:, 1981-1996 An Empirical Analy sis on th e Relat ion ship Bet w een Reg ion al Indu strial Structure and Regional Economic F luctuation : F ocused on Korean Cities, 1981-1996 2001 2 ( )
:, 1981-1996 An Empirical Analy sis on th e Relat ion ship Bet w een Reg ion al Indu strial Structure and Regional Economic F luctuation : F ocused on Korean Cities, 1981-1996 2001 2 ( )
. 2001 2
.,. 1981 1996.,..,,., 10 20,., 1986 (- ).,,
..
1 (allocation effect ) (p. 30) 2-1 51 RIS ( ) (p. 45-46) 2-2 51 REF ( ) (p. 48-49) 3 51 RIS REF (p. 51) 4-1 50 RIS REF (p. 54) 4-2 (p. 54) 4-3 (p. 56) 4-4 (p. 57) 5-1 (p. 59) 5-2 (p. 61) 6 (p. 62) 1 RIS REF (p. 65)
. / 1. / 7 1. / 7 2. / 9 2.1 2.2 3. / 12 3.1 3.2. / 17 1. / 17 2. (RIS ) / 18 2.1 2.2 : (NAA) 3. (REF ) / 25 3.1 (Shift- Share Analysis) 3.2 :. / 40
1. / 40 2. / 42. / 44 1. / 44 1.1 RIS REF 1.2 RIS REF 1.3 RIS REF 1.3.1 1.3.2 2. / 61 2.1 2.2. / 66 1. / 66 1.1 1.2 2. / 69
. 1.. - (D. Dimitrios, 1992: 16)., Adam Smith, Karl Marx, Henri Pirenne. Fordism, (D. Dimitrios, 1992: 82). 20.,..,,,. - 1 -
(N. Jewson and S. MacGregor, 1997: 3). (container) (S. Sassen, 1994).,,,,, (world cities) (global localization)' (P. L. Knox, 1995: 7). Post-Fordism Neo-Fordism.,, Keynesian Fordism Post-Fordism (, ). (deregulation) (flexible accumulation) (P. L. Knox, 1995: 7)., - (N. Jewson and S. MacGregor, 1997). - 2 -
,,. 1991.,,,,, (over centralization) (, 1995: 11)..,. (J. R. Feagin and M. P. Smith, 1996: 347)., ( :, ). - 3 -
. 2.. 1). 2),.. 2000 9 7 9 72 5. 3) ', 1) (region) (functional region) (J. P. Blair, 1996. L ocal E conom ic D evelop m ent: A naly sis and P ractice. London : Sage. p. 4). 2) urban city. urban ( : urbanism) city (Louis Wirth. 1938, Urbanism as a way of life. T he A m erican J ournal of S ociology, p. 4). 3) -. (city),. - 4 -
.,,. -. 4) (empirical analysis). (national average approach), (shift- share analysis). 5) (cross- sectional analysis) (time- series analysis) OLS., 1, 2,. 3 4), -, (Dimitrios D. 1996, T he Dynamics of Cities, Routledge: London, p. 17). 5).. - 5 -
( ) ( ). 4, 3. 5,. 6. - 6 -
. 1.. 8 16,, (N. Kleniewski, 1997: 51-64).. ( ),, (R. D. McKenzie, 1967: 351)..,,. (localization effect) (urbanization effect) (J. P. Blair, 1995: 95-102). - 7 -
, ( ),.,,. (C. K. Kim, 1990: 7). Fordism. Post-Fordism. (technopolis). (R. W. Preer, 1992: 5)., (R. W. Preer, 1992: 6-8). - 8 -
2. 2.1., (W. K. K. Davies & D. P. Donoghue, 1993),. (J. J. Friedmann, 1995).,, 6). Allan Rodgers.. (balanced)', 6). G. A. Carlino Alan Evans Chinitz. Carlino,, Evan s (Comparison of Agglomeration: Or What Chinitz really said: A Reply. Urban S tudies, 1986. Longman.) - 9 -
.,, (specialization) (A. Rogers, 1957: 16). Rodgers..,, (ibid, p. 17). Rodgers,.. Post- Fordism (economy of scope) (economy of scale). Birch 1969 1976 5 6 (establishments) 7),, ( ) 66% 20, 80% 100 (P. K. Eisinger, 1988: 238-239)., 7) Birch (establishments) (firms),. (branch). - 10 -
.. Rodgers. Benton, Madison, Washington Daniel G. Williams(1983),.,. J. U. Marshall(1975) Ullman Dacey (minimum requirements profile),,.,.,. - 11 -
2.2,..., (A. Rogers, 1957: 17).. Marshall. 5 '. 3. 3.1-12 -
Mclaughlin 1931. 1919 1927 14 (G. E. Mclaughlin, 1931). 1938 R. C. Tress England Wales 5 144. (R. C. Tress, 1938). P. S. Florence(1942)... A. Rogers(1957) 1957 93 1950 22. (seasonal),. 1955 Steingenga.. Tress. 1960 Ullman Dacey (Minimum Requirements Approach). SIC '. - 13 -
,. 400 (E. L. Ullman & M. F. Dacey, 1969). 1974 Conroy 1958 1967 52 SMSA 118 SIC 3- digit (portfolio variance). (covariance). 42.2% (M. E. Conroy, 1974). 1975 J. U. Marshall Gini 10,000 108. (J. U. Marshall, 1975). 1981 Kort (Entropy Maximization Approach). Goldfeld- Quant (J. R. Kort, 1981). 3.2,, - 14 -
/. Ullman Dacey, Kort, Gini Marshall.,. 1983 Norcliff 4, (free- standing cities) (, 1992: 13). 1978 1987,,,,.,,.,, (, ) (C. K. Kim, 1990).. (1995) (Ogive ) - 15 -
( ),. 8),,.(, 1999). / (, 1998) (, 1997).,,. 8),. - 16 -
. 1. (RIS) (REF),. OLS,. 1981 1996 5.... R E F i = + R IS i + i...(1) R E F i ; R IS i i ; ; i.. R E F i = + 1 R IS i + 2 CS + 3 M C + i...(2) CS(City Size) M C(Metropolitan City) ;, 1, 2, 3 ; - 17 -
(1).,. R E F i = + 1 R IS i + 2 CS + 3 YD + i...(3 ) YD (Year Dummy) ; (2). (1), (2) (3). L og ( R E F i ) = + L og ( R IS i ) + i...(4 ) L og ( R E F i ) = + 1L og ( R IS i ) + 2 CS + i...(5 ) L og ( R E F i ) = + 1L og ( R IS i ) + 2 CS + 3 YD + i...(6) Log( R E F i ) Log( R IS i ) R E F i R IS i,. 2. (RIS ) 2.1-18 -
.,,. 2.1.1 1) (National Average Approach) D 1 = J j = 1 ( X j - X * j ) / X * j X j j ; X * j j ; J ; Florence.. 2) Ogive D 2 = J j = 1 [ ( X j - X ** j )/ X ** j ] X ** j 1/J ; X j J. Tress, Rogers. 3) Gini G j = N - 1 i = 1 ( C i D i + 1 - D i C i + 1 ) 10, 000 G j j ; C i (location quotients) j (successive cumulated percentage of industries) ; D i ; N. 1975 Marshall 9). - 19 -
4) (Minimum Requirements Approach). a b. M i = a i + b i L n P i, i=1, 2,, J M i ; P i.. D = ( n i = 1 n ( P i - M i ) 2 M i n P i - M i) 2 i = 1 i = 1 n M i i = 1 P i i ; M i i. Ullman Dacey, Bahl 10) 5) (Simple Percentage Approach). 1931 Mclaughlin. 9) Marshall (mean absolute deviation index ) Gini., Lorenz,. 10) Bahl SIC 14 Ullman 41 (R. W. Bahl. 1971. Industrial Diver sity in Urban Areas: Alternative Measure and Intermetropolitan Comparisons. E conom ic Geog rap hy Vol 47. N o 14. p. 415) - 20 -
6) (Industrial Portfolio Approach), (portfolio variance). p = w i w j ij i j w i w j i j ; ij i j.. ij = 1 N - 2 N t = 1 y it - i it y j t - j j t it ; j t i j y it y j t i j ; i j i j. Conroy. 7) (Entropy Maximization Approach) D j = J j = 1 ( X ij X i )Log ( 1 X ij / X i ) = - J j = 1 ( X ij X j )Log( X ij X i ) X ij i j ; X i i ; Log (natural logarithm). Kort. 2.1.2 (REI: Regional Economic Instability), REI REI. - 21 -
(cross- sectional) (H. L. Brewer, 1985: 463).,.. Conroy... ' 11)., (portfolio variance) (M. E. Conroy, 11), (basic)'. (M. E. Conroy. T he concept and measurement of regional industrial diversification. University of T exas Press. p. 494) (self- sufficient city) (R. T. Pratt. 1968. An appraisal of the Minimum Requirements T echnique. E conom ic Geograp hy. Vol 44. N o. 2. p. 118). - 22 -
1974: 496). Ogive,.... Conroy,. Bort(1961: 170),. Bort.,., (R. W. Bahl, 1971: 419). - 23 -
. (shift- share analysis),. 2.2 (RIS ) ;.. R IS i = J j = 1 [ ( E i,j / E i ) - ( N E j / N E ) ]/ ( N E j / N E )...(7 ) R IS i i ; E i, j i j ; E i i ; N E i j ; N E ; J. (7), (RIS)., (1000 ) 10% X. A X A (100 ) 90% RIS 8. A X A 10% RIS 0. RIS - 24 -
. 3. (REF ) ; 3.1 (Shift- Share Analy sis ) 3.1.1 12).,. 1960, (shift- share analysis). (B. H. Stevens & C. L. Moore, 1980: 419).,. 12). (location quotients) ( ). - 25 -
..,,., d : (national growth) g, (industry-mix) m, (competitive) c. j i. d ij = g ij + m ij + c ij (employment: E ). d ij = E * ij - E ij g ij = E ij r N m ij = E ij ( r in - r N ) c ij = E ij ( r ij - r in ) E * ij j i ; E ij j i. j i. - 26 -
d ij = E ij r N + E ij ( r in - r N ) + E ij ( r ij - r in ) (a) d ij j i ; E ij j i ; r N ; r in i ; r in j i.,,. j i j i, ( m ij + c ij ). 3.1.2 1942 D. C. Creamer, 1960 (Ashby, Dunn, Fuchs, Perloff ) (H. W. Herzog, Jr. & R. J. Olsen, 1977: 441).,.. - 27 -
13).,,.,,,,..., (J. P. Blair, 1995: 148)., (H. W. Herzog, Jr. & R. J. Olsen, 1977: 444).., (B. H. Stevens & C. L. Moore, 1980: 419-422). 13). 1997.. ;. p. 325-326 - 28 -
,., (allocation effect) (competitive effect) (Allocation Effect Model) Esteban- Marquillas( E-M)(1972) ( Ê ij ) 14), c ij a ij,. c ij = Ê ij ( r ij - r i, N ) a ij = ( E ij - Ê ij )( r ij - r i, N ) (a). d ij = E ij r N + E ij ( r i, N - r N ) + Ê ij ( r ij - r i, N ) + ( E ij - Ê ij )( r ij - r i, N ) E- M, 14) (homothetic) ( Ê ij ) j i, (location quotient) 0. ( Ê ij ) Ê ij = E j ( E i,n / E N ). (J. M. E steban- Marquillas. 1972. A Reinterpretation of Shift - Share Analy sis. R eg ional and Urban E conom ics, Vol. 2. p. 251). - 29 -
1 Code N o. ( a ij ) (component s ) ( E ij - Ê ij ) ( r ij - r i, N ) 1 - + - 2 + - - 3 - - + 4 + + +, 1. E- M,. H. W. Herzog, Jr R. J. Olsen E- M Knoxville BEA 34 E- M, (H. W. Herzog, Jr. & R. J. Olsen, 1977) 15). E- M 15) H. W. Herzog, Jr. and R. J. Olsen. 1977. ibid. - 30 -
, 16). H. K. Stokes. K. E. Haynes Z. B. Machunda(1987). B. S. Sihag C. C. McDonough(1989), (International Shift- Share Analysis). (Forecasting T echnique ) D. C. Creamer, 17). 16) (region- to- region) (industry - to- industry) (additivity property) Haynes Machunda., j j? i i? (K. E. Haynes and Z. B. Machunda. 1987. Consideration in Extending Shift - Share Analy sis: Note. Growth and Chang e, Vol. 18, N o. 2, p.71.) 17 Ashby Houston. Ashby Houston, (B. H. Stevens and C. L. Moore. 1980. ibid, p. 422). - 31 -
. H. J. Brown. (constant) M. Beaud (ingrow Model) (super ingrow model).. R S i ] t + 1 t = R S i ] t t - 1 (b) e t + 1 i - e t i = e t i[ ( E t i/ E t - 1 i ) - 1] (c) e t + 1 i - e t i = e t i[ ( E t + 1 i / E t i) - 1] (d) E t + 1 i i. (b) Beaud, (c), (d). Brown(1969) 1947 1963, 16 SMSA (SIC) 2-digit 4- digit Theil,. Brown (Hellman and Marcus, Hewings, Zimmerman) 18). 18) Hellman Marcus (constant share of national Employment), (fixed ration of employment to regional population), (implicit shift - share), ( ) (explicit shift - share),, - 32 -
,. Stevens Moore, ( ) ( R S i ),, 5 (B. H. Stevens & C. L. Moore, 1980: 429). 3.1.3. E- M,,., ( ) ( + ),.,, (D. A. Hellman. 1976. Shift - Share Models as Predictive T ools. Growth and Chang e. Vol. 7. - 33 -
.,.,.. H. Tervo P. Okko(1983) Moore- Rhodes. (M. D. Partridge & D. S. Rickman, 1999), 19) (covariance anlysis) (S. D. Gerking & J. L. Barrington, 1981).. (REI:Regional Economic Instability) (Siegel, Conroy, Kort). 19) Brown, Floyd Sirmans Paraskevopoulos. - 34 -
Siegel.. R E I i = T t = 1 [ ( Y it - i i T - 1 ) 2 ] 1/ 2 R E I i i ; Y it ; i i. Siegel, 20). Siegel,. Siegel,,. Siegel 20) 2 (C. K. Kim. 1990. Economic Diver sity and Stability of Growth: U.S Metropolitan Regions, 1978-1987). - 35 -
. 3.2 ; (t) (t+1) (REF). R E F i, t. t + 1 = J j = 1 ( E i, j, t. t + 1 / E i, j, t ) - ( N j, t. t + 1 / N j, t ) ( E i, j, t / E i, t )...(8 ) R E F i, t. t + 1 i ; E i, j, t. t + 1 i j ; N j, t. t + 1 j ; E i, j, t i j ; E i, t i ; N i, t ; J. REF,. (a ). d ij = E ij r N + E ij ( r in - r N ) + E ij ( r ij - r in )...(a),, - 36 -
. (t) (t+1) REF. E i, t + 1 = N S i + IM i + R S i...(8-1) 21) (8-1),. (REF) ( R S i ),. (8-1) ( R S i ). R S i, t = [ ( E i, t + 1 / E i, t ) - ( N i, t + 1 / N i, t ) ] E i, t...(8-2) (8-2), Ashby. (B. H. Stevens & C. L. 21). N S i = E i, t ( N t + 1 / N t ) IM i = E i, t [ ( N i, t + 1 / N i, t ) - ( N t + 1 / N t ) ] R S i = E i, t [ ( E i, t + 1 / E i, t ) - ( N i, t + 1 / N i, t ) ] REF - 37 -
Moore, 1980: 420-422). (8-2) (j ). R S i,j, t. t + 1 = [ ( E i, j, t. t + 1 / E i, t ) - ( N j, t. t + 1 / N t ) ] ( E i, j, t / E i, t )...(8-3 ) (j ) (8-2). (8-2) ( E i, t ) (8-3) j ( E i, j, t / E i, t ). (8-3). R S i, t. t + 1 = J j = 1 [ ( E i, j, t. t + 1 / E i, j, t ) - ( N j, t. t + 1 / N j, t ) ] ( E i, j, t / E i, t )...(8 ) (8),,, (8-3). (8) REF (8), - 38 -
,. REF, REF,. REF. - 39 -
. 1. 5 1981, 1986, 1991. 1996 1991,. 3- digit, 2- digit. 1996, 3- digit 5- digit, 31 2- digit. (1),. 15. 1996 70, 51. 51 15 ( ),, 15-40 -
.. ( ).. 1995,. 1996, ( :, ). 5 ( : ). 1985 1981, 1982 5.. (2). 1980 1995 5. 1, 1980 1. - 41 -
2. ( RIS: Regional Industrial Structure) ( REF: Regional Economic Fluctuation),, 1980 1990 22). RIS 1981 1996. REF,,.,.,,...., 22) RIS REF Lotus, SAS. - 42 -
. Duranton Puga (2000), (stylised fact).,., /,.,. (, 1995). RIS REF (outlier). (, 1999) 23),. 23) 1. - 43 -
. 1.. (RIS ) (REF ), 1981 1996 5. 15,. 1.1 RIS REF 1.1.1 RIS RIS REF 2-1 2-2. RIS,. 2-1, RIS 51 (58.475), (6.040), (3.312), (2.813), (1.323), (1.263). - 44 -
2-1 51 RIS ( ) R IS 198 1 1986 1991 1996 0.453 0.215 0.226 0.190 0.27 1 0.512 0.395 0.168 0.199 0.318 0.265 0.200 0.199 0.233 0.224 0.224 0.120 0.133 0.047 0.13 1 1.137 0.716 0.540 0.348 0.685 0.500 0.473 0.401 0.256 0.408 0.498 0.324 0.331 0.347 0.375 2.438 1.331 0.832 0.451 1.263 0.477 0.649 0.320 0.373 0.455 1.228 0.895 0.925 0.402 0.862 0.873 0.798 0.538 0.506 0.679 0.314 0.363 0.284 0.406 0.342 0.831 1.286 0.906 1.041 1.016 0.254 0.411 0.892 0.236 0.448 0.334 0.256 0.293 0.151 0.259 0.596 0.562 0.454 0.331 0.486 54.487 54.025 67.320 58.068 58.475 1.987 1.480 0.830 0.538 1.209 0.828 0.832 0.876 0.548 0.77 1 0.131 0.076 0.059 0.055 0.080 0.382 0.356 0.233 0.144 0.279 0.984 0.643 0.545 0.270 0.610 0.288 0.147 0.109 0.136 0.170 0.580 0.496 0.458 0.314 0.462 0.54 1 10.275 0.320.,. - 45 -
RIS 1981 1986 1991 1996 0.239 0.221 0.371 0.194 0.256 0.975 0.704 0.405 0.272 0.589 0.466 0.420 0.340 0.196 0.356 0.675 0.499 0.378 0.343 0.474 0.523 0.591 0.505 0.457 0.519 0.579 0.478 0.379 0.272 0.427 1.240 0.946 0.451 0.355 0.748 0.560 0.562 0.456 0.267 0.46 1 1.651 4.981 2.946 3.669 3.312 11.450 6.536 4.424 1.747 6.040 0.593 0.363 0.335 0.296 0.397 0.310 0.321 0.197 0.127 0.239 0.429 0.425 0.446 0.313 0.403 1.754 1.701 0.957 0.879 1.323 0.465 1.458 0.506 0.261 0.672 0.542 0.895 0.186 0.268 0.473 0.243 0.306 0.084 0.142 0.194 0.199 0.135 1.063 0.155 0.388 4.955 3.600 1.700 0.996 2.813 0.490 0.485 0.293 0.448 0.429 0.580 0.413 0.545 0.203 0.436 0.506 0.505 0.613 0.217 0.460 0.541 0.406 0.385 0.994 0.58 1 1.230 0.819 0.818 0.379 0.812 0.881 1.110 0.846 0.886 0.930 0.616 0.514 0.653 0.384 0.542 0.598 0.706 0.734 0.551 0.647 0.794 1.037 0.594 1981 RIS 90 1996 RIS - 46 -
. 1990 RIS.,, 1, 1. 2-2 REF ( REF : 0.186). RIS 6 RIS 1.1 24). RIS ( ) (10.275) (0.320).,. RIS,. 1981 1996 RIS,. 24) RIS (1.209), RIS (0.080) RIS 1.129. RIS 6. - 47 -
2-2 51 REF ( ) R E F 198 1-86 1986-9 1 199 1-96 0.365 0.264 0.262 0.297 0.454 0.305 0.567 0.442 0.248 0.253 0.238 0.246 0.289 0.215 0.233 0.246 0.764 0.251 0.174 0.397 0.543 0.387 0.238 0.390 0.365 0.228 0.184 0.259 2.881 0.789 0.471 1.380 0.696 0.252 3.737 1.562 0.522 0.457 1.351 0.777 0.404 0.373 0.455 0.410 0.299 0.399 0.286 0.328 1.376 0.256 0.409 0.680 0.489 0.337 0.473 0.433 0.373 0.178 0.492 0.347 0.145 0.201 0.536 0.294 0.164 0.113 0.282 0.186 0.312 0.373 0.173 0.286 0.295 0.219 0.293 0.269 0.454 0.210 0.170 0.278 0.314 0.387 0.485 0.395 0.291 0.209 0.598 0.366 0.237 0.255 1.298 0.597 0.562 0.265 0.244 0.357 0.57 0 0.3 02 0.399-48 -
RE F 1981-86 1986-91 199 1-96 0.236 0.410 0.233 0.293 0.357 0.300 0.273 0.310 0.302 0.131 0.146 0.193 0.249 0.237 0.297 0.26 1 0.356 0.322 0.686 0.455 0.315 0.231 0.183 0.243 0.232 0.286 0.222 0.246 0.266 0.290 0.496 0.35 1 1.438 1.096 0.407 0.980 0.375 0.296 0.304 0.325 0.292 0.258 1.089 0.547 0.295 0.238 0.383 0.305 0.286 0.199 0.368 0.284 0.103 0.542 0.252 0.299 0.302 0.293 0.405 0.333 0.614 0.547 1.080 0.747 0.504 0.389 0.357 0.416 0.270 0.261 0.207 0.246 0.226 0.538 0.257 0.340 0.359 0.218 0.285 0.287 0.399 0.451 1.149 0.666 0.397 0.585 1.020 0.667 0.315 0.220 0.287 0.274 0.976 2.039 0.356 1.124 0.538 0.424 0.371 0.444 0.270 0.265 0.178 0.238 0.252 0.235 0.237 0.24 1 0.37 0 0.456 0.24 0-49 -
1.1.2 REF REF,. 2-2 (1981 1986, 1986 1991, 1991 1996) 51 REF., REF 1981 1986 1991 1996 1986 1991. (1.562) (1.380), (1.124), (0.980) (0.186). ( ), (0.570) (0.456) REF.,. 1991 1996, 1981 1986, 1986 1991 REF,. REF RIS, RIS,,. 1.2 RIS REF 3-1 RIS REF - 50 -
.. RIS REF (, 1999). 51 25).. (1995),. 3 51 RIS REF (P ears on Corr.) RE F 8 186 R E F 869 1 RE F 9 196 RIS 198 1-0.07157 (0.6177) - 0.09216 (0.5201) - 0.07204 (0.6154) RIS 1986-0.06097 (0.6708) - 0.07830 (0.5850) - 0.06457 (0.6526) RIS 199 1-0.08122 (0.5710) - 0.10133 (0.4793) - 0.06176 (0.6668) 25) 51, 1981 (31,140 ) (386,751 ), 10. - 51 -
1.3 RIS REF RIS REF,,..,,. RIS (R. W. Bahl, 1971) 26).., 50 1981 10 (7 ), 10 20 (29 ), 20 (14 )..,. 26) /. Henderson (1997), ( 50 ), ( 5 50 ) (mature) (,,, ). - 52 -
. RIS REF. RIS,, RIS REF 27),. 1.3.1 1.3.1.1 RIS REF 4-1 50 RIS REF. 1986 RIS REF 0.1,. RIS REF. F 1986 1991 0.1,. 1981 1991, 1991 1996. 27) RIS. 1.867 8.138 0.047 67.320 0.734 1.134 0.047 11.450-53 -
4-1 50 RIS REF RE F : (t ) 198 1-1986 1986-199 1 199 1-1996 Int erc e pt 0.437 (6.111) 0.307 (6.129) 0.545 (5.136) RIS 0.028 (0.749) 0.070* (2.005) - 0.074 (- 0.66) R - s qu are F N 0.012 0.561 50 0.077 4.018* 50 0.009 0.440 50 * : 0.1 4-2 RE F : (t ) 198 1-1986 1986-199 1 199 1-1996 In t er - c ept 0.380 (3.035) 0.212 (2.648) 0.557 (3.304) R IS 0.030 (0.801) 0.067* (1.952) - 0.076 (- 0.674) S C 0.263 (1.300) 0.050 (0.388) - 0.146 (- 0.553) M C 0.031 (0.218) 0.156* (1.712) 0.017 (0.090) R - s qu. F N 0.051 0.820 50 0.137 2.426* 50 0.019 0.297 50 * SC MC : 0.1 : 10 7 : 10 20 29 1.3.1.2 RIS,. - 54 -
R E F i = + 1 R IS i + 2 CS + i...(2-1) (p. 18) (CS), RIS REF 4-2. R- square,. 1981 1986, 1986 1991 RIS 90%, 10 20 30 REF 90%,. 1986 1991 10 20. 1.3.1.3 RIS (M C),. R E F i = + 1 R IS i + 2 CS + 3 M C + i...(2) 4-3.., R- square, (SC) 1991 1996-55 -
.,, 1991 1996. 4-3 R E F : (t ) 198 1-1986 1986-199 1 199 1-1996,,, Int erc ept 0.247 (1.180) 0.168 (1.189) 0.587 (2.048) RIS 0.041 (1.092) 0.059 (1.622) - 0.054 (- 0.447) S C 0.312 (1.557) 0.063 (0.467) - 0.147 (- 0.539) M C 0.107 (0.734) 0.162 (1.658) 0.041 (0.208) 0.333 (1.492) 0.053 (0.354) 0.102 (0.335) 0.024 (0.107) 0.027 (0.173) - 0.254 (- 0.798) - 0.033 (- 0.147) 0.110 (0.724) - 0.041 (- 0.134) - 0.105 (- 0.381) - 0.090 (- 0.483) - 0.161 (- 0.426). R - s q. F N 0.182 1.331 50 0.177 1.288 50 0.072 0.467 50 * SC MC : 0.1 : 10 7 : 10 20 29-56 -
. 1.3.1.4. RIS REF 4-4 In t erc ept RIS S C M C 198 1 1986 R - s qu are F N RE F : (t ) 0.431 (4.911) 0.029 (1.010) 0.058 (0.490) 0.069 (0.831) - 0.044 (- 0.497) - 0.137 (- 1.546) 0.027 0.802 150 SC MC : 10 7 : 10 20 29. R E F i = + 1 R IS i + 2 CS + 3 YD + i...(3 ) YD (Year Dummy), (2). - 57 -
4-4, REF. 1981 1986, RIS REF., 1986 28). (, 1997) RIS REF, RIS REF. 1.3.2 1.3.2.1,. RIS REF,. L og ( R E F i ) = + L og ( R IS i ) + i...(4) 28) 1986 Prob T 0.1244, 90%. - 58 -
L og ( R E F i ) = + 1L og ( R IS i ) + 2 CS + + i...(5 ) (4) (5) RIS REF. 5-1., RIS REF R- square 1991 1996 REF 29). 5-1 Log (RE F ): (t ) 198 1-1986 1986-199 1 199 1-1996 In t erc ept - 0.907 (- 9.919) - 0.845 (- 5.036) - 1.005 (- 13.645) - 1.140 (- 8.536) - 1.013 (- 7.572) - 1.328 (- 6.045) Log (R IS ) 0.131 (1.323) 0.139 (1.355) 0.246** (3.454) 0.223** (3.056) - 0.046 (- 0.389) - 0.098 (- 0.818) S C 0.008 (0.031) - 0.050 (- 0.251) 0.193 (0.629) M C - 0.103 (- 0.548) 0.223 (1.560) 0.425* (1.946) R- squa F N 0.035 1.749 50 0.044 0.702 50 0.199 11.931** 50 0.262 5.430** 50 0.003 0.151 50 0.082 1.364 50 ** * SC MC : 0.05 : 0.1 : 10 7 : 10 20 29 29), R- square 0.012, 0.077, 0.009, 5-1) 0.035, 0.199, 0.003. - 59 -
, RIS REF 0.1 0.5, 1991 1996 0.1. 1986 1991 0.5,, 1991 1996. 1986 1991, 1991 1996. 1.3.2.2 RIS REF. RIS,, 1986 1991,. L og ( R E F i ) = + 1L og ( R IS i ) + 2 CS + 3 YD + i...(6 ) (4) YD (Year Dummy), 5-2. RIS 0.1 REF - 60 -
, ( 10 20 29 ) 0.1. 1986 0.1 5-2 In t erc ept Log (RIS ) S C M C 198 1 1986 R - s qu are F N * : 0.1 SC : 10 7 MC : 10 20 29 Log (RE F ): (t ),, - 1.010 (- 7.999) 0.097* (1.677) 0.052 (0.338) 0.180* (1.665) - 0.025 (- 0.219) - 0.193* (- 1.709) 0.069 2.136* 150., 1986 1991. 2. 2.1. - 61 -
RIS REF, /,. RIS REF RIS REF. REF, ( 10 20 29 ), 1986,. 6 R E F : (t ) * SC MC Int erc e pt RIS S C M C 198 1 1986 R - s q F N 0.431 (4.911) 0.029 (1.010) 0.058 (0.490) 0.069 (0.831) - 0.044 (- 0.497) - 0.137 (- 1.546) 0.027 0.802 150 : 0.1 : 10 7 : 10 20 30-1.010 (- 7.999) 0.097* (1.677) 0.052 (0.338) 0.180* (1.665) - 0.025 (- 0.219) - 0.193* (- 1.709) 0.069 2.136* 150-62 -
6.. RIS REF 0.1, 1986 1991 0.1.,. RIS 1986 1991 0.1. 0.1. 6 RIS, 0.1, 0.1, 1986 0.1 (- ). 2.2 50,. 5 40, 10 20-63 -
. 1986., 1980,,,. 1980,. 1980, 1990. RIS REF 10 15 30), 1986 1990. 1986 (- ). 1,. 30) C. K. Kim (1999 ) RIS REF, 10 15. - 64 -
1 RIS REF Regional Economic Fluctuations 0 Regional Industrial Specialization :, 1999: - B- 2-15,,,,,. (, 1999). - 65 -
. 1. 1.1,.,, (pooling)..,,. 10 20,. 1986 (- ). - 66 -
....,,. 1.2,.,. RIS REF,. RIS REF - 67 -
.,.... 1, (,, ) (, ),. RIS RIS REF 1,.,,, 1. - 68 -
2.. 1991 10,.,,.,..,.,,. - 69 -
..,.. LA,,. (aura)' (entrepreneurial)... - 70 -
1.. (1992).. 27 2.. (1993). :., 11.. (1995).. 29 1.. (2000). :. 12 2.. (1997).. :.. (1997).... (1995)..... (1998).... (1996)... (1996)... (1998).. 1996.. (1996)... (1996)... (1996)... (1996)... (1996)... (1996)... (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995)... (1981, 1986, 1991)... (1996)..
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(1): (2):
(1 ) 11. 01., 12. 02., 13. B. 21. 10. 23. 13. 29. 31. 32., 33., 11., 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.,, 20. ( ) 361. 34., 21., 22., 23., 35.,,, 24. 25. 36. 26. 37. 1 27. 1 28. (, ) 29. 30., 31. 38., 32., 33.,, 34. 35. 39. 369. 37.
41., 40., 42. 41. 51. 52. 62. F. 501. 503. 51. 63. 504. 505. 52. ( ) - )526. ( ) 63. 55. 71. 60. 61. 62. 63. 72. 64. 81. 82. 65. 671. 83. 70. 66. 672. 84. 71. 72. 74. 92. 90. 93. 73. 80. 85. 91. 94. 92., 95. 502. 526. ( ) 93. 95.
1.. 75., 2. 19 203. : 407 19 204. : 2495 36 10 1. : 7611 5 0 12. : 49092
(2 ) 198 1 1986 199 1 1996 + + + +
198 1 1986 199 1 1996 + + + + + + + + + + +
A b s t a c t A n E m piric al A n aly s i s o n t h e R e l at io n s h ip s B e t w e e n R e g io n al In du s t ri al S t ru c t u re an d R e g io n al E c o n o m ic F lu c t u at io n : F o c u s e d o n K o re an Cit y, 19 8 1-19 96. K w an g h y o k Y an g, M a s t e r of A rt s in D e p artm e n t of P u b lic A dm in i s t ration Gra du at e S c h o o l o f In h a U n iv e r s ity T his study empirically analy zed the relation s betw een r egional indu strial specialization an d regional econom y flu ctuation in the K orean cities for the period 1981 to 1996. National av erage appr oach m ea sur es of in du strial specialization an d r ev ised m odel of shift - share analy sis for m ea sures of indu strial fluctuation are caculat ed for all K or ean cities th at could be an aly s ed for em pirical oper ation s. Empirical analy ses show the r esult s a s follow s. Fir st, Regional indu strial structur e affect s positiv e r elation ship to r egional economic fluctuation, clearly non - linear rather than lin ear r elation ships.
S econ d, In ca se of city dum m ies, only th e m edium size popu lation cities (popu lation s fr om 100,000 t o 200,000) sh ow ed a st atistically significant r elation ships betw een indu strial stru ctur es and economic fluctuation s. T hird, 1986 y ear dummy is also show n a statistically significant relation ships betw een RIS and REF index es w ith n egativ e sign. Empirical result s indicate that higher the indu strial specialization in m anufacturing, higher the r egional economic flu ctuation s for K orean cities. H ow ev er the pattern is non - linear ; the economic fluctuation s is stable relativ ely div er sified indu strial structures, but specialization effect of r elativ ely div er sified indu strial environm ent s could also giv e stability to regional economy. T hese an aly sis strongly support s Kim ' s argum ent that the div er sification policies to reduce the econom ic fluctu ation is not appropriate since the policy effect m ight b e so sm all com par ed t o th e inv estm ent cost.