July 16, Analyst, wcchung@miraeasset.comcom
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Table of contents Executive summary 3 Investment thesis 12 Appendix 37 Company section 44 Global company visits 45 WhiteWave Foods (WWAV US) 46 Mondelez International (MDLZ US) 50 Shake Shack (SHAK US) 54 Flowers Foods (FLO US) 58 Calbee (2229 JP) 61 KT&G (0033780 KS, HOLD, 139,000 원) 65 농심 (004370 KS, HOLD, 400,000 원) 69 오리온 (001800 KS, BUY, 1,050,0000 원) 73 롯데칠성 (0050 KS, BUY, 2,0,000 원) 77 빙그레 (005180 KS, BUY, 80,000 원) 80 Global universe 84 US Food 85 US Beverage 145 US Tobacco 175 US Restaurant 189 China & Japan Food & Beverage, Tobacco 5 2
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Executive summary (x) MSCI World 12M fwd P/E MSCI Global F&B sector 12M fwd P/E 25 15 5 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 3
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, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Performance Risk (STD) 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y Y YTD 52WL 52WH 3Y 5Y Y Universe (0.9) 2.9 0.1 (0.1) 45.4 88.1 269.5 0.5 27.8 (4.0).6.7 12.6 MSCI World (3.9) (1.4) (5.2) (9.8) 19.8 38.4 26.8 (4.8) 8.9 (11.1) 11.9 13.4 16.8 MSCI Consumer Staples (0.6) 0.5 1.9 5.8.2 65.3 8.2 2.0 24.0 (2.1).5.5 12.2 MSCI Food Beverage & Tobacco (0.8) 1.5 2.7 9.4 34.9 71.5 139.9 2.9 31.1 (2.3) 11.0 11.0 12.6 US FOOD Sector 1.0 1.1 6.3 7.2 50.6 6.0 225.6 8.1 31.9 (3.6) 13.8 13.7 14.8 WhiteWave Foods Co WWAV US (0.8) 13.2.6 (11.0) 174.5 - - 13.7 69.2 (15.2) 29.6 - - Mondelez International Inc MDLZ US (4.4) 7.0 (6.8) 2.9 47.7 86.7 9.4 (5.7) 31.7 (9.9) 21.4 19.5 21.3 J M Smucker Co SJM US 12.8 12.9 16.5 31.0 44.0 94.0 221.2 17.8 54.1 0.8 18.0 18.3 21.5 Hain Celestial Group HAIN US (2.1) 18.5 14.9 (28.7) 48.0 197.9 274.7 18.0 42.5 (32.0) 28.7.7 33.5 General Mills GIS US 6.1 7.8 12.6 17.1 36.9 79.5 159.4 14.7 35.4 1.1 15.3 14.7 17.3 Kellogg Company K US 3.3 2.3 5.9 22.8 22.2 41.0 62.8 6.8 29.3 (1.2) 16.0 15.5 17.8 Mead Johnson Nutrition MJN US 5.7 6.8.4 (3.8) 13.3 33.9 -.9 29.4 (16.7) 23.7 24.9 - Hershey Co HSY US 7.2 8.8 8.5 11.5 13.4 75.1 77.4 9.7 17.6 (11.6) 16.9 16.4 21.4 ConAgra Foods CAG US 5.0 6.5 11.4 7.1 41.1 86.3 115.1 11.4 63.4 (0.4).4 19.0.7 Campbell Soup Company CPB US 2.9 (1.2) 17.0.8 42.0 84.1 68.6 18.7 50.0 (6.2) 18.1 17.0 19.0 Hormel Foods Corp HRL US 2.1 (18.3) (11.5) 21.9 85.5 142.6 286.8 (.6) 57.0 (.5) 19.5 19.1.0 Tyson Foods TSN US (1.9) (5.0) 17.9 42.4 153.9 236.3 340.8 19.2 80.9 (8.2) 26.3 26.5 36.2 McCormick & Company MKC US 5.0 5.4 17.2 24.5 42.7 3.1 2.9 18.7 54.8 0.9 16.1 16.5 18.7 Kraft Heinz Foods Co KHC US (0.6) 9.5 13.2 - - - - 15.1 21.0 (3.0) - - - Saputo Inc SAP CN (5.4) (7.1) 11.0.9 57.5 70.1 326.8 14.0 37.2 (.8) 18.9 19.6 24.2 Flower Foods Inc FLO US (2.2) (1.0) (18.5) (17.1) (16.8) 23.9 1.6 (16.6) 14.1 (33.9) 27.0 25.8 27.4 US BEVERAGE Sector (0.1) 9.0 2.6 16.0 145.9 271.4 557.7 2.9 1.9 (3.1) 21.7 24.5 28.8 Constellation Brands, Inc STZ US (2.8) 1.8 6.6 29.6 2.0 632.6 500.3 7.1 95.6 (6.7).8 31.3 32.0 Monster Beverage Corporation MNST US 2.6 16.9 3.1 12.2 168.3 293.2 627.6 3.0 142.5 (2.4) 33.4 37.0 45.8 The Coca-Cola Co KO US (1.0) (3.6) 0.9 9.8.6 35.3 6.7 2.3 15.7 (6.3) 15.0 15.3 18.5 PepsiCo, Inc PEP US 0.9 1.3 1.4 7.5 27.4 49.0 72.5 2.1 25.9 (4.3) 14.1 14.1 17.5 Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc DPS US 0.4 4.5 (1.9) 23.4 4.9 131.1 - (1.1) 80.1 (3.5) 17.1 18.0 - Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc CCE US (31.6) (29.3) (29.9) (21.1) 3.0 23.7 79.1 (28.8) (9.0) (35.2) 25.9 25.3 32.3 Brown-Forman Corporation BF/B US (2.7) (2.7) (7.9) (6.2) 38.7 91.2 148.6 (5.4) 12.3 (15.3) 17.7 19.4 23.1 Molson Coors Brewing Company TAP US (1.4) 2.9 4.4 35.9 3.9 121.4 190.8 4.4 71.8 (5.4) 23.5 22.9 25.7 US TOBACCO Sector 2.1 4.8 11.9 31.4 70.4 123.2 233.3 12.6 67.7 (0.3) 15.3 15.4 18.2 Philip Morris International PM US (1.4) 0.1.0.2 13.0 50.1-11.1 29.7 (4.4) 16.4 17.5 - Altria Group MO US 4.8.1 15.0 36.3 91.9 150.2 299.4 15.1 86.3 1.3 16.1 16.1 19.7 Reynolds America RAI US 1.8 3.2.4 34.4 113.7 176.8 265.0 11.1 93.5 (1.2) 19.3 18.8 21.5 US RESTAURANT Sector (5.4) (5.8) (4.6) (14.9) 27.9 83.3 339.8 (3.4) 7.9 (25.3) 18.7 21.0 26.7 McDonald's MCD US (3.1) (3.1) 0.7 24.7 22.5 45.9 267.4 1.1 35.0 (9.2) 15.3 15.3 19.2 Starbucks SBUX US (0.9) (6.3) (9.4) 1.1 68.9 192.8 6.0 (8.9) 59.1 (13.9).7 24.7 32.9 YUM! Brands YUM US (0.5) 3.5 11.0 (.1).2 52.6 232.9 12.5 25.9 (13.4) 26.1 25.9 28.7 Chipotel CMG US (12.5) (15.0) (19.1) (34.0) 11.6 36.7 548.4 (16.5) (0.9) (47.1) 29.9 32.4 40.8 Darden DRI US 0.9 1.6 3.5 4.8 52.1 53.9 0.7 5.0 70.6 (2.2) 22.1 24.2 34.4 Restaurant Brands Int'l QSR US (1.3).0 11.2 8.7 - - -.8 36.9 (7.3) - - - Domino's DPZ US 3.0 (2.9) 14.1 11.9 117.1 404.1 424.0 12.3 78.1 (.7) 23.7 27.3 43.0 Panera PNRA US (1.6) 3.4 8.6 19.6 17.8 68.4 215.7 8.7 47.6 (4.3) 23.0 26.3 34.0 Dunkin Brands DNKN US (3.9) (6.6) (0.1) (22.5) (0.2) - - (0.6) 12.2 (25.2) 22.9 - - Wendy's WEN US (6.8) (7.3) (11.3) (15.5) 68.9 93.2 (38.1) (.3) 26.9 (16.5) 26.9 27.9 39.5 Shake Shack SHAK US (2.1) 8.1 (12.2) (44.4) - - - (.2) 69.3 (61.7) - - - 8
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Performance Risk (STD) 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y Y YTD 52WL 52WH 3Y 5Y Y Universe (0.9) 2.9 0.1 (0.1) 45.4 88.1 269.5 0.5 27.8 (4.0).6.7 12.6 MSCI World (3.9) (1.4) (5.2) (9.8) 19.8 38.4 26.8 (4.8) 8.9 (11.1) 11.9 13.4 16.8 MSCI Consumer Staples (0.6) 0.5 1.9 5.8.2 65.3 8.2 2.0 24.0 (2.1).5.5 12.2 MSCI Food Beverage & Tobacco (0.8) 1.5 2.7 9.4 34.9 71.5 139.9 2.9 31.1 (2.3) 11.0 11.0 12.6 EUROPE FOOD Sector (0.2) (0.2) 4.0 11.5 60.2 133.7 235.2 3.0 47.5 (4.8) 13.0 12.7 15.1 Unilever UNA NA (1.6) (0.2) (1.4) 1.5 35.8 75.1 133.0 (1.8) 42.7 (7.3).8 19.3 22.7 Nestle S.A. NESN VX (2.6) 1.2 (2.5) 2.5 19.0 38.2 91.8 (4.1) 11.3 (6.8) 16.2 15.5 18.4 Kerry Group KYG ID (1.9) (2.4) 6.6 17.6 96.8 183.8 362.0 4.1 60.2 (5.4) 18.9.4 25.8 Glanbia GLB ID 2.4 (6.0) 0.4 (4.5) 71.9 259.4 637.6 0.1 61.9 (13.2) 22.3 25.2 33.6 Fromageries Bel SA FBEL FP 0.6 9.4 14.4 61.8 83.8 235.6 242.2 14.4 85.7 (13.3) 34.1 33.2 37.9 Orior AG ORON SW (0.8) 5.8 6.5 13.7 25.2.1-5.7 28.8 (2.3) 16.7 18.7 - EUROPE BEVERAGE Sector (0.9) 3.9 4.7 15.4 46.5 2.7 192.9 4.5 48.2 (2.5) 16.1 16.0 18.0 Anheuser-Busch InBev ABI BB (2.9) 2.1 (4.0) (2.2) 65.8 181.9 380.8 (3.5) 52.9 (.5) 22.8 22.6 31.5 SABMiller SAB LN 0.3 0.7 5.0 24.3 38.3 4.2 358.2 5.2 54.0 (0.9) 23.1 22.6 26.6 Heineken International HEIA NA (4.3) 1.1 0.4 13.6 62.1 94.7 145.6 1.2 72.1 (6.5) 21.2 21.2 23.6 Diageo DGE LN 0.8 0.5 1.2 (2.2) 0.5 49.0 7.3 1.2 14.5 (7.1) 18.7 18.4.4 Pernod Ricard RI FP (2.3) (4.8) (9.4) (11.6) 11.1 44.9 63.4 (9.5) 18.4 (18.8) 21.1 21.8 27.1 Danone BN FP (2.4) (1.9) (2.6) 0.4.4 17.1 35.3 (2.3) 23.2 (9.9).1.6 23.7 Emmi AG EMMN SW 3.1 21.7 37.8 0.2 119.3 187.0 1.7 33.5 8.1 (1.1) 25.0 24.5 23.5 EUROPE TOBACCO Sector 1.2 4.0 5.3 17.9 33.6 57.1 181.8 4.5 40.7 (0.5) 16.1 15.9 18.8 British American Tobacco BATS LN 4.9 9.7 16.0 23.3 31.9 65.4 229.2 16.3 37.0 2.4 17.7 17.6 21.9 Imperial Tobacco IMB LN (2.0) (2.0) 4.2 14.9 63.1 80.1 162.0 3.0 54.3 (4.4) 19.6 19.4 23.0 Swedish Match SWMA SS (0.7) 2.0 (5.7) 13.6 18.2 33.9 148.8 (7.2) 38.0 (9.0) 22.1 22.4 24.8 CHINA F&B Sector 1.7 5.2 (3.6) (21.7) (3.4) 1.6 274.0 (2.1) 17.9 (28.0) 21.3.2 24.6 WantWant China 151 HK (3.8) (3.7) (8.5) (38.0) (47.6) (.4) - (8.8) 9.8 (59.7) 28.9 31.4 - Tingyi Holding Corp 322 HK (13.2) (13.0) (38.2) (58.4) (63.8) (71.9) 53.0 (38.8) (0.9) (70.8) 32.2 31.4 35.4 Kweichow Moutai 600519 CH 8.7 12.8 21.8 19.6 74.5 76.5 644.3 25.5 128.5 (3.6) 32.9 31.2 35.2 Wuliangye Yibin 000858 CH 7.9 16.9 12.9 (2.2) 57.6 (12.3) 190.5 14.4 2.0 (5.0) 35.4 32.8 41.8 China Mengniu Dairy 2319 HK 2.2 17.4 0.8 (35.9) (1.0) 2.2 165.7 1.4.9 (43.3) 34.0 35.0 49.7 China Modern Dairy Holdings 1117 HK (23.1) (.8) (43.6) (60.7) (51.1) (54.4) - (45.3) (12.7) (73.7) 45.9 44.2 - Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group ( 600887 CH 4.9 12.0 (8.0) (15.6) 46.9 185.7 371.1 (3.8) 51.4 (28.4) 39.9 37.2 43.8 JAPAN F&B, TOBACCO Sector (5.6) (8.3) (12.0) (13.2) 53.8 149.8 86.1 (13.8) 45.7 (19.5) 23.0.9 21.8 Asahi Group Holdings 2502 JP (14.5) (7.6) (17.5) (22.5) 34.1 95.4 97.8 (16.7) 17.6 (27.8) 27.6 25.6 25.8 Kirin Holdings 2503 JP (13.1) 1.2 (2.0) (8.0) 5.9 47.7 (7.3) (2.4) 23.4 (15.9) 28.1 27.3 28.4 Japan Tobacco 2914 JP (9.4) (14.6) (12.0) (12.8) 16.7 162.2 97.5 (11.9) 31.2 (18.7).0.7 34.0 Sapporo Holdings 2501 JP (6.8) (5.5) 3.4 17.3 62.7 65.2 (5.0) 3.4 50.7 (.6) 31.0.9 37.3 Suntory Beverage & Food 2587 JP (11.2) (7.7) (15.2) (.5) - - - (15.9) 29.7 (22.2) - - - ITO EN 2593 JP 3.2 5.1 24.0 41.6 68.0 163.5 21.2 19.2 81.3 (5.9) 24.7 22.6 25.6 Yakult Honsha 2267 JP (1.4) (1.5) (11.6) (.8) 31.5 1.8 66.4 (14.3).1 (43.1) 35.5 31.9 32.6 Calbee 2229 JP 3.4 (11.5) (18.1) (22.2) 69.5 474.0 - (.4) 79.5 (27.4) 32.5 31.9 - Meiji Holdings 02 JP (16.6) (.1) (.9) (6.8) 64.3 84.6 48.0 (23.0) 55.4 (25.3) 27.3 25.4 27.0 AJINOMOTO 2802 JP (7.5) (16.2) (17.1) (14.1) 66.5 140.2 78.9 (19.7) 63.1 (26.8) 29.0 26.7 28.0 NISSIN Foods Holdings 2897 JP (2.2) (5.2) (15.0) (1.8) 40.2 79.3 33.3 (17.3) 23.9 (19.4) 24.5.9 25.1 Toyo Suisan Kaisha 2875 JP (6.2) (4.9) (5.7) (.7) 24.5 3.4 117.8 (6.9) 31.1 (.2) 26.9 24.9 28.6 NH Foods 2282 JP (8.9) (13.7) (1.6) (.5) 56.8 2.3 71.2 (4.4) 51.2 (28.7).0 29.3 29.9 Kikkoman Corp 2801 JP (7.5) (8.4) (15.6) (8.9) 123.2 3.3 145.4 (17.8) 87.3 (.2) 32.5.0 31.1 KOREA F&B, TOBACCO Sector (6.5) (0.1) (11.8) (13.0).0 60.2 140.9 (11.5) 18.1 (21.0).5 21.5 21.5 KT&G 033780 KS (0.8) 15.3 11.7 33.0 72.9 89.5 139.0 19.1 63.8 (5.7) 26.7 26.6 26.7 Lotte Chilsung Beverage 0050 KS (7.9) (9.4) (19.3) (31.4) 32.1 35.8 67.3 (.2) 25.4 (35.7).9 29.9 33.7 Orion Corp 001800 KS (9.8) (1.4) (23.1) (23.7) (7.0) 90.6 291.7 (23.1) 16.6 (34.7) 34.6 35.1 39.7 CJ CheilJedang 097950 KS (1.5) 6.8 6.1 (12.7) 55.9 41.0-2.0 47.2 (16.0) 29.3 33.2 - Nongshim 004370 KS (8.6) (14.6) (15.3) 29.6 40.1 41.5 47.4 (19.3) 55.1 (33.6).7 34.0 32.9 Binggrae 005180 KS (6.5) (7.9) (6.4) (21.3) (34.3) 7.7 70.6 (4.1) 2.2 (32.8) 29.2 32.8 31.4 9
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Performance Risk (STD) 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y Y YTD 52WL 52WH 3Y 5Y Y Universe (0.8) 3.2 0.3 (1.9) 39.6 76.3 272.2 1.1 21.6 (4.4).9 11.2 13.4 MSCI World (4.2) 0.9 (1.0) 6.3 12.9 28.0 122.2 (0.8) 14.4 (5.9) 17.6 18.3 21.9 MSCI Consumer Staples (0.1) (0.4) 5.1 9.2 38.3 79.6 2.4 5.3 29.8 (6.3) 14.0 14.7 18.1 MSCI Food Beverage & Tobacco 1.8 1.3 3.7 5.0 47.3 96.7 112.0 1.4 45.9 (3.5) 22.0.6 22.5 US FOOD Sector 1.1 1.4 6.9 6.5 46.9 98.2 2.6 8.7 29.3 (3.6) 14.1 15.3 15.5 WhiteWave Foods Co WWAV US (0.8) 13.2.6 (11.0) 174.5 - - 13.7 69.2 (15.2) 29.6 - - Mondelez International Inc MDLZ US (4.4) 7.0 (6.8) 2.9 47.7 86.7 9.4 (5.7) 31.7 (9.9) 21.3 19.5 21.3 J M Smucker Co SJM US 12.8 12.9 16.5 31.0 44.0 94.0 221.2 17.8 54.1 0.8 18.0 18.3 21.5 Hain Celestial Group HAIN US (2.1) 18.5 14.9 (28.7) 48.0 197.9 274.7 18.0 42.5 (32.0) 28.6.7 33.5 General Mills GIS US 6.1 7.8 12.6 17.1 36.9 79.5 159.4 14.7 35.4 1.1 15.3 14.7 17.3 Kellogg Company K US 3.3 2.3 5.9 22.8 22.2 41.0 62.8 6.8 29.3 (1.2) 16.0 15.5 17.8 Mead Johnson Nutrition MJN US 5.7 6.8.4 (3.8) 13.3 33.9 -.9 29.4 (16.7) 23.6 24.9 - Hershey Co HSY US 7.2 8.8 8.5 11.5 13.4 75.1 77.4 9.7 17.6 (11.6) 16.9 16.4 21.4 ConAgra Foods CAG US 5.0 6.5 11.4 7.1 41.1 86.3 115.1 11.4 63.4 (0.4).3 18.9.7 Campbell Soup Company CPB US 2.9 (1.2) 17.0.8 42.0 84.1 68.6 18.7 50.0 (6.2) 18.1 17.0 19.0 Hormel Foods Corp HRL US 2.1 (18.3) (11.5) 21.9 85.5 142.6 286.8 (.6) 57.0 (.5) 19.5 19.1.0 Tyson Foods TSN US (1.9) (5.0) 17.9 42.4 153.9 236.3 340.8 19.2 80.9 (8.2) 26.3 26.5 36.2 McCormick & Company MKC US 5.0 5.4 17.2 24.5 42.7 3.1 2.9 18.7 54.8 0.9 16.1 16.5 18.7 Kraft Heinz Foods Co KHC US (0.6) 9.5 13.2 - - - - 15.1 21.0 (3.0) - - - Saputo Inc SAP CN (5.3) (5.4) 18.0 14.6 27.3 29.3 268.7 21.3 34.9 (11.1) 21.3 22.7 27.2 Flower Foods Inc FLO US (2.2) (1.0) (18.5) (17.1) (16.8) 23.9 1.6 (16.6) 14.1 (33.9) 27.0 25.8 27.4 US BEVERAGE Sector (0.1) 9.0 2.6 16.0 145.9 271.4 557.7 2.9 1.9 (3.1) 21.7 18.8 28.8 Constellation Brands, Inc STZ US (2.8) 1.8 6.6 29.6 2.0 632.6 500.3 7.1 95.6 (6.7).8 31.3 32.0 Monster Beverage Corporation MNST US 2.6 16.9 3.1 12.2 168.3 293.2 627.6 3.0 142.5 (2.4) 33.4 37.0 45.8 The Coca-Cola Co KO US (1.0) (3.6) 0.9 9.8.6 35.3 6.7 2.3 15.7 (6.3) 15.0 15.3 18.5 PepsiCo, Inc PEP US 0.9 1.3 1.4 7.5 27.4 49.0 72.5 2.1 25.9 (4.3) 14.1 14.1 17.5 Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc DPS US 0.4 4.5 (1.9) 23.4 4.9 131.1 - (1.1) 80.1 (3.5) 17.1 18.0 - Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc CCE US (31.6) (29.3) (29.9) (21.1) 3.0 23.7 79.1 (28.8) (9.0) (35.2) 25.9 25.3 32.3 Brown-Forman Corporation BF/B US (2.7) (2.7) (7.9) (6.2) 38.7 91.2 148.6 (5.4) 12.3 (15.3) 17.7 19.4 23.1 Molson Coors Brewing Company TAP US (1.4) 2.9 4.4 35.9 3.9 121.4 190.8 4.4 71.8 (5.4) 23.5 22.9 25.7 US TOBACCO Sector 2.1 4.8 11.9 31.4 70.4 123.2 233.3 12.6 67.7 (0.3) 15.3 18.0 18.2 Philip Morris International PM US (1.4) 0.1.0.2 13.0 50.1-11.1 29.7 (4.4) 16.4 17.5 - Altria Group MO US 4.8.1 15.0 36.3 91.9 150.2 299.4 15.1 86.3 1.3 16.1 16.1 19.7 Reynolds America RAI US 1.8 3.2.4 34.4 113.7 176.8 265.0 11.1 93.5 (1.2) 19.3 18.8 21.5 US RESTAURANT Sector (5.4) (5.8) (4.6) (14.9) 27.9 83.3 339.8 (3.4) 7.9 (25.3) 18.7 0.0 26.7 McDonald's MCD US (3.1) (3.1) 0.7 24.7 22.5 45.9 267.4 1.1 35.0 (9.2) 15.3 15.3 19.2 Starbucks SBUX US (0.9) (6.3) (9.4) 1.1 68.9 192.8 6.0 (8.9) 59.1 (13.9).7 24.7 32.9 YUM! Brands YUM US (0.5) 3.5 11.0 (.1).2 52.6 232.9 12.5 25.9 (13.4) 26.1 25.9 28.7 Chipotel CMG US (12.5) (15.0) (19.1) (34.0) 11.6 36.7 548.4 (16.5) (0.9) (47.1) 29.9 32.4 40.8 Darden DRI US 0.9 1.6 3.5 4.8 52.1 53.9 0.7 5.0 70.6 (2.2) 22.1 24.2 34.4 Restaurant Brands Int'l QSR US (1.3).0 11.2 8.7 - - -.8 36.9 (7.3) - - - Domino's DPZ US 3.0 (2.9) 14.1 11.9 117.1 404.1 424.0 12.3 78.1 (.7) 23.7 27.3 43.0 Panera PNRA US (1.6) 3.4 8.6 19.6 17.8 68.4 215.7 8.7 47.6 (4.3) 23.0 26.3 34.0 Dunkin Brands DNKN US (3.9) (6.6) (0.1) (22.5) (0.2) - - (0.6) 12.2 (25.2) 22.9 - - Wendy's WEN US (6.8) (7.3) (11.3) (15.5) 68.9 93.2 (38.1) (.3) 26.9 (16.5) 26.9 27.9 39.5 Shake Shack SHAK US (2.1) 8.1 (12.2) (44.4) - - - (.2) 69.3 (61.7) - - -
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Performance Risk (STD) 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y Y YTD 52WL 52WH 3Y 5Y Y Universe (0.8) 3.2 0.3 (1.9) 39.6 76.3 272.2 1.1 21.6 (4.4).9 11.2 13.4 MSCI World (4.2) 0.9 (1.0) 6.3 12.9 28.0 122.2 (0.8) 14.4 (5.9) 17.6 18.3 21.9 MSCI Consumer Staples (0.1) (0.4) 5.1 9.2 38.3 79.6 2.4 5.3 29.8 (6.3) 14.0 14.7 18.1 MSCI Food Beverage & Tobacco 1.8 1.3 3.7 5.0 47.3 96.7 112.0 1.4 45.9 (3.5) 22.0.6 22.5 EUROPE FOOD Sector (0.1) (0.4) 5.1 9.2 38.3 79.6 2.4 5.3 29.8 (6.3) 14.0 0.0 18.1 Unilever UNA NA (2.0) (0.8) (0.1) 0.6 15.3 37.0 5.7 0.5 18.1 (7.2) 19.9.2 24.8 Nestle S.A. NESN VX (0.7) 1.6 (1.0) (1.2) 14.8 18.4 145.4 (1.1) 6.7 (11.2) 18.0 18.0 21.1 Kerry Group KYG ID (2.4) (3.0) 8.0 16.5 67.0 122.1 8.0 6.5 38.9 (7.8) 19.9 22.2 27.8 Glanbia GLB ID 2.0 (6.6) 1.7 (5.4) 45.9 181.3 551.3 2.4 37.0 (12.0) 22.9 26.7 35.5 Fromageries Bel SA FBEL FP 0.2 8.7 15.9 60.3 56.0 162.6 2.2 17.0 76.3 (15.3) 35.1 34.4 39.3 Orior AG ORON SW 1.2 6.2 8.2 9.6.8 3.0-9.0 26.4 (3.0).6 22.1 - EUROPE BEVERAGE Sector (2.1) 4.2 5.6 14.0 33.4 70.2 170.2 6.3 26.2 (5.1) 16.4 17.6.6 Anheuser-Busch InBev ABI BB (3.3) 1.4 (2.8) (3.1) 40.7 1.6 324.5 (1.3) 22.3 (6.6) 21.9 23.3 33.1 SABMiller SAB LN (6.7) (2.7) (3.7) 8.0 22.6 74.9 243.9 (2.4).9 (6.7) 24.4 24.3 29.2 Heineken International HEIA NA (4.7) 0.5 1.7 12.6 37.6 52.4 116.9 3.5 38.7 (7.3) 21.3 22.8 26.1 Diageo DGE LN (6.2) (2.9) (7.2) (15.1) (.9) 27.7 55.6 (6.1) 1.8 (21.4) 19.8.0 22.8 Pernod Ricard RI FP (2.7) (5.4) (8.2) (12.3) (5.7) 13.4 44.2 (7.5) 6.4 (17.1) 21.0 23.6 29.6 Danone BN FP (2.8) (2.5) (1.4) (0.5) (6.3) (8.4) 19.5 (0.1) 13.2 (12.2).3 22.6 26.4 Emmi AG EMMN SW 5.1 22.1 39.9 92.9 111.7 146.0 414.0 37.6 2.0 (2.0) 27.3 26.9 25.9 EUROPE TOBACCO Sector (4.2) 0.9 (1.0) 6.3 12.9 28.0 122.2 (0.8) 14.4 (5.9) 17.6 18.3 21.9 British American Tobacco BATS LN (2.5) 6.0 6.3 7.1 16.9 41.7 147.1 7.9 18.5 (3.7) 18.9 19.1 24.0 Imperial Tobacco IMB LN (8.8) (5.4) (4.4) (0.2) 44.6 54.3 96.7 (4.5) 26.7 (9.1) 21.3 21.3 25.2 Swedish Match SWMA SS (2.7) (0.1) (6.5).6 (6.2) 2.7 116.5 (7.4) 18.3 (8.4) 23.6 25.3 29.2 CHINA F&B Sector 1.5 4.6 (4.1) (22.9) (3.0) 5.5 337.3 (2.2) 18.7 (29.3) 22.0.7 25.0 WantWant China 151 HK (3.8) (3.7) (8.6) (38.0) (47.6) (.2) - (9.0).3 (59.8) 28.9 31.5 - Tingyi Holding Corp 322 HK (13.2) (13.0) (38.3) (58.4) (63.8) (71.8) 53.1 (38.9) (0.8) (70.9) 32.2 31.4 35.4 Kweichow Moutai 600519 CH 7.7 11.0 19.1 12.2 61.9 72.6 799.0 23.0 115.2 (4.6) 33.2 31.5 35.3 Wuliangye Yibin 000858 CH 6.9 15.0.4 (8.3) 46.3 (14.3) 250.9 12.2 87.3 (11.0) 35.6 33.0 41.9 China Mengniu Dairy 2319 HK 2.3 17.4 0.7 (36.0) (1.0) 2.5 165.8 1.3 21.5 (43.4) 34.0 35.1 49.7 China Modern Dairy Holdings 1117 HK (23.0) (.8) (43.7) (60.8) (51.1) (54.2) - (45.3) (12.4) (73.7) 45.9 44.3 - Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 CH 3.9.2 (.0) (.9) 36.4 179.4 469.0 (5.6) 43.0 (32.9) 40.2 37.4 43.9 JAPAN F&B, TOBACCO Sector 1.8 1.3 3.7 5.0 47.3 96.7 112.0 1.4 45.9 (3.5) 22.0.6 22.5 Asahi Group Holdings 2502 JP (7.8) 2.1 (2.8) (6.3) 28.3 53.8 125.0 (2.0) 17.6 (11.9) 26.9 25.5 26.6 Kirin Holdings 2503 JP (6.3) 11.8 15.4 11.2 1.4 16.2 5.4 14.8 31.7 (8.7) 26.7 26.8 29.0 Japan Tobacco 2914 JP (2.3) (5.6) 3.7 5.5 11.7 6.3 124.7 3.6 48.0 (12.1) 29.2.3 34.2 Sapporo Holdings 2501 JP 0.5 4.4 21.8 41.8 55.7.0 8.1 21.6 51.0 (4.1).2.4 37.3 Suntory Beverage & Food 2587 JP (4.3) 1.9 (0.1) 8.2 - - - (1.1) 31.5 (11.1) - - - ITO EN 2593 JP 11.2 16.1 46.1 71.3 60.8 7.3 37.8 40.2 1.4 (1.5) 24.8 23.2 26.7 Yakult Honsha 2267 JP 6.3 8.7 4.2 (16.3) 25.9 73.8 89.4 0.8 26.4 (32.9) 34.2 31.4 32.7 Calbee 2229 JP 11.5 (2.2) (3.5) (6.0) 62.2 351.7 - (6.4) 79.8 (14.3) 32.1 32.1 - Meiji Holdings 02 JP (.1) (11.8) (6.8) 12.8 57.2 45.2 68.4 (9.4) 61.9 (13.5) 26.2 24.8 27.5 AJINOMOTO 2802 JP (0.3) (7.5) (2.3) 3.8 59.3 89.0 3.5 (5.5) 63.2 (13.9) 28.2 26.5 28.7 NISSIN Foods Holdings 2897 JP 5.4 4.7 0.1 18.7 34.1 41.1 51.7 (2.7) 23.6 (11.7) 23.9 21.0 25.7 Toyo Suisan Kaisha 2875 JP 1.1 5.0 11.1 8.1 19.1 60.0 147.8 9.5.9 (4.6) 26.5 24.7 29.2 NH Foods 2282 JP (1.8) (4.7) 15.9 (3.8) 50.1 59.2 94.8 12.5 52.6 (13.3) 29.2 28.8.2 Kikkoman Corp 2801 JP (0.2) 1.1 (0.5).2 113.6 222.8 179.2 (3.3) 87.6 (7.0) 31.2 29.1 31.2 KOREA F&B, TOBACCO Sector (6.2) (1.2) (12.6) (18.1) 8.2 46.6 95.8 (11.8) 7.6 (26.6) 23.0 24.3 27.4 KT&G 033780 KS (0.5) 14.0.6 25.2 70.1 73.4 94.3 18.7 52.5 (7.1) 28.2 28.3.3 Lotte Chilsung Beverage 0050 KS (7.6) (.4) (.0) (35.4) 29.9 24.3 36.0 (.5) 14.6 (40.7) 32.6 31.8 37.9 Orion Corp 001800 KS (9.6) (2.5) (23.9) (28.2) (8.5) 74.4 218.5 (23.3) 6.4 (39.3) 36.1 36.9 43.7 CJ CheilJedang 097950 KS (1.2) 5.6 5.0 (17.8) 53.3 29.0-1.6 34.4 (22.1) 31.9 35.7 - Nongshim 004370 KS (8.4) (15.5) (16.1) 22.0 37.8 29.5 19.9 (19.6) 43.6 (31.7) 32.0 35.5 36.0 Binggrae 005180 KS (6.3) (8.9) (7.3) (25.9) (35.4) (1.5) 38.8 (4.4) 2.0 (40.7) 31.1 35.0 35.8 11
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) MSCI USA Food sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI USA 12M fwd P/E 25 15 5 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 (%) (%) 12 35 8 25 6 15 4 2 5 0 0 (2) (5) (4) () (6) (15) 05 07 09 11 13 15 17E 05 07 09 11 13 15 17E 12
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (USD bn) US packaged food market (LHS) Chg(YoY) (RHS) 380 (%) 4.0 360 3.0 340 2.0 3 1.0 0 09 11 12 13 14 0.0 Sweet and Savoury Snacks 5.2% Ready Meals 6.6% Others 24.8% Frozen Processed Food 9.6% Dairy 13.9% Bakery 19.3% Confectionery 7.9% Canned/Prese rved Food 5.4% Chilled Processed Food 7.3% Sweet and Savoury Snacks 5.0% Ready Meals 6.2% Others 25.3% Frozen Processed Food 9.5% Dairy 14.2% Bakery 19.1% Confectionery 8.0% Canned/Prese rved Food 5.0% Chilled Processed Food 7.7% 13
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 14
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) 25 15 5 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 Meat, fish and poultry 2% Bread and grains 11% Beverages 13% Fruit and vegetables 38% (%) 40 Dairy 15% Prepared foods 21% 0 Organic milk Organic Organic produce Organic bread packaged salad and roll 15
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Other outlets % The natural foods channel 41% Mass-market retail outlets 49% 16
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Plant-based beverages 8% 12 (%) 8 6 4 2 Milk 92% 0 (2) Milk Plant-based beverages 17
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Soy milk 11.0% Plant-based milk 8% Processed milk.5% Plain milk 40.8% Yogurt 27.7% Cow-based milk 92% 18
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) MSCI USA Tobacco sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI USA 12M fwd P/E 25 15 5 0 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 (%) 1Q09 4Q09 3Q 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 0 (2) (4) (6) (8) () (12) 19
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 (%) 80 60 40 0 11 12 E 17E ()
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 16 17 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Philip Morris International Altria Group Reynolds America 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 08 12 14 16E 3.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 05 07 09 11 13 15 17E 0.0 05 07 09 11 13 15 17E Others 25.3% KT&G 1.2% Reynold American 1.9% Altria Group 2.3% British American Tobacco.7% Philip Morris International 14.6% China National Tobacco Corporation (CNTC) 44.0% 21
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com PMI BAT Imperial Brands Altria Reynolds American Roche P&G Diageo Unilever Kraft-Heinz Japan Tobacco Coca-Cola Nestle McDonald's Johnson & Johnson AB InBev Kimberly-Clark PepsiCo Colgate-Palmolive Mondelez Int'l Heineken 1.8% 1.7% 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 4.6% (%) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 13 14 15 22
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) MSCI China 12M fwd P/E MSCI China Food 12M fwd P/E 25 15 5 0 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 0.08 0.15 0.07 0. 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 0.00 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 23
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 45 (%) 25 (%) 40 35 25 15 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 5 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd (%) 25 15 09 11 12 13 14 15 24
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) 155 115 75 35 (5) Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul- Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 25
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 26
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 (1) US food US beverage US tobacco US restaurant China F&B Japan F&B, tobacco Korea F&B, tobacco (%) 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 0 US food US beverage US tobacco US restaurant China F&B Japan F&B, tobacco Korea F&B, tobacco 27
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) 60 50 40 0 US food US beverage US tobacco US restaurant China F&B Japan F&B, tobacco Korea F&B, tobacco (%) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 US food US beverage US tobacco US restaurant China F&B Japan F&B, tobacco Korea F&B, tobacco 28
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) (x) 70 60 25 50 40 15 5 0 05 07 09 11 13 15 0 05 07 09 11 13 15 29
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 31
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) 40 3m FY16E EPS % Chg. 3m FY17E EPS % Chg. (%) 3m FY16E EPS % Chg. 3m FY17E EPS % Chg. 0 0 () () () () () Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul- () Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul- (%) 3m FY16E EPS % Chg. 3m FY17E EPS % Chg. (%) 40 3m FY16E EPS % Chg. 3m FY17E EPS % Chg. 0 0 () () () () () () Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul- (40) Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul- (%) 3m FY16E EPS % Chg. 50 40 0 () () () (40) (50) Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul- (%) 25 3m FY16E EPS % Chg. 3m FY17E EPS % Chg. 15 5 (5) (15) (25) (35) Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul- 32
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (USD/bushel) Wheat -year average (USD/bushel) Corn -year average 1,400 900 1,0 1,000 800 700 600 800 500 600 400 400 0 0 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 33
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (USD/bushel) Soybean -year average (USD/pound) Raw sugar -year average 2,000 40 1,800 35 1,600 1,400 1,0 1,000 800 25 15 600 400 5 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 (USD/bushel) Wheat 3-year average (USD/bushel) Corn 3-year average 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 0 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 (USD/bushel) Soybean 3-year average (USD/pound) Raw sugar 3-year average 1,800 22 1,600 1,400 18 16 1,0 14 1,000 12 800 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 34
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (USD/bushel) Wheat (LHS) WTI (RHS) (USD/bbl) 1,400 160 1,0 140 1,000 1 0 800 80 600 60 400 40 0 0 0 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 (USD/bushel) Wheat (LHS) Copper (RHS) (USD/ton) 1,400 11,000 1,0,000 9,000 1,000 8,000 800 7,000 600 6,000 400 5,000 4,000 0 3,000 0 2,000 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 (USD/bushel) Corn (LHS) WTI (RHS) (USD/bbl) 900 160 800 140 700 1 600 0 500 80 400 0 60 0 40 0 0 0 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 (USD/bushel) Corn (LHS) Copper (RHS) (USD/ton) 900 11,000 800,000 700 9,000 600 8,000 500 7,000 400 6,000 0 5,000 0 4,000 0 3,000 0 2,000 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 35
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (USD/bushel) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,0 1,000 800 600 400 0 Soybean (LHS) WTI (RHS) (USD/bbl) 0 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 160 140 1 0 80 60 40 0 (USD/bushel) Soybean (LHS) (USD/ton) Copper (RHS) 2,000 11,000 1,800,000 1,600 9,000 1,400 8,000 1,0 7,000 1,000 6,000 800 600 5,000 400 4,000 0 3,000 0 2,000 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 36
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Appendix
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) MSCI USA Food sector 12M fwd P/E (x) MSCI USA Beverage sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI USA 12M fwd P/E 45 MSCI USA 12M fwd P/E 25 35 25 15 15 5 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 5 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 (x) MSCI USA Tobacco sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI USA 12M fwd P/E (x) MSCI Europe Food sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe 12M fwd P/E 25 25 15 15 5 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 5 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 25 (x) MSCI Europe Beverage sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe 12M fwd P/E 25 (x) MSCI Europe Tobacco sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe 12M fwd P/E 15 15 5 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 5 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 38
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) MSCI China Food sector 12M fwd P/E (x) MSCI China Beverage sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI China 12M fwd P/E 60 MSCI China 12M fwd P/E 25 50 40 15 5 0 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 0 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 60 (x) MSCI Japan Food sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan 12M fwd P/E 60 (x) MSCI Japan Beverage sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan 12M fwd P/E 50 50 40 40 0 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 (x) 60 MSCI Japan Tobacco sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan 12M fwd P/E (x) 35 MSCI Korea Food sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea 12M fwd P/E 50 40 25 15 5 0 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 39
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) 35 MSCI Korea Beverage sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea 12M fwd P/E (x) 25 MSCI Korea Tobacco sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea 12M fwd P/E 25 15 15 5 5 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 (x) MSCI World 12M fwd P/E (x) MSCI World 12M fwd P/E MSCI World Food sector 12M fwd P/E 35 MSCI World Beverage sector 12M fwd P/E 25 25 15 15 5 5 0 Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun- Jun-13 Jun-16 0 Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun- Jun-13 Jun-16 (x) 25 MSCI World 12M fwd P/E MSCI World Tobacco sector 12M fwd P/E (x) 45 40 35 MSCI US Food 12M fwd P/E MSCI US Beverage 12M fwd P/E MSCI US Tobacco 12M fwd P/E 15 25 15 5 5 0 Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun- Jun-13 Jun-16 0 Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun- Jun-13 Jun-16 40
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) 25 MSCI Europe Food 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe Beverage 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe Tobacco 12M fwd P/E (x) 45 40 MSCI China Food 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan Food 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea Food 12M fwd P/E 35 15 25 15 5 5 Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun- Jun-13 Jun-16 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 60 (x) MSCI China Beverage 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan Beverage 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea Beverage 12M fwd P/E 50 40 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 41
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com (x) MSCI US Food 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe Food 12M fwd P/E 45 MSCI China Food 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan Food 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea Food 12M fwd P/E 40 35 25 15 5 0 Jun-96 Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun- Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 (x) MSCI US Beverage 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe Beverage 12M fwd P/E 60 MSCI China Beverage 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan Beverage 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea Beverage 12M fwd P/E 50 40 0 Jun-96 Jun-00 Jun-04 Jun-08 Jun-12 Jun-16 40 35 (x) MSCI US Tobacco 12M fwd P/E MSCI Europe Tobacco 12M fwd P/E MSCI Japan Tobacco sector 12M fwd P/E MSCI Korea Tobacco 12M fwd P/E 25 15 5 0 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 42
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 43
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Company section
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Global company visits 1. WhiteWave Foods (WWAV US) 2. Mondelez International (MDLZ US) 3. Shack Shack (SHAK US) 4. Flower Foods (FLO US) 5. Calbee (2229 JP) 6. KT&G (0033780 KS, HOLD, TP: 139,000 원) 7. 농심 (004370 KS, HOLD, TP: 400,000 원) 8. 오리온 (001800 KS, BUY, TP: 1,050,0000 원) 9. 롯데칠성 (0050 KS, BUY, TP: 2,0,000 원). 빙그레 (005180 KS, BUY, TP: 80,000 원)
Global Research US / Food Beverage & Tobacco 6 July 16 USD 47.29 Bloomberg Rating % Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 3,437 3,866 4,8 4,647 296 368 450 514 224 268 376 441 159 192 251 294 406 488 581 659 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 17.0 19.4 3.04 16.1 39.1 36.4 33.5 28.8.0 19.8 18.0 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 14.7 17.6 17.7 134.06 172.74 - - Bloomberg TP & CP trend 60 50 40 BUY HOLD SELL 83% 17% 0% 0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Sales breakdown (15) Coffee creamers and beverages 28% Fresh foods 14% Avrg. TP Share price Premium dairy % America plant-based F&B 24%, Analyst 3774 6753 wcchung@miraeasset.com Europe plant-based F&B 14% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 46
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com WhiteWave Foods WWAV US US Food WhiteWave Foods (WWAV US, Not rated) - America Food & Beverage: Sales by channel (% of USD sales FY15) - Europe Food & Beverage: Sales by channel (% of USD sales FY15) Other 1% Other 15% Natural/Organic channels 9% Natural/Organ ic channels % Conventional channels 75% Conventional channels 90% - Food category growth rates (% growth of USD sales over prior year) - Company brands and products ( :, ) (%) Non-GMO Organic Natural Total 14 12.0 11.5 11.0 12.0 8 6 4 2 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0 12 13 14 15 - Company brands and products - Company brands and products ( WWAV ) 47
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com WhiteWave Foods WWAV US US Food WhiteWave Foods (WWAV US, Not rated) 60 Absolute price 60 700 Relative price 50 50 40 40 500 0 0 Loccal currency USD 0 0 Company Sector Universe 2.0 EPS change (%) 22 ROE change 1.8 1.6 1.4 18 1.2 16 1.0 0.8 14 0.6 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 12 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd (x) 45 12M Fwd. P/E (x) 12M Fwd. EV/EBITDA 40 35 15 25 15 Comapny Sector Universe 5 Comapny Peers avrg. Universe 48
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com WhiteWave Foods WWAV US US Food WhiteWave Foods (WWAV US, Not rated) Income statements (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Revenue 1,215 1,337 1,535 1,821 2,026 2,289 2,542 3,437 3,866 4,8 4,647 Operating profit 2 98 114 125 176 180 2 296 368 450 514 Pretax profit 7 1 3 115 166 169 143 224 268 376 441 Net Income 69 69 81 90 131 111 133 159 192 251 294 EBITDA N/A N/A 172 191 244 255 292 406 488 581 659 (Growth,% YoY) Revenue.0 14.8 18.7 11.2 13.0 11.0 35.2 12.5 11.4 7.9 Operating profit (4.0) 16.7 9.7 40.0 2.6 16.5 40.8 24.5 22.3 14.3 Net Income 0.2 17.0 11.3 45.3 (15.0) 19.7 19.4.5.9 17.1 EBITDA 11.0 27.4 4.5 14.6 39.2.1 19.0 13.5 Balance sheets (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Current Assets N/A N/A 356 374 383 456 509 607 Cash & Near Cash Items N/A N/A 74 97 69 1 50 39 Non-current Assets N/A N/A 1,711 1,735 1,785 1,827 2,8 3,622 Total Assets N/A N/A 2,067 2,9 2,168 2,283 3,319 4,229 Current Liabilities N/A N/A 221 237 323 386 491 604 Short-term Borrowings N/A N/A 0 0 15 15 21 51 Long-term Liabilities N/A N/A 722 731 1,061 935 1,751 2,414 Long-Term Borrowings N/A N/A 440 456 766 648 1,472 2,079 Total Liabilities N/A N/A 942 968 1,383 1,322 2,243 3,018 Total Equity N/A N/A 1,124 1,141 785 961 1,076 1,211 Cash flow (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E CFO N/A 146 181 241 237 185 285 315 CFI N/A (476) (26) (126) (92) (39) (1,141) (957) CAPEX N/A (34) (51) (127) (3) (132) (292) (258) (314) (3) CFF N/A 353 (8) (91) (172) (114) 805 631 Net Changes in Cash N/A 23 47 23 (28) 32 (51) (12) FCF N/A 111 131 114 134 53 (8) 57 93 166 Per share data/key ratios (USD, USD m, %) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E EPS N/A N/A N/A 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 BPS N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.5 5.5 6.2 6.9 8.3 9.8 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE N/A N/A N/A 9.5 11.8 11.3 13.8 14.7 17.6 17.7 ROA N/A N/A N/A 5.1 5.3 4.5 5.0 4.5 5.7 6.3 Div. yield N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debts N/A N/A 367 359 711 562 1,443 2,092 2,015 1,864 Net debt/equity N/A N/A 32.60 31.49 90.60 58.41 134.06 172.74 - - 49
Global Research US / Food Beverage & Tobacco 6 July 16 USD 45.11 Bloomberg Rating % Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 34,244 29,636 26,563 27,3 4,341 3,788 4,026 4,504 2,554 7,884 3,414 3,862 3,339 2,764 2,889 3,233 5,400 4,682 4,880 5,392 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.1 12.2 (13.6) 7.5 14.2 18.6 26.5 24.6 21.6 17.6 8.6 17.5 15.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 7.3 26.1 9.9 11.7 53.94 48.14 - - Bloomberg TP & CP trend 60 50 40 BUY HOLD SELL 67% 33% 0% 0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Cheese & Grocery 9% Beverages 11% Gum & Candy 14% Avrg. TP Chocolate 27% Share price, Analyst 3774 6753 wcchung@miraeasset.com Biscuits 39% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 50
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Mondelez International MDLZ US US Food Mondelez International (MDLZ US, Not rated) - Net sales breakdown by global markets (15) -Net sales breakdown by region (15) Emerging markets 37% Developed markets 63% Latin America 14% EEMEA % Asia Pacific 16% Europe 34% North America 26% - Adjusted operating profit margin growth - 15 snacks share performance (%) (%) 18 15 13.2 15.2 16.5 58 56 54 57 12 9.7 11.7 52 50 48 48 48 50 6 46 44 3 E 18E 42 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 - Company brands and products - Company brands and products 51
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Mondelez International MDLZ US US Food Mondelez International (MDLZ US, Not rated) 50 Absolute price 50 700 Relative price 45 45 600 40 40 500 35 35 400 25 Loccal currency USD 25 0 0 0 Company Sector Universe 2.5 EPS change 14 (%) ROE change 2.3 2.1 12 1.9 1.7 1.5 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 8 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd (x) 12M Fwd. P/E 28 26 24 22 18 16 14 12 Comapny Sector Universe (x) 12M Fwd. EV/EBITDA 18 16 14 12 8 Comapny Peers avrg. Universe 52
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Mondelez International MDLZ US US Food Mondelez International (MDLZ US, Not rated) Income statements (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Revenue 34,113 34,356 36,134 41,932 38,754 49,7 35,8 35,015 35,299 34,244 29,636 26,563 27,3 Operating profit 5,123 5,255 4,391 4,959 5,606 6,898 4,212 4,792 4,614 4,341 3,788 4,026 4,504 Pretax profit 4,116 4,016 3,362 2,603 3,946 3,642 1,880 1,774 2,392 2,554 7,884 3,414 3,862 Net Income 2,632 3,060 2,590 2,884 3,087 3,408 2,339 2,411 3,123 3,339 2,764 2,889 3,233 EBITDA 6,002 6,146 5,277 5,945 6,537 8,338 5,697 6,137 5,691 5,400 4,682 4,880 5,392 (Growth,% YoY) Revenue 6.0 0.7 5.2 16.0 (7.6) 27.0 (27.2) (2.2) 0.8 (3.0) (13.5) (.4) 2.8 Operating profit (1.8) 2.6 (16.4) 12.9 13.0 23.0 (38.9) 13.8 (3.7) (5.9) (12.7) 6.3 11.9 Net Income (1.2) 16.3 (15.4) 11.4 7.0.4 (31.4) 3.1 29.5 6.9 (17.2) 4.5 11.9 EBITDA (1.6) 2.4 (14.1) 12.7.0 27.6 (31.7) 7.7 (7.3) (5.1) (13.3) 4.2.5 Balance sheets (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Current Assets 8,153 8,254,737 11,461 12,454 16,221 16,2 15,673 13,174 11,750 8,958 Cash & Near Cash Items 316 239 567 1,244 2,1 2,481 1,974 4,475 2,622 1,631 1,870 Non-current Assets 49,475 47,3 57,256 51,712 54,260 79,068 77,635 59,804 59,341 55,021 53,885 Total Assets 57,628 55,574 67,993 63,173 66,714 95,289 93,837 75,477 72,515 66,771 62,843 Current Liabilities 8,724,473 17,086 11,044 11,491 15,660 18,445 14,870 14,354 14,007,922 Short-term Borrowings 2,073 3,133 8,7 1,662 966 1,865 3,836 3,851 2,597 2,835 841 Long-term Liabilities 19,311 16,546 23,612 29,773 29,251 43,687 40,064 28,191 25,629 24,911 23,821 Long-Term Borrowings 8,475 7,081 12,902 18,589 18,024 26,859 23,095 15,574 14,482 13,821 14,557 Total Liabilities 28,035 27,019 40,698 40,817 40,742 59,347 58,509 43,061 39,983 38,918 34,743 Total Equity 29,593 28,555 27,295 22,356 25,972 35,942 35,328 32,416 32,532 27,853 28,0 Cash flow (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E CFO 3,464 3,7 3,571 4,237 5,084 3,748 4,5 3,923 6,4 3,562 3,728 CFI 525 (116) (8,416) (1,3) (1,239) (7,462) (1,728) (1,687) (1,483) (1,642) 2,649 CAPEX (1,171) (1,169) (1,241) (1,367) (1,3) (1,661) (1,771) (1,6) (1,622) (1,642) (1,514) (1,212) (1,163) CFF (3,955) (3,681) 5,173 (2,144) (2,988) 4,094 (3,299) 265 (6,780) (2,911) (6,138) Net Changes in Cash 34 (77) 328 773 857 380 (507) 2,501 (1,853) (991) 239 FCF 2,293 2,551 2,3 2,870 3,754 2,087 2,749 2,313 4,788 1,9 2,214 1,922 2,733 Per share data/key ratios (USD, USD m, %) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E EPS 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.1 BPS 17.7 17.5 17.8 15.2 17.5.5 19.9 18.2 19.0 16.7 17.7 18.9 19.7 DPS 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 ROE 8.8.5 9.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 9.9 9.1 12.1 7.3 26.1 9.9 11.7 ROA 4.5 5.4 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 3.7 3.6 5.3 3.1 11.2 4.8 5.2 Div. yield 3.1 2.7 3.2 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.1 3.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 Net debts,232 9,975,442 19,007 16,889 26,243 24,957 14,950 14,457 15,025 13,528 15,174 15,237 Net debt/equity 34.58 34.93 74.89 85.02 65.03 73.01 70.64 46.12 44.44 53.94 48.14 - - 53
Global Research US / Food Beverage & Tobacco 6 July 16 USD 37.21 Bloomberg Rating % BUY HOLD SELL 27% 55% 18% Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 119 191 251 321 6 21 27 35 3 6 27 35 5 12 16 9 17 40 54 0.13 0.04 0.45 0.56 - (76) 1,326.8 24.7-1,281.2 79.9 64.1-84.5 33.1 24.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 (15.5) 12.9 14.2 235.21 (44.92) - - Bloomberg TP & CP trend Avrg. TP 0 Share price 90 80 70 60 50 40 0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16, Analyst 3774 6753 wcchung@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures 54
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Shake Shack SHAK US US Restaurant Shake Shack (SHAK US, Not rated) - Domestic company-operated Shacks open for 24 months or longer (%) 18 16 17.1 14 12 11.7 12.9 11.0 9.9 8 6 4 2 0 7.2 4.5 3.9 1.2 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 - Shake Shack burgers and ice-cream - Shake Shack in West Hollywood, CA 55
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Shake Shack SHAK US US Restaurant Shake Shack (SHAK US, Not rated) Absolute price 0 80 60 40 Local currency USD 0 80 60 40 Relative price 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,0 1,000 800 600 400 0 Company Sector Universe 0.6 EPS change (%) ROE change 0.5 0.4 15 0.3 0.2 0.1 5 0.0 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 0 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd (x) 12M Fwd. P/E (x) 12M Fwd. EV/EBITDA 85 0 75 65 150 55 45 0 35 50 25 15 Company Sector Universe 0 Copmany Peers avrg. Universe 56
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Shake Shack SHAK US US Restaurant Shake Shack (SHAK US, Not rated) Income statements (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Revenue 57 82 119 191 251 321 Operating profit 5 6 6 21 27 35 Pretax profit 5 6 3 6 27 35 Net Income 4 5 4 0 16 EBITDA 7 9 9 17 40 54 (Growth,% YoY) Revenue 44.6 43.7 60.8 31.9 27.7 Operating profit 27.2 (0.6) 254.4 29.6.1 Net Income 31.6 (27.8) (87.8) 3,216.7 26.8 EBITDA 38.4 (5.5) 89.6 138.5 33.4 Balance sheets (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Current Assets 18 15 8 79 Cash & Near Cash Items 16 13 3 71 Non-current Assets 26 40 75 1 Total Assets 44 55 83 380 Current Liabilities 6 7 48 24 Short-term Borrowings 0 0 32 0 Long-term Liabilities 7 11 22 199 Long-Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 Total Liabilities 12 18 70 223 Total Equity 32 37 13 157 Cash flow (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E CFO 12 13 14 CFI (11) (16) (29) CAPEX (11) (16) (29) (32) (42) (52) CFF (2) 0 5 Net Changes in Cash (2) (3) () FCF 1 (3) (15) 9 3 4 Per share data/key ratios (USD, USD m, %) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E EPS N/A N/A 0.13 0.04 0.45 0.56 BPS N/A N/A 0.3 2.8 4.4 4.9 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A ROE N/A 15.7 8.5 (15.5) 12.9 14.2 ROA N/A.9 3.1 (3.8) 3.7 4.6 Div. yield N/A N/A N/A 0.0 N/A N/A Net debts (16) (13) (71) (76) (74) Net debt/equity (50.31) (34.14) 235.21 (44.92) - - 57
Global Research US / Food Beverage & Tobacco 6 July 16 USD 18.60 Bloomberg Rating % Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 3,749 3,779 3,988 4,078 288 4 336 356 268 293 327 350 183 194 211 226 404 4 482 506 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 (25.2) 6.7.1 8.1 22.4 23.5 17.8 16.5 11.8 12.9.2 9.7 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.6 16.0 16.0 16.8 17.3 66.91 79.98 - - Bloomberg TP & CP trend 25 15 5 BUY HOLD SELL % 70% % 0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Sales breakdown (15) Flowers Specialty 16% Avrg. TP Share price Flowers Bakeries 84%, Analyst 3774 6753 wcchung@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures 58
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Flowers Foods FLO US US Food Flowers Foods (FLO US, Not rated) Absolute price 650 Relative price 550 25 25 450 350 250 15 Local currency USD 15 150 Company Sector Universe 1.5 EPS change 24 (%) ROE change 1.3 22 1.1 0.9 18 0.7 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 16 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd (x) 12M Fwd. P/E 28 26 24 22 18 16 14 12 Company Sector Universe (x) 12M Fwd. EV/EBITDA 22 18 16 14 12 8 Company Peers avrg. Universe 59
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Flowers Foods FLO US US Food Flowers Foods (FLO US, Not rated) Income statements (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Revenue 1,716 1,889 2,037 2,415 2,601 2,574 2,773 3,046 3,733 3,749 3,779 3,988 4,078 Operating profit 99 115 144 183 3 6 0 228 3 288 4 336 356 Pretax profit 6 123 153 190 8 2 192 9 322 268 293 327 350 Net Income 61 81 95 119 128 137 1 142 242 183 194 211 226 EBITDA 159 180 2 256 287 291 284 321 454 404 4 482 506 (Growth,% YoY) Revenue.6.1 7.8 18.6 7.7 (1.0) 7.8 9.8 22.5 0.4 0.8 5.5 2.3 Operating profit.7 16.2 24.6 27.2 11.2 1.3 (3.0) 14.2 32.8 (5.1) 5.9.4 5.9 Net Income.6 32.4 16.7 26.0 7.7 6.7 (4.9) 9.2 70.3 (24.3) 5.8 8.6 7.4 EBITDA 14.1 13.3 16.8 22.1 12.2 1.3 (2.5) 13.2 41.3 (.9) 6.4 12.1 5.0 Balance sheets (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Current Assets 238 242 269 352 339 314 379 464 487 461 538 Cash & Near Cash Items 11 14 19 7 8 13 9 8 14 Non-current Assets 613 664 718 1,001 1,012 1,012 1,175 1,531 2,017 1,948 2,348 Total Assets 851 907 988 1,353 1,351 1,325 1,554 1,996 2,504 2,409 2,885 Current Liabilities 174 185 214 265 222 243 268 355 328 311 404 Short-term Borrowings 5 7 7 23 26 28 43 72 31 75 Long-term Liabilities 160 153 1 444 402 287 527 782 1,0 970 1,238 Long-Term Borrowings 74 79 23 264 226 99 283 535 892 729 934 Total Liabilities 334 338 324 709 623 5 795 1,137 1,428 1,281 1,642 Total Equity 517 569 664 644 728 796 759 859 1,076 1,123 1,243 Cash flow (USD m) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E CFO 114 151 215 95 236 6 134 217 270 314 CFI (70) (72) (3) (259) (90) (4) (238) (385) (503) (33) CAPEX (59) (62) (88) (87) (72) (98) (79) (67) (99) (84) (91) (94) (96) CFF (80) (77) (6) 164 (147) (214) 5 174 228 (282) Net Changes in Cash (36) 3 6 (0) (1) (12) 1 5 (5) (1) FCF 55 89 126 8 164 8 55 150 171 2 233 243 245 Per share data/key ratios (USD, USD m, %) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E EPS 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 BPS 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.7 4.1 5.2 5.4 5.9 5.9 6.2 DPS 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 ROE 11.3 15.1 15.5 18.5 19.3 18.1 15.9 16.8 23.9 16.0 16.0 16.8 17.3 ROA 7.1 9.2.0.2 9.6.2 8.6 7.7.3 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.7 Div. yield 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.6 Net debts 68 73 9 266 233 121 318 594 915 751 994 9 822 Net debt/equity 13.16 12.77 1.42 41.37 31.97 15.15 41.95 69.15 85.04 66.91 79.98 - - 60
Global Research Japan / Food Beverage & Tobacco 6 July 16 JPY 4,345 Bloomberg Rating % Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 E 0 222 246 266 24 28 32 21 24 26 31 12 14 17 19 26 31 36 41 91.5 5.8 125.9 146.1 26.7 15.7 19.0 13.2 26.6 49.3 35.5 27.0.7 21.0 15.3 13.0 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.1 13.1 13.6 14.6 15.5 (46.52) (44.89) (38.97) - Bloomberg TP & CP trend (JPY) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 BUY HOLD SELL 55% 45% 0% 0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Sales breakdown (15) Other Snacks 4% Corn Snacks 8% Wheat Snack % Other 14% Overseas Market % Avrg. TP Share price, Analyst 3774 6753 wcchung@miraeasset.com Potato Snacks 54% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 61
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Calbee 2229 JP China & Japan F&B, Tobacco Calbee (2229 JP, Not rated) Japan - Sales breakdown by region - Operating profit and margin North America 4% China 1% (JPY bn) OP OPM (%) Other Asia 5% 35 14 25 12.2 11.4 12 15 9.9.9 Japan 90% 5 0 8.8 7.5 6.9 6.5 FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E 8 6 - Market share by primary ingredient in FY 15 - ROE trend (%) (%) 90 60 77.3 56.2 16 14 12 11.4 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.5 9.6 21.5 8 6 7.1 6.5 0 Potato-based snacks Flour-based snacks Corn-based snacks 4 FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E - Overseas sales composition breakdown (15) - Company brands and products Taiwan 2.5% Philippines 0.3% China 9.9% Thailand 12.9% N. America 43.1% Hong Kong 13.1% South Korea 18.2% 62
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Calbee 2229 JP China & Japan F&B, Tobacco Japan Calbee (2229 JP, Not rated) (JPY) 6,000 Absolute price 50 Relative price 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Loccal currency USD 40 1,000 700 400 0 Company Sector Universe 0 (JPY) EPS change (%) ROE change 150 16 12 0 8 50 4 0 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd 0 1Y Fwd 2Y Fwd (x) 50 12M Fwd. P/E (x) 25 12M Fwd. EV/EBITDA 40 15 Comapny Sector Universe 5 Comapny Peers avrg. Universe 63
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Calbee 2229 JP China & Japan F&B, Tobacco Japan Calbee (2229 JP, Not rated) Income statements (JPY bn) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Revenue 137 146 156 163 179 0 222 246 266 Operating profit 4 11 12 16 24 28 32 Pretax profit 4 8 8 13 16 21 24 26 31 Net Income 3 4 4 7 9 12 14 17 19 EBITDA 13 18 19 23 26 31 36 41 (Growth,% YoY) Revenue 6.6 6.2 5.0 9.9 11.4 11.1.8 8.2 Operating profit 116.3 12.4 14.3 28.9 24.9 22.7 16.3 15.4 Net Income 59.2 5.9 66.8 33.0 28.0 16.8 19.0 15.9 EBITDA 40.1 3.8 5.3 16.4 15.8 18.0 17.1 13.8 Balance sheets (JPY bn) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E Current Assets 23 24 37 48 63 79 90 Cash & Near Cash Items 3 4 18 19 17 19 19 Non-current Assets 69 69 62 61 62 62 72 Total Assets 92 94 99 8 125 141 162 Current Liabilities 29 24 21 23 26 29 34 Short-term Borrowings 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term Liabilities 9 6 5 5 6 8 9 Long-Term Borrowings 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 Total Liabilities 38 26 28 32 37 43 Total Equity 54 64 73 80 93 4 119 Cash flow (JPY bn) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E CFO 11 19 17 7 17 23 22 CFI (5) (11) (1) (5) (13) (17) (9) CAPEX (4) (3) (4) (5) (7) (6) (14) (19) (14) CFF (6) (7) (2) (0) 2 (0) (2) Net Changes in Cash 0 1 14 1 6 6 11 FCF 7 16 13 2 17 8 3 16 Per share data/key ratios (JPY, JPY bn, %) 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 E 17E EPS 24.6 36.0 36.6 55.1 72.2 91.5 5.8 125.9 146.1 BPS 502.2 5.5 550.9 597.3 664.9 7.2 822.2 905.3 1,013.6 DPS 5.0 6.0 7.0.5 15.5 22.0 28.0 35.0 42.0 ROE N/A 7.1 6.5 9.6 11.4 13.1 13.6 14.6 15.5 ROA N/A 4.3 4.4 6.8 8.1 9.1 9.3.0 12.5 Div. yield N/A N/A 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.1 Net debts 17 3 (18) (19) (31) (49) (53) (51) (57) Net debt/equity 31.24 5.27 (24.06) (23.76) (33.49) (46.52) (44.89) - - 64
Earnings preview / Rating downgraded Korea / Food Beverage & Tobacco 6 July 16 HOLD 139,000 137,000 Upside/downside (%) 1.5 KOSPI 1,987.32 18,809 95,0-137,000 37.64 53.9 Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 4,113 4,170 4,350 4,519 1,171.9 1,365.9 1,412.1 1,479.2 813.8 1,032.2 1,016.6 1,066.9 825.6 1,035.7 1,0.0 1,070.5 6,014 7,544 7,4 7,797 44.7 25.4 (1.5) 4.9 12.7 13.9 18.4 17.6 7.2 8.5.9.1 4.5 3.3 2.6 2.8 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.5 14.9 17.3 15.5 14.9 (14.1) (21.5) (21.2) (25.6) Change to EPS Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 6,014 7,544 7,4 7,797 6,014 7,544 7,4 7,797 - - - - Performance (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSPI (RHS) 140,000 135,000 1,000 125,000 1,000 115,000 1,000 5,000 0,000 95,000 90,000 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Performance 1M 3M 12M 9.2 22.9 43.8 8.9 22.2 49.0, Analyst 3774 6753 wcchung@miraeasset.com (%) 160 150 140 1 1 1 0 See the last page of this report for important disclosures 65
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 당사) 66
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com 67
, Analyst, 3774 6753, wcchung@miraeasset.com Summary financial statements 14 15 16E 17E 4,113 4,170 4,350 4,519 1,841 1,631 1,753 1,821 2,272 2,539 2,596 2,698 1,0 1,173 1,184 1,219 1,172 1,366 1,412 1,479 1,172 1,366 1,412 1,479 44 38 32 37 3 15 1 1 (61) (4) (13) (15) 1,158 1,414 1,432 1,503 344 382 415 436 814 1,032 1,017 1,067 826 1,036 1,0 1,070 EPS (지배주주지분, 원) 6,014 7,544 7,4 7,797 14 15 16E 17E 7.6 1.4 4.3 3.9 6.5 11.8 2.2 3.9 15.6 16.6 3.4 4.8 44.7 25.4 (1.5) 4.9 44.7 25.4 (1.5) 4.9 55.2 60.9 59.7 59.7 28.5 32.8 32.5 32.7.1 24.8 23.5 23.7 14 15 16E 17E 4,409 5,571 5,335 5,937 416 546 570 592 669 1,137 919 1,349 976 1,159 1,076 1,118 1,983 2,119 2,2 2,297 365 6 560 582 3,0 3,2 3,6 3,295 1,753 1,790 1,903 2,002 384 416 417 418 873 897 886 875 7,419 8,673 8,541 9,233 1,125 1,872 1,142 1,182 189 194 0 99 143 234 0 0 792 1,444 1,041 1,082 586 526 536 578 138 2 448 424 505 548 1,711 2,398 1,677 1,759 5,631 6,9 6,791 7,394 77 67 73 79 5,708 6,275 6,864 7,473 41,012 45,224 49,464 53,855 14 15 16E 17E 765 1,259 704 1,165 814 1,032 1,017 1,067 162 162 177 192 5 52 (41) (41) (316) 13 (449) (53) (343) (748) (255) (255) (319) (0) (280) (280) (24) (548) 25 25 (354) (381) (662) (457) (403) (428) (428) (457) 0 0 0 0 51 56 (234) 0 348 416 1,701 1,488 416 546 1,488 1,941 14 15 16E 17E 14.9 17.3 15.5 14.9 11.2 12.8 11.8 12.0 172.0 179.5 181.7 182.0 83.3 93.4 93.8 88.6 18.5 16.8 12.3 8.1 (14.1) (21.5) (21.2) (25.6) (26.5) (36.2) (44.3) (39.5) 68