에너지경제연구 제17권 제1호 - PDF 무료 다운로드

KOREAN ENERGY ECONOMIC REVIEW Korean Energy Economic Review 제 17 권제 1 호 2018. 3 에너지경제연구 탈원전 탈석탄 신재생에너지확대정책에따른신규전원구성의수급안정성평가민대기 류종현 최동구 가정부문전기수요의결정요인분석 : 동태적패널 FD GMM 기법을중심으로금예진 권오성 구영완 기온효과를반영한한국의환경쿠즈네츠가설검정박철웅 이용주 고령화와국내주택용전력소비간관계분석 : 고령화지표선택과가격 소득탄력성변화를중심으로신동현 에너지가격의장기균형과시장통합에대한연구 : 오차수정모형을통한접근임연이 김대욱 구조변화를고려한국제원유시장의통합연구정수관 원유시장과동아시아주식시장간의장기기억및변동성전이효과분석김형태 윤성민 에지워스가격사이클 (Edgeworth Price Cycle) 과비대칭적가격반응 : 서울휘발유소매시장사례김동훈 최봉석 국내발전부문의온실가스배출요인분해분석김수이 LNG 발전소건설및운영에따른유발효과분석조주현 윤태연 김윤경 지역분산형녹색전력구매제도입에대한소비자선호도분석배정환 원자력발전소의잠재적위험성이국내주택가격에미치는영향 : 후쿠시마원전사고를이용하여서미숙 조홍종 수송용유류세의소득재분배효과 : 운행거리소비분위별가격탄력성추정을중심으로김형건 한국자원경제학회 에너지경제연구원

에너지경제연구제 17 권제 1 호 2018. 3 < 한국자원경제학회 > < 에너지경제연구원 > 1987년 6월에자연자원및환경과관련된경제이론, 정책, 제도, 산업의연구및그연구결과의보급을목적으로설립되어, 학술지의발간, 국내및국제학술발표회의개최, 그리고국내외관련학술단체와의교류등설립목적에부합하는사업을지속적으로추진하여왔습니다. 현재한국자원경제학회는산업통상자원부의협조로사단법인으로등록되어있으며, 또한국제에너지경제학회 (IAEE) 의한국지부역할을하고있는이분야의유일한학술연구단체로서국내의수많은에너지정책분야전문가들이참여하고있습니다. 국내외에너지및자원에관한각종동향과정보를신속히수집 조사 연구하고이를널리보급 활용하게함으로써국가의에너지및자원에관한정책수립과국민경제향상에이바지하도록하기위하여정부출연연구기관으로 1986 년 9 월설립되었습니다. 에너지경제연구원은 21 세기국내외여건변화에국가 사회가능동적으로대응할수있도록국가에너지 Infra 구축을위하여에너지산업구조개편, 기후변화협약대응, 에너지국제협력, 에너지이용합리화, 에너지수급동향등의연구를핵심연구사업으로추진하고있습니다. 공동편집위원장 이근대 ( 에너지경제연구원 ) 김수이 ( 홍익대학교 ) 편집위원 김윤경 ( 이화여자대학교 ) 김형건 ( 강원대학교 ) 배정환 ( 전남대학교 ) 윤원철 ( 한양대학교 ) 전우영 ( 전남대학교 ) 최성희 ( 계명대학교 ) 김현철 ( 성균관대학교 ) 박창수 ( 숭실대학교 ) 원두환 ( 부산대학교 ) 정용훈 ( 고려대학교 ) 조홍종 ( 단국대학교 ) 본지에게재되는논문의내용은저자개인의견해이며, 저자의소속기관이나본지의공식견해를대변하는것은아닙니다. 에너지경제연구 는제 5 권제 1 호부터한국자원경제학회와에너지경제연구원이공동으로발행하고있습니다.

KOREAN ENERGY ECONOMIC REVIEW Korean Energy Economic Review 제 17 권제 1 호 2018. 3 에너지경제연구 한국자원경제학회 에너지경제연구원

차 례 에너지경제연구제 17 권제 1 호 민대기 류종현 최동구 금예진 권오성 구영완 박철웅 이용주 신동현 임연이 김대욱 정수관 김형태 윤성민

차 례 에너지경제연구제 17 권제 1 호 김동훈 최봉석 김수이 조주현 윤태연 김윤경 배정환 서미숙 조홍종 김형건

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 1~35 탈원전 탈석탄 신재생에너지확대정책에따른 신규전원구성의수급안정성평가 - 1 -

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P r - 10 -

< 표 1> 몬테카를로시뮬레이션기반의 LOLP 추정방법 - 11 -

min min min - 12 -

~ - 13 -

- 14 -

< 표 2> 시나리오정의 < 표 3> 시나리오 2 에서활용될전원구성계획을위해추가적으로 필요한발전설비용량및도입년도 - 15 -

< 표 4> 시나리오 3 에서활용될, 제 8 차전력수급기본계획 에서제안될 것으로예상되는수요전망과전원구성계획 - 16 -

- 17 -

[ 그림 1] 2014 년부하지속곡선 - 18 -

< 표 5> 첨두부하시전력수요변동성 ( 전력수요의경험적확률분포 ) < 표 6> 전통적전원별기술특성치자료 - 19 -

- 20 -

< 표 7> 신재생에너지및집단에너지기술특성치자료 < 표 8> 신재생에너지부하지속곡선단계별평균출력량 ( 이용률 ) < 표 9> 첨두부하시풍력 / 태양광출력량변동성 ( 신재생에너지발전량의경험적확률분포 ) - 21 -

< 표 10> 온실가스및환경오염물질배출계수 - 22 -

< 표 11> 예비율과공급신뢰도분석 - 23 -

~ - 24 -

[ 그림 2] 설비예비율과공급예비율의차이 < 표 12> 발전비용분석 1) ( 단위 : 십억원 ) - 25 -

< 표 13> 온실가스및환경오염물질배출량분석 ( 연평균 ) - 26 -

- 27 -

접수일 (2017 년 10 월 18 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 11 월 9 일 ) - 28 -

,,,,. 2013.,,. 2011. :,, 10(2), 169-186. 2014. 4. 2015. 7. 2017.,,. 2015. 7,,. 2012.,,,. 2009. RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard),, 58(3), 467-477,,,,,,. 2013. I -. 2014. (http://epsis.kpx.or.kr). 2016. 2015,. 2012.,, 37(3), 135-149,,,,,,. 2015. :,,,,,,,. 2014. - 29 -

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Choi, D.G., Park, S.Y., and Hong, J.C. 2015. Quantitatively exploring the future of renewable portfolio standard in the Korean electricity sector via a bottom-up energy model Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 50: pp793-803 Cote, G. and Laughton M.A. 1980. Prediction of reserve requirements in generation planning International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 2(2): pp87-95 Farghal, S.A. and Aziz, M.R.A. 1988. Generation expansion planning including the renewable sources IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 3: pp816-822 Feng, Y. and Ryan, S.M. 2013. Scenario construction and reduction applied to stochastic power generation expansion planning Computers and Operations Research 40: pp9-23 Gitizadeh, M., Kaji, M., and Aghaei, J. 2013. Risk based multiobjective generation expansion planning considering renewable energy sources. Energy, 50: pp74-82. Hobbs. B.F. 1995. Optimization methods for electric utility resource planning European Journal of Operations Research 83: pp1-20 Hu, Z. and Jewell, W.T. 2013. Optimal generation expansion planning with integration of variable renewable and bulk energy storage systems Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Technologies for Sustainability, pp1-8 Kim, Y.-C., and Ahn, B.-H. 1993. Multicriteria generation-expansion planning with global environmental considerations IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 40(2): pp154-161 Jin, S., Ryan, S.M., Watson, J.P. and Woodru, D.L. 2011. Modeling and solving a large-scale generation expansion planning problem under uncertainty Energy Systems 2: pp209-242 Jonghe, C.D., Delarue, E., Belmans, R. and D'haeseleer, W. 2011. Determining optimal electricity technology mix with high level of wind power penetration Applied Energy 88: pp2231-2238 Meza, J.L.C., Yildirim, M.B., Masud, A.S.M. 2007, A model for the multiperiod multiobjective power generation expansion problem IEEE Transaction on Power Systems 22(2): pp871-878 - 31 -

Min, D. and Chung, J. 2013. Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case of South Korea's energy policy Energy Policy 62: pp1544-1552 Min, D., Ryu, J. and Choi, D.G. 2017. A long-term capacity expansion planning model for an electric power system integrating large-size renewable energy technology Computers & Operations Research In Press Noonan, F. and Gigolio, R.J. 1977. Planning electric power generation: a non-linear mixed integer model employing Benders Decomposition Management Science 23(9): pp946-956 Park, S.Y., Yun, B.-Y., Yun, C.Y. Lee, D.H., Choi, D.G. 2016. An analysis of the optimum renewable energy portfolio using the bottom-up model: Focusing on the electricity generation sector in South Korea Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 53: pp319-329 Peterson, E.R. 1973. A dynamic programming model for the expansion of electric power systems Management Science 20(4): pp656-664 Pisciella, P., Vespucci, M.T., Bertocchi, M.. and Zigrino, S. 2016. A time consistent risk averse three-stage stochastic mixed integer optimization model for power generation capacity expansion Energy Economics 53: pp203-211 Sanghvi, A.P., Balu, N.J., Lauby, M.G. 1991. Power system reliability planning practices in north America IEEE Transactions Power Systems 6(4): pp1485-1492 Scherer, C.R. and Joe, L. 1977. Electric power system planning with explicit stochastic reserve constraint Management Science 23(9): pp978-985 Stremel, J.P. 1982. Production costing for long-range generation expansion planning studies IEEE Transaction on Power Apparatus and Systems PAS-101(3): 526-536 Tekiner, H., Coit, D.W., and Felder, F.A. 2010. Multi-period multi-objective electricity generation expansion planning problem with Monte-Carlo simulation Electric Power Systems Research, 80: pp1394-1405 - 32 -

< 표 A1> 분석결과 시나리오 1 & 2-33 -

< 표 A2> 분석결과 시나리오 3 & 4-34 -

ABSTRACT The Korean government has recently decided to dramatically expand renewable energy technologies (RETs) while reducing the portion of nuclear and/or coal power generations. The large deployment of RETs could possibly hurt the power system reliability because of the unreliability of RETs. This paper proposes a model for analyzing the effects of unreliable RETs on the reliability of power supply and the level of reasonable reserve margin. Numerical analysis provides some interesting findings. First, the 7 th basic power supply plan (the 7 th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand) could fail to meet the target level of power system reliability after 2024. In addition, the power system reliability could possibly worsen in the 8 th basic power supply plan, which reduces the portion of nuclear and coal power generation and increases RETs, even though the 8 th basic power supply plan sets the installed reserve and capability margin as 20% and 18% respectively, which are higher than those in the 7 th basic power supply plan, 16% and 12% respectively. Key Words:Power generation mix, Renewable energy, Supply uncertainty, Power system reliability - 35 -

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 37~65 가정부문전기수요의결정요인분석 : 동태적패널 FD GMM 기법을중심으로 37

ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 42

ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 43

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< 표 1> 전국단위기초통계량 45

~ 46

< 표 2> 상관계수분석 < 표 3> 지역별분석을위한분류 47

< 표 4> 광역시의변수별기초통계량 < 표 5> 광역시를제외한기타지역의변수별기초통계량 48

ln 49

< 표 6> 패널단위근검정결과 Δ Δ Δ Δ Δ Δ ln ln ln ln ln 50

< 표 7> 과대식별제약검정및오차항자기상관검정 51

< 표 8> 전국가정용전기수요함수추정 Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln 52

Δln Δln Δln ln ln ln Δln 53

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< 표 9> 지역별과대식별제약검정및오차항자기상관검정 55

< 표 10> 지역별가정용전기수요추정결과 Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln Δln ln ln ln ln ln 56

ln ln Δln ln ln ln ln ln ln 57

Δln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln < 표 11> 부분조정모형으로추정한전기수요의탄력성 58

ln 접수일 (2017 년 9 월 18 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 10 월 29 일 ) 61

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ABSTRACT In this paper, we estimate the determinants of the demand function for electricity by FD GMM method based on panel data of 16 regions during 1996-2013. the results of the study are as follows. 1) The results of a partial adjustment model showed better results than these of ARDL model in terms of statistical significance and economical meaningness; 2) the elasticities of price and income were negative(-) and positive(+) and the long run elasticities were more elastic than the short run; 3) the elasticities of cooling degree days and aging population ratio were positive(+) and negative(-); 4) there was a rebound effect that the effect of economic growth dominates the effect of energy efficiency improvement over time; 5) the government policy for electricity needs to consider the increased income elasticity that dominates the increased price elasticity. Key words : Electric demand, FD GMM, Patial adjustment model, Elasticity, Rebound effect 65

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 67~94 기온효과를반영한 한국의환경쿠즈네츠가설검정 ** *** :,,,, *. ** (), papa@kogas.or.kr *** (), yongjulee@ynu.ac.kr - 67 -

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< 표 1> 환경쿠즈네츠가설에대한선행연구 - 74 -

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< 표 2> 연료연소시부문별탄소배출비중 3) 3) - 76 -

4) ~ 5) 4) - 77 -

< 표 3> 분석자료주요통계 ln ln ln ln ln ln - 78 -

6) ln ln ln ln ln ln ln v t - 79 -

7) < 표 4> 단위근검정결과 - 80 -

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< 표 5> 공적분검정결과 ( ) ( ). 1. - 82 -

8) < 표 6> 공적분회귀모형추정결과 - 83 -

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< 표 7> 오차수정모형추정결과 z t-1-86 -

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~ - 89 -

접수일 (2017 년 10 월 12 일 ), 수정일 (2017 년 11 월 22 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 12 월 6 일 ) - 90 -

. 2014. CO 2 EKC : CO 2 GRDP. 23.(4) : 667-688.. 2011. 1 CO 2., : 41~53.. 2005.. 10 : 119-144.. 2002.. 11.(3) : 377-397., and. 1999. OECD. 8.(1) : 77-108.. 2016.,, CO. 12.(1) : 34-41.. 2012.. 14.(3) : 107~131.. 2016.. 25.(4) : 545-564.. 2015.. 63.(3) : 71-119.. 2016.. 32(9) : 11-18. 2014.., 62.(3) : 5-28..2009.. 10(3) : 83-95. - 91 -

. 2010.. 9.(4) : 53-76.. 2014.. 23.(3) : 473-496.. 2016. 3. 12.(2) : 149~165.. 2012. CO 2,. 21.(2) : 271-299.. 2001. -OECD 17. 10.(4) : 619-633. Andreoni, James, and Arik Levinson. 2001. The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve. Journal of public economics 80.2 : 269-286. Baek, Jungho, and Hyun Seok Kim. 2013. Is economic growth good or bad for the environment? Empirical evidence from Korea. Energy Economics 36 : 744-749. Bertinelli, Luisito, and Eric Strobl. 2005. The environmental Kuznets curve semi-parametrically revisited. Economics Letters 88.3 : 350-357. Borghesi, Simone. 1999. The environmental Kuznets curve: a survey of the literature. Copeland, Brian R., and M. Scott Taylor. 1999. Trade, spatial separation, and the environment. Journal of International Economics 47.1 : 137-168. Copeland, Brian R., and M. Scott Taylor. 2004. Trade, growth, and the environment. Journal of Economic literature 42.1 : 7-71. Fosten, Jack, Bruce Morley, and Tim Taylor. 2012. Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from CO 2 and SO 2 emissions in the United Kingdom. Ecological Economics 76 : 25-33. Galeotti, Marzio, Matteo Manera, and Alessandro Lanza. 2009. On the robustness of robustness checks of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Environmental and resource economics 42.4 : 551-574. Grossman, Gene M., and Alan B. Krueger. 1995. Economic growth and the environment. The quarterly journal of economics 110.2 : 353-377. - 92 -

Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, and Thomas M. Selden. 1995. Stoking the fires? CO 2 emissions and economic growth. Journal of public economics 57.1 : 85-101. Liao Hua, Cao Huai-Shu. 2013. How does carbon dioxide emission change with the economic development? Statistical experiences from 132 countries. Global Environmental Change 23.5 : 1073-1082 Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, and Antonello Maruotti. 2011. The impact of urbanization on CO 2 emissions: evidence from developing countries. Ecological Economics 70.7 : 1344-1353. Mitić, Petar, Olja Munitlak Ivanović, and Aleksandar Zdravković. 2017. A cointegration analysis of real GDP and CO 2 emissions in transitional countries. Sustainability 9.4 : 568. Nahman, Anton, and Geoff Antrobus. 2005. The environmental Kuznets curve: a literature survey. South African Journal of Economics 73.1 : 105-120. Richmond, Amy K., and Robert K. Kaufmann. 2006. Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?. Ecological economics 56.2 : 176-189. Romero-Ávila, Diego. 2008. Convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among industrialised countries revisited. Energy Economics 30.5 : 2265-2282. Selden, Thomas M., and Daqing Song. 1994. Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions?. Journal of Environmental Economics and management 27.2 : 147-162. Stern, David I., Michael S. Common, and Edward B. Barbier. 1996. Economic growth and environmental degradation: the environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development. World development 24.7 : 1151-1160. Verbeke, Tom, and Marc De Clercq. 2006. The incomeenvironment relationship: Evidence from a binary response model. Ecological Economics 59.4 : 419-428. Westerlund, Joakim, and Syed A. Basher. 2008. Testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a century of panel data. Environmental and Resource Economics 40.1 : 109-120. - 93 -

ABSTRACT This paper tests Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis using time series data of Korea in the time period between the years 1971 and 2014, and analyzes the determinants of CO 2 emissions. For this purpose, we consider GDP per capita, the portion of renewable energy relative to the nation s power source, final energy consumption per capita, and cooling and heating degree day as the explanatory variables. And, considering nonstationarity of the time series, we analyze the relationship between CO 2 emissions and explanatory variables in the framework of a cointegration model and an error correction model. The test results show that there exists a statistically significant positive relation among GDP, cooling and heating degree day, final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions, and a statistically significant negative relation among GDP square, the portion of renewable energy and CO 2 emissions. That is, the results ascertain the existence of Environment Kuznets Curve in Korea and the significancy of temperature effects on CO 2 emissions. Key Words : CO 2 emission, Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, Temperature Effects, Cointegration, Error Correction Model - 94 -

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 95~129 고령화와국내주택용전력소비간관계분석 : 고령화지표선택과가격 소득탄력성변화를중심으로 - 95 -

< 표 1> 한국의총인구및 65 세이상인구전망 - 96 -

< 표 2> 주요국가의고령화속도비교 (65 세인구비중 7 14% 도달시간 ) - 97 -

- 98 -

- 99 -

< 표 3> 고령화와국내주택용전력소비간관계에대한선행연구정리 - 100 -

- 101 -

- 102 -

< 표 4> 분석사용자료요약 - 103 -

< 표 5> 2015 년주택용전력소비및관련지표현황 - 104 -

< 표 6> 주택용전력소비및관련지표의연평균증감률 (2003~2015 년 ) - 105 -

- 106 -

- 107 -

- 108 -

arg min - 109 -

- 110 -

- 111 -

< 표 7> 모형평균방법에의한가중치 (FE모형 ) - 112 -

- 113 -

< 표 8> 주택용전력소비모형추정결과 : 선형모형 (FE 모형 ) - 114 -

- 115 -

- 116 -

< 표 9> 주택용전력소비모형추정결과 : 임계패널회귀모형 ( 임계변수 : 노령화지수 ) - 117 -

- 118 -

- 119 -

접수일 (2018 년 1 월 16 일 ), 수정일 (2018 년 2 월 7 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 2 월 14 일 ) - 120 -

, 2014,,, 23, 3, pp.409-434., 2014,,, 13(2), pp.99-129., 2013,,, 48(2), pp.295-312., 2014,,, 32(2), pp.177-202., 2017, :,., 2016,,, 34(2), pp.5-42., 2016,,, 14(3), pp.27-81., 2016, KEEI 2016,., 2012, :,, 21(2), pp.341-369., 2004,, 04-01,., 2013, :,, 12(2), pp.33-58., 2015,,, 24(2), pp.365-410., (URL: http://kosis.kr/stathtml/stathtml.do?orgid=101&tblid =DT_1BPB002&conn_path=I3,, 2018. 1. 3) - 121 -

Bedir, M., Hasselaar, E. and Itard, L., 2013, Determinants of Electricity Consumption in Dutch Dwellings, Energy and Buildings, 58, pp.194-207. Brounen, D., Kok, N. and Quigley, J.M., 2012, Residential Energy Use and Conservation: Economics and Demographics, European Economic Review, 56(5), pp.931-945. Filippini, M., 1999, Swiss Residential Demand for Electricity, Applied Economics Letters, 6(8), pp.533-538. Flaig, G.,1990, Household Production and the Short-run and Long-run Demand for Electricity, Energy Economics, 12(2), pp.116-121. Hansen, B.E., 1996. Inference When a Nuisance Parameter is not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis, Econometrica, 64(2), pp.413-430., 1999, Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference, Journal of econometrics, 93(2), pp.345-368., 2000, Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation, Econometrica, 68(3), pp.575-603., 2007, Least Squares Model Averaging, Econometrica, 75(4), pp.1175-1189., 2008, Least-squares Forecast Averaging, Journal of Econometrics, 146(2), pp.342-350. and Racine, J.S., 2012, Jackknife Model Averaging, Journal of Econometrics, 167(1), pp.38-46. Halvorsen, R., 1975, Residential Demand for Electric Energy, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 57(1), pp.12-18. Hausman, J.A., 1978, Specification Tests in Econometrics, Econometrica, 46(6), pp.1251-1271. Ito, K., 2014, Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing, American Economic Review, 104(2), pp.537-563. Tonn, B. and Eisenberg, J., 2007, The Aging US Population and Residential Energy Demand, Energy Policy, 35(1), pp.743-745. - 122 -

White, H., 1980, A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct test for Heteroskedasticity, Econometrica, 48(4) pp.817-838. Yamasaki, E. and Tominaga, N., 1997, Evolution of an Aging Society and Effect on Residential Energy Demand, Energy Policy, 25(11), pp.903-912. - 123 -

< 부표 1> 모형평균방법의선택벡터 ( ) - 124 -

< 부표 2> 모형평균방법에의한가중치 (RE 모형 ) - 125 -

< 부표 3> 주택용전력소비모형추정결과 : 선형모형 (RE 모형 ) - 126 -

< 부표 4> 모형평균방법에의한가중치 (FE 모형 ) - 127 -

< 부표 5> 고령화지표들간선형상관관계 < 부표 6> 주택용전력소비모형추정결과 : 임계패널회귀모형 ( 임계변수 : 중위연령 ) - 128 -

ABSTRACT This paper investigates aging index that best describes household electricity consumption in Korea, and then predicts household electricity consumption volatility according to aging. The empirical analysis of panel data shows two important results. First, not the population ratio above age 65 but aging index and median age are more related to household electricity consumption. Second, if a society becomes an aging society, income elasticity will be more inelastic. Contrary to income elasticity, price elasticity of household electricity change more elastically when aging index increases. Therefore, it implies that not only price policy but also efficiency improvement policy should be implemented for stabilization of electricity consumption volatility necessary to renewable energy supply expansion. Key Words : Residential Electricity Consumption, Aging, Model Averaging, Threshold Panel Regression - 129 -

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 131~151 에너지가격의장기균형과시장통합에대한연구 : 오차수정모형을통한접근 - 131 -

- 132 -

- 133 -

- 134 -

< 표 1> 기초통계분석 - 135 -

[ 그림 1] 국제일차에너지가격 - 136 -

- 137 -

와 - 138 -

< 표 2> 단위근검정결과 - 139 -

< 표 3> 공적분검정결과 12) - 140 -

< 표 4> 오차수정모형의추정결과 - 141 -

- 142 -

15) 16) - 143 -

17) - 144 -

< 표 5> 시장통합의정도추정결과 : 셰일가스확산전후비교 - 145 -

- 146 -

접수일 (2018 년 1 월 22 일 ), 수정일 (2018 년 3 월 5 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 3 월 12 일 ) - 147 -

(2010), :,, 58(1) : 37-56. (2009),,, 8(2) : 105-131. (2013),,, 22(4) : 613-641. (2002),,, 1(1) : 1-17. (2009),,. (2014), (SMP), LNG,,, 28(7) : 97-105 (2007),,, 6(1) : 59-78. (2004),,, 25(2) : 133-150 (2014),,, 13(1) : 1-21. (2006),,, 5(1) : 1-25. (2011),,. (2006),, : (2007),,, 6(2) : 175-198. (2014),,. BachmeierGriffin(2003). New evidence on asymmetric gasoline price responses, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(3) : 772-776. - 148 -

BachemierGriffinJames M(2006). Testing for Market Integration Crude Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas, The Energy Journal, 27(2) : 55-71. BaconRobert W(1991). "Rockets and Feathers: The Asymmetric Speed of Adjustment of UK Retail Gasoline Prices to Cost Changes", Energy Economics, 13 : 211-218. BorensteinCameronGilbert(1997). Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 11(1) : 305-339. BoscoBrunoet al(2008). "Longrun relations in European electricity prices.", Journal of applied econometrics, 25(5) : 805-832. Deltas(2008). Retail gasoline price dynamics and local market power, The Journal of Industrial Economics, 56(3) : 613-628. Hastings(2004). Vertical Relationships and Competition in Retail Gasoline Markets: Empirical Evidence from Contract Changes in Southern California, The American Economic Review, 94(1) : 317-328. KarrenbrockJeffrey D(1991). The behavior of retail gasoline prices: symmetric or not, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August, 19-29. KozhevnikovaMariaIan Lange(2009). "Determinants of contract duration: further evidence from coal-fired power plants.", Review of Industrial Organization, 34(3) : 217-229. Lewis, M. S. (2011). Asymmetric price adjustment and consumer search: An examination of the retail gasoline market. Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 20(2), 409-449. Manning, D. N(1991). Petrol Price, Oil Prices Rises and Oil Price Falls: Evidence for the United Kingdom Since 1972, Applied Economics, 23 : 1535-1541. Noel(2012). Blowing Up the Rockets and Feathers Conspiracy, Law 360 (Competition Law and Energy Law), online, January 19. SaussierStéphane(1999). Transaction cost economics and contract duration: an empirical analysis of EDF coal contracts., Recherches Économiques de Louvain/Louvain Economic Review, 65(1) : 3-21. - 149 -

SerletisApostolosAkbar Shahmoradi(2016). Measuring and testing natural gas and electricity markets volatility: evidence from Alberta s deregulated markets., Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 10(3). Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel(2008). What Drives Natural Gas Prices?, The Energy Journal, 29(2) : 45-60. Tappata(2009). Rockets and feathers: Understanding asymmetric pricing, The RAND Journal of Economics, 40(4) : 673-687. Joskow, Paul(1987). Contract duration and relationship-specific investments: Empirical evidence from coal markets, The American Economic Review, 77(1) : 168-185. - 150 -

ABSTRACT This Study explores the long run equilibrium and market integration of international coal, oil and natural gas prices using weekly data from January 2004 to September 2015. Our test results from error correction model yield increased estimates for the long run equilibrium and the degree of market integration, when compared to previous literature. These higher parameters are likely to be driven by the wide spread of shale oil and shale gas from 2007. These empirical results imply that energy prices of primary fuels are adjusted more quickly to external shocks after 2007. Our results are also expected to be informative when energy firms purchase primary fuels in the spot market or using long term agreements. Key Words : international energy p rices, Shale gas, error correction model - 151 -

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 153~177 구조변화를고려한국제원유시장의통합연구 - 153 -

- 154 -

- 155 -

- 156 -

~ ~ - 157 -

- 158 -

- 159 -

ln ln ln ln ln ln ln - 160 -

ln ln ln - 161 -

ln - 162 -

< 표 1> 국제유가의기초통계량 (US$/barrel) - 163 -

[ 그림 1] 국제유가변화추이 0 50 100 150 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1 2018m1 month wti brent dubai - 164 -

< 표 2> ADF 단위근검정 < 표 3> Zivot-Andrews 검정 - 165 -

~ < 표 4> Gregory-Hansen 공적분검정 - 166 -

< 표 5> Johansen 검정공적분검정결과 ~ ~ - 167 -

~ ~ ln ln ln - 168 -

< 표 6> VECM: 전체기간 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln - 169 -

< 표 7> VECM: 구조변화이전 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln - 170 -

< 표 8> VAR 모형 : 구조변화이후 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln - 171 -

< 표 9> VECM을이용항 Granger 인과성검정 - 172 -

- 173 -

접수일 (2018 년 1 월 22 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 2 월 22 일 ) - 174 -

. 2007.. 16(2): 213-239.. 2006.. 15(3): 479-504.. 2013.,.. 2005.. 2005 : 1-6. Adelman, M. A. 1984. International oil agreements. The Energy Journal 5(3), 1-9. Bachmeier, L. J. and Griffin, J. M. 2006. Testing for market integration crude oil, coal, and natural gas. The Energy Journal 27(2): 55-71. Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. 1987. Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55(2): 251-276. Engle, R. F., Hendry, D. F. and Richard, J. F. 1983. Exogeneity. Econometrica: 277-304. Garis, D. 2011. The Behavior of Petroleum Markets: Fundamentals and Psychologicals in Price Discovery and Formation. International Handbook on the Economics of energy: 420-440. Geweke, J. and Porter-Hudak, S. 1983. The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal Of Time Series Analysis 4(4): 221-238. Granger, C. W. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3): 424-438. Gregory, A. W. and Hansen, B. E. 1996. Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics 70(1): 99-126. - 175 -

Gülen, S. G. 1997. Regionalization in the world crude oil market. The Energy Journal 18(2): 109-126. Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2): 231254. Nelson, C. R. and Plosser, C. R. 1982. Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics 10(2): 139-162. Perron, P. 1989. The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica 57: 1361-1401. Perron, P. 1997. Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables. Journal of Econometrics 80(2): 355-385. Perron, P. and Vogelsang, T. 1992. Nonstationarity and level shifts with an application to purchasing power parity. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10: 301-320. Ripple, R. D. and Wilamoski, P. R. 1996. Is the world oil market one great pool?: Revisited. OPEC Review 19(4): 283-292. Rodriguez, A. E. and Williams, M. D. 1993. Is the World Oil Market" One Great Pool? A Test. Energy Studies Review 5(2): 121-130. Weiner, R. J. 1991. Is the world oil market" one great pool"?. The Energy Journal 12(3): 95-107. Zivot, E. and Andrews, K. 1992, Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10(10): 251-70. - 176 -

ABSRACT This study analyzed the dynamic relationship of international oil market integration. Considering the possibility of structural change, unit root test and cointegration analysis were carried out. The structural change dummy variable based on the endogenously determined break-point is included for the whole period. Cointegration and Granger causality analysis between the international oil prices was conducted for the periods before and after the break-point. As a result, the prices of WTI, Dubai and Brent showed a random walking and a co-integration relation, and the international oil market was integrated. However, the long-run equilibrium relationship and the causal relationship between international crude oil prices were different in sub-periods. The prices of WTI, Dubai and Brent before the structural change showed a significant influence on the mutual prediction with cointegration relaton. However, after the structural change, WTI, Dubai, and Brent prices did not have a long-run relation as well as causality. The integration of the international crude oil market can be seen as a dynamic phenomenon depending on structural changes and analysis periods. Key Words:Oil Prices,, Structural change, Cointegration, VECM, Causality - 177 -

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 179~207 원유시장과동아시아주식시장간의장기기억및 변동성전이효과분석 * - 179 -

- 180 -

- 181 -

- 182 -

ㆍ - 183 -

- 184 -

~ - 185 -

- 186 -

- 187 -

log log if if if - 188 -

- 189 -

[ 그림 1] WTI 선물지수와동아시아 5 개국 MSCI 지수의그래프 WTIF KOREA_MSCI JAPAN_MSCI 160 500 4,000 120 400 300 3,500 3,000 80 2,500 40 200 100 2,000 1,500 0 0 1,000 00 05 10 15 00 05 10 15 00 05 10 15 China_MSCI HK_MSCI TAIWAN_MSCI 120 12,000 440 100 80 10,000 8,000 400 360 320 60 280 40 20 6,000 4,000 240 200 160 0 00 05 10 15 2,000 00 05 10 15 120 00 05 10 15 ㆍ ㆍ - 190 -

[ 그림 2] WTI 선물및동아시아 5 개국 MSCI 수익률의그래프 WTIF_Return KOREA_MSCI_Return JAPAN_MSCI_Return 30 30 10 20 10 0-10 20 10 0-10 -20 5 0-5 -10-20 00 05 10 15-30 00 05 10 15-15 00 05 10 15 30 20 10 0-10 -20 China_MSCI_Return 00 05 10 15 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 HK_MSCI_Return 00 05 10 15 12 8 4 0-4 -8-12 TAIWAN_MSCI_Return 00 05 10 15-191 -

< 표 1> WTI 선물및주가지수수익률의기초통계량과단위근검정 - 192 -

< 표 2> 시계열수익률 및변동성 의장기기억분석 - 193 -

- 194 -

- 195 -

< 표 3> FIAPARCH-DCC 모형추정결과 - 196 -

< 표 4> FIAPARCH-DCC 모형추정결과 - 197 -

[ 그림 3] 시간가변에따른조건부상관계수그래프 CORR_WTIF_KOREA CORR_WTIF_JAPAN CORR_WTIF_CHINA.4.20.4.3.15.3.2.10.2.1.1.05.0.0.00 -.1 -.1 00 05 10 15 -.05 00 05 10 15 -.2 00 05 10 15 CORR_WTIF_HK CORR_WTIF_TAIWAN.4.4.3.3.2.2.1.1.0 -.1.0 -.2 00 05 10 15 -.1 00 05 10 15-198 -

- 199 -

< 표 5> 최적포트폴리오가중치와헤지비율 - 200 -

[ 그림 4] 시간가변에따른헤지비율그래프 HR_WTIF_KOREA HR_WTIF_JAPAN HR_WTIF_CHINA.6.5.4.3.2.1.0 -.1 00 05 10 15.8.6.4.2.0 -.2 00 05 10 15.8.6.4.2.0 -.2 -.4 00 05 10 15 1.2 HR_WTIF_HK 1.0 HR_WTIF_TAIWAN 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0-0.4 00 05 10 15-0.2 00 05 10 15-201 -

- 202 -

접수일 (2018 년 1 월 26 일 ), 수정일 (2018 년 3 월 2 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 3 월 19 일 ) - 203 -

ㆍ, 2014,,, 32 2, pp. 189-220. ㆍ, 2016,,, 24 1, pp. 31-64., 2012,,, 11 2, pp. 23-43. ㆍ, 2015, ASEAN, Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society, 17 3, pp. 1383-1395. ㆍ ㆍ, 2012, WTI,, 25 6, pp. 3613-3642. Arouri, M. E. H., Jouini, J., and Nguyen, D. K. 2011. Volatility Spillovers between Oil Prices and Stock Sector Returns: Implications for Portfolio Management, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(7), 1387-1405. Arouri, M. E. H., Jouini, J., and Nguyen, D. K. 2012. On the Impacts of Oil Price Fluctuations on European Equity Markets: Volatility Spillover and Hedging Effectiveness, Energy Economics, 34(2), 611-617. Baillie, R. T., and Bollerslev, T. 1989. The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7(3), 297-305. Baillie, R. T., Bollerslev, T., and Mikkelsen, H. O. 1996. Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 74(1), 3-30. - 204 -

Bollerslev, T. 1986. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. Choi, K., and Hammoudeh, S. 2010. Volatility Behavior of Oil, Industrial Commodity and Stock Markets in a Regime-Switching Environment, Energy Policy, 38(8), 4388-4399. Cheung, Y. W., and Lai, K. S. 1993. Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory? Financial Review, 28(2), 181-202. Chkili, W., Aloui, C., and Nguyen, D. C. 2014. Instabilities in the Relationships and Hedging Strategies between Crude Oil and US Stock Markets: Do Long Memory and Asymmetry Matter? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 33, 354366. Ding, Z., Granger, C. W., and Engle, R. F. 1993. A Long Memory Property of Stock Market Returns and a New Model, Journal of Empirical Finance, 1(1), 83-106. Engle, R. F., and Kroner, K. F. 1995. Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH, Econometric Theory, 11, 122-150. Engle, R. F. 2002. Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350. Geweke, J., and Porter-Hudak, S. 1983. The Estimation and Application of Long Memory Time Series Models, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4(4), 221-238. Hosking, J. R. M. 1980. The Multivariate Portmanteau Statistic, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75(371), 602-608. Hosking, J. R. M. 1981. Lagrange-Multiplier Tests of Bivariate Time Series Models, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 43(2), 219-230. Kroner, K. F., and Ng, V. K. 1998. Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns, Review of Financial Studies, 11(4), 817-844. Kroner, K. F., and Sultan, J. 1993. Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28(4), 535-551. - 205 -

Lo, A. W. 1991. Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices, Econometrica, 59(5), 1279-1313. Malik, F., and Hammoudeh, S. 2007, Shock and Volatility Transmission in the Oil, US and Gulf Equity Markets, International Review of Economics and Finance, 16(3), 357-368. McLeod, A. I., and Li, W. K. 1981. Distribution of the Residual Autocorrelation in Bivariate ARMA Time Series Models, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 43(2), 231-239. Mensi, W., Beljid, M., Boubaker, A., and Managi, S. 2013. Correlations and Volatility Spillovers across Commodity and Stock Markets: Linking Energies, Food, and Gold, Economic Modelling, 32, 15-22. Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., Rebordo, S., and Nguyen, D. K. 2015. Are Sharia Stocks, Gold and U.S. Treasury Hedges and Safe Havens for the Oil-based GCC Markets? Emerging Markets Review, 24, 1-17. Robinson, P. M. 1995. Gaussian Semiparametric Estimation of Long Range Dependence, The Annals of Statistics, 23(5), 16301661. Tse, Y. K. 1998. The Conditional Heteroscedasticity of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 13(1), 49-55. - 206 -

ABSTRACT This study investigates volatility spillover between crude oil futures and East Asian stock markets using the AR(1)-FIAPARCH-DCC model during period 1998-2016. Empirical results of this study were summarized as follows. First, this study finds the evidence of long memory and asymmetry in volatility between crude oil futures and east Asian stock markets. Second, conditional correlations show that the pair of WTIF-China has the highest correlation and the pair of WTIF-Japan has the lowest correlation. Third, conditional correlations between crude oil futures and East Asian stock markets increase after the 2008 global financial crisis. Fourth, the average hedge ratio is highest for pair of WTIF-Hong Kong, while that of WTIF-Japan is the lowest, this result shows that a pair of WTIF-Japan offers the most efficient hedge ratio. Lastly, time-varing hedge ratios increase rapidly as do structural changes such as the financial crisis. Key Words : Long Memory, Asymmetry, Volatility Spillover, Hedging Ratio, Crude Oil Futures - 207 -

에너지경제연구제 17 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 특별호

에너지경제연구 김진형교수정년기념특별호헌정사 김진형교수 에너지경제연구특별호공동편집위원장 김수이 이근대

특별호 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 213~240 에지워스가격사이클 (Edgeworth Price Cycle) 과 비대칭적가격반응 : 서울휘발유소매시장사례 - 213 -

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- 216 -

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if if if if if - 218 -

- 219 -

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Pr exp exp - 221 -

log - 222 -

exp exp - 223 -

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[ 그림 1] 서울시휘발유소매가격과도매가격추이 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 50 100 150 200 250 300 350-227 -

< 표 1> 서울시소매가격변동의통계량 -1.599 42.399-52.800 12.714 351 < 표 2> 가격상승기 ( ) < 표 3> 가격하락기 ( ) - 228 -

< 표 4> 가격상승기 ( ) < 표 5> 가격하락기 ( - 229 -

[ 그림 2] 소매가격변동추이 ( 서울 ) [ 그림 3] 도매가격변동추이 ( 서울 ) - 230 -

< 표 6> 가격변화의지속성 - 231 -

- 232 -

< 표 7> 가격상승기 (regime 1): 서울 < 표 8> 가격하락기 (regime 2): 서울 - 233 -

< 표 9> 전이확률 (transition probabilities) < 표 10> 기대지속기간 (expected durations) 가격상승기간 상승 상승 가격하락기간 하락 하락 - 234 -

가격하락기간 비대칭성 가격상승기간 - 235 -

접수일 (2017 년 12 월 26 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 1 월 27 일 ) - 236 -

(2007).. 16(4) : 833-854. (2004).,., 04-02,. (2002).. 11(3) :493-513. (2005).. 6(1): 59-78 Bacon, R. (1991). Rockets and Feathers: The Asymmetric Speed of Adjustment of UK Retail Gasoline Prices to Cost Changes. Energy Economics 13 (3) : 211-218. Borenstein, S., Cameron, A.C., and R. Gilbert (1997). Do Gasoline Markets Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?. Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 (1) : 305-339 Duffy-Deno, K. (1996). Retail Price Asymmetries in Local Gasoline Markets. Energy Economics 18 (1) : 81-92 Eckert, A. (2002). Retail Price Cycles and Response Asymmetry. Canadian Journal of Economics 35(1) : 52-77. Eckert, A. and Douglas West (2004). Retail Gasoline Price Cycles across Spatially Dispersed Gasoline Stations. Journal of Law and Economics 47(1): 245-73. Erutku, C. and V. A. Hildebrand (2010). Conspiracy at the Pump. Journal of Law and economics 53 (1) : 223-237 Fruhwirth-Schnatter, S. (2006), Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models, New York: Springer Science+Business Media LLC. - 237 -

Goldfeld, S. M. and R. E. Qunant (1973), A Markov Model for Switching Regression. Journal of Econometrics 1(1): 3-16 Goldfeld, S. M. and R. E. Quant (1976), Studies in Nonlinear Estimation, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company Hamilton, J. D. (1994), Times Series Analysis, Chapter 22, Princeton: Princeton University Press. Maddala, G. S. (1986). Disequilibrium, Self-Selection and Switching Models, Handbook of Econometrics, Chapter 28 in Z.Griliches & M.D. Intrilligator (eds), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 3, Amsterdam: North-Holland Kirchgassner, G. and K. Kubler (1991). Symmetric or Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Oil Market: An Empirical Analysis of the Relations between International and Domestic Prices in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1972-1989, Energy Economics 14 (3): 171-185 Lewis, M. (2009). Temporary Wholesale Gasoline Price Spikes have Long Lasting Retail Effects: The Aftermath of Hurricane Rita, Journal of Law and Economics 52 (3): 581-605. Lewis, M. and M. Noel (2011), The Speed of Gasoline Price Response in Markets with and without Edgeworth Cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics 93(2) : 672-682. Manning, D. H. (1991). Petrol Prices, Oil Prices Rises and Oil Price Falls: Some Evidence for the UK Since 1972. Applied Economics 23(9): 1535~1541. Maskin, E. and J. Tirole (1988). A Theory of Dynamic Oligopoly, II: Price Competition, Kinked Demand Curves, and Edgeworth Cycles. Econometrica 56(3) : 571-99. Noel, M. D. (2007a), Edgeworth Price Cycles: Evidence From The Toronto Retail Gasoline Market. Journal of Industrial Economics, 55(1): 69-92. Noel, M. D. (2007b). Edgeworth Cycles, Cost-based Pricing, and Sticky Pricing in a retail gasoline markets. Review of Economics and Statistics 89 (2): 324-334 - 238 -

Peltzman, S. (2000). Prices Rise Faster than They Fall. Journal of Political Economy 108 (3): 466-502. Reilly, B. and R. Witt (1998). Petrol Price Asymmetries Revisited. Energy Economics 20 (3): 297-308. Wang, Z.(2008). Collusive communication and pricing coordination in a retail gasoline market. Review of Industrial Organization 32 (1): 35-52 Wang, Z.(2009). (Mixed)Strategy timing and oligopoly pricing: Evidence from a repeated game in a timing-controlled gasoline market. Journal of Political Economy, 117(6): 987-1030. Zimmerman, P. R., Yun, J. M., C. T. Taylor (2013). Edgeworth Price Cycles in Gasoline: Evidence from the United States. Review of Industrial Organization 42(3): 297-320 - 239 -

ABSTRACT This Paper explored whether the price pattern of gasoline prices in Korea follows the Edgeworth price cycle. The Edgeworth price cycle represents the pattern of price change in the Markov Nash equilibrium of the dynamic price competition (Maskin and Tirole, 1988). Prices in the cycle decline gradually but increases very rapidly. When the movements of gasoline retail prices in Seoul were investigated, it was found that the frequency of price change is higher in the periods of price decline than the those of price increase but the magnitude of the change was greater during the price hikes. The asymmetric price changes coincides with the price behaviors predicted by the Edgeworth price cycle. A policy implication is that the asymmetric behaviors of prices in price upturns and downturns do not necessarily results from collusion among competitors but they can be the outcome of price cutting competition in the process of long-run profit maximization. Key Words: Edgeworth Price Cycle, Asymmetric Price Response, Gasoline Prices - 240 -

특별호 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 241~264 국내발전부문의온실가스배출요인 분해분석 - 241 -

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< 표 1> 발전부문의온실가스배출량추이 [ 그림 1] 발전부문의온실가스배출량연료별상대적비중 - 246 -

< 표 2> 국내에너지원별발전부문의발전량 - 247 -

[ 그림 2] 국내에너지원별발전부문의발전량추이 - 248 -

< 표 3> 국내에너지원별발전의상대적비중 [ 그림 3] 국내에너지원별발전비중 자료 에너지경제연구원 - 249 -

[ 그림 4] 화석연료발전비중과비화석연료발전의비중 자료 에너지경제연구원 - 250 -

- 251 -

- 252 -

< 표 4> 산업부문의온실가스배출량 LMDI 가법적요인분해분석구조식 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln - 253 -

< 표 5> LMDI 분해분석에사용된자료 - 254 -

- 255 -

< 표 6> 발전부문의온실가스배출변화요인분해분석결과 ( 기준연도 : 2010, 가법적요인분해 ) [ 그림 5] 발전부문의온실가스배출변화요인분해분석결과 (2010 년기준, 가법적요인분해 ) - 256 -

[ 그림 6] 발전부문의온실가스배출변화요인분해분석결과 (2010~2015) (2010 년기준, 가법적요인분해 ) - 257 -

< 표 7> 발전부문의온실가스배출변화요인분해분석결과 ( 전년대비가법적요인분해 ) - 258 -

[ 그림 7] 제조업의온실가스배출변화요인분해분석결과 ( 전년대비가법적요인분해 ) - 259 -

- 260 -

접수일 (2017 년 12 월 14 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 1 월 22 일 ) - 261 -

,, :.,, :.,, :.,, :. (2011). LMDI., 20(2) : 271-299. (2017). 2014. 35(4) : 183-220. (2015) 2008~2011., 14(3) : 203~227 (2015). 24(1) : 189~224. (2014). - LMDI 13(1) : 121~143 (2017). 8(4) : 357-367. Ang, B.W., 2004, Decomposition Analysis for Policy Making in Energy: which is the Preferred Method?, Energy Policy, 32 : 1131-1139. Ang, B.W., 2005, The LMDI Approach to Decomposition Analysis: a Practical Guide, Energy Policy, 33 : 867-871. Ang, B.W., Liu, F.L. and Chew, E., 2003, Perfect decomposition techniques in energy and environmental analysis, Energy Policy, 31 : 1561-1566. - 262 -

Ang, B.W., Zhang, F.L. and Choi, K., 1998, Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition, Energy Policy, 23 : 489-495. Jung, K-H., Kim, S., 2013, LMDI Decomposition analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in the Korean manufacturing sector, Energy Policy 62 : 1245-1253. Kim S., Kim, S., 2016 Decomposition analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions in Korea electricity generation sector, Carbon Management 7 (5-6) : 249-260. Steenhof, P. A. 2007. Decomposition of electricity demand in China s industrial sector. Energy Economics 28: 370384. Steenhof, P. A., and C. J. Weber. 2011. An Assessment of factors impacting Canada s electricity sector's GHG emissions. Energy Policy 29: 40894096. Zhang, M., X. Liu, W. Wang, and M. Zhou. 2013. Decomposition analysis of CO 2 emissions from electricity generation in China. Energy Policy 52: 159165. - 263 -

This paper analyzes a factor decomposition of GHG emissions in domestic electricity generations sector using LMDI (Log Mean Divisia Index) method. These factors are divided into six factors: population effect, electricity intensity effect, electricity generation mix effect (generation mix effect by total fossil fuel generation ratio), power generation mix effect (generation mix effect among fossil fuels), electricity generation efficiency effect, and emission factor effect. The analysis period covers the last 6 years from 2010 to 2015. The results show that the power intensity effect is the biggest factor in the increase of GHG emissions of domestic electricity generation sector, followed by the population effect. The other factors influenced greenhouse gas reduction in the order of power generation efficiency effect, power generation mix effect, and power generation mix effect. These differences mainly result from the combination of emission trading system, RPS, greenhouse gas and energy target management system. In particular, the effect of temporary suspension of nuclear power plants was a major factor in the change in 2013. Key Words : LMDI, Electricity Generation, GHG emissions, Factor Decomposition - 264 -

특별호 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 265~286 LNG 발전소건설및운영에따른 유발효과분석 - 265 -

~ - 266 -

- 267 -

< 표 1> 1500 MW LNG 발전소의경제적영향 : 건설기간 주 는직접효과매출대비계수임 자료 Peabody Energy, 2007 < 표 2> 1500 MW LNG 발전소의경제적영향 : 운영기간 주 는직접효과매출대비계수임 자료 Peabody Energy, 2007-268 -

~ - 269 -

- 270 -

,,,,,,, - 271 -

- 272 -

- 273 -

< 표 2> LNG 복합화력발전사업공사비분류및비중 - 274 -

~ - 275 -

- 276 -

- 277 -

- 278 -

< 표 4> 900 MW LNG발전소건설및운영의유발효과 < 표 5> 900 MW LNG발전소의건설및운영에의한산업별생산, 부가가치및고용유발효과 - 279 -

- 280 -

- 281 -

- 282 -

~ 접수일 (2017 년 12 월 20 일 ), 게재확정일 (2018 년 1 월 28 일 ) - 283 -

(2013),,,, 31 4, pp.181~201 (2015), 7, : (2017), 8, 2017 12 29, : (2012),,, : (2014), 2010, : EIA(2016), Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plant, Washington D.C. : Energy Information Administration Miller, R. E. and P. D. Blaire.(1985), Input-Output Analysis, New York : Prentice-Hall Peabody Energy(2007), Economic Benefits of a Coal-Fueled Power Plant Compared to Natural Gas, https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ml0911/ml091120541.pdf UNEP(2008), Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable, Low Carbon World, New York : UN Environment Programme Power-eng.com (2001), Intergen completes financing on 900 MW project in Mississippi, 12 18, www.power-eng.com/articles/2001/12/intergen-completes-financing-on-900-mw-proje ct-in-mississippi.html (: 2018.01.09.) () (2013) ( ), www.tepco.co.jp/fukushima_hq/images/131129_01-j.pdf (:2018.01.09.) ( ) (2016), - 284 -

(, 1 ), 28 7 13, Tokyo, () () (2011), ( ), 231219-285 -

ABSTRACT The 8th electricity supply basic plan adds significances on environmental protection and public safety to the 7 th planning, which aimed to achieve reliability and efficiency in generation mix. According to the new plan, nuclear and coal-fired power plants are planned to be phased out steadily, while renewable energy and LNG power plants are to enter to the system. Benefits from projected LNG power plants would include economic impacts from constructing and operating new LNG-powered generating stations. This research estimates induced impacts by constructing and operating a 900 MW LNG with the Input-Output Table 2010 benchmark. Construction is estimated to give the production induced coefficient of 2.258, value-added induced coefficient of 0.684, employment induced coefficients of 6.2people/ mil.won. Operations is estimated to result in the production induction coefficient of 1.176, value-added induction coefficient of 0.554, employment induction coefficients of 1.1 people/mil. Won. Comparing to previous studies, induced impacts by increasing LNG power generations are estimated to be equal or greater those induced by renewable energy. Key Words : LNG Power Plant, Induced Analysis, Input-Output Table - 286 -

특별호 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 287~316 지역분산형녹색전력구매제도입에대한 소비자선호도분석 1) - 287 -

- 288 -

- 289 -

~ - 290 -

- 291 -

- 292 -

- 293 -

- 294 -

- 295 -

- 296 -

< 표 1> 녹색전력구매제의속성과수준 - 297 -

[ 그림 1] 신재생에너지원별정의및장 단점 - 298 -

[ 그림 2] 녹색전력구매제가입시제공되는혜택의종류와내용 - 299 -

[ 그림 3] 녹색전력구매제설문선택집합예시 - 300 -