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I. Market View
2021 년 2020 년
[ISM 제조업지수, 신흥국 / 선진국상대강도 ] [Economic Surprise Index] (%) EM/DM ISM 제조업 (RHS) (P) 80 70 60 Correlation 0.433 65 40 20 0-20 60 55 50 45 40-40 35-60 89 94 99 04 09 14 19 30 [ 자료 : Bloomberg]
[ 글로벌산업생산 vs. 소매판매추이 ] (2019년 =100) 115 110 105 글로벌소매판매 글로벌산업생산 100 연초이후산업생산은제자리 95 90 85 80 '19.1 '19.4 '19.7 '19.10 '20.1 '20.4 '20.7 '20.10 '21.1 '21.4 [ 자료 : 네덜란드경제분석국, NH 투자증권 ]
[ 자료 : Fred, 중국국가통계국, 유럽통계청, 한국통계청, NH 투자증권 ] [ 주요국산업생산 vs. 소매판매추이 ]
[MSCI 기준지역별밸류에이션, 주당순이익증가율 ] Index Index Chg % PER(x) PBR(x) EPS Grow th(% y-y) Fw d EPS Chg(%) Dividend yield(%) P (P) 1W MTD 1M YTD Fw d FY1 FY2 3yAvg Fw d FY1 FY2 3yAvg FY0 Fw d FY1 FY2 1M 3M 6M FY1 FY2 1 AC World 719.9-2.0-0.6 1.8 11.4 18.1 19.1 17.6 16.8 2.70 2.84 2.64 2.23-11.2 17.0 45.9 8.1 2.4 4.6 11.3 1.9 2.1 2 World Free 750.5-1.7-0.2 2.9 13.9 19.2 20.3 18.8 17.5 2.94 3.09 2.88 2.38-12.7 16.6 44.5 8.1 2.8 5.0 11.7 1.8 1.9 3 N. America 4,470.2-1.4-0.1 3.3 16.7 21.1 22.4 20.7 19.0 4.04 4.31 3.94 3.24-10.0 16.3 44.4 8.2 2.8 4.8 11.9 1.4 1.5 4 Europe 2,052.9-2.2-0.5 3.8 11.6 15.8 16.5 15.5 14.9 2.00 2.07 1.97 1.70-26.0 18.1 53.3 6.9 3.0 5.7 11.2 3.0 3.1 6 Emerging 1,232.4-4.5-3.6-6.4-4.6 12.4 13.1 12.1 12.9 1.65 1.76 1.60 1.54-2.6 18.7 53.2 8.2 0.8 2.6 9.2 2.7 3.0 7 EM Asia 661.3-4.9-3.8-8.0-7.3 13.5 14.3 13.0 13.6 1.72 1.83 1.66 1.58 6.6 17.6 40.2 9.8 0.2 0.7 5.1 2.2 2.4 8 EM Lat Am 2,355.5-5.0-6.1-5.7-3.9 9.2 9.0 9.2 12.4 1.64 1.76 1.58 1.77-35.6 26.4 191.0-1.9 4.1 11.2 32.1 4.5 5.2 9 EM EMEA 272.6-2.2-0.5 2.5 13.0 10.0 10.6 9.7 9.8 1.38 1.45 1.35 1.23-21.0 18.8 64.6 8.5 1.4 6.1 15.2 4.5 5.1 10 USA 4,281.3-1.3 0.1 3.3 16.7 21.6 22.9 21.1 19.3 4.25 4.55 4.15 3.39-8.8 16.2 43.1 8.3 2.9 4.5 11.5 1.3 1.4 11 France 2,372.3-3.6-0.1 4.6 17.6 16.5 17.6 16.0 15.3 1.84 1.91 1.81 1.53-42.2 26.5 90.4 9.6 4.2 7.1 12.3 2.6 2.9 12 Germany 1,137.4-1.2 1.4 3.6 12.3 14.4 15.3 14.1 14.0 1.70 1.78 1.66 1.45-14.5 18.6 52.6 8.5 2.7 4.7 10.9 2.7 2.9 13 UK 1,980.4-2.0 0.1 2.7 9.4 12.1 12.4 12.0 13.0 1.67 1.73 1.64 1.56-36.6 18.9 76.1 3.3 2.7 6.7 15.2 4.2 4.3 14 Australia 1,456.6-2.1 0.5 1.8 13.0 16.5 16.3 17.1 16.8 2.23 2.24 2.16 1.94 31.2 10.2 20.2-4.8 2.2 8.4 19.2 4.4 4.0 15 Japan 1,161.8-2.8-0.1-0.5 5.3 15.0 15.6 14.2 14.6 1.32 1.35 1.27 1.21 21.6 16.5 25.3 9.7 2.1 5.3 11.7 2.2 2.4 16 Hong Kong 17,780.5 0.0-0.5-2.4 4.9 16.7 18.5 16.0 15.4 1.26 1.30 1.24 1.15-25.6 19.0 28.4 16.1-0.9-1.5 0.5 2.7 3.1 17 China 88.0-7.4-6.0-13.6-18.4 12.7 14.0 12.0 12.9 1.57 1.68 1.51 1.62 4.0 15.8 16.9 16.2-1.2-3.3-3.7 1.9 2.1 18 India 1,922.9 1.5 4.7 5.2 20.2 23.2 25.0 21.1 19.6 3.39 3.55 3.19 2.69 11.8 25.3 32.0 18.2-0.4 1.6 5.1 1.3 1.4 19 Kospi 3,097.8-3.4-3.3-4.5 7.8 10.9 11.1 10.8 11.4 1.12 1.19 1.09 0.94 19.5 24.3 118.3 2.5 2.5 4.7 17.1 1.8 1.9 20 Taiw an 648.0-4.5-4.2-6.3 9.6 14.5 14.6 14.4 15.6 2.35 2.47 2.29 1.97 26.8 13.1 48.5 1.2 2.0 8.4 21.4 3.7 3.8 21 Thailand 489.5 1.2 1.8-0.6 1.6 17.6 19.2 17.0 16.3 1.86 1.93 1.83 1.72-44.9 25.3 60.2 13.0-0.9 0.3 4.1 2.8 3.0 22 Russia 775.2-1.8 0.7 4.9 15.9 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.3 0.82 0.86 0.80 0.73-40.4 23.7 105.9 3.7 1.6 12.2 32.0 8.3 9.1 23 Indonesia 6,015.3 1.4 4.8 3.0-8.8 14.6 16.7 13.7 14.9 2.08 2.20 2.02 2.21-23.8 22.9 25.8 21.7-0.9-1.3-2.9 2.9 3.6 [ 자료 : Bloomberg]
[ 자료 : Factset, 미래에셋증권 / 주 : 음영은 3Q21, 4Q21, 2022F 영업이익 Growth, Chg.(1M) 가 (+) 인업종 ] [ 미국섹터별순이익증가율 ] 미국 EPS Growth(%YoY) EPS Chg.(1M) 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 2021 2022 3Q21 4Q21 2021 2022 S&P500 46.7 94.6 28.7 22.9 44.0 9.3 2.2 1.7 0.9 2.8 Energy 20.4 흑전 흑전 흑전 흑전 21.9 9.2 8.8 5.2 6.4 Materials 64.5 137.7 91.4 56.5 85.6-4.3 7.9 8.0 4.0 4.8 Industrials -6.9 454.7 84.3 155.7 100.9 33.1 4.2 2.1 1.8 2.2 Consumer Discretionary 129.3 413.7 4.7 24.8 70.4 36.8-6.8-4.5-2.9 0.7 Consumer Staples 9.6 24.1 3.8 2.9 9.6 8.6-1.8-1.6-0.9 0.2 Health Care 27.6 24.6 13.5 18.6 20.9 5.4-0.4 0.8 0.1 4.5 Financials 142.9 175.2 17.4-2.0 59.3-6.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 IT 41.0 50.6 30.3 14.7 32.0 9.8 3.9 2.3 1.5 3.0 Communication Services 52.7 77.3 24.0 11.6 37.4 9.8 7.6 5.0 2.9 5.5 Utilities -0.6 12.7-1.5 4.9 3.1 3.3-1.5-2.7-1.0-1.7 NASDAQ 71.4 78.9 34.3 18.7 45.0 20.6 2.9 1.3 1.1 2.6 Energy 흑전 흑전 흑전 흑전 흑전 34.2-0.8 9.1 4.1 5.8 Materials 흑전 흑전 664.3 356.8 흑전 5.0 0.8 1.8 0.7 4.7 Industrials 흑전 흑전 222.7 353.9 흑전 32.4 6.9 3.3 10.5 3.0 Consumer Discretionary 흑전 흑전 50.7 403.8 흑전 40.4 1.9 2.3 10.4 2.1 Consumer Staples 238.8 197.6 46.0 84.3 145.0 15.3-4.5-2.3 6.4 3.1 Health Care 적축 적축 적축 적축 적축 적축 적확 적확 적축 적확 Financials 219.0 98.5 37.6 10.4 66.9-3.3 3.6 4.5 6.4 2.7 IT 498.4 107.7 146.0 76.1 179.2 27.7 2.8 1.0-0.3 2.6 Communication Services 1,070.9 964.8 711.8 15.0 213.2 17.8 8.4 2.8 8.5 6.8 Utilities 8.3 19.5 9.5 38.2 15.4 9.3 1.6-2.9 3.7 0.6 FAANG 168.8 105.5 17.2 5.4 54.6 13.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 3.0 Facebook 92.8 100.9 16.6 5.4 40.2 12.0 6.9 4.9 2.9 5.3 Apple 118.6 100.6 67.3 10.0 55.9 2.9 9.1 2.4 2.6 5.4 Amazon 215.4 46.9-26.8-9.8 26.2 29.5-30.1-14.3-10.2-8.0 Netflix 139.0 87.4 47.0-5.9 70.9 24.7 15.7-24.7-0.2-4.6 Google 166.2 169.1 45.0 15.3 75.5 4.5 18.1 10.7 6.3 12.0
[ 한국섹터별영업이익증가율, 외국인누적순매수 ] 한국 OP Growth(%YoY) OP Chg.(1M) 외국인누적순매수대금 ( 억원 ) 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 2021 2022 3Q21 4Q21 2021 2022 1M YTD 최근 3년 KOSPI 121.6 88.2 42.9 70.9 74.9 11.9 2.6 2.4 2.9 1.8-88,081-284,636 KOSDAQ 37.4 38.2 36.9 92.6 50.2 40.7-0.5 0.9-0.9 1.9 3,619-9,158 에너지 흑전 흑전 239.0 흑전 흑전 2.1 4.9 6.3 5.4 6.2-794 -1,936 화학 524.0 342.3 88.6 191.7 221.5-7.7-1.5-1.0 6.3-0.2 5,084 23,626 비철, 목재등 62.5 102.0 6.5 6.2 35.2-1.5 12.7 13.0 12.5 10.9-785 -4,147 철강 160.1 815.6 282.8 190.8 275.0-8.7 18.3 17.6 10.4 9.5 1,724 8,274 건설, 건축관련 0.8-6.6 4.1 252.9 27.2 19.2-0.1-0.3-0.4 0.0 65-1,952 기계 112.2 34.5 37.6 41.5 52.3 15.0 3.3 3.4 1.9 2.0 846 4,939 조선 적전 적확 적전 적축 적확 흑전 적확 적전 적확 -40.7-12 -2,503 상사, 자본재 565.4 138.1 45.6 158.2 154.6 5.7 1.1-4.6 4.4 3.8 957-2,382 운송 흑전 404.4 397.9 159.0 401.0 0.3 39.4 30.4 27.8 20.6-1,742-192 자동차 87.4 535.6 293.8 26.9 127.2 12.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7-5,515-50,361 화장품, 의류, 완구 69.6 101.4 40.5 67.9 66.4 9.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.2-3,312 2,700 호텔, 레저서비스 적축 적축 흑전 흑전 적축 흑전 -80.4-40.8 적확 -2.9-448 -4,767 미디어, 교육 230.3 184.8 116.3 126.6 151.6 41.0-1.2-3.2-1.4 1.5-355 7,887 소매 ( 유통 ) 131.0 181.6 37.0 34.5 65.5 24.0-0.2 0.2-2.3-0.1 186 93 필수소비재 14.3-3.7 1.6 23.7 7.6 8.8-2.1-3.9-1.7-2.0-2,214-13,142 건강관리 60.3 32.6 33.0 54.8 45.1 24.6-2.5-3.5-5.0-4.6 4,614-11,683 은행 33.1 47.4 14.1 16.8 25.5 3.1 4.2 4.7 5.7 4.9 4,897 19,556 증권 1,045.9 14.6-10.2-2.5 37.9-13.9 13.8 11.2 7.7 3.2 1,021 5,530 보험 210.7-9.4-56.7-90.0-25.0-20.7 11.2 흑전 8.8 13.3-616 3,110 소프트웨어 -3.1-2.8 8.6 52.8 14.4 48.5-5.2 3.4-3.4 1.0-4,773-2,598 IT하드웨어 80.1 191.0 64.2 26.7 66.3 18.5 5.0 5.4 4.0 3.9 2,426-3,663 반도체 47.8 51.5 42.8 104.1 60.5 21.6 3.0 1.6 2.0 0.3-97,086-271,565 IT가전 44.9 92.3 22.8 43.9 54.2 15.9 0.4 2.8 3.2 3.8 11,631-8,314 디스플레이 흑전 흑전 203.7 10.5 625.5-10.4 10.7 9.0 10.1 8.0-908 -5,399 통신서비스 22.5 21.2 14.3 20.1 19.1 9.8 0.8 0.2 1.6 2.1 772 19,234 유틸리티 -3.4 적전 -81.6 적전 -90.9 257.4-66.1 적확 -70.7-42.9-124 -4,140 BBIG 흑전 263.3 51.5 249.9 284.3 11.5-0.4 0.9 6.5 0.3 14,466 38,705 배터리 128.0 168.7 57.7 75.6 91.2 34.0 2.5 3.5 5.0 4.9 12,867 32,865 바이오 173.2 1.5 3.1 20.7 27.4 6.3-8.2-7.7-10.6-15.8 4,243 501 인터넷 41.9 41.1 10.2 39.3 31.0 38.9-0.5-4.4-2.7 0.9-1,202-2,915 게임 -28.8-46.4 9.6 67.2-0.4 75.1-15.4-9.6-15.7-4.4-608 4,041 [ 자료 : Quantwise, 미래에셋증권 / 주 : 음영은 3Q21, 4Q21, 2022F 영업이익 Growth, Chg.(1M) 가 (+) 인업종 / 주 : 배터리에서 LG 화학, SK 이노베이션제외 ]
[MSCI 기준지역별밸류에이션, 주당순이익증가율 ] Index Index Chg % PER(x) PBR(x) EPS Grow th(% y-y) Fw d EPS Chg(%) Dividend yield(%) P (P) 1W MTD 1M YTD Fw d FY1 FY2 3yAvg Fw d FY1 FY2 3yAvg FY0 Fw d FY1 FY2 1M 3M 6M FY1 FY2 1 AC World 745.7 1.9 0.6 2.6 15.4 18.6 19.7 18.2 16.8 2.79 2.93 2.72 2.24-11.2 17.1 46.7 7.9 1.5 4.5 11.1 1.9 2.0 2 World Free 774.5 1.6 0.6 2.7 17.5 19.7 20.8 19.3 17.5 3.03 3.18 2.96 2.38-12.6 16.8 45.3 7.9 1.6 4.9 11.5 1.8 1.9 3 N. America 4,612.2 1.5 0.4 3.3 20.4 21.7 23.0 21.3 19.1 4.17 4.43 4.07 3.25-10.0 16.4 45.1 8.1 1.4 4.5 11.7 1.3 1.4 4 Europe 2,115.9 1.8 1.3 1.8 15.0 16.2 17.0 15.9 15.0 2.06 2.13 2.02 1.70-25.8 18.2 53.4 7.0 2.0 5.5 11.1 2.9 3.0 6 Emerging 1,311.9 3.6 0.2 1.5 1.6 13.2 13.9 12.9 12.9 1.74 1.85 1.68 1.54-2.8 18.5 53.8 7.8 0.6 2.8 8.6 2.6 2.8 7 EM Asia 707.7 3.9 0.4 1.6-0.8 14.5 15.3 14.0 13.7 1.84 1.96 1.78 1.59 6.6 17.6 40.3 9.7-0.1 1.1 4.7 2.1 2.2 8 EM Lat Am 2,465.5 1.0-2.0-2.2 0.6 9.6 9.4 9.8 12.4 1.71 1.84 1.65 1.77-36.4 25.0 196.3-3.9 3.8 8.7 30.0 4.4 5.0 9 EM EMEA 284.3 3.4 0.4 2.6 17.8 10.3 10.8 10.0 9.8 1.31 1.38 1.28 1.23-21.8 18.6 67.0 7.6 1.3 6.5 14.9 4.5 5.1 10 USA 4,414.6 1.5 0.4 3.3 20.4 22.2 23.5 21.7 19.3 4.38 4.67 4.28 3.40-8.8 16.3 43.6 8.2 1.3 4.3 11.5 1.3 1.4 11 France 2,430.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 20.5 16.8 18.0 16.3 15.3 1.89 1.96 1.85 1.53-42.2 26.8 90.8 9.9 3.1 6.8 12.7 2.6 2.8 12 Germany 1,144.0 0.4 0.2 1.7 12.9 14.5 15.3 14.1 14.0 1.71 1.79 1.67 1.45-14.5 18.7 53.1 8.4 1.8 4.5 10.9 2.7 2.9 13 UK 2,007.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 10.9 12.2 12.5 12.0 13.0 1.68 1.75 1.65 1.56-36.6 19.2 76.5 3.5 1.6 6.8 15.0 4.3 4.3 14 Australia 1,458.1-0.3-0.8-0.9 13.1 16.5 16.3 17.0 16.8 2.26 2.28 2.17 1.94 31.5 9.9 19.0-3.7 0.1 6.8 15.6 4.4 4.1 15 Japan 1,214.4 2.6 1.3 2.4 10.0 15.3 15.9 14.7 14.6 1.37 1.41 1.33 1.21 21.6 17.3 28.8 8.0 3.3 6.7 12.7 2.2 2.3 16 Hong Kong 17,769.8 0.4 0.4-1.6 4.8 16.8 18.6 16.1 15.4 1.26 1.31 1.24 1.15-25.6 18.4 27.7 15.4-1.6-1.8-1.3 2.7 3.1 17 China 95.1 4.5 1.6 0.1-11.8 13.8 15.2 13.1 12.9 1.69 1.81 1.63 1.62 4.0 15.4 16.3 15.9-1.4-1.8-4.6 1.8 1.9 18 India 2,014.9 4.3 0.8 8.6 25.9 24.1 25.9 22.0 19.7 3.54 3.71 3.32 2.69 11.8 25.7 33.5 17.6 1.1 0.8 5.1 1.2 1.4 19 Kospi 3,175.9 1.5-0.7-1.5 10.5 11.2 11.5 11.1 11.4 1.17 1.24 1.14 0.94 21.3 25.7 119.2 3.9 1.5 4.6 18.0 1.7 1.8 20 Taiw an 689.8 2.1-0.9 0.5 16.6 15.2 15.3 15.2 15.6 2.48 2.62 2.42 1.98 26.8 13.2 50.8 0.7 2.2 7.0 21.1 3.5 3.6 21 Thailand 523.6 2.8 0.1 8.5 8.7 19.1 20.8 18.5 16.3 1.98 2.05 1.94 1.72-45.3 25.0 59.6 12.5-1.9-2.0 1.6 2.6 2.8 22 Russia 816.8 5.8 2.5 5.4 22.1 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.4 0.74 0.77 0.72 0.73-40.4 23.6 108.1 3.3 1.5 11.0 30.3 8.0 8.8 23 Indonesia 6,083.2 1.3-0.4 5.0-7.8 14.8 17.0 13.9 15.0 2.11 2.23 2.05 2.20-23.8 22.8 25.6 21.7-1.0-1.4-3.0 2.9 3.6 [ 자료 : Bloomberg. 2021.9.08 종가기준 ]
[ 한국수출금액 * 12M Fwd EPS 추이 (MSCI 기준 )] [KOSPI 지수전망 matrix( 단순계산 )] 100 (pt) ( 백만 $) 수출액 ( 우 ) 90 80 70 60 50 12M Fwd EPS( 좌 ) 40 30 20 10 0 00/01 02/01 04/01 06/01 08/01 10/01 12/01 14/01 16/01 18/01 20/01 60,000 86.889 50,000 40,000 66.096 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 증감율 pt 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 15-10.0% 80.1 2,391 2,495 2,598 2,701 2,805 2,908 3,011 3,115 3,218 3,321 3,425-5.0% 84.6 2,495 2,604 2,713 2,822 2,931 3,040 3,149 3,258 3,367 3,476 3,586 0.0% 89.0 2,598 2,713 2,828 2,942 3,057 3,172 3,287 3,402 3,517 3,631 3,746 2.5% 91.3 2,652 2,770 2,888 3,006 3,123 3,241 3,359 3,477 3,595 3,713 3,830 4,066 5.0% 93.5 2,701 2,822 2,942 3,063 3,184 3,304 3,425 3,545 3,666 3,787 3,907 10.0% 97.9 2,805 2,931 3,057 3,184 3,310 3,436 3,563 3,689 3,815 3,942 4,068 15.0% 102.4 2,908 3,040 3,172 3,304 3,436 3,568 3,700 3,832 3,965 4,097 4,229 [ 자료 : Bloomberg]
[ 일평균수출증가율 & KOSPI 지수 ] [peak-out 기준일평균수출금액추이 ] (%, YoY) 일평균수출증가율 ( 선박제외 ) KOSPI ( 우 ) (pt) (pt) 2004 2010 2017 2021 160 140 60 50 3,500 3,000 120 100 80 40 60 30 2,500 40 M-36 M-24 M-12 M-0 M+12 M+24 M+36 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 '00.1 '03.1 '06.1 '09.1 '12.1 '15.1 '18.1 '21.1 [ 자료 : 산업통산자원부, Refinitiv, 메리츠증권 ] 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 [peak-out 기준 KOSPI 추이 ] (pt) 2004 2010 2017 2021 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 M-36 M-24 M-12 M-0 M+12 M+24 M+36
[2004 년품목별수출액 ] [2010 년품목별수출액 ] 250 반도체자동차화학자동차부품석탄 / 석유제품디스플레이철강 200 150 100 50 ( 지수 ) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 [2017 년품목별수출액 ] 반도체자동차석탄 / 석유제품디스플레이컴퓨터및주변기기 M-36 M-24 M-12 M-0 M+12 M+24 M+36 0 M-36 M-24 M-12 M-0 M+12 M+24 M+36 [ 현재품목별수출액 ]? [ 자료 : 산업통산자원부, Refinitiv, 메리츠증권 ]
[ 반도체 yoy(%)] [ 자동차 yoy(%)] [2 차전지 yoy(%)] [ 석탄및석유제품 yoy(%)] [ 일반기계 yoy(%)] [2 차전지단가, 물량 ] 2 차전지 : 단가 2 차전지 : 물량 ( 우 ) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 '19.1 '20.1 '21.1 250 200 150 100 50 0 [ 자료 : 산업통산자원부, 메리츠증권 ]
[ 실업수당종료후신청자수추이 ] 지역 2021-06-04 2021-06-11 2021-06-18 2021-06-25 2021-07-02 2021-07-09 2021-07-16 2021-07-23 2021-07-30 중단이후변화 Alaska 10,583 9,693 9,074 8,163 7,719 7,348 6,982 6,687 6,405-33.9 Iowa 23,744 22,883 20,119 19,275 18,621 18,751 17,639 16,787 16,433-28.2 Mississippi 25,945 25,309 32,459 26,023 23,352 22,733 20,453 19,536 18,019-28.8 Missouri 54,287 50,613 52,735 48,517 43,941 43,428 42,448 43,868 35,548-29.8 Alabama 12,921 12,204 13,057 36,528 29,126 24,617 19,691 17,510 16,733 28.2 Idaho 6,294 6,125 5,825 5,848 5,507 5,210 4,950 4,781 4,453-23.6 Indiana 53,670 50,535 47,470 58,694 51,877 54,149 45,203 42,979 46,158-2.8 Nebraska 7,326 7,008 6,902 6,588 7,406 8,151 6,886 6,769 6,199-10.2 New Hampshire 12,732 11,875 10,526 14,168 10,630 8,951 7,602 6,505 5,880-44.1 North Dakota 3,453 3,307 3,036 3,151 3,326 3,203 2,845 2,773 2,622-13.6 West Virgina 14,858 13,749 13,176 13,868 12,153 12,213 11,381 10,783 10,305-21.8 Wyoming 2,674 2,583 2,461 2,626 2,281 2,219 2,122 2,063 1,954-20.6 Arkansas 19,862 21,156 20,567 20,211 18,405 19,551 19,657 18,616 19,148-5.3 Florida 109,193 89,048 97,633 54,642 100,168 95,430 80,694 79,205 59,879 9.6 Georgia 132,754 136,799 144,750 178,850 108,266 100,259 97,900 90,728 90,890-49.2 Ohio 88,285 86,151 79,496 76,044 70,861 69,940 68,010 62,996 61,503-19.1 South Carolina 36,842 33,305 33,489 32,389 46,007 42,714 37,023 36,016 34,672 7.0 South Dakota 1,965 2,473 1,724 1,668 1,580 1,595 1,378 4,297 1,565-6.2 Texas 196,601 195,891 197,679 213,690 157,043 199,928 194,094 210,422 190,232-11.0 Utah 10,264 9,933 9,740 9,163 10,969 9,855 9,171 8,770 8,467-7.6 Montana 7,681 7,200 7,222 6,928 6,954 6,815 6,295 5,840 5,554-19.8 Oklahoma 35,665 34,392 34,714 36,109 40,315 37,285 32,354 29,690 30,107-16.6 Maryland 39,076 44,014 42,925 40,379 42,360 42,887 35,499 31,162 37,119-12.4 Tenessee 54,474 52,998 52,344 51,731 47,969 48,362 52,820 52,687 47,249-1.5 Arizona 47,132 46,159 44,689 43,825 42,425 42,197 41,428 39,919 38,434-8.9 [ 자료 : Bloomberg, 유안타증권 ]
Monthly value Country Indicator Unit Aug, 21 Jul, 21 Jun, 21 May, 21 Apr, 21 Mar, 21 Feb, 21 Jan, 21 Dec, 20 Nov, 20 Oct, 20 Sep, 20 Aug, 20 Jul, 20 Jun, 20 May, 20 Apr, 20 Mar, 20 Korea 소비자심리지수 p 102.5 103.2 110.3 105.2 102.2 100.5 97.4 95.4 91.2 99.0 92.9 81.4 89.7 85.9 83.7 79.7 73.3 80.4 Korea 소비자물가 YoY% 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.3 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0-0.3 0.1 1.0 Korea 수출 YoY% 34.9 29.6 39.8 45.6 41.2 16.3 9.3 11.4 12.4 3.9-3.9 7.1-10.3-7.1-10.9-23.7-25.6-1.8 Korea 경상수지 $mn 8,211 8,847 10,761 1,910 7,816 7,942 7,060 11,507 9,177 11,551 10,335 6,641 7,025 7,165 2,241-3,298 5,940 Korea 광공업생산 YoY% 7.9 11.5 14.5 12.2 4.6 0.8 7.8 2.6 0.1-2.8 7.3-3.7-2.9-1.3-10.9-5.2 7.0 Korea 서비스업생산 YoY% 4.2 5.0 4.2 8.3 7.8 0.8-1.8-2.1-1.4-2.5 0.1-3.8-1.2 0.0-4.0-6.1-5.0 Korea 소매판매 YoY% 7.9 1.6 3.1 8.7 11.1 8.5-0.2-2.1-1.4-0.2 4.0 0.4 0.6 6.6 1.7-2.2-7.8 Korea 설비투자 YoY% 11.7 9.9 11.2 16.4 9.6 7.1 19.4 5.6 5.4-0.7 17.9-0.7 8.4 14.0 3.1 2.0 11.7 Korea 건설기성 YoY% 1.2 3.5 1.3 3.5-0.8-1.7-0.6 2.1 6.7-4.5 9.6-5.7 2.8 0.5-1.7 1.0 7.7 Korea 한국 OECD 경기선행지수 p 102.1 102.0 101.9 101.7 101.4 101.1 100.8 100.5 100.3 100.0 99.7 99.3 99.1 98.8 98.7 98.7 98.7 US 소비자신뢰지수 p 113.8 125.1 128.9 120.0 117.5 114.9 95.2 87.1 87.1 92.9 101.4 101.3 86.3 91.7 98.3 85.9 85.7 118.8 US ISM 제조업지수 p 59.9 59.5 60.6 61.2 60.7 64.7 60.8 58.7 60.5 57.7 58.8 55.7 55.6 53.7 52.2 43.1 41.7 49.7 US ISM 비제조업지수 p 61.7 64.1 60.1 64.0 62.7 63.7 55.3 58.7 57.7 56.8 56.2 57.2 57.2 56.6 56.5 45.4 41.6 53.6 US Sentix 미국경제심리지수 p 30.1 39.1 39.9 40.1 38.6 25.5 18.0 10.7 9.1 4.8-1.1-4.8-15.6-17.1-22.3-36.8-39.1 0.2 US 비농업신규취업자 thou. 235 1,053 962 614 269 785 536 233-306 264 680 716 1,583 1,726 4,846 2,833-20,679-1,683 US 실업률 % 5.2 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.8 8.4 10.2 11.1 13.3 14.8 4.4 US 시간당임금상승률 MoM% 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7-0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1-1.3-1.1 4.6 0.8 US 소매판매 MoM% -1.1 0.7-1.4 0.9 11.3-2.9 7.6-1.2-1.4 0.1 2.0 1.0 1.4 8.7 18.2-14.7-8.6 US 산업생산 MoM% 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.0 2.8-3.0 1.1 1.2 0.5 1.1-0.3 1.1 4.1 6.2 1.9-13.6-3.8 US CPI MoM% 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5-0.1-0.7-0.3 US Core CPI MoM% 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2-0.1-0.4 0.0 US 내구재주문 MoM% -0.1 0.8 3.2-0.7 1.3 1.3 2.4 1.5 2.2 1.0 1.6 2.0 9.8 11.3 10.6-11.6-20.7 US 근원개인소비지출 MoM% 0.34 0.47 0.58 0.63 0.42 0.13 0.22 0.32 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.32 0.30 0.36 0.21-0.46-0.06 US 미국 OECD 경기선행지수 p 100.5 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.0 99.7 99.4 99.1 98.7 98.3 98.0 97.8 97.0 95.4 93.3 91.8 96.9 US 케이스-쉴러주택가격지수 p 260.9 255.3 249.6 243.9 239.2 236.5 234.5 232.4 229.9 226.9 224.2 221.7 219.9 218.6 217.4 215.3 China 제조업 PMI p 50.1 50.4 50.9 51.0 51.1 51.9 50.6 51.3 51.9 52.1 51.4 51.5 51.0 51.1 50.9 50.6 50.8 52.0 China 비제조업 PMI p 47.5 53.3 53.5 55.2 54.9 56.3 51.4 52.4 55.7 56.4 56.2 55.9 55.2 54.2 54.4 53.6 53.2 52.3 China 외환보유액 USD bil 3,232 3,236 3,214 3,222 3,198 3,170 3,205 3,211 3,217 3,178 3,128 3,143 3,165 3,154 3,112 3,102 3,091 3,061 China 수출 YoY% 25.6 19.3 32.2 27.8 32.2 30.5 154.7 24.6 18.1 20.6 10.9 9.4 9.1 6.8 0.2-3.5 3.1-6.9 China 수입 YoY% 33.1 28.1 36.7 51.0 43.4 38.7 18.5 28.4 6.5 3.9 4.4 12.7-2.3-1.6 2.3-16.7-14.4-1.3 China 소비자물가 YoY% 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4-0.2-0.3 0.2-0.5 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 3.3 4.3 China 산업생산 YoY% 6.4 8.3 8.8 9.8 14.1 35.1 35.1 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9 5.6 4.8 4.8 4.4 3.9-1.1 China 고정투자 YTD YoY% 10.3 12.6 15.4 19.9 25.6 35.0 35.0 2.9 2.6 1.8 0.8-0.3-1.6-3.1-6.3-10.3-16.1 China 소매판매 YoY% 8.5 12.1 12.4 17.7 34.2 33.8 33.8 4.6 5.0 4.3 3.3 0.5-1.1-1.8-2.8-7.5-15.8 China 총사회융자 YTD CNY bil 18,803 17,747 14,056 12,106 10,254 6,906 5,183 34,863 33,144 31,009 29,616 26,147 22,561 20,868 17,400 14,213 11,111 Eurozone 유로존제조업 PMI p 61.4 62.8 63.4 63.1 62.9 62.5 57.9 54.8 55.2 53.8 54.8 53.7 51.7 51.8 47.4 39.4 33.4 44.5 Eurozone 소비자신뢰지수 p -5.3-4.4-3.3-5.1-8.1-10.8-14.8-15.5-13.8-17.6-15.5-13.6-14.6-14.9-14.6-18.9-21.9-11.5
[DRAM 현물가, 고정가 ] [NAND 현물가, 고정가 ] ($) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Spread (RHS) 64Gb MLC Spot 64Gb MLC Contract ($) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 0.0 '16.7 '16.12 '17.5 '17.10 '18.3 '18.8 '19.1 '19.6 '19.11 '20.4 '20.9 '21.2 '21.7-2.0 [ 자료 : Dramexchange, NH 투자증권 ]
[KOSPI & 고객예탁금 & 신용잔고추이 ] 카카오게임즈, 하이브 SK 바이오사이언스 SKIET 카카오뱅크, 크래프톤 고금원신융자소원가지수인트 [ 자료 : Dataguide]
II. 대응전략
[2019 년 ( 코로나 19 이전 ) 대비미국소비회복률 ] (%) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 자동차전자제품의류식품금융서비스가처분소득가솔린식당숙박헬스케어여가운송서비스 [ 자료 : 미국경제분석국, NH 투자증권 ]
[ 음악산업분기별수출액 ] [ 영화산업분기별수출액 ] [ 방송산업분기별수출액 ] [ 콘텐츠솔루션분기별수출액 ] [ 자료 : bigfinance]
[ 한국영화관관객수 ] [ 외국인입국자수 ] [ 내국인출국자수 ] [ 면세점월별매출액 ] [ 자료 : bigfinance]
[ 국가별전기차비중추이 ] 국가 구분 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 전기차수요 ( 대 ) 77,875 71,835 87,137 32,814 48,494 96,327 115,604 99,200 164,591 151,555 171,061 287,623 116,375 119,428 233,816 165,645 184,331 247,197 134,819 유럽 자동차수요 ( 대 ) 1,134,898 1,066,794 853,077 292,182 623,812 1,131,895 1,281,740 884,394 1,300,048 1,129,223 1,047,409 1,214,581 842,835 850,170 1,387,924 1,039,810 1,083,795 1,282,503 n/a 전기차비중 (%) 6.9 6.7 10.2 11.2 7.8 8.5 9.0 11.2 12.7 13.4 16.3 23.7 13.8 14.0 16.8 15.9 17.0 19.3 n/a 전기차수요 ( 대 ) 54,356 15,264 62,032 70,378 82,440 102,507 98,734 107,276 134,379 161,526 209,948 235,974 179,237 108,867 224,481 188,621 212,136 254,174 235,799 중국 자동차수요 ( 대 ) 1,689,161 237,848 1,101,355 1,596,161 1,724,363 1,820,147 1,718,681 1,808,737 2,152,700 2,159,902 2,360,895 2,447,340 2,125,124 1,194,339 1,928,420 1,748,722 1,686,467 1,569,000 1,551,000 전기차비중 (%) 3.2 6.4 5.6 4.4 4.8 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.2 7.5 8.9 9.6 8.4 9.1 11.6 10.8 12.6 16.2 15.2 전기차수요 ( 대 ) 14,762 16,052 27,676 9,962 15,606 28,086 26,922 28,986 41,541 34,709 35,984 48,627 24,555 35,648 65,897 41,195 49,271 74,066 52,870 미국 자동차수요 ( 대 ) 1,135,637 1,348,947 991,345 719,306 1,127,041 1,104,990 1,236,302 1,324,247 1,340,551 1,351,092 1,193,180 1,608,875 1,094,096 1,187,298 1,599,859 1,534,103 1,583,093 1,296,517 1,288,494 전기차비중 (%) 1.3 1.2 2.8 1.4 1.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 3.1 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.2 3.0 4.1 2.7 3.1 5.7 4.1 [ 자료 : EV-volumes, ADB, 삼성증권 / 전기차 = BEV+PHEV+FCEV]
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