에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 10, Number 1, March 2011 : pp. 1~24 국내화력발전산업에대한연료와자본의대체성분석 1
2
3
~ 4
5
F F P F P F ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 6
ln ln ln ln ln 7
ln ln ln ln 8
ln ln ln 9
ln ln 10
~ 11
< 표 1> 자료통계 ( 표본크기 = 22) ~ 12
< 표 2> 가설검증결과 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 13
ln ln < 표 3> 최종형태의제약비용함수추정결과 14
15
11) ln ln ln ln ln ln = ln ln ln ln ln ln 16
< 표 4> 자기및교차탄력성추정결과 (1997 년기준 ) 17
< 표 5> 대체탄력성추정결과 (1997 년기준 ) ln ln ln ln ln 18
[ 그림 1] 자본암특가격연도별변화추이 ln 19
접수일 (2011 년 3 월 19 일 ), 수정일 (2010 년 3 월 29 일 ), 게재확정일 (2010 년 3 월 29 일 ) 20
. 2006.. 06-06. :.. 1990. : Translog. 38(2) : 359-384.. 2005.. 05-13. :.. 2003.. 03-13. :.. 1993.. 41 (2) : 29-47.. 1999.. :.. 1997. :. 45(3) : 275-287.. 2003.. 9(1) : 167-185.. 1990..,, : 172-194.. 2009. Post-Kyoto : (CGE). 18(3) : 457-493.. 1999.... 2009.... 2000-2007... 21
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ABSTRACT The more substitutable energy is with capital, the easier it is to achieve the goal of sustainable development in highly energy intensive Korean industrial sector. This paper estimates a restricted cost function, which is derived given the optimal level of capital stock, and measures elasticities of substitution between fossil fuels and capital in the Korean thermal power generation. Empirical results show that capital is strongly substitutable with oil. The effect on the demand for oil of price subsidy for capital is simulated with the estimated price elasticities of demand. The use of oil would be reduced by more than the extent to which the use of capital would be increased, suggesting that a subsidy for investment on improving boiler fuel-efficiency would be likely to be effective in reducing some degree of CO 2 emissions. Keyword:Fuel-capital substitution, Restricted cost function, Thermal power generation 24