2006 1

< > < > 1 3 1 3 2 8 3 19 4 34 41 < > 45

< > <1> <2> <3> <4> <5> <6> 2000~2001 13 18 28 28 OECD 29 33 < 1>, 3 < 2> 5 < 3>,, 8 < 4> 2000 9 < 5> 10 < 6> 1999~2000 12 < 7> 12 < 8> 14 < 9> 2000~2001 15 < 10> 2004 17 < 11> 1999 17 < 12> 18 < 13> 20 < 14>,, 21 < 15> OECD 21 < 16> 22 < 17> 23 < 18> 24

< 19> _ (2003) (2005) 25 < 20> _ (2005) 25 < 21> 26 < 22> 27 < 23> 29 < 24> 30 < 25> 31 < 26> 32 < 27> 33 < 28> 34 < 29> 35 < 30> 36 40

< > 10~20, 1946~1965, 3 2000, 161% ( 5%) (15%) 201% (7%) (30%),, 3, 40 i

ii,, 50 40,, 10~20,

I,,,,,,,,,, 1029 (2003 ), 831 (2005) 2005 500~1000 (Life Cycle Hypothesis), 10~20 (Asset Meltdown Hypothesis) 1

1990 (adaptive),,, 2

II 1 (F Modigliani) 1950~1970, < 1>, () () 0 : 0% () (hump) (< 1> ) 3

4 (-) ( > ) (+) ( < ) (Deaton, 2005), (1 ) ( ), 3 (< 2> ) 1990,

1980 (1946~1964 ) (40~64) 2006~2010 < 2> ( ) (%) 2000 34 1600 1200 800 400 40~60 () S&P500 () 32 30 28 26 0 24 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 : Poterba(2004), p47 Figure 3, (-) (Dissaving), () U (stock) 5

, 20 40,, 6

, (OECD), ( ),,, 3, 7

,, 2 (1),, (< 3> ) 1955~1963 1946~1964, 1947~1949 120 100 80 60 40 < 3>,, ( ) (1947~49 ) (1946~63 ) -1955~1963-20 (1946~64 ) 0 1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 : 100 1959, 1951~46 :,, 8

1946~1965 (2000 35~54) 10~20 293%, 294%, 278% (2) < 4> 2000 (%) 47 40 38 35 37 25 26 11 02 03 19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60 : :, 2000, 2001 4 2000 161%(< 4> ) 2000 20% 35~54 581% 116%(20% 581%) 449% 647% 9

291%(449% 647%) 263%, 161% 2004 10% 2004 40~59 56%, 116% 2004 39~58 1990 1999 < 5> (%) 313 289 344 322 308 311 259 263 264 255 280 234 245 208 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 : 20001 :,, 200020% 200415% 2000 322% 2002311%, 2003 28%, 2004245% 2000 195% 2004(40~59 ) 148% 10

1995473%, 2000581%, 2004(40~59) 559% 2000, 2000 20% 2000 ( - ) 193% 193% 100%, 193% 2000 201% 1999~2000 10% Fact book ( ) 19993 189%, 20003 180% 1999 (,,, ) 30~50 358% 1999 3008%, 4017%, 50 39% 30, 4025%, 40, 5056%, 30~5064%, 5% 11

< 6> 1999 (%) 58 56 39 17 01 08 30 30~39 40~49 50~59 60~69 70 : 1999 2000 10 1 2000 3 : 3 1995225% 2000202%, 2004242% 30~50 72% (2000 203%) < 7> (%) 237 239 229 225 217 214 206 203 202 222 230 246 242 203 207 200 199 195 194 190 189 180 194 197 206 205 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 :, :, Fact Book 2005 12

2001 37% 2001 ( 5~12) 35~54( 1 ) 429% 2001 35~44125%, 45~54 249% 374% 2000 ( 581%, 647%) <1> 2001 (%) C ( i ) a j B ( ) ( i ) (2001 1000 ) 35 227 489 7 45 35~44 223 595 275 125 45~54 206 592 50 249 55~64 132 571 812 267 65~74 107 392 150 176 75 104 342 120 137 : A i, B i, C i, n A B C i i i i= 1 ( A ) a j (, a j = n n A j B j C j / Ai Bi Ci = a j B j C j / i= 1 ai Bi Ci i= 1 : Federal Reserve, Recent Changes in US Family Finances: Evidence From the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances A j / A ) 2000 615% 13

Flow of Fund (Household) (household) (nonprofit organizations) 2000 ( + ) 876% 2001 401%2000 263% 2000615%, 2001598% (2000322%) 2000 686% 557%, (private pension fund), (government retirement fund) 80% < 8> (%) 70 + / + 60 50 40 / + 30 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 : Flow of Fund 20%, 30% 2001 15% 2000 161% 14

2000 23% (2000 195%, 2004148%) 686% 208%( ), 30% < 9>2000~ 2001 (%) 100 107 50 71 55 18 35 35~44 45~54 55~64 65~74 75 : Federal Reserve, Recent Changes in US Family Finances: Evidence From the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances, 2000 161%, 195%, 201%, 2000 1999~2000 5%, 7% 2000~2001 15% 23%, 30% 15

(), (2), 2003 1029 2004 2005215 2004 1999, 2001 (Survey of Consumer Finances) 2000, 2004 42% 58% 2004 40~59( 39~58) ( ) ( ) 422%58% 2005 2005 16

< 10> 2004 (%) 147 191 340 231 240 238 154 20 27 72 30 30~39 40~49 50~59 60 : 2004 12 31 :,, 2005 215 < 11> 1999 (%) 219 268 259 195 248 248 138 153 145 35 18 74 30 30~39 40~49 50~59 60~69 70 : 1999 2000 1999 30~50 624% 486% 1999 30 138% 40219% 50 268% 200010 30 74% 153% 40 259% 50 17

(, ) (, ), 30~50 2001 464% 100% 35~44206%, 45~54 258% <2> (, %) (2001 1000 ) 35 227 1276 158 399 34 89 35~44 223 1797 1171 678 92 206 45~54 206 2029 1689 762 147 258 55~64 132 1997 1982 832 183 186 65~74 107 1861 3525 825 137 151 75 104 1679 1511 762 152 110 : 2001 5~12 <1> : Federal Reserve, Recent Changes in US Family Finances: Evidence From the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances < 12> (%) 258 89 206 186 151 110 35 35~44 45~54 55~64 65~74 75 : Federal Reserve, Recent Changes in US Family Finances: Evidence From the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances 18

,, 3 464%(2001 45~54), 624%(1999 40~50) 2004 40, 50 58% 2004 40, 50 42%, 30~50 486% 2,, 3,, 19

(1) < 13> (2001 ) 800 600 400 200 1995 2001 0 35 35~44 45~54 55~64 65~74 75 : FRB, Survey of Consumer Finances, 2001, ( - ) (hump) (< 13> ) 1995 2001 55~64, 2001 60 45 15(60 45 ) hump hump hump, 20

< 14>,, 12 10 8 6 4 (1987, ) (1989, ) (1990, ) 2 0 0~ 24 25~ 29 30~ 34 35~ 39 40~ 44 45~ 49 50~ 54 55~ 59 : Poterba ed(1994) 60~ 64 (1979, ) 65~ 69 70~ 74 75~ 79 80+ hump (< 14> ) hump < 15> U hump (Burbidge and Davies, 1994) (< 16>) < 15> OECD (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 30 30~ 34 35~ 39 40~ 44 45~ 49 50~ 54 55~ 59 60~ 64 65~ 69 70~ 74 74 : Poterba ed(1994) 21

22 < 16> (%) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0~ 24 25~ 29 30~ 34 35~ 39 40~ 44 45~ 49 50~ 54 55~ 59 60~ 64 65~ 69 70~ 74 75~ 79 80+ 1979 1984 1989 : Takayama and Kitamura(1994) U U 70, ()

< 17> (%) 35 2004 30 25 20 15 1994 1989 1999 1979 1984 10 5 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 1974 50 54 55 59 60 : 1974 50, 2002 55, 2003 60 :,, U 40 N (< 17> ) 2003, () N (< 18> ) (Synthetic Cohort Analysis) 1969 25 1974 30, 197935 ( ) 20, 40, 50 60 60 M, 23

< 18> (%) 35 69-25~29 30 69-24 25 20 15 69-45~49 69-40~44 10 5 24 25 29 69-30~34 69-35~39 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 50 54 55 59 60 : 69-X 1969 X :,, (2003) (2005) 1997 2002 U (< 19> ) (2005)1990~2000 6, 1990 40 1995 40 U 60 06~1% (cohort effect), U,, 1~8% (< 20> ) 24

< 19> _ ( 2003) (2005) 4 3 (2003) 2 1 (2005) 0 25~ 29 30~ 34 35~ 39 40~ 44 45~ 49 50~ 54 55~ 59 60~ 64 65~ 69 70~ 74 75 : 25~29 1 : (2005) < 20> _ (2005) In(W) 189 187 185 183 181 179 177 175 20 30 40 50 60 70 : (2005), p147 < 4> 40, 50, 25

(2) N N ( ), ( ), (Three Pillars) (< 21> ) (, ), + + + 60~80% 60~80% < 21> 26

2005 40 60% 2047 (< 22> ) 40 60% 50%,, < 22> ( ) 2500000 2000000 2035(1,715 ) 1500000 1000000 500000 2047(0) : 0 > < ( + ) < 1988 2025 2035 :,, 2004, 2005 5 27

2002 707%1998 899%, 96%1998 (<3> ) <3> (%) 1998 81 899-19 01 2002 96 707 182 13 02 : 15 :,, 2002 2005 (<4> ) <4> (%) 2002 645 284 23 336 355 2005 635 288 27 320 365 :,,, N, ( ) 28

, 55~64 (<5> ) 50 (major job) 2 (< 23> ) <5> OECD (%) 55~64 830 755 726 687 679 633 520 470 846 808 779 822 839 810 780 738 : 2003 : OECD, "Economic Outlook", 2004 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 < 23> () : 40 1997~2007 OECD : OECD, "Ageing and Employment Policies: Korea", 2004 50 40, 50 29

50 20% 40 50 (< 24> ) 2004 86% 20~40% 2004 79000 OECD 341%, 16 2003 136,000, 1999 294,000 40 50 40 50 < 24> (%) 138 131 91 84 43 21 37 36 25 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 60 :,, 2004 50 60 30

2003 13484, 393%186% 11 7815 (< 25> ) 301 50, < 25> 2,5106 (186%) 675 (05%) 3,1856 (236%) 1,4308 (106%) 9854 (73%) 5,3048 (393%) :, " ", 2003, 1990 31

491% 509% (Noguchi, 1990 Takayama and Kitamura, 1994 ) 1980 45~80%, (Kotlikoff and Summers, 1981) 1996, 294%418%, 426%1929% < 26> (%) 426 511 701 193 33 64 29 42 : The Institute for Posts and Telecommunications Policy, "A Comparative Survey of Savings in Japan and the United States" 1996 2004 30 313%, 40 203% (< 27> ),,, (<6> ) 32

< 27> (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 15~29 30~39 40~49 50~59 6065 : :,, 2004 <6> : 55 3 :, " " (2004) 3,, 50 40, 33

4 (1) 2000 (< 28> ) 2001 17%1995 5%, < 28> (%) 78 78 81 83 68 63 69 58 74 72 72 22 22 19 17 32 37 31 42 26 28 28 1995 1997 1999 2001 1992 1995 1998 2001 1999 1997 1998 :, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001 SCF (2004) (2005) 34

30 50 10% (, 2005) 60 < 29> (%) 100 90 80 (2003) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20~ 24 25~ 29 (2005) 30~ 34 35~ 39 40~ 44 45~ 49 50~ 54 55~ 59 60~ 64 65~ 69 70~ 74 75 : (2005) 2000 40 109% 60 (< 30> ) (< 31> ) 50 70 (< 32> ) 35

< 30> 40 30 20 (, %) () () 60 50 40 30 10 20 10 0 1920~ 24 25~ 29 30~ 34 35~ 39 40~ 44 45~ 49 50~ 54 55~ 59 60~ 64 65~ 69 70~ 74 0 75 :, 2000 (2005) 40 30 20 10 (, %) () 60 50 40 () 30 20 10 0 0 30 30~39 40~49 50~59 60~69 70 : 1999 1999 701% :, 1999 ;, Fact Book 2002 40 30 20 (, %) () 60 50 40 30 10 () 20 10 0 0 34 35~44 45~54 55~64 65~74 75 : Federal Reserve, Recent Changes in US Family Finances: Evidence From the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances 36

,,, 1~2 (2002 1029, 2005 831 ), 10 2004 10,, 40 37

(2) 20, 2004 20%, ( 17%) (401%),, 2000302% 2004401% 10 2004 89% 2009107% 200428% 2009 51% (, 2005) 38

30% 10% ( 93~119%) (, 2005),, ( ),, 1 (herd behavior), 100% 39

, 1029 (2003), 831 (2005) < 31> (%) 1167 962 983 1006 1012 1022 1076 1106 774 797 824 863 892 917 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2012 : 2000, 2001~2004, 2007, 2012 : 40

III, 50 40,, 40 20,, 41

42 10~20,, 10 10,

, 10, () (Reits) 43

,,,,,, (prudential regulator) 44

< >,, 2005510,,, : 3, 20055,,,,,,,, 2005, Fact Book, 2005,, 2004,, 36 1, 20046, pp 195~221,, LG, 20055, 1999, 2000, 20014, 2004, 20054,,,,, 19, 2005,,,,,, 2005,, 2000,, 2005 2, " ", 2003,, 2004 616 45

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Journal of Political Economy, 99, 1991, pp 1029-1059 Federal Reserve, Recent Changes in US Family Finances: Evidence From the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances, January, 2003 Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill and Martine Quinzii, Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2004 Kotlikoff, Laurence J and Lawrence H Summers, The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation, Journal of Political Economy, 89, 1981, pp 706-32 OECD, "Ageing and Employment Policies: Korea", 2004 OECD, "Economic Outlook", 2004 Park, Daekeun and Changyong Rhee, Saving, Growth, and Demographic Change in Korea, mimeo, 2003 Poterba, James M, Demographic Structure and Asset Returns, Review of Economic Statistics, 83, 2001, pp 565-584 Poterba, James M, The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets", NBER Working Paper, 2004 Poterba, James M ed, International Comparison of Household Saving, The University Of Chicago, 1994 Takayama, Noriyuki and Yukinobu Kitamura, Household Saving Behavior in Japan, James M Poterba ed, International Comparison of Household Saving, The University of Chicago, 1994 The Institute for Posts and Telecommunications Policy, Japan, "A Comparative Survey of Savings in Japan and the United States" 1996 47