2 -5-8 EBITDA 66 75 83 93 15 181 21 245 284 333 Key Financial Data 25 26 27E 28E 29E 25 26 27E 28E 29E () 36 57 63 67 73 SPS 4,61 5,446 6,154 7,166 8,396 EPS 388 447 497 574 673 37 43 5 57 67 DPS 15 15 15 15 15 19 21 2 2 2 BPS 1,787 2,62 2,417 2,85 3,298 3 2 2 1 1 (%, YoY) -34-23 -14-16 -2 19.4 18.1 17.5 16.4 17.2 12 14 5 4 4 87.6 24.7 16.1 15.9 17.3 96.7 16.3 15.6 16.2 17.3 13.5 15.4 15.6 15.4 17.3 EPS 17.4 15.4 11.2 15.4 17.3-15 -41-31 -33-36 EBITDA 54.4 13.5 1.1 12. 13.5 (%) -14-28 -2-2 -2 9.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 11.4 11.2 11. 11. 11. 6-5 -1-1 -1 8.4 8.2 8.1 8. 8. -1-18 -6-7 -9 EBITDA Margin 14.9 14.3 13.4 12.9 12.5-7 1-5 -4-5 ROE 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.8 (%) (Credit) -97-96 -117-137 -16-1 -14-14 -18-17 - - - - - 53 56 5 45 4 Valuation(X) -1-14 -14-15 -15 PSR.4.6.6.5.5 1-3 -2 PER 5. 7.8 7.7 6.7 5.7 PBR 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 11 1 18 16 2 EV/EBITDA 1.3 3.1 3. 2.4 1.9 Page 12.