8월 속표지_담당자.hwp

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1 총괄국내총생산경기소비설비투자건설투자대외거래노동시장물가금융시장재정세계경제 김현욱 정대희구희일정대희구희일오지윤이유진조덕상김슬기오지윤황세진권규호한일수김지운정유경천소라노시연황순주권수연이태석이지현이상규류지영황세진이우열 본자료는 KDI 홈페이지를통해서도보실수있습니다.

2 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Contents 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators 요약및평가 Summary and Assessment 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) 37 Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) 2. 경기 39 Economic Activity 3. 소비 1 Consumption. 설비투자 3 Equipment Investment 5. 건설투자 5 Construction Investment -1. 수출, 수입및교역조건 7 Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade -2. 경상수지및금융계정 9 Current Account and Financial Account 7. 고용및임금 51 Employment and Wage 8. 물가 53 Price Indices 9-1. 금융시장 (I) 55 Financial Market (I) 9-2. 금융시장 (II) 57 Financial Market (II) 1-1. 세계경제동향 (I) 59 Major Indicators of the World Economy (I) 1-2. 세계경제동향 (II) 1 Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

3 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 주요경제지표 Major Economic Indicators ( 전년동기대비증가율, % / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ 5 7 전산업생산 All Industry Production 광공업생산 Industrial Production 서비스업생산 Service Production 소매판매액 Retail Sales Index 설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index 건설기성액 ( 불변 ) Value of Construction Completed (Constant Price) 수출 ( 통관 ) Exports (f.o.b.) 수입 ( 통관 ) Imports (c.i.f.) 무역수지 ( 십억달러 ) Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars) 실업률 Unemployment Rate 취업자수 Number of Employed 소비자물가 Consumer Price 국고채 3-year Treasury Bonds 종합주가지수 KOSPI 원/ 달러환율 Won/Dollar Exchange Rate OECD 경기선행지수 OECD Composite Leading Indicator 유가 ( 두바이, 달러 / 배럴 ) Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel) ,91 2,2 2, 2,2 2,1 2,392 2,37 2,392 2,3 1, ,27.7 1,11.3 1,27.7 1,118. 1,1.1 1, ,1.1 1, 주: 국고채수익률 종합주가지수 원/ 달러환율은기말기준, 유가( 두바이) 는기간평균기준임.

4 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 요약및평가 최근우리경제는작년 모습을보이고있음. /분기이후의경기개선추세가다소약화되는 제조업을중심으로광공업생산이마이너스증가율을기록하는등산업생산의 개선추세가둔화되고있음. 월전산업생산은 3 월이후증가세가둔화되는추세를지속했으며, 계절조정 전월대비로도감소하였음. 아울러서비스업생산도전반적인회복세를견인하기에는어려운수준에머물고 있는것으로판단됨. 반도체산업중심의설비투자개선추세는유지되고있으나, 경우수요증가세의조정이가시화되고있음. 여타부문의 건설투자는최근 1~2 년간의호조세가조정되는모습을보이고있으며, 수출도 반도체와선박을제외할경우증가세가둔화되고있음. 해외소비를포함한민간소비는비교적안정된증가세를보였으나, 국내경기와 보다밀접한관련이있는소매판매증가율은점진적으로낮아지는모습 다만, 경기선행지수가개선되는흐름을지속하고있으며소비자심리지수도양호한수준에서유지되는등경제주체들의경기개선기대는여전히높은것으로판단됨. 별도의언급이없을경우모든증가율은전년동월대비기준임. 1

5 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경기 : 서비스업생산이완만한증가세를유지하였으나, 광공업생산및출하가부진하며 전반적인경기개선을제약하는모습 월중전산업생산은광공업생산이감소로전환하며전월(2.%) 보다낮은 1.5% 의 증가율을기록 서비스업생산은기저효과에기인하여전월(2.3%) 보다낮은 2.% 의증가율을기록하였으나, 계절조정전월대비로는.5% 증가하는등완만한증가세가유지되는모습 광공업생산은자동차(-2.5%) 및기타운송장비 (-13.2%) 가부진을지속한가운데, 반도체 (-12.%) 생산이큰폭으로축소되면서전월(.2%) 의증가에서.3% 감소로전환 한편, 제조업평균가동률은전월(71.%) 보다낮은 71.3% 를기록하며부진을지속 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 및서비스업생산지수 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 광공업생산지수 (3MA) 서비스업생산지수 (3MA) 제조업출하는수출출하를중심으로전월(-1.1%) 보다높은.1% 의증가율을기록 하였으며, 제조업재고율은하락으로전환 내수출하(.8%) 가완만한증가세를지속한가운데, 수출출하는 1.% 의증가율을기록 하며부진을지속 제조업재고율( 재고/ 출하비율) 은반도체(-7.1%) 를중심으로재고가빠르게감소하면서 전월(125.5%) 보다큰폭하락한 118.2% 를기록 2

6 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 제조업출하지수(3MA) 와재고율 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) (%) 제조업출하지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 제조업재고율 ( 우 ) 11 동행지수순환변동치는건설기성액과광공업생산지수등이감소하며전월 (1.8) 보다낮은 1.을기록 한편, 선행지수 (11.2) 순환변동치는소비자기대지수와코스피지수등이상승하며전월 보다높은 11.5를기록 동행지수순환변동치와선행지수순환변동치 12. ( 기준 =1) 동행지수순환변동치 선행지수순환변동치 3

7 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 소비 : 소매판매증가율이낮은수준에머물러있는가운데, 유사한수준을기록 소비자심리지수는전월과 월중소매판매액증가율은 1.% 상승하여전월(1.5%) 보다증가폭이축소 형태별로는가전제품및통신장비등내구재(1.%) 와비내구재(1.8%) 를중심으로증가 하였으나, 준내구재(-2.%) 는감소함. 계절조정전월대비로는전월(-1.1%) 의감소에서 1.1% 상승으로전환 도 소매업 (.%) 과음식 숙박업 (-.%) 등서비스생산이부진한가운데, 그동안 양호한모습을보였던예술 스포츠 여가(-2.%) 도감소하는모습 한편, 상반기중순해외소비가큰폭으로증가함에따라국민계정상민간소비증가율이 소매판매액지수및서비스업생산지수등국내소비지표에비해높게나타나는배경 으로작용 순해외소비참고지표인여행수지는중국인관광객의감소등으로상반기중큰폭의적자를 지속하는가운데 2/분기중에도적자폭이전년동기대비 155.% 증가 * 여행수지적자( 조원)[ 전년동기대비, %]: ( 17년 1/ 분기).3[81.] (2/ 분기).5[155.] 7 월중소비자심리지수는, 가계형편과현재경기에대한긍정적평가가증가했으나 계의지출전망과향후경기에대한낙관적기대가감소하면서전월(111.1) 과유사한 를기록 가 소매판매액지수및소비자심리지수 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 기준 =1) 소매판매액지수 ( 좌 ) 소비자심리지수 ( 우 )

8 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 설비투자 : 설비투자는반도체부문을중심으로양호한성장세를유지하는모습 월중설비투자지수는기계류(1.1%) 투자증가에기인하여전월(19.5%) 과유사한 18.7% 의높은증가율을기록 설비투자지수 ( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 월) 1.3 (5 월) 19.5 ( 월) 18.7 기계류( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 월) 21.1 (5 월).9 ( 월) 1.1 운송장비( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 월) -. (5 월) ( 월) 월중반도체제조용장비수입액증가율(17.5%) 이여전히높은수준을유지하면서, 반도체부문을중심으로한설비투자증가세는당분간지속될것으로판단됨. 반도체제조용장비수입액( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17 년 5 월) 33.1 ( 월) 2.8 (7 월) 17.5 기계류수입액( 전년동월대비, %): ( 17년 5 월) 21.8 ( 월) 19.9 (7 월) 3.5 설비투자지수 (3MA) 및반도체설비투자관련지표(3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 설비투자지수 ( 좌, 3MA) 반도체제조용장비수입액 ( 우, 3MA) 5

9 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설투자 : 건설기성증가율이둔화되고주택관련선행지표도하락하여건설투자의 양호한흐름이조정되고있음을시사 월중건설기성( 불변) 은건축부문의증가세가둔화되고토목부문의부진이심화되면 서전월(15.1%) 보다낮은.5% 증가 공종별로는건축부문이전월(22.5%) 보다낮은 17.8% 의증가율을기록한가운데, 토목부 문은전월(-2.8%) 보다감소폭이확대된 15.9% 의증가율을기록 건설수주, 주택인허가및착공등건설투자관련선행지표들은주택부문을중심으로 작년하반기이후의부진을지속하는모습 건설수주는토목(39.8%) 이크게증가하였음에도불구하고, 건축부문이 9.% 하락하면서 전체적으로는.% 감소함. 주택인허가는경기도를중심으로 25.% 감소하였으며, 착공은금년상반기의하락세가 지속되면서 17.8% 감소함. 건설기성액 (3MA) 과국내건설수주액 (3MA) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 건설기성액 ( 좌, 3MA) 건설수주액 ( 우, 3MA)

10 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 수출 : 수출은전반적으로높은증가세를지속하고있으나, 반도체와선박을제외할경우 증가세가빠르게둔화되고있는것으로판단됨. 7 월중수출액은선박이일시적으로크게증가한데기인하여전월(13.%) 보다증가 폭이확대된 19.5% 증가하며양호한흐름을지속 품목별로는수요와단가의증가세가유지됨에따라반도체(57.8%) 가높은증가세를지속 한가운데선박(28.2%) 이일시적으로크게증가 * 총수출( 전년동기대비, %): ( 17년 1/) 1.7 (2/) 1.8 (7 월) 19.5 다만, 반도체와선박을제외한수출금액은 2.8% 증가하는데그치며증가세가둔화 * 반도체 선박제외수출( 전년동기대비, %): ( 17년 1/) 12.5 (2/).8 (7 월) 2.8 한편, 2/ 분기중수출물량지수는반도체(2.%) 의양호한흐름에도불구하고 2.8% 의 증가율을기록하며, 물량기준으로수출증가세가둔화되고있음을시사 * 수출물량지수 ( 전년동기대비, %): ( 1년 /) 1.1 ( 17년 1/). (2/) 2.8 수입은주요에너지자원과자본재를중심으로 1.5% 의높은증가율을기록 가공단계별로 1차산품은 13.7% 증가하여전월(31.5%) 에비해증가폭이축소되었으나, 자본재는반도체제조용장비를중심으로 31.8% 증가하며최근의증가세를지속 무역수지는전년동월(75.1 억달러) 보다증가한 1.5억달러의흑자를기록 총수출(3MA) 과선박제외수출(3MA) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 총수출 (3MA) 선박제외수출 (3MA) 반도체, 선박제외수출 (3MA) 7

11 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 월중국제수지 경상수지는상품수지의흑자폭이축소되고서비스수지의적자폭이확대되면서 전년동월 (12.9 억달러) 보다흑자폭이크게축소된 7.1억달러를기록 상품수지는큰폭의수입(18.%) 증가세가지속됨에따라전년동월(128.3 억달러) 보다흑자폭이축소된 97.1억달러의흑자를기록 서비스수지는중국인관광객(-73.%) 이크게감소하면서여행수지적자(-7.억달러 억달러) 가확대된데주로기인하여적자폭이전년동월(-13.1 억달러) 보다 확대된 28.1억달러를기록 본원소득수지는배당소득수지악화등에기인하여흑자폭이전년동월(1.9 억달러) 보다축소된 5.5 억달러를기록하였고, 이전소득수지는적자폭이전년동월(-5.2 억달 러) 보다소폭축소된 -.3억달러를기록 계절조정경상수지(3MA) 와교역조건(3MA) 15 ( 억달러, 3 개월이동평균 ) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 계절조정경상수지 ( 좌, 3MA) 교역조건 ( 우, 3MA) 금융계정은전월(25.8 억달러) 보다확대된 87.2억달러의순자산증가를기록 직접투자는내국인의해외투자가증가하면서전월(.7 억달러) 보다확대된 12.7억 달러를기록 증권투자는내국인의해외증권투자가감소하면서전월(55.3 억달러) 보다축소된 29.1 억달러를기록 기타투자는전월(-32.8 억달러) 의감소에서증가(9.8 억달러) 로전환 8

12 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 노동시장 : 제조업에서의고용부진이완화되고있으나, 서비스업에서는취업자증가폭이 크게축소되면서전반적인고용개선이지연되고있음. 월중취업자는전년동월대비 3.1 만명(1.1%) 이증가하여전월(37.5 만명, 1.%) 보다 증가폭이축소됨. 산업별로는제조업(-2.5 만명 1. 만명) 에서취업자증가폭이감소에서증가로전환되었으나, 서비스업(23.3 만명 11. 만명) 에서는기저효과등으로증가폭이크게축소됨. 종사상지위별로는상용직(33.7 만명 31. 만명) 과자영업자 (5.1만명.1 만명) 의증가폭이 축소되었으며, 일용직(13. 만명 5.9 만명) 의증가폭도큰폭으로축소됨. 계절조정경제활동참가율 (2.8% 2.9%) 은전월대비.1%p 상승하였으며, 계절 조정고용률은전월과동일한 판단됨..5% 를기록하는등고용개선속도가완만한것으로 계절조정실업률은전월대비.2%p 상승한 3.8% 를기록 15~세의계절조정고용률은전월과동일한.5% 를기록 주요산업별취업자증감 ( 전년동월대비, 천명 ) 전산업서비스업제조업 9

13 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 물가 : 7월중소비자물가는지난해한시적전기료인하의기저효과등일시적인요인에 주로기인하여전월(1.9%) 보다상승한 2.2% 의상승률을기록 상품물가는전월(1.8%) 보다상승한 2.7% 의상승률을기록 농축수산물가격은채소등농산물가격 (7.% 9.8%) 이상승함에따라전월(7.%) 보다 높은 8.% 상승 공업제품가격은석유류가격 (2.8%.5%) 의상승폭이축소되며전월(.9%) 보다하락한.7% 의상승률을기록 전기 수도 가스는지난해한시적전기료인하에의한기저효과로전월(-1.%) 의하락 에서상승으로전환하여 8.% 상승 서비스물가는전월과동일한 1.9% 의상승률을보임. 농산물및석유류제외근원물가는전월(1.%) 보다높은 1.8% 상승한반면, 식료품 및에너지제외근원물가는전월과동일한 1.5% 의상승률을기록 아파트매매가격은전월과동일한전월대비.2% 상승한반면, 아파트전세가격은 전월(.1%) 보다낮은전월대비.% 의상승률을기록 소비자물가추이및부문별기여도 3 ( 전년동기대비, %, %p) 농축수산물공업제품서비스 전기 수도 가스소비자물가근원물가 주: 부문별. 기여도의합은반올림으로총지수의증감률과일치하지않을수있음 1

14 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 금융시장 : 국내금융시장은전반적으로안정된모습을보이는가운데, 년과유사한폭으로증가 가계대출은작 원/ 달러환율은미국의금리인상속도가점진적일것으로예상됨에따라하락세를나타 내어 7월말 1,119.원을기록 국고채금리 (3 년) 는안정된모습을유지하여 7월말 1.72% 를기록 종합주가지수는외국인의순매도에도불구하고 하여전월말(2,391.8) 대비.5% 상승한 2,2.7을기록 2분기기업실적이개선된데주로기인 한편, 월중은행가계대출은주택담보대출을중심으로증가세가지속됨. 가계대출( 기간중증가, 조원): ( 1년 월) 3.1 ( 15년 월) 8.1 ( 1년 월).5 ( 17년 5 월).3 ( 17년 월).2 주택담보대출 ( 기간중증가, 조원): ( 1년 월) 2. ( 15년 월).8 ( 1년 월).8 ( 17년 5 월) 3.8 ( 17년 월).3 환율및주가 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 ( 원 ) 원 / 달러 ( 좌 ) KOSPI( 우 ) 2,5 2, 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 11

15 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 세계경제 : 선진국의정책관련불확실성이여전히높은상황이나, 세계경제는회복세가 확대되는움직임을보이고있음. 세계교역량이신흥국을중심으로크게확대되고주요경기선행지수의상승세도 지속되는등실물경제전반이대체로양호한상태 세계산업생산과교역량세계제조업심리지수와 OECD+NME 선행지수 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 5 ( 기준 =5) ( 기준 =1) 세계산업생산 세계교역량 세계 PMI( 좌 ) OECD+NME 선행지수 ( 우 ) 선진국경제는내수및제조업심리지표가개선세를유지하면서경기회복에대한 기대가높아지고있으며, 신흥국도해외수요확대로수출과생산증가세가지속 주요선진국의제조업심리지수 주요신흥국의수출 ( 기준 =5) ( 전년동기대비, %, 3 개월이동평균 ) 미국 ISM 제조업 유로존제조업 PMI 인도러시아브라질 12

16 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 미국경제는정책불확실성이지속되고있으나, 생산과설비투자, 수출증가등에힘 입어성장세가다시확대됨. 민간소비(2.8%) 증가세가확대되고주택건설을제외한대부분의투자지표가높은증가 율을유지하면서 2/ 분기성장률은전분기(1.2%) 보다높은 2.%( 전기대비연율) 를기록 미국의민간소비와설비투자 미국의산업생산과수출 ( 전기대비연율, %) 3 ( 전년동기대비, %) III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 민간소비 ( 좌 ) 설비투자 ( 우 ) 산업생산 ( 좌 ) 수출 ( 우 ) 유로존경제는내수와수출등대부분의실물지표가개선추세를유지하면서경기회 복세가완만하게확대되고있음. 5 월중산업생산(.%) 과수출(12.9%) 이확대되고소매판매도 2% 중반의증가세를 유지한반면, 소비자물가(7 월: 1.3%) 는에너지가격을중심으로상승세가둔화됨. 유로존의산업생산과소매판매 유로존의수출과소비자물가 5 ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 ( 좌 ) 소비자물가 ( 우 ) 13

17 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 일본경제는민간소비가양호한흐름을보인가운데수출도비교적높은증가세를 유지하면서경기전반이완만하게개선되고있음을시사 월중소매판매(2.1%) 는자동차부문을중심으로증가세가유지되었고, 수출은기계류와 중국수출이확대되면서 9.7% 의높은증가율을기록 일본의산업생산과소매판매 일본의수출과수입 9 ( 전년동기대비, %) 2 ( 전년동기대비, %) 산업생산 소매판매 수출 수입 중국경제는생산및소비관련지표와수출이확대되고심리지수도상승하면서실물 경기둔화우려가완화된것으로평가 월에도소매판매(11.%) 와수출(11.3%) 증가세가지속됨에따라 2/분기성장률은 전분기에이어.9% 를기록 중국의산업생산및소매판매 중국의고정자산투자와수출 1 ( 전년동기대비, %) ( 전년동기대비, %) 1 ( 전년동기대비, %, 3개월이동평균 ) 산업생산 소매판매 고정자산투자 ( 좌 ) 수출 ( 우 ) 1

18 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 7월중국제유가는일부 OPEC 국가의원유공급축소, 미국의원유재고감소와 생산량전망치하향조정, 달러화약세등의영향으로배럴당 5달러내외로상승 유가와기초금속가격이상승하면서주요상품가격지수도큰폭의상승세로전환 다만, 현재국제유가가예상보다는낮은수준에머물면서 217~18 년유가전망치(5 달러 초반) 는소폭하향조정되는추세 ( 달러 / 배럴 ) 7 유가와 CRB지수주요원자재가격 (197=1) ( 전월대비, %) Dubai( 좌 ) CRB( 우 ) 15-9 소맥 옥수수 알루미늄 납 아연 주석 구리 Dubai 니켈 주: 원자재가격은 7 월중( 기말기준) 증가율임. 한편, 세계경제는미국등일부선진국의성장률이예상보다낮아지겠지만, 유로존과 중국을중심으로회복세를유지할것으로판단됨. IMF는 1/분기의성장세둔화와정책불확실성등을반영하여미국의 217~18 년성장률 전망치를하향조정한반면, 유로존과중국경제는각각내수회복과재정확대로당초예상 보다높은성장률을기록할것으로전망 주요국의 217~18 년도경제성장률전망(IMF) (%) 세계미국유로존일본영국중국인도러시아 217년 년 자료 : IMF, World Economic Outlook, July

19 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국제금융시장 : 미국의금리인상속도가완만해질가능성이제기되고, 표도개선됨에따라국제금융시장은비교적안정적인모습 주요국의실물지 유럽내통화긴축우려로선진국의장기금리가상승세를보인가운데, 미국의금리인상이불확실해지면서유로화와신흥국통화는달러대비강세기조를유지 주요국장기금리 달러화대비주요국의통화절상률 3. (%) (%) 미국독일일본 -2 러시아 터키 인도네시아 남아공 중국 인도 영국 일본 싱가포르 멕시코 한국 유로존 브라질 주: 217년 월말대비 7 월말기준. 한편, 세계경제의회복세가완만하게확대되고기업경기및투자심리의개선추세가유지되면서주요국주가가상승하고변동성지수는낮은수준에머물러있음. 주요국의주가변화율 VIX지수와신흥시장채권지수 (%) 일본 인도네시아 유로존 대만 한국 러시아 미국 중국 인도 VIX( 좌 ) 신흥시장채권지수 ( 우 ) 3 주: 217년 월말대비 7 월말기준. 1

20 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 전문가경제전망설문조사(217 년 3/ 분기) 국내경제전문가들은우리경제가 217년에완만한회복세를유지하면서 2.9% 의성장률을기록한후, 218년에도비슷한수준의성장세를보일 것으로전망 경제전문가들은 217~18 년우리경제가지난 월에예상했던것보다높은 성장세를보일것으로평가 수출( 금액기준) 은세계경제가완만한회복세를유지하면서 217년에 1% 를상회하는높은증가세를보인후 218년에는 % 대중반으로낮 아질전망 경상수지흑자규모는 21 년에비해축소되겠지만, 연간 75억달러내외의비 교적높은수준을기록할전망 소비자물가는 217년과 218년모두당초예상과거의비슷한 1.9% 의 상승률을기록할전망 한편, 대부분의응답자들은기준금리가 217년하반기까지현재수준이유 지된후 218년부터점차인상될것으로전망 217~18 년우리경제에대한전문가설문조사결과 (%, 억달러, 만명) 조사시점 1) GDP 수출 2) 경상수지실업률취업자수 3) 소비자물가 217 년 1/분기 년 2/분기 217 년 3/분기 2. [2.7] 2.9 [2.8] 9. [5.7] 11.8 [.5] 81 [72] 782 [738] 3.9 [3.7] 3.8 [3.7] 31 [31] 35 [3] 주: 1) 국내경제전망전문가를대상으로각각금년 1 월, 월, 7 월말에설문조사를실시. 2) 통관기준자료. 3) 전년동기대비증감. ) [ ] 안은 218 년전망치. 2. [1.9] 1.9 [1.9] 17

21 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Summary and Assessment The Korean economy exhibits a slightly weakening recovery lately, following the improvement trend seen after the Q last year. The mining and manufacturing production recorded a negative growth, particularly in manufacturing, pointing to a weak improvement in industrial production. June s all industry production growth continued to trend down since March and its seasonally adjusted MOM growth also slid. Services production also shows little momentum to support an overall recovery. Facilities investment maintained an improvement led by the semiconductor industry, but other sectors exhibited an adjustment in demand growth. Construction investment posted an adjustment in the favorable conditions seen during the past 1-2 years while exports, excluding semiconductors and vessels, exhibited a slow growth. Private consumption, including overseas consumption, showed relatively stable growth but the retail sales growth more related to domestic economic condition exhibited a gradual decrease. Meanwhile, the leading composite index continued to improve and the consumer sentiment index remained favorable, suggesting that expectations of an economic recovery still run high. All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an English translation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguities or discrepancies. 18

22 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Economic Activity: Services production sustained modest growth while that in mining and manufacturing production and shipments slowed, dragging the overall improvement in economic activity. June s all industry production recorded a 1.5% growth, down from last month (2.%) as mining and manufacturing production swung to a decrease. Services production recorded a 2.% growth, down from last month (2.3%), due to the base effect, but maintained a moderate growth of.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Mining and manufacturing production reversed last month s increase (.2%) to a decrease (-.3%) as semiconductor production plummeted (-12.%) amid continued sluggishness in motor vehicles (-2.5%) and other transport equipment (-13.2%). Meanwhile, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate remained stagnant at 71.3%, down from last month s 71.%. Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA) and Service Production Index (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Mining and Manufacturing Production Index (3MA) Service Production Index (3MA) Manufacturing shipments recorded an increased growth of.1% from last month (-1.1%) led by export shipments while the inventory-to-shipments ratio turned downward. Manufacturing shipments maintained a modest growth (.8%), but export shipments remained in a slump (-1.%). The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio decreased to 118.2% from last month (125.5%) on a rapid decrease in semiconductor inventory (-7.1%). 19

23 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Shipment Index (3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) (%) Manufacturing Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Manufacturing Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right) The cyclical component of the coincident composite index registered 1., down from last month (1.8), on decreases in the value of construction completed and the mining and manufacturing production index. The cyclical component of the leading composite index registered 11.5, an inch up from last month (11.2), on increases in the consumer expectations index and KOSPI. Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices 12. (Base=1) Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index 2

24 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Consumption: Retail sales growth stood low while consumer sentiment remained similar to last month. June s retail sales recorded a 1.% growth, down from last month (1.5%). By item, durable goods, mainly home appliances and communication devices, rose 1.%. Non-durable goods ascended 1.8% while semi-durable goods lost 2.%. On a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, the retail sales growth turned to a 1.1% increase from last month s decrease (-1.1%). Services production posted sluggish performance in wholesale and retail trade (.%) and accommodation and food services (-.%), while arts, sports and recreation related services diminished (-2.%), reversing the recent favorable conditions. Meanwhile, domestic consumption indicators exhibited a moderating growth in the first half, but as net consumption abroad surged, the private consumption in national accounts increased at a modest rate. The travel account, as a reference for net overseas consumption, ran a huge deficit throughout the first half, with the 2Q posting a 155.% increase in deficit due to a drop in Chinese tourists in Korea. * Travel account deficit (1 trillion won)[yoy, %]: 1Q, 17:.3[81.] 2Q:.5[155.] July s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) marked 111.2, similar to last month (111.1), as the positive sentiment in current living standards and domestic economic conditions rose; but that in household spending and future domestic economic conditions retreated. Retail Sales Index and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (Year-on-Year % Change) (Base=1) Retail Sales Index (left) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right) 21

25 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Facilities Investment: Facilities investment continued to show strong growth led by semiconductors. June s equipment investment index recorded a 18.7% growth, similar to last month (19.5%), on increased investment in machinery (1.1%). Equipment investment index (YoY, %): (Apr. 17) 1.3 (May) 19.5 (Jun.) 18.7 Machinery (YoY, %): (Apr. 17) 21.1 (May).9 (Jun.) 1.1 Transport equipment (YoY, %): (Apr. 17) -. (May) (Jun.) June s imports (amount basis) of semiconductor manufacturing equipment maintained a still high growth rate (2.8% 17.5%), implying that the upward trend in facilities investment led by semiconductors will continue for some time. Imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (YoY, %): (May 17) 33.1 (Jun.) 2.8 (Jul.) 17.5 Imports of machinery (YoY, %): (May 17) 21.8 (Jun.) 19.9 (Jul.) 3.5 Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Indexes Related to Semiconductor Facility Investment (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Equip. Investment Index(left, 3MA) Semicon. Manufac. Equip.(right, 3MA) 22

26 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Construction Investment: The value of construction completed exhibited a slow growth and housing-related leading indicators declined, pointing to an adjustment in favorable conditions for construction investment. June s value of construction completed (constant) recorded a.5% growth, down from last month (15.1%) as growth in the building construction sector slowed and the civil engineering sector deteriorated further. By sector, building construction exhibited a reduced growth of 17.8% from last month (22.5%) while civil engineering recorded (-2.8%). 15.9%, lower than last month Leading indicators such as construction orders received, housing permits and starts continue to trend down since the second half of last year. Construction orders received retreated.% due to the setback in the building construction sector (9.%) although the civil engineering advanced significantly (39.8%). Housing permits descended 25.%, mainly in Gyeonggi province, and housing starts retreated 17.8% following the downward trend in the first half. Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Construction Ordered Received (3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) Value of Construction Completed (left, 3MA) Construction Orders Received (right, 3MA) 23

27 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Exports: Exports maintained high growth rates overall, but they grew less, excluding semiconductors and vessels. July s export growth (amount basis) rose to 19.5%, up from last month (13.%) on a temporary surge in vessel exports, continuing the upward trend. By item, semiconductors (57.8%) continued to rapidly trend up on sustained increases in demand as unit prices, and vessels (28.2%) soared temporarily. * Total exports (YoY,%): (1Q 17) 1.7 (2Q) 1.8 (Jul.) 19.5 Meanwhile, export growth, (amount basis) excluding semiconductors and vessels, recorded a smaller increase of 2.8%. * Exports, excluding semiconductors and vessels (YoY,%): (1Q 17) 12.5 (2Q)).8 (Jul.) 2.8 Meanwhile, the export volume index (price factors controlled) exhibited a 2.8% growth despite the favorable trend in semiconductors (2.%), implying that export growth has continued to trend down even on a volume basis. * Export volume index (YoY, %): (Q 1) 1.1 (1Q 17). (2Q) 2.8 Imports exhibited a high growth of 1.5% led by key energy resources and capital goods. By stage-of-processing, primary products showed a slower growth of 13.7% than last month (31.5%), but capital goods continued the recent growth of 31.8%, led by semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Trade balance ran an increased surplus of $1.5 billion, higher than last year ($7.51 billion). Exports (3MA) and Exports except for Vessel (3MA) and Exports except for Vessel, Semiconductor (3MA) 2 (Year-on-Year, % change, 3MA) Exports (3MA) Exports except for Vessel (3MA) Exports except for Vessel, Semiconductor (3MA) 2

28 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 June s Balance of Payments The current account recorded a reduced surplus of $7.1 billion from last year ($12.9 billion), influenced by a decreased surplus in the goods account and an increased deficit in the services account. The goods account recorded a decreased surplus of $9.71 billion from last year ($12.83 billion) as imports (18.%) continued to rapidly expand. The services account recorded a sharply increased deficit (-$2.81 billion) from last year (-$1.31 billion), mainly influenced by an increased deficit in the travel account (-$.7 billion -$1.39 billion) on a sharp drop (-73.%) in Chinese tourists in Korea. The primary income account recorded a decreased surplus of $.55 billion from last year ($1.9 billion) due to exacerbated dividend payments while the secondary income account recorded a slightly decreased deficit of $.3 billion (-$.52 billion). Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA) 15 (Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA) (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA) The financial account recorded a $8.72 billion increase in net assets, up from last month ($2.58 billion). Direct investment marked $1.27 billion, up from last month ($.7 billion) on increased outbound investment. Portfolio investment marked $2.91 billion, down from last month ($5.53 billion) on decreases in outbound investment in stocks. Other investments marked $.98 billion, a reversal from last month (-$3.28 billion). 25

29 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Labor Market: Employment growth in manufacturing improved slightly, but that in services slid sharply, delaying the improvement in overall employment. June s employment growth posted 31, (1.1%), slightly down from last month (375,, 1.%). By industry, manufacturing turned to an increase (-25, 1,), but services exhibited a sharply reduced growth (233, 11,) due to the base effect. By occupational status, regular workers (337, 31,) and the self-employed (51, 1,) grew less while daily workers decreased rapidly (13, 59,). On a seasonally adjusted basis, the labor force participation rate ascended by.1%p (2.8% 2.9%) while the employment rate remained the same (.5%) as last month, pointing to a moderate pace of employment improvement. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate recorded 3.8%, up by last month..2%p from The seasonally adjusted employment rate of those aged 15- recorded.5%, the same as last month. Changes in the Number of Employed Persons by sectors (Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) All sectors Serveice sector Manufacturing sector 2

30 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 CPI: July s headline CPI inflation stood at 2.2%, higher than last month (1.9%) largely influenced by temporary factors such as the base effect from tentative cuts in electricity prices last year. Commodity prices rose 2.7%, up from last month (1.8%). Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 8.% from last month (7.%) on increased prices (7.% 9.8%) of agricultural products such as vegetables. Industrial goods prices rose.7%, slightly lower than last month (.9%) while prices of petroleum products increased less (2.8%.5%). Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) reversed last month s decrease (-1.% 8.%) due to the base effect from the temporary cut in electricity prices last year. Services prices rose 1.9%, the same as last month. Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, rose 1.8% from last month (1.%), and that excluding food and energy stood at 1.5%, the same as last month. Prices of apartment purchases rose.2%, the same as last month while those of jeonse rose.%, lower than last month (.1%). CPI Change and Contribution by Sector 3 Agricultural Service CPI (Year-on-Year, %, %p) Manufacturing Electricity, water, and gas Core CPI Note: The sum of sector-by-sector contributions is rounded off to the nearest integer, which may be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index. 27

31 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Financial Market: The domestic financial market remained stable while household loans continued to rise at a similar pace as last year. As of end-july, the dollar/won exchange rate slid to 1,119. won on expectations of a moderation in the US rate hike. The government bond yields (3-year) remained stable at 1.72%. The KOSPI gained.5% from end-june (2,391.8) to close at 2,2.7 in July on improved corporate earnings in 2Q despite net foreign selling. Meanwhile, June posted a continued increase in bank s household loans, mostly mortgages. Bank s household loans (change, trillion won): (Jun. 1) 3.1 (Jun. 15) 8.1 (Jun. 1).5 (May 17).3 (Jun. 17).2 Bank s mortgage loans (change, trillion won): (Jun. 1) 2. (Jun. 15).8 (Jun. 1).8 (May 17) 3.8 (Jun. 17).3 Exchange Rates and Stock Price Index 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 (won) ,5 2, 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 KRW/USD (left) KOSPI (right) 28

32 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 World Economy: The global economy shows more signs of recovery although policy uncertainties in advanced economies still run high. World trade volume expanded significantly in emerging markets and leading economic indicators continued to trend up, implying that the overall conditions in the real economy are favorable. World Industrial Production and Trade (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) World PMI and OECD+NME Leading Indicator (Base=5) (Base=1) World Industrial Production World Trade World PMI (left) OECD+NME Leading Indicator (right) Advanced economies showed continued improvements in domestic demand and manufacturing sentiment indices, raising expectations for an economic recovery, while emerging markets posted a continued growth in production and exports thanks to increased overseas demand. Manufacturing Indices in the US and Eurozone (Base=5) Exports in india, Russia, and Brazil (Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA) US ISM Eurozone PMI India Russia Brazil 29

33 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 The US saw lingering policy uncertainties but gained higher growth rate on the increases in production, facilities equipment and exports. 2Q growth gained 2.% (annualized YoY basis) from last quarter (1.2%) as private consumption grew higher (2.8%) and most investment indicators, excluding residential building construction, continued on a fast pace. US Private Consumption and Equipment Investment (QoQ annualized rate, %) 3 US Industrial Production and Exports (Year-on-Year % Change) III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Private Consumption (left) Equipment Investment (right) Industrial Production (left) Exports (right) The Eurozone exhibited a gradual pickup in recovery as most real economy indicators such as domestic demand and exports continued to improve. May posted increases in industrial production (.%), exports (12.9%) and retail sales (mid-2% level) while the CPI growth slowed (July: 1.3%), led by energy prices. 5 Industrial Production and Retail Sales in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 Exports and CPI in Eurozone (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports (left) CPI (right) 3

34 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Japan maintained healthy conditions in private consumption with continued high growth in exports, pointing to a modest improvement in overall economic conditions. 9 June posted continued rises in retail sales (2.1%), mainly motor vehicles, and a rapid 9.7% growth in exports influenced by increases in machinery exports and exports to China. Japan's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) 2 Japan's Exports and Imports (Year-on-Year % Change) Industrial Production Retail Sales Exports Imports China exhibited increases in production and consumption-related indicators and sentiment indices, implying that concerns over the slowing real economy are easing. 2Q growth recorded.9%, the same as last quarter, as retail sales (11.%) and exports (11.3%) continued to expand in June. 1 China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Year-on-Year % Change) China's Fixed Asset Investment and Exports (YoY % Change) (YoY % Change, 3MA) Industrial Production Retail Sales Fixed Asset Investment (left) Exports (right) 31

35 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 In July, oil prices rose to around the $5 level per barrel influenced by the cut in the OPEC supply, reduced US oil inventories and a low output forecast and a weakening dollar. Major commodity price indices swung to an increase as oil and base metal prices advanced. Meanwhile, the projection of oil prices for was revised down slightly to the low $5 level, as oil prices remained lower than expected. Oil Price and CRB Index Prices of Key Raw Materials ($/barrel) 7 (197=1) (Month-on-Month % Change) Dubai (left) CRB (right) 15-9 Wheat Corn Aluminum Lead Zinc Tin Copper Dubai Nickel Note: Raw material prices as of July (end-month). Meanwhile, a few advanced economies including the US are projected to grow at a slower-than-expected pace. But, the global recovery pace will be sustained led by the Eurozone and China. The IMF revised down its US growth projection for , reflecting slow growth and policy uncertainties in 1Q, but it projected that the Eurozone and China will show a higher growth than initially anticipated due to recovering domestic demand and an expansionary fiscal stance. IMF Economic Outlook for Major Countries for (%) World US Eurozone Japan China India Brazil Russia Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, July

36 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 Global Financial Markets: Global financial markets remained relatively stable due to possibilities of a moderation in the US rate hike and improvements in real indicators in major countries. Amid the increasing long-term interest rates in advanced economies on concerns over a monetary tightening in Europe, the US rate hike has become an unlikely possibility. Thus, the euro and emerging market currencies remain strong against the dollar. 3. Long-Term Interest Rates in the US, Germany, and Japan (%) Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD (%) US Germany Japan -2 Russia Turkey Indonesia South Africa China India UK Japan Note: End-June vs End-July Meanwhile, major countries stock prices rose and volatility indices remained low as the global economic recovery gradually gains momentum and business and investment sentiments continue to improve. Changes in Stock Prices (%) VIX and Emerging Market Bond Index 25 Singapore Mexico Korea Eurozone Brazil Japan Indonesia Eurozone Taiwan Korea Russia US China India VIX (left) EMBI (right) 3 Note: End-June vs End-July 33

37 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) (3rd Quarter of 217) Domestic forecasters expect that the Korean economy will grow at a modest pace of 2.9% in 217 and similar in Q survey growth projections for were upwardly adjusted from April. Exports (amount) are expected to grow at above 1% in 217 amid the continued modest global recovery and moderate slightly to the mid-% level in 218. The current account is expected to run a relatively large surplus of $75. billion this year, although it is smaller than 21. Headline CPI is projected to stand at 1.9% in 217 and 218, as initially expected. Meanwhile, most experts projected that the base rate will stay unchanged from the current level until the second half of 217 and rise slowly from 218. KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters 217~218 (%, $1 million, 1 thousand persons) Time of Survey 1) GDP Exports 2) Current Account Unemployment Rate Number of Employed 3) Headline CPI 1Q Q [2.7] 9. [5.7] 81 [72] 3.9 [3.7] 31 [31] 2. [1.9] 3Q [2.8] 11.8 [.5] 782 [738] 3.8 [3.7] 35 [3] 1.9 [1.9] Note: 1) Conducted surveys of domestic professional forecasters in late Jan., Apr. and Jul ) Customs-cleared basis. 3) Year-on-year change. ) Figures in [ ] are 218 estimates. 3

38 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 경제동향주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

39 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 국내총생산및국내총소득 (21 년불변가격 ) 민간소비및고정투자(21 년불변가격) GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 8 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 2 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ 1 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ 민간소비 (Private Consumption) 설비투자 (Facilities Investment) 국내총생산 (GDP) 국내총소득 (GDI) 건설투자 (Construction Investment) 상품및서비스수출(21 년불변가격) 상품및서비스수입(21 년불변가격) Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services (at 21 Constant Prices) (at 21 Constant Prices) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) 15 ( 전년동기대비,% / Year-on-Year % Change) Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ -5 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ 상품수출 (Exports of Goods) 서비스수출 (Exports of Services) 상품수입 (Imports of Goods) 서비스수입 (Imports of Services) 3

40 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 1. 국내총생산(21 년불변가격) Gross Domestic Product (at 21 Constant Prices) GDP 민간소비 Private Consumption 설비투자 Facilities Investment 국내총생산 건설투자 Construction Investment 총수출 Total Export 총수입 Total Import ( 조원, Trillion Won) 국내총소득 Gross Domestic Income 213 1, , , , , , p 1, , Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ p Ⅱ p Ⅲ p Ⅳ p Ⅰ p Ⅱ p 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year p Ⅲ 3.2(.9) 1.9( 1.2) 2.3( 3.5) 7.5(-1.) 2.5(-.1).9(.).2(.9) Ⅳ 3.5(.9) 2.2(.7) 11.7( 3.7) 3.5(-2.) 3.1(.9) 5.( 2.2).3(.7) 21 Ⅰ 3.8( 1.) 2.8(.5) 7.5(-.8).5( 3.) 3.5(.9) 2.7(-1.2).7( 1.2) Ⅱ 3.5(.) 1.7(-.5) 8.( 1.).3(.) 2.8(.8) 2.( 1.) 3.7(.7) Ⅲ 3.(.7) 1.(.8).3(.1) 2.3(-.1) 1.3(-1.2) 1.7(-.3) 3.(.2) Ⅳ 2.7(.) 1.(.3).2( 3.2) -1.7(-.9).7(.2) -.(.) 3.7( 1.) 215 Ⅰ 2.(.8) 1.5(.9) 5.(.3).( 9.) -.5(-.3).9(.1).3( 3.) Ⅱ 2.(.) 1.7(-.3).3(.8).( 1.) -1.(-.2).(.7).5(.9) Ⅲ 3.( 1.3) 2.2( 1.3).( 1.9) 7.( 2.1) -.(.1) 2.( 1.2) 7.2(.9) Ⅳ 3.2(.7) 3.( 1.5) 3.1(.) 9.(-2.2) 1.7( 2.1) 5.( 2.9).3(.8) 21 Ⅰ p 2.9(.5) 2.3(-.1) -.(-7.) 9.( 7.) 1.3(-.) 3.(-1.5) 5.7( 3.) Ⅱ p 3.(.9) 3.5(.8) -2.9( 2.) 1.( 3.1) 2.( 1.).8( 2.2).7(-.1) Ⅲ p 2.(.5) 2.7(.) -3.9(.9) 11.2( 2.2) 3.( 1.).5( 2.) 3.3(-.5) Ⅳ p 2.(.5) 1.5(.2) 2.( 5.9) 11.(-1.2) 1.2(-.1) 3.3(-.1) 3.1(.8) 217 Ⅰ p 2.9( 1.1) 2.(.) 1.(.) 11.3(.8) 3.9( 2.1) 9.9(.8) 2.( 2.) Ⅱ p 2.7(.) 2.2(.9) 17.2( 5.1) 8.9( 1.) -.1(-3.).5(-1.) 2.9(.) 주 : 1) p 는잠정치. 2) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행. Note: 1) p is preliminary. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea. 37

41 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 생산지수 Production Indices 출하지수및재고지수 Shipment and Inventory Indices 8 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 9 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 전산업생산지수 (All Industry Prod. Index) 광공업생산지수 (Mining and Manufac. Prod. Index) 서비스업생산지수 (Service Prod. Index) 출하지수 (Shipment Index) 재고지수 (Inventory Index) 경기종합지수순환변동치한국은행 BSI 제조업실적및전망(S.A.) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 12 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 85 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 동행지수순환변동치 (Composite Coincident Index) 선행지수순환변동치 (Composite Leading Index) BSI 제조업실적 (BSI Manufac. Tendency) BSI 제조업전망 (BSI Manufac. Future Tendency) 38

42 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 2. 경기 Economic Activity 전산업 2) All Industry Production 생산지수 Production Indices 광공업 3) Mining and Manufacturing Production 서비스업 Service Production 생산자제품 Producer's Product 출하 Shipment 재고 Inventory 경기종합지수순환변동치 1) Cyclical Component of Economic Indices 동행지수 Composite Coincident Index 선행지수 Composite Leading Index ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 한국은행 BSI 1) ( 제조업, 계절조정) BOK BSI (Manufacturing, S.A.) 실적 Tendency 전망 Future Tendency 제조업평균가동률 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Ⅱ 1. (-.1) -.8 (-.5) 2.8 (.3) -. (-.).9 ( 2.9) Ⅲ 2.5 ( 1.8). ( 1.8) 2.9 ( 1.2) 1.3 ( 2.1) 7.1 ( 3.2) Ⅳ 2.7 (.3). (-1.) 3.3 ( 1.2). (-.7) 3.3 (-.) Ⅰ 2.1 (.2) -.3 (-.) 2.8 (.2) -.8 (-1.) 3.1 ( 3.) Ⅱ 3.2 ( 1.3).7 ( 1.) 3.5 ( 1.1) 1.2 ( 2.1) -2. (-2.3) Ⅲ 3. (.9).5 (.1) 3. ( 1.) -.1 (-.3) -7.8 (-3.2) Ⅳ 3.5 (.) 2.8 (.) 2.1 (-.3) 2. ( 1.2) -5.8 (-3.1) Ⅰ 3.9 ( 1.3) 3.7 ( 1.) 2. (.9) 3. (.5) -5. ( 2.7) Ⅱ p 2. (-.). (-2.3) 2.3 (.5) -.1 (-1.9) -2. ( 1.) (-1.5) -2.2 (-1.8) 2.8 (-1.) -3.9 (-3.).5 ( 2.1) ( 1.2) 2.3 ( 2.) 3.2 (.7).7 ( 1.8) 3.9 ( 1.) (.) -.5 (-1.1) 2.5 (-.1).7 ( 1.7) 3.1 (-.1) (-.5) -2.7 (-.) 2. (.5) -1.7 (-1.1) -.8 (-2.1) ( 1.8). ( 3.5) 3. (.3) 3.8 ( 2.). (.1) (.1).9 (-1.1).9 (.) 1. (-.3) -2. (-.) (.5) 1.5 ( 1.1) 3.2 (.).7 (.1) -.9 (-2.8) (-.) 2.2 (-2.3). (.3) 1.7 (-1.) -5.3 (.) (.1) -2. (.7) 2.9 (-.3) -2. (.) -7.8 (-.8) (-.) -1.2 (-.9) 2. (-.5) -1.9 (-.) -.2 (.) ( 1.) 5. ( 3.1) 2. (.3).7 ( 2.8) -. (-1.1) (.3).3 (-.) 1.9 (.5).7 (.5) -5.8 (-2.) (.5) 1.3 ( 2.8) 2. (.2) 1. (.5) -5.8 ( 2.) (-.3).7 (-3.3) 2.5 (.3) 7.3 (-2.5) -. (.) ( 1.3) 3.3 ( 1.3) 2.8 (.3) 1.8 ( 1.2) -5. (.3) p 3.5 (-1.) 1.9 (-2.2) 2. (.1).5 (-2.3) -.8 ( 2.9) p 2. (-.2).2 (.2) 2.3 (-.2) -.7 (-.3) 1.3 ( 2.) p 1.5 (-.1) -.3 (-.2) 2. (.5).2 ( 2.1) -2. (-3.8) 주 : 1) 기준치=1. 2) 21~15 년연간지수는농림어업포함. 3) 광업, 제조업, 전기 가스업을포함. ) p 는잠정치( 한국은행 BSI 제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 한국은행. Note: 1) Base=1. 2) Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors is included for annual index in 21~15. 3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry. ) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea. 39

43 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 민간소비( 소비재) 와소매판매액지수유형별소매판매액지수 Private Consumption (Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods Sales Index 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 25 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 민간소비 ( 소비재 ) (Private Comsumption (Consumer Goods)) 소매판매액지수 (Retail Sales Index) 내구재 (Durable goods) 준내구재 (Semi-durable goods) 비내구재 (Non-durable goods) 소비재출하지수및소비재수입액 Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Goods Import 소비자동향조사 Consumer Survey 2 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 112 ( 기준 =1 / Base=1) 소비재출하 (Consumer Goods Shipment Index) 소비재수입 (Consumer Goods Import) 소비자심리지수 (Composite Consumer Sentiment Index) 소비지출전망 (Prospective Household Spending)

44 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 3. 소비 Consumption Retail Sales Index 소매판매액지수 유형별지수 by Group of Goods 비내구재준내구재 Non-durable Semidurable 내구재 Durable 승용차 Automobile 소비재출하 Consumer Goods Shipment Index 소비재수입 1) Consumer Goods Import ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 소비자심리지수 Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) 소비자동향조사 2) Consumer Survey 현재경기판단 Current Domestic Economic Conditions 향후경기전망 Prospective Domestic Economic Conditions 소비지출전망 Prospective Household Spending Ⅰ 2. ( 1.1) Ⅱ 1.2 (-.5) Ⅲ 2. ( 1.5) Ⅳ 2. (.1) Ⅰ 2. ( 1.) Ⅱ 3.9 (.7) Ⅲ 3. ( 1.1) Ⅳ.3 ( 2.9) Ⅰ 5. (-.2) Ⅱ 5.9 ( 2.) Ⅲ 3.5 (-1.2) Ⅳ 2.5 ( 2.1) Ⅰ 1.9 (-.5) Ⅱ p 1.7 ( 1.2) (-2.1) ( 1.) (-3.3) (.2) (-.3) (-.) (-2.1) ( 3.2) (-.3) (.7) p 1.5 (-1.1) p 1. ( 1.1) p 주 : 1) 소비재수입액을전월의소비재수입물가지수로실질화. 2) 기준=1. 3) p 는잠정치( 단, 소비자동향조사는제외). ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 한국무역협회. Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index (consumer goods) of the previous month. 2) Base=1. 3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded). ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; Korea International Trade Association. 1

45 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 형태별설비투자지수 Equipment Investment Index by Type 설비투자지수와기계류내수출하지수 Equipment Investment Index and Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 기계류 (Machinery) 운송장비 (Transport Equipment) 설비투자지수 (Equipment Investment Index) 기계류내수출하지수 (Domestic Machinery Shipment Index) 자본재수입액과기계류수입액 Import of Capital Goods and Machinery Import 국내기계수주 Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 5 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 자본재수입액 (Import of Capital Goods) 기계류수입액 (Machinery Import) 총수주액 (Total) 민간수주액 (Private) 2

46 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1. 설비투자 Equipment Investment Equipment Investment Index 설비투자지수 기계류 Machinery 운송장비 Transport Equipment 기계류내수출하지수 1) Domestic Machinery Shipment Index 기계류수입액 2) Machinery Import Domestic Machinery Orders Received ( 십억원, Billion Won, 21=1) 국내기계수주 3) 공공 Public 민간 Private ,71 25,53 1,921 23, ,988 2,171 2,27 23,5 21 Ⅱ ,97,818 57,28 Ⅲ ,273 5,82 7 5,212 Ⅳ ,51 7,9 1,17, Ⅰ ,53 8, ,59 Ⅱ ,33 9, , , 2, , ,19 2, , ,88 1,59 8 1, ,191 2,5 33 1, ,399 1, , ,81 2, , ,3 3, , ,33 2, , ,3 2,7 22 2, ,1 3, , ,383 2, ,58 5 p ,77 2, ,35 p ,273 3, 18 3,2 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year Ⅱ. ( 5.1) ( 7.) Ⅲ -.7 ( -1.9) ( -.2) Ⅳ 5.9 ( 8.) ( 2.) Ⅰ 18.1 ( 5.) (.9) Ⅱ 17.(.) ( 1.7) ( 3.) ( 18.1) ( -9.9) ( 18.1) (1.2) (-1.2) ( -1.) ( -.5) ( -.9) ( 8.1) (.) ( -8.1) ( 5.8) ( 18.3) ( 1.) (-38.) ( -8.5) ( 31.) (13.) ( -.2) ( -3.9) (.1) p 19.5 ( 1.8) (-1.2) p 18.7 ( 5.3) ( 27.7) 주 : 1) 선박제외. 2) 백만달러. 3) 선박제외, 21 년불변가격. ) p 는잠정치( 단, 기계류수입액은제외). 5) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 한국은행; 통계청; 무역협회. Note: 1) Vessels are excluded. 2) Million US Dollars. 3) Vessels are excluded, at 21 Constant Prices. ) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded). 5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association. 3

47 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 건설기성액( 불변가격) 및국내건설수주공사종류별건설기성액( 불변가격) Construction Completed (at 21 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type and Construction Orders Received (at 21 Constant Prices) 28 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 18 3 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 건설기성액 ( 좌 ) / Value of Cons. Completed (left) 국내건설수주 ( 우 ) / Cons. Orders Received (right) 건축 (Building) 토목 (Civil Engineering) 건축허가면적및건축착공면적 Building Construction Permits and Building Construction Initiated 주택인허가및미분양주택수 Housing Construction Permits and Number of Unsold Houses 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change) 1 ( 전년동기대비, % / Y-on-Y % Change) ( 전월비, 천호 / M-on-M Thousand Units) 건축허가면적 (Building Construction Permits) 건축착공면적 (Building Construction Initiated) 주택인허가 ( 좌 ) / Housing Construction Permits (left) 미분양 ( 우 ) / Num. of Unsold Houses (right) -1

48 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 INSIDabcdef_:MS_1MS_1 5. 건설투자 Construction Investment 건설기성액 1) Value of Construction Completed 합계 Total 공사종류별 By Type 건축 Building 토목 Civil Engineering 국내건설수주 Construction Orders Received 건축허가면적 Building Construction Permits ( 십억원, 천m2, 호, Billion Won, Thousand m2, Unit) 건축착공면적 Building Construction Initiated 주택인허가 Housing Construction Permits 미분양주택수 3) Number of Unsold Houses 215 9,13,23 3,12 13,93 189,8 152,18 75,328 1, ,85 75,7 33,237 15,82 178,955 13,8 72,8 5,13 21 Ⅱ 27,281 18,7 8,518 33,13 9,3, ,3 59,999 Ⅲ 2,722 18,98 7,813 3,97 3,258 35,82 1,23,7 Ⅳ 32, 22,38 9,58,811,31 39, 2,9 5, Ⅰ 2,92 19,51 7,177 3,5 38,59 28,59 11,1 1,79 Ⅱ p 3,799 23, 7,755 38,5 5,21 32,8 15,87 57, ,523,983 3,51 12,57 17,251 12,793 79,912 59, ,7,128 2,519 11,991 1,1 12,917 1,387 3, ,915,35 2,559 13,372 15,7 11,522 5,832 2,52 9 9,159,2 2,73 11,7 11,573 11,381 8,2,7 1 9,,752 2,9 1,819 1,37 11,797 52,38 57, ,23 7,3 2,899 12,53 15,593 15,325,833 57, ,381 8,271,11 19,28 15,81 11,88 89,225 5, ,82 5,827 2,1 8,551 12, 7,981 39,898 59, ,25,18 2,238 12,37 12,593 9,129 9,582 1,3 3 1,25 7,53 2,923 9,2 13,51 11,8 51,2 1,79 p 9,77 7,3 2,32 1,5 13, 1,251 3,58,313 5 p 9,817 7,38 2,3 11,381 15,12 1,37 53,511 5,859 p 11,25 8,22 2,979 12, 1,8 12,1 59,8 57,18 전년동기대비증가율 (%) Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year , ,99 21 Ⅱ 15.8( 2.3) ( -8.) ,15 Ⅲ 1.5(.2) ( 27.2) Ⅳ 17.7(.1) (-11.) , Ⅰ 17.9( 5.9) ( 2.) ,2 Ⅱ p 12.9(-1.) ( 1.) , ( 3.3) ( -9.5) , (-.2) ( 7.3) , ( 2.) ( 12.) (-1.) (-29.2) , ( 1.1) ( 23.9) , (.) (-18.) (-.) ( -.9) , (-1.9) ( 7.3) , ( 8.3) ( 31.8) , (3.5) (-2.1) p 18.9(-.5) ( 75.9) ,3 5 p 15.1(-1.) (-27.) ,5 p.5(-2.) (-19.) 주 : 1) 21 년불변가격. 2) p 는잠정치. 3) 전기대비증감( 천호). ) ( ) 는계절조정전기대비증가율. 자료 : 통계청; 국토교통부. Note: 1) At 21 Constant Prices. 2) p is preliminary. 3) Month-on-month number changes(thousand unit). ) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the previous period (S.A.). Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. 5