(019680) 2007 321 COMPANY INITIATION, CFA 02) 3772-1557 02) 3772-1568 emilypark@goodi.com Kitten78@goodi.com KOSPI : 1444.17p KOSDAQ : 645.37p : 756.4 : 5,000 : 8.5 : 3.4 (39.8%) 52 / : 95,400 /65,600 (60 ) : 14,665 (60 ) : 1,030 : 26.9% : 54.5% 3-8.6% 6 6.0% 12 13.0% KOSPI 3-8.7% 6 0.3% 12 5.4% 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 150 50 0 150,000 100,000 50,000 100 0 12 EPS PER PCR EV/EBITDA PBR ROE (%) (%) (%) 2005 815.5 68.9 87.2 60.6 5,824 (7.6) 13.7 8.6 5.7 1.5 12.4 2.1 2006 835.0 61.6 72.3 51.5 4,941 (15.2) 16.2 8.0 6.1 1.4 8.8 2.3 2007E 891.8 77.9 88.6 64.3 6,170 24.9 12.9 7.1 5.0 1.2 10.0 2.8 2008E 920.5 83.6 95.0 68.9 6,617 7.2 12.1 6.9 4.5 1.1 9.9 3.0 2009E 960.5 85.2 98.0 71.1 6,826 3.2 11.7 6.8 4.2 1.1 9.5 3.1 Korea Equity Research
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321, 98,400 1), 2), 3) DCF 98,400 75,300 23,100 DCF 480.5 1~5 303.4 (EV) 783.9 + 147.6 145.1 2.5 - (+ ) (93.1) 1,024.6 ( ) 10.4 () 98,398 2
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321, 58% DCF Valuation (%) 27.5 (%) 0.0 (Rf, %) 5.2 (%) 0.0 (%) 7.0 0.83 89.2 WACC (%) 11.0 (%) 0.0 WACC (%) 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 (1.5) 99,868 95,731 92,255 89,294 86,741 (1.0) 102,500 97,936 94,132 90,913 88,153 (0.5) 105,409 100,351 96,172 92,661 89,670 (%) 0.0 108,641 103,008 98,398 94,555 91,303 0.5 112,253 105,944 100,835 96,614 93,067 1.0 116,316 109,205 103,515 98,859 94,978 1.5 120,920 112,850 106,478 101,318 97,055 441.7 45.3 56.6 339.8 43.5 290.2 6.1 3
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321 2007 7.2% 113% 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 839.3 815.5 835.0 891.8 920.5 960.5 % YoY 4.2 (2.8) 2.4 6.8 3.2 4.3 756.1 724.6 735.2 788.0 811.7 847.2 (, ) 2,281 2,190 2,202 2,193 2,225 2,288 () 27,627 27,576 27,826 29,945 30,403 30,855 753.5 714.7 700.1 728.6 728.5 739.5 (, ) 2,277 2,170 2,147 2,107 2,107 2,139 () 27,574 27,450 27,180 28,810 28,810 28,810 2.6 8.4 18.2 23.5 30.1 36.5 (, ) 3 11 21 26 32 38 () 62,687 62,687 71,669 75,253 77,510 79,836-1.5 16.9 35.9 53.0 71.3 (, ) - 9 34 59 85 111 () - 28,758 41,333 50,370 51,881 53,437 46.1 54.3 57.0 58.7 60.5 62.3 14.7 20.8 27.6 28.8 31.0 32.4 (, ) 187 272 366 441 481 511 10.8 9.1 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 11.7 6.8 10.6 11.6 12.8 14.0 90.0 68.9 61.6 77.9 83.6 85.2 % YoY 27.3 (23.5) (10.5) 26.7 7.3 1.9 (%) 10.7 8.4 7.4 8.7 9.1 8.9 111.7 81.1 72.4 88.5 91.6 93.5 113.8 88.5 79.9 94.1 90.4 88.8 (2.2) (5.9) (3.1) (2.3) (0.9) 0.4 0.0 (1.5) (4.4) (3.2) 2.1 4.3 (12.5) (6.4) (1.3) 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.5 (0.1) 0.3 0.5 0.6 (6.6) (2.0) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 (2.6) (4.3) (8.9) (11.1) (10.0) (10.8) 4
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 4 1,394 1,601 1,732 1,844 1,857 1,972 M/S (%) 48 46 44 42 39 38 19 21 22 26 28 29 15 17 17 16 18 18 18 17 16 16 15 15 / / vs. 200 150 100 50-1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20) 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 5
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321 3~13 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 350 39 340 320 350 362 67 86 112 145 229 315 416 466 496 47 245 393 450 480 6
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321 2004 2005 2006 1,100 14,400 30,000 13,500 20,000 8,000 900 2,000 54 2,300 6,500 (%) 4.9 16.0 21.7 () 10 23 () 50 51 // 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-1,562 1,839 4,397 7,944 10,132 10,498 16,446 20,400 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 7
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321 M&A ROE 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 51 132 88 118 246 170 187 146 186 296 282 224 260 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 269 30% 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E EPS 6,306 5,824 4,941 6,170 6,617 6,826 1,500 1,650 1,800 2,200 2,400 2,500 (%) 19.5 23.0 29.6 29.0 29.5 29.7 (%) 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.0 3.1 311 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321 : 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 779.8 839.3 907.5 969.2 1,031.8 240.0 205.1 249.0 286.2 322.2 68.2 45.3 82.1 114.2 144.2 42.5 56.6 58.3 60.0 61.8 &76.0 44.5 45.8 47.2 48.6 & 23.1 24.8 26.5 27.4 28.5 18.2 21.7 23.2 23.9 25.0 11.9 12.2 13.1 13.5 14.1 539.8 634.2 658.6 683.0 709.7 317.7 375.5 395.8 417.6 440.9 166.6 198.5 203.7 209.0 214.5 55.5 60.2 59.1 56.3 54.3 224.6 229.5 237.6 245.6 254.1 116.3 122.9 126.6 130.0 133.7 7.3 13.8 14.8 15.2 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 109.0 109.1 111.8 114.8 117.8 108.2 106.6 111.0 115.6 120.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.2 106.6 111.0 115.6 120.4 555.2 609.8 670.0 723.6 777.7 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.1 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.7 305.9 339.5 392.1 437.9 483.8 125.5 146.5 154.0 161.9 170.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) (186.7) (146.4) (186.2) (221.4) (254.6) 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 53.6 74.5 71.7 77.8 79.8 60.6 51.5 64.3 68.9 71.1 11.5 10.9 9.8 10.1 10.5 20.2 27.6 27.2 25.9 25.0 16.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 ( ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) (1.1) 0.9 0.1 0.0 (0.1), (43.0) (29.4) (45.1) (43.4) (42.8) (10.7) (4.1) (1.5) (0.7) (0.9) (36.2) (77.0) (23.4) (22.6) (24.7) ( ) 32.0 (14.0) (1.7) (1.7) (1.8) ( ) (3.1) 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) (28.2) 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) (12.8) (43.6) (15.0) (15.5) (15.9) 0.2 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) (8.8) (4.7) 1.2 2.7 2.1 (15.5) (39.2) (7.8) (8.1) (9.0) Free Cash Flow 17.3 (2.5) 48.4 55.2 55.1 (15.8) (20.4) (11.6) (23.1) (25.2) ( ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (15.8) (17.9) (11.6) (23.1) (25.2) 0.0 (2.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) 1.5 (22.8) 36.8 32.1 29.9 66.6 68.2 45.3 82.1 114.2 68.2 45.3 82.1 114.2 144.2 / (%) 1.6 5.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 / (%) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 / (%) 89.7 25.1 65.2 65.6 65.9 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 815.5 835.0 891.8 920.5 960.5 (%) (2.8) 2.4 6.8 3.2 4.3 (%) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 631.8 658.8 700.3 721.2 751.0 (%) (1.0) 4.3 6.3 3.0 4.1 183.7 176.2 191.4 199.3 209.5 (%) 22.5 21.1 21.5 21.6 21.8 114.8 114.6 113.5 115.7 124.3 (%) 3.5 (0.2) (0.9) 1.9 7.4 68.9 61.6 77.9 83.6 85.2 (%) (23.5) (10.5) 26.4 7.3 1.9 (%) 8.4 7.4 8.7 9.1 8.9 ( ) 18.3 10.7 10.7 11.5 12.9 7.0 7.5 7.4 9.0 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 ( ) 11.2 8.6 8.0 7.2 7.2 ( ) 1.1 (0.9) (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 ( ) (0.9) (4.4) (4.6) (4.7) (4.9) 87.2 72.3 88.6 95.0 98.0 (%) (13.9) (17.1) 22.6 7.2 3.2 ( ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.2 72.3 88.6 95.0 98.0 26.5 20.8 24.4 26.1 27.0 60.6 51.5 64.3 68.9 71.1 (%) (6.8) (15.2) 24.9 7.2 3.2 EBITDA 100.5 100.2 114.9 119.6 120.7 (%) (12.3) (0.4) 14.7 4.2 0.9 (%) 28.6 36.7 36.0 36.6 36.9 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E () 5,824 4,941 6,170 6,617 6,826 () 5,714 4,955 5,414 5,930 6,131 () 53,321 58,563 64,339 69,491 74,690 () 1,650 1,800 2,200 2,400 2,500 PER () 13.7 16.2 12.9 12.1 11.7 PEG () 3.2 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.7 PER () 14.0 16.1 14.8 13.5 13.0 PCR () 8.6 8.0 7.1 6.9 6.8 EV/ EBITDA () 4.6 5.0 4.1 3.6 3.3 PBR () 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 (%) 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.1 (%) 22.5 21.1 21.5 21.6 21.8 (%) 8.4 7.4 8.7 9.1 8.9 EBITDA (%) 12.3 12.0 12.9 13.0 12.6 (%) 7.4 6.2 7.2 7.5 7.4 (%) 8.6 6.4 7.4 7.3 7.1 (%) 12.4 8.8 10.0 9.9 9.5 (%) 20.4 16.0 19.9 20.5 20.1 / (%) (33.6) (24.0) (27.8) (30.6) (32.7) (%) 206.3 166.9 196.6 220.2 241.0 () na na na na na () 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 () 32.0 34.8 34.8 34.2 34.4 () 46.8 41.8 39.7 39.1 39.3 () 109.2 78.9 62.3 61.3 61.6 () (25.4) (148.5) (47.3) (51.0) (54.1) 9
COMPANY INITIATION 2007321 10
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