USD 125.24 USD.52 China NYSE 24.6% Bloomberg Rating EPS 성장율 (F18F,%) 22.2 P/E(18F,x) 23.3 MKT P/E(17F,x) 18.1 배당수익률. 시가총액 ( 백만USD) 2,825 유통주식수 ( 백만주 ) 2,485 52주최저가 (USD) 64.66 52주최고가 (USD) 19.87 주가상승률 1개월 6개월 12개월 절대주가 4.5 3.8 49.4 상대주가 1. -3.6 21.9 14 13 12 11 9 BABA S&P 16.1 16.7 17.1 Yongjei Jeong, CFA, Analyst 2-3774-1938 yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com
2 Wholesale 2 Retail YoY성장률 (R) 1 FY213 FY215 FY217E FY219E 9 6 4 3 2 1 9, Mobile 8, PC 7, 6, 소매시장침투율 (R) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 212 213 214 215 216 217E218E219E 25 2 15 1 5 9 6 4 3 2 1 7 9 14 12 81 82 76 81 213 214 215 216 Others JD.com Alibaba 2
( 십억 CNY) 8, T-mall 7, Taobao 6 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, YoY 성장률 (R) 4 3 2 1 FY213 FY215 FY217E FY219E 9 Taobao 9, B2C ebay EachNet 8, C2C 7, B2C 비중 (R) 6 6 6, 5, 4 4 4, 3 3 3, 2 2, 2 1 1, 1 212 213 214 215 216 217E 218E 219E 23 24 25 26 27 3
3, 9 3, T-mall 2, 21 24 26 28 3 JD.com 16 22 6 2, 1, 4 1, 3 58 61 56 61 61 61 6 2 1 213 214 215 216 217E 218E 219E 213 214 215 216 217E 218E 219E Others JD.com T-mall 4
( 백만개 ) 6 4 3 2 1 JD.com Cainiao Network 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 ( 백만CNY) (1,) Cainiao NI ( 추정 ) (9) JD.com GAAP NI () () (6) () (4) (3) (2) () 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 5
2 2 1 FY215 수수료 38 마케팅서비스 36 수수료매출비중 (R) 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 FY216 FY217E FY218E FY219E FY22E 3. 2. Marketing service % of GMV Commission % of GMV 2. 1. 1... FY2Q14 FY3Q15 FY4Q16 FY1Q18 FY2Q19 FY3Q2 6
( 백만명 ) 9 Alibaba Baidu Tencent 6 4 3 2 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 9 6 4 3 2 1 8 1 12 16 25 29 32 34 28 21 19 18 Others Tencent Alibaba Baidu 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 광고매출 (L) YoY성장률 (R) 6 4 3 2 1 215 216 217E 218E 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 (1) 7
3 Others International 2 China YoY 성장률 (R) 2 1 FY213 FY215 FY217E FY219E 6 4 3 2 1 Innovation initiatives and others 45 4 Digital media&enter 35 Cloud computing 3 25 2 15 1 5 FY213 FY215 FY217E FY219E 8
18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Others Lazada 4 2 FY214 FY216 FY218E FY22E 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Philippines Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailland Indonesia ( 십억USD) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 거래금액 (L) 점유율 (R) 3 25 2 15 1 5 215 216 217E 218E 219E 22E 215 216 217E 218E 219E 22E 9
3 Others (UCWeb and etc.) 25 Youku Tudou 2 15 1 5 FY214 FY216 FY218E FY22E 6 4 3 2 Mobile YoY 성장률 (R) PC TV 시장대비비중 (R) 6 4 3 2 ( 백만명 ) 12 6 4 2 사용자 (L) YoY 증가율 (R) 2 1 16 14 12 6 4 2 1 1 212 213 214 215 216 217E 218E 219E 1
( 십억USD) 62 6 6 ( 십억USD) 9. 8. 8. 58 7. 56 6. 54 5. 4.5 52 4. 3. 48 2. 46 1. 44 215 년 6 월 216 년 4 월. Eleme Koubei 11
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(USD) 1 (USD) 1 9.x 16 14 29x 25x 16 14 7.5x 12 21x 12 6.x 6 17x 13x 6 4.5x 3.x 4 4 2 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 2 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 (x) 26 (x) 8. 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 +2std +1std Avg. -1std -2std 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 +2std +1std Avg. -1std -2std 1 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 3. Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 13
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3 2 2 1 매출액 (L) 영업이익률 (R) 55 45 4 35 3 2 2 1 Others Cloud computing Core commerce 3 25 FY212 FY214 FY216 FY218E 2 FY213 FY215 FY217E FY219E 8, T-mall 7, 6, Taobao 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, FY213 FY215 FY217E FY219E 14. 12.7 12. 거래금액 (L). 91.2 YoY성장률 (R). 57. 6. 36.2 4. 19.1 2. 5.2.9. 212 212 212 213 214 215 216 9 6 4 3 2 15
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Softbank Group 35.4 29.9 Yahoo+Altaba Jack Ma CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN BLACKROCK 2. 2.2 2.4 12.9 15.3 BAILLIE GIFFORD AND Others 17
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