연구보고서 2010-05 학업성취도, 진학및노동시장성과에대한 사교육의효과분석 김희삼
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,,.,,,.,. 2010 12
목차 발간사 요약 1 제 1 장서론 5 제2장선행연구 8 제1절초 중 고생의성적에대한사교육효과 9 제2절수능성적및대학진학에대한사교육효과 10 제3절대학학점에대한사교육효과 12 제4절노동시장성과에대한사교육효과 12 제5절평가 13 제3장분석방법과분석자료 15 제1절분석방법 15 제2절분석자료 18 1. 국가수준학업성취도조사 18 2. 한국교육종단연구 18 3. 한국교육고용패널 19 4. 한국노동패널 20 제 4 장학교급별학업성취도에대한사교육의효과 21 제 1 절학교급별사교육현황 22
1. 국가수준학업성취도조사의학교급별사교육현황 22 2. 통계청사교육비조사의학교급별사교육현황 23 제2절초등학교사교육의효과 29 1. 초등학생의사교육시간과과목별성적 30 2. 초등학생의성적분위에따른사교육효과 30 제3절중학교사교육의효과 35 1. 중학생의사교육시간과과목별성적 35 2. 중학생의성적분위에따른사교육효과 37 제4절고등학교사교육의효과 40 1. 고등학생의사교육시간과과목별성적 40 2. 고등학생의성적분위에따른사교육효과 40 제5절학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향 43 1. 초등학교성적에대한기타변인의영향 45 2. 중학교성적에대한기타변인의영향 49 3. 고등학교성적에대한기타변인의영향 52 제5장과목별학업성취도에대한사교육의효과 58 제1절수학사교육의효과 59 1. 수학사교육비지출과수학성적 59 2. 수학사교육시간과수학성적 63 제2절영어사교육의효과 66 1. 영어사교육비지출과영어성적 66 2. 영어사교육시간과영어성적 71 제3절국어사교육의효과 76 1. 국어사교육비지출과국어성적 76 2. 국어사교육시간과국어성적 81
3. 소결 81 제4절과목별성적분위에따른사교육의효과 86 1. 과목별성적분위별사교육비지출의효과 86 2. 과목별성적분위별사교육시간의효과 89 3. 소결 92 제5절내생성을고려한과목별사교육비의효과 93 1. 사교육비의도구변수를이용한분석결과 93 2. 고정효과패널모형을이용한분석결과 98 제6절과목별상대평가성적에대한사교육의효과 109 제6장수능성적및대학진학성과에대한사교육의효과 115 제1절수능성적에대한사교육의효과 115 1. 수능영역별백분위에대한사교육의효과 115 2. 수능총점급간에대한사교육의효과 127 제2절대학진학성과에대한사교육의효과 131 제7장고등교육및노동시장성과에대한사교육의효과 135 제1절고등교육에대한사교육의효과 136 1. 대학학점에대한사교육의효과 136 2. 최종학력에대한사교육과자기주도학습의효과 138 제2절노동시장성과에대한사교육의효과 141 제 8 장결론 145 참고문헌 151 ABSTRACT 155
표목차 < 표 1-1> 한국의사교육현황 (2007년 ) 5 < 표 4-1> 초 중 고교재학생의일평균사교육시간분포 22 < 표 4-2> 학교급별 과목별학생 1인당월평균사교육비및사교육참여율 24 < 표 4-3> 초등학교 6학년의일평균사교육시간에따른과목별학업성취도 31 < 표 4-4> 초등학교 6학년영어학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 32 < 표 4-5> 초등학교 6학년수학학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 34 < 표 4-6> 중학교 3학년의일평균사교육시간에따른과목별학업성취도 36 < 표 4-7> 중학교 3학년영어학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 38 < 표 4-8> 중학교 3학년수학학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 39 < 표 4-9> 고등학교 1학년의일평균사교육시간에따른학업성취도 41 < 표 4-10> 고등학교 1학년의영어학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 42 < 표 4-11> 고등학교 1학년의수학학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 44 < 표 4-12> 초등학교 6학년학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향 46 < 표 4-13> 중학교 3학년학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향 50 < 표 4-14> 고등학교 1학년학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향 53 < 표 5-1> 중학생의수학사교육비지출과수학성적 60 < 표 5-2> 중학생의수학사교육시간과수학성적 64 < 표 5-3> 중학생의영어사교육비지출과영어성적 67 < 표 5-4> 중학생의영어사교육시간과영어성적 72 < 표 5-5> 중학생의국어사교육비지출과국어성적 77 < 표 5-6> 중학생의국어사교육시간과국어성적 82 < 표 5-7> 중학생의수학성적분위별사교육비지출의효과 87 < 표 5-8> 중학생의영어성적분위별사교육비지출의효과 88
< 표 5-9> 중학생의국어성적분위별사교육비지출의효과 89 < 표 5-10> 중학생의수학성적분위별사교육시간의효과 90 < 표 5-11> 중학생의영어성적분위별사교육시간의효과 91 < 표 5-12> 중학생의국어성적분위별사교육시간의효과 91 < 표 5-13> 수학성적에대한사교육비효과의도구변수추정 (n=2,587) 96 < 표 5-14> 영어성적에대한사교육비효과의도구변수추정 (n=2,556) 97 < 표 5-15> 국어성적에대한사교육비효과의도구변수추정 (n=2,438) 98 < 표 5-16> 수학성적에대한사교육비효과의분석모형별비교 (n=8,268) 101 < 표 5-17> 영어성적에대한사교육비효과의분석모형별비교 (n=7,923) 104 < 표 5-18> 국어성적에대한사교육비효과의분석모형별비교 (n=7,848) 106 < 표 5-19> 중 2 상대평가성적에대한사교육경험과자기주도학습의효과 111 < 표 5-20> 중 2 상대평가성적에대한사교육개수와자기주도학습의효과 113 < 표 6-1> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 2, 고 3 사교육비지출의효과 120 < 표 6-2> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 3 사교육비지출의효과 121 < 표 6-3> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 2, 고 3 사교육시간의효과 123 < 표 6-4> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 3 사교육시간의효과 124 < 표 6-5> 수능성적에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육경험의효과 129 < 표 6-6> 수능성적에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육개수의효과 130 < 표 6-7> 학과평균수능점수에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육경험의효과 133 < 표 6-8> 학과평균수능점수에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육개수의효과 134 < 표 7-1> 대학학점에대한사교육의효과 137 < 표 7-2> 최종학력에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육경험의효과 139 < 표 7-3> 최종학력에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육개수의효과 140 < 표 7-4> 시간당실질임금에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육경험의효과 142 < 표 7-5> 시간당실질임금에대한중 2, 고 2 때사교육개수의효과 143
그림목차 [ 그림 4-1] 학년별주요교과학생 1인당월평균사교육비 (2009년 ) 26 [ 그림 4-2] 학교급별일반교과사교육비지출비중 (2009년 ) 27 [ 그림 4-3] 학년별일반교과사교육의참여유형비중 (2009년 ) 28 [ 그림 6-1] 주당혼자공부한시간의증가에따른수능백분위상승폭 127
요약.,..,,,.., 6, 3, 1,. 6.,. 3 1., 1
,.,,. 1.,,, 2, 3.,,, 1.,,, 2 3., (, ) ( ). 10 1, 5 1, 2 1.,., 2 3 ( ),.,
.,., 2 2,,. 2 2., (5),., (12),., ( ),.,., ( ).,., ( ), 1 3~4%..,,,.,,.
제 1 장서론 2007 20 GDP 2.2% ( 1-1 ). 1) 1 10.7%. OECD(2008) (Economic Surveys: Korea). < 표 1-1> 한국의사교육현황 (2007 년 ) (%) 1 () (%) () GDP (%) 77.0 10.2 288 8.0 20.0 2.2 88.8 10.0 256 7.1 10.2 1.1 74.6 11.9 314 8.7 5.6 0.6 62.0 8.3 388 10.7 3.9 0.4 33.7 7.4 198 5.5 0.4 0.0 : OECD(2008, p.139). : ;. 1) GDP 0.9%, GDP 3.4% (2006 ),..
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.,. 3).. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 3) 2., (2010) 1990 2 ( ), 2 3..
제 2 장선행연구 (education production function)..,..,.,,.
제 1 절초 중 고생의성적에대한사교육효과. (2002) 2,., 34%. (2003) 5 2,. (2003) 2 (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study: TIMMS) 1999 (+). (2005), ( ) ( ). (2007) 4, 2, 1,,.. (2008). 3
,,,. (2009) 3,. (2010), (endogeneity)., 10% 0.10~3.11%, 0.08~1.26%, 0.17~1.43%, 0.08~1.10%,. 4) (2010), 24 3 36.8%, 25.5%. 5) 제 2 절수능성적및대학진학에대한사교육효과 (2005) 4). 5), 1 1.
.. (2005),.,,. Kang(2005) ( ),. 6) 10% 0.67 ( 1.4%). (2007a) 3. 1 0.35%,. (2007) ( ),,. 12%, 35%. (2007) 2004 3 184, 2 4, 2 6),.,. (2010, pp.55~57).
. (2007) ( ), ( ). (2008) 1% 31 0.06%. (2008) ( ) 3 ( ) 4. 제 3 절대학학점에대한사교육효과 (2005) 1. 3 3. (2008), 3 10. 제 4 절노동시장성과에대한사교육효과. Park(2009),
2 (,, ). 2 ( ) 40%, 2 ( ).. 제 5 절평가.. 7). 7). Sawada and Kobayashi(1986) (juku) ( ). Kulpoo(1998) 6 (,,, ). Dang(2007) ( ),. Tansel and Bircan(2005) (dersane) (,,,,,,, ). Polydorides(1986) (+). Fergany(1994),.
.. (bias)...,, ( : )...
제 3 장분석방법과분석자료 제 1 절분석방법.,., (multiple causality),., ( : IQ ) ( :,, )., (+)., (reverse causality),.,,. 8) 8) 4 2
,.,., (self-selection).....,.,..,., (instrument variable: IV) 2 (two stage least square: 2SLS).., (2005), 2 4. (2007) ( ) ( ).
, Kang(2005), (2007), (2008), (2010) ( )... 9), (fixed-effect model).,,,.,.,.,,., (propensity score matching). (propensity score),, (non-parametric estimation)., 9) (control function) 2 (Blundell et al.[2005] ).
(hybrid approach).,.,. 제 2 절분석자료 1. 국가수준학업성취도조사 2008 ( ). 6, 3, 1. 2007, 2008 ().,,,,...,,. 2. 한국교육종단연구
2005 07. 2005 1 2005 1 6,908 150 30 2023,.,,.,,,.,. 1 3.. 3. 한국교육고용패널,, ( ),. 2004 3, 3, 3 2,000 6,000 2010 5. (,, ).
,. 5 (2008 ) 2007 1 2008 1 (GPA),.,. 4. 한국노동패널 9 (2005 ) 11 (2008 ) 2 2. 2 2. 5 (2001 ),,.. 2010 11,,,,,. 2 2.
제 4 장학교급별학업성취도에대한사교육의효과. 2007 2008 6, 3, 1 2 ~3. 10),,,, ( ),,. 1.. 10) (2009).
제 1 절학교급별사교육현황 1. 국가수준학업성취도조사의학교급별사교육현황. (1), (2) 1, (3) 1~2, (4) 2~3, (5) 3 5. < 표 4-1> 초 중 고교재학생의일평균사교육시간분포 (:, %) 가. 2007 년 6 3 1 3,850 (17.6) 6,363 (30.4) 12,662 (42.6) 1 2,894 (13.2) 1,538 (7.4) 2,482 (8.4) 1~2 4,436 (20.3) 2,994 (14.3) 6,297 (21.2) 2~3 4,629 (21.1) 3,711 (17.7) 4,679 (15.8) 3 6,099 (27.8) 6,312 (30.2) 3,586 (12.0) 21,908 (100.0) 20,918 (100.0) 29,706 (100.0) :,, 2007. 나. 2008 년 6 3 1 3,854 (17.0) 9,989 (30.2) 13,575 (41.1) 1 2,830 (12.5) 2,255 (6.8) 2,656 (8.1) 1~2 4,791 (21.1) 4,994 (15.1) 7,633 (23.1) 2~3 4,757 (21.0) 5,845 (17.7) 5,089 (15.4) 3 6,474 (28.5) 9,954 (30.1) 4,059 (12.3) 22,706 (100.0) 33,037 (100.0) 33,012 (100.0) :,, 2008.
< 4-1>,,,.,. 3, 1~2. 2. 통계청사교육비조사의학교급별사교육현황,.. < 4-2> 2007 1.,,.., < 4-2> (%, 200720082009 ) (60.7 62.7 62.4) (65.9 64.1 64.3) 60%., 2007 3.7%p 2008 2009 0.1%p, 1.6%p,.,
< 표 4-2> 학교급별 과목별학생 1 인당월평균사교육비및사교육참여율 가. 2007 년 () 22.2 22.7 23.4 19.7 24.0 6.7-17.8 16.0 21.9 17.0 21.2 4.0 2.2 2.0 2.9 2.0 2.5 0.3 6.8 6.9 7.6 5.7 7.1 1.5 5.7 4.2 7.3 7.2 9.1 1.6, 1.6 1.1 2.9 1.1 1.5 0.2 -, 4.3 6.7 1.5 2.4 2.7 1.7 (%) 77.0 88.8 72.5 55.0 62.0 33.7-68.4 77.4 71.0 46.6 55.7 18.7 39.3 47.2 44.2 17.3 21.6 4.4 55.6 60.7 65.9 33.2 40.3 11.7 58.6 64.4 66.4 37.7 46.4 11.1, 25.6 24.6 39.8 11.8 14.9 2.3 -, 37.0 61.4 15.1 10.3 9.9 11.4 나. 2008 년 () 23.3 24.2 24.1 20.6 24.9 6.9-18.8 17.4 22.6 17.6 21.7 4.2 2.3 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.5 0.4 7.6 8.0 8.2 6.2 7.7 1.6 6.2 4.6 7.9 7.7 9.5 1.7, 1.5 1.1 2.8 1.0 1.2 0.1 -, 4.4 6.8 1.5 2.8 3.0 2.0 (%) 75.1 87.9 72.5 53.4 60.5 30.3-66.4 76.2 68.8 45.3 54.1 16.6 36.1 44.9 40.1 15.1 18.5 4.3 55.6 62.7 64.1 33.0 39.7 11.2 56.5 62.6 64.2 36.6 44.4 11.2, 22.8 23.0 35.3 9.1 11.4 1.6 -, 35.3 60.4 13.5 10.6 10.2 11.8
< 표 4-2> 의계속 다. 2009 년 () 24.2 24.5 26.0 21.7 26.9 6.0-19.7 17.6 24.3 18.5 23.5 3.1 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.7 0.3 8.0 8.4 9.0 6.3 8.0 1.2 6.7 4.4 8.9 8.4 10.8 1.2, 1.6 1.3 2.8 1.1 1.4 0.1 -, 4.5 6.9 1.7 3.0 3.3 2.3 (%) 75.0 87.4 74.3 53.8 62.8 26.1-66.2 75.5 70.1 45.9 56.6 12.7 34.4 43.5 37.9 14.8 18.5 3.5 55.0 62.4 64.3 32.4 40.0 8.9 55.8 60.8 65.4 37.2 46.5 8.5, 23.3 24.6 34.9 9.2 11.9 0.9 -, 34.8 59.6 15.4 10.5 10.1 11.9 : 1),,,,, EBS,. 2) 2007 272 34,000, 2008 273 34,000, 2009 1,012 44,000. 3) 3 5 7 9 6 10 (2007 7 10 ),,. :,,.., 2009 8 4, 9, ( ) 8., 13 5, 14, 20
[ 그림 4-1] 학년별주요교과학생 1 인당월평균사교육비 (2009 년 ) (: ) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 초 1 초 2 초 3 초 4 초 5 초 6 중 1 중 2 중 3 고 1 고 2 고 3 영어수학국어 : (0 ). : (2010).. 11). [ 4-1] 2009 1 (, 0 ).,. 3 3 ( 8). 1997,. 1 3 ( 6 7) 11), 40%, () ().
[ 그림 4-2] 학교급별일반교과사교육비지출비중 (2009 년 ) 전체고등학교중학교초등학교 81.4 85.3 93.5 71.8 18.6 14.7 6.5 28.2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 일반교과 예체능등 : (2010).. 1.,. [ 4-2] (,,, ) (,, ),. ( ),. ( 2~3). 12), 12) 2009 ( ) 5.1%, 25.7%, 73.7% ( [2010]).
..,, (, ) [ 4-3].,., 60%. 3. [ 4-1],.. [ 그림 4-3] 학년별일반교과사교육의참여유형비중 (2009 년 ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 초 1 초 2 초 3 초 4 초 5 초 6 중 1 중 2 중 3 고 1 고 2 고 3 학원수강개인ㆍ그룹과외기타 ( 방문학습지, 인터넷등 ) : (2010).
제 2 절초등학교사교육의효과 5 (2007, 2008 )..., 1, 1~2, 2~3, 3.,. 13) (OLS), (cluster robust standard error). ( ).. 14) 6. 13) < 4-2>,. 14),,. 5.
1. 초등학생의사교육시간과과목별성적 < 4-3>, 6.. 2007 2008. 2. 초등학생의성적분위에따른사교육효과., 10%( ), 25%(), 50%(), 75%(), 90% ( ) (quantile regression).,.. 100 (bootstrapping). (OLS). OLS..
< 표 4-3> 초등학교 6 학년의일평균사교육시간에따른과목별학업성취도 가. 2007 년 1 0.139*** (0.024) 1~2 0.236*** (0.023) 2~3 0.361*** (0.022) 3 ( ) 0.389*** (0.022) 19,293 (330) 0.264*** (0.024) 0.399*** (0.022) 0.553*** (0.021) 0.629*** (0.021) 19,293 (330) 0.157*** (0.022) 0.319*** (0.021) 0.511*** (0.020) 0.595*** (0.021) 19,293 (330) 0.127*** (0.024) 0.258*** (0.023) 0.352*** (0.022) 0.355*** (0.021) 19,293 (330) 0.132*** (0.025) 0.271*** (0.023) 0.379*** (0.022) 0.400*** (0.022) 19,293 (330) 0.2569 0.3083 0.2331 0.2358 0.1924 1 F 110.2*** 139.8*** 80.2*** 98.3*** 65.8*** 나. 2008 년 0.099*** (0.023) 1~2 0.211*** (0.019) 2~3 0.344*** (0.020) 3 ( ) 0.361*** (0.019) 23,394 (902) 0.264*** (0.022) 0.421*** (0.019) 0.566*** (0.019) 0.656*** (0.018) 23,394 (902) 0.164*** (0.022) 0.323*** (0.019) 0.509*** (0.020) 0.569*** (0.020) 23,394 (902) 0.133*** (0.023) 0.245*** (0.020) 0.371*** (0.020) 0.386*** (0.019) 23,394 (902) 0.139*** (0.024) 0.251*** (0.020) 0.404*** (0.021) 0.421*** (0.020) 23,394 (902) 0.2684 0.3288 0.2553 0.2402 0.2256 F 115.6*** 141.4*** 101.7*** 106.4*** 87.2*** : 1) ( ) (cluster robust standard error), *** 1%. 2),,, < 4-12>. :,,.
< 표 4-4> 초등학교 6 학년영어학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 가. 2007 년 (n=21,980 명 ) 1 10% 0.305*** (0.047) 1~2 0.509*** (0.063) 2~3 0.915*** (0.062) 3 1.119*** (0.066) -1.933*** (0.047) 25% 0.509*** (0.051) 0.814*** (0.052) 1.119*** (0.041) 1.322*** (0.040) -1.424*** (0.020) 50% 0.610*** (0.054) 0.814*** (0.037) 1.017*** (0.037) 1.119*** (0.039) -0.611*** (0.036) 75% 0.407*** (0.041) 0.509*** (0.040) 0.610*** (0.040) 0.814*** (0.049) 0.203*** (0.040) 90% 0.305*** (0.024) 0.305*** (0.034) 0.407*** (0.057) 0.509*** (0.024) 0.712*** (0.024) 0.0767 0.0888 0.0706 0.0443 0.0324 나. 2008 년 (n=26,331 명 ) 1 10% 0.200*** (0.063) 1~2 0.499*** (0.073) 2~3 0.799*** (0.059) 3 1.098*** (0.055) -1.923*** (0.049) 25% 0.399*** (0.061) 0.699*** (0.055) 1.098*** (0.044) 1.397*** (0.031) -1.424*** (0.029) 50% 0.499*** (0.054) 0.799*** (0.027) 0.998*** (0.027) 1.198*** (0.024) -0.625*** (0.022) 75% 0.399*** (0.054) 0.599*** (0.064) 0.699*** (0.050) 0.799*** (0.050) 0.173*** (0.050) 90% 0.200*** (0.029) 0.200*** (0.029) 0.499*** (0.029) 0.499*** (0.061) 0.772*** (0.029) 0.0701 0.0950 0.0800 0.0495 0.0427 : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), *** 1%. :,,.
가. 초등학생영어성적의분위별사교육효과 < 4-4> 6.. 2007, 10% 1, 2 ( 1 ). 25% 1, 50%. 75% 3, 90% 3. 6,..., 2008 6 2007. 2007. 나. 초등학생수학성적의분위별사교육효과 < 4-5> 6. 2007, 10% 1 3, 25% (
< 표 4-5> 초등학교 6 학년수학학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 가. 2007 년 (n=21,980 명 ) 1 10% 0.256*** (0.034) 1~2 0.513*** (0.057) 2~3 0.769*** (0.026) 3 0.898*** (0.063) -1.646*** (0.013) 25% 0.256*** (0.018) 0.513*** (0.018) 0.769*** (0.013) 0.898*** -1.133*** 50% 0.256*** (0.052) 0.513*** (0.060) 0.641*** (0.086) 0.898*** (0.052) -0.492*** (0.047) 75% 0.256*** (0.022) 0.385*** (0.041) 0.641*** (0.025) 0.769*** (0.069) 0.149*** (0.022) 90% 0.256*** (0.071) 0.513*** (0.081) 0.641*** (0.060) 0.769*** (0.067) 0.662*** (0.060) 0.0628 0.0632 0.0550 0.0492 0.0395 나. 2008 년 (n=26,331 명 ) 1 10% 0.139*** (0.060) 1~2 0.555*** (0.075) 2~3 0.693*** (0.052) 3 0.971*** (0.078) -1.683*** (0.047) 25% 0.139*** (0.027) 0.555*** (0.070) 0.693*** (0.014) 0.971*** (0.020) -1.129*** 50% 0.139*** (0.080) 0.416*** (0.069) 0.693*** (0.069) 0.832*** (0.069) -0.435*** (0.069) 75% 0.139*** (0.066) 0.416*** (0.092) 0.555*** (0.066) 0.693*** (0.066) 0.258*** (0.066) 90% 0.139*** (0.047) 0.277*** (0.042) 0.555*** (0.064) 0.555*** (0.042) 0.812*** (0.042) 0.0634 0.0631 0.0573 0.0404 0.0299 : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), *** 1%. :,,.
, ), 50%. 75% 90%,.. 2008. 1 ( ). 6. 제 3 절중학교사교육의효과 1. 중학생의사교육시간과과목별성적 < 4-6> 3... 2007 2008. 2008 1. 1 2 ( ),,,
< 표 4-6> 중학교 3 학년의일평균사교육시간에따른과목별학업성취도 가. 2007 년 1 0.093*** (0.026) 1~2 0.238*** (0.022) 2~3 0.363*** (0.020) 3 ( ) 0.382*** (0.017) 19,022 (280) 0.125*** (0.025) 0.346*** (0.021) 0.436*** (0.019) 0.490*** (0.017) 19,022 (280) 0.144*** (0.026) 0.347*** (0.022) 0.478*** (0.022) 0.538*** (0.019) 19,022 (280) 0.056* (0.029) 0.248*** (0.023) 0.372*** (0.023) 0.424*** (0.019) 19,022 (280) 0.086*** (0.028) 0.245*** (0.022) 0.375*** (0.021) 0.444*** (0.018) 19,022 (280) 0.2803 0.3564 0.2912 0.2627 0.2393 1 F 98.3*** 131.8*** 114.9*** 85.6*** 68.0*** 나. 2008 년 0.003 (0.021) 1~2 0.237*** (0.015) 2~3 0.329*** (0.015) 3 ( ) 0.417*** (0.013) 30,952 (946) 0.081*** (0.019) 0.348*** (0.015) 0.454*** (0.015) 0.540*** (0.013) 30,952 (946) 0.087*** (0.019) 0.367*** (0.016) 0.490*** (0.016) 0.568*** (0.014) 30,952 (946) 0.010 (0.021) 0.226*** (0.016) 0.325*** (0.015) 0.414*** (0.013) 30,952 (946) 0.034* (0.021) 0.231*** (0.016) 0.352*** (0.016) 0.477*** (0.014) 30,952 (946) 0.3232 0.3742 0.3169 0.2976 0.2828 F 196.5*** 224.8*** 237.9*** 189.5*** 173.7*** : 1) ( ) (cluster robust standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. 2),,, < 4-13>. :,,.
. 15) 2. 중학생의성적분위에따른사교육효과가. 중학생영어성적의분위별사교육효과 < 4-7> 3., 6. 2007 3 ( ). 6 3. 3., 2008 3 2007. 2007. 15), < 4-2>,, 40%.
< 표 4-7> 중학교 3 학년영어학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 가. 2007 년 (n=20,920 명 ) 1 10% 0.103** (0.046) 1~2 0.309*** (0.046) 2~3 0.412*** (0.049) 3 0.412*** (0.046) -1.346*** (0.046) 25% 0.103** (0.041) 0.412*** (0.051) 0.617*** (0.051) 0.617*** (0.043) -1.038*** 50% 0.309*** (0.047) 0.720*** (0.052) 0.823*** (0.025) 0.926*** (0.031) -0.626*** 75% 0.412*** (0.062) 0.823*** (0.057) 0.926*** (0.046) 1.029*** (0.055) -0.009 (0.026) 90% 0.515*** (0.082) 0.926*** (0.074) 0.926*** (0.065) 1.132*** (0.054) 0.609*** (0.051) 0.0321 0.0561 0.0722 0.0774 0.0747 나. 2008 년 (n=33,037 명 ) 1 10% -0.000 (0.023) 1~2 0.317*** 2~3 0.423*** (0.015) 3 0.529*** -1.425*** 25% 0.106*** (0.023) 0.529*** 0.635*** (0.040) 0.740*** -1.107*** 50% 0.106 (0.069) 0.635*** (0.076) 0.740*** (0.058) 0.952*** (0.066) -0.578*** (0.053) 75% 0.317*** (0.040) 0.846*** (0.053) 0.846*** (0.029) 1.058*** (0.021) 0.056*** (0.021) 90% 0.423*** (0.059) 0.740*** (0.050) 0.846*** (0.050) 0.952*** (0.035) 0.691*** (0.035) 0.0578 0.0737 0.0802 0.0777 0.0640 : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,.
나. 중학생수학성적의분위별사교육효과 < 4-8> 3. 3, 3 < 표 4-8> 중학교 3 학년수학학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 가. 2007 년 (n=20,920 명 ) 1 10% 0.106*** (0.023) 1~2 0.213*** (0.026) 2~3 0.319*** (0.023) 3 0.319*** (0.023) 25% 0.106*** 0.425*** (0.052) 0.532*** 0.532*** (0.052) 50% 0.319*** (0.066) 0.744*** (0.058) 0.957*** (0.067) 0.957*** (0.069) 75% 0.425*** (0.085) 0.850*** (0.063) 0.957*** (0.060) 1.169*** (0.070) 90% 0.532*** (0.074) 0.850*** (0.060) 0.850*** (0.034) 0.957*** (0.047) -1.270*** -1.057*** -0.739*** 0.006 0.750*** (0.023) (0.052) (0.053) (0.024) 0.0290 0.0586 0.0791 0.0823 0.0644 나. 2008 년 (n=33,037 명 ) 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 1 0.104*** 0.104*** 0.207*** 0.311*** 0.311*** (0.025) (0.015) (0.044) (0.056) (0.064) 1~2 0.207*** 0.414*** 0.725*** 0.828*** 0.725*** (0.031) (0.044) (0.020) (0.027) (0.023) 2~3 0.414*** 0.621*** 0.932*** 0.932*** 0.828*** (0.028) (0.023) (0.035) (0.036) (0.025) 3 0.414*** 0.725*** 1.035*** 1.035*** 1.035*** (0.018) (0.054) (0.015) -1.348*** -1.141*** -0.727*** -0.002 0.723*** (0.010) 0.0472 0.0763 0.0897 0.0770 0.0604 : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,.
., 75% 90%.,. 2007 2008. 제 4 절고등학교사교육의효과 1. 고등학생의사교육시간과과목별성적 < 4-9> 1.. 2007 2008. 2. 고등학생의성적분위에따른사교육효과가. 고등학생영어성적의분위별사교육효과 < 4-10> 1., 3. 2007 90% 1 1. 2008 10% 25% 1
< 표 4-9> 고등학교 1 학년의일평균사교육시간에따른학업성취도 가. 2007 년 1 0.093*** (0.027) 1~2 0.192*** (0.023) 2~3 0.247*** (0.026) 3 ( ) 0.268*** (0.032) 12,229 (408) 0.132*** (0.027) 0.244*** (0.023) 0.300*** (0.028) 0.302*** (0.029) 12,229 (408) 0.138*** (0.027) 0.326*** (0.023) 0.401*** (0.025) 0.435*** (0.031) 12,229 (408) 0.110*** (0.029) 0.196*** (0.023) 0.223*** (0.026) 0.284*** (0.033) 12,229 (408) 0.125*** (0.028) 0.221*** (0.023) 0.269*** (0.026) 0.357*** (0.033) 12,229 (408) 0.3513 0.4016 0.4014 0.3849 0.3543 나. 2008 년 1 F 56.1*** 44.2*** 51.4*** 41.5*** 51.0*** 0.111*** (0.019) 1~2 0.184*** (0.014) 2~3 0.190*** (0.017) 3 ( ) 0.228*** (0.019) 31,247 (913) 0.184*** (0.018) 0.283*** (0.015) 0.305*** (0.017) 0.373*** (0.020) 31,247 (913) 0.220*** (0.019) 0.337*** (0.015) 0.350*** (0.017) 0.434*** (0.019) 31,247 (913) 0.125*** (0.020) 0.197*** (0.016) 0.192*** (0.020) 0.207*** (0.022) 31,247 (913) 0.142*** (0.019) 0.229*** (0.016) 0.250*** (0.018) 0.310*** (0.021) 31,247 (913) 0.4029 0.4577 0.4215 0.4109 0.3882 F 116.1*** 107.1*** 114.1*** 81.6*** 89.9*** : 1) ( ) (cluster robust standard error), *** 1%. 2),,, < 4-14>. :,,.
< 표 4-10> 고등학교 1 학년의영어학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 가. 2007 년 (n=29,702 명 ) 1 10% 0.281*** (0.064) 1~2 0.469*** (0.064) 2~3 0.562*** (0.060) 3 0.469*** (0.063) -1.334*** (0.047) 25% 0.187*** 0.469*** 0.469*** (0.026) 0.469*** (0.009) -0.865*** 50% 0.375*** (0.013) 0.656*** 0.750*** (0.035) 0.750*** (0.036) -0.490*** 75% 0.656*** (0.079) 0.843*** (0.059) 0.843*** (0.060) 0.937*** (0.052) 0.072 (0.046) 90% 0.843*** (0.079) 1.031*** (0.026) 1.031*** (0.030) 1.031*** (0.048) 0.728*** (0.013) 0.0361 0.0470 0.0745 0.0823 0.0690 나. 2008 년 (n=33,012 명 ) 1 10% 0.265*** (0.041) 1~2 0.619*** (0.044) 2~3 0.708*** (0.032) 3 0.708*** (0.036) -1.499*** (0.028) 25% 0.177*** (0.043) 0.619*** (0.028) 0.619*** 0.708*** (0.021) -0.968*** 50% 0.354*** (0.044) 0.708*** (0.009) 0.708*** (0.028) 0.885*** (0.030) -0.525*** 75% 0.708*** (0.053) 0.885*** (0.037) 0.973*** (0.039) 1.150*** (0.035) 0.005 (0.009) 90% 0.796*** (0.056) 0.796*** (0.044) 0.885*** (0.058) 0.973*** (0.071) 0.802*** (0.043) 0.0535 0.0667 0.0805 0.0811 0.0613 : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,.
2007,.,. 나. 고등학생수학성적의분위별사교육효과 < 4-11> 1. 1. 3,, 75% 90%. 90% 75% () ( ), 75% 90%., 75% 90%,., 2007 2008. 제 5 절학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향,,..
< 표 4-11> 고등학교 1 학년의수학학업성취도의분위별사교육효과 가. 2007 년 (n=29,702 명 ) 1 10% 0.108*** 1~2 0.324*** (0.046) 2~3 0.324*** (0.019) 3 0.324*** (0.043) -1.194*** 25% 0.216*** (0.043) 0.540*** (0.019) 0.540*** (0.046) 0.540*** -0.978*** 50% 0.432*** (0.032) 0.972*** (0.021) 0.972*** (0.039) 0.972*** (0.029) -0.654*** 75% 0.864*** (0.055) 1.080*** (0.019) 1.080*** (0.026) 1.080*** (0.054) -0.006*** 90% 0.756*** (0.047) 0.756*** (0.021) 0.756*** (0.043) 0.864*** (0.026) 0.858*** (0.019) 0.0274 0.0596 0.1020 0.0991 0.0566 나. 2008 년 (n=33,012 명 ) 1 10% 0.109*** 1~2 0.326*** (0.046) 2~3 0.434*** 3 0.434*** (0.035) -1.305*** 25% 0.217*** (0.040) 0.543*** 0.543*** (0.051) 0.651*** (0.038) -0.979*** 50% 0.543*** (0.057) 0.977*** (0.026) 0.977*** (0.049) 1.086*** (0.045) -0.654*** 75% 0.869*** (0.070) 0.977*** (0.047) 0.977*** (0.048) 1.086*** (0.057) -0.002 (0.047) 90% 0.651*** (0.050) 0.760*** (0.040) 0.651*** (0.060) 0.869*** (0.058) 0.866*** (0.021) 0.0372 0.0618 0.0975 0.0824 0.0490 : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,.
, (,, ).,,., ().. 1. 초등학교성적에대한기타변인의영향 < 4-12> < 4-3> 6. + - (3, 2, 1 1%, 5%, 10% ). 10%. 2007 2008 (consistency) (robustness). 6,., 6..,,
< 표 4-12> 초등학교 6 학년학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 ( ) ( ) ( ) / TV
< 표 4-12> 의계속 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 / / / ( ) : +++, ++, + 1%, 5%, 10%, ---, --, - 1%, 5%, 10%.
. ( ), ( )... 16) 17). 6, 2008.,., /, 16) 4 1........... 17) 4 1......
. TV ( 2008 ).,. 6.,.,.,. 2. 중학교성적에대한기타변인의영향 < 4-13> < 4-6> 3. 3,. 6, 3..,
< 표 4-13> 중학교 3 학년학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 ( ) ( ) ( ) / TV
< 표 4-13> 의계속 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 / / / ( ) : +++, ++, + 1%, 5%, 10%, ---, --, - 1%, 5%, 10%.
6., 6. 18),.. 3. /. 3 TV,.. 3,. 3.,,. 3. 고등학교성적에대한기타변인의영향 < 4-14> < 4-9> 1. 3 1 18) 1, 1.
< 표 4-14> 고등학교 1 학년학업성취도에대한기타변인의영향 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 ( ) ( ) ( ) / TV
< 표 4-14> 의계속 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08 / / / ( ) : +++, ++, + 1%, 5%, 10%, ---, --, - 1%, 5%, 10%.
. 3. 2008,,. 3. 19),,. 1.,,,,.,. 1. /, 19), ( ),..,,,.,, > >>>>,.,.
.,., TV,,,,. 1 6 3.,.,.,.., 2008 2007.,,..
, ( ) (, ).
제 5 장과목별학업성취도에대한사교육의효과..,..,,,. 1 (2005 10 ), 2.,,,, EBS,. EBS,.
제 1 절수학사교육의효과.,,. 20) 1. 수학사교육비지출과수학성적 < 5-1>. (1) 3, 2, 1, 2 1, 6 (9 ). 3 3. 21) 2 1 3 3., 2, 1 6 3, 2. (2) 3 3 20) 9 5 1.........., (20 ). 21) 3, 3 (: ) 10 3 ( 0, 1 ) 0.04.
< 표 5-1> 중학생의수학사교육비지출과수학성적 (1) 3 (2) 3 (3) 2 (4) 2 3 0.004*** (0.001) 2 0.000 (0.002) 0.002* (0.001) 1 0.002 (0.002) 0.003** (0.002) 0.001 (0.002) 0.005*** (0.002) 2 0.367*** (0.019) 0.367*** (0.019) 1 0.248*** (0.020) 0.248*** (0.020) 0.472*** (0.018) 6 0.042*** (0.009) 0.045*** (0.009) 0.049*** (0.009) 0.137*** (0.009) 0.044 (0.027) 0.043 (0.027) 0.098*** (0.027) 0.128*** (0.030) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000* 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000* 0.016 (0.020) 0.012 (0.020) -0.006 (0.020) -0.026 (0.022) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 / -0.025 (0.070) -0.017 (0.070) 0.345*** (0.068) 0.499*** (0.076) 0.284*** (0.076) 0.286*** (0.076) 0.478*** (0.075) 0.967*** (0.080) -0.100 (0.103) -0.105 (0.103) 0.020 (0.102) 0.009 (0.114) 0.439*** (0.108) 0.440*** (0.108) 0.715*** (0.107) 0.979*** (0.118) 0.080 (0.107) 0.086 (0.108) 0.276** (0.107) 0.389*** (0.120) 0.314** (0.126) 0.309** (0.126) 0.208* (0.125) 0.133 (0.140)
< 표 5-1> 의계속 SES 1 (1) 3 0.194*** (0.044) 0.279*** (0.050) 0.305*** (0.075) 0.062 (0.042) 0.176*** (0.060) 0.293*** (0.056) 0.005 (0.040) -0.004 (0.003) -0.394 (0.292) 0.209* (0.124) 0.040 (0.037) -0.079 (0.088) -0.252 (0.182) 0.283* (0.170) -0.048 (0.075) -0.038 (0.073) -1.402** (0.694) (2) 3 0.192*** (0.045) 0.274*** (0.050) 0.297*** (0.076) 0.071* (0.042) 0.175*** (0.060) 0.318*** (0.056) 0.005 (0.040) -0.004 (0.003) -0.415 (0.293) 0.200 (0.125) 0.033 (0.038) -0.083 (0.089) -0.254 (0.183) 0.299* (0.171) -0.045 (0.075) -0.041 (0.073) -1.378** (0.697) (3) 2 0.239*** (0.044) 0.165*** (0.049) 0.219*** (0.075) -0.011 (0.042) 0.002 (0.060) 0.394*** (0.054) -0.031 (0.040) -0.009*** (0.003) 0.156 (0.291) -0.046 (0.123) 0.029 (0.037) -0.047 (0.088) -0.206 (0.181) 0.118 (0.170) 0.208*** (0.074) 0.107 (0.073) -0.926 (0.692) (4) 2 0.279*** (0.049) 0.138** (0.055) 0.113 (0.083) 0.018 (0.047) 0.077 (0.067) 0.628*** (0.060) -0.015 (0.045) -0.008*** (0.003) 0.049 (0.324) 0.057 (0.139) 0.048 (0.042) -0.046 (0.099) -0.355* (0.200) 0.344* (0.186) 0.158* (0.082) 0.136* (0.081) -2.353*** (0.770) 2,845 2,845 2,870 2,879 0.5489 0.5456 0.5469 0.4315 F 103.7*** 105.5*** 114.2*** 74.6*** :,,.
, 3. 2 1 3. 2 2 (p- =0.087).. (3) 3 2 1. 1 1 2., 1 2. (4) 1 1 1. 1 2., 1 1, 1 2. (3) (4), 1 1, 1 2, 1 2.,,., 1
.,,. 2. 수학사교육시간과수학성적 < 5-2>. < 5-1> (1) (4). 1 3 ((2) ) 2 ((3) ) < 5-1>..,.,,..,. 22) < 5-2>,,. 22).,.
< 표 5-2> 중학생의수학사교육시간과수학성적 (1) 3 (2) 3 (3) 2 (4) 2 3 0.008*** (0.003) 2 0.006 (0.005) 0.009** (0.004) 1 0.006 (0.005) 0.007 (0.005) 0.011** (0.005) 0.021*** (0.005) 2 0.376*** (0.019) 0.381*** (0.019) 1 0.243*** (0.020) 0.240*** (0.020) 0.469*** (0.018) 6 0.044*** (0.009) 0.044*** (0.009) 0.050*** (0.009) 0.142*** (0.009) 0.053** (0.027) 0.052* (0.027) 0.107*** (0.026) 0.132*** (0.029) 0.000 0.000 0.000* 0.000** 0.000 0.000 0.000* 0.000 0.008 (0.020) 0.007 (0.020) -0.009 (0.020) -0.024 (0.022) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 / -0.054 (0.073) -0.047 (0.073) 0.396*** (0.070) 0.556*** (0.078) 0.267*** (0.077) 0.256*** (0.076) 0.463*** (0.074) 0.928*** (0.080) -0.130 (0.104) -0.121 (0.104) -0.004 (0.102) -0.016 (0.114) 0.499*** (0.109) 0.499*** (0.109) 0.727*** (0.106) 1.011*** (0.117) 0.036 (0.108) 0.056 (0.108) 0.222** (0.106) 0.327*** (0.119) 0.298** (0.127) 0.306** (0.126) 0.281** (0.124) 0.229 (0.140) 0.189*** (0.045) 0.189*** (0.045) 0.229*** (0.044) 0.260*** (0.049) 0.271*** (0.050) 0.267*** (0.050) 0.169*** (0.049) 0.119** (0.055)
< 표 5-2> 의계속 SES 1 (1) 3 0.288*** (0.076) 0.076* (0.042) 0.183*** (0.061) 0.322*** (0.055) 0.006 (0.041) -0.003 (0.003) -0.384 (0.294) 0.183 (0.126) 0.016 (0.038) -0.058 (0.090) -0.315* (0.186) 0.303* (0.174) -0.064 (0.076) -0.052 (0.074) -1.354* (0.706) (2) 3 0.290*** (0.076) 0.081* (0.042) 0.174*** (0.061) 0.332*** (0.055) 0.013 (0.040) -0.003 (0.003) -0.323 (0.293) 0.183 (0.126) 0.024 (0.037) -0.062 (0.090) -0.313* (0.185) 0.315* (0.174) -0.085 (0.076) -0.036 (0.073) -1.499** (0.700) (3) 2 0.225*** (0.074) -0.011 (0.042) 0.010 (0.059) 0.380*** (0.053) -0.049 (0.040) -0.007** (0.003) 0.111 (0.288) -0.038 (0.123) 0.020 (0.037) -0.051 (0.088) -0.235 (0.182) 0.168 (0.171) 0.179** (0.074) 0.047 (0.072) -0.683 (0.686) (4) 2 0.094 (0.083) 0.027 (0.047) 0.085 (0.067) 0.624*** (0.059) -0.034 (0.044) -0.007** (0.003) 0.034 (0.322) 0.064 (0.139) 0.026 (0.041) -0.024 (0.099) -0.411** (0.201) 0.418** (0.188) 0.134 (0.083) 0.087 (0.081) -2.125*** (0.765) 2,802 2,844 2,907 2,904 0.5532 0.5488 0.5492 0.4330 F 103.9*** 106.8*** 116.8*** 75.7*** :,,.
제 2 절영어사교육의효과 1. 영어사교육비지출과영어성적 < 5-3>. (1) 3 3, 2, 1, 2 1 6., 3 3.. 2, 1 6 3, 2., 2 1 3. (2) 3 2 1 2 1 3. (3) 2 2 1 3. (4) 2 1 2 1 3., 3 3, 3 3. < 5-3> (5) (6) 2 1
< 표 5-3> 중학생의영어사교육비지출과영어성적 (1) 3 (2) 3 (3) 3 (4) 3 3 0.003*** (0.001) 2-0.001 (0.001) 0.001 (0.001) 0.000 (0.001) 0.003** (0.002) 1-0.001 (0.002) -0.000 (0.002) -0.000 (0.002) 0.005*** (0.002) 2 0.398*** (0.020) 0.397*** (0.020) 1 0.279*** (0.021) 0.281*** (0.021) 0.512*** (0.019) 6 0.048*** (0.008) 0.049*** (0.008) 0.061*** (0.008) 0.146*** (0.009) 0.112*** (0.025) 0.110*** (0.025) 0.172*** (0.027) 0.305*** (0.030) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000* 0.000* 0.000** 0.000** 0.012 (0.019) 0.007 (0.019) -0.008 (0.020) -0.008 (0.022) 0.000 0.000 0.000* 0.000* / 0.099 (0.066) 0.113* (0.066) 0.183*** (0.070) 0.373*** (0.079) 0.236*** (0.070) 0.233*** (0.070) 0.408*** (0.075) 0.974*** (0.081) -0.122 (0.096) -0.120 (0.096) -0.154 (0.102) -0.224* (0.115) 0.381*** (0.098) 0.379*** (0.098) 0.608*** (0.104) 0.837*** (0.117) -0.068 (0.099) -0.062 (0.099) -0.046 (0.106) 0.068 (0.120) 0.274** (0.117) 0.264** (0.117) 0.371*** (0.125) 0.431*** (0.141)
< 표 5-3> 의계속 SES 1 (1) 3 0.200*** (0.042) 0.241*** (0.045) 0.335*** (0.070) 0.016 (0.039) 0.080 (0.055) 0.244*** (0.053) 0.030 (0.038) -0.005** (0.003) -0.397 (0.275) -0.039 (0.116) 0.035 (0.027) 0.006 (0.084) 0.216 (0.169) -0.146 (0.155) -0.188*** (0.070) 0.033 (0.068) -1.427** (0.650) (2) 3 0.201*** (0.042) 0.241*** (0.045) 0.335*** (0.070) 0.020 (0.039) 0.080 (0.055) 0.261*** (0.053) 0.026 (0.038) -0.005** (0.003) -0.386 (0.275) -0.040 (0.116) 0.033 (0.027) 0.003 (0.084) 0.221 (0.169) -0.144 (0.155) -0.189*** (0.070) 0.034 (0.069) -1.346** (0.650) (3) 3 0.222*** (0.045) 0.254*** (0.048) 0.365*** (0.075) 0.029 (0.042) 0.075 (0.059) 0.367*** (0.056) 0.006 (0.040) -0.006** (0.003) -0.429 (0.294) -0.089 (0.124) 0.056* (0.029) 0.014 (0.090) 0.079 (0.180) -0.017 (0.166) -0.158** (0.075) -0.006 (0.073) -1.352* (0.695) (4) 3 0.294*** (0.050) 0.242*** (0.054) 0.334*** (0.085) 0.031 (0.047) 0.103 (0.067) 0.675*** (0.062) -0.032 (0.046) -0.008*** (0.003) -0.356 (0.332) -0.086 (0.140) 0.031 (0.033) 0.013 (0.101) -0.296 (0.203) 0.265 (0.187) -0.166** (0.084) 0.074 (0.083) -1.928** (0.783) 2,834 2,834 2,834 2,834 0.6000 0.5987 0.5418 0.4168 F 127.3*** 130.6*** 106.9*** 66.8*** :,,.
< 표 5-3> 의계속 1 1 6 / SES (5) 2 0.000 (0.001) 0.585*** (0.016) 0.030*** (0.007) 0.163*** (0.024) 0.000 0.000-0.034** (0.017) 0.000** 0.187*** (0.061) 0.440*** (0.065) -0.070 (0.089) 0.547*** (0.091) 0.043 (0.093) 0.225** (0.110) 0.046 (0.039) 0.030 (0.042) 0.069 (0.066) 0.019 (0.037) -0.018 (0.052) 0.262*** (0.049) (6) 2 0.007*** (0.002) 0.127*** (0.008) 0.315*** (0.028) 0.000 0.000-0.036* (0.021) 0.001** 0.405*** (0.073) 1.105*** (0.075) -0.136 (0.108) 0.799*** (0.109) 0.181 (0.112) 0.297** (0.132) 0.125*** (0.047) 0.015 (0.051) 0.035 (0.079) 0.021 (0.044) 0.018 (0.062) 0.631*** (0.057)
< 표 5-3> 의계속 1 (5) 2-0.048 (0.035) -0.003 (0.002) -0.110 (0.257) -0.121 (0.108) 0.055** (0.025) 0.034 (0.078) -0.380** (0.158) 0.317** (0.146) 0.079 (0.065) -0.086 (0.064) -0.048 (0.607) (6) 2-0.092** (0.043) -0.005* (0.003) -0.017 (0.310) -0.094 (0.130) 0.026 (0.030) 0.012 (0.094) -0.803*** (0.190) 0.644*** (0.175) 0.074 (0.079) 0.004 (0.077) -0.702 (0.731) 2,899 2,899 0.6335 0.4671 F 165.2*** 86.7*** :,,.. (5) 1 1 2. (6) 1 1 2. 2,.
,.,,. 23),. < 5-3> (1)~(3) 2 1, 3 3.,.,. 2. 영어사교육시간과영어성적 < 5-4>. (1) (4) < 5-3> 23) < 5-3> (5) (6) 0.6335 0.4671. 1 1 (, ) 1 2.,.
< 표 5-4> 중학생의영어사교육시간과영어성적 (1) 3 3 0.011*** (0.003) 2-0.004 (0.004) 1 0.002 (0.004) 2 1 6 / 0.400*** (0.020) 0.291*** (0.021) 0.048*** (0.008) 0.099*** (0.025) 0.000 0.000** 0.010 (0.018) 0.000 0.102 (0.068) 0.188*** (0.070) -0.051 (0.095) 0.394*** (0.098) -0.176* (0.099) 0.275** (0.117) 0.218*** (0.042) 0.238*** (0.045) (2) 3-0.000 (0.004) 0.003 (0.004) 0.399*** (0.020) 0.291*** (0.021) 0.050*** (0.008) 0.097*** (0.025) 0.000 0.000** 0.007 (0.018) 0.000 0.124* (0.067) 0.199*** (0.070) -0.040 (0.095) 0.388*** (0.098) -0.163* (0.099) 0.273** (0.117) 0.224*** (0.041) 0.249*** (0.045) (3) 3 0.005 (0.004) 0.005 (0.005) 0.523*** (0.018) 0.061*** (0.008) 0.172*** (0.027) 0.000 0.000** -0.008 (0.020) 0.000 0.189*** (0.072) 0.364*** (0.074) -0.083 (0.102) 0.623*** (0.104) -0.181* (0.105) 0.404*** (0.125) 0.244*** (0.044) 0.260*** (0.048) (4) 3 0.013** (0.005) 0.016** (0.005) 0.148*** (0.009) 0.302*** (0.030) 0.000 0.000*** -0.013 (0.022) 0.001** 0.421*** (0.081) 0.951*** (0.081) -0.143 (0.115) 0.853*** (0.118) -0.059 (0.120) 0.452*** (0.142) 0.310*** (0.050) 0.224*** (0.054)
< 표 5-4> 의계속 SES 1 (1) 3 0.331*** (0.070) 0.029 (0.039) 0.063 (0.056) 0.265*** (0.052) 0.002 (0.038) -0.005** (0.003) -0.315 (0.273) -0.104 (0.117) 0.029 (0.027) 0.038 (0.085) 0.231 (0.170) -0.114 (0.156) -0.185*** (0.070) -0.005 (0.068) (2) 3 0.346*** (0.070) 0.027 (0.039) 0.059 (0.056) 0.269*** (0.051) 0.002 (0.038) -0.005** (0.003) -0.269 (0.273) -0.114 (0.117) 0.026 (0.027) 0.016 (0.085) 0.254 (0.169) -0.127 (0.155) -0.197*** (0.070) 0.013 (0.068) (3) 3 0.381*** (0.075) 0.037 (0.042) 0.044 (0.059) 0.377*** (0.054) -0.021 (0.040) -0.006** (0.003) -0.345 (0.291) -0.181 (0.125) 0.052* (0.029) 0.027 (0.090) 0.105 (0.180) 0.028 (0.166) -0.169** (0.075) -0.029 (0.072) (4) 3 0.363*** (0.085) 0.046 (0.047) 0.064 (0.068) 0.717*** (0.060) -0.062 (0.046) -0.007** (0.003) -0.270 (0.331) -0.184 (0.142) 0.033 (0.032) 0.058 (0.103) -0.295 (0.204) 0.316* (0.188) -0.167** (0.085) 0.049 (0.082) -0.901-0.897-0.882-1.427* (0.653) (0.649) (0.693) (0.787) 2,795 2,836 2,836 2,836 0.6083 0.6040 0.5487 0.4167 F 129.9*** 133.6*** 110.0*** 66.8*** :,,.
< 표 5-4> 의계속 1 1 6 / SES (5) 2 0.009** (0.004) 0.586*** (0.016) 0.031*** (0.007) 0.188*** (0.023) 0.000 0.000-0.035** (0.017) 0.000** 0.192*** (0.061) 0.429*** (0.064) -0.086 (0.087) 0.547*** (0.089) -0.016 (0.091) 0.264** (0.107) 0.045 (0.038) 0.029 (0.041) 0.077 (0.064) 0.020 (0.036) -0.028 (0.051) 0.271*** (0.047) (6) 2 0.024*** (0.005) 0.129*** (0.008) 0.331*** (0.028) 0.000 0.000* -0.041** (0.021) 0.001*** 0.452*** (0.074) 1.109*** (0.074) -0.160 (0.106) 0.796*** (0.108) 0.134 (0.110) 0.325** (0.130) 0.110** (0.046) -0.012 (0.050) 0.049 (0.078) 0.029 (0.044) -0.003 (0.062) 0.660*** (0.055)
< 표 5-4> 의계속 1 (5) 2-0.052 (0.035) -0.002 (0.002) -0.211 (0.251) -0.157 (0.107) 0.059** (0.025) 0.022 (0.077) -0.401** (0.156) 0.395*** (0.143) 0.067 (0.064) -0.105* (0.063) (6) 2-0.107** (0.042) -0.003 (0.003) -0.076 (0.305) -0.135 (0.130) 0.032 (0.030) 0.041 (0.094) -0.830*** (0.188) 0.713*** (0.174) 0.073 (0.078) -0.029 (0.076) 0.006 (0.595) -0.471 (0.723) 2,938 2,938 0.6441 0.4751 F 175.4*** 90.8*** :,,..,,., < 5-4> (5) 2 1 1 5%. < 5-2>. (6) 1 1
2. 제 3 절국어사교육의효과 1. 국어사교육비지출과국어성적. 3 (0, ) 13 9, 13 1 5 4.. < 5-5>. (1) 3 3, 2, 1, 2 1 6., 3 3., 2, 1 3. (2) 3 2 1 3. (3) 2 2 2 1 3. (4) 2 1 1 2. (5) 1
< 표 5-5> 중학생의국어사교육비지출과국어성적 3 2 1 2 1 6 / (1) 3 0.001 (0.002) -0.004 (0.003) -0.004 (0.003) 0.401*** (0.020) 0.222*** (0.021) 0.035*** (0.009) 0.179*** (0.030) 0.000 0.000 0.026 (0.021) 0.000-0.069 (0.071) 0.406*** (0.084) 0.042 (0.110) 0.464*** (0.086) -0.373*** (0.104) 0.389*** (0.138) 0.161*** (0.048) 0.190*** (0.052) (2) 3-0.004 (0.002) -0.004 (0.003) 0.402*** (0.020) 0.221*** (0.021) 0.035*** (0.009) 0.179*** (0.030) 0.000 0.000 0.026 (0.021) 0.000-0.068 (0.071) 0.407*** (0.084) 0.044 (0.110) 0.464*** (0.086) -0.374*** (0.104) 0.387*** (0.138) 0.160*** (0.048) 0.189*** (0.052) (3) 3-0.002 (0.003) -0.002 (0.003) 0.141*** (0.010) 0.452*** (0.034) 0.000 0.000-0.007 (0.025) 0.000 0.130 (0.085) 1.070*** (0.095) 0.019 (0.131) 0.973*** (0.098) -0.486*** (0.123) 0.615*** (0.160) 0.231*** (0.056) 0.182*** (0.061)
< 표 5-5> 의계속 SES 1 (1) 3 0.333*** (0.079) -0.002 (0.046) 0.114* (0.061) 0.288*** (0.058) 0.086** (0.042) -0.004 (0.003) 0.007 (0.314) 0.152 (0.131) 0.088* (0.046) 0.014 (0.095) -0.217 (0.194) 0.204 (0.181) -0.162** (0.079) 0.107 (0.078) (2) 3 0.332*** (0.079) -0.001 (0.046) 0.114* (0.061) 0.289*** (0.058) 0.086** (0.042) -0.004 (0.003) 0.008 (0.314) 0.152 (0.131) 0.087* (0.046) 0.015 (0.095) -0.215 (0.194) 0.202 (0.181) -0.161** (0.079) 0.106 (0.078) (3) 3 0.212** (0.093) 0.051 (0.053) 0.131* (0.073) 0.518*** (0.067) 0.019 (0.050) -0.005 (0.003) -0.040 (0.370) 0.136 (0.155) 0.021 (0.054) -0.034 (0.111) -0.544** (0.225) 0.583*** (0.208) -0.143 (0.093) 0.085 (0.091) -2.669*** -2.654*** -3.095*** (0.729) (0.729) (0.857) 2,597 2,597 2,555 0.4966 0.4965 0.3180 F 76.6*** 79.0*** 39.2*** :,,.
< 표 5-5> 의계속 1 1 6 / (4) 2-0.004* (0.002) 0.483*** (0.018) 0.056*** (0.009) 0.247*** (0.029) 0.000 0.000-0.040** (0.020) 0.000 0.178** (0.069) 0.635*** (0.080) 0.182* (0.107) 0.477*** (0.083) 0.049 (0.100) 0.196 (0.133) 0.102** (0.046) 0.072 (0.050) -0.017 (0.076) -0.019 (0.044) 0.031 (0.059) (5) 2 0.000 (0.003) 0.145*** (0.009) 0.471*** (0.031) 0.000 0.000** -0.056** (0.023) 0.000 0.308*** (0.078) 1.169*** (0.088) 0.094 (0.121) 0.817*** (0.091) -0.152 (0.113) 0.335** (0.147) 0.213*** (0.052) 0.109* (0.056) -0.038 (0.086) 0.011 (0.049) 0.064 (0.067)
< 표 5-5> 의계속 SES 1 (4) 2 0.209*** (0.055) -0.059 (0.041) -0.001 (0.003) 0.101 (0.303) 0.044 (0.126) -0.052 (0.044) -0.117 (0.092) -0.125 (0.188) 0.296* (0.176) -0.052 (0.077) -0.123 (0.076) -0.438 (0.700) (5) 2 0.372*** (0.061) -0.063 (0.046) -0.003 (0.003) 0.131 (0.342) 0.063 (0.142) -0.080 (0.050) -0.176* (0.103) -0.367* (0.209) 0.535*** (0.194) -0.009 (0.085) -0.138* (0.084) -1.502* (0.784) 2,667 2,764 0.5123 0.3688 F 92.3*** 55.1*** :,,. 1 2. 24) 24) 2, (2005)..,,. (1)
2. 국어사교육시간과국어성적 < 5-6>. < 5-5>,. (1) (3) 2 2 3. (4) (5) 2 < 5-5>., (5) 1 1 2. 3. 소결... (, OLS (quantile), (2) ( ). (1) 4, (2) 5.
< 표 5-6> 중학생의국어사교육시간과국어성적 3 2 1 2 1 6 / (1) 3 0.003 (0.004) -0.011* (0.006) -0.001 (0.006) 0.402*** (0.020) 0.229*** (0.021) 0.030*** (0.009) 0.203*** (0.031) 0.000 0.000 0.033 (0.021) 0.000-0.085 (0.074) 0.391*** (0.085) 0.024 (0.112) 0.450*** (0.087) -0.400*** (0.106) 0.484*** (0.139) (2) 3-0.009 (0.006) -0.001 (0.006) 0.402*** (0.020) 0.229*** (0.021) 0.031*** (0.009) 0.199*** (0.030) 0.000 0.000 0.035* (0.021) 0.000-0.087 (0.073) 0.382*** (0.084) 0.009 (0.111) 0.464*** (0.086) -0.379*** (0.104) 0.476*** (0.138) (3) 3-0.011* (0.007) 0.006 (0.007) 0.141*** (0.010) 0.469*** (0.033) 0.000 0.000** -0.004 (0.024) 0.000 0.137 (0.087) 1.034*** (0.095) 0.018 (0.131) 0.959*** (0.098) -0.468*** (0.123) 0.749*** (0.160)
< 표 5-6> 의계속 SES 1 (1) 3 0.199*** (0.048) 0.242*** (0.053) 0.355*** (0.080) -0.012 (0.046) 0.104* (0.063) 0.267*** (0.058) 0.091** (0.043) -0.003 (0.003) -0.128 (0.314) 0.090 (0.134) 0.099** (0.046) 0.033 (0.096) -0.173 (0.197) 0.144 (0.183) -0.152* (0.081) 0.138* (0.079) -2.790*** (0.741) (2) 3 0.196*** (0.048) 0.229*** (0.052) 0.355*** (0.079) -0.007 (0.046) 0.096 (0.062) 0.268*** (0.058) 0.094** (0.043) -0.003 (0.003) -0.111 (0.312) 0.088 (0.133) 0.095** (0.046) 0.028 (0.095) -0.180 (0.194) 0.182 (0.181) -0.140* (0.080) 0.121 (0.078) -2.838*** (0.731) (3) 3 0.268*** (0.056) 0.227*** (0.061) 0.262*** (0.093) 0.028 (0.053) 0.102 (0.073) 0.503*** (0.067) 0.011 (0.049) -0.003 (0.003) -0.158 (0.364) 0.053 (0.155) 0.031 (0.053) -0.007 (0.111) -0.487** (0.223) 0.559*** (0.206) -0.148 (0.094) 0.089 (0.090) -3.070*** (0.850) 2,549 2,591 2,577 0.4986 0.4990 0.3192 F 75.8*** 79.6*** 39.8*** :,,.
< 표 5-6> 의계속 1 1 6 / (4) 2-0.002 (0.006) 0.480*** (0.018) 0.061*** (0.009) 0.261*** (0.028) 0.000 0.000-0.038* (0.020) 0.000 0.197*** (0.070) 0.606*** (0.079) 0.200* (0.106) 0.494*** (0.082) 0.068 (0.099) 0.202 (0.132) 0.090** (0.046) 0.061 (0.050) -0.035 (0.076) -0.018 (0.044) 0.013 (0.059) (5) 2 0.006 (0.006) 0.151*** (0.009) 0.473*** (0.031) 0.000 0.000** -0.055** (0.023) 0.000 0.335*** (0.079) 1.120*** (0.087) 0.091 (0.119) 0.822*** (0.090) -0.118 (0.112) 0.351** (0.146) 0.200*** (0.051) 0.102* (0.055) -0.037 (0.085) -0.006 (0.048) 0.042 (0.066)
< 표 5-6> 의계속 SES 1 (4) 2 0.204*** (0.055) -0.087** (0.040) -0.001 (0.003) 0.068 (0.300) 0.016 (0.126) -0.073* (0.044) -0.090 (0.091) -0.068 (0.187) 0.257 (0.175) -0.070 (0.077) -0.130* (0.075) -0.024 (0.697) (5) 2 0.366*** (0.060) -0.086* (0.045) -0.002 (0.003) 0.071 (0.336) 0.006 (0.142) -0.092* (0.049) -0.129 (0.102) -0.315 (0.207) 0.494** (0.192) -0.007 (0.085) -0.141* (0.083) -1.171 (0.776) 2,696 2,817 0.5176 0.3744 F 95.3*** 57.5*** :,,. [2005])..
.,.,... 제 4 절과목별성적분위에따른사교육의효과 (10%) (25%) (50%) (75%)(90%),. OLS,. OLS.. 1. 과목별성적분위별사교육비지출의효과가. 수학 < 5-7> 5.
< 표 5-7> 중학생의수학성적분위별사교육비지출의효과 1(n=5,139) 2(n=5,247) 3(n=5,286).029*** (.002).029*** (.002).017*** (.001) 10%.019*** (.001).011*** (.002).005*** (.002) 25% 50% 75%.036*** (.004).024*** (.003).013*** (.003).042*** (.004).041*** (.002).021*** (.003).030*** (.003).041*** (.002).018*** (.002) 90%.021*** (.002).029*** (.003).011*** (.001) : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), *** 1%. :,,. 1 3 3,..,, U. 25), 3.,., 2 U. 25) 90% 4 90% 75%.,, (measurement boundary issue) U.
나. 영어 < 5-8> 5.. < 표 5-8> 중학생의영어성적분위별사교육비지출의효과 1(n=5,188) 2(n=5,219) 3(n=5,051).038*** (.002).031*** (.001).018*** (.001) 10%.024*** (.002).017*** (.002).006*** (.002) 25% 50% 75%.040*** (.003).030*** (.004).014*** (.003).053*** (.003).044*** (.003).026*** (.002).046*** (.002).038*** (.002).023*** (.002) 90%.033*** (.004).022*** (.002).012*** (.001) : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), *** 1%. :,,., U.,., ( ) 1. 다. 국어 < 5-9> 5.
< 표 5-9> 중학생의국어성적분위별사교육비지출의효과 1(n=5,174) 2(n=5,252) 3(n=4,865).008** (.003).015*** (.003).000 (.002) 10%.010*** (.003).016*** (.004).002 (.002) 25%.009* (.005).015*** (.003).005* (.003) 50%.000 (.004).010*** (.004).002 (.002) 75%.005 (.004).007** (.003).001 (.001) 90% ---.002 (.002).000 (.001) : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,..,,., 2 U., 3,. 2. 과목별성적분위별사교육시간의효과가. 수학 < 5-10> 5. < 5-7>,.
< 표 5-10> 중학생의수학성적분위별사교육시간의효과 1(n=5,254) 2(n=5,423) 3(n=5,427).102*** (.006).082*** (.005).045*** (.003) 10%.042*** (.006).029*** (.006).011*** (.003) 25% 50% 75%.084*** (.012).068*** (.010).037*** (.008).140*** (.012).118*** (.006).076*** (.011).105*** (.010).122*** (.005).072*** (.007) 90%.070*** (.005).077*** (.008).038*** (.004) : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), *** 1%. :,,., (2 ), U., 3.,,., 2 U. 나. 영어 < 5-11> 5. < 5-8>.,, U.,.
< 표 5-11> 중학생의영어성적분위별사교육시간의효과 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 1(n=5,322).106*** (.006).053*** (.012).100*** (.009).148*** (.016).133*** (.011).089*** (.010) 2(n=5,413).092*** (.005).041*** (.005).081*** (.010).131*** (.008).122*** (.008).061*** (.005) 3(n=5,175).028*** (.003).016** (.007).041*** (.007).080*** (.008).061*** (.007).035*** (.003) : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), ***, ** 1%, 5%. :,,. 다. 국어 < 5-12> 5., < 5-9>. < 표 5-12> 중학생의국어성적분위별사교육시간의효과 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 1 (n=5,325).020*** (.007).024*** (.008).018* (.010).000 (.008) -.002 (.007).000 (.002) 2 (n=5,413).014** (.007).026*** (.008).031*** (.009).017** (.008).000 (.007).000 (.006) 3 (n=5,051).008* (.004).008** (.004).019** (.008).006 (.007).011** (.005).000 (.003) : ( ) (bootstrapped standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,.
,,., 2 U., 3,. 3. 소결,.,,,,, 2, 3.,,,,, 1.,, 2 3.., ( ). 26) 26) Baker et al.(2001) 41 (remedial strategy),,, (enrichment strategy).
제 5 절내생성을고려한과목별사교육비의효과.,. 1. 사교육비의도구변수를이용한분석결과...,.,,. 27),. < 5-1>, < 5-2>, < 5-3> (1). < 5-1> (1) 10% (t =1.70).. 27) 3 0.8355, 0.4425, 0.4567.
,... (,, ),.,.. 28) ( ), (< 5-1>, < 5-3>, < 5-5> (1) ),., ( ),. ( ) (2010) OLS.,,. 28),,, ( [2009a] ).
.,. < 5-1>, < 5-3>, < 5-5> (1) (, ) 2 (2SLS).,. 가. 수학 < 5-13> < 5-1> (1) OLS (, ).,. 10%.,.. (3) (precision) (relevance).
< 표 5-13> 수학성적에대한사교육비효과의도구변수추정 (n=2,587) (1) OLS.0041*** (.0011) (2) IV ( ).0046* (.0027) (3) IV ( ).0151 (.0196) 0.5499 0.5499 0.5304 F 97.52*** 97.13*** 93.04*** : 1) < 5-1> (1). 2) ( ), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,. 나. 영어 < 5-14> < 5-3> (1) OLS (, ).,,. OLS. 0 (),. (, ),.,.
< 표 5-14> 영어성적에대한사교육비효과의도구변수추정 (n=2,556) (1) OLS.0029*** (.0010) (2) IV ( ) -.0003 (.0025) (3) IV ( ).0007 (.0016) (4) IV ( ).0076 (.0067) 0.6197 0.6182 0.6191 0.6166 F 120.84*** 120.14*** 120.40*** 119.64*** : 1) < 5-3> (1). 2) ( ), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,. 다. 국어, OLS. (, ),. < 5-15>,,...
< 표 5-15> 국어성적에대한사교육비효과의도구변수추정 (n=2,438) (1) OLS.0004 (.0017) (2) IV ( ) -.0009 (.0039) (3) IV ( ).0059 (.0042) (4) IV ( ).0234 (.0512) 0.4999 0.4998 0.4977 0.4601 F 75.14*** 75.12*** 74.86*** 69.60*** : 1) < 5-5> (1). 2) ( ), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,. 라. 소결. 3 3.,..,.. 2. 고정효과패널모형을이용한분석결과 1 3 (2010 2 )
.,,.. (within-estimator),. ( ).,.,, (2005 =100)., (time-invariant). ( 6,,, ) (,,,, )...
(hybrid)..... 가. 수학 < 5-16>. 3 (pooling), 3. (FE) (1) (OLS). OLS, 10 0.153 (, 1 15.3% ). 29)., (2) 10 0.016 ( 1.6%) OLS 10 1. 29) < 5-1> < 5-13> (1). < 5-16> (1), 3 1 1~ 3 3.
< 표 5-16> 수학성적에대한사교육비효과의분석모형별비교 (n=8,268) (1) Pooled OLS (2) FE (3) FE (4) FE + IV( ).0153*** (.0047).0016*** (.0006).0015** (.0007).0029 (.0025).0008 (.0014) (5) Pooled OLS.0041*** (.0015).6924*** (.0106) (6) FE.0016*** (.0006).3777*** (.0143) (7) FE.0016*** (.0006).0000 (.0013).3777*** (.0143) (8) FE + IV( ).0016 (.0024).3777*** (.0143) : 1) ( ), Pooled OLS 3 (cluster robust standard error). 2) ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10%. :,,. (4). (3). (4)., (4).
,., (5) (proxy).,. (5) OLS (1) 70%,. 30) (6).,. 31) (7) (8).,. 30) (2009)... 31) (6) (5) (,, ).
OLS 10 15.3%. OLS 70% 10 4.1%. 10 1.5~1.6%. (1) OLS 10 1,.,,, (2), (3) (6), (7) (robustness). 나. 영어 < 5-17>. (1) OLS, 10 0.177 ( 17.7%). (2) 0.,.,. 32) (3)
< 표 5-17> 영어성적에대한사교육비효과의분석모형별비교 (n=7,923) (1) Pooled OLS (2) FE (3) FE (4) FE + IV( ).0177*** (.0058).0007 (.0006).0004 (.0006).0042* (.0022).0021 (.0018) (5) Pooled OLS (6) FE (7) FE (8) FE + IV( ).0067*** (.0023).0005 (.0006).0003 (.0006).0032 (.0021).0016 (.0012).6812*** (.0121).2974*** (.0115).2971*** (.0115).2968*** (.0115), : < 5-16>. (4), 10%., 10 0.042 ( 4.2%). (1) OLS 4 1. (5). (5) OLS 32),,.
(1) 60%,. (6) 0.,. (8),. OLS. OLS 10 17.7%. OLS 10 6.7%. 0,. 10% (4) 10 4.2%. OLS. 다. 국어 < 5-18>. (1) OLS
< 표 5-18> 국어성적에대한사교육비효과의분석모형별비교 (n=7,848) (1) Pooled OLS (2) FE (3) FE (4) FE + IV( ).0055*** (.0019).0025* (.0014).0028* (.0015) -.0015 (.0051) -.0006 (.0007) (5) Pooled OLS (6) FE (7) FE (8) FE + IV( ) -.0041*** (.0014).0021 (.0014).0025* (.0014) -.0024 (.0050) -.0007 (.0007).5785*** (.0103).2212*** (.0137).2312*** (.0137).2320*** (.0138), : < 5-16>., 10 0.055 ( 5.5%). 33) (2),., (3), (4),. (0 33) < 5-18> (1) < 5-5> < 5-15> (1). < 5-18> (1), 3 1 1~ 3 3.
). (5). 34) OLS.. ( ). 35), (6) (2) (+). (8). (6) (8). 10%, 10 0.025~0.028 ( 2.5~2.8% )., (+). 라. 소결. (+), OLS 34) (,, ),. (7) (collinearity). 35) < 5-9>.
.,., OLS.,.,,.,,,.. OLS, 10 1, 5 1, 2 1...,..,
,.,,. 제 6 절과목별상대평가성적에대한사교육의효과. 9 11 2,,. 4,. 2. (),. 2 5. 1~5 5 (5= 20%, 4= 20%, 3= 20%, 2= 20%, 1= 20%) 5. (ordered logit). 2, ().,
,,, ( ). < 5-19> 2,. 2.,. < 5-20> 2 ().,.,..,.,,.,.,. 36) 36),.,.
< 표 5-19> 중 2 상대평가성적에대한사교육경험과자기주도학습의효과 2 (1) 0.107 (0.069) 2 0.244*** (0.028) 2-0.213 (0.156) 1 2 0.272*** (0.064) 0.367*** (0.085) 0.837*** (0.150) -0.568*** (0.117) -0.360*** (0.134) -0.367* (0.188) -0.114 (0.168) 0.133 (0.180) -0.444** (0.211) -0.295*** (0.112) -0.137 (0.187) 0.185 (0.181) (2) 0.125* (0.068) 0.190*** (0.027) -0.153 (0.155) 0.138** (0.063) 0.392*** (0.084) 1.036*** (0.150) -0.434*** (0.115) -0.287** (0.131) -0.571*** (0.185) -0.056 (0.165) -0.116 (0.177) -0.475** (0.210) -0.327*** (0.113) 0.004 (0.184) 0.163 (0.181) (3) 0.085 (0.068) 0.201*** (0.027) -0.196 (0.155) -0.051 (0.063) 0.285*** (0.083) 0.908*** (0.150) -0.480*** (0.115) -0.356*** (0.131) -0.413** (0.179) -0.014 (0.165) 0.084 (0.176) -0.517** (0.210) -0.307*** (0.111) 0.203 (0.185) 0.029 (0.181) (4) 0.040 (0.069) 0.210*** (0.027) -0.199 (0.157) 0.157** (0.063) 0.363*** (0.084) 0.950*** (0.149) -0.460*** (0.116) -0.280** (0.132) -0.483*** (0.186) -0.026 (0.167) 0.094 (0.178) -0.415* (0.213) -0.242** (0.113) 0.085 (0.186) 0.241 (0.180),..
< 표 5-19> 의계속 (1) 0.072 (0.181) -0.048 (0.146) 0.138 (0.158) -0.312** (0.146) -0.284** (0.132) 0.848 (0.670) (2) 0.002 (0.178) -0.236 (0.144) 0.152 (0.158) -0.362** (0.144) -0.295** (0.132) 0.984 (0.666) (3) 0.001 (0.178) -0.290** (0.146) 0.188 (0.156) -0.335** (0.144) -0.279** (0.131) 1.276* (0.721) (4) 0.116 (0.180) -0.115 (0.144) 0.182 (0.157) -0.314** (0.147) -0.252* (0.132) 0.968 (0.671) 3,502 3,502 3,502 3,499 Log Likelihood -4247.37-4554.68-4646.85-4313.56 LR Chi-square 224.9*** 192.0*** 177.6*** 188.0*** : 9 11.,,.,. 37),. 37), 2 0.2021, 0.1980, (+).
< 표 5-20> 중 2 상대평가성적에대한사교육개수와자기주도학습의효과 2 (1) 0.096* (0.052) 2 0.243*** (0.028) 2-0.258 (0.161) 1 2 0.270*** (0.064) 0.362*** (0.085) 0.820*** (0.151) -0.560*** (0.117) -0.354*** (0.134) -0.363* (0.188) -0.109 (0.169) 0.137 (0.180) -0.444** (0.211) -0.288** (0.112) -0.131 (0.187) 0.191 (0.181) 0.079 (0.181) -0.038 (0.146) (2) 0.089* (0.052) 0.188*** (0.027) -0.177 (0.160) 0.139** (0.063) 0.390*** (0.084) 1.026*** (0.152) -0.426*** (0.115) -0.282** (0.131) -0.570*** (0.185) -0.052 (0.166) -0.115 (0.177) -0.473** (0.210) -0.318*** (0.113) 0.006 (0.184) 0.167 (0.181) 0.004 (0.178) -0.230 (0.144) (3) 0.043 (0.052) 0.200*** (0.027) -0.193 (0.160) -0.047 (0.063) 0.287*** (0.083) 0.911*** (0.151) -0.476*** (0.115) -0.355*** (0.131) -0.413** (0.179) -0.012 (0.165) 0.082 (0.176) -0.512** (0.210) -0.302*** (0.111) 0.200 (0.185) 0.030 (0.181) -0.003 (0.178) -0.289** (0.146) (4) 0.030 (0.052) 0.210*** (0.027) -0.209 (0.162) 0.157** (0.063) 0.362*** (0.084) 0.946*** (0.151) -0.457*** (0.116) -0.279** (0.132) -0.482*** (0.186) -0.025 (0.167) 0.095 (0.178) -0.414* (0.213) -0.239** (0.113) 0.086 (0.187) 0.243 (0.180) 0.117 (0.181) -0.112 (0.144)
< 표 5-20> 의계속 (1) 0.146 (0.158) -0.308** (0.146) -0.278** (0.132) 0.853 (0.670) (2) 0.155 (0.158) -0.361** (0.144) -0.291** (0.132) 0.980 (0.666) (3) 0.184 (0.156) -0.338** (0.144) -0.278** (0.131) 1.266* (0.721) (4) 0.184 (0.157) -0.313** (0.147) -0.251* (0.132) 0.967 (0.671) 3,502 3,502 3,502 3,499 Log Likelihood -4246.85-4554.89-4647.27-4313.56 LR Chi-square 226.0*** 191.5*** 176.7*** 188.0*** : 9 11.
제 6 장수능성적및대학진학성과에대한사교육의효과 ( ) (high-stake test).,..,. 제 1 절수능성적에대한사교육의효과 1. 수능영역별백분위에대한사교육의효과 2004 3. 2004 11
2005, (), ( ). 38) 2 2 (2003 9 ~2004 2 ) 3 (2004 3 ~12 ). 3,,.,. 39)..,,. 2 3. 40), 38) (). [{( )+( /2)}/ () ] 100, 2005. 39) 2004 3 2005 1, 2008 9. 2004 3 2004 3( ). 40),.
16. < 6-1> < 6-2>. 41) < 6-1> 2 3, < 6-2> 2 3 (collinearity) 3.,..,.. < 6-1> 10% 3 100 0.0006 2, 3. 3 < 6-2>, 100 0.0007. 42) 3. < 6-2> 3 41),. 42) 2005 610,257 0.0007% 4.27 3 100 4.
3~20 11~14, 20~30 19~20, 30 27. 43) 2 3 < 6-1> 3~20 8~10, 20~30 12~14, 30 21. 44), < 6-2> 3~10 8~10, 10~30 15~18, 30 22.. < 6-2> 10 12 30 18.,. 2 3,. 45) 43), 3 20~30( 3~4) 12. 44) 2 3, 2 3.. 45), 2004 3 (2010) 1 1( 4). 2004 3.
. 46),...,.. (),. 47).,.,,.,. 46).. 47), (2010).
< 표 6-1> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 2, 고 3 사교육비지출의효과 (1) 2 ( ) 0.7926 (3.4418) 3 ( ) -0.0001 (0.0003) 3 (: 3 ) 3 5-1.539 (3.154) 5 10-1.453 (3.316) 10 15 8.875** (3.851) 15 20 2.987 (4.023) 20 25 7.764* (4.195) 25 30 4.629 (4.367) 30 8.122* (4.289) 2 2.606 (5.917) 3-14.626** (5.748) 2-38.358** (18.997) 3-1.836 (11.810) 4.210* (2.162) ( 3 ) 0.005 (0.005) 1.680*** (0.507) 0.456 (0.615) (2) 4.2367 (3.5604) 0.0006 (0.0004) (3) 1.6312 (3.2588) 0.0006* (0.0003) 9.579*** (3.263) 3.459 (2.986) 7.779** (3.430) 4.507 (3.139) 9.593** (3.984) 10.701*** (3.647) 9.021** (4.161) 9.992*** (3.809) 12.262*** (4.339) 9.860** (3.972) 14.084*** (4.518) 8.397** (4.135) 20.809*** (4.437) 14.075*** (4.061) -18.767*** (6.121) -0.316 (5.602) -18.889*** (5.946) -19.851*** (5.443) -19.543 (19.652) -25.119 (17.987) -1.176 (12.217) -14.111 (11.182) -1.442 (2.236) 2.659 (2.047) 0.001 (0.006) 0.002 (0.005) 0.829 (0.525) 1.655*** (0.481) 0.132 (0.636) 1.080* (0.582) 640 640 640 0.1798 0.2598 0.2586 F 4.3*** 6.9*** 6.8*** :. : (2004 3 ).
< 표 6-2> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 3 사교육비지출의효과 3 ( ) 3 (: 3 ) 3 5 5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 30 30 (1) 0.0002 (0.0003) 4.238 (2.826) 5.695* (3.026) 14.085*** (3.503) 11.423*** (3.854) 17.350*** (4.026) 12.211*** (4.162) 17.858*** (4.137) 3-12.653*** (3.035) 3-15.305* (8.159) ( 3 ) 3.791* (2.008) 0.008 (0.005) 1.547*** (0.471) 0.649 (0.567) (2) 0.0007** (0.0003) 12.347*** (2.852) 11.164*** (3.054) 12.012*** (3.536) 13.778*** (3.890) 19.112*** (4.063) 19.556*** (4.201) 27.499*** (4.176) -29.873*** (3.064) -10.681 (8.236) -1.001 (2.027) 0.004 (0.005) 0.855* (0.476) 0.242 (0.572) (3) 0.0007** (0.0003) 8.060*** (2.663) 10.014*** (2.852) 14.584*** (3.302) 17.052*** (3.633) 18.378*** (3.795) 15.073*** (3.923) 22.479*** (3.899) -17.917*** (2.861) -20.872*** (7.691) 2.176 (1.893) 0.005 (0.005) 1.531*** (0.444) 1.228** (0.534) 749 749 749 0.2086 0.2800 0.3022 F 6.8*** 10.0*** 11.1*** :. : (2004 3 ).
... < 6-3> 2, 3, < 6-4> 3. < 6-3> 2 3, 2 3 1 0.8. 48),. < 6-4> 3,., 3 1 1.5.. 3.,. 49) 48) 2 1 5,200, 3 1 5,000. 49). 3.
< 표 6-3> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 2, 고 3 사교육시간의효과 (1) 2 0.269 (0.336) 3 0.301 (0.255) 3 (: 3 ) 3 5 1.116 (2.369) 5 10 3.877 (2.519) 10 15 8.930*** (2.896) 15 20 5.456* (3.096) 20 25 9.695*** (3.231) 25 30 9.318** (3.692) 30 15.709*** (3.324) 2-6.692 (4.228) 3-4.292 (4.657) 2-5.295 (9.820) 3-7.447 (10.513) 4.659*** (1.736) ( 3 ) 0.002 (0.004) 0.754** (0.381) 1.051** (0.464) (2) 0.855*** (0.260) 0.827*** (0.296) (3) -0.075 (0.315) 0.009 (0.291) 8.239*** (2.398) 2.939 (2.263) 10.705*** (2.543) 7.924*** (2.404) 11.250*** (2.922) 9.801*** (2.767) 11.871*** (3.122) 11.965*** (2.959) 17.096*** (3.251) 14.185*** (3.074) 18.858*** (3.728) 12.757*** (3.526) 26.345*** (3.358) 19.293*** (3.175) -18.393*** (4.277) -8.985** (4.041) -9.527** (4.703) -8.583* (4.448) -24.674** (9.905) -12.440 (9.375) 1.177 (10.615) -14.594 (10.048) -1.161 (1.754) 3.684** (1.662) -0.000 (0.004) 0.002 (0.004) 0.647* (0.386) 1.158*** (0.364) 0.440 (0.468) 1.260*** (0.442) 1,080 1,080 1,080 0.1467 0.2494 0.2273 F 5.8*** 11.2*** 9.9*** :. : (2004 3 ).
< 표 6-4> 수능영역별백분위에대한고 3 사교육시간의효과 (1) 3 0.520** (0.235) 3 (: 3 ) 3 5 5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 30 30 5.695*** (2.012) 11.914*** (2.222) 16.687*** (2.616) 16.170*** (2.896) 20.558*** (3.033) 19.391*** (3.518) 28.424*** (3.163) 3-5.434* (2.801) 3-9.766 (7.784) ( 3 ) 4.380*** (1.516) 0.004 (0.004) 1.006*** (0.335) 1.250*** (0.401) (2) 1.535*** (0.250) 9.146*** (1.987) 13.663*** (2.194) 14.566*** (2.579) 17.169*** (2.854) 23.395*** (2.976) 24.775*** (3.475) 33.829*** (3.124) -19.853*** (2.770) -9.382 (7.669) -0.072 (1.492) 0.001 (0.004) 0.889*** (0.330) 0.545 (0.394) (3) 0.349 (0.247) 6.847*** (1.911) 14.836*** (2.113) 16.344*** (2.487) 20.937*** (2.757) 23.725*** (2.869) 21.829*** (3.349) 30.633*** (3.004) -10.314*** (2.665) -16.170** (7.401) 3.544** (1.440) 0.003 (0.004) 1.302*** (0.318) 1.331*** (0.380) 1,363 1,363 1,363 0.2102 0.2598 0.2819 F 12.7*** 16.7*** 18.7*** :. : (2004 3 ).
2, 3.75, 6.25, 8.75, 11.25, 13.75, 16.25(30 35 32.5 ). 4.6, 3.6, 2.3, 2.0, 2.1, 1.8, 2.1., 2 ( 1 2 ). 3 1 1.5,...,,..., 1.,,. 50),
(3 ) ( [2010] ). ([2010]). 51) [ 6-1] < 6-4>,,. 3,,,,.,. 50) ([2010], [2010] ). 51) (2010), ( ),,.,..
[ 그림 6-1] 주당혼자공부한시간의증가에따른수능백분위상승폭 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~25 25~30 30~ 언어수리외국어 : < 6-4> ( 3 ),,,,,,. :. 2. 수능총점급간에대한사교육의효과 5. 52) 12 9 52) (, 200, 400 ) 12. 400 (1997 ). 1: 140, 2: 141 160, 3: 161 180, 4: 181 200, 5: 201 220, 6: 221 240, 7: 241 260, 8 : 261 280, 9: 281 300, 10: 301 320, 11: 321 340, 12 : 341., 200 (1994 96 ) 400 0.5.,