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승우 윤
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1 ... 연구총서 교통취약성개선을위한 국가교통예보시스템구축방안 A Preliminary Study on National Traffic Forecasting System Development to Cope with Transportation Vulnerability... 정연식외 5 인...

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17 xvii 통행속도 임계속도 통행속도 임계속도 통행속도 연평균통행속도

18 xviii 연평균통행속도 m ax m ax

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20 xx m ax m ax m ax 만일 등판불가능 만일 확률적으로등판가능 만일 등판가능 m ax m ax max

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88 50 통행속도 연평균통행속도 통행속도 연평균통행속도 통행속도

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90 52 cos sin cos max cos m ax sin m ax cos

91 53 m ax m ax m ax m ax m ax m ax m ax tan m ax m ax m ax

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144 ( 전체통행, n=924, 단위 : %) 26.6 24.2 22.3 14.

182 144 ( 전체통행, n=924, 단위 : %) 여가 / 오락 / 외식 / 친지방문 출퇴근 업무귀가쇼핑등하교기타

183 145 ( 전체통행, n=924, 단위 : %) 평균 77 분 분이하 31~60분 61~90분 91~120분 121~150분 151분이상

184 146 ( 전체통행, n=924, 단위 : %, 복수응답 ) 목적까지의경로정보 목적지위치정보 소통정보 주차정보 이용하지않음 ( 전체통행, n=924, 단위 : %, 복수응답 ) 목적까지의경로정보 소통정보 목적지위치정보 주차정보 이용하지않음

185 147 ( 전체통행, n=924, 단위 : %) 네비게이터없음 (11.1%) 목적지까지의통행에대부분의존 (34.6%) 운전편의를위한단순참조 (54.2%)

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187 149 ( 전체응답자, n=600) 대체경로인지 평균 1.56 점 버스노선인지 평균 점 지하철노선인지 평균 0.85 점 ( 전체응답자, n=600) 모르고있다 (42.0%) 알고있다 (58.0%)

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190 152 ( 전체응답자, n=600, 단위 : %, 점 ) 4.17 " 한다 4+5" 응답률 (%) 5 점척도평균 ( 점 ) 수단변경 경로변경출발시간변경통행포기 ( 전체응답자, n=600, 단위 : %, 점 ) " 한다 4+5" 응답률 (%) 5 점척도평균 ( 점 ) 수단변경 경로변경출발시간변경통행포기

191 153 ( 전체응답자, n=600, 단위 : %, 점 ) 3.99 " 한다 4+5" 응답률 (%) 5 점척도평균 ( 점 ) 수단변경 경로변경출발시간변경통행포기

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229 191 Abstract Younshik CHUNG et al. The ultimate goals of studies and activities conducted by the transport sector are to improve the quality of transportation services and the accessibility to transportation systems and also to maintain public safety, good environment, and positive and balanced area development. To achieve these goals, the road transport sector tries to build roads that link the important areas and to let the drivers take advantage of the roads without any constraint. However, the frequent traffic accidents and road constructions and occasional collapses of a bridge often impair the basic function of the roads, ultimately creating negative impacts on road uses. In general, the negative effect, inconvenience, and risk related to the use of transportation systems are associated with transportation vulnerability. Recently increasing is the concern for vulnerability issue, particularly after the earthquake in Kobe in 1995 and the

230 192 September 11 terrorist attack in New York City in In addition, the traffic systems became more vulnerable with the recent volcano eruption in Iceland (April 2010, May 2011) and Northeast earthquake and tsunami in Japan (March 2011). Unexpected weather changes, both domestic and foreign, that result in extreme snowfall and rain are increasing in frequency, scale, and severity. These external impacts lead beyond mere traffic congestion to transportation disasters such as loss of roads and bridges, landslides, slope collapses, flooding, and regional isolation, damaging transportation facilities and inflicting serious casualties. Although the natural disasters cannot be prevented, early community recognition, management, and preparation for them will minimize the scale of damage. Therefore needed are the efforts to categorize the vulnerability ranges depending on the types of disasters. Meanwhile, the interest in qualify traffic information is growing with the development of technologies related to real-time traffic information collection, processing, and dissemination. Especially, needs for and questions about the near future traffic situation are now prominent. The currently available real-time traffic information has formed the archived traffic data, making it possible to extract the information patterns on general traffic situations. It is commonly believed that the spatio-temporal traffic patterns tend to persist unless there are traffic incidents such as traffic accidents, public events, protests, road construction, and adverse weather. Therefore, it is possible to provide the traffic forecasts that predict traffic conditions in the near future based on the archived data. As traffic conditions are influenced by a variety of incidents, the existing traffic patterns may be changed by such incidents as road construction, traffic accidents, public events, and protests around the

231 193 roads. Most of the events, except for traffic accidents, are predetermined or predictable and can be identified in terms of time, location, and type. Therefore, when a set of information about weather, road construction, public events, and protests are properly combined and orchestrated, it is possible to provide predicted traffic information for drivers. Based on foregoing, this study formulates the assessment indexes of traffic vulnerability related to traffic congestion, trafficability, road landslide, and road flooding, and presents the measures to build effective traffic forecast systems and to reduce vulnerability in the transport sector. The study also offers the measures to build traffic forecast systems by combining such data as archived traffic data, weather condition, public events, protests, and road construction. Development of traffic forecast systems can provide the drivers with quality forecast service and support the operators of the roads in establishing plans to improve the road facilities and to block the roads according to vulnerability degree. Lastly, to analyze the needs for and responses to traffic forecast information, a survey was conducted with 600 drivers. Based on the results of the survey, the measures for establishing traffic forecast systems are proposed.

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233 저자약력 정연식 송태진 채찬들 김현 이지선 조종석 연구총서 교통취약성개선을위한국가교통예보시스템구축방안 ISBN 인쇄 발행 발행인 발행처한국교통연구원 인쇄처 가격

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