2003-6 WMD :
,. WMD 2003,.,. 2004 2
1 I. 5. WMD 8 1. WMD 8 2. WMD 10. 10. 13. 14. WMD 15 1. WMD 15 2. WMD 17 3. WMD 20. WMD 20 NPT 20 IAEA 21 CWC 22 BWC 24. (export control) 25. WMD 29. WMD 30 31 WMD 32. WMD 35 1. WMD 35. 35. 37. 39 2. 41. 41 41 1 42 - i -
42. 43 43 44 44. 2 45 (HEU) 45 KEDO 46 NPT 46 47 3 48. 1 6 48 48 49 49 50 3. 50. 52 1. WMD 52 2. WMD 54. 56 < 1>, 15 9 < 2> 10 < 3> 11 < 4> 12 < 5> 14 < 6> 24 < 7> CTR (2002 ) 34 < 8> 36 < 9> 38 < 10> 39 < 11> 40 - ii -
2002 10 (James Kelly) (HEU),..,,,,., WMD( ), WMD. WMD ( ),,,,,,. WMD., WMD, WMD. WMD. 1991 WMD (nonproliferation) (sanction), (counter-proliferation). WMD (means) (system) WMD. WMD WMD - 1 -
. WMD. 2000 1, 4, 6. WMD, WMD,. NPT IAEA,. 5 Wassenaar, NSG( ), Zangger Committee, MTCR 4.,, 61,000, WMD., WMD, WMD, (SORT), (Cooperative Threat Reduction).,,., IAEA NPT. CWC, BWC.,,, WMD. 3-2 -
. 2003 1 (package deal),,,,., ;, ;,.. 1 6 (2003. 8).. (MD) MD. NMD TMD,,. TMD,. WMD, WMD.. 10. 9 11 WMD WMD 2003 11 PSI(Proliferation Security Initiative). - 3 -
6,. 6,, 2....,.,,,.,. WMD. WMD. - 4 -
I.. 1, 2~3 20, 21., (theory of clash of civilization) (theory of end of history), (democratic peace theory),,. (enlargement) (engagement).,,,,.,,, (Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD), (nonproliferation) (disarmament). 1990 (NPT), (CTBT), (CWC), (Wassenaar), START I, II SORT - 5 -
WMD. WMD 21. WMD,,,. 1990,,.,. 2001 9 11, WMD, WMD. 1, 2003 3, WMD. 1994 10 (Agreed Framework) 6. WMD. 2, WMD.,., WMD, WMD. WMD, WMD - 6 -
. WMD WMD. WMD. 2002 10 (James Kelly) (HEU), NPT 4 1 2.. 2003 1, (package deal)..,.,,,,. WMD,,. - 7 -
, WMD, WMD. 2 WMD WMD,, ; 3 WMD, WMD ; 4 WMD ; 5 WMD ; 6.. WMD 1. WMD WMD 20.,. 20, WMD. 1. 2, - 8 -
. ( ) ( ). 2,,,, WMD. < 1>, 15 1) W W W W W W W W W W W W W W R W W R R R W W R W W R W W W W R W W R R (W= ; R= ) WMD? WMD. WMD,,.,,,, 1) Joseph Cirincione with Jon B. Wolfsthal and Mirian Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weap ons of Mass Destruction (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002), p. 17. - 9 -
,. < 2> 2), 1,000 24 :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, UAE,,, 1,000~3,000 7 :,,,,,,, 3,000~5,500 1 :, 5,500 5 :,,,, 2. WMD. (strategic nuclear weapons), (tactical nuclear weapons), (nuclear materials), (nuclear expertise). 3),., NPT, START I, ABM, INF(Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces)., 2) Ibid., p. 14. 3). Ibid., pp. 107-126. - 10 -
, < 3>. < 3> 4) START I ( 90. 9.) START I ( 02. 1.) ICBMs 1,064 4,278 742 3,364 SLMBs 940 2,804 376 1,868 Bombers 79 570 80 626 2,083 7,652 1,198 5,858 ICBMs. SLBMs SLBMs.,. 2002 5 (Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty, SORT)., 2012 1,700~2,200., 2010 1,000.,,,. 30,000. 4) Ibid., p. 108. - 11 -
,. 1992, 1990., 3,500~8,000.. < 4> 5) (1991 ) 1991 - (2000 ) (2000 ) 4,000 0 0 0 2,000 0 0 0 700 0 0 0 3,000 1,500 1,500 600 7,000 3,500 3,500 1,000 5,000 3,000 3,400 2,000 21,700 8,000 8,400 3,400 (HEU, ), 1 HEU,.. 150 metric-ton( 1,000 ) 1,500 metric-ton HEU. 750 metric-ton. 53,., 5) Ibid., p. 115. - 12 -
,,.,,. 120,000....,.,. WMD., 40,000 metric-ton., 81% (sarin), (soman), VX viral agents. 19% lewisite, mustard, lewisite mustard (blistering).,,,.,. - 13 -
< 5> 6) (%) Shchuche 13.6 Pochep 18.8 Leoniddovka 17.2 Gorny /mustard, 2.9 Maradykovsky 17.4 Kizner /lewisite 14.2 Kambarka /lewisite 15.9. 1972 (Biological Weapons Convention, BWC) antharax smallpox 50.,...,. (agents),.. WMD 6) Ibid., p. 123. - 14 -
.,.,. CIA., CIA 2001,,,.,... WMD 1. WMD, (arms control) WMD.,,., - 15 -
WMD. WMD. CWC, MTCR WMD, START II, ABM.,. 7) WMD, WMD ( )? WMD ( ) ( ). (nuclear nonproliferation) (nuclear disarmament)..,,.. WMD WMD WMD. 1991 (sanction), 7) Phillip C. Saunders, New Approaches to Nonproliferation: Supplementing or Supplanting the Regime? The Nonprolif eration Review (Fall-Winter 2001), pp. 124-25; and Randall Forsberg, William Driscoll, Gregory Webb, and Jonathan Dean, Nonprolif eration Primer: Preventing the Spread of Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Weap ons (Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1995), chap. 1. - 16 -
(counter-proliferation). 8) WMD (means) (system). WMD (export control), WMD, WMD. 9) (Phillip C. Saunders) WMD 5. 10) 5, WMD, WMD, WMD,. 5 WMD. 2. WMD,. 1993 2 11. 1997 12, 1990. 8), (2002. 2.), p. 4. 9) Randall Forsberg, William Driscoll, Gregory Webb, and Jonatha Dean, op. cit., pp. 74-83. 10) Pillip C. Saunders, op. cit., pp. 123-136. - 17 -
., 2000 1, 4, 6. WMD, WMD,. 1990, EU WMD. 1993 11 NPT, CWC, BWC WMD,,. 11) 1996 6 1997 12 WMD. 12) 1998 5 G8. WMD 9. WMD. 2003 6 G8 WMD. WMD 13) 11) The Basic Provisions of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/russia/russia-mil-doc.html 12), 70 (1996 ), pp. 336-351; National Security Concept of the Russian Federation (President's Decree No. 1300 ;December 17, 1997), RIA-Novosti, Daily Review (January 9, 1998), Issue 002. 13) Non-Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction--A G8 Declaration, Evian, June 1-3, 2003, p. - 18 -
. 3 BBC WMD 21 14). WMD WMD. 2000 WMD WMD. 15) 1997 WMD, WMD. WMD, WMD, WMD,. WMD. 16) (Global Control System, GCS), CTBT. 1. (Vladimir Orlov Patient in Coma?: Prospects of non-proliferation following the Iraqi War, Russia in Global Aff airs, Vol. 1-No. 3 (July-September 2003), p. 104 ) 14) Ibi d. 15) Concept of the National Security of the Russian Federation Nezavisimoy e Voennoye Obozreniy e (14 January 2000). 16) The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation approved by the President Putin on June 28, 2000 from http://www.mid.ru./mid/eng/econcept.htm; Russia's Military Doctrine (2000. 4. 21 ) from http://www.armscontrol.org/acr/ may00/dc3ma00.hym;, (, 2000. 9. 22). - 19 -
3. WMD. WMD WMD ( ) NPT, CTBT, CWC, BWC, (International Atomic Agency, IAEA). 17) NPT NPT 2002 2 187,. 2003 1 NPT, 4. NPT 1960 2, 1964 10, NPT 1968 6 UN 1970 3. NPT, ( ),,,, IAEA (Safeguards Agreement).,. NPT IAEA,. IAEA, (special inspection), 1993 2. NPT 25 1995, NPT. 17). Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Inventory of International Nonprolif eration Organizations and Regimes, 2000 edition (August 2000);,. - 20 -
NPT, 2000 4~5 UN 6 NPT, NPT. 5,.,,,,,. CTBT,, NPT. 18) NPT NPT, NPT, 2000 4~5 NPT.. IAEA IAEA. IAEA,. IAEA 1953 12 UN Atoms for Peace. IAEA 1956 10, 1957 7. 2002 2 IAEA 133 NPT NPT 18),, p. 24. - 21 -
1970, NPT 18. NPT IAEA (Voluntary-offer safeguards agreement). IAEA. NPT 1974 6 NPT. CWC (Chemical Weapons Convention, CWC) 1992 2 1997 4, 2002 2 UN 5 144. 1997 4, 2002 2,,. 19) 1997 4,,, 2007, 2012., 1960 (Agent Orange) 1980, 1988 3 5,000. 1985 CWC., CWC 1990 19). - 22 -
, 1991 CWC. CWC,, 1987 40,000, 7. 1980. 1990,. 1993 CWC, 2001 2 9... 20) CWC, 2002 2, 3, 1. 1996, 2007. 7. CWC 4 20). CSIS, Protecting Against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weap ons: An A ction Agenda f or Global Partnership, Vol 4: Russian p ersp ectives and Priorities (January 2003), chap. 4. Destruction of Russia's Chemical Weapons, pp. 77-90 ; idem, Vol 2: The Challenges, chap 3: Russian Chemical Weapons Demilitarization: Successes and Challenges, pp. 53-69; and Jonathan B. Tucker, Russia's New Plan for Chemical Weapons Destruction, Arms Control Today (July/August 2001). - 23 -
, ( : 1999 ). CWC,. 2000, 2001. 2001 6, 2002 2001 1. < 6> 21) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 195 585 975 2,125 5,805 12,365 20,365 28,365 36,365 40,000 2001 1996 1, 2 2011 < 6>. 7 3. 3. BWC 1925. 1972 4 BWC. BWC 21) Destruction of Russias Chemical Weapons, p. 82. - 24 -
, 9,,. BWC 1975 3, 2002 2 144. 1975 3, 1987 6 1987 3. 22)...,, 1990 3 BWC..,. 5 1990., EU BWC. CWC BWC BWC.. (export control) 23) 22),, p. 39. 23) Phillip C. Saunders, op. cit., p. 127. - 25 -
. (CoCom). (Nuclear Suppliers Group, NSG), (the Australia Group, AG), (Missile Technology Control Regime, MTCR) WMD. 24),..,,, WMD. WMD WMD., 1992 NSG,. MTCR 1987 32,. 1985 AG CWC. CoCom 1994, Wassenaar 1996. 24).,, pp.83-102. - 26 -
. 25) 5 Wassenaar, NSG, Zangger Committee, MTCR 4.,.... (GOSPLAN),. 1950 3 WMD.. 1980 WMD.,. IAEA, NSG Zangger.. MTCR,. MTCR. Leipzig Group 25). Michael Beck, Gary Bertsch, Khripurov, "The Development of Nonproliferation Export Control in Russia," World Affairs (Summer 1994), Vol. 157, Issue 1; Vladimir A. Orlov, "Export Controls and Nuclear Smuggling in Russia," from http://www.pircenter.org/board/ article.php3?artid=181; Vol. 4: R ussian Persp ectives and Politics, chap. 5 Export Controls. - 27 -
. 1990. 1991 4 428.. 26). 1992. 1992 4 388. 1990 ;,,,,, ;. 1996,. 2000 MEDT, MEDT 1990 6,.,, ;,, ; ;, ;,, ;,,. 1990, WMD.,,, 61,000, 26) Michael Beck, Gary Bertsch, Igor Khripunov, op. cit.. - 28 -
. WMD.. WMD 27) UN, UN. 1 UN., WMD. WMD.,, WMD. WMD,. WMD,, WMD. WMD,.,,, WMD,,., 27) Phillip C. Saunders, op. ct., pp. 128-130. - 29 -
.., WMD. 1991 UN (UNSCOM), WMD. UN,,., 2003.. 9 11 WMD WMD.,,, WMD.., WMD. WMD,,,.. WMD WMD - 30 -
, WMD,., WMD.,,,,, WMD WMD WMD. EU, NATO WMD. 28) 1991 7 START I 2001. START I 1,600 6,000, START I,,, 1993 1 START. START, 3,500, ICBMs, SLBMs 1,750 2003 1. 1996 1 START START, ICBMs 2000, 28). Nuclear Status Rep ort, chap. 2: "U.S.-Russian Strategic Nuclear Negotiations and Agreements" - 31 -
. 1990 NATO 1972 ABM (National Missile Defense, NMD). 1997 3, 2,000~2,500 START START. START 2007 12. 1997 9 26. NMD 2000 4 START ABM. START, 2002 1,700~2,200, 2012 (Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty, SORT). SORT, 2012 1,700. 1 2. WMD WMD., WMD, WMD, - 32 -
HEU, WMD. 29), WMD WMD. 1990, WMD WMD,,. WMD 11. EU, EBRD. 1992~2001 50., START I,. WMD 1991,, Sam Nun Richard Lugar WMD Nun-Lugar Program, 1991 12. Nun-Lugar 4., WMD. 30) Nun-Lugar (Cooperative Threat Reduction, CTR),. WMD 29) Eliminating the Legacy of the Cold War: Background in Russian Persp ectives and Priorities, chap.. 30) Nuclear Status Rep ort, chap. 3, U.S. Nonproliferation Assistance Programs. - 33 -
,,. 1997 5 76FZ 2001 7 510,. 1995 11 170-FZ, 1963 5 Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage. WMD MINATOM,,,,,,. WMD, 26, 10, 4 WMD, 1. < 7>. < 7> CTR (2002 ) 31) 1 EBRD 1 EU 1, 1 1 6 (5 ) 2, 1 2 1 1 1 2 3, 5, 12 31) Eliminating the Legacy of the Cold War: Background, p. 9. - 34 -
. WMD 1. WMD 32). 33) 2 1994 1~2 12. 5 8,000,, 5~6 25~30. 1. WMD. 1994 10 IAEA., 200, 50.,,. 32) WMD. Joseph Cirincione, op. cit., chap. 14; http://www.fas.org/guide/dprk/; http://www.nti.org/ db.profiles/dprk/. 33).,, ( :, 1995); Lar ry A. Niksch, "Nor th Kor ea 's Nuclear Weapons Pr og CRS I ssue Br i ef f or Congres s (June 9, 2003); Alexandre Y. Mansour ov, The Or igins, Ev and Curr ent Pol i t ics of t he Nor t h Kor ean Nuclear Pr ogr ams, The Nonpr ol i f er at i on (Spr ing-summer 1995), pp. 25-38; S. A.,, 4 (2003. 11 27).,. - 35 -
< 8> 34) Name/Location of Facility Type/Status IAEA Safeguards Sinpo (Kumho) Yongbyon Yongbyon Taechon POWER REACTORS 2 light-water, 1,000- e; under construction Gas-graphite, nat. U, 5- e; operation frozen Gas-graphite, nat. U, 50- e; construction halted Gas-graphite, nat. U, 200- e; construction halted RESEARCH REACTORS Yes IAEA verifying freeze in operations IAEA verifying construction freeze IAEA verifying construction freeze IRT, Yongbyon Pool-type, HEU, 4- t; operating Yes Yongbyon Critical assembly Yes Pyongyang Subcritical assembly Yes Yongbyon Pyongyang Pyongsan Pakchon (Sanchon-Wolbingsan mine) Pyongsan Pakchon Yongbyon Yongbyon Yongbyon REPROCESSING (PLUTONIUM EXTRACTION) Partially completed; operations frozen Soviet-supplied laboratory-scale hot cells URANIUM PROCESSING Uranium mining; status unknown Uranium mining; status unknown Uranium milling; status unknown Uranium milling; status unknown Uranium purification (UO2) facility; Yes operating Fuel-fabrication facility; operations frozen Pilot-scale fuel-fabrication facility; dismantled, according to North Korean officials Yes No N/A N/A N/A N/A Yes No Abbreviations HEU: highly enriched uranium e: millions of watts of electrical output N/A: not applicable t: millions of watts of thermal output nat. U: natural uranium 34) Joseph Cirincione, op. cit., p. 201. - 36 -
, 1994 10 2003 2 50. 2 HEU 2002 10 (James Kelly)., 1995 HEU.,, 2.. 35). 1970 -B,,. -B - B ( 320~340 1,000 ); - C ( 500 700 ); ( 1,000 700~1,000 ),. 1998 8 31 1. 3, ICBM. 1 2, -B. 35) North Korea's Chemical Profile and North Korea's Biological Profile from http://www.nti.org/db/profiles/dprk/; http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/. - 37 -
< 9> 36) North Korean Name Alternative Name Hwas ng-5 ( -5) Scud-B Hwas ng-6 ( -6) Scud-C unknown Scud-D unknown Nodong unknown Nodong-2 Paektusan-1 ( -1) Tawpodong-1 unknown Tawpodong-2 unknown Tawpodong-3 Range( ) Payload( ) 300 987~989 500 770 700 500 1,000 700 Inventory Estimate (Launcher/Missiles) 27 TELs (total) over 500 Scuds of all types 27 TELs (total) over 500 Scuds of all types 27 TELs (total) over 500 Scuds of all types At least 10 TELs About 100 Status deployed exported deployed exported deployed exported deployed exported unknown unknown unknown unknown 2,200 700 unknown unknown unknown unknown testing deployed? exported? R&D prototype testing unknown unknown unknown R&D? 2..,.,,,., 36) http://www.nti.org/db/profiles/dprk/msl/cap/nkm_ccgo.html. - 38 -
.. 37) < 10> 38) CW Agent Type Quantity Status Phosgene Choking gas Unknown Unknown Diphosgene Choking gas Unknown Unknown Mustard Blister 1,000s of tons? Storage/deployed Lewisite Blister Unknown Unknown Phosgene oxime Blister Unknown Unknown Sarin (GB) Nerve agent 1,000s of tons? Storage/deployed Tabun (GA) Nerve agent Unknown Unknown Soman (GD) Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VX Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VG Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VM Nerve agent Unknown Unknown VE Nerve agent Unknown Unknown Cyanogen chloride Blood agent Unknown Unknown Hydrogen cyanide Blood agent Unknown Unkown BZ Psychoincapacitant Unknown Unknown Adamsite (DM) Vomiting agent Unknown Unknown Diphenylchloroarsine (DA) Vomiting agent Unknown Unknown CN Riot control agent Unknown Unknown CS Riot control agent Unknown Unknown,.,,. 37) North Korea's Chemical Profile and North Korea's Biological Profile from http://www.nti.org/db/profiles/dprk/; http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/. 38) http://www.nti.org/db/profiles/dprk/chem/cap/cap_list.html. - 39 -
CWC,.,,.,.. 8.. CIA, 6 170 180~250 metric-ton, 5,000 metric-ton. < 11> 39) BW Agent Type Assessment Status Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) Smallpox (Variola major) Bacterial spores Probable possilbly weaponized, with delivery system Virus Possible Unknown Plague (Yersinia pestis) Bacterium Unknown Unknown Cholera (Vibrio cholerae) Typhus (Rickettsia prowazekii) Botulism (Botulinum toxin) Typhoid (Salmonella typhi) Bacterium Unknown Unknown Bacterium Unknown Unknown Toxin Unknown Unknown Bacterium Unknown Unknown Hemorrhagic fevers Virus Unknown Unknown Yellow fever Virus Unlikely NA TB (Mycobacterium tuberculosis) Bacterium Unlikely NA 1960,., 39) http://www.nti.org/db/profiles/dprk/bio.cap_list.html - 40 -
WMD.,,. 1987 3 BWC. 2. 40).,. 1956 3 26 9 7 2, (Dubna Nuclear Research Complex). 1959,. 1960 1, 1965 8 0.1. 1967, 1970~1980. 1970 ( 1970 ) 40),., ( ; 2003. 5. 13).., 19 2 (2003 ), pp. 153-173. - 41 -
, 1974 7 IAEA, 1985 12 NPT. (1985. 12) NPT, NPT. 1 1980, 1992 1 IAEA. IAEA 1992 4 5 6, NPT,. IAEA 1993 3 NPT, 1. 1988~1994 ( ),.,., 1994 3 24 8,,,,,,, IAEA. 1994 10 (Agreed Framework), KEDO,. ( - 42 -
)., KEDO.. ( 19 ),.,,. WMD.,,. IAEA NPT. CWC, BWC.,,,. - 43 -
,,. 20,, 21.,,,.,., ( : ) ( : ). ( : 6 ),. 3. 2002 8, 9 17 -. - 44 -
2003 1 (package deal),,,,.. 2 (HEU) (2002. 10. 3~5) 2 2002 10 16. NPT, IAEA, (1992. 2. 19 ) NPT...,.,., - 45 -
. KEDO KEDO 2002 11 14. KEDO.,. ( : ) ( : ),. NPT KEDO 2002 12, IAEA. 2003 1 6 IAEA IAEA 1 10 NPT IAEA 1993 6 11. IAEA, - 46 -
. NPT,, IAEA. NPT,. 2002 12 13,, 3,. 2003 1 18~20,.., ;, ;,.., NPT., (2002. 2. 26, ). 2003 2 20-47 -
. 3 2003 4 23~25 3. 4 12 ),. 3., 3,, 6 (4. 23, ). 4 30..,.. 1 6, 1 6. - 48 -
1.,,. 3, 1 ( ), 2 ( ), 3 ( ).,..,,. 4 3..,...,. - 49 -
.,,. 3. 1993 5 1, 1998 8 1., 3,. NMD( NMD TMD MD ), TMD. (rogue states) (axis of evils), WMD ABM MD.. 1998 8 31, 3.,, - 50 -
..,. 41) MD MD. NMD TMD,,. TMD,. MD,,,,. 2000 7 /. 6,. 1 ( ). MD,.. 41) 9 (1999, 10. 29). - 51 -
. 1. WMD WMD,. WMD, 1970 WMD. 1980, 1980 WMD WMD WMD WMD, WMD. 3, 1990 WMD,, EU WMD WMD. CIS WMD,. 3, WMD,. - 52 -
WMD., SORT,,. SORT,,, SORT,. 10.. 10.,. IAEA,, IAEA.. 9 11 WMD WMD 2003 11-53 -
PSI(Proliferation Security Initiative) PSI. PSI. PSI WMD.,. CWC, BWC,. WMD. WMD., WMD, WMD,., WMD. 2. WMD,.,. 6, 6-54 -
,.,, NPT, MTCR, CTBT WMD., 3,.,., 10,.,, IAEA.,. 6,, 2.. - 55 -
..,.,,,.,.,.,. MTCR., WMD CWC.., WMD. 2 WMD - 56 -
., WMD. WMD, WMD WMD. WMD,. WMD 1992, EU,, (International Science and Technology Center). WMD WMD,. 1..,,.,,. - 57 -
6,,. 2,.,,,,.,. - 58 -