Korea/ 디스플레이 Comment Samsung SDI 4 August 2009 22 Jul 2009 13 Jul 2009 1 Jul 2009 이학무, Analyst, 3774-1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com 박재철, Analyst, 3774-6896 parkjc@miraeasset.com BMW 와 EV 사업본격화 자회사 SB 리모티브가 BMW 와 2020 년까지 EV 용배터리를독점공급하기로계약함에따라 EV 사업본격화를가시화함. 2013 년부터본격적인매출이예상되고 2015~2016 년에 10 억달러수준의매출이가능할것으로예상함. 이번계약은 1) 사업의불확실성이해소되었고, 2) 보쉬의영향력을재확인함으로써추가적인계약에대한기대를높일수있게되었을뿐아니라 3) 장기계약을통해서안정적인사업계획이가능하다는측면에서삼성 SDI 에대한기업가치를한단계높일수있는기회가될수있을것임. 목표주가 13 만원및투자의견 유지.» BMW 와 2020 년까지 EV 용배터리독점공급계약» 이번계약으로삼성 SDI 의기업가치한단계상승기대 목표주가 130,000 현재가 (8/03) 110,000 Upside/downside 18.2% Consensus target price 120,000 Difference from consensus 8.3% Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending 12-08A 12-09E 12-10E 12-11E Revenue (KRWb) 3,726 3,539 3,504 3,840 Op EBIT (KRWb) 88.9 97.6 234.5 244.8 Net income (KRWb) 38.9 294.0 387.4 410.8 Norm profit (KRWb) 38.9 294.0 387.4 410.8 EPS (KRW) 853 6,443 8,484 8,989 EPS growth NA 655.1% 31.7% 5.9% Norm P/E (x) 128.9 17.1 13.0 12.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.60 3.24 2.59 2.42 Dividend yield 0.000% 0.214% 0.219% 0.436% P/B (x) 1.14 1.03 0.96 0.90 ROE 0.85% 6.15% 7.43% 7.34% Net debt/equity (3.1%) (10.8%) (13.2%) (11.8%) Cons EPS (KRW) 853 4,175 4,887 3,717 Prev EPS (KRW) 853 4,629 6,202 7,121» 목표주가 13 만원및투자의견 유지» 단기실적개선지속과장기성장성가시화모멘텀유효» BMW 와 2020 년까지 EV 용배터리독점공급계약 Earnings quality score Earnings Quality Score Historical Earnings Stability Consensus Forecast Certainty Consensus Forecast Accuracy Sector Average: 55 21 24 16 15 BMW 와향후 2020 년까지 EV(PHEV 포함 ) 용배터리독점공급업체로 SB 리모티브가선정됨. 2010 년부터 2012 년까지는개발및시제품매출만발생할것으로보이며본격적인매출은 2013 년부터가능할것임. BMW 의판매량규모를감안할때 2015~2016 년전체판매량의 8~10% 수준인 15~18 만대의 EV 판매를가정할경우 SB 리모티브의배터리매출규모는 10 억달러수준이될것으로예상함. BMW 는유럽시장에서과징금을바탕으로추정할때유럽시장에서만 18 만대 EV 를판매해야할것으로보여전세계시장에서 15~18 만대수준의판매는충분히가능할것임.» 이번계약으로삼성 SDI 의기업가치한단계상승기대 이번 BMW 와의계약은 1) 완성차업체와본격적인사업을시작하여불확실성을해소해주었고, 2) 유럽시장에서의보쉬의영향력을재확인함으로써향후다른유럽자동차업체와의추가적인계약을이끌어낼기대감을높일수있으며, 3) 장기계약을통해서안정적인사업계획이가능하다는측면에서상당히긍정적이라고판단함. 글로벌최대자동차부품업체인보쉬와 JV 를설립하고도완성차업체와구체적인계약이가시화되지않아삼성 SDI 기업가치제고에제한적이었지만이번계약으로삼성 SDI 의기업가치제고에기여가가능할것임. Performance 0 25 50 75 100 Price Close Relative to.ks11 (RHS) 116,000 144 106,000 135 96,000 127 86,000 118 76,000 110 66,000 101 56,000 93 46,000 84 8-08 10-08 12-08 1-09 4-09 6-09 7-09 Trading data Market cap ( bn/us$mn) 4,673/3,658 Shares outstanding 45.56mn Free float 72.4% 52-week price high/low 52,600 110,000 Daily average turnover (3M) US$45.10mn Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute 5.8% 18.9% 29.9% Relative to KOSPI 7.8% 19.4% 39.8% Absolute (US$) 4.7% 23.4% 1.6% Major shareholders Samsung Electronics 21.3% Korea Investment 10.3% Source for data: Company, Thomson Reuters, Mirae Research estimates 1
» 목표주가 13 만원및투자의견 유지 2012 년까지매출기여는가능하고이익기여를기대할수없다는측면에서아직주가에 SB 리모티브가치를반영하기에시기적으로빨라보일수있으나, 장기적인관점에서는보면현주가수준은상당히매력적이라고판단함. 또한, 이번계약과관련해서 SB 리모티브의구체적인투자일정등이가시화될경우추가적인주가상승기대가능하다고판단. 목표주가 13 만원및투자의견 유지.» 단기실적개선지속과장기성장성가시화모멘텀유효 단기적으로실적개선이지속되고있는상황에서장기적인성장성에대한우려도해소됨으로써긍정적인주가흐름이지속될것으로기대함. 또한추가적으로 AM-OLED 의안정적인생산과이를바탕으로한영업강화를통해서 SMD 가 2/4 분기흑자전환에성공했을뿐아니라연간으로 1,300 억원의영업이익시현기대가가능한것도추가적인모멘텀이될수있을것임. Figure 1 미국내완성차업체별전기차예상비중 (2016 예상 ) ( 대 ) 2016 년예상판매량 전기차기대판매량 전기차기대비중 BMW 431,422 90,430 21.0% GM 3,937,348 614,413 15.6% FORD 2,703,028 373,547 13.8% HONDA 1,871,571 537,642 28.7% KIA 370,393 27,290 7.4% NISSAN 1,058,885 84,695 8.0% TOYOTA 2,874,744 199,063 6.9% HYUNDAI 484,331 15,968 3.3% PORSCHE 45,705 11,226 24.6% VW 397,041 64,484 16.2% Total 14,174,468 2,018,757 14.2% Source: Mirae Asset Research Figure 2 EU 내완성차업체별전기차예상비중 (2016 예상 ) 2016 년예상판매량 전기차기대판매량 전기차기대비중 (%) BMW 1,027,181 182,979 17.8% GM 1,766,380 220,798 12.5% FORD 1,820,791 247,268 13.6% HONDA 331,564 22,104 6.7% KIA 293,138 21,563 7.4% NISSAN 421,606 72,337 17.2% TOYOTA 979,851 0 0.0% HYUNDAI 339,286 15,860 4.7% VW 3,800,358 573,856 15.1% DAIMLER 987,605 162,553 16.5% Total 11,767,760 1,519,318 12.9% Source: Mirae Asset Research 2
Summary financial statements Profit & Loss Revenue 3,792 3,726 3,539 3,504 3,840 Cost of goods sold (3,667) (3,178) (3,027) (2,861) (3,186) Gross profit 125 549 512 643 653 SG and A (692) (460) (414) (409) (409) Op profit (567) 89 98 235 245 Op EBITDA (66) 605 504 611 642 Depreciation (494) (509) (402) (372) (393) Amortisation (8) (7) (4) (4) (4) Op EBIT (567) 89 98 235 245 Net interest 35 21 34 17 20 Associates and JCEs (163) 13 89 190 202 Other income 24 30 117 42 46 Net exceptional income - - - - - Profit before tax (670) 153 338 484 513 Tax 78 (10) (44) (97) (103) Post-tax profit (592) 142 294 387 411 Minorities - (104) - - - Preferred dividends Net income (592) 39 294 387 411 Norm profit (592) 39 294 387 411 Dividends (26) - (11) (11) (23) Retained earnings (619) 39 283 376 388 Cashflow Op EBITDA (66) 605 504 611 642 Decrease in working capital (359) 64 (136) 8 (72) Other operating cashflow 1,056 211 (296) (12) 63 Operating cashflow 631 880 72 606 633 Tax paid 78 (10) (44) (97) (103) Net interest 35 21 34 17 20 Dividends received (615) (184) 212 73 (33) Cashflow 130 707 275 600 518 Capital expenditure (372) (398) (347) (487) (487) Net acquisitions - - - - - Net investments 33 (19) (89) 9 (27) Other investing cashflow (17) (183) 451 62 (8) Investing cashflow (356) (600) 15 (417) (523) Dividends paid (26) - (11) (11) (23) Increase in equity - - - - - Increase in debt 254 (126) (60) (200) - Other financing cashflow (306) 379 133 0 - Financing cash flow (78) 253 62 (211) (23) Beginning cash 707 403 764 1,115 1,087 Total cash generated (304) 360 351 (28) (28) Forex effects Ending cash 403 763 1,115 1,087 1,059 3
Balance Sheet Current assets 1,465 1,542 1,920 1,923 2,004 Cash and equivalents 403 764 1,115 1,087 1,059 Receivables 546 451 452 474 543 Inventories 318 198 200 204 236 Other current assets 198 129 152 158 165 Non current assets 5,105 4,435 4,345 4,568 4,923 Net operating fixed assets 2,423 1,488 1,552 1,667 1,762 Interest in associates 2,265 2,462 2,338 2,455 2,691 Other non-current ssets 417 485 455 445 471 Total assets 6,570 5,978 6,265 6,491 6,927 Current liabilities 880 729 637 676 713 Payables 344 184 179 204 224 ST debt - 69 86 86 86 Other current liabilities 536 477 372 387 403 Total non-current liabilities 1,063 711 600 410 421 LT debt 747 552 476 276 276 Other non-current liabilities 316 159 124 134 146 Total liabilities 1,943 1,440 1,237 1,087 1,134 Minorities - 104 104 104 104 Issued capital 232 232 232 232 232 Share premium reserve 1,276 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 Reserves 473 300 519 519 519 Retained earnings 2,646 2,685 2,956 3,333 3,721 Other equity - - - - - Shareholders' equity 4,627 4,641 5,132 5,508 5,897 Key Ratios 12-07A 12-08A 12-09E 12-10E 12-11E Net revenue growth (22.7%) (1.7%) (5.0%) (1.0%) 9.6% Gross profit growth (81.9%) 338.6% (6.7%) 25.6% 1.5% Operating profit growth (4257.3%) NA 9.8% 140.3% 4.4% EBITDA growth (141.3%) NA 9.6% 18.8% 5.6% EPS growth (762.8%) NA 655.1% 31.7% 5.9% Norm BPS growth (1.5%) (1.4%) 10.9% 7.6% 7.3% Gross margin 3.3% 14.7% 14.5% 18.4% 17.0% Operating margin (15.0%) 2.4% 2.8% 6.7% 6.4% EBITDA margin (5.4%) 17.4% 20.1% 24.1% 23.2% EBIT margin (18.6%) 3.5% 8.6% 13.3% 12.8% Net income margin (15.6%) 1.0% 8.3% 11.1% 10.7% ROE (12.7%) 0.8% 6.1% 7.4% 7.3% ROA (9.14%) 0.62% 4.80% 6.07% 6.12% Net debt/equity 7.4% (3.1%) (10.8%) (13.2%) (11.8%) Interest cover ratio (101.0) 4.0 4.7 13.2 13.5 Dividend payout ratio (4.45%) 0.00% 3.77% 2.93% 5.50% Inventory days 31.68 22.81 24.11 25.97 27.08 Account receivable days 52.51 44.34 46.66 49.41 51.62 Account payable days 34.24 21.15 21.57 25.97 25.67 Reported EPS (KRW) -12,998 853 6,454 8,503 9,017 EPS (KRW) -12,998 853 6,443 8,484 8,989 Reported BPS (KRW) 98,088 96,177 106,594 114,565 122,794 Norm BPS (KRW) 96,689 95,322 105,717 113,711 121,967 DPS (KRW) 559.1 0.0 235.1 240.5 479.2 Cashflow per share (KRW) 2,852 15,517 6,032 13,176 11,367 Reported P/E (x) NA 128.9 17.0 12.9 12.2 Norm P/E (x) NA 128.9 17.1 13.0 12.2 P/B (x) 1.12 1.14 1.03 0.96 0.90 P/CF 38.57 7.09 18.23 8.35 9.68 EV/EBITDA (x) NA 3.60 3.24 2.59 2.42 EV/Operating Cashflow (x) 4.67 2.65 31.78 3.59 3.40 EV/Sales (x) 0.78 0.62 0.65 0.62 0.56 Dividend yield 0.51% 0.00% 0.21% 0.22% 0.44% 4
Recommendation 종목별투자의견 (12 개월기준 ) : 현주가대비목표주가 +10% 초과 Hold : 현주가대비목표주가 ±10% 이내 Reduce : 현주가대비목표주가 10% 초과단, 업종투자의견에의한 ±10% 내의조정치감안가능 업종별투자의견 Overweight : 현업종지수대비 +10% 초과 Neutral : 현업종지수대비 ±10% 이내 Cautious : 현업종지수대비 10% 초과 업종별투자의견의용어를재정리함 Earnings Quality Score Earnings Quality Score = 0.70*(Earnings Stability) + 0.15*(Earnings Certainty) + 0.15*(Earnings Forecast Accuracy) 1. Historical Earnings Stability - 최근 5 년간분기순이익성장률 (YoY) 의변동성을 100 분위지표로환산. - 변동성은 outlier 에의한왜곡현상을최소화하기위해표준편차 (SD) 대신 MAD(Median Absolute Deviation) 로산정. - 순이익분기성장률 (YoY) 변동성이낮을수록동지표값이높음. 2. Consensus Forecast Certainty - 12 개월예상 EPS( 컨센서스기준 ) 추정치에대한애널리스트간견해차를 100 분위지표로환산. - 견해차는 12 개월예상 EPS 의 ' 표준편차 / 평균 ' 으로산정. - 견해차가작을수록동지표값이높음. 3. Consensus Forecast Accuracy - 최근 3 년간 EPS surprise 절대값의평균 (median) 을 100 분위지표로환산. - EPS surprise 는 '( 연말실제치 - 연초추정치 )/ 연초추정치 ' 로산정. - Surprise 의절대크기가낮을수록동지표값이높음. * 참고사항 1) Consensus Forecast Certainty 및 Consensus Forecast Accuracy 는예상 EPS 컨센서스추정치수가 5 개이상인기업만을대상으로하였음. 2) 각지표를산정할수없을경우에는평균인 50 을부여하였음. Compliance Notice 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나당사는그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제3자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 당사는 8월 4일현재삼성SDI를기초자산으로하는 ELW 발행및 LP회사임을알려드립니다. 자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 이학무, 박재철 담당자보유주식수종목담당자종류수량취득가취득일 1% 이상보유여부 유가증권종목 계열사담당자 자사주종류 해당사항없음 주가및목표주가변동추이 주가 목표가격삼성 SDI(006400) Buy Hold Reduce Not Rated Previously Strong Buy Buy Mkt.Perm Und.Perm Date Recommendation 6-Month Target Price (W) 01/17/2007 HOLD 67,000 01/25/2007 HOLD 63,000 (Down) 02/13/2007 HOLD 63,000 03/19/2007 HOLD 63,000 04/25/2007 HOLD 53,000 (Down) 07/16/2007 (UP) 105,000 (Up) 06/10/2008 105,000 06/12/2008 130,000 (Up) 12/16/2008 130,000 12/18/2008 85,000 (Down) 02/25/2009 85,000 04/22/2009 120,000 (Up) 07/01/2009 120,000 07/13/2009 120,000 07/22/2009 130,000 (Up) 08/04/2009 130,000 5