2020 2
2020 2 2020 Korea Industry Vision 2020
19 1 23 (1) 23 (2) FTA 25 2 30 (1) 31 (2) 32 (3) 33 (4) 34 (5) 34 3 35 (1) 35 (2) 39 1 4 3 5
(1) 43 (2) 48 2 50 (1) 50 (2) 53 (3) 62 1 63 (1) 2020 63 (2) 64 (3) 66 2 67 3 69 4 71 (1) 71 (2) 72 (3) 2 73 5 74 (1), 75 (2) 76 6 76 (1) 76 (2) 78 (3) 79 (4) 79 (5) 80 7 2020 81 6
1 85 (1) 86 2 2020 : 87 (1), 87 (2), 88 (3), 89 (4), 92 3 2020 93 (1) 93 (2) 2020 94 (3) 2 95 (4) 97 (5) 97 (6) 99 (7) 100 (8) 100 3 102 4 103 5 : 109 1 113 2 114 (1) 115 (2) 116 (3) 117 (4) 118 7
(5) 120 (6) : 121 3 121 (1) 121 (2) 123 (3) 125 (4) 126 (5) 126 (6) - 127 (7) 127 4 128 1 131 (1) 131 (2) 133 (3) 134 2 : 135 (1) 135 (2) 139 3 142 (1) 142 (2) 146 4 2020 146 (1) 146 (2) 147 (3) 149 8
1 152 (1) (Complexity of Technology) 153 (2) (Simplification of Interface) 157 2,, 162 1 171 (1) 171 (2) 174 (3) 176 2 178 (1) 178 (2) 181 3 190 (1) 190 (2) 191 (3) 192 1 197 (1) : NBIC 197 (2) 200 2 205 3 210 9
4 214 (1) : NNI 214 (2) 218 (3) 222 5 225 1 231 2 233 (1) 233 (2) 234 (3) 237 (4) 239 (5) 243 3, 248 (1) : 248 (2) : 255 1 : (Standard War) 265 2 266 (1) : 266 (2) 270 (3) 272 3 273 (1) 274 (2) 276 1 0
4 276 (1) 276 (2) 280 5 2020 282 (1) 282 (2) 283 1 285 2 290 (1) 290 (2) 291 (3) 293 1, 295 2 : 296 (1) : 297 (2) : 299 (3) : -,, 302 (4) 306 3-307 4 2020 309 (1) - 309 (2) - 312 1 1
1 315 2 316 (1) : 316 (2) 319 (3) 321 3 325 (1) 325 (2) 1 : 326 (3) 2 : 328 (4) 330 4 332 (1) 332 (2) 332 (3) 334 1 339 2 343 (1) 343 (2) 344 (3) 346 3 350 (1) 350 (2) 352 1 2
369 1 3
< 1> 15 21 < -1> (WTO ) 26 < -1> 47 < -2> ( ) ( 2004 ~ 2020 ) 59 < -3> 60 < -4> ( ) 61 < -1> 64 < -2> 65 < -3> 8 1 9 68 < -1> OECD 2 020 91 < -2> 2002 ~ 2025 96 < -3> 101 < -4> 110 < -1>, BIS, 124 < -1> 140 < -2> 147 < -3> 148 < -4> 148 14
< VII-1> ( 2005 ) 158 < VII-2> 162 < VII-3> IT 169 < -1> 196 < -1> 200 < -2> 206 < -3> ( =100) : 225 < -1> 2020 232 < -2> 241 < -3> 245 < -4> 2020 247 < -5> 255 < -6> 261 < -7> 263 < -1> 2020 283 < -1> 286 < -2> 287 < -3> 288 < -1> 2020 312 < -1> 326 < -2> 2020 331 < XV-1> OECD ( 2001 ) 355 < -1> 15 360 < -2> 363 < -3> 3 365 1 5
< -4> 3 365 < -5> 367 1 6
<-1> F T A ( RTA ) 26 <-1> 2020 44 <-2> 2020 GDP 10 45 <-3> 2020 46 < III-1> (%) 71 <-1> 1 : 2005~2030 93 <-2> 1 : 2005~2030 95 <-3> : 1970~2025 98 <-1> 122 < VII-1> IT 152 < VII-2> 2020 153 < VII-3> 164 < VII-4> 168 <-1> 172 <-2> 174 <-3> 175 <-4> 194 <-5> 195 1 7
<-1> NBIC 202 <-2> 206 <-3> 208 <-1> Dual Use 235 <-2> 249 < -1> 273 < -2> 277 < -3> 279 < -1> 316 < XV-1> 341 < XV-2> 345 < XV-3> ( L Q Moran ) 348 < XV-4> ITC ( L Q Moran ) 348 < XV-5> 352 < XV-6> 353 < XV-7> 356 < -1> 362 1 8
,,,,,,, (John Naisbitts) 19
(Megatrends: The New Directions Transforming Our Lives), ( t r e n d ),,, 2020,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 0
15,,, 30 1 1,, 15, 15 1) 2), 3) 4) 5) 6) : 7) 8) 9) IT BT NT 10) : 11) : 12) 13) 14) 15) 21
2020 DDA,, E U,, W T O 2020, WTO WTO 23
DDA, 2~5%, ( ) 2% 5% 30% ITA, DDA,, WTO DDA WTO,, WTO, IMF/World Bank 2 4
WTO, IMF, 2020 (FTA: Free Trade Agreement) 1995 WTO, (RTA: Regional Trade Agreement) 2005 7 WTO (RTA) 180, 120 1990 18 2005, WTO EU, 2020, FTA FTA FTA,,, FTA 25
1955~1960 1961~1970 1971~1980 1981~1990 1991~1995 1996~2000 2001~2005 7 3 3 11 10 33 39 81 3 6 17 27 60 99 180 : WTO ( ) 180 180 160 140 120 99 100 80 60 60 40 27 20 17 3 6 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 7 : WTO,, EU, 3, EU, FTA, 2 6
,, EU (NAFTA), FTA, (FTAA),, FTAA FTAA, 2020 FTAA,, FTA, 9 11, FTA, FTA 2020 2007, FTA EU EU EU 2 FTA 27
, 1992 ( ), 1999 11 Euro EU 2020 2020 EU,, EU 2004 5 8 10 EU 25 EU EU, CIS 2020 EU, EU, 1 2 EU FTA, EU EU ASEAN, MERCOSUR, GCC ( ) 3 2 28
,, ASEAN ASEAN 6 (,,,,, ) 1999 4 (,,, ) 10,,, FTA, ASEAN+3(),, ASEAN FTA, GCC FTA, FTA FTA, ASEAN FTA, FTA, 29
FTA, 2004 4 F T A, 70 % FTA F T A,, ASEAN,, 2020 FTA,, 2020 FTA 1), 2020 ( ), 2), 1) (2005) 426, FTA 5 36 ( 1, 3, 5 ) 5 2) 5 32 ( 1, 3, 5 ) 4 3 0
, (driving force) 1980 1990,,,, (local banking service),,, (fundamentals) 31
( : ( A M F ) ) ICT 20 EDI(Electronic Data Interchange),, (on-line), 3 2
20 21,, 40 (40~64 ) (Economist) 2010 CD,, (reverse mortgage) 2020,, 33
, life cycle,,,, 3 4
,, 2020,, 3,,,,,,,,,, 2 35
(Virtual), BRICs, (Intra Firm Trade),, 15 500, 2020, EU,,,,,,, 3 6
,,,,,,,,,, (Build to Order),, 3~6,,, 37
Think Global, Act Regional,,, 2020, (IT),,,, X Y, 3 8
, (FMS),,,,,,,,, (Strategic Planning) RFID(Radio Frequency Identification), 39
, (TQM),,,,,,,,,,,,, 40
,,, 2020,,, (Corporate Venturing),, 2020,,,, 41
, IMF 500 11, 1,000 32, 1,000 67,, 2020, 8~9 1980 2020, 4 2
,,, GDP( ) 2020 31~32%, GDP 2004 306% 2020 314% 43
% 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 : KIET Global Insight(2005) GDP 2005~2010 75%, 2011~2020 58%, 2004 43% 2020 71% GDP 2020 5% GDP 2020 32~37%, 45~6%, 4 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2006~2020 GDP GDP 55 54 52 45 41 38 35 33 32 31 (%) 1 3 5 1 GDP : Deutsche Bank(2005) 19, 20 20 21, 3),,, 4),,,, 2020 (Deutsche Bank) 3) NIC(2004) 4 ) Census Bureau 2020 14, 13 45
2020,,,,,, GDP 2020 13~18%, 2% GDP 2004 142% 2020 113%, 281% 238%,, % 5 4 3 2 1-1 EMU 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 : KIET Global Insight(2005) 4 6
, ( ), 2004 78% 2020 145% 2, : % 2004 2010 2015 2020 329 (259) 370 (292) 382 (310) 387 (315) 78 (64) 118 (93) 132 (108) 145 (125) 09 (07) 12 (10) 14 (12) 16 (13) 75 (44) 72 (41) 64 (38) 56 (32) 41 (45) 39 (43) 39 (41) 39 (40) 11 (10) 10 (09) 09 (08) 08 (07) 421 (412) 384 (373) 371 (353) 360 (338) 105 (81) 95 (76) 90 (72) 85 (69) 44 (54) 43 (51) 42 (50) 42 (50) NAFTA 172 (238) 171 (242) 173 (246) 180 (257) 117 (176) 119 (177) 120 (181) 127 (192) 21 (20) 19 (21) 18 (21) 18 (21) 11 (18) 10 (19) 10 (20) 10 (20) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) : KIET Global Insight(2005) : 1) ( ) 2) ( ) 47
,,,,,,,,,,, (Census Bureau),,,,,,,,,,, 21 14 15 4 8
,,, ( ),, 2020 65 4,,, 2020,, 2020,, 1980 ~ 2000 34% 20 50%,, 2020 8%,, 10 5) 49
,,,,,,,, R&D, 5) 5 0
,,, IT,,, ( ), ( ) (New Manufacturing),, R&D,,,, 51
, R&D R&D,,,,,,, 5 2
,,, EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2020,, 2020, 2020 53
, 2020 10%, 202037% 2 1/3,,,,,,, 2020 12 %, 2020 2004 176% 2020 192%, 64% 125%, 5 4
2004 20% 2020 37% 2010~2015 28% 2020 45% 2020 36% 2020 10%, 2020,, 10%,,,,, 11% 2020 23% 2,, 55
,,,,,,, 10~18%,,,, ( ), 5 6
,, 3 91% 2020 22%,,, 15% 2020,,,, 7~15%, 11% 2020 19% 57
,,, 10% 2020 20% 2,, BT 10%,, 5 8
: % : KIET Global Insight(2005), Korea Industry Development Vision 2020 : World Industry Outlook 5 9 69 (73) 100 (105) 94 (97) 39 (39) 55 (52) 48 (47) 44 (49) 55 (55) 49 (63) 64 (65),, 62 (47) 90 (42) 80 (104) -03 (44) 50 (54) 28 (44) 22 (23) 41 (60) 37 (64) 54 (50) 65 (72) 72 (99) 138 (75) 49 (28) 64 (61) 49 (49) 49 (47) 61 (55) (64 (63) 63 (71) 139 (106) 177 (150) 176 (168) 79 (79) 87 (103) 95 (91) 94 (78) 94 (82) 94 (130) 119 (127) 20 (31) 21 (62) 72 (30) 04 (-07) 22 (22) 06 (05) 05 (05) 11 (12) 21 (23) 20 (15) 33 (38) 38 (67) 75 (57) 06 (01) 22 (31) 20 (19) 17 (13) 24 (35) 43 (46) 38 (26) 76 (85) 121 (110) 88 (113) 23 (50) 63 (50) 43 (45) 32 (47) 50 (57) 46 (52) 49 (70) 83 (92) 124 (123) 131 (121) 42 (56) 75 (72) 57 (57) 54 (70) 60 (57) 58 (76) 80 (77) 47 (71) 116 (107) 95 (78) 28 (42) 63 (50) 52 (51) 51 (61) 55 (54) 70 (58) 70 (65)
: 10 2004 5673 1143 165 2384 187 1431 1955 611 80 4070 2020 1,3301 3780 561 4427 118 4024 2871 1369 554 1,1799 2004 808 641 119 297 106 473 158 202 01 851,, 2020 2945 3257 375 667 272 1784 234 589 79 1816 2004 178 349 10 176 34 173 207 29 78 68 2020 893 1815 200 476 70 419 457 29 202 13 2004 63 16 17 24 88 313 47 72 38 109 2020 143 310 237 82 440 1621 402 406 313 926 2004 30 86 26 183 169 77 52 05 64 153 2020 128 407 100 206 239 103 58 05 87 184 2004 114 54 08 27 90 75 19 19 107 135 2020 253 236 11 24 116 83 37 46 209 173 2004 819 105 57 554 216 242 495 134 209-240 2020 1168 1453 356 451 341 145 472 453 482 2032 2004 1176 103 51 623 127 226 173 21 121 401 2020 1768 820 297 941 338 523 42 16 428 1126 2004 1060 121 09 1259 03 401 869 190 57 977 2020 1110 507 10 1890 189 1017 1564 436 70 2367 : KIET Global Insight(2005), Korea Industry Development Vision 2020 : World Industry Outlook 60
6 1 : % : KIET Global Insight(2005), Korea Industry Development Vision 2020 : World Industry Outlook,, 2004 329 (259) 467 (266) 266 (298) 70 (95) 283 (284) 255 (192) 373 (296) 506 (408) 217 (120) 2020 387 (315) 573 (262) 299 (351) 118 (99) 311 (352) 276 (206) 480 (396) 571 (499) 191 (143 2004 78 (64) 197 (60) 38 (112) 18 (10) 62 (102) 57 (35) 91 (80) 111 (103) 15 (28) 2020 145 (125) 367 (55) 47 (194) 50 (20) 68 (201) 66 (42) 225 (156) 229 (197) 36 (56) 2004 09 (07) 28 (04) 11 (13) 12 (04) 17 (06) 07 (04) 02 (07) 02 (06) 02 (03) 2020 16 (13) 45 (08) 35 (16) 34 (11) 40 (08) 14 (09) 03 (14) 04 (11) 04 (04) 2004 75 (44) 16 (65) 76 (36) 18 (28) 98 (24) 40 (39) 92 (42) 102 (49) 141 (21) 2020 56 (32) 07 (61) 66 (22) 13 (20) 84 (16) 28 (31) 53 (33) 62 (35) 93 (16) 2004 41 (45) 42 (55) 34 (41) 09 (48) 126 (60) 101 (75) 25 (44) 26 (37) 38 (39) 2020 39 (40) 39 (60) 38 (41) 07 (47) 142 (64) 93 (80) 26 (35) 26 (33) 42 (34) 2004 421 (412) 421 (409) 465 (418) 767 (603) 452 (440) 381 (446) 404 (377) 274 (296) 483 (461) 2020 360 (338) 360 (386) 410 (345) 685 (506) 394 (359) 338 (373) 314 (279) 211 (215) 456 (406) 2004 105 (81) 105 (80) 115 (68) 126 (101) 101 (83) 106 (84) 118 (73) 78 (64) 176 (96) 2020 85 (69) 85 (54) 100 (55) 111 (70) 87 (68) 90 (73) 78 (56) 58 (56) 163 (98) 2004 44 (54) 44 (54) 39 (44) 98 (63) 31 (30) 34 (53) 44 (55) 41 (43) 42 (63) 2020 42 (50) 42 (65) 41 (40) 87 (46) 29 (27) 32 (50) 38 (49) 33 (31) 42 (58) 2004 21 (20) 21 (15) 22 (38) 07 (24) 44 (18) 90 (18) 05 (24) 04 (15) 13 (19) 2020 18 (21) 18 (18) 24 (39) 06 (35) 48 (20) 114 (22) 04 (19) 03 (14) 16 (19) 2004 117 (176) 117 (188) 143 (125) 120 (164) 39 (107) 65 (176) 148 (167) 130 (166) 138 (241) 2020 127 (192) 127 (193) 155 (144) 152 (229) 43 (103) 77 (203) 126 (179) 140 (163) 172 (262) 2004 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 2020 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000) 1000 (1000)
,,,,,,,, EU,, IT,,, IT,,,,, IT,, 6 2
, < -1>, 65 UN, 2005 74% 2020 94%, 2050 161%, 2020, 2050 6) < -1> 2005, 65 34% 2020, 6) 65 7%, 14% 2005 281 2020 316, 2050 378 63
: (%), 2005 2020 2050 65 65 65 ( ) ( ) ( ) (%) (%) (%) 74 281 94 316 161 378 153 55 386 256 190 75 420 295 259 146 455 366 34 64 159 61 124 100 189 277 390 259 363 323 39 89 191 87 161 134 209 322 431 307 380 354 67 175 276 184 211 193 274 399 471 399 415 405 94 197 123 160 188 76 53 351 429 361 390 421 326 243 156 281 158 188 221 119 70 433 480 376 412 469 379 287 345 359 206 232 284 236 148 539 523 411 429 474 448 387 : UN(2004), World Population Prospects : 65,, 7) 2005 7) 2 1950 64
4,846, 94% 153%, 2000 7% 18 2018 14%, 20% 8 2026 114, 40, 24 12 < III-2> 2020, 2050, (21 ),, 21 30 : 2005 2010 2020 2050 0~14 15~24 25~49 50~64 9,518 (020) 34,577 (071) 6,918 20,576 7,083 8,552 (017) 35,740 (072) 6,537 20,285 8,918 7,034 (014) 35,950 (071) 5,879 18,253 11,818 4,650 (010) 24,416 (055) 3,769 11,473 9,174 65 4,366 (009) 5,302 (011) 7,667 (015) 15,270 (034) 48,461 (100) 49,594 (100) 50,651 (100) 44,336 (100) : 65
, 15 8), 2003 10 2005,,,,, 50, 18 12 1980 13, 1945 8) (2005), 424 383 2020 6 6
7% 60, 7,700,,,,,,,,,,, BT, NT, IT, BT, NT,,, < III-3> 8 19 67
8 19 /,,,,,,,,,, : (2005), 1980,,,, 9),, 9) 2010 1,,, 1990 50 3/4, 77%, 40% 10) (2005),, p15 68
R&D, 2020 2000 1 7,500, 60% 1/3, 1990, 230,,,,, OECD 20 3D 69
,,,,, 1993, 2003 1 36 3,000 28 7,000 2004, 2004 92 2005 7 3 3,766 58%, 20,,,,,, 70
45 3 5 0 30 246 258 15 1 2 2 130 91 73 90 69 141 106 62 58 188 47 52 0 ( ) : Shell(2005), Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 15~64, 2005 3,458, 2020 3,595 2050 2,442 < III-2> 25~49 2005 595% 2020 507% 2050 470% OECD, 2000~2020 0 79 % O E C D( 0 04 %) 71
, 2020 ~ 2050 ( 0 91 %) 2000, 2020~2050 0 92 %,,, (2005 ),, 433% (231%), (157%), (137%), 21 11) 11) 20 (OECD 1998),, 7 2
, 12),,,,,,,, 2020 12) (EU) 55~64 2001 2010 55 50% 73
13), IT, BT, NT,, 2020 1 GDP,, 2020 14) 2020,, 1 GDP 2020 13) 2 (2005) 14) (2003),, (I), 74
,, 2030 2050 0,,, OECD, OECD,, GDP 2004 4 95 % 2020 9 3 %, 2050 23 4 %, 2024 2050 GDP 13 9 % 15 ) 75
, 16 ) 2020 2004 (120 ) 042% 5,005, 1994 011%, 50%, 40%,, 15) (2004),, 16) (2005), (II) 17) (2005) 7 6
M&A 18), 1970,, 19),,,,,,, 18) IT IT IT, 19) Lazear, 77
, 1980 1997,, 20),,,,, 1980 M&A,, (job security), (employment security) 20) 50~54 25~29 240% 205% 7 8
( ), 21), 2002,, 22),,,,, 21),,, 2005 22) Hartmut Buck, p152 79
, 3D (skill shortage), 50,,,,,, 23), 10, 23) (2005), 35 807% 8 0
, 45 55 10 24), 25) 2020 2020, 20~64, 2020, 2020, 24) 2003 500 45 194%, 241% 500 55 2003 17%, 2~3% (2003),, 25) 1 81
2020, 25~49 50~64 2005 146% 2020 233%,,,, 15,,, BT NT BT IT 21,, 15 BT, 2020,,, 2020 8 2
, 2020 83
,,,,, 85
,,, 19, 2020 BRICs,,, 1, 1 2,,,,,,,,,, 8 6
,,, OECD, UN,,,,,, IT, BT, 2020 OECD 1970,,,,,,, (eco-efficiency) OECD 20 87
, 2020,,, 2005 20% 2020 33% 26),,,,, GMO, LMO, 2020, 1980 50% 1, 2020 26) OECD (2003), 8 8
1992, 2020 I (Annex I, 1 2008~2012 ), I,, 2020, 2020,, (Biodiversity),,, 2020, (, BT ), 89
2020, 2,, 2020 GMOs(Genetically Modified Organisms, ),,, (Bio Safety Protocol),,,, OECD GDP,,, < -1> OECD 2020 ( ), ( ), ( ),, 2020,, 9 0
(,,, ) / : OECD, Environmental Compedium 2001-2004, 2020, 1970 1, 2,, 91
GDP,, 2020,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 9 2
2020,,,,,,,,,, OECD 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 : OECD(2005), World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030 : 2002-2004, Mtoe=million tons of oil equivalent( ) 93
, 2020 2002 24, OPEC OPEC 40% 2010 46%, 2020 54% OPEC, OPEC, 2020 1 90%,,,,,, 1, OECD 2030,, 2005~2030 85% OECD 12%, 3%,, 9 4
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 (%) 59% 85% 2,000 31% 1,000 0 10% 1971~2002 3% 12% 2002~2030 OECD : OECD, World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2005, 2, (electrification), 1 2 EIA(, Energy Information Agency) 2025,, 95
2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 (Gigawatts) (2002~2025) < > 1,207 1,851 2,071 2,304 2,560 33 987 1,151 1,232 1,322 1,403 15 361 390 401 411 422 07 763 927 980 1,036 1,110 16 3,318 4,319 4,684 5,073 5,495 22 < > 1,207 1,849 2,041 2,254 2,464 32 987 1,153 1,232 1,320 1,397 15 361 395 449 498 570 20 763 928 970 1,020 1,078 15 3,318 4,326 4,692 5,092 5,509 22 < > 1,207 1,865 2,087 2,342 2,626 34 987 1,160 1,245 1,339 1,426 16 361 360 357 340 297-08 763 934 987 1,050 1,127 17 3,318 4,318 4,677 5,071 5,476 22 : Derived from Energy Information Administration(EIA, 2002), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site wwweiadoegov/iea/ Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets(2005) 22%, 07%, 2025 32 34% 15% 15 17% 9 6
,, 08%, 20%, (phase-out policies),, 2020,,,, 2020 2 IEA( ), OPEC 97
, 52 / 2020 50%, EIA, 202535 / (2003 US$ ) IEA 202548 /, 202521 / 2004, 2005 OPEC, OPEC OPEC 70 60 (2003 ) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1995 2004 2015 2025 : Energy Information Administration(EIA), Annual Energy Review 2003, DOE/EIA-0384(2003)(Washington, DC, September 2004), web site wwweiadoegov/emeu/aer/ Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005) 9 8
, 2005 2010 2010 07% OPEC,, 2020 (M&A),, (electrification),, 99
, 2020,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1, 2 2020 ( ), 2 (2013 2017) 1 0 0
IT, BT 2020 1995 33% 1995 776MW( ) 2002 562MW 8 2511MW, 3 1351MW, 1206MW 4 301MW (IEA), 1980 h 5 4 2MW 5MW 88, 86MW 1997 1,, : IEA(2003), Renewables Information (%) 14 104 70 43 26 30 : 2001, 2002, 19% 101
, 2001 5,, 5 17 2003, EU 1998,,, 2005~2010 2010~2020, 2020~2030, New Earth 21, 1 0 2
We-Net Program(1993 2020), 2025 10%,,,,,,, (common welfare) 103
, NGO, R&D 2020,,, (NIMBY),, WEEE, RoHS WEEE(Waste of Electronic and Electrical Equipment) EU, RoHS(Restriction of the Use of Certain Hazardous Substances in Electric and Electronic Equipment), 1 0 4
,,, 2020 (Design for Environment: DfE),, Zero Emission, (cleane technology),, (End-of-Pipe),,,,,, SOC,, 105
, 2020,, 3, OECD 21,, 1993 1995 4 (Bridge to Sustainable Future) (National Science and Technology Council: NSTC) 21,, 1997 13 83% 2003 124 2020 2003 30 50%, 30 40%, GDP 20 25% VISION 21 1997 1 ( S o l a r - r o o f ) 2010 3 00 ( p h o t o v o l t a i c ) 351 T / C 1 0 6
(Growth and Planning Approach), 3 (ET, IT, BT),, New Sunshine (1993 2020), 600, 1 5,500,,,,, (Eco-energy City) R&D,,, (1996 6% 2010 12%) CO2 (2010 1990 15%) EU ALTENER, SAVE ALTENER II Program 2010 EU 6% 12%,,,,, 5 SAVE R&D, JOULE-THERMIE, R&D EUREKA,,, R&D, 107
,, 2020 21 (China Trans-Century Green Project Plan),,,, 2003 37 GDP 07%, 15% GNP 2, 10 5 (2001 2005) 2010, 20 12 16%,, ISO 14000,,, 1 0 8
,, EBI(Environmental Business International, 2005), 1992, 1990 3~4% 2005 6,945, 2010 8,853 1999 2005 58%, 2005 2010 50%, 2020 40%, (2004), 2001 8 5,910 2006 117% 2006 14 9,070 8% 2011 21 9,030, 69% 2020 39 8,000, 2020 109
60 61~70 71~80 81~90 91~100 21 209 390 326 53 768 76 182 394 265 82 759 29 279 294 382 15 757 00 05 58 322 614 763 : (2005) 27 ) 2020 (=100) 763, IT, BT,,,,, 27) 1( ) 5( ) 19 1 1 0
,, 2020,,, 111
2000 (deregulation), (liberalization), (integration) (institutional) 113
(deposit-taking institutions), (alignment),, 2020 (change drivers),,,, 1 1 4
,, (multi-polarization),,,,,, (regional economic zone), 115
21 1970, 2 3 (retirement) (asset protection) (mutual fund) (asset accumulation),,, 1 1 6
, (division of global risks) (securitization),,,, (private equity market) (non-standard), (risk stripping), (pooling) (stripping) 117
,,, (convergence), (outsourcing),,,, (asset stripping), (re-insurance) (technology infrastructure) 1 1 8
IT (inter-active),, (non-financial sector), (horizontal integration), TV,,,,, 119
, 10~20, BIS, IOSCO, IIA, IMF, ECB, 1 2 0
,, (risk-sharing) 2020,, (flight to 121
( ) 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 5657 5383 4717 3495 3574 3108 3554 4126 200 3 2502 2559 2587 1880 137 8 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 : safe asset), (asset-backed securities), MMF,, 1 2 2
,,,, 123
: BIS 1997-704 -39 181 1998-823 -125 160 1999 446 1083-60 217 2000 320 1053-28 221 2001 126 1081 36 263 2002 113 1052 34 297 2003 137 1040 07 319 2004 101 1129 64 391 20056 90 1187 42 439 :, 2020 (non-bank market),, 1 2 4
(loss sharing) (fiduciary duty), (private contractual relationship), (crisis management) 125
,, 20~30 40~50, 20~30,,, 1 2 6
,,,,,,,,,, 127
, (aggregate risk),,,,,, 15,, 1 2 8
,,, 129
( 3 ) 28 ), 29 ),, 28) Alvin Toeffler(1980) 29) Daniel Bell(1973) 131
(knowledge-based economy),,, (OECD, 1996b, 1999a, 1999b) (Ceraroni, 2003),, 30), 31) 30) (increasing return), (Stigler, 1958), (Arthur, 1996) (up-front cost), (positive feedback effect), (switching cost) 31) 7 1 3 2
,,,,, 2002 (PL), 32) 33) 32) 33) (Punitive Damage), 133
(SRI : socially responsible investment),,, SRI,,, 34) 1991, (EOA: Ethics Officer Association) 2002 (ISO), 1977 OECD OECD 1997 1999OECD (TI: Transparency International), 34) (2004) 1 3 4
UN (ethic round),,, ( ) 35) (Cemex),, 60% 36) 24 35) O Dell & Grayson, Jr(1998) 36) (2003) 135
ABB,,, 1,300 5 4,000,,,, 37) 38),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 37) Nonaka & Takeuchi(1995) 38) Coleman, Stetar & Costa(2004) 1 3 6
, 39), 40),, 1960 (two factor theory of motivation) 41) (hygienes) (motivators),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 42), 39) Forbes & Domm(2004) 40) Amabile(1997) 41) Herzberg(1968) 137
43), 177 44),,, ( ) 42) Amabile(1988) 43) Forbes & Domm(2004) 44) Amabile, Hadley & Kramer(2002) 1 3 8
(Intellectual Asset Tech Center) 45 ),, 46),, 45) Consortium Benchmarking Study(1996) 46) (2002) 139
,,,, (Code of Conduct), (Compliance Check System), (Consensus by Education) 3C (CSR: Corporate Social Responsibility) (< - 1> ),,, UNCTAD CSR EU CSR OECD CR 47) ILO CSR ISO SR 48) : (2005) 47) OECD (social) 48) ISO (Corporate) 1 4 0
2000 (Enron) (World Com) (EOA) - (Sabanes-Oxley) 2002 7,, CEO CFO, (SEC),,, EU,,,, 2001 7 CSR framework (Promoting a European Framework for 141
Corporate Social Responsibility, Green Paper) EU 2004 10 EU, 49) CSR 2002 CSR CSR, 2004 4 CSR CSR 50) (knowledge jungle) (KMS: knowledge management systems)??, 49) (2005) 50) (2005) 1 4 2
, (tacit knowledge),,,, Desouza & Awazu(2005), (segmentation capability),,,,,,,,,,,,, (knowledge artifacts),, 143
, (Barney, 1991) (rare), (heterogeneous), (immobile), (non-substitutable), (uniqueness),, (destruction capability) (explicit knowledge artifacts), 1 4 4
, (knowledge repository),,,,, (CKO : Chief Knowledge Officer) CEO(Chief Executive Officer) CFO(Chief Financial Officer) 145
,,,,,,,,, 2020, 1 4 6
: % R&D 34 144 359 69 20 374 : KIET (2005) (< -2>) IMF,,,,, (< -3> < -4> ) 147
: : (2005) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 72 76 74 75 74 2,204 1,644 4,119 4,455 5,310 306 216 557 592 718 922 293 1573 67 208 :, 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 92,638 (989) 117,803 (1,183) 107,785 (1,128) 92,573 (662) 138,228 (1,160) 62,653 (1,050) 92,936 (1,034) 71,993 (987) 151,742 (4,395) : (2005) : ( ),,,,, 1 4 8
(blue ocean strategy) 51) (Christensen, 1997), 52) 51) (2005) 52), 149
15 IT IT IT 2003 OECD OECD IT, IT 1996 2001 1%, IT IT, 15, 2020 151
Percentage points 100 080 1990~1995 1996~2001 060 040 020 0 : OECD(2003), ICT and Economic Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries, Industries and Firms,, IT (Prosumer), (navigator) 1 5 2
Supply-side Demand-side (complexation of technologies) (simplification of interface) 18 2 (Moor s Law), (surplus complexity) 153
( H u a n g s Law) 53) ( M o o r s Law),,, H D D(Hard Disc Drive, PC ) 3 5 2 5 0 85 H D D MP3 ( 2005 ) 1 H D D HDD 2005 1 6 13 % 2006 1714%, 2007 25 %, 2002 600 mah 2 2, 2006 1,500 mah 54) (CPU),, (De-Synchronization), (digital divide) 53), 18 1 2 54) (2004) 1 5 4
(Multiple Customer Bonding), (One-Stop Service) (All-in-One) TPS(Total Service Provider) TSP (HFC) ( ), ( ), ( ) TSP,,,,,,, 155
,, e (ambient intelligence) (business intelligence),, (semantic web),,,,,,,, 1 5 6
SoC (System-on-Chip) (Embedded Software) (Microprocessor),,, IT (< VII-1> ) 5 (Well-being) 157
32,570,000 72%( 5 ) 11,972,087 25%( 1 ) PC 26,200,000 54% 37,683,417 78% IPv6 4,129 4,,,,,,,,,, 1 5 8
1990, (MoD: Music on Demand), (VoD) PC,,,, (Low Temperature Poly Silicon), (TFT-LCD) TFT-LCD 1990 M D(Toshiba Matsushita Display) S T - L C D( S o n y - 159
Toyota LCD) 2 TFT LCD C R M(Customer Relationship Management) (One-to-One Marketing) (Pull),,,,,,,, IPv6 1 6 0
,,,, 2,, 50, PC,,,, RFID, (GPS), IT,,, 161
,, User Identity module,,, ( ) ( ) - - IT -,, -, (e-gov vs u-gov) (e-biz vs u-biz) - One-Stop, Seamless - - - - - - ( ) - (e-life vs u-life) - - : (2004) 1 6 2
, IT IT, IT (Ubiquitous), (Computing), (Networking), (Censoring), IT,,, IT,,,,,,, 163
DMB Wibro Netwofk IT, 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2014 2015 2019 2020 2025 u : (2005),,,, 55) 2010 2015 56), (weightless economy) (, ) 55) (2004) 56) (2005) 1 6 4
IT,,,, (mismatch),, (frictionless economy) (ubiquitous commerce) 165
e P D A, T V t P C, PC P DA TV 2010 T V (305%) (306%) 10,, (digital divide),,, 1 6 6
, /,, 10 57), e- u- u-payment, u-,, u-biz, u-promotion, u- 6 58), u- u- 57) (2005) 58) (2005) 167
u- u-office u-payment u-biz u-promotion 3090% 2670% 1950% 1070% 730% 460% : (2005),,, TV, PDA u-payment u-it u-biz u-promotion,,,, 1 CRM(Customer Relationship Management) < VII-3> (KISTEP) 10, 1 6 8
KIET KISTEP 10,,, (DMB), TV,,,,,, Post-PC, PDA, Wearable Computer 4G, IT, /,, one-stop, /,,,,, (,, ), DNA,,,,,, embedded SW,,,,,,,, / SoC,, e-car, flexible, Rollable LED, EL, LCD, 2,,, e-paper,, 2,, LED, 3D,, Flexible Display, EL :,, KIET, KISTEP 169
20,, 21,, (Biotechnology) (Conventional Biotechnology),, (New Biotechnology) 171
(Bioindustry, Biotechnology Industry), (<-1> ),,, 1 7 2
,,,,,,,,,, 2020, 2020,,, (IT, NT, ET) ( ), Informatics,, 173
,,,,, 60%, 1g 67,, / DNA S/W S/W /,, LMOs, DNA 1 7 4
,,,,,,,,,, IT, NT (McKinsey & Company), 2010 10~20%, 2020 25~35%, 20% 10% 2000 2004 2010 2020 : EuropaBio(2005), White Biotechnology: Gateway to a More Sustainable Future : ; ; ; 175
(enzymes), (new bio-polymers),,,,, 21,, 1 7 6
,,,, (Biosafety Protocol) (LMOs: ), 2020,,,,,,,, 2020, 59), 5 9 ) The future of biosciences: four scenarios for 2020 and beyond(2005), The Wharton School 177
, 2000 540 15% 2008 1,250, 2013 2,100 1,300 350,,,,, 60% 1 7 8
,,,,,,,,, 2000 60 30~50 2 70%, 2025,,, 2000 25, 2005 47, 2010 105, 3~5 179
1990 2005 18~19%,, 7,,,,, 15% 2000 150, 2005 400 (OECD) 1 7,000 (Industrial Biotechnology, White biotechnology), 1997 14 5,000, 2000 20 2010 50 65%,, 10% 1 8 0
,,, EU,,,,, 2005,, 2015,,,,,,,,,, 181
,,, (science-based industry) (NSF) R&D (2002 49%) 2002 R&D 453 222 Life Sciences, 1995~2001, 2001 1,457, 342,,, 20~30%, 1 8 2
, (IPO: Initial Public Offering),, M&A NASDAQ M&A,,, (OSTP) (USDA), (EPA), (FDA), (BSCC: Biotechnology Science Coordinating Committee),,, 183
,,,,, 1990~2001 SCI 38~42% 6~11%,, 2, 1986~2000 6 12,790 2,069, 732 1 8 4
,,,, orphan drug EU,,, 4,400 5 8,800 2002 7,, 12 50 200,,,, 5 (Japan Bioindustry Association), 2003 2,533, 4,400 185
(SNP),, 2003,,,,, (nanomedicine), (toxicogenomics), 2003 (leading projects) (tailor-made medicine), (regenerative medicine),,, 2003,,,, 2002 7, 12 2010 1 8 6
,,,,, 21,, 3,,,,,,,, (IT), (NT), Biotool, (Bioinformatics),, (SNP),, (SNP),,, (EU) IT (Life Sciences & Biotechnology), 2000 Lisbon e- Europe EU 2002 129, 1,800, 82,000 EU 2005 1,000 ( 118 ), 2010 187
20,000 ( 2,362 ) OECD Ernst & Young, EU 2001, (LMO),, 2001 9 (EC), 2002 1 (Life Sciences & Biotechnology A Strategy for Europe) EU,,, 4 2010 30 (Action Plan),,,,,,,,, EU 1 8 8
, (Biosafety Protocol),,, 2010 (PPP: Purchasing Power Parity) 2002, ( : OECD) EC,,,, ENGL(the European Network of GMO Laboratories) (GMO/LMO),,,,,,, 189
( P R O ),, B i o - R e g i o n(munich, Rhine/Neckar, Rhineland),,,,, (Max Planck Institutes),,,, 2003 60) 2 791 2002 1 8,934 98% 2003 ( ) 2 5,923 2002 2 3,427 107% 60), ( + ) 1 9 0
, (45%) (41%), (4%),, / (2%), / (2%), 2003, 61) 2003 (Bioindustry) (BT: Biotechnology), 10 20% post-genome, (IT), 61),, 191
,, (NIS: National Innovation System) 6T, (RIS: Regional Innovation System), (1994 2007 ) 3 ( 2002 2 007 ) 21C (2001 12, ), 2002 65 1,620 2020,,,, 1 9 2
,,,,,,,,, 20,,,,,,,, HGP Post Genome 193
Trend HGP Post Genome Bio-MEMS,, IT Bio IT,, (Bioinformatics) Chip,, (Bioelectronics) : KDAC( ),, IT, R & D, Network 1 9 4
IT, BT BT,,, R&D : (2005),,,,,,, 195
60 61~70 71~80 81~90 91~100 00 32 254 492 222 840 23 82 310 462 123 808 29 14 214 514 229 840 14 49 270 484 184 827 : (2005), 2020, 2020 ( = 100 ) 8 2 7 84, 81 ~ 90 18 4 % 9 1 ~ 100, 5 ( 1 5 9 ), 1 9 6
(IT), (NT) (BT) (synergistic combination) 3,, ( ) 21 (megatrend), (, ) (converging technologies) 1 9 7
,, IT, BT, (NT: Nano- Technology) (10-9 m), NT, NT,,, (breakthrough technology) (generic technology) (enabling technology), NT NT, NT (,, ),, Richard M Feynman 1959 (Caltech), (top-down method), 1 9 8
(01 10nm ), (bottom-up method) nanotechnology 1974 ( ) 1980 Eric Drexler(1986), ( ),,, ( = NSF) Roco & Bainbridge(2002) BT NT IT, NBIC NBIC (CS; cognitive science), ( : intelligence;,, ),, (the science of mind),,,, 1980 1990, (neural net),, 1990,, 1 9 9
INT (IT+NT) IBT (IT+BT) NBT (NT+BT) INBT (IT+NT+BT) - Nano-computer - Nano-motor ( ) - Nano-sensor - Bioinformatics - Bioelectronics - Human Interface - Biocomputer - Biosensor - Biochips - Telemedicine - Nano-biosensor - Nano-biology - Nano-medicine - Healthcare - DDR( ) - Bio-photodiode - Bio-EL Device - Visual Prosthesis - - - Ubiquitous Healthcare System : (2002 10); (2003) : IT (SW) (HW, ),, IT, BT NT < -1>,,, 2 0 0
, NSF( ) OECD NT NSF Roco & Bainbridge(2002), (unity in nature) (holistic) 62),, OECD(2004),,, BT, IT, NT Roco & Bainbridge Wallace(2002) ( ), NT, BT IT 62) (wholism) (reductionism; ) 2 0 1
INFO BIO COGN NANO : Bruland, K, et al(2004) : COGN (CS), (IT), (CS), BT, NT, Bit, Neuron, Gene, Atom ( < -1> ) ( I T) ( N T) ( B T) ( C S 200 ( ),, 19 20 (, ), 63) 63) Fordism, Taylorism 2 0 2
1960 20, (,, ), (FMS), 1990 (HGP) 20,, INT IBT, 14 16 64),, (Leonardo da Vinci, 1452 1519),,,,,,, 64), Roco & Bainbridge(2002) 2 0 3
UN (2005),?,,,,,, 2010 2020 (wealth), 2015 72, 2030 85, () Rees (1995), 2,,,,,,,, 2 0 4
,, NNI(National Nanotechnology Initiative) NSF( ) Roco & Bainbridge(2002),, 1 ( ), 2 (ICT) 3, RAND Anton (2001),, Roco & Bainbridge( 2002 ), Meyer & Davis(2003),,,,,, (<-2> ) Meyer & Davis, 1970 Palo Alto Xerox 2 0 5
(macro) (NIS) / (micro) (RIS) (multidisciplinary) (nano) (GIS) : Anton, P S, Silberglitt, R & Schneider, J(2001) (PARC) IT, CPU 2,200 (OS),,,, (GUI), (bandwidth) 1970 It s Alive Q4 ( ) Q3 ( ) Q2 ( ) Q1 ( ) 1750 1850 1950 2050 : Meyer, C & Davis, S(2003) 2 0 6
,, 21 (lingua franca), Xerox PARC Bell ( ), 150 ( 1 ),, Maxygen, Diversa Nanosys BT, (gene shuffling), (HTS: High-Throughput Screening) 65) MEMS 1971 PARC, Bell Lab (IT), (molecular technologies) BT NT,,, (NT ), (IT) (BT),, Ahlqvist(2005), BC 6000 6,000 7,000, 1700 250 65),, BT ( ) NT, IT 2 0 7
GDP (50 ) (6,000~7,000 ) (250 ) (? ) (25 ) 6000B 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2025 2050 : Ahlqvist, T(2005), ( 50 ) ( 25 ) (? ) ( ) 2020 2025 (<-3> ), ( ) ( ),,, ( )(1992),, (, ), IT, 2 0 8
MIT Technology Review (GWU),, Mannermaa(2003),,,,, Wonglimpiyarat(2005) Freeman & Soete(1997) 1990 IT 5, 21 NT 6, Kuhn, NT (paradigm shift), (mono-disciplinary science) ( ), Doorn (2005) 20 (1950 ) (1970 ) (1980 ), (1990 ) NBIC (2000 ), Ahlqvist NBIC 2 0 9
,, S (logistic curve), 66) (fractal) S,, IT, NT, BT,,,, 10 Roco & Bainbridge(2002), (golden age) 66) 2 1 0
Roco,,, ( ; unification) 20 20 NBIC 20, -, -,, -, -, -,, (2005), 2020 5 IT BT NT ( 2,174 223 ), (187 ) (128 ) 2 1 1
(92 ) 630 1,, 2020 ( )?, (428 ) 689%, 168%,, 914%, 861%, 830%,,,,,,, IT IT,,,, 2 1 2
BT BT,,, NT NT,,,, 1990 IT NT NASDAQ NT,,,,,, 2 1 3
2000,,, NT (NIT NBT NBIT ) NT,,, NT, IT 67 IT BT NT ),, NT Clinton 2000 NNI(National Nanotech- nology Initiative, 67) NT 2 1 4
) (multi disciplinary) NNI (NSF) Roco Bainbridge NNI, NT, R&D, 1990, 1990 NASA NT NT 1996 11, 1998 9, (IWGN) 68) OSTP 69) (NSTC) (CT) 70) I W G N NT,, ( H P ) R S William, U C P a u l Alivisato N N I ( N S F ) M C Roco IWGN NT NT, IWGN 1999 68) Interagency Working Group on Nanotechnology( NT ) 69) White House Office of Science and Technology Policy( ) 70) Committee of Technology 2 1 5
, NT NNI OSTP, (PCAST) 71), 2000 2, NNI: 2001, NNI IWGN NNI R&D, NSTC (NSET) 72) NSET NNI 6 OSTP, CT (Roco ) 73) (NEC) 74) NNI NSET R&D,, NNI (GPRA) 75), NNI 71) President s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology 72) Subcommittee on Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology 73), NSF NT (GOALI) 74) National Economic Council 75) Government Performance and Result Act 1993 2 1 6
, NSET NNI R&D,, NSET, (NNCO) 76) NNCO, NSET,,, (NSF) (DOD) (DOE), 3, NNI (2004 ) (Grand Challenge) 65%, NT ( 70% ) NT,,, NT IT, BT,,, 20 76) National Nanotechnology Coordination Office 2 1 7
108 21 NT (21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act)(S 189) 2003 12 3, Bush, 2005 2008 37 77) ( 4 3,000 ) 5, 2008 2, NT NT IT( ) BT, R&D, NT,,, 2000 NNI EU EU NT,, EU, EU (EC: Eupean Commission) 2003 12 2004 7 77) NSF, DOE, NASA, NIST & EPA 2 1 8
, (NSF) (2002) NBIC, (CTEKS) 78) EC,,, CTEKS, CTEKS, IT BT NT 79) (enabling technologies), EC,, (, ) (), NSF,,, NSF, EU 16 CTEKS, (, ), CTEKS (, ), CTEKS (,, ) 10 (EU), 78) Converging Technologies for the European Knowledge Society 79) (technology-enabling scientific knowledge) 2 1 9
,, EU NT, ( ), EU, EU, NT, R&D, 1990 NT, NT R&D (BT, ) NT (, EU, ), 1997 1999 EU 32% 1 24%, 12% 80) R&D ( ) EU 36%, 42% NT R&D ( ), EU NT R&D 80) European Commission(2003) 2 2 0
20036 FP(the Sixth Framework Programme) 3 5,000 ( 4,719 ) EC, NT EU 1/3 EU 2001 54 NT, 49, 49 1,350 1 28 NBT( ) NBT EU NT IT (NIT),,, (EU) NT FP6, EU (EC) FP6 2002 2006 EU(EC), EU 175 ( 24 5,000 ) BT, IT, NT, (ST),, (initiative) EU FP R&D, FP4 FP5 NT, FP6 NT EU 2 2 1
, ( ) ( C S T P) 2001 9, ( )2 (2001 2005 ) NT, IT, BT, ET, 4 4 (needs) 21,,,, 4 NT 2001600 2002 825, 2004 169% 944, 2005 244% 1,174 2 2 4,000 2004 NT NT 116 6,000 58% R&D 2 2 2
, 6 7 (, ) R&D ( ) (sectionalism), ( ) R&D, 2002 6 25 2002 6, 30 : 21, 12 5, ( ), ( ) 4, ( ) 2002 4 1990 10,, (METI) (Focus) 21 4, 21 (R&D) 2 2 3
,,,, IT BT ET NT 81), 2004 (1,241 7,000 ) 21 52%,, NT MEMS 82) 21 IT,,, 1974 ( ) NT 1991 NEC( ) ( ) (CNT), NT 40 1980 ERATO (Exploratory Research for 81) ( ) ( ) 2004 9 14 82) Micro Electro Mechanical Systems( ) 2 2 4
Advanced Technology) NT (NIT), NT 1980 1990, NT, 1992 2001, (Atom Technology Project) ( ) NEDO NT, NT, CEO,, ( 2,174 ), (=100) 69 80 (< -3> ) 2005 12, 19 2006 INT IBT NBT INBT 803 750 709 687 ( ) 416 416 417 420 : KIET (2005) 2 2 5
NT, 2006 NT,, 2001 NT, ` 2 (2006~2015 ) 2015 3 NT 2015 1 2,000,, (NBT),, 2 NT 2014 30, 2015 1 (1,000 ) NT 20% (2004),, IT, NT, BT, 2003 5%,,, (, INT), NBT 10 2 2 6
, IT ( INT ) BT, NT,,,,,,,,,,, 2 2 7
, NT,,,,,, 83 T ),,,,, 83) 1 I,, 2 2 8
, IT-driven, NBT, 2 2 9
,,,,,,,,, 231
,,,,,,, 2020 (,, ) ( ), 472%, 408%, 5 34 : % 00 06 06 100 83 72 450 381 362 429 486 551 21 42 14 34 35 35 02 89 408 472 28 34 : (2005) : 5 ( 1, 3, 5 ) 2 3 2
, 2,, 2 1980, 1980,,,,, 233
,,,,,, (spin-off) (spin-on),,,, (Dual-Use Paradigm), 2 3 4
Military-Commercial Relation SBIR(82) R & D DUS&T(1998),,, TRP (1992),,, /, AI,,, SW, Spin-in S&T 1970 1980 1990 2000 : (2005),,, (spin-off) 1980, 1990,, 21, R&D 235
60% R&D, 9 11,, EU,,,, IT, BT, NT 10,, 2 3 6
GPS GPS 17 3 4,000 18, GPS 1,300 3, GPS millimeter micro MIMIC (Microwave Monolithic Integrated Circuit) F-22 8,000 F-22 2,000 MIMIC-based transmit-receiver F-22 1,600 2,000, 50%, Delco 1,895 (ASM-1) 237
ECM( ) ECCM( ) F-15J ECM ALQ-9,, 05 GPS 2 3 8
,,,,,,,,, / C 4 I(Command, Control, Communication, Computer, Intelligence),,,, 3 5,, C4ISR(Command, Control, Communication, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance),,,,,,,, 239
,,,,,,,,,,,,, PUSH PULL,,, C 4 I S R,, /, 2 4 0
, 21,,,,, C3I, C3I,,,, ( ),,, New VLF LF,,, - /, - -, IR, SAR - : - - - ( ) 241
( ), VSTOL - - (,, ) - (, ), -, - (,, ) - (C3I ), (,,,, ),,,, decoy, decoys, buoys -,, : - :,, - :,,, - :, IR, - : -,, -,, - :, - - - (SCAF): - UCAV - CSAR/JPR:, tilt rotor,, MEMS ( ) 2 4 2
C3I - - - - - UAV - ( ) -, - UAV,, -, - - EHF - (1Gb/s) -, -, : DGA(2005), The 30 Year Prospective Plan :,, : 1) SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar), 2) VSTOL(Vertical Short Take-Off and Landing), 3) SCAF(Self Cleaning Air Filter) 4) UCAF(Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle), 5) MEMS(Micro Electro mechanical Systems) 6) CSAR(Combat Search and Rescue), 7) JPR(Job Performance Requirement),, 1990 1995 10, 1997 1998 4,,, 1 (1999~2003) 243
2005,,, 55~70%,, 20 50,,,, (PGM),, 2015 90%, 2025 45% 2015 10%,, 2 4 4
, ADD(Agency for Defense Development),,, 2020 (=100), 641 652, : % 30 31~50 51~70 71~90 91~100 21 30 15 112 169 136 471 458 485 369 313 333 27 30 30 652 627 644 24 138 468 341 29 641 : (2005) 245
644, 468% 51~70, 91 29%, (Spin-on), 2020, 2020,,,,,,,,,, 2 4 6
, 2020,,, 5 (C4I), (ISR: Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) (PGM: Precision Guided Missiles) (C4ISR + PGM),, - -,, MEMS -, / -, /, /, -, - / C4I - - / -, -,, -, - 247
, 2020,, 50~70%,,,, (SMART:, ),, 2 4 8
B 767 A 380 / A 350 B 787 Wing/Empennage (ETE Panel, Fairing) (25~31%) 50% (,, ) : (2005),,,,, 249
,, (BUS),,,,,,,,, 2 5 0
,, EADS KAI T-50, 2020,,, (2020 ), 3 (,, ) 2 (, ) 5 3, 3,,, 251
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 5 2
, 2000 T-50, (Sub System) 2000T-50 12 10,, KT-1 T-50,,,,, 253
,,,,,, 100kg 4, 500kg 1 2, (SAR), 2020 2007 100kg KSLV-1 10 2015 15 KSLV-2 2007 9 2 5 4
: % 30 31~50 51~70 71~90 91~100 32 42 00 171 235 167 476 392 485 305 319 348 16 12 00 620 604 636 31 196 444 317 12 616 : (KIET) (2005),,,, 2020 (=100) 616 620, 636, 444% 51~70, 91 12% 255
,, ( 77% ), ( 3, ( ),,, 21 2004 12 ( ),, 16 5,000, 25 ~30 2003 100 4 7,000, 2 5 6
,,,,,,,, (,, ), 257
EEZ ( ), (, ) 2020 13 8,000, 25% 40% 1 1950 3,247, 1995 1,472 2025 1,258 UN,,,, 21,,, (EEZ, 2 5 8
), 4, ( ), 1968,,,,,,,, 1 1,542, 3,153 EEZ,,,,,,,,,,,,, 259
,,,,,,,, EEZ,, 1999 (Turning to the Sea : America s Ocean Future),,,,, 2004 21 (An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century),,,, 7 2003 10, 2 6 0
,,,, AUV( ), EU 2003 ESF( )Navigating of the Future-,,,,,,,, 15, 199910 5 5 (EEZ, 10 7 5,000,, 2002, E U (24 kw) EU, : (2004), 261
,,, ) 2000 (Ocean Korea) 21,, 1, 6,,,,,,,,, ( 1 kw ),,,,, 2 6 2
: % 30 31~50 51~70 71~90 91~100 16 24 45 187 200 136 481 461 606 283 285 212 32 30 00 624 618 597 24 184 493 273 26 617 : (2005),,, 2020 (=100) 617 624, 597, 618 493% 51~70, 91 26%,, 2013,, 71 2004~2008 1 5,000, 2009 2013 2 1 6,000 2005 (MTRM),, 263
,,,, GLOBEC(Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics, ), GOOS(Global Ocean Observing System, ) 1~2, 2020,,, 2020,, 25,, 500 kw 2020 26 50%,, (Wing In Ground Effect Ship, ), 1 5,000,, 2 6 4
2004 7, TV LG,, 10 LG TV TV ( ) DVD, IT HD DVD,,, LG, HD DVD, NEC IT,, 265
IT 1 2 (2G: 2nd generation) 3G, W-CDMA SCDMA TD-SCDMA, CDMA2000 TD- TD- SCDMA, 3G, 1, 2 1999 80%, ISO(International Standard Organization) 2 6 6
IEC(International Electrical Commission) ( : specifications),,,, KS A3001,,,,, ( ),,,, (unsponsored standards) 84) (sponsored standards), 85) (ANSI: American National Standards Institute), 86) (de facto standard) (de jure standard),, 84) 85), 86) David & Greenstein(1990) 267
( ),,, WCDMA CDMA2000 3 TD-SCDMA,,,,, Beta VTR VHS VTR client PC Windows, 2 6 8
OS,, 87),, GSM SIM(Subscriber Identity Module) card GSM Window OS Window, Window Window,,, 88),, QWERTY, 87) 88) 269
89),,,,,, 90) 89), 2 7 0
(WIPO: World Intellectual Property Organization, WIPO) 2 8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 91) 92) 93),, 90) 91) ( ) 92),,,,,,,,,,, 93),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 271
,,,,,, CD,,,,, (<-1> ),,,,, 2 7 2
- -,,,, 273
, (TBT: Technical Barriers to Trade) 94), 80% 15%, 13 95) GATT( ) 7 Tokyo Round 9, 1995 WTO (TBT) WTO TBT,, TBT (International Standard) 94) (Standard), (Technical Regulation), (Certification Procedure), (Inspection System),, 95) (2002) 2 7 4
96) WTO TBT,,, (MRA) MRA,,, MRA (Test Reports), (Certificates), (Marks),,, EU MRA EU, EU, EU, EU,, 1998 2005 96), 275
(WIPO) ( U N E S C O ), ( U N C T A D ), W T O, WTO TRIPs(Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights) 1995 1 1 WTO TRIPs,,, (minimum standard),,,,,,,,, IT BT NT, 2 7 6
top-down ( < -2> ) ( ) ATM Forum FRF IETF MMCF TMF X/OPEN -,,, -, -, - IPR ( ) (ITU, ISO/IEC JTC1) (ETSI, CEN, ASTAP) (GSC/RAST) (TTA, T1, TTC, ARIB, INTAP ) ETSI, T1, TTC, TTa, TSACc, ACIF, ITU, JTC1, TIA, ARIB - - IPR - - : (2002) 277
,,,,,,,,, (ITU-T) ITU-T ITU-T IMT-2000 TV,,, 2 7 8
,,,, (< -3> ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ), IT, DNA TV,,,,, IMT-2000 : (2005) 279
, WIPO 1988 (New Development in Intellectual Property),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Artificial Intelligence) (Integrated Circuit) (element), (layout design), Maskwork 10 2 8 0
1980,,,, (Plant Variety Protection Law) (UPOV),,,,,,,,, 281
( ), ( ) ( ), EU IT BT, ET, NT,,,,,, WTO TBT ( one standard, one test, accepted everywhere ), 2 8 2
: % : KIET (2005) (100) 471 344 73 38 73 2020 (< -1> ),, SCIE(Science Citation Index Expanded) NT 2000 221 8 2003 832 6, 2004 1,128,,, 5, IT, BT NT 2020, 2020 283
,,,,,,, 1, 2 8 4
,,,, UN World Population Prospects 2020 97),, 97),, 285
:, % 2005 2010 2015 2020 6,464,750 121 6,842,923 114 7,219,431 107 7,577,889 097 47,817 044 48,566 031 49,092 022 49,393 012 128,085 017 128,457 006 127,993 007 126,713 020 298,213 097 312,253 092 325,723 085 338,427 077 59,668 034 60,517 028 61,417 030 62,491 035 1,315,844 065 1,354,533 058 1,392,980 056 1,423,939 044 1,103,371 155 1,183,293 140 1,260,366 126 1,332,032 111 : UN World Population Prospects, 2004 < -1>, 2020 76, 15 1% 2020 5,000, 2020 012%,,,, 2 8 6
: % 0~14 233 160 221 192 265 358 315 1995 15~24 185 147 137 125 181 188 176 25~64 524 547 518 524 493 409 440 65 58 146 124 159 61 45 69 0~14 209 147 216 190 248 341 300 2000 15~24 164 127 138 122 156 187 179 25~64 553 554 523 529 428 423 447 65 74 172 123 159 68 49 74 0~14 159 138 201 169 195 299 269 2010 15~24 136 98 143 134 161 190 175 25~64 592 54 528 532 561 454 479 65 113 224 128 165 83 57 77 0~14 132 129 192 164 184 263 251 2020 15~24 11 95 132 119 125 174 157 25~64 602 495 518 529 572 493 498 65 156 281 158 188 119 70 94 : UN World Population Prospects, 2004, < -2>,,, 65, 14 2020 132%, 15 24 2020 287
11%, 25 64 602%, 65 2020 156%,, 98), : 2000 2005 2010 2020 6,085,572 1012 6,464,750 1010 6,842,923 1009 7,577,889 1006 47,817 1012 48,566 1005 49,092 998 49,393 982 128,085 959 128,457 955 127,993 951 126,713 940 298,213 966 312,253 968 325,723 969 338,427 971 59,668 946 60,517 955 61,417 959 62,491 962 1,315,844 1059 1354,533 1056 1,392,980 1053 1,423,939 1043 1,103,371 1059 1,183,293 1052 1,260,366 1046 1,332,032 1036 : UN World Population Prospects, 2004 : 100 98), 2 8 8
2005 2020,,,,,,, 2020,, 2020 (Global Insight), 2005 2010 45%, 2011 2015 42%, 2016 2020 40%,, 99) 99),,,,, 289
,, (LOHAS: Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) 100) 1980, 30%, 4 173% 52%, 2000 1,500 2003 3,900 3 26,, 5 100) 2 9 0
, 2000 4%, 2004 79% 2,, 101), 2020,,, 102) 101) (reverse mortgage), 65 102) Batra Ray(1986), 291
,,,,,, 2015,, 2 9 2
, (trading up),,,,,,, 2001 32 2004 1,100 34,,, MP3 293
, BMW MINI, 20 30,,, 2 9 4
(Arnold Toynbee) 103 ) (Ronald Inglehart),, ( p o s t m a t e r i a l i s t ) 104 ) 103),,,, (, 2001) 104) Inglehart(1990) 295
,, (Michael Porter), 105 ) (Francis Fukuyama),,,,,,,,, 105) (2001) 2 9 6
,,,, BBC, (UAE), 10M, 106), 106) (2005 8 11) 297
,,,,,, (intelligent home) 107),, (homesourcing) DVD,,, MP3, DVD 1990,,, DVD 107),, 2 9 8
, 75,, DMB,, MP3 player, 2005,,,, 108) (cyberation: cyber + relation),,, 108), 7 299
,, Finding Friends,, ( ) ( ), ( ), ^^( ), ( ) 109 ),,, 109) (, ( ), 3 0 0
,, 110), (Web identity) 111),, 112) (Digital Divide) IT, F(fusion), F 113) 110) (Avatar) (avatara, ), 111) 112), (LG, 2005) 113) F, 40~50 20~30 F, 60 ~ 70 40 ~ 50, 80~90 60 ~ 70 20 ~ 30 F 301
,,, (LOHAS: Life of Health and Sustainability) LOHAS, LOHAS IT,,, IT,, ( ) (, ),,,, 3 0 2
30 50 30 (Neverland) 114), 13%,, F,,, X- 115),, 21, 114) Neverland 115) X- (Extreme),, 303
,,, 21 (cash cow) 116) ( ), 117), (freeter), 118) 119) 116), 8 117) (downshift),, (LG, 2005) 118) (free) (arbeiter) 1990 119) 3 0 4
,,, 440, 10% ( ) 25% 120),, ( ),, 120) The Economist(1998 12 19) 305
75 ( ) ( ),, ( ),,,, (trading up) 121) 121) 12 3 0 6
(NGO: Non Government Organization),,, (WWF),,,,,,, 1950 100, 20,,,,,,, (Fouad Ajami), 307
, 122),,,, 123) (Harley-Davidson) (Starbucks) 122) Fouad Ajami(1993) 123) 2005 12, (, 20051210),, TV 2006, (, 20051210) 124) 1907 3 0 8
, 124),,,,,,, (consumer royalty),,,, IT 309
,, 125) 2001 240 2003 1,347,,, 125), 3 1 0
, 126),,,,,,,,,,,,, 126), 311
,, (Glocal: global+local),,,,, 127), 2020 (< -1> ), : % : KIET (2005) (100) 107 269 452 107 65 127) (2005 7 21) 3 1 2
,,,,, 313
2020,,,,,, 2020 315
, 2020 15 (1 ), (2 ) 3 15 (1 ), IT BT NT (2 ) 3 A A1 A2 B1 B2 B C D 3 1 6
,,,,, 2020 < -1> D,,,,,, -1A1 A2, (muddling-through), ( ), ( ), 317
, ( -1B1),,,,,,,, 2020 3 1 8
2002 7, 2020,, 2020,,,, 2020 2020, 2020,,,,, 319
, 6,,,,, 2008~2010 2020,,, 3 2 0
, 2008~2010 2020 2020,,,, 2010,,,,, 321
,, 2010,, 2010, 2008 2 5, 000 2010, 2010,,,,,, 2020,,,, 3 2 2
2010,,,, 2010,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, DMZ, DMZ,,,,, 323
,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),, ( ),, MDL ( ) 3 2 4
,,, (,,, ), DMZ,,,,,,,,, 325
: % 38 47 43 243 265 200 141 153 143 465 388 457 114 147 157 34 33 35 42 245 146 433 134 34 : (2005) : 1) 426 2) 5 ( 1, 3, 5 ),,, 2020 ( ), 433%, 134%, 5 34, 3 2 6
, 2020 2020,,, 2010,, 2020,, 327
,,, R&D,,,,, 3 2 8
,, 2020,, 2020,,,,,,,,, 1990 329
,,,,,,,, 3 3 0
: % 11 46 14 259 246 214 275 320 157 333 280 500 122 109 114 25 247 274 339 115 : (2005) : 1) 434 2),,,,,, 2 1,,, 2020, 339%, 274%, 247%, 115% 331
,, 2020,, 2020,, 128), 3 3 2
,,,,, IT,,,,,,,,,, 333
,, IT,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1 2020 3 3 4
1 2020,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 335
,,,,,,,,, 3 3 6
, 337
,,,, (WTO, DDA ), (FTA, EU, NAFTA, ), (Guinet, 2003),, 339
,, (Storper, 1997),, (,,, ), WTO,,,,,, ( ) EU,, 3 4 0
: Guinet, J(2003),,,,,,,, 341
(production chain) (flexible specialization), (flexibility) (industrial eco-system) (territorial production system) (flexibility),, -,, 21 3 4 2
(, ),, (market failure),,, (OECD, 1999),,,, 343
, (diminishing returns to capital),,,,,, 1990, (collective learning) (conditional framework) (, 2001),,, 3 4 4
,,,, ( ) ( ) : Guinet, J(2003),,,,, (critical mass)?, (Randstad), (Kansai), 345
,, (borrowed size), (network cities), (virtual agglomeration),,,,,,, ( ), 3 4 6
(, 2004), Moran I LISA Moran I, Moran I 5% (005) (+) OECD ICT ( 129) ),,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) 129) (SIC 24), (SIC 29), (SIC 33), (SIC 34) 347
H-H L-L H-L L-H : (2004) : H-H( ), H-L( ), L-H( ), L-L( ) H-H L-L H-L L-H : (2004) : H-H( ), H-L( ), L-H( ), L-L( ) 3 4 8
01% (0001) (+) (spatial lag),, (spatial division of labor),,, 349
(IT,, ),,, ( ),,,, 3 5 0
,, IT LG-,,,,, (, 2005), ( ), 351
,,, 4 5 (RIS), 3 5 2 : (2005)
: (2005),,, 353
,, (lock-in),, (critical mass), (,,,, ), ( ) Ohamae(1995) 500 2,000 4C(Communication, Corporation, Capital, Consumer),,, NIS RIS,, NIS, NIS RIS 16 ( ) 3 5 4
( ) TL * TL ( ) 47,008 16 2,938 16 (RIS) + NIS 275,372 50 5,507 50 (RIS) + NIS 126,926 47 2,701 6-12 (RIS) + NIS 82,205 16 5,138 9 (RIS) + NIS 58,893 22 2,677 6 (RIS) + NIS 58,655 63 931 9 (RIS), + NIS 57,189 20 2,859 RIS 8,872 21 422 NIS 5,181 6 864 NIS 5,340 14 381 NIS : TL (Territorial level), OECD TL (national level), TL (regional level), TL (local level) 3 2,000 13 200 355
( ) 2 (NIS, RIS, Cluster) (NIS ) ( ) ( RIS) ( ) 16 : (2003) 3 5 6
,,,,, 15,,,, 6,,,,,, 357
EU,, 2020,, 2020 2020,,,,,, 2020 3 5 8
,,,,,,,, 2020, /, IT, NT, BT (synergistic combination),,, 2020,,, 2020, 2020,,, 359
1) - : - : - : -, EU 2) - : - : 3) - - - 2-4) -, - -, - - - 5) - - : (diffusion) - 6) : - - - - 7) -,,, -,,, - -,, 8) - - -, - ( ) 3 6 0
- IT, NT, BT (synergistic combination) 9) IT BT NT - -,, - 10) : - :, - 11) : - - - 12) -,, - - - : 13) - :,, - (NGO) - - 14) - - - 15) - -,,,,,, (NGO) 2020, 361
124 : % 115 105 104 IT BT NT - 103 86 70 65 59 : 42 : 39 36 22 : 17 14 : 438 5,,, 3 6 2
: % 1) 65 67 70 47 2) 115 129 100 114 3) 124 145 106 111 4) 104 90 121 100 5) 14 12 13 22 6) : 39 33 37 58 7) 86 84 90 83 8) 59 65 51 64 9) IT BT NT - - 103 101 105 103 10) : 17 16 22 08 11) : 42 37 57 19 12) 36 35 38 33 13) 70 55 78 89 14) 105 118 91 108 15) 22 15 23 39 15,, 438, 15 2020 5 124% 363
115%, 105%, 104%, IT BT NT 103%, t-, 130),,,, IT BT NT < -3> < -4>, 3, IT BT NT,, 130),, 15 (seperate variance estimate) 001 3 6 4
: % (5 ) 7) 233 252 235 43 9) IT BT NT 147 144 140 40 14) 140 147 130 34 : 15 3, 3,, :, OECD, 1, 2,, : % (5 ) 3) 264 262 256 18 4) 220 202 214 19 11) : 162 157 153 26 : 15 3 365
,,, 5,,,,, 2020,,,, /,,, /,,, /,, 3 6 6
,,,,,,,,,,,, / (, ),,, /,,,,, /, ( ),,,,,,,, -,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, -,,,,,,, 367
LG (2005), 2010, Oh, Jeffrey(2005),, 2015 3 Bio Executive Forum (2005),,, 2015 3 Bio Executive Forum (2005), (2005), (II),,, (2004), (2002),, 21 (2004), 10,, (2003),, 5 (2003), 2003 (2005), (2005), 21, 8 29 (2005), 2 004 (2004), ( 06-20) (2005), (2004),, (2002),, (2005), FTA, (2004), 21, (2002),, 41, (2001),, 17 2, 369
(2003),,, (2001),,, (2004),, 2004 (2003),, (2004),, e-kiet, (2005), CRS, e-kiet 244 (2005),, (2005),, 8 1, (2003),,, (I), (2004),, 1, (2001), 2005, (2001),, (1994),, 29 2 (1999),,,, pp 67~92 (2005),, (2003),, (2004),, (2002), 2010, 4 (2001),, (2002),, (2003),,, 3 7 0
(2004),, (2002),, (2005), (CRS), < > (2003), (2002), 60 TREND 60 CHANCE, (2003),, (2005), (2003),,, (1995),, 30(4): 5-19 (2005), 2015,, 2015 3 Bio Executive Forum (2003),, (2005),, (2000),,,, (2005), UN ( ), (2005), 10, 9, (2003),, (2000),, 21, (2001),, (2002), IT-NT IT-BT,, No 1070, 10, ETRI (2003),, (2003), :B2B, SIGMA INSIGHT (2003), :B2B, SIGMA INSIGHT (2003),, (2001), (2001),, ie 371
, (2005),, (2003),?, (2005),, (2005), 2020 :, KIET, 4 29 (2003),, (1999),, (2004),, (2002),, (2004),,, LG, LG (2005),, FKI Issue Paper, 25 (2005), HDD (2003),, 2003, (2005),, 4-3, (2005), (2001),, (2004),,, (2005),,, (2004),, (2005),, (2003),, (2004),, KDI (1999), MRA, 3 7 2
(2000),, (2003),, III 8, (2005), /, (2002),, SERI CEO Information 351 (2005),, (2004),, (2005),, (2005),, (2005), (2003),, (2005), 20, (2003), 2003 ( ), (2003), : (2002), WTO (2003), (2003), (2004), (2003),, (2004), (Marine Technology, MT) (2004), (OCEAN KOREA) 21 (2005),, (2003),, (1996),, 373
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http://wwwsinglesmagcom http://wwwinternationalspecialreportscom http://wwwinfostatgouvqcca http://wwweiadoegov/oiaf/aeo/ http://wwweiadoegov/oiaf/ieo/indexhtml 3 8 4
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2005 12 28 2005 12 31 1983 7 76-0001 130-742 206-9 02-3299-3114 wwwkietrekr 50,000 8 ISBN 89-5992-047-9 94320 ISBN 89-5992-045-2 8 02-3299-3151