Sector comment Korea / IT 3 May 2016 OVERWEIGHT Stocks under coverage Company Rating Price Target price, Analyst 3774 3831 jinho.cho@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures
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, A Mirae A Analyst, 3774 383 Asset Securities 31, jinho.cho@m miraeasset.com 4
조진호, Analyst, A 3774 383 31, jinho.cho@m miraeasset.com IT Figure 3 2016~2017 xev 신차 라인업 업 자료: Inside EV, 미래에셋증권 권 리서치센터 Figure 4 2016 년 현재 재 판매중인 xev 라인업 제원 Maker Model Hyund ai Ioniq R (USD) RP Hyund ai H Sonata HEV 26,000 16 4,8 855 a Toyota Prius Plug g in 24,200 16.5 Lexus CT 31,250 BMW i8 140,700 BMW X5 PHEV Audi on A3 E-Tro - KWh length (mm) width (mm)) 8.9 4,4 470 1,780 0 height (mm)) (cc) 1,450 0 1,580 141 HP Torque (kg.m) ( 0~100k m/h (S) 27 10.2 1,865 5 1,475 5 1,999 207 40.2-4,4 480 1,750 0 1,495 5 1,798 136 14.5-8.8 350 4,3 1,765 5 1,445 5 1,798 136 45.9 - - 4,6 689 1,942 2 1,291 1,499 362 58.2 4.4 - - 4,8 886 1,938 8 1,762 2 1,997 313 35.7 6.8 37,900 8.8 310 4,3 1,785 5 1,425 5 1,395 204 35.7 7.6 Audi Q7 E-Tro on Quatro - - 5,0 050 1,970 0 1,740 0 1,984 367 71.4 5.9 he Porsch Cayenne S E-Hybrid 93,200 9.4 855 4,8 1,939 9 1,705 5 2,995 416 60.2 5.9 Benz S-Class PHEV 95,650-5,120 1,900 0 1,500 0 3,498 306 37.7 6.8 GM Bolt 30,000 16.5 4,5 582 1,809 9 1,433 3 1,490 149 40.6 - VW Golf GTE 28,995 8.8 4,2 64 1,790 0 1,436 6 1,390 148 34.8 7.6 자료: 각 사, 사 미래에셋증권 리서 서치센터 Mirae Asset A Securities 5
, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (MWH) (USD m) 35,000 PHEV BEV 16,000 PHEV BEV 30,000 14,000 25,000 12,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 10,000 4,000 5,000 2,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E (USD m) (%) 50,000 EV HEV % of Total LIB Market (R) 70 40,000 60 50 30,000 40 20,000 30 20 10,000 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 0 (Unit m) (%) 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 EV HEV % of xev to New Car Sales % of EV to New Car Sales 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 0 6
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (USD m) 60,000 Market cap (LHS) PSR (RHS) (%) 16 (USD m) 12,000 Revenue (LHS) OPM (RHS) (%) 20 40,000 12 10,000 8,000 0 (20) (40) 8 6,000 (60) 20,000 4 4,000 2,000 (80) (100) (120) 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E (140) 8
, A Mirae A Analyst, 3774 383 Asset Securities 31, jinho.cho@m miraeasset.com 9
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com 380km 117km 115km 126km 174km 183km 199km 166km 310km +120km w/ Range Extender 110km 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 구모델 RAV4 EV Model S Model 3 i3 (in km/l) 118.1 16.0 15.3 15.0 14.6 14.1 13.3 13.0 2013 US Average = 13.1 12.6 12.1 11.9 11.9 Tesla Mitsubishi Honda Nissan Toyota VW BMW Ford GM Daimler Fiat-Chrysler Volvo 11
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (Wh/L) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Panasonic NCA Li-Tec NCM AESC LMO- NCA Domestic A NCM-LMO Domestic B NCM-LMO Lishen Tianjin LFP 300 250 200 150 100 (Wh/kg) 50 0 Panasonic NCA Li-Tec NCM AESC LMO-NCA Domestic A Domestic B NCM-LMO NCM-LMO Lishen Tianjin LFP 18
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com Cell Manufacturing Component Raw materials Samusng Cathode Nichia Li salts Honeywell Panasonic JGC Morita Umicore - Nippon Denko - Anode Hitachi Additives UBE Kureha Dow BTR BASF LS Mtron Solvay Separators Clegard Lithium Rockwood Lithium Asahi Kasei SQM Evonik FMC Lithum Bosch, A123, Systems, Johnson Controls, Dow Kokam SK Innovation Continental, Li-Tec, GS Yuasa, EV Energy NEC, Yuasa Du Pont Binders Zeon Solvents BASF JSR Dow Kureha Solvay Solvay Ashland New entrants BASF Du Pont Evonik Cell Housing DNP Showa Denko Mitsubishi Toppan Panasonic, Sanyo, LG Chem BYD Bollore, Toyota 27
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com Appendix 29
, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com ('000) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 HEV EV (BEV, PHEV) %% of of new new PC car sales sales 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E (%) 12% 10% 8% 8 6% 6 4% 4 2% 2 0% 0 30
, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (Unit) 60,000 Others China US Japan Europee 누적 YoY (우) (%) 70 (%) 1.6 US Japan Europe China 50,000 40,000 60 50 1.2 30,000 40 30 0.8 20,000 20 0.4 10,000 10 - - 0 '12.01 '12.05 '12 12.09 '13.01 '13.05 '13.09 '14.01 '14.05 '14.09 '15.01 '15.05 '15.09 '13.10 '13.11 '13.12 '14.01 '14.02 '14.03 '14.04 '14.05 '14.06 '14.07 '14.08 '14.09 '14.10 (%) (Unit 10,000) Norway Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Denmark France UK China Canada Germany Belgium Austria US Portugal Japan Spain Korea Italy China US Norway Netherlands UK Japan France Germany '12.01 '12.05 '12.09 '13.01 '13.05 (%) 50 Japan US Europe 40 30 20 10 - '13 13.09 '14.01 '14.05 '14.11 11 '14.12 '15.01 '15.02 '15.03 '15.04 '15.05 '15.06 Sweden Switzerland Canada Belgium '15.07 Korea '15.08 '14.09 Denmark '15.09 '15.01 Spain '15.10 Italy '15.11 '15.05 Austria '15.12 '15.09 Portugal 18.3 22.53 7.0 10.3 2.2 2.1 1.5 1.3 3.1 2.7 1.0 1.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 0.8 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0..7 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 China 31
, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (Unit) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 HEV 판매량 T12M YoY (우) (%) 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 - '12.01 '12.05 '12.09 '13.01 '13.05 '13.09 '14.01 '14.05 '14.09 '15.01 '15.05 '15.09-15 (%) 4.5 4.0 HEV 판매비중 EV 판매비중 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 - '13.01 '13.07 '14.01 '14.07 '15.01 '15.07 (%) HEV 판매비중 (일본제외) EV 판매비중 (일본제외) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 - '13.01 '13.07 '14.01 '14.07 '15.01 '15.07 32
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (%) (%) (%) 34
, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com 18.4 (Unit 10,000) 4.7 4.4 (Unit 10,000) 3.7 3.2 10.2 9.6 8.2 7.3 2.4 4.3 3.93.43.42.72.72.5 2.32.01.91.71.61.61.61.4 1.9 1.7 1.61.6 1.41.3 1.00.90.90.90.9 0.80.8 0.70.7 LEAF Volt Model S Outlander PHEV Prius Plug-in Qin i3 i-miev ZOE Kandi EV Fusion Energi C-Max Energi QQ3 EV E-Series Kangoo ZE V60 Plug-In Twizy e-golf Zhidou E20 J3 EV LEAF Model S Outlander Qin i3 Kandi EV ZOE E-Series Volt e-golf Golf GTE Zhidou E20 Fusion Energi A3 e-tron Z100 Tang Prius Plug-in C-Max Energi Roewe E50 QQ3 EV 6.3 5.5 (Unit 10,000) 2.6 2.2 (Unit 10,000) 3.4 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Volt Leaf Prius PHEV Model S C-Max Energi Fusion Energi Focus Electric Smart ED RAV4 EV i-miev 500e Spark EV Leaf Volt Prius PHEV Model S Fusion Energi C-Max Energi Smart ED Focus Electric 500e RAV4 EV Spark EV i3 1.5 (Unit 10,000) 0.7 (Unit 10,000) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 QQ3 EV J3 EV Qin e6 F3DM E150 EV Model S Zhidou E20 TD100 EV QQ3 EV Qin e6 Model S J3 EV E150 EV Zhidou E20 F3DM Riich M1 EV 35
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com 7,185 (MWh) 2,846 (MWh) 4,424 1,281 1,677 981 866 864 737 562 542 541 467 435 429 403 323 321 312 285 239 205 473 408 363 316 298 296 247 217 192 191 143 140 89 85 83 81 78 75 Model S LEAF Volt Outlander e6 i3 ZOE Qin i-miev Kandi EV QQ3 EV e-golf Kangoo ZE E-Series Prius Plug-in 500e Zhidou E20 J3 EV Smart Fortwo V60 Plug-In Model S LEAF i3 Outlander e6 ZOE Qin Volt e-golf Zhidou E20 Kandi EV E-Series 500e QQ3 EV Smart Fortwo Kangoo ZE Fusion Energi e-up Soul EV e-nv200 (%) Others SDI LGC LEJ BYD AESC Panasonic (%) Others SDI LGC LEJ BYD AESC Panasonic 100.0 100.0 1.8 6.8 80.0 16.8 80.0 1.7 10.8 7.7 24.2 6.3 5.8 6.0 2.7 23.1 14.8 60.0 6.1 9.7 60.0 7.2 8.7 4.0 28.5 23.4 10.9 6.2 19.5 8.3 11.1 14.1 40.0 40.0 1.2 5.7 9.8 7.6 9.2 32.6 2.1 22.5 19.2 9.0 20.0 37.1 37.0 20.0 9.6 31.9 23.6 17.6 19.6 15.9 10.5 - - 4.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 (USD m) 70,000 60,000 ESS LIB xev LIB Portable LIB 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 38
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com Company Analysis 43
Initiating coverage Korea / Handsets 3 May 2016 HOLD 120,000 114,000 Upside/downside (%) 5.3 KOSPI 1,994.15 시가총액 (십억원) 7,839 52 주 최저/최고 76,800-129,000 일평균거래대금 (십억원) 30.41 외국인 지분율 (%) 32.2 Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E Performance (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSPI (RHS) 133,000 123,000 113,000 103,000 93,000 83,000 73,000 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 (%) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Performance 1M 3M 12M 절대수익률 (%) 16.0 28.5 (7.9) KOSPI 대비 상대수익률 (%) 15.1 23.5 (1.1), Analyst 3774 3831 jinho.cho@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures 44
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (KRW 100m) 200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 23.0x 19.0x 15.0x 11.0x 40,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 47
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com (RMB/ tonne) 200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 2014-01 2014-07 2015-01 2015-07 2016-01 (USD) (Index) 70 WTI price (LHS) USA SMP index (RHS) 2.5 60 2.0 50 1.5 40 30 1.0 20 0.5 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 49
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com Materrial 7.6% Samsung SDI 5.2 Others 12.4 Energy 60.8% LG Chemical 7.7% Panasonic 35.9% Chemical 21.9% AESC 8.4% PEVE 9.5% BYD 11.2% 57
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, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com SEC & affliates, 20.06% NPS, 8.19% Others, 71. 75% 59
, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com Summary financial statements 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 5,474 7,569 5,510 6,048 4,545 6,186 4,896 5,380 929 1,383 614 668 858 1,443 1,419 697 71 (60) (805) (29) 71 (60) (805) (29) (4) 6 (0) 14 190 311 78 78 (57) (217) 1,096 0 199 39 369 63 47 13 314 16 (80) 26 141 47 (84) 54 141 47 (1,488) 783 2,049 687 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 59.7 38.3 (27.2) 9.8 50.7 48.9 (55.6) 8.8 161.7 (66.4) 161.7 (66.4) 17.0 18.3 11.1 11.0 1.3 (0.8) (14.6) (0.5) (1.5) 0.7 2.6 0.8 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 3,536 4,774 3,348 2,925 628 1,288 1,036 548 1,037 544 566 589 893 1,055 873 896 769 750 562 579 210 1,137 311 314 12,433 11,451 11,728 12,306 3,325 3,229 3,401 3,783 7,428 6,373 6,631 6,901 1,681 1,850 1,696 1,623 15,969 16,225 15,076 15,232 2,254 3,201 1,942 2,009 754 1,504 1,038 1,098 975 1,047 247 247 525 650 657 663 1,887 1,771 1,810 1,851 803 702 702 702 1,085 1,068 1,108 1,149 4,142 4,972 3,752 3,860 11,586 11,012 11,083 11,130 240 241 241 241 11,827 11,253 11,324 11,372 164,621 156,459 157,468 158,142 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 311 881 1,856 762 (80) 26 141 47 533 663 737 727 (152) (432) 241 (37) 10 624 737 25 (328) 115 (1,237) (1,250) (434) (705) (1,000) (1,000) 107 821 (237) (250) (84) (355) (870) 0 (83) (72) (70) 0 0 0 0 0 (362) (295) (800) 0 730 628 1,288 1,036 628 1,288 1,036 548 2014 2015 2016E 2017E (0.9) 0.5 1.3 0.4 (0.6) 0.2 0.9 0.3 43.2 36.6 43.5 34.4 51.6 47.0 63.9 53.4 46.8 54.4 84.2 64.5 1.0 (0.7) (5.8) (1.6) 15.7 10.7 (1,704.2) 2.1 60
, Analyst, 3774 3831, jinho.cho@miraeasset.com Recommendations Distribution of Ratings Compliance Notice Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 193,000 173,000 153,000 133,000 113,000 93,000 73,000 May14 Nov14 May15 Nov15 May16 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-05-21 BUY 190,000 2014-10-31 BUY 190,000 2015-01-23 BUY 165,000 (Down) 2015-01-27 BUY 165,000 2015-03-27 BUY 165,000 2015-07-09 BUY 140,000 (Down) 2015-07-31 BUY 130,000 (Down) 2015-11-02 BUY 130,000 2016-01-26 BUY 130,000 2016-04-06 BUY 120,000 (Down) Change in analyst 2016-05-03 HOLD (Initiate) 120,000 61