2013. 03. 07 3 월 BOJ 회의 : 패는 4 월로이월 채권전략 연구원이슬비 3771_9175 sblee@iprovest.com 연구위원권한욱 3771_9633 hwkwon@iprovest.com 3 월 BOJ 회의결과주요내용 - 기준금리 (0.0~0.1%) 와물가안정목표치 (2.0%) 유지및기존자산매입규모지속 기준금리는현 0.0~0.1% 동결 지난 1월통화정책회의에서도입한물가안정목표치 2.0% 유지 기존자산매입규모를지속하기로결정, 추가적인양적완화조치는없었음 3 월 BOJ 회의전문 Review: 2 개월연속자국경제진단상향조정 - 자국경제전반및수출, 산업생산의약세추세종료를확실히언급 시라카와 BOJ 총재의마지막주재회의인 3월 BOJ 회의결과는예상대로추가적완화조치나코멘트가없이기존기조유지로결정되었으며, 성명문내용의대부분이그대로유지되는가운데미묘한문구변화를통하여전월보다경기회복에대한자신감을한층강하게피력 먼저일본경제에대해, 약화추세를멈춘것으로보인다 (appears to stop weakening) 에서 약화추세가멈추었다 (has stopped weakening) 로문구를변경 자국수출부문에대해서도, 기존의 수출은감소하고있지만 (Exports continue to decrease) 해외경제의성장을반영하여감소속도가완화되고있으며 (but the pace of decrease has been moderating, reflecting the aforementioned developments in overseas economies.) 에서 수출감소세가멈춘것으로보인다 (appears to stop decreasing) 로언급을수정 산업생산역시도 감소추세를멈춘것으로보인다 (appears to stop decreasing) 에서 감소추세가멈추었다 (has stopped decreasing) 로상향진단
3 월 BOJ 회의영향 : 보다강력해질 4 월이후 BOJ 의양적완화 - BOJ 차기총재및부총재내정자의비둘기파적성향으로 4월이후강력한추가완화적조치예상, 이에따른정책금리인하및매수포지션유지전략유효판단 3 월 BOJ 회의에서는예상대로추가양적완화실시가부재, 다음열쇠는신임총재의첫회의가될 4 월 BOJ 회의로이양된양상 구로다하루히코 BOJ 차기총재내정자는보다강력하고빠른디플레이션해결의지를여러차례밝혀온바있으며, 차기부총재내정자인이와타기쿠오교수역시장기국채매입필요성 ( 현재 3년만기이하국채매입에서 5년만기이상국채매입으로변경할것을주장 ) 언급및무기한양적완화의금년내시행을강조 비록부결되었지만금번회의에서도 2014 년부터시행예정인무기한양적완화를즉각적으로실시하자는주장이나왔으며, 신임총재가주재할 4월회의에서는이와동일하거나능가하는수준의보다강력한양적완화조치가결정될것으로판단 BOJ 의아베노믹스지지를위한전폭적인정책노력에대해국제적인찬반논란이지속되는가운데, BOJ 총재및부총재내정자들의경기부양의지는엔화약세추세를보다가속화시킬전망 환차익뿐만아니라동일신용등급타국가대비높은금리수준에기댄외국인의원화채권현 선물매입기조가지속적으로이어지고있는부분은수급상우호적인여건을제공할것으로판단 또한주요국과의통화정책국제공조중요성을강조한김중수한은총재의언급으로미루어볼때신임총재임명이후보다강력해질일본 BOJ 의양적완화조치에대응하고, 내수증진, 원화절상속도제어, 가계부채비용부담완화등을위한 3월정책금리인하가능성에도보다무게가실릴것으로전망 여전히보수적인정책판단성향을재확인시켜준 2월금통위의사록과신정부의부처출범지연에따라 3월기준금리인하가능성이다소희석될수있으나만약동결되더라도상반기내금리인하기대감이견고하게유지되며기준금리대비선제적으로하락하는금리흐름이이어질가능성이높은것으로예상 2 Research Center
도표 1. BOJ 기존자산매입프로그램자산종류별월별잔고 ( 단위 : 조엔 ) ( 단위 : 조엔 ) JGBs T-Bills CP Corporate Bonds ETFs J-REITs 고정금리대출 Total Dec-11 2.91 2.68 1.98 1.54 0.83 0.06 32.03 42.03 Jan-12 3.52 2.37 1.70 1.69 0.85 0.07 32.83 43.01 Feb-12 4.32 2.61 1.63 1.83 0.85 0.07 33.35 44.65 Mar-12 6.32 3.45 1.59 2.01 0.85 0.07 34.60 48. Apr-12 7.84 3.45 1.58 2.06 0.94 0.08 34.34 50.29 May-12 9.84 3.04 1.71 2.17 1.11 0.09 33.33 51.29 Jun-12 12.66 3.51 1.85 2.25 1.28 0.09 32.37 54.01 Jul-12 14.07 4.56 1.70 2.41 1.30 0.09 31.05 55.18 Aug-12 15.74 6.50 1.52 2.60 1.34 0.09 30.59 58.37 Sep-12 18.13 7.41 1.38 2.71 1.39 0.10 30.73 61.86 Oct-12 20.92 7.55 1.54 2.89 1.45 0.11 28.97 63.43 Nov-12 22.17 8.96 1.93 3.02 1.47 0.11 27.01 64.67 Dec-12 24.12 9.56 2.05 2.93 1.47 0.11 26. 67.14 Jan-13 25.93 11.66 2.02 2.99 1.49 0.11 23.27 67.47 Feb-13 26.49 13.34 2.04 3.02 1.50 0.12 23.56 70.07 E Jun-13 34.00 19.50 2.10 2. 1.60 0.12 25.00 85.22 E Dec-13 44.00 24.50 2.20 3.20 2.10 0.13 25.00 101.13 자료 : BOJ, 교보증권리서치센터주 : 13 년 2 월까지는실제잔고, 이후잔고는 12 년 12 월및 13 년 1 월 BOJ 성명서상의목표치 도표 2. BOJ 자산매입프로그램월별잔고추이와원 / 웬환율추이 JGBs T-Bills CP 110 ( 조엔 ) Corporate Bonds ETFs J-REITs (KRW/JPY) 1,550 고정금리대출원엔환율 ( 우 ) 1,500 70 1,450 1,400 60 1,350 50 1,300 40 30 20 1,250 1,200 10 1,150 0 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 E Jun-13 E Dec- 13 1, 자료 : BOJ, 본드웹, 교보증권리서치센터주 : 13 년 2 월까지는실제잔고, 이후잔고는 12 년 12 월및 13 년 1 월 BOJ 성명서상의목표치 3 Research Center
도표 3. 엔 / 달러, 원 / 엔환율추이 도표 4. 일본수출증가율과엔 / 달러환율추이 (JPY /USD) 엔 / 달러환율 ( 좌 ) 원 / 엔환율 ( 우 ) (KRW/JPY ) 1,600 60 (%, Y oy) 일본수출증가율 ( 좌 ) 엔 / 달러환율 ( 우 ) (JPY /USD) 105 95 85 1,500 1,400 1,300 40 20 0-20 95 85 1,200-40 75 75 1, Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 자료 : Bloomberg, 교보증권리서치센터 -60 70 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May -11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 자료 : Bloomberg, 한국무역협회, 교보증권리서치센터 도표 5. 일본 CPI 추이와물가목표치 도표 6. 일본산업생산추이 3.00 (%) 일본 CPI( 신선식품제외, YoY ) (pt, 2005 년 =) 일본산업생산원지수 ( 좌 ) 일본산업생산 (MoM, 우 ) (%) 10 2.00 ('13 년 1 월 BOJ 회의후설정된물가목표치 ) 95 5 1.00 0 0.00 85-5 -1.00-10 -2.00 75-15 -3.00 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 자료 : Bloomberg, 교보증권리서치센터 70 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May -12 Oct-12 자료 : Bloomberg, 교보증권리서치센터 -20 4 Research Center
도표 7. BOJ 통화정책회의성명문주요내용정리 구분 2013 년 3 월 2013 년 2 월 2013 년 1 월 - uncollateralized overnight call rate - uncollateralized overnight call rate - uncollateralized overnight call rate 0.0~0.1% 0.0~0.1% 0.0~0.1% - price stability target at 2% YoY of - price stability target at 2% YoY of change - 10 trillion yen (~2014) change in the CPI in the CPI - price stability target : the price stability 통화정책결정사항 target at 2% YoY of change in the CPI at the earliest possible time - open-ended asset purchasing method (without setting any termination date) 세계경제 -While remain in a deceleration phase, - While remain in a deceleration phase, - remain in a deceleration phase have shown some signs of picking up have shown some signs of picking up 일본경제 - has stopped weakening - the YoY rate of change in the CPI is around 0% - appears to stop weakening - the YoY rate of change in the CPI is around 0% - remains relatively weak - the YoY rate of change in the CPI is around 0% - Exports appears to stop decreasing - Business fixed investments has shown - Exports continue to decrease, but the pace of decrease has been moderating - Exports and industrial production have decreased, reflecting the aforementioned 수 출 some weakness on the whole, - Business fixed investments has shown developments in overseas economies 산업생산 although resilience has been observed some weakness on the whole, although - Business fixed investments has shown 및 in nonmanufacturing resilience has been observed in some weakness on the whole, although 기업활동 - Industrial production has stopped nonmanufacturing resilience has been observed in decreasing - Industrial production appears to stop nonmanufacturing decreasing 공공부문 - Public investment has continued to increase, and housing investment has generally been picking up - Public investment has continued to increase, and housing investment has generally been picking up - Public investment has continued to increase, and housing investment has generally been picking up - private consumption has remained resilient - private consumption has remained resilient and the effects of the decline in - private consumption has remained resilient and the effects of the decline in 가 계 car sales due to the ending of some measures to stimulate demand for automobiles have fallen off car sales due to the ending of some measures to stimulate demand for automobiles have diminished 금융시장 - financial conditions in Japan are - financial conditions in Japan are - financial conditions in Japan are accommodative accommodative accommodative 위 험 - the European debt problem - the momentum toward recovery for the U.S. economy - the European debt problem - the momentum toward recovery for the U.S. economy - the European debt problem - the momentum toward recovery for the U.S. economy 및 - the possibility of emerging and - the possibility of emerging and - the possibility of emerging and 경 제 commodity-exporting economies commodity-exporting economies commodity-exporting economies 불확실 making a smooth transition to the making a smooth transition to the making a smooth transition to the 요인 sustainable growth path sustainable growth path sustainable growth path - the effects of the recent bilateral relationship between Japan and China - the effects of the recent bilateral relationship between Japan and China - the effects of the recent bilateral relationship between Japan and China 자료 : BOJ, 교보증권리서치센터 5 Research Center
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