Company update & Earnings preview Korea / Banks 14 July 2016 BUY 15,000 9,950 Upside/downside (%) 50.8 KOSPI 2,005.55 6,726 8,230-10,800 19.20 24.9 Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 4,493.0 4,761.9 5,117.2 5,413.4 460.6 706.7 910.0 665.4 897.7 1,351.6 1,774.5 1,630.3 1,214.0 1,059.2 1,370.7 1,238.1 552.2 1,059.2 1,370.7 1,238.1 1,795 1,566 2,028 1,831 흑전 (12.8) 29.5 (9.7) 5.5 6.4 4.9 5.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.7 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.32 6.8 5.7 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Change to EPS Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 1,795 1,566 2,028 1,831 1,795 1,566 1,973 1,876 - - 2.8 (2.4) Performance (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSPI (RHS) 11,300 10,800 10,300 9,800 9,300 8,800 8,300 7,800 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Performance 1M 3M 12M (2.0) 6.5 5.7 (3.3) 5.3 8.5, Analyst 3774 1903 heather.kang@miraeasset.com 3774 1782 yongdai.park@miraeasset.com (%) 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 See the last page of this report for important disclosures
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com Figure 1 우리은행 12 개월 forward P/B 및 업종 대비 할증(할인) 추이, NPL 비율 추이 (%) 우리은행-은행업종 (LHS) 우리은행 (RHS) 50 2.0 40 1.8 30 A B C D E 1.6 20 1.4 10 1.2 0 1.0 (10) 0.8 (20) 0.6 (30) 0.4 (40) 0.2 (50) 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NPL 비율 D E 자료: 각 사, Quantiwise, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 2
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com Figure 2 우리은행 주요 이벤트와 주가 추이 자료: 우리은행, KRX, Quantiwise, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 Figure 3 우리은행 핵심이익 추이 자료: 우리은행, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 3
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com 4
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 5
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com Figure 10 우리은행 - Target price valuation Sustainable ROE Growth Cost of equity Cost of equity Rf Beta Market premium Fair P/B (x) 2016E BPS (KRW) Target price (KRW) 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 Figure 11 우리은행 - 목표주가 15,000 원 기준 implied valuation 2014 2015 2016E 2016E 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 6
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com Figure 12 우리은행 민영화 추진 일지 7
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com 8
강혜승, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com 우리은행 박용대, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com 053000 KS Figure 14 우리은행 분기/연간 실적 추정
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com Summary financial statements 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 9,211 8,698 8,813 9,250 4,718 3,936 3,696 3,836 4,493 4,762 5,117 5,413 917 977 961 1,003 (456) (270) (51) (338) 4,954 5,469 6,027 6,079 2,959 3,150 3,360 3,543 1,995 2,318 2,667 2,536 1,097 967 893 905 898 1,352 1,775 1,630 (63) 100 27 20 834 1,452 1,802 1,650 258 377 418 399 576 1,075 1,384 1,251 1,214 1,059 1,371 1,238 552 1,059 1,371 1,238 5,410 5,739 6,079 6,417 2,451 2,588 2,718 2,873 DuPont analysis (%) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 3.02 3.10 2.90 2.86 1.54 1.40 1.22 1.19 1.47 1.69 1.68 1.67 0.30 0.35 0.32 0.31 (0.15) (0.10) (0.02) (0.10) 1.62 1.95 1.98 1.88 0.97 1.12 1.10 1.09 0.65 0.82 0.88 0.78 0.36 0.34 0.29 0.28 (0.02) 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.27 0.52 0.59 0.51 0.08 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 ROA 0.40 0.38 0.45 0.38 레버리지 (x) 17.05 15.12 15.47 15.70 ROE 6.78 5.70 6.97 6.01 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2.12 1.48 1.10 1.05 3.55 2.54 1.86 1.63 98.92 126.01 145.46 145.87 2.10 1.86 1.60 1.54 0.49 0.39 0.33 0.32 0.54 0.43 0.41 0.39 Per share items (원) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E EPS (reported) 1,795 1,566 2,028 1,831 EPS (normalized) 817 1,566 2,028 1,831 BVPS 26,592 28,385 29,790 31,193 DPS (common share) 500 500 500 500 PPOP / share 2,949 3,428 3,945 3,751 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 5,963 6,644 6,857 7,163 37,254 36,752 38,538 40,260 223,370 244,842 267,433 279,936 2,501 2,823 2,813 2,648 1,069 798 803 756 270,157 291,859 316,444 330,763 188,516 209,142 223,427 232,949 17,708 20,034 19,519 20,391 24,796 21,899 21,325 22,278 21,044 21,474 31,907 33,931 252,064 272,549 296,178 309,549 3,381 3,381 3,381 3,381 2,539 3,334 3,334 3,334 291 294 294 294 14,165 13,726 14,618 15,566 0 0 0 0 (2,393) (1,547) (1,490) (1,490) 110 121 127 127 18,093 19,310 20,265 21,213 Key ratios (%) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 성장성 (YoY) (12.8) 10.8 4.8 4.7 5.4 9.6 9.2 4.7 7.5 10.9 6.8 4.3 (20.9) 6.7 4.9 4.7 (20.7) 8.0 8.4 4.5 (27.7) 6.0 7.5 5.8 (36.0) 6.5 (1.6) 4.4 (42.2) 16.2 15.1 (4.9) 20.8 50.6 31.3 (8.1) (325.8) (12.8) 29.4 (9.7) 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 6.8 5.7 7.0 6.0 96.6 96.4 99.2 0.0 82.7 83.9 84.5 84.6 14.2 13.7 13.9 14.0 10.7 10.4 10.7 10.7 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 59.7 57.6 55.7 58.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 27.7 31.8 24.6 27.2 10
, Analyst, 3774 1903, heather.kang@miraeasset.com, 3774 1782, yongdai.park@miraeasset.com Recommendations Compliance Notice Distribution of Ratings Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 17,800 16,800 15,800 14,800 13,800 12,800 11,800 10,800 9,800 8,800 7,800 Nov14 May15 Nov15 May16 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2015-02-02 BUY (Initiate) 12,000 2015-02-06 BUY 12,000 2015-04-14 BUY 12,000 2015-04-30 BUY 13,000 (Up) 2015-06-28 BUY 13,000 2015-06-29 BUY 13,000 2015-07-11 BUY 13,000 2015-07-13 BUY 13,000 2015-07-29 BUY 13,000 2015-07-30 BUY 13,000 2015-10-27 BUY 14,000 (Up) 2015-10-28 BUY 14,000 2015-10-30 BUY 14,000 2016-01-15 BUY 14,000 2016-02-05 BUY 14,000 2016-04-15 BUY 14,000 2016-04-22 BUY 15,000 (Up) 2016-07-14 BUY 15,000 11