( ) ( e- ) ( ) ( ) ( )

, IMF., 1000.,..,. SAS ARIMA OLS, SUR, 3SLS. 2004-2006 1999 1-2003 12 5. 2004-2006 9.31%, 5.37% 8.08% 40%..

< > 2004-2006 2004 2005 2006 131,752,662 138,832,342 150,060,656 65,500,904 64,520,577 64,367,468 66,251,758 74,312,065 85,713,188 (%) 49.7 46.5 42.9 (%) 9.31 5.37 8.08, 2004 4% 6,550,. 15% 2006 8,500.. 30,.. -.. -. -, 1 ( ),,, ( ), 5 ( ).

.. 1..... 5,..,....,..

,.. 1985.. 5,,.,.,.,,. (Economy of Scale),. (, ),.,,,.,.

,.

1. 15 1. 15 2. 16 2. 18 1. 18 1) 18 2) 21 2. 23 1) 23 2), 25 3) 29 3. 34 1) 34 2) 37 (1) 38 (2) 39 (3) 40 (4) 41

(5) 42 3) 43 3. 47 1. 47 1) 47 2) 49 3) 51 4) 2004-2006 2 5 2. 53 1) 54 (1) 54 (2) 57 2) 60 3) 65 4. 70 74

< 1> 42 < 2> (Asia, Pacific) 6 2 < 3> 03 < 4> 13 < 5> 23 < 6> 43 < 7> 43 < 8> 93 < 9> 24 < 10> 5 34 < 11> 54 < 12> 64 < 13> 05 < 14> 15 < 15> 2004-2006 2 5 < 16> (Y K ) OLS 61 < 17> (Y K ) SUR 62 < 18> (Y K ) 3SLS 63 < 19> (Y F ) OLS 65 < 20> (Y F ) SUR 66 < 21> (Y F ) 3SLS 67

< 1> 2 < 2> (Global) 3 2 < 3> (Asia/Pacific) 5 2 < 4> 1998-2003e 7 2 < 5> 82 < 6> 53 < 7> 63 < 8> 73 < 9> 04 < 10> 1 44 < 11> 54 < 12> 94

1. 1.. 5 2.4 2003 1 2. 5.8 1.5. 2004 < > < > 1000 1000. IMF,..,.,.,.,,. 3... 1 장. 서론 15

. 2.,.,. 2004-2006...,., 1999 2003 5. 30.,,,, 5 1,. SAS, ARIMA OLS, SUR, 3SLS..., 30,.,,,. 16 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

,. 1990,,..,,,. 1 장. 서론 17

2. 1. 1). IMF.. (-).,...,..,,,,,... Hand 1936-1999 (cinema admissions) ARIMA. Hand ARIMA,,,. 18 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

1936-1999 ARIMA,,.. 1) Blanco BaÑos Pino 1968 (cointegration). (a luxury good),.,,.. 2) Dewenter & Westermanny 1950 1999 49,,.,,.,.,. 3). Macmillan & Smith. 1950 1997 Vector Autoregression (VAR),,.. 4) Blanco BaÑos Pino, 1) Hand, C. (2002), The Distribution and Predictability of Cinema Admissions, Journal of Cultural Economics, 26, 1, 53-64 2) Blanco, F. & BaÑos Pino, J. (1997), Cinema Demand in Spain: A Cointegration Analysis, Journal of Cultural Economics, 21, 57-75. 3) Dewenter, R. & Westermanny, M. (2002). Cinema Demand in Germany. http://smye2002.univ-paris1.fr/program/paper/c7_wes.pdf. 4) Macmillan, P. & Smith, I. (2001). Explaining Post-War Cinema Attendance in Great Britain. Journal of Cultural Economics, 25, 91-108. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 19

Dewenter & Westermanny..,..,,. 5), (+).,..,,.,.,., 1990 6).. 7). 5) (1998),,, 18-19. 6) The Economist, Nov 19, 1994 v333 n7890 p.68. 7) Simonoff, J. S & Sparrow, I. R., Predicting movie grosses: Winners and losers, blockbusters and sleepers. Chance 13, 3(2000), 15-24. 20 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

, 10 8). 10. De Vany & Walls., 9)... 2),,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,.,.,. S/W,,,. (high risk high return).,. 8) Prosser, E. K., How early can video revenue be accurately predicted? Journal of Advertising Research, 42, 2(2002), 47-55. 9) De Vany, A. & Walls, W. D., Does Hollywood make too many R-rated movies? Risk, stochastic dominance, and the illusion of expectation. The Journal of Business, 75,3(2002), 425-451. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 21

< 1> 캐릭터 투자 CATV OST 영화 배급 상영 DVD 게임 영화제작 위성 TV TV 출판 영상 관광지..,. 22 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

2. 1) 2000 9%. 2006 5%. < 2> (Global) ( 단위 : 백만달러 ) 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Filmed Entertainment < 1>.. 2005 0%. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 23

< 1> ( : ) ( ) ( ) 1995 146,460 9,125,940 12,458 1.37 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 146,884 (0.3%) 142,408 (-3.0%) 144,849 (1.7%) 149,061 (2.9%) 149,005 (0.0%) 149,103 (0.1%) 149,370 (0.2%) 149,541 (0.1%) 149,658 (0.1%) 149,713 (0.0%) 149,810 (0.1%) 149,837 (0.0%) 149,800 (0.0%) 149,723 (-0.1%) 149,620 (-0.1%) * 자료 : Global Film Exhibition & Distribution, 2001. * ( ) 은성장률. 9,084,549 (-0.5%) 9,477,284 (4.3%) 8,629,562 (-8.9%) 9,241,830 (7.1%) 9,123,555 (-1.3%) 9,205,890 (0.9%) 9,342,804 (1.5%) 9,498,625 (1.7%) 9,675,846 (1.9%) 9,853,615 (1.8%) 10,032,808 (1.8%) 10,213,551 (1.8%) 10,396,901 (1.8%) 10,582,867 (1.8%) 10,771,457 (1.9%) 13,109 (5.2%) 14,398 (9.8%) 15,562 (8.1%) 16,345 (5.0%) 16,831 (3.0%) 17,489 (3.9%) 18,145 (3.8%) 18,801 (3.6%) 19,461 (3.5%) 20,131 (3.4%) 20,816 (3.4%) 21,517 (3.4%) 22,239 (3.4%) 22,984 (3.4%) 23,753 (3.3%) 1.44 (5.7%) 1.52 (5.3%) 1.80 (18.7%) 1.77 (-1.9%) 1.84 (4.3%) 1.90 (3.0%) 1.94 (2.2%) 1.98 (1.9%) 2.01 (1.6%) 2.04 (1.6%) 2.07 (1.6%) 2.11 (1.5%) 2.14 (1.5%) 2.17 (1.5%) 2.21 (1.5%) 1995 91, 2010 107, 2,., 24 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

. 2), /,, 2002 2006 4.7% 10). 2000 6%. 2006 5% /. < 3> (Asia/Pacific) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Film ed Entertainm ent Global Film Exhibition & Distribution (2001), 1995 10) PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2002-2006: Forecast and economic analysis of 13 industry segments, 2002 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 25

2010,. < 2> (Asia, Pacific) ( 단위 : 천명 ) 1995 69,930 2,500,000 26,800 3,380,000 127,040 18,128 45,130 1996 73,950 2,40,0000 22,200 3,380,000 119,575 17,258 42,268 1997 76,000 2,400,000 26,900 3,580,000 140,719 17,347 47,524 1998 79,800 2,300,000 21,500 2,660,000 153,102 16,397 50,180 1999 88,000 2,300,000 19,888 3,264,000 145,000 14,774 54,720 2000 90,250 2,200,000 20,700 3,248,000 136,300 14,700 61,500 2001 92,326 2,145,000 21,218 3,296,720 144,478 14,994 66,420 2002 94,357 2,145,000 21,684 3,346,171 151,702 15,219 70,405 2003 96,338 2,166,450 22,161 3,396,363 158,528 15,371 73,925 2004 98,265 2,209,779 22,649 3,447,309 164,870 15,525 76,882 2005 100,132 2,253,975 23,147 3,499,018 170,970 15,680 79,189 2006 101,935 2,299,054 23,656 3,551,504 176,954 15,837 80,773 2007 103,667 2,345,035 24,177 3,604,776 182,793 15,995 81,580 2008 105,326 2,391,936 24,709 3,658,848 188,643 16,155 82,396 2009 106,906 2,439,775 25,252 3,713,731 194,491 16,317 83,220 2010 108,403 2,488,570 25,808 3,769,437 200,325 16,480 84,052 * 자료 : Global Film Exhibition & Distribution, 2001. < 2>,... 1995 33 8, 1998. 26 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

. 1995 25 2003, 2005 24 8.,,. < 2>, Global Film Exhibition & Distribution 2010 8 4. 2002 1.. < 4> 1998-2003e bn Yen 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e %Grow th 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0-0.05-0.1 bn Yen % Grow th. Snapshots International JAPAN CINEMAS 2003 (2003) 2003 2002. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 27

, 1998 2002 0.4%. 2001 17.1%. 2002 2007 0.5%. < 5> * 자료 : http://www.afc.gov.au/gtp/wchistsince1900.html#rav73123 28 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

3) 7 90%. 1990 158 2001 189...,. 1998 1 34%, 2002 46%.,, DVD,.,,. < 3> 1990 2000. 1990 2 3 2000 3 7 10 37.8%. 1990 11 2000 14., 1. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 29

( : ) < 3> ( ) ( ) 1 MPAA 1990 23,689 1.189 5.022 4.23 4.8 158 385 1991 23,814 1.141 4.803 4.21 4.5 150 423 1992 25,214 1.173 4.871 4.15 4.6 141 425 1993 25,626 1.244 5.154 4.14 4.8 156 440 1994 26,689 1.292 5.396 4.18 5.0 166 410 1995 27,805 1.263 5.493 4.35 4.8 212 370 1996 29,690 1.339 5.911 4.42 5.0 215 420 1997 31,640 1.388 6.366 4.59 5.2 219 461 1998 34,186 1.481 6.949 4.69 5.5 221 490 1999 37,185 1.465 7.448 5.08 5.4 213 442 2000 37,396 1.421 7.661 5.40 5.2 191 461 2001 36,764 1.487 8.413 5.66 5.3 188 482 2002 35,280 1.639 9.520 5.81 5.7 220 467 2003 35,786 1.574 9.489 6.03 5.4 194 473 * 자료 : Deal Memo, 2001 년 3 월 12 일 (1990 ~ 2000 년 ), 2001 ~ 2003 년도자료는 MPAA (2004) 자료임.. 2001 21, 2002 15 1... 0.5%. 30 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

1 < 4> 2 Top10 ( ) ( ) Top10 1991 7 1 1,238 4,800 25.8% 1992 8 0 1,237 4,870 25.4% 1993 7 1 1,400 5,150 27.2% 1994 10 2 1,580 5,400 29.3% 1995 7 0 1,230 5,490 22.4% 1996 13 2 1,582 5,910 26.8% 1997 12 2 1,592 6,370 25.0% 1998 15 2 1,847 6,950 26.6% 1999 17 4 2,079 7,450 27.9% 2000 19 2 1,735 7,670 22.6% 2001 20 5 2,138 8,410 25.4% * Bear, Stearns Co. 내부보고서.,. < 5>, 14 0.95. 1980 9 4 69%, 1985 72% 1990 2001 61%., 1997 10%., 1997.,.. 1999, 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 31

. < 5> 1980 9.4 (69%) - 4.3 (31%) - 13.7-1985 16.8 (72%) 16.4% 6.5 (28%) - 23.3-1990 26.8 (69%) 14.2% 12.0 (31%) - 38.8-1991 26.1 (68%) -2.4% 12.1 (32%) 0.8% 38.2-1.6% 1992 28.9 (68%) 10.4% 13.5 (32%) 11.6% 42.4 11.0% 1993 29.9 (68%) 3.6% 14.1 (32%) 4.5% 44.0 3.8% 1994 34.3 (68%) 14.6% 16.1 (32%) 14.1% 50.4 14.5% 1995 36.4 (67%) 6.1% 17.7 (33%) 10.5% 54.1 7.5% 1996 39.8 (67%) 9.5% 19.8 (33%) 11.8% 59.6 10.2% 1997 53.4 (71%) 34.1% 22.3 (29%) 12.2% 75.7 26.9% 1998 52.7 (68%) -1.4% 25.3 (32%) 13.7% 78.0 3.1% 1999 51.5 (68%) -2.3% 24.5 (32%) -3.1% 76.0-2.5% 2000 54.8 (67%) 6.5% 27.3 (33%) 11.3% 82.1 8.0% 2001 47.7 (61%) -13.0% 31.0 (39%) 13.5% 78.7-4.1% 2002 58.8 (65%) 23.3% 30.6 (35%) -1.3% 89.4 14.0% 2003 63.8 (62%) 8.5% 39.1 (38%) 27.8% 102.9 15.1% * MPAA (2004). * ( ) 은점유율, 단위는백만달러,. 11),,.,,, AOL 11) (Wall Street Journal, 2001, Mar 7) 32 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

2001 2,100, 1..,. 1. 2003 < 3 > 1 3 7. < 3 > 1 7 5 1 4, < > 1 4 8.,,. (throwing money at a movie doesn't assure success). 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 33

3. 1) 1998 < > 600 500. 2004 < > < > 2004 60%., 2002 1, 1998 1 3 2003 5 8 5 4.5. < 6> 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ( ) 5,018 5,472 6,462 8,936 10,513 11,947 1,259 2,172 2,271 4,481 5,082 6,391 3,759 3,300 4,191 4,455 5,431 5,556 (,%) 5.59 9.0 18.09 38.2 17.6 13.6 2003 52.9% 1998 25.1% 2. < 7> 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004. * 25.1 39.7 35.1 50.1 48.3 52.9 61.9 * 2004.1 상반기는서울기준 1970 1990. 1990 2000 34 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

. 2002 2.2, 2003 2.48, (Filmed Market), DVD.. 1980. 1990.. < 6> 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 한국영화외국영화합계 ( 만명 ). 1971., 1970 200 100. 1990 70. 1985. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 35

1990 400. 250. 450 < 7> 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 한국영화제작편수 외국영화수입편수 1960.. 1960 1 5. 1969 1 7 8. 1 1974. 1970. TV 1960. 1980 1990 800.,. 36 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

< 8> 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 1990, 1986 1988 1989 26.3%. 1990, 1990. 1990. 2000 732 2003 1,132. 2)..,. 2000 CJ..., 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 37

.,,,, 5. (1) 1990 (pre-sale). 1990,, TV IMF. 2000. 1998.,., 2002, 68.9%. 12) CJ,, CGV,,,,., 2003 3,306,, 64 6,826. 13), 12.3%. 14) 81.2%.. 2003 2005.. 12),, 2003,, 2003 13),, 2003 14),, 38 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

(2) 2000..., 1990,.,. 1990..,,. 1985. 1990 2000 3 3. 20%. < 8> 2001 918 390 268 511 2,087 2002 1,081 428 290 557 2,356 2003 1,535 680 351 739 3,305 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 39

.,. (3). 2000.., 2000 30-40%. < 9> 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1996 9 1 1997 11 2 1998 12 3 1999 14 5 2000 15 6.5 2001 16.2 9.3 2002 24.5 12.7 순제작비 마케팅비용 40 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

... 1990 < >, 175 67, 2004 < > 443 500 39 1000., DVD 3 (hold-back).. (4) 1998 CGV., 1500 10. 1000 8. 5, 8. 15). 7, CGV,,.,,. 20. 15) Francis Delon, (2000), Les Multiplexes, 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 41

.,,. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (%) < 9> 626 577 511 497 567 588 720 818 977 1132-7.83-11.44-2.74 14.08 3.70 22.45 13.61 19.44 15.86,.,,,,. (5) 5,. 5 10% 16). < 10>. 5 2001, 30 40 2.14 3.2 70~90%. 17),,. 16), (2002), 5,, p 8-9 17),,. 42 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

< 10> 5 DVD DVD 5 /, PC / 출처 : 고정민, 정연승, 위의글. 3).,...,,. 1995 2% 5%. 1998,.,,..,. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 43

만원 1400 < 10> 1 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 출처 : 재정경제부.,.. 30 6%. 1987 43 2001 84 2.,. 44 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 < 11> 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 210 208 206 204 202 200 198 196 194 가구당월평균교양오락지출 ( 천원 ) 총근로시간 ( 시간 )_ 출처 : 통계청 (2003). 한국의사회지표.,.,,.. < 11> $5.65 $40.00 $45.00 NBA $50.00 $60.00 NFL $75.00 * Bear, Stearns Co. 내부보고서. 2 장. 영화산업의특성과규모 45

53.3%. < 12> 1997 2000 2003 13.5 5.1 4.0 27.3 11.6 10.4 / 13.3 6.7 6.3 15.4 7.7 5.2 20.2 10.9 11.1 4.1 2.0 1.1 53.1 40.0 53.3 / 15.3 8.6 10.3 출처 : 문화관광부, < 문화향수실태조사 >, 2003. 46 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

3...,. 5.,. 30. 1. 1).,., ( )... 1999 1 2003 12. 1999 1999. Box-Jekins ARIMA. Box-Jekins ARIMA (nonstationary time series) (stationary time series) ARMA 3 장. 계량분석 47

. ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving-average model) ARIMA(p,d,q). p q. d. d ARIMA(p,d,q). p q X t = iy t -i + i = 1 v t -j j = 0, X: t t v: t Box-Jekins 3., (model identification), (parameter estimation), (model diagnostic checking) ARIMA..,....... SAS V8.1. 48 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

< 12>. < 12>. 규모 25000000 < 12> 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 1999년 1월 1999년 4월 1999년 7월 1999년 10월 2000년 1월 2000년 4월 2000년 7월 2000년 10월 2001년 1월 2001 년 4 월 한국영화관객 2) 2001 년 7 월 2001 년 10 월 2002 년 1 월 2002 년 4 월 2002 년 7 월 수입영화관객 2002 년 10 월 2003 년 1 월 2003 년 4 월 2003 년 7 월 2003 년 10 월 Box-Jekins 3. 18) ARIMA. ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller).,. (d=12)., AIC MSE (p=(1,3,6,9,12)) (q=0) ARIMA.. 18) 평균이시간 t 와무관하며분산이존재하며변수간공분산이오직시차에만의존하는시계열자료를정상시계열자료라고한다. 일반적으로자료의정상성은 ADF 검정법을활용하여판단된다. 3 장. 계량분석 49

X t =0.27890+0.05764X t -1-0.10643X t -3 +0.18618X t -6 +0.25201X t -9-0.45536X t -12 +v t (3.09) (0.57) (0.57) (- 0.86) (-0.86) (1.38) (1.38) 2.09) (2.09) (- 3.61) (-3.61) X t t, ( ) t. ² 2. 0.95. 3 < 13>. < 13> 2004 2005 2006 L95 U95 L95 U95 L95 U95 1 3876572 1008680 14898486 4409996.4 735669.5 26435877 3986085 427734.3 37146599 2 6121376 1577208 23757964 6137383.1 1022012 36856175 5984102 637386.8 56181693 3 3028279 780141.7 11754884 2941834.3 489874.8 17666534 2950692 314209 27709522.6 4 5790175 1490724 22489820 4697346.7 760383.1 29018356 5235856 557105.7 49208241 5 6866076 1767655 26669801 6093204.2 982470 37789588 6555301 697497.3 61608803.1 6 5232201 1347016 20323389 5376345.6 866680.6 33351493 5308426 564824.4 49890529.3 7 5362410 1287271 22338289 5810871.7 909769.3 37115155 5386272 555626.3 52214821.3 8 4942424 1181708 20671396 5448786.3 852068.5 34843761 5000802 514695.3 48588008.1 9 6399248 1529825 26768018 6114629 956165.9 39102719 6214166 639497.5 60384689 10 6584229 1447347 29952775 6463912.5 990732 42173026 6513844 650033.4 65273822.6 11 5456782 1194150 24935293 5066745.7 775923.9 33085605 5305610 528505.3 53262465 12 5841133 1278083 26695319 5959521.3 912614.5 38916645 5926312 590295.7 59497599.5 65500904 15889808 271255433 64520577 10254365 406354933 64367468 6677411 620966794 50 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

3) Box-Jekins 3.. (d=12). (p) (q). Box-Jekins 3 ARIMA ((1,12),12,0).. Y t =0.13442+ 0.3442Y t -1-0.07038Y t -12 +v t (4.59) (- 0.54) (- 2.93) Y t t, ( ) t. ² 2 1.91. 3 < 14>. < 14> 2004 2005 2006 L95 U95 L95 U95 L95 U95 1 8253984 4688110 14532137 9176052 4779220 17617925 10658366 4887431 23243449 2 4562397 2587733 8043900 5316970 2769204 10208770 6026893 2762298 13149719 3 4516700 2561797 7963387 4834990 2518177 9283356.5 5694271 2609839 12424032 4 3475291 1971127 6127281 3769391 1963188 7237367 4402414 2017746 9605396 5 5370072 3045815 9467967 6228046 3243713 11958074 7071574 3241094 15429097 6 4229670 2398998 7457325 5260822 2739960 10100970 5807886 2661911 12671922 7 8258713 4684203 14560926 8945148 4658843 17175008 10501310 4813035 22912259 8 8276861 4694497 14592923 8985697 4679962 17252864 10492872 4809168 22893848 9 3663534 2077895 6459172 4453990 2319743 8551822.2 4955792 2271374 10812783 3 장. 계량분석 51

10 3205519 1818116 5651645 3328390 1733503 6390628.6 3976833 1822690 8676844 11 4565614 2589540 8049627 5389952 2807214 10348904 6063680 2779149 13230026 12 7873403 4465662 13881586 8622617 4490861 16555737 10061299 4611366 21952221 66251758 37583492 116787881 74312065 38703587 142681427 85713188 39287102 187001597 4) < 13> < 14> < 15>. 2004-2006 9.31%, 5.37% 8.08% 40%.. 2004 2003 4% 6,550. < 15> 2004-2006 2004 2005 2006 131,752,662 138,832,342 150,060,656 65,500,904 64,520,577 64,367,468 66,251,758 74,312,065 85,713,188 (%) 49.7 46.5 42.9 (%) 9.31 5.37 8.08 2005 2004 1.5% 2006 0.2% 6,400.. 15% 2006 8,500.. 3 5. 1999 72.0%, 4.5%, 97.3%, 13.4% 25.4%, -12.2%, 27%, 63.0%, 21.9%, 52 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

23%.. 10., 20%, 30%, 5%. 60%.. < 15>.. 2004, < > < >.. 2....,,....... 3 장. 계량분석 53

3 OLS, SUR 3SLS.. 1) (1).......,,... 54 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

( ㄱ )... (-)...,. ( ㄴ ) 1. 1 1... (+) (-)... ( ㄷ )... 3 장. 계량분석 55

...,..... ( ㄹ )........,... 56 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

( ㅁ ) 5 5....... ( ㅂ )..... (economies of scale) (economies of scope)... (2). 3 장. 계량분석 57

.. 3. (OLS)..... 1: (OLS : Ordinary Least Squares) Y K = 0 + 1 X 1 + 2 X 2 + 3 X 3 + 4 X 4 + 5 X 5 + 6 X 6 + 7 X 7 + 9 X 9 + K Y F =ž 0 +ž 1 X 1 +ž 2 X 2 +ž 3 X 3 +ž 4 X 4 +ž 5 X 5 +ž 6 X 6 +ž 8 X 8 + F Y K : Y F : X 1 : X 2 : X 3 : 1 X 4 : X 5 : X 6 : X 7 : 5 X 8 : 5 X 9 : 58 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

. (Autocorrelation) (heteroscedasticity).... SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regressions) 3SLS (3-Stage Least Squares). SUR. SUR.. SUR,. SUR OLS.. SUR. SUR OLS. Y K = 0 + 1 X 1 + 2 X 2 + 3 X 3 + 4 X 4 + 5 X 5 + 6 X 6 + 7 X 7 + 9 X 9 + K Y F =ž 0 +ž 1 X 1 +ž 2 X 2 +ž 3 X 3 +ž 4 X 4 +ž 5 X 5 +ž 6 X 6 +ž 8 X 8 + F 3SLS. 3SLS 2.. 3SLS. Y K = 0 + 1 X 1 + 2 X 2 + 3 X 3 + 4 X 4 + 5 X 5 + 6 X 6 + 7 X 7 + 9 X 9 + 10 Y F + K Y F =ž 0 +ž 1 X 1 +ž 2 X 2 +ž 3 X 3 +ž 4 X 4 +ž 5 X 5 +ž 6 X 6 +ž 8 X 8 +ž 10 Y K + F 3 장. 계량분석 59

SUR. 3SLS OLS,.,. 3 3SLS. SAS. OLS SUR 3SLS..... 2) 3. 3. 3 OLS. OLS < 16>. (Autocorrelation) (heteroscedasticity). < 16> - (DW) 1.95. SAS LM.. 95% 60 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

,,,, 5. (-) (+). 1% 0.66%, 1% 0.83%. (-) 1% 1.3%. < 16> (Y K ) OLS t p Intercept 27.03 2.07 0.0515 X 1 ( ) 0.24 0.54 0.5931 X 2 ( ) 0.21 0.32 0.7522 X 3 (1 ) 0.21 0.46 0.6474 X 4 ( ) -1.37-3.33 0.0032 X 5 ( ) 0.50 1.64 0.1166 X 6 ( ) -0.66-4.70 0.0001 X 7 (5 ) -0.20 1.30 0.2092 X 9 ( ) 0.83 5.79 <0.0001 Root MSE 0.25647 SBC 23.402 AIC 10.791 R-Square 0.8789 DW 1.9463 SUR 3SLS, 0.5477 SUR 3SLS. SUR. SUR < 17>. SUR 95% 3 장. 계량분석 61

OLS,. (-).. < 17> (Y K ) SUR t p Intercept 12.09 1.63 0.1184 X 1 ( ) 0.23 0.52 0.6061 X 2 ( ) 0.15 0.24 0.8015 X 3 (1 ) 0.43 1.04 0.3088 X 4 ( ) -1.22-3.14 0.0050 X 5 ( ) 0.56 1.85 0.0785 X 6 ( ) -0.74-5.54 <0.0001 X 7 (5 ) -0.08-0.57 0.5765 X 9 ( ) 0.75 6.22 0.0001 Weighted Root MSE 0.9705 Weighted System R-Square 0.9273 3SLS. 3SLS < 18>. 3SLS 95%,, 5,, 1,. 3SLS OLS, OLS. OLS 5. 5 62 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

(+). < 18> (Y K ) 3SLS t p Y F ( ) -0.44-0.21 0.8382 Intercept 10.73 0.73 0.4751 X 1 ( ) 0.16 0.16 0.8780 X 2 ( ) 1.25 0.53 0.5986 X 3 (1 ) 0.49 0.76 0.4539 X 4 ( ) -1.01-0.74 0.4703 X 5 ( ) 0.88 2.10 0.0483 X 6 ( ) -0.99-4.93 <0.0001 X 7 (5 ) 0.51 2.26 0.0350 X 9 ( ) 0.84 3.04 0.0064 System Weighted MSE 0.7326 System Weighted R-Square 0.9420 3.,..,. 3 장. 계량분석 63

.....,.. SUR 3SLS 90%, 95%.. (economies of scale) (economies of scope)..,. 5,. < > < >...... 64 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

3) OLS < 19>. (Autocorrelation) (heteroscedasticity). < 19> - (DW) 2.43. SAS LM.. 95%, 1 90%.,,, 5.. < 19> (Y F ) OLS t p Intercept -0.17-0.07 0.9462 X 1 ( ) 0.54 2.25 0.0346 X 2 ( ) 0.45 1.19 0.2466 X 3 (1 ) 0.54 2.98 0.0069 X 4 ( ) 0.55 2.60 0.0165 X 5 ( ) 0.02 0.13 0.8947 X 6 ( ) -0.13-2.05 0.0522 X 8 (5 ) -0.20-1.79 0.0879 Root MSE: 0.13409 SBC: -17.5151 AIC: -28.7247 Total R-Square: 0.9390 DW: 2.4355 3 장. 계량분석 65

SUR. SUR < 20>. SUR 95% OLS, 1, 90%. (+). 1 (+) 1... < 20> (Y F ) SUR t p Intercept -0.09-0.04 0.9703 X 1 ( ) 0.52 2.18 0.0402 X 2 ( ) 0.52 1.45 0.1625 X 3 (1 ) 0.51 2.90 0.0084 X 4 ( ) 0.59 2.90 0.0082 X 5 ( ) 0.01 0.05 0.9596 X 6 ( ) -0.12-1.95 0.0635 X 8 (5 ) -0.16-1.66 0.1118 Weighted Root MSE 0.9705 Weighted System R-Square 0.9273 3SLS. 3SLS <1 21>. 3SLS 95%. OLS SUR. 3 OLS SUR 3SLS SUR 3SLS 66 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

(System Weighted MSE) 3SLS SUR. SUR (+) (-). 3SLS (-) (+). < 21> (Y F ) 3SLS t p Y K ( ) 0.10 1.14 0.2653 Intercept 2.74 0.84 0.4123 X 1 ( ) 0.31 1.21 0.2395 X 2 ( ) 1.18 2.76 0.0117 X 3 (1 ) 0.06 0.23 0.8193 X 4 ( ) 0.87 3.78 0.0011 X 5 ( ) -0.14-0.81 0.4264 X 6 ( ) 0.05 0.40 0.6916 X 8 (5 ) 0.10 0.76 0.4585 System Weighted MSE 0.7326 System Weighted R-Square 0.9420,. 3 3SLS. 3SLS. 3SLS, 95%. 1% 1.18%. 1990., 3 장. 계량분석 67

. 1% 0.87%..., 1,,, 5..,...,..,.,.,...,. 1962 1985 68 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

..., 5..,.,.. 3 장. 계량분석 69

4....,...,.,.. (+),.,,...,,...,. 70 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

,...,.,., ( ), ( ).. 1000 < > < >. (Economy of Scale),.,. (, ),.,,,.. 1993 2000 3.3%. 1991 48,045, 2000 39,879. 5.9%..,., 4 장. 결론 71

.,..,,. Fee,. 19),,. SPC(Special Purpose Company)..,,, DVD, TV 25%,.. AOL.,,.,,.., 19) Fee, C. E(2002)., The costs of outside equity control: Evidence from motion picture financing decisions. The Journal of Business, 75, 4, 681-711. 72 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

,.,. 1980 /, 2000,... 4 장. 결론 73

참고문헌 n, (2002), 5. (2003),. (2003),. (1998),,. (2003),.,, (2001),., (2003), 2003,... (2003),, 10,. (2001),. (2003), 2002... n Blanco, F. & BaÑos Pino, J. (1997), Cinema Demand in Spain: A Cointegration Analysis, Journal of Cultural Economics, 21, 57-75. Dewenter, R. & Westermanny, M. (2002). Cinema Demand in Germany. http://smye2002.univ-paris1.fr/program/paper/c7_wes.pdf. De Vany, A. & Walls, W. D. (2002). Does Hollywood make too many R-rated movies? Risk, stochastic dominance, and the illusion of expectation. The Journal of Business, 75,3, 425-451. 74 한국영화산업규모예측과성장요인분석

Fee, C. E. (2002). The costs of outside equity control: Evidence from motion picture financing decisions. The Journal of Business, 75, 4, 681-711. Francis Delon, (2000), Les Multiplexes, Hand, C. (2002), The Distribution and Predictability of Cinema Admissions, Journal of Cultural Economics, 26, 1, 53-64 Macmillan, P. & Smith, I. (2001). Explaining Post-War Cinema Attendance in Great Britain. Journal of Cultural Economics, 25, 91-108. PriceWaterhouseCoopers (2002). Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2002-2006: Forecast and economic analysis of 13 industry segments. Prosser, E. K. (2002). How early can video revenue be accurately predicted? Journal of Advertising Research, 42, 2, 47-55. Simonoff, J. S & Sparrow, I. R. (2000). Predicting movie grosses: Winners and losers, blockbusters and sleepers. Chance 13, 3, 15-24. Snapshots International (2003). JAPAN CINEMAS 2003. Vogel, H. L. (2001). Entertainment Industry Economics, 5th Ed., Cambridge University Press. 참고문헌 75

2004 8 25 2004 8 25 _ _ 130-010 206-46 T. 02-9587-656 F. 02-9587-625 http://www.kofic.or.kr _ 100-193 3 295-4 505 T. 02-2269-1265 F. 02-2268-0704 C 2004.. : 5,000