Korea/ 화학 LG 화학 Issue Comment BUY 20 July 2009 BUY 17 Jul 2009 박재철, Analyst, 3774-6896 parkjc@miraeasset.com 이학무, Analyst, 3774-1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com 기대감이큰유리기판사업 LG 화학이유리기판사업에 1.2 조원규모의투자를결정하였음. 이에대한우려보다는기대할것이많다고판단함. 1) 예상 ROIC 는 15% 이상으로자기자본비용 9% 대비높아매력적인투자이며, 2) 기술제공처인쇼트글라스는 5 세대유리기판을월 5 만매까지공급했던경험이있음. 또한 3) LG 디스플레이라는대형고객의존재, 4) 동사의진입으로인한유리기판의급격한단가하락은제한적일것으로판단하기때문임. 유리기판사업은 2012 년이후편광필름, 이차전지와함께정보전자소재부문의주축이되어전사적인이익안정성을확대시킬것으로기대함.» 우려보다는기대감이큰유리기판사업» 자기자본비용을상회하는 ROIC 15% 이상기대 Target price 200,000 Current price (17 July 2009) 139,000 Upside/downside 43.9% Consensus target price 168,000 Difference from consensus 19.0% Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-08A Dec-09E Dec-10E Dec-11E Revenue (KRWb) 12,645 13,217 14,165 15,411 Op EBIT (KRWb) 1,344 1,822 1,541 1,755 Net income (KRWb) 980 1,480 1,309 1,476 Norm profit (KRWb) 980 1,480 1,309 1,476 EPS (KRW) 12,839 22,337 19,756 22,274 EPS growth 46.7% 74.0% (11.6%) 12.7% Norm P/E (x) 10.83 6.22 7.04 6.24 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.71 3.32 3.38 2.90 Dividend yield 1.77% 1.79% 2.15% 2.51% P/B (x) 2.44 1.74 1.45 1.23 ROE 22.6% 27.5% 20.2% 19.2% Net debt/equity 17.9% 8.4% (2.3%) (8.3%) Cons EPS (KRW) 12,839 16,378 15,088 16,231 Prev EPS (KRW)» 유리기판의급격한가격하락은없을것» 정보전자소재부문에대한기대감강화 Earnings quality score Sector Average: 55» 우려보다는기대감이큰유리기판사업 Earnings Quality Score Historical Earnings Stability Consensus Forecast Certainty 62 75 77 LG 화학의유리기판사업본격진입발표는우려보다는기대할것이많다고판단함. 그이유는 1) 2007 년 2/4 분기에 5 세대유리기판을월 5 만장수준까지출하할정도로양산기술력을확보하고있는쇼트글라스로부터기술이전을받았고, 2) LG 디스플레이라는최대고객이있어쇼트글라스의최대실패요인인고객확보문제는이미해결된상태이며, 3) 유리기판업체의보수적인성향을감안하면진입초기에급격한단가하락으로인한초기수익성악화가능성이낮기때문임. Consensus Forecast Accuracy Performance Price Close 164,000 144,000 124,000 104,000 84,000 80 0 25 50 75 100 Relative to.ks11 (RHS) 188 171 155 138 121» 자기자본비용을상회하는 ROIC 15% 이상기대 유리기판사업의 1.2 조원투자를통해서기대되는연간영업이익은 2,400 억원규모가될것임. 이는 15% 이상의 ROIC 로, 9% 대자기자본비용을감안하면충분히매력적인투자임. LG 디스플레이의연간유리기판구매금액이 2.5 조원이상, 연간구매면적이 5 천만 m 2 임을감안하면 LG 화학의초기연간생산목표인 1 천 7 백만 m 2 은 LG 디스플레이수요량의 30% 에불과한상황. 따라서초기투자로인한매출액 8 천억원및영업이익 2,400 억원은충분히달성가능한수준이며, 향후추가투자를통한이익성장가능성도풍부하다고판단함. 64,000 105 44,000 88 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Trading data Market cap ( bn/us$mn) 10,373/8,120 Shares outstanding 66.27mn Free float 65% 52-week price high/low 54,536 153,000 Daily average turnover (3M) US$74.30mn Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute -1.4% 56.3% 51.3% Relative to KOSPI -1.4% 51.6% 60.1% Absolute (US$) -2.4% 62.2% 18.3% Major shareholders LG Corp. 33.5% Mirae Asset Investment 10.89% Source for data: Company, Thomson Reuters, Mirae Research estimates 1
» 유리기판의급격한가격하락은없을것 유리기판업체의보수적인성향을감안하면 LG 화학이 2012 년유리기판의양산을시작하더라도급격한가격하락은없을것으로보임. 쇼트글라스가유리기판사업에진출하여 5 세대기판의공급을확대했던 2007 년상반기를보더라도 5 세대유리기판가격은 QoQ 1% 하락하였으며, 이는유리기판의분기평균하락률인 1~2% 수준임. LG 화학의유리기판사업진출로인한급격한가격하락은없을것으로예상» 정보전자소재부문에대한기대감강화 유리기판사업을바탕으로동사의정보전자소재부문에대한기대감을더욱높여야할시점이라고판단함. 이번유리기판투자는지난 6 월발표한전기자동차용배터리공장에 2013 년까지투자하기로한 1 조원보다큰규모로동사가유리기판사업에거는기대와확신은그어느때보다높다고볼수있음. 이로써동사의유리기판사업은편광필름, 이차전지와함께정보전자소재부문의주축이됨으로써전사적인영업안정성을확대할수있을것으로기대함, Figure 1 유리기판공급 Market Share (1Q09) NEG, 19% AvanStrate, 6% Corning, 17% LG 화학은연간 1,700 만 m2 의공급능력을확보할것이며, 이는전세계공급능력의 7% 수준임 AGC, 23% SCP, 35% Corning SCP AGC NEG AvanStrate Source: DisplaySearch, Mirae Asset Research Figure 2 1Q09 Glass Substrate Market Shares by Area Corning SCP AGC NEG AvanStrate SEC 80% 10% 10% LGD 40% 10% 50% AUO 35% 40% 25% CMO 41% 40% 9% 10% Sharp 52% 43% 5% Average 17% 35% 23% 19% 6% Source: DisplaySearch, Mirae Asset Research 2
Summary financial statements Profit & Loss Revenue 10,795 12,645 13,217 14,165 15,411 Cost of goods sold (8,982) (10,506) (10,374) (11,537) (12,484) Gross profit 1,813 2,139 2,843 2,628 2,927 SG and A (1,050) (795) (1,021) (1,087) (1,172) Op profit 764 1,344 1,822 1,541 1,755 Op EBITDA 1,227 1,768 2,292 2,057 2,316 Depreciation (437) (402) (451) (499) (544) Amortisation (27) (21) (19) (18) (18) Op EBIT 764 1,344 1,822 1,541 1,755 Net interest (62) (35) (16) (10) (6) Associates and JCEs 168 (16) 138 138 138 Other income (47) (48) 35 85 93 Net exceptional income - - - - - Profit before tax 822 1,245 1,979 1,755 1,979 Tax (136) (243) (479) (422) (476) Post-tax profit 686 1,003 1,500 1,332 1,503 Minorities - - - - - Preferred dividends (18) (22) (19) (23) (27) Net income 668 980 1,480 1,309 1,476 Norm profit 668 980 1,480 1,309 1,476 Dividends (167) (209) (184) (221) (258) Retained earnings 501 771 1,296 1,088 1,218 Cashflow Op EBITDA 1,227 1,768 2,292 2,057 2,316 Decrease in working capital (206) (576) (107) 1 (268) Other operating cashflow (234) 238 499 50 (1) Operating cashflow 787 1,429 2,684 2,108 2,047 Tax paid (136) (243) (479) (422) (476) Net interest (62) (35) (16) (10) (6) Dividends received 410 (182) (46) 40 84 Cashflow 999 969 2,143 1,716 1,649 Capital expenditure (429) (745) (840) (885) (965) Net acquisitions - - - - - Net investments (20) (50) (51) (12) (28) Other investing cashflow (88) 9 67 25 84 Investing cashflow (536) (786) (824) (872) (908) Dividends paid (167) (209) (184) (221) (258) Increase in equity - - (56) - - Increase in debt (218) 37 (125) (200) (220) Other financing cashflow 178 (56) (706) 42 48 Financing cash flow (207) (228) (1,071) (379) (429) Beginning cash 116 566 522 769 1,234 Total cash generated 256 (45) 247 465 311 Forex effects Ending cash 372 522 769 1,234 1,546 3
Balance Sheet Current assets 2,862 3,317 3,957 4,500 5,220 Cash and equivalents 566 522 769 1,234 1,546 Receivables 977 1,123 1,406 1,381 1,593 Inventories 1,168 1,509 1,605 1,700 1,889 Other current assets 150 163 178 185 193 Non current assets 4,188 4,720 5,340 5,840 6,342 Net operating fixed assets 2,837 3,083 3,740 4,126 4,547 Interest in associates 636 803 987 1,086 1,140 Other non-current ssets 714 834 613 629 654 Total assets 7,050 8,036 9,297 10,340 11,561 Current liabilities 2,030 2,162 2,315 2,292 2,283 Payables 749 527 720 751 843 ST debt 366 575 441 341 191 Other current liabilities 915 1,060 1,153 1,200 1,249 Total non-current liabilities 1,142 984 1,033 950 898 LT debt 991 820 829 729 659 Other non-current liabilities 150 164 204 221 239 Total liabilities 3,172 3,147 3,348 3,242 3,181 Minorities 43 43 37 37 37 Issued capital 376 376 326 326 326 Share premium reserve 1,299 1,315 773 773 773 Reserves (40) 119 126 126 126 Retained earnings 2,199 3,037 4,688 5,836 7,119 Other equity - - - - - Shareholders' equity 3,878 4,890 5,950 7,098 8,380 Key Ratios Dec-07A Dec-08A Dec-09E Dec-10E Dec-11E Net revenue growth 16.0% 17.1% 4.5% 7.2% 8.8% Gross profit growth 35.6% 18.0% 32.9% (7.6%) 11.4% Operating profit growth 128.7% 76.0% 35.5% (15.4%) 13.9% EBITDA growth 33.9% 26.4% 44.7% (7.5%) 11.7% EPS growth 84.8% 46.7% 74.0% (11.6%) 12.7% Norm BPS growth 25.0% 23.2% 39.3% 18.9% 17.9% Gross margin 16.8% 16.9% 21.5% 18.6% 19.0% Operating margin 7.1% 10.6% 13.8% 10.9% 11.4% EBITDA margin 12.5% 13.5% 18.7% 16.1% 16.5% EBIT margin 8.2% 10.1% 15.1% 12.5% 12.9% Net income margin 6.2% 7.8% 11.2% 9.2% 9.6% ROE 20.9% 22.6% 27.5% 20.2% 19.2% ROA 10.4% 13.0% 17.1% 13.3% 13.5% Net debt/equity 20.4% 17.9% 8.4% (2.3%) (8.3%) Interest cover ratio 9.97 34.25 45.93 44.20 52.22 Dividend payout ratio 25.0% 21.3% 12.4% 16.9% 17.5% Inventory days 47.46 52.57 56.47 53.78 55.23 Account receivable days 33.04 32.51 38.82 35.58 37.72 Account payable days 30.45 18.37 25.34 23.77 24.64 Reported EPS (KRW) 8,753 12,839 22,337 19,756 22,274 EPS (KRW) 8,753 12,839 22,337 19,756 22,274 Reported BPS (KRW) 45,046 56,928 80,003 95,541 112,892 Norm BPS (KRW) 47,702 58,763 81,849 97,337 114,712 DPS (KRW) 1,962 2,457 2,493 2,990 3,488 Cashflow per share (KRW) 13,089 12,692 32,332 25,894 24,879 Reported P/E (x) 15.88 10.83 6.22 7.04 6.24 Norm P/E (x) 15.88 10.83 6.22 7.04 6.24 P/B (x) 3.09 2.44 1.74 1.45 1.23 P/CF 10.62 10.95 4.30 5.37 5.59 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.19 5.71 3.32 3.38 2.90 EV/Operating Cashflow (x) 12.30 6.81 3.05 3.65 3.60 EV/Sales (x) 0.90 0.77 0.62 0.54 0.48 Dividend yield 1.41% 1.77% 1.79% 2.15% 2.51% 4
Recommendation 종목별투자의견 (12 개월기준 ) BUY : 현주가대비목표주가 +10% 초과 Hold : 현주가대비목표주가 ±10% 이내 Reduce : 현주가대비목표주가 10% 초과단, 업종투자의견에의한 ±10% 내의조정치감안가능 업종별투자의견 Overweight : 현업종지수대비 +10% 초과 Neutral : 현업종지수대비 ±10% 이내 Cautious : 현업종지수대비 10% 초과 업종별투자의견의용어를재정리함 Earnings Quality Score Earnings Quality Score = 0.70*(Earnings Stability) + 0.15*(Earnings Certainty) + 0.15*(Earnings Forecast Accuracy) 1. Historical Earnings Stability - 최근 5 년간분기순이익성장률 (YoY) 의변동성을 100 분위지표로환산. - 변동성은 outlier 에의한왜곡현상을최소화하기위해표준편차 (SD) 대신 MAD(Median Absolute Deviation) 로산정. - 순이익분기성장률 (YoY) 변동성이낮을수록동지표값이높음. 2. Consensus Forecast Certainty - 12 개월예상 EPS( 컨센서스기준 ) 추정치에대한애널리스트간견해차를 100 분위지표로환산. - 견해차는 12 개월예상 EPS 의 ' 표준편차 / 평균 ' 으로산정. - 견해차가작을수록동지표값이높음. 3. Consensus Forecast Accuracy - 최근 3 년간 EPS surprise 절대값의평균 (median) 을 100 분위지표로환산. - EPS surprise 는 '( 연말실제치 - 연초추정치 )/ 연초추정치 ' 로산정. - Surprise 의절대크기가낮을수록동지표값이높음. * 참고사항 1) Consensus Forecast Certainty 및 Consensus Forecast Accuracy 는예상 EPS 컨센서스추정치수가 5 개이상인기업만을대상으로하였음. 2) 각지표를산정할수없을경우에는평균인 50 을부여하였음. Compliance Notice 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나당사는그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제3자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 당사는 7월 20일현재 LG화학을기초자산으로하는 ELW 발행및 LP회사임을알려드립니다. 자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 박재철, 이학무 담당자보유주식수종목담당자종류수량취득가취득일 1% 이상보유여부 유가증권종목 계열사담당자 자사주종류 해당사항없음 주가및목표주가변동추이 주가 목표가격 LG 화학 (051910) Buy Hold Reduce Not Rated Previously Strong Buy Buy Mkt.Perm Und.Perm Date Recommendation 12-Month Target Price <Change in Analyst> 11/11/2008 BUY 100,000 11/18/2008 BUY 100,000 <No changes in our TP and recommendation> 02/13/2009 BUY 100,000 02/20/2009 BUY 100,000 02/27/2009 BUY 100,000 03/06/2009 BUY 100,000 03/13/2009 BUY 100,000 03/20/2009 BUY 100,000 03/27/2009 BUY 100,000 04/06/2009 BUY 120,000 (Up) 04/10/2009 BUY 120,000 <Change in Analyst> 07/13/2009 BUY 200,000 (Reinstate) 07/17/2009 BUY 200,000 07/20/2009 BUY 200,000 5