에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 2, September 2018 : pp. 89~114 정책 일본의 CO 2 배출, 원자력에너지, 신재생에너지관계분석 * - 89 -
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ln ln ln ln ln ln - 96 -
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln - 97 -
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln - 98 -
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< 표 1> 변수기초통계량 - 100 -
[ 그림 1] 주요변수추세 배출량 인당에너지소비량 원자력발전량 신재생에너지발전량 ln - 101 -
ln < 표 2> 단위근검정 ln ln ln ln ln ln - 102 -
< 표 3> ARDL- 한계검정 ln ln ln ln ln 한계검정 - 103 -
< 표 4> ARDL(1,0,0,0,0) 모형추정 ln ln ln ln ln ln - 104 -
[ 그림 2] ARDL 모형의 CUSUM 검정과 CUSUMSQ 검정 [ 그림 3] ARDL 모형의탄소배출량예측력 - 105 -
< 표 5> ARDL 오차수정모형 ln ln ln ln ln ln - 106 -
[ 그림 3] 단기추정모형의 CUSUM 검정과 CUSUMSQ 검정 - 107 -
< 표 6> CO 2 배출량장 단기탄력성추정 - 108 -
접수일 (2018 년 7 월 13 일 ), 수정일 (2018 년 8 월 25 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 9 월 27 일 ) - 109 -
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ABSTRACT This study analyzed the long-term relationship between CO 2 emissions and energy consumption in Japan using the ARDL model. The ARDL-bound test results show that there is a cointegration between Japan's CO 2 emissions, income, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and nuclear energy consumption. CO 2 emissions in Japan were determined in the long term by total energy consumption and nuclear energy consumption. Nuclear energy consumption has been shown to help reduce CO 2 emissions. However, new and renewable energy has no significant effect on reducing CO 2 emissions, because the proportion of new and renewable energy is still insignificant, and it is because the new renewable energy is not produced efficiently. It can be expected that Japan would have some difficultly in fulfillment CO 2 emission abatement unless Japan resume nuclear power generation. Key Words : ARDL, CO 2, Renewables, Nuclear energy - 114 -