2009 년도예비타당성조사보고서중입자가속기기술개발사업 공공투자관리센터 한국개발연구원
요약
요약 제 Ⅰ 장중입자가속기기술개발사업의개요 제 1 절사업의배경및목적,.,. () 2008. - (, ) -, 21 - -
제 2 절사업의추진경위및추진근거 < 표 1> 사업의추진경위 '03.2~9, '03.12 '04.1~7 '04.10 '05.2 '06.9 '06.12 '07.3 '07.7 '07.8 '07.8 '08.11-1, 2 ( 1,525) - (124, 873)(B/C=0.76, AHP=0.38) -, (4) (), () 8(07 8) ( 08 32) - 6 (): - 3(2007~2011) - 5(2007~2011)
제3절사업개요 1. 사업의주요내용. < 표 2> 중입자가속기기술개발사업의개요 314 () 88,360, 12,800 : - () (8,000), (2,800), (2,000) - () (8,000), (4,800) 1,950 2010~2015(6) / (400MeV/u) - : - : 700, () 500, ( ) 750 :, (2008.9). - : Siemens, IBA,
- -, (RT) < 표 3> 주요개발장비및개발유형 ( 국제공동공동개발 ) 1 ( 400 MeV/u) () 2 () 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 : ( ) : ( ):, (, ): :, [ 그림 1] 사업추진체계도
2. 총사업비내역 1,950. 595, 821, 400 134. 1,950 700( 36%), (, ) 500, 750.. < 표 4> 연차별총사업비산출근거 1 2 3 4 5 6 (A) 18 19 22 25 25 25 134 30 90 110 110 81 70 491 5 20 34 15 15 15 104 Gantry 50 150 150 165 170 100 785 3 4 4 5 10 10 36 (B) 88 264 298 295 276 195 1,416 80 - - - - - 80 ( ) 10 80 100 100 15 15 320 (C) 90 80 100 100 15 15 400 (A+B+C) 196 363 420 420 316 235 1,950 :, (), 2008.9. (: )
제 Ⅱ 장기초자료분석및조사의쟁점사항 제 1 절사업부지현황 341. 2011. ( 2 ).. [ 그림 2] 사업부지도시관리계획결정 ( 신설 ) 도
제 2 절암발생현황 2007 24 4,874, 6 7,561 27.6%. 10 1,032 1,017, 1,047. 1), (298) (286) 10. 제 3 절방사선암치료의개념과현황,,. 30~50%..... 1),, 1, 30.
< 표 5> 방사선치료기의종류및현황 LINAC IMRT 1994 1980 1990 1954 1994 X- X- Bragg peak Bragg peak (RBE) 1024 :. - KDI 2, 2009.1. 제4절의료용중입자가속기현황및국내기술수준 1. 의료용중입자가속기개요 가. 중입자가속기 (,,, ).,,., (ET),., // (heavy ion therapy), BT,
나. 중입자가속기의의료분야에의적용, () 2007, (), (), (Med-AUSTRON), (Karolinska). 2 Marburg < 표 6> 운영중인의료용중입자가속기의비교 (Country) (MeV/u) (Max Clinical Energy) (Beam Direction) (Start of Treatment) HIMAC(Chiba) 800, 1994 HIBMC(hyogo) 320, 2002 GSI 430 1997 Heidelberg 430 1 Gantry, raster scanning, 2 Fixed beams 2007 Med-AUSTRON - 2Gantry, 12 2011() CNAO 430 3, 1 2010() :,, 2008.8. 다. 중입자치료의효과 ( 양성자치료대비 ) 1) 물리적측면에서의장점 Bragg peak,. Bragg peak, (entrance dose) 10%.
. -, -. 2) 생물학적측면에서의장점 (RBE: Relative biologic effectiveness). 1, RBE 1.1 4. 4,. 3) 중입자치료의단점 RBE 2~4, 4. 2. 의료용중입자가속기개발현황 (NIRS) (GSI) IBA. NIRS GSI Mitsubishi Siemens
Mitsubishi Siemens IBA. < 표 7> Mitsubishi, Siemens, IBA 비교분석 Mitsubishi () Siemens () IBA () 1921 1 15 1847 1986 (1947 ),,,,,, : 4(2) : (3, HIT, : 2(1, 2009) 2011) : 13(2) : (1, Cane, 2011) : (140-400 MeV/u) :(passive) : : (140-400 MeV/u) (400 MeV/u) :, active scanning :, active scanning Active,, Active,, Active, NIRS, Gunma GSI, Darmstadt, PSI, MGH INFN, Dresden, ARCHADE 3,000/ 1,000/1 3,000/ 1,000/1 3,000/ 1,000/1 () 1,400 (+ 3) (100 = 1,000) 2,500 (+ 3) ($1 = 1,000) 2,300 (+ 3) (1Euro = 1,600) :, - KDI 2, 2009.1.
3. 의료용중입자가속기관련국내기술현황 (2.5 GeV), (1MeV, 30MeV, 50MeV), (235 MeV) 2007(100 MeV). 20,.. < 표 8> 국내외기술상태의계량화된수치비교및기술격차 (%) 55 85 GeV MeV 50MeV 70 90 40 75 BT 60 90 NT 60 80 60 90 60 80 :,, 2008.9.
제 5 절사전용역연구결과검토. < 표 9> 중입자가속기기술개발사업의사전용역결과 (, 2003) (, 2004) (, 2007) (, 2008) 720 1,200, 400MeV/u 3 - ( 1,000) - ( 2,000) - ( 1,500) B/C 1.563~1.756 제 6 절관련법및상위계획 (2008.2.29 ) 13 3 (577 Initiative) (10) (13) (26).
[4] (12), [5] (15). 5(2007~2011) [4] (10), [5] (14). 제 7 절관계기관방문결과 < 10>. < 표 10> 관계기관방문결과 / - 2010 3 (), 2008 2009 Prototype.
제 8 절조사의쟁점사항 1. 사업내용의구체성 4.,,.. 2. 기술적타당성관련쟁점 -.. -,.
(),. 3. 비용추정관련쟁점 -, 2007,. 4. 편익추정관련쟁점. : :,
: (, ) 5. 정책적분석의쟁점 : 1,950 750 750. 38%, (),,.
제 Ⅲ 장기술적타당성검토 제 1 절개요. < 표 11> 기술적타당성분석의검토항목 / 제 2 절기술개발계획의적절성,.,.
,..,.. 제 3 절기술개발성공가능성,.,. /,. 제 4 절기존기술 / 사업과의중복성 /. /:..
:,,.,,. 제 Ⅳ 장비용추정 제 1 절비용추정의접근법 < 표 12> 사업비산정연구절차및방법 (,,, ) NIRS, =
제 2 절사업비의개요및대안설정 1,950,, -, 1,950 < 표 13> 총사업비의개요 (: ) 20,150 26,660 12,690 13,400 72,900 10,000 (Treatment System) 48,500 20,000 3,600 82,100 8,000 : 88,360 () 32,000 : 8,000 : 4,800 : 12,800 40,000 195,000 :, (2008.9) 2, 2009.1.30.
70%. - 1 : + - 2 : 제 3 절시설규모의검토 2(2009.1.30) 5 (2009.2) - : 6,737, 457 : 900(30m 30m) 2 ( 40%) 3,243. 제 4 절비용추정의방법및기준검토 () (2009.2.13), (4). :
: 2007 :,, 제 5 절총사업비산정 1 2,169, 2 1,839. < 표 14> 총사업비합계 (VAT 포함 ) (:, %) 1 () (%) 2 () (%) 8,000.0 9,229.8 15.4 9,229.8 15.4 72,900.0 72,900.0 0.0 82,100.0 60,850.0-25.9 103,760.0-33.1 32,000.0 49,452.9 54.5 49,425.9 54.5-2,345.0 2,345.0-1,939.0 1,939.0-495.0 495.0 4,779.0 4,779.0 195,000.0 197,211.7 1.1 167,221.7-14.2 (10%) - 19,721.0 16,722.0 195,000.0 216,932.7 11.2 183,943.7-5.7
제 6 절총사업비의연차별투입계획 2010~2015 6. < 표 15> 대안1 총사업비의연차별배분계획 (VAT 별도 ) (: ) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9,229.8 9,229.8 4,049.4 12,148.2 17,547.4 13,498.0 10,798.4 9,448.6 67,490.0 5,877.5 17,632.5 17,632.5 17,632.5 58,775.0 4,495.7 17,982.9 8,991.4 13,487.2 44,957.2 1,705.6 426.4 2,132.0 176.3 705.2 352.6 528.9 1,763.0 360.0 90.0 450.0 20,016.8 31,352.7 32,768.9 45,146.6 28,430.9 27,081.1 184,797.0 (10%) 2,001.7 3,135.3 3,276.9 4,514.7 2,843.1 2,708.1 18,479.7 22,018.5 34,488.0 36,045.8 49,661.3 31,274.0 29,789.2 203,276.7 < 표 16> 대안 2 총사업비의연차별배분계획 (VAT 별도 ) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9,229.8 9,229.8 (: ) 6,000.0 18,000.0 26,000.0 20,000.0 16,000.0 14,000.0 100,000.0 4,495.7 17,982.9 8,991.4 13,487.2 44,957.2 1,705.6 426.4 2,132.0 176.3 705.2 352.6 528.9 1,763.0 360.0 90.0 450.0 21,967.4 37,204.5 35,344.0 34,016.1 16,000.0 14,000.0 158,532.0 (10%) 2,196.7 3,720.5 3,534.4 3,401.6 1,600.0 1,400.0 15,853.2 24,164.1 40,925.0 38,878.4 37,417.7 17,600.0 15,400.0 174,385.2
제 7 절경제성분석을위한운영비추정,. - HIMAC 2016 8 3% 6 15%. 2031~2045 2030. - 2016 20, HIMAC 10 3% 4 15%. 2031~2045 2030., 14( 1%) 50% (7.95) 21.95 1,380 5% 69,.
제 Ⅴ 장수요추정 제 1 절수요추정의전제,. 30.. 제 2 절수요추정. 1: 30 2: (+) 3: HIMAC (1994~2008),
2016 (150). < 표 17> 치료환자수분석의전제 1() HIMAC() (1994~2008) 150 제 3 절중입자치료환자의수요추정결과 2016~2045 30,, 2038 1,108.
제 Ⅵ 장편익추정 제 1 절편익항목. (1-1) (1-2) < 표 18> 편익항목과분석대상포함여부 (2-1) (2-2) (2-3) (3-1).
제 2 절중입자치료편익 1. 생존자경제활동편익,. 1 : 5 10% 2 : 1 3 5 15% 3 : 5 20% = - : - : 2005 (55.3) (64.4). - : (55~59, 60) (),. 1 4,072, 2 6,108, 3 8,144. 2. 원정치료편익 2016 1, 1.
- HIMAC: 15(1994~2008) 7 - : 8(2001~2008) 1 28. 5, 5 5. - : 7(2002~2008) 20 169. 제 3 절연구개발편익 1. 중입자가속기연구편익 1,, - (2010~2016) - 595 340 255 2. 2. 임상 의학연구편익, Mansfield. =
- : 36 2016( 8 3%, 6 15%, 2045) - : Mansfield 28% 14%, 40%, 5 55%, 10 65%, 15 75%. 355. 3. 생명과학연구편익. = - : 2016 20, 15 10 3%, 4 15%, 2045 - : Mansfield 28% 14%, 5 70%, 5 80%, 10 90% 1,176. 제 4 절중입자가속기도입에따른총편익산정, 1 () 1 6,055, 2 8,091, 3 10,127. 2 () 1 5,800, 2 7,836, 3 9,872.
< 표 19> 대안 1 의총편익 (: ) 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2010 1,538 317 1,855 1,855 1,855 1,580 1,580 1,580 2011 4,741 422 5,163 5,163 5,163 4,168 4,168 4,168 2012 6,151 422 6,573 6,573 6,573 5,029 5,029 5,029 2013 5,382 528 5,910 5,910 5,910 4,286 4,286 4,286 2014 4,101 1,055 5,156 5,156 5,156 3,544 3,544 3,544 2015 3,588 1,055 4,643 4,643 4,643 3,025 3,025 3,025 2016 167 2,713 4,070 5,427 1,233 3,607 7,720 9,077 10,433 4,768 5,606 6,444 2017 173 3,533 5,300 7,067 1,270 3,716 8,692 10,459 12,226 5,089 6,123 7,157 2018 179 4,354 6,530 8,707 1,309 3,827 9,668 11,845 14,022 5,365 6,573 7,781 2019 185 5,174 7,761 10,347 1,348 3,942 10,649 13,235 15,822 5,601 6,962 8,322 2020 191 5,994 8,991 11,988 1,388 4,060 11,633 14,630 17,627 5,800 7,294 8,788 2021 358 6,720 10,080 13,441 1,629 4,783 13,490 16,850 20,210 6,375 7,963 9,551 2022 364 7,540 11,311 15,081 1,678 4,927 14,509 18,279 22,050 6,499 8,188 9,877 2023 370 8,361 12,541 16,721 1,728 5,075 15,533 19,714 23,894 6,595 8,370 10,145 2024 376 9,181 13,771 18,361 1,780 5,227 16,563 21,154 25,744 6,666 8,513 10,361 2025 382 10,001 15,001 20,001 1,513 5,384 17,280 22,280 27,280 6,592 8,499 10,407 2026 549 10,727 16,091 21,454 1,461 6,328 19,065 24,428 29,792 6,893 8,833 10,772 2027 555 11,547 17,321 23,095 1,242 5,379 18,723 24,497 30,270 6,417 8,396 10,375 2028 561 12,367 18,551 24,735 1,056 4,572 18,556 24,740 30,924 6,028 8,037 10,046 2029 567 13,188 19,781 26,375 897 3,886 18,537 25,131 31,725 5,708 7,739 9,769 2030 573 14,008 21,011 28,015 763 3,303 18,647 25,650 32,654 5,442 7,487 9,531 2031 740 14,734 22,101 29,468 763 3,303 19,540 26,907 34,274 5,406 7,444 9,482 2032 746 15,554 23,331 31,108 763 3,303 20,366 28,143 35,920 5,341 7,380 9,419 2033 752 16,374 24,562 32,749 763 3,303 21,192 29,379 37,566 5,268 7,303 9,338 2034 758 17,194 25,792 34,389 763 3,303 22,018 30,616 39,213 5,188 7,213 9,239 2035 764 18,015 27,022 36,029 763 3,303 22,845 31,852 40,859 5,102 7,113 9,125 2036 931 18,741 28,112 37,482 763 3,303 23,738 33,108 42,479 5,025 7,008 8,992 2037 937 19,561 29,342 39,122 763 3,303 24,564 34,344 44,125 4,929 6,891 8,853 2038 943 20,266 30,399 40,532 763 3,303 25,275 35,408 45,541 4,807 6,734 8,661 2039 949 20,266 30,399 40,532 763 3,303 25,281 35,414 45,547 4,557 6,384 8,211 2040 955 20,266 30,399 40,532 763 3,303 25,287 35,420 45,553 4,321 6,052 7,784 2041 1,122 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,360 35,447 45,533 4,107 5,741 7,375 2042 1,128 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,366 35,453 45,539 3,894 5,443 6,991 2043 1,134 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,372 35,459 45,545 3,692 5,160 6,628 2044 1,140 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,379 35,465 45,551 3,500 4,892 6,283 2045 1,146 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,385 35,471 45,557 3,319 4,637 5,956 19,689 407,243 610,865 814,486 25,501 35,538 117,561 605,533 809,155 1,012,776 179,926 231,609 283,293
< 표 20> 대안 2 의총편익 (: ) 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2010 317 317 317 317 270 270 270 2011 422 422 422 422 341 341 341 2012 422 422 422 422 323 323 323 2013 528 528 528 528 383 383 383 2014 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 725 725 725 2015 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 687 687 687 2016 167 2,713 4,070 5,427 1,233 3,607 7,720 9,077 10,433 4,768 5,606 6,444 2017 173 3,533 5,300 7,067 1,270 3,716 8,692 10,459 12,226 5,089 6,123 7,157 2018 179 4,354 6,530 8,707 1,309 3,827 9,668 11,845 14,022 5,365 6,573 7,781 2019 185 5,174 7,761 10,347 1,348 3,942 10,649 13,235 15,822 5,601 6,962 8,322 2020 191 5,994 8,991 11,988 1,388 4,060 11,633 14,630 17,627 5,800 7,294 8,788 2021 358 6,720 10,080 13,441 1,629 4,783 13,490 16,850 20,210 6,375 7,963 9,551 2022 364 7,540 11,311 15,081 1,678 4,927 14,509 18,279 22,050 6,499 8,188 9,877 2023 370 8,361 12,541 16,721 1,728 5,075 15,533 19,714 23,894 6,595 8,370 10,145 2024 376 9,181 13,771 18,361 1,780 5,227 16,563 21,154 25,744 6,666 8,513 10,361 2025 382 10,001 15,001 20,001 1,513 5,384 17,280 22,280 27,280 6,592 8,499 10,407 2026 549 10,727 16,091 21,454 1,461 6,328 19,065 24,428 29,792 6,893 8,833 10,772 2027 555 11,547 17,321 23,095 1,242 5,379 18,723 24,497 30,270 6,417 8,396 10,375 2028 561 12,367 18,551 24,735 1,056 4,572 18,556 24,740 30,924 6,028 8,037 10,046 2029 567 13,188 19,781 26,375 897 3,886 18,537 25,131 31,725 5,708 7,739 9,769 2030 573 14,008 21,011 28,015 763 3,303 18,647 25,650 32,654 5,442 7,487 9,531 2031 740 14,734 22,101 29,468 763 3,303 19,540 26,907 34,274 5,406 7,444 9,482 2032 746 15,554 23,331 31,108 763 3,303 20,366 28,143 35,920 5,341 7,380 9,419 2033 752 16,374 24,562 32,749 763 3,303 21,192 29,379 37,566 5,268 7,303 9,338 2034 758 17,194 25,792 34,389 763 3,303 22,018 30,616 39,213 5,188 7,213 9,239 2035 764 18,015 27,022 36,029 763 3,303 22,845 31,852 40,859 5,102 7,113 9,125 2036 931 18,741 28,112 37,482 763 3,303 23,738 33,108 42,479 5,025 7,008 8,992 2037 937 19,561 29,342 39,122 763 3,303 24,564 34,344 44,125 4,929 6,891 8,853 2038 943 20,266 30,399 40,532 763 3,303 25,275 35,408 45,541 4,807 6,734 8,661 2039 949 20,266 30,399 40,532 763 3,303 25,281 35,414 45,547 4,557 6,384 8,211 2040 955 20,266 30,399 40,532 763 3,303 25,287 35,420 45,553 4,321 6,052 7,784 2041 1,122 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,360 35,447 45,533 4,107 5,741 7,375 2042 1,128 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,366 35,453 45,539 3,894 5,443 6,991 2043 1,134 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,372 35,459 45,545 3,692 5,160 6,628 2044 1,140 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,379 35,465 45,551 3,500 4,892 6,283 2045 1,146 20,173 30,259 40,345 763 3,303 25,385 35,471 45,557 3,319 4,637 5,956 19,689 407,243 610,865 814,486 35,538 117,561 580,032 783,654 987,275 161,022 212,706 264,389
제 1 절경제성분석의전제 제 Ⅶ 장경제성분석 2007 2010~2045, 6 2016 30-5.5%,.,,, 제 2 절경제성분석결과, -(B/C ratio) 1 0.65~1.02, 2 0.62~1.02. B/C 2 1. - 3 B/C (NPV).
, - < 표 21> 경제성분석결과 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 B/C 0.65 0.83 1.02 0.62 0.82 1.02 NPV -97,621-45,983 5,746-98,059-46,375 5,308 IRR 0.32% 3.51% 5.72% 0.39% 3.53% 5.70% 제 3 절민감도분석 1,, < 22>~< 24>. < 표 22> 대안 1 의민감도분석결과 ( 할인율변화 ) B/C NPV () 1 2 3 1 2 3 3.5% 0.77 1.00 1.24-82,481 222 82,925 5.5% 0.65 0.83 1.02-97,621-45,983 5,746 7.5% 0.55 0.70 0.85-100,869-67,551-34,232 < 표 23> 대안 1 의민감도분석결과 ( 비용변화 ) B/C NPV () 1 2 3 1 2 3-20% 0.81 1.04 1.28-42,112 9,571 61,225 0% 0.65 0.83 1.02-97,621-45,983 5,746 +20% 0.54 0.70 0.85-153,131-101,448-49,764 < 표 24> 대안 1 의민감도분석결과 ( 편익변화 ) B/C NPV () 1 2 3 1 2 3-20% 0.52 0.67 0.82-133,606-92,260-50,913 0% 0.65 0.83 1.02-97,621-45,983 5,746 +20% 0.78 1.00 1.23-61,636 384 62,404
제 Ⅷ 장정책적분석 제 1 절개요 (4).,. < 표 25> 정책적분석항목의범주화 제 2 절지역균형발전 16 9, 170 52. -,
-, 492 0.0552%, 2006 45 0.2465%. < 표 26> 중입자가속기기술개발사업의지역경제활성화효과 (: ) 492 281.64 (GRDP) 509,908.7318 0.0552% : AHP GRDP. 제3절정책의일관성및추진의지 1. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성 (577 Initiative), 3(20072011), 5(2007~2011)..,.
< 표 27> 상위관련계획의관련성 (577 Initiative) 3(20072011) 5(2007~2011) : :, :, :. 2. 사업추진의지및선호도 () 2003.,. () 1.,. (, ) 500 250. 2008 30.,.
3. 사업의준비정도 4. (, 2003.8), (KAIST, 2004.4), (, 2007.6), (, 2008.12).,,, 제4절사업추진상의위험요인 1. 재원조달가능성 2008 2,298, 2010~2015 700., 2008 46 2009 61.6,., (2009 340) (2009 228),..
2008 30 2009. 719 750, 1,469 2008(2,053) 71.6%.. -,. 2. 환경성.., 제5절사업특수평가항목 1. 원자력수용성개선효과,
.,.,, ().
제 Ⅸ 장종합결론및정책제언 제 1 절종합평가 AHP, 0.516 0.484. < 표 28> AHP 평가결과 0.516 0.484 1 0.581 0.419 2 0.587 0.413 3 0.553 0.447 4 0.436 0.564 5 0.559 0.441 6 0.451 0.549
< 표 29> 각항목별가중치산정결과 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.500 0.500 0.450 0.400 0.500 0.450 0.470 0.200 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.300 0.200 0.240 0.127 0.054 0.162 0.064 0.133 0.086 0.119 0.052 0.013 0.057 0.019 0.133 0.029 0.046 / 0.021 0.132 0.031 0.218 0.033 0.086 0.075 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.200 0.350 0.290 0.157 0.197 0.041 0.175 0.118 0.131 0.137-0.100 0.054 0.012 0.075 0.052 0.056 0.060-0.016 0.013 0.006 0.075 0.013 0.019 0.021-0.040 0.130 0.024 0.025 0.052 0.056 0.056 0.060 0.057 0.083 0.069 0.045 0.131 0.078-0.050 0.048 0.062 0.058 0.040 0.098 0.064-0.010 0.010 0.021 0.012 0.006 0.033 0.014 0.023 0.023 0.022 0.020 0.018 0.044 0.027-0.008 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.015 0.009-0.016 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.029 0.018 0.060 0.023 0.154 0.036 0.018 0.044 0.048-0.060 0.023 0.154 0.036 0.018 0.044 0.048 0.033 0.038 0.004 0.126 0.036-0.017 :.
제 2 절정책제언. - 4 R&D.. -,.. -,.,,. - /- 0.62 1.02. -. - 1(+ ) 2(). -,, B/C -, (, ).
-,. -,. -, 2006. AHP, 0.516 0.484.,. -,,,,. -,. - R&D.,. -,. -,.
,. - -. -, 700.,. -,.,,. -. -.