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1 Analyst 한국희 Monthly Update Catching the Consumer: valuation Global / Consumer May 22, 2008 Vol. 4 필수소비재 강세 지속 Global: tobacco 섹터만 아웃퍼폼 지난 한 달간 세부 섹터 가운데 tobacco 섹터가 유일하게 아웃퍼폼, 나머지 섹 터들은 대부분 마이너스 수익률 기록. 시총 상위 종목들 가운데 이익 추정치 대 폭 하향된 Cadbury의 주가 수익률 최저 기록한 데 반해, tobacco 섹터 중 08 년 이익 성장 모멘텀 가장 강한 주가 수익률 최고. HPC 섹터도 견조한 어닝스 트랜드 유지되는 가운데 주가 견조하여 밸류에이션 프리미엄도 유지. Asia Pacific: retail sector의 상대적 약세 AP 지역에서는 어닝스 큰 폭 하향 조정된 일본 리테일러들의 주가 하락 두드러 짐(Yamada Denki, Marui Group 등) 이에 반해 Unicharm,, CJ제일제 당, Tingyi, China Mengui 등 각 지역별 지배적 필수소비재 사업자들의 주가 견조한 추세 지속. 이는 최근 3개월간 유효했던 트랜드. 그 동안 종목별 밸류에 이션 차별화 심화: HPC 및 tobacco 섹터가 beverage나 retail 섹터 대비 프리 미엄에 거래. Consumer Sector Performance <World> (%) 1M 3M 6M MSCI AC world (2.7) Consumer Staple (3.7) Consumer Discretionary (7.8) Retailing () 0.6 (8.7) Beverage (2.6) (1.2) (6.5) Food (0.2) 5.2 (3.3) Tobacco (0.0) HPC (0.1) 0.1 (8.6) <AP ex. Japan> (%) 1M 3M 6M MSCI AP ex. Japan (6.5) Consumer Staple (3.0) Consumer Discretionary 2.4 (7.0) Retailing 0.3 (4.3) (14.1) Beverage 3.2 (6.1) (13.5) Food 4.1 (1.9) 2.1 Tobacco HPC Korea: 경기관련보다는 필수소비재 한국 소비재 섹터 중에는 food, tobacco, HPC 등 필수소비재 모두 벤치마크를 아웃퍼폼. 이에 비해 retail sector의 부진 두드러짐. 삼성테스코의 홈에버 인수 발표 이후 할인점 산업 경쟁 심화 가능성 제기된 것도 한 몫. 그러나 근본적으 로는 retail sector 약세는 글로벌한 현상. 필수소비재 중 수요 견고하고 밸류에 이션이 합리적인 및 아모레퍼시픽 등에 대한 선호 관점 유지. <Korea> (%) 1M 3M 6M MSCI Korea Consumer Staple (3.8) Consumer Discretionary Retailing (3.7) 3.6 (13.8) Beverage 7.1 (7.3) Food 10.4 (5.9) (3.8) Tobacco HPC (2.8) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH

2 Contents I. Global Consumer Sector Overview 4 II. Asia Pacific Consumer Sector Overview 16 III. Domestic Consumer Sector Overview 28 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 2

3 Contents 그림목차 <Graph 1> World Consumer Sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 5 <Graph 2> Consumer Sector s Last Month Performance by industry 5 <Graph 3> Winners and Losers of Last Month 8 <Graph 4> PER - EPS Growth Map 9 <Graph 5> PBR - ROE Map 9 <Graph 6> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month PER 10 <Graph 7> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month PBR 11 <Graph 8> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 12 <Graph 9> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 13 <Graph 10> Leading Global Consumer : PEG 14 <Graph 11> Leading Global Consumer: Forward 12 month PSR 15 <Graph 12> AP ex. Japan Consumer Sector Relative to MSCI AP ex.japan by industry 17 <Graph 13> Consumer Sector s Last Month Performance by industry 17 <Graph 14> Winners and Losers of Last Month 20 <Graph 15> PER-EPS Growth Map 21 <Graph 16> PBR-ROE Map 21 <Graph 17> Leading AP Consumer: Forward 12 month PER 22 <Graph 18> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month PBR 23 <Graph 19> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 24 <Graph 20> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 25 <Graph 21> Leading AP Consumer : PEG 26 <Graph 22> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month PSR 27 <Graph 23> Korea Consumer Sector Relative to MSCI Korea by industry 29 <Graph 24> Consumer Industry s Last Month Performance by industry 29 <Graph 25> Winners and Losers of Last Month 32 <Graph 26> PER - EPS Growth 33 <Graph 27> Tr.PBR - ROE Map 33 <Graph 28> Leading Korea Consumer: Forward 12 month PER 34 <Graph 29> Leading Korea Consumer : Tr. PBR 34 <Graph 30> Leading Korea Consumer : Tr. EV/EBITDA 35 <Graph 33> Leading Korea Consumer : Forward 12 month PSR 35 표목차 <Table 1> Global Consumer Comparative Valuation 6 <Table 2> Global Consumer Comparative Performance 7 <Table 3> Asia Pacific Consumer Comparative Valuation 18 <Table 4> Asia Pacific Consumer Comparative Performance 19 <Table 5> Korea Consumer Comparative Valuation 30 <Table 6> Korea Consumer Comparative Performance 31 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 3

4 Global May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 4

5 I. Global Consumer Sector Overview <Graph 1> World Consumer Sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry (%) Tobacco Food Beverage HPC Retail /01 06/04 06/07 06/10 07/01 07/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 (2006/01/01=100) <Graph 2> Consumer Sector s Last Month Performance by industry (%) () () (0.2) (0.1) (2.6) (4.0) World Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Retailing Beverage Food Tobacco Household & Personal Products 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 5

6 <Table 1> Global Consumer Comparative Valuation Company Name Ticker Ctry Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) EPS (MoM) OP Margin EBITDA Margin ROE 08E 08E 09E 08E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 09E (%) (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) (%) (USD bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary Retail Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT-US US Tesco PLC TSCO-GB UK (0.8) CVS Caremark Corp. CVS-US US Carrefour S.A. CA-FR FR (1.2) Home Depot Inc. HD-US US (5.9) (21.6) (1.3) Target Corp. TGT-US US (0.9) (0.5) Walgreen Co. WAG-US US (0.2) Woolworths Ltd. WOW-AU AU Lowe's Cos. LOW-US US (17.2) 10.4 (0.6) (1.7) Costco Wholesale Corp. COST-US US () Hennes & Mauritz AB HM.B-SE SE (1.7) () Seven & I Holdings Co. Ltd JP JP (4.7) (1.6) Best Buy Co. Inc. BBY-US US (0.3) (0.6) Sysco Corp. SYY-US US Marks & Spencer Group PLC MKS-GB UK (2.8) 3.0 (0.3) (0.9) Staples Inc. SPLS-US US Esprit Holdings Ltd. 330-HK HK Kohl's Corp. KSS-US US (9.7) 12.7 (1.6) (1.7) PPR S.A. PP-FR FR (8.2) 16.4 (2.1) (2.4) Macy's Inc. M-US US (1.9) 0.8 (12.6) 14.4 (4.1) (5.7) Beverage Coca-Cola Co. KO-US US PepsiCo Inc. PEP-US US (0.1) (0.5) Diageo PLC DGE-GB UK (0.1) Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. BUD-US US (0.3) (0.9) SABMiller PLC SAB-GB UK (4.9) Pernod Ricard S.A. RI-FR FR () (1.2) Heineken N.V. HEIA-NL NL (0.3) InBev INB-BE BE (3.5) (4.8) Food Nestle S.A. NESN-CH SW (1.7) () Unilever N.V. UNA-NL NL Kraft Foods Inc. KFT-US US (0.5) () Unilever PLC ULVR-GB UK (0.2) Groupe Danone S.A. BN-FR FR (0.4) (0.3) Cadbury PLC CBRY-GB UK (29.4) (38.9) 22.6 (44.6) (39.9) Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM-US US General Mills Inc. GIS-US US H.J. Heinz Co. HNZ-US US Kellogg Co. K-US US Tobacco Altria Group Inc. MO-US US (59.1) (6) 10.5 (0.3) British American Tobacco PLC BATS-GB UK Imperial Tobacco Group PLC IMT-GB UK Japan Tobacco Inc JP JP (19.2) 19.2 (16.3) (14.7) Corp KR KR HPC Procter & Gamble Co. PG-US US (0.6) L'Oreal S.A. OR-FR FR (0.3) (0.2) Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC RB-GB UK Kimberly-Clark Corp. KMB-US US (0.4) (0.6) Colgate-Palmolive Co. CL-US US Avon Products Inc. AVP-US US Kao Corp JP JP (1.5) (6.7) Shiseido Co. Ltd JP JP Beiersdorf AG BEI-DE DE (0.4) Estee Lauder Cos. (Cl A) EL-US US 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스임. May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 6

7 <Table 2> Global Consumer Comparative Performance Company Name Price Consensus Upside 12-month Forward Valuation Performance TP Potential PER PBREV/EBITDA DY PCR PSR PEG 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 3Y (Local) (Local) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Valuation Summary Retail Wal-Mart Stores Inc (1.2) (0.6) Tesco PLC (3.2) (11.6) (9.6) (1) 35.7 CVS Caremark Corp Carrefour S.A () 0.2 (0.8) (1) (15.6) (13.8) 12.8 Home Depot Inc (2.2) (4.8) (4.6) (1.3) (4.0) (29.6) 1.6 (30.9) Target Corp (0.6) (6.6) Walgreen Co (9.3) (2) (5.3) (21.5) Woolworths Ltd (8.1) 4.5 (13.2) 92.6 Lowe's Cos (3.4) (2.6) (4.4) (27.3) 5.0 (17.3) Costco Wholesale Corp (2.6) (3.5) Hennes & Mauritz AB (3.3) (7.1) (0.9) (16.2) (23.6) (15.0) 29.9 Seven & I Holdings Co. Ltd. 3,120 3, (5.2) (10.9) (4.3) Best Buy Co. Inc () () (2.7) (8.5) (9.5) (17.7) 19.6 Sysco Corp (5.8) (7.8) (0.9) (16.8) Marks & Spencer Group PLC (0.6) 6.4 (4.3) (34.9) (46.7) (29.3) 17.5 Staples Inc (7.6) Esprit Holdings Ltd (2.1) (1.6) (7.5) (20.2) (4.2) (20.9) 63.9 Kohl's Corp NA (2.2) (2.6) (36.7) 3.7 (3.4) PPR S.A (0.3) (5.4) (25.6) (33.6) (21.2) 8.2 Macy's Inc NA 0.4 NA (1.5) (13.7) (38.1) (5.1) (28.7) Beverage Coca-Cola Co (5.0) () (9.1) 8.5 (7.0) 26.7 PepsiCo Inc (4.4) (5.1) (9.9) (2.9) (1) 18.1 Diageo PLC (2.3) (3.0) (3.0) (7.0) (6.3) (6.8) 24.6 Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc (2.7) (3.2) 7.3 SABMiller PLC (4.2) 7.1 (10.0) 50.9 Pernod Ricard S.A (2.6) 5.2 (2.4) (7.7) (7.3) 42.6 Heineken N.V (14.7) (5.5) (14.1) 49.0 InBev (14.4) (6.5) (14.0) (15.0) (10.8) Food Nestle S.A (0.5) () 9.4 (6.5) 8.9 (1.9) 56.9 Unilever N.V (4.2) (4.3) (0.4) (14.8) (6.7) (17.8) 15.3 Kraft Foods Inc (1.5) (1.7) (0.2) (0.4) Unilever PLC (2.8) () 5.8 (5.7) 5.8 (1) 39.2 Groupe Danone S.A (4.8) 7.1 (8.9) (6.1) (9.8) 47.9 Cadbury PLC (1.6) 4.2 (24.3) (25.1) (29.2) (36.7) (30.1) (19.7) Archer Daniels Midland Co (5.4) (3.0) (5.3) General Mills Inc () H.J. Heinz Co Kellogg Co (0.6) (2.8) (0.3) (3.8) (4.6) (2.4) 13.2 Tobacco Altria Group Inc (0.4) (69.2) (69.6) (67.9) (70.3) (66.9) British American Tobacco PLC (4.2) (4.1) () 82.1 Imperial Tobacco Group PLC (3.3) (2.9) 2.1 () 11.7 (9.5) 65.4 Japan Tobacco Inc. 522, , (13.7) () 6.7 (7.3) (20.3) (10.2) (21.9) 91.9 Corp. 89,100 96, HPC Procter & Gamble Co () (0.5) (10.0) 3.7 (10.3) 16.6 L'Oreal S.A (0.3) 4.4 (3.2) (17.1) (11.2) (21.2) 33.3 Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (1.7) Kimberly-Clark Corp (0.8) (7.5) (1) (8.1) (2.3) Colgate-Palmolive Co (7.3) (5.6) (9.0) 6.7 (7.9) 40.4 Avon Products Inc (1.8) (4.5) () (6.6) (2.9) (6.5) Kao Corp. 2,825 3, (1.6) (6.1) (10.3) (14.7) (16.4) (15.9) 13.9 Shiseido Co. Ltd. 2,585 3, (0.4) (5.0) (3.2) (2.3) Beiersdorf AG (2.4) (0.2) () (3.7) (4.3) (3.7) 77.2 Estee Lauder Cos. (Cl A) (2.9) 주1: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스임 주2: : 기간별 Best : 기간별 Worst May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 7

8 <Graph 3> Winners and Losers of Last Month Sysco Shiseido JT SABMiller Estee Lauder Marks&Spencer Reckitt Benckiser Anheuser-Busch Woolworths CVS Caremark Staples L'Oreal Kohl's Macy's Kraft Tesco Costco Altria Heinz Seven&I Heineken Kimberly Walgreen Carrefour Beiersdorf PPR Target Wal-Mart Nestle General Mills Unilever PLC BestBuy Esprit P&G Pernod Ricard Kellogg Imperial Tobacco Diageo BAT Unilever N.V (0.2) (0.3) (0.6) (0.6) () () () () (1.6) () (2.6) (2.8) (2.9) (3.0) (4.1) (4.3) 0.2 Lowe's PepsiCo (4.4) (4.4) Avon Home Depot (4.5) (4.6) Danone Coca-Cola (4.8) (5.0) Archer Daniels Kao (5.4) (6.1) H&M Colgate-Palmolive InBev (14.4) (7.1) (7.3) (%) 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대 수익률 기준 (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 8

9 <Graph 4> PER - EPS Growth Map Kohl's (Fw 12 PER, X) Danone Nestle Kraft Pernod Ricard Target Diageo L'Oreal Estee Lauder Heinz PepsiCo Wal-Mart Carrefour Reckitt Benckiser Colgate-Palmolive Coca-Cola P&G H&M Sysco Unilever PLC Woolworths CVS Caremark Tesco Walgreen BAT Staples Esprit InBev Imperial Tobacco Unilever N.V Kimberly Heineken Archer Daniels BestBuy (07~09E EPS CAGR, %) (10.0) (5.0) 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 Mpustat 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목 은 당사 추정치 기준임 <Graph 5> PBR - ROE Map 6.0(Fw 12 PBR, X) Woolworths Estee Lauder Coca-Cola L'Oreal Beiersdorf Unilever PLC Target Cadbury Schweppes Costco P&G General Mills Unilever N.V BestBuy 3.0 Shiseido Nestle Wal-Mart Danone Carrefour Kao Tesco JT Kraft Walgreen Seven&I Lowe's Home Depot Macy's PPR SABMiller Archer Daniels CVS Caremark Kohl's 0.0 BAT Kimberly Sysco (08E ROE, %) 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 Mpustat 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목 은 당사 추정치 기준임 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 9

10 <Graph 6> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month PER SABMiller Marks&Spencer PPR Macy's Altria BestBuy Kimberly Archer Daniels Heineken Esprit Unilever N.V Imperial Tobacco Tesco Walgreen Home Depot Unilever PLC Staples Target Kohl's InBev Lowe's BAT Diageo Carrefour Sysco Wal-Mart Pernod Ricard CVS Caremark Anheuser-Busch General Mills Kellogg H&M Nestle Kraft Heinz Avon P&G PepsiCo Colgate-Palmolive Coca-Cola Estee Lauder Danone Reckitt Benckiser Woolworths L'Oreal Seven&I Beiersdorf Kao Cadbury Schweppes Costco JT Shiseido (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 10

11 <Graph 7> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month PBR Macy's SABMiller PPR Seven&I CVS Caremark Kraft Lowe's Archer Daniels JT Kohl's Pernod Ricard InBev Home Depot Walgreen Kao Tesco Shiseido Carrefour Staples Altria Danone Target Heineken Cadbury Schweppes Costco Wal-Mart P&G Nestle L'Oreal Marks&Spencer BestBuy General Mills Unilever N.V Beiersdorf Unilever PLC Sysco BAT Kimberly Coca-Cola Estee Lauder Woolworths PepsiCo Heinz Esprit Diageo Imperial Tobacco Kellogg H&M Reckitt Benckiser (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 11

12 <Graph 8> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield CVS Caremark 0.6 Costco 0.9 JT Archer Daniels Target Walgreen 1.2 BestBuy Estee Lauder Lowe's Staples Beiersdorf Seven&I Wal-Mart Shiseido Kao Pernod Ricard L'Oreal Avon Heineken 2.2 Reckitt Benckiser Macy's Colgate-Palmolive Danone 2.3 Cadbury Schweppes P&G PepsiCo Kellogg 2.6 Carrefour General Mills Coca-Cola Nestle Anheuser-Busch Tesco Sysco Home Depot Heinz 3.4 Imperial Tobacco Woolworths Kraft Diageo 3.6 Unilever PLC Kimberly Unilever N.V 3.9 BAT PPR SABMiller InBev H&M Esprit Altria (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 12

13 <Graph 9> Leading Global Consumer: Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA SABMiller Macy's BestBuy PPR InBev Marks&Spencer Carrefour Seven&I Kohl's Lowe's Staples Walgreen Archer Daniels Home Depot Kao Heineken Imperial Tobacco Sysco Target Kimberly Wal-Mart CVS Caremark JT Estee Lauder Tesco General Mills Kellogg Heinz Altria Unilever N.V Avon Esprit Shiseido H&M Unilever PLC Beiersdorf Nestle Kraft Colgate-Palmolive Costco P&G Woolworths Anheuser-Busch BAT PepsiCo Diageo Danone Pernod Ricard L'Oreal Coca-Cola Reckitt Benckiser (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 13

14 <Graph 10> Leading Global Consumer : PEG Avon SABMiller Esprit CVS Caremark Archer Daniels Imperial Tobacco Woolworths H&M Heineken Beiersdorf BAT Sysco P&G Walgreen Diageo Reckitt Benckiser Colgate-Palmolive Staples Pernod Ricard Unilever PLC Wal-Mart Target Coca-Cola Carrefour Costco Estee Lauder InBev PepsiCo General Mills BestBuy Tesco Kimberly Heinz Kellogg Anheuser-Busch Seven&I Nestle L'Oreal Danone Unilever N.V Kraft Shiseido PPR Kao (X) 주: EPS GROWTH = 07~09E EPS CAGR May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 14

15 <Graph 11> Leading Global Consumer : Forward 12 month PSR Carrefour Macy's Costco BestBuy Archer Daniels Sysco Seven&I PPR Wal-Mart Walgreen Tesco Home Depot Target Marks&Spencer CVS Caremark Lowe's Woolworths JT Staples Kohl's SABMiller Estee Lauder Kraft Kao Heineken Kimberly Unilever N.V Heinz Shiseido Avon General Mills Kellogg Unilever PLC Nestle Danone Beiersdorf InBev Anheuser-Busch Pernod Ricard P&G Colgate-Palmolive PepsiCo Cadbury Schweppes Imperial Tobacco L'Oreal Esprit Diageo H&M Altria BAT Reckitt Benckiser Coca-Cola (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 15

16 Asia Pacific May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 16

17 II. Asia Pacific Consumer Sector Overview <Graph 12> AP ex. Japan Consumer Sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry (%) Tobacco Food Beverage Retailing HPC /01 06/04 06/07 06/10 07/01 07/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 <Graph 13> Consumer Sector s Last Month Performance by industry (%) AP ex.japan Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Retailing Beverage Food Tobacco Household & Personal Products 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준임 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 17

18 <Table 3> Asia Pacific Consumer Comparative Valuation Company Name Ticker Ctry Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) EPS (MoM) OP Margin EBITDA Margin ROE 08E 08E 09E 08E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 09E (%) (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) (%) (USD bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary Retail Li & Fung Ltd. 494-HK HK China Resources Enterprise Ltd 291-HK CH (52.6) Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd. C07-SG SG (1.3) Esprit Holdings Ltd. 330-HK HK Yamada Denki Co. Ltd JP JP (6.7) (6.5) Fast Retailing Co. Ltd JP JP (0.6) GOME Electrical Appliances Ho 493-HK CH Belle International Holdings Ltd1880-HK HK (1.3) () Shimamura Co. Ltd JP JP J. Front Retailing Co. Ltd JP JP 0.1 N.A (2.9) 10.8 () Takashimaya Co. Ltd JP JP (1.6) (1.9) Lotte Shopping Co. Ltd KR KR Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd. HVN-AU AU (33.3) (0.3) Marui Group Co. Ltd JP JP (4.8) (38.2) 66.2 (56.5) (45.5) Lifestyle International Holdings 1212-HK HK Hyundai Department Store Co KR KR Parkson Retail Group Ltd HK HK (0.0) Far Eastern Department Stores 2903-TW TW (4.8) Woolworths Ltd. WOW-AU AU Seven & I Holdings Co. Ltd JP JP (4.7) (1.6) Wesfarmers Ltd. WES-AU AU (5.8) Shinsegae Co. Ltd KR KR (0.9) (1.9) Beverage Aeon Co. Ltd JP JP (67.3) (2.4) (9.2) Kirin Holdings Co. Ltd JP JP (49.3) (0.4) (4.1) Foster's Group Ltd. FGL-AU AU (4.3) (0.3) (1.5) Asahi Breweries Ltd JP JP (0.5) Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd. CCL-AU AU () (3.7) Lion Nathan Ltd. LNN-AU AU (0.2) Sapporo Holdings Ltd JP JP (1.9) (0.2) (56.0) Hite Brewery Co. Ltd KR KR (10.2) (14.6) Food Ajinomoto Co. Inc JP JP (10.2) (14.6) IOI Corp. Bhd 1961-MY MY China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd HK CH Nissin Food Products Co. Ltd JP JP Uni-President Enterprises Corp TW TW NA NA NAA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Yakult Honsha Co. Ltd JP JP (2.3) (4.4) 9.5 () Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding322-HK HK CJ CheilJedang Corp KR KR Tobacco Japan Tobacco Inc JP JP (19.2) 19.2 (16.3) (14.7) Corp KR KR (2.2) ITC Ltd IN IN (0.8) (2.3) British American Tobacco (Mala4162-MY MY Gudang Garam GGRM-ID ID (2.2) HPC Kao Corp JP JP (1.5) (6.7) Uni-Charm Corp JP JP LG Household & Health Care Lt KR KR Shiseido Co. Ltd JP JP Amorepacific Corp. (New) KR KR KOSE Corp JP JP (5.1) (2.8) 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 Mpustat 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 18

19 <Table 4> Asia Pacific Consumer Comparative Performance Company Name Price Consensus Upside 12-month Forward Valuation Performance TP Potential PER PBR EV/EBITDA DY PCR PSR PEG 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 3Y (Local) (Local) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Valuation Summary Retail Li & Fung Ltd (3.0) (4.3) 13.9 (7.6) China Resources Enterprise Ltd (3.7) 5.9 (3.1) (9.7) (3.9) (19.6) 15 Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (18.0) (9.5) 24.7 (19.9) 34.3 Esprit Holdings Ltd (2.1) (1.6) (7.5) (20.2) (4.2) (20.9) 63.9 Yamada Denki Co. Ltd. 7,830 10, (15.4) (9.9) (4.2) (36.5) (31.5) (38.7) 37.1 Fast Retailing Co. Ltd. 9,150 9,000 (1.6) (5.9) (8.3) GOME Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd (2.1) (0.6) (9.6) Belle International Holdings Ltd (2.4) 6.9 (8.3) (17.5) NA (27.4) NA Shimamura Co. Ltd. 8,960 10, (1.3) (5.8) 10.2 (20.1) (28.3) (6.0) 5.7 J. Front Retailing Co. Ltd (1.6) (3.1) 12.5 (29.8) (29.6) (30.8) 2.5 Takashimaya Co. Ltd. 1,054 1, (5.7) (10.1) (10.2) (17.9) (25.2) (21.9) 15.8 Lotte Shopping Co. Ltd. 331, , (0.9) (3.4) (1.2) (13.5) (10.3) (19.9) NA Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (1) (42.3) (24.9) (41.9) 60.6 Marui Group Co. Ltd , (3.8) (18.2) (7.1) (18.7) (39.9) (19.9) (37.3) Lifestyle International Holdings Ltd (4.4) (6.1) (22.8) (16.2) NA (24.3) NA Hyundai Department Store Co. Ltd. 99, , (4.5) 14.4 (14.3) 1.9 (16.1) Parkson Retail Group Ltd (2.7) 5.4 (9.6) (10.9) NA (25.8) NA Far Eastern Department Stores Ltd (10.3) (2.6) Woolworths Ltd (8.1) 4.5 (13.2) 92.6 Seven & I Holdings Co. Ltd. 3,120 3, (5.2) (10.9) (4.3) Wesfarmers Ltd (1.7) Shinsegae Co. Ltd. 593, , (2.8) (6.8) 1.2 (15.6) (5.4) (18.3) 84.2 Beverage Aeon Co. Ltd. 1,457 1, (6.2) (33.2) (1) (8.8) Kirin Holdings Co. Ltd. 1,723 2, (8.3) (6.6) Foster's Group Ltd (3.7) (14.5) (14.2) (16.9) 2.4 Asahi Breweries Ltd. 1,850 2, (4.3) (9.3) () (1.8) (3.6) (2.2) 45.6 Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (4.4) (17.1) (21.8) (17.6) (15.4) 7.7 Lion Nathan Ltd () (6.3) (2.9) (3.4) (10.0) 21.3 Sapporo Holdings Ltd (6.3) 0.8 (10.1) (9.6) (16.3) 47.6 Hite Brewery Co. Ltd. 121, , (0.8) (3.6) (4.0) (15.1) 27.4 Food Ajinomoto Co. Inc. 1,015 1, (0.8) (2.5) (14.1) (17.5) (3) (20.1) (14.5) IOI Corp. Bhd (8.5) (3.2) China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd (6.4) (3.7) (13.1) Nissin Food Products Co. Ltd. 3,720 3,700 (0.5) (3.1) (7.0) (14.9) Uni-President Enterprises Corp NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (2.9) (5.7) () (10.1) 40.6 (3.8) Yakult Honsha Co. Ltd. 2,785 3, (0.5) 9.4 (2.5) Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp (86.7) (12.9) CJ CheilJedang Corp. 275, , (1.6) (6.9) 38.9 Tobacco Japan Tobacco Inc. 522, , () 6.7 (7.3) (20.3) (10.2) (21.9) 91.9 Corp. 89,100 96, ITC Ltd British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Bhd (1.2) (1.7) (2.3) 7.6 (4.5) Gudang Garam 7,900 9, (16.8) (30.4) (7.1) (40.2) HPC Kao Corp. 2,825 3, (1.6) (6.1) (10.3) (14.7) (16.4) (15.9) 13.9 Uni-Charm Corp. 7,400 8, LG Household & Health Care Ltd. 211, ,000 (5.4) (9.4) Shiseido Co. Ltd. 2,585 3, (0.4) (5.0) (3.2) (2.3) Amorepacific Corp. (New) 614, , (0.6) (13.5) (1) (13.5) 48.4 KOSE Corp. 2,480 2, (16.6) (20.3) (16.6) (24.8) 주1: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 Mpustat 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 주2: : 기간별 Best : 기간별 Worst May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 19

20 <Graph 14> Winners and Losers of Last Month CJCheilJedang China Mengniu Aeon Amorepacific Uni-Charm Tingyi Wesfarmers Nissin Shiseido Foster's Belle ITC JT HarveyNorman China Resources Woolworths Parkson Gudang LG H&H KOSE Yakult Li&Fung Seven&I JardineC&C IOI Hite Lion Esprit BAT(MY) GOME Ajinomoto J. Front Retail LotteShopping Coca-Cola Hyundai Dept Uni-President Shimamura Lifestyle Kao Sapporo Shinsegae Kirin Fast Retailing Asahi Yamada Denki Takashimaya Far Eastern Dept Marui (18.2) () (1.6) (1.7) (2.1) (2.5) (3.1) (3.4) (4.4) (4.5) (5.7) (5.8) (6.1) (6.1) (6.3) (6.8) (8.3) (8.3) (9.3) (9.9) (10.1) (10.3) (%) (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 20

21 <Graph 15> PER-EPS Growth Map (Fw 12 PER, X) 35.0 Parkson Yakult China Resources Far Eastern Dept 30.0 Shiseido Nissin Uni-Charm LG H&H Ajinomoto 25.0 JT KOSE Lifestyle China Mengniu Belle Kao Fast Retailing Li&Fung ITC 20.0 Seven&I GOME Asahi Shinsegae Shimamura Hite Amorepacific 15.0 Esprit Wesfarmers Coca-Cola Foster's Yamada Denki J. Front Retail 10.0 LotteShopping JardineC&C HarveyNorman Gudang Hyundai Dept (07~09E EPS CAGR, %) 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 Mpustat 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목 은 당사 추정치 기준임 <Graph 16> PBR-ROE Map (Fw 12 PBR, X) China Mengniu ITC Woolworths 5.0 China Resources Belle Lifestyle IOI Lion GOME 4.0 Shiseido Amorepacific Far Eastern Dept Fast Retailing Coca-Cola 3.0 Shinsegae Ajinomoto JT CJCheilJedang Aeon Seven&I Hite Asahi HarveyNorman Marui Shimamura Yamada Denki LotteShopping JardineC&C 0.0 (08E ROE, %) 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 Mpustat 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목 은 당사 추정치 기준임 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 21

22 <Graph 17> Leading AP Consumer: Forward 12 month PER Gudang 8.6 JardineC&C 10.2 Hyundai Dept 11.3 LotteShopping 11.8 HarveyNorman 1 Yamada Denki 13.5 Foster's 13.9 Coca-Cola 14.2 Esprit 14.3 Takashimaya 14.6 Shimamura 14.7 J. Front Retail 15.0 CJCheilJedang 15.0 Wesfarmers 15.3 BAT(MY) 15.4 Lion 15.8 Kirin Hite 16.9 Amorepacific 17.1 Asahi 17.8 KOSE 18.1 IOI 18.7 Woolworths 19.6 Shinsegae 19.6 Seven&I 20.3 GOME 20.8 Fast Retailing 21.2 Ajinomoto 21.3 Kao 21.5 Li&Fung 22.7 ITC 22.7 Lifestyle 23.0 Belle 23.9 China Mengniu 24.7 China Resources 24.8 JT 25.1 Uni-Charm 25.9 Nissin 26.2 LG H&H 27.7 Shiseido 28.0 Far Eastern Dept 29.8 Yakult 29.9 Sapporo 30.1 Parkson 31.9 Aeon 46.0 Marui 51.7 Tingyi (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 22

23 <Graph 18> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month PBR Marui Gudang J. Front Retail Ajinomoto LotteShopping Takashimaya Aeon Kirin KOSE Seven&I Asahi Nissin JardineC&C Wesfarmers Yakult Shimamura Hite HarveyNorman Yamada Denki JT Foster's Sapporo Far Eastern Dept Kao Shiseido Uni-Charm China Resources Shinsegae CJCheilJedang Fast Retailing Amorepacific Coca-Cola GOME Belle IOI China Mengniu Lifestyle Lion Woolworths ITC Esprit LG H&H Li&Fung Parkson (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 23

24 <Graph 19> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield Tingyi 0.3 Shinsegae 0.3 Yamada Denki 0.4 LotteShopping 0.5 Yakult Uni-Charm China Mengniu 0.9 Sapporo 0.9 Takashimaya 0.9 JT Asahi Amorepacific Belle Aeon 1.2 Shimamura 1.3 J. Front Retail 1.3 Nissin 1.3 Kirin LG H&H Fast Retailing GOME 1.5 Parkson 1.6 Ajinomoto 1.6 KOSE 1.6 Lifestyle 1.7 Seven&I 1.8 ITC 1.8 Far Eastern Dept 1.9 China Resources 1.9 Shiseido Kao IOI 2.3 Marui 3.2 Woolworths 3.5 Li&Fung 3.5 JardineC&C HarveyNorman 3.8 Foster's 4.9 Lion 5.1 Coca-Cola 5.2 Wesfarmers 5.2 Esprit 5.3 Gudang BAT(MY) (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 24

25 <Graph 20> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA JardineC&C KOSE Gudang Kirin Ajinomoto Aeon Takashimaya Seven&I J. Front Retail Shimamura HarveyNorman Asahi Uni-Charm Kao Wesfarmers Coca-Cola LotteShopping JT Yakult Fast Retailing Foster's Yamada Denki Far Eastern Dept Lion Esprit Shiseido Woolworths BAT(MY) Amorepacific Hite China Resources Nissin Sapporo IOI China Mengniu Hyundai Dept Shinsegae ITC GOME Marui Belle Lifestyle Li&Fung Parkson LG H&H (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 25

26 <Graph 21> Leading AP Consumer : PEG Gudang LG H&H IOI HarveyNorman Li&Fung Parkson JardineC&C China Mengniu LotteShopping Belle Takashimaya Woolworths Yamada Denki Wesfarmers Amorepacific Fast Retailing Shinsegae Hite ITC Coca-Cola KOSE Shimamura Ajinomoto Nissin Far Eastern Dept Seven&I Lifestyle Foster's Uni-Charm Lion Asahi BAT(MY) Shiseido Aeon Kao Hyundai Dept J. Front Retail Tingyi (X) 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: EPS GROWTH = 07~09E EPS CAGR May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 26

27 <Graph 22> Leading AP Consumer : Forward 12 month PSR Aeon 0.2 J. Front Retail 0.3 Takashimaya 0.3 Yamada Denki 0.4 JardineC&C 0.4 Gudang 0.5 Seven&I 0.5 Far Eastern Dept 0.5 Ajinomoto 0.6 Asahi 0.6 Wesfarmers 0.6 Marui 0.6 Sapporo Kirin Woolworths Shimamura JT 0.8 Li&Fung 0.8 KOSE 0.8 GOME 0.9 China Resources 0.9 LotteShopping 0.9 China Mengniu Kao 1.2 Nissin 1.2 Shinsegae 1.2 Uni-Charm Coca-Cola Shiseido Fast Retailing 1.6 Yakult 1.6 Lion 2.1 Foster's 2.2 LG H&H 2.2 HarveyNorman 2.3 Hite 2.3 Amorepacific 2.4 Esprit 2.6 Hyundai Dept 2.7 BAT(MY) 3.0 Belle 3.1 IOI ITC Lifestyle (X) Parkson 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 27

28 Korea May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 28

29 III. Domestic Consumer Sector Overview <Graph 23> Korea Consumer Sector Relative to MSCI Korea by industry (%) 175 Tobacco Food Bevarage Retailing HPC /01 06/04 06/07 06/10 07/01 07/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 (2006/01/01=100) <Graph 24> Consumer Industry s Last Month Performance by industry (%) (4.0) (3.7) (8.0) Korea Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Retailing Beverage Food Tobacco Household & Personal Products 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 29

30 <Table 5> Korea Consumer Comparative Valuation Company Name CODE Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) OP G(YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) OP Margin ROE 08E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 08E 09E 08E 09E 08E 09E (%) (W bn) (W bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (W bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary Retail Shinsegae ,184 8, Lotte shopping ,613 10, Hyundai dept ,264 8, , CJ HS , Hyundai H&S , GS HS , F&B, Tobacco ,540 2, CJ Cheiljedang ,107 3, Hite , Lotte confec ,733 12, , Lotte Chilsung ,349 11, Nongshim ,162 1, (0.1) (3.0) Orion ,250 5, (2.9) Samyangsa , Ottogi , Binggrae , Daesang , Maeil Dairy , (19.8) HPC Amorepacific ,589 1, LG H&H ,303 1, Apparel LG fashion , Handsome , 주: 음영 기업은 당사 추정치 기준, 그 외의 기업은 Mpustat 컨센선스 기준 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 30

31 <Table 6> Korea Consumer Comparative Performance Company Name Price Foreign CHG 12-month Forward Valuation Tr. Tr. Performance Ownership 3Mon PER PSR PEG PBR EV/EBITDA 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 3Y (Won) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Valuation Summary Retail Shinsegae 593, (2.8) (6.8) 1.2 (15.6) (5.4) (18.3) 84.2 Lotte shopping 331, (0.9) (3.4) (1.2) (13.5) (10.3) (19.9) NA Hyundai dept 99, (4.5) 14.4 (14.3) 1.9 (16.1) CJ HS 67, Hyundai H&S 82, (0.9) (4.0) (14.5) (17.0) (11.2) 18 GS HS 68, (2.7) (6.3) 2.1 (4.1) F&B, Tobacco 89, CJ Cheiljedang 275, (1.6) 2.6 NA (6.9) NA Hite 121, (0.8) (3.6) (4.0) (15.1) 27.4 Lotte confec 1,219, (15.4) (17.4) 2.4 (27.9) 75.4 Lotte Chilsung 1,090, (1.9) (4.4) (9.9) (8.8) Nongshim 191, (3.5) 4.7 (23.0) (1.8) (37.4) Orion 210, (5.1) (22.9) (23.2) (16.0) 64.7 Samyangsa 52, (0.2) (7.1) (15.6) (7.5) 57.0 Ottogi 151, (3.3) Binggrae 39, (3.7) (9.1) 3.7 (1.8) Daesang 11, () (15.0) 3.6 (4.5) Maeil Dairy 18, (4.9) (23.8) (46.1) (16.0) 94.2 HPC Amorepacific 614, (0.6) (13.5) (1) (13.5) NA LG H&H 211, (9.4) Apparel LG fashion 29, (0.2) (19.8) 13.0 (0.5) NA Handsome 12,650 1 (2.1) (2) (19.1) (7.0) 14.8 주1: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 Mpustat 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 주2: : 기간별 Best : 기간별 Worst May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 31

32 <Graph 25> Winners and Losers of Last Month Orion 18.6 CJ Cheiljedang 16.5 Samyangsa Binggrae Amorepacific Handsome Hyundai H&S GS HS LG fashion Daesang Lotte Chilsung CJ HS Maeil Dairy LG H&H Nongshim Ottogi Lotte confec Hite Lotte shopping Hyundai dept Shinsegae (6.8) (4.5) (3.4) (%) (10.0) 자료: Factset May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 32

33 <Graph 26> PER - EPS Growth Map (Fw 12 PER, X) 20.0 Hite Lotte Chilsung Shinsegae Amorepacific 15.0 CJ HS Orion Nongshim Binggrae Lotte confec Lotte shopping 10.0 Hyundai dept Hyundai H&S LG fashion Samyangsa Maeil Dairy GS HS Ottogi 5.0 Handsome (07~09E EPS CAGR, %) 0.0 (5.0) 자료: Fnguide, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 27> PBR - ROE Map (Tr. PBR, %) 4.0 CJ Cheiljedang Shinsegae Amorepacific 2.5 Orion Lotte confec Nongshim Hite LG fashion 1.5 Daesang CJ HS Hyundai dept Binggrae Lotte Chilsung Ottogi Maeil Dairy 0.5 Samyangsa GS HS Lotte shopping Hyundai H&S Handsome (08E ROE, %) 자료: Fnguide, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 28> PEG Valuation (X) CJ Cheiljedang LG H&H Lotte shopping Amorepacific Shinsegae Hite LG fashion Binggrae CJ HS Ottogi Samyangsa Daesang GS HS Handsome Maeil Dairy Lotte Chilsung Orion Hyundai dept Lotte confec 자료: Fnguide, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 33

34 <Graph 29> Leading Korea Consumer : Forward 12 month PER Handsome 6.3 Ottogi 7.9 GS HS 8.0 Binggrae 9.3 Hyundai H&S 9.9 LG fashion 10.3 Hyundai dept 11.3 Nongshim 11.3 Maeil Dairy 11.7 Lotte shopping 11.8 Lotte confec 12.3 Samyangsa 12.6 Daesang 12.9 CJ HS 14.5 CJ Cheiljedang Hite 16.9 Amorepacific 17.1 Lotte Chilsung 17.5 Orion 18.6 Shinsegae 19.6 LG H&H 27.7 (X) <Graph 30> Leading Korea Consumer : Tr. PBR Samyangsa Handsome Hyundai H&S Lotte Chilsung Lotte confec Maeil Dairy Daesang Nongshim Lotte shopping GS HS Binggrae Ottogi CJ HS Hyundai dept Hite LG fashion Orion Shinsegae Amorepacific CJ Cheiljedang LG H&H (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 34

35 <Graph 31> Leading Korea Consumer : Tr. EV/EBITDA GS HS 3.9 Handsome 4.0 Nongshim 4.9 Binggrae 5.2 Ottogi 6.2 Maeil Dairy 6.5 Samyangsa 7.2 LG fashion 7.3 Daesang 7.6 Lotte Chilsung 8.1 Lotte shopping 8.6 Lotte confec 10.5 CJ HS 10.8 Amorepacific 11.2 Hite Hyundai dept 13.2 Shinsegae 14.4 Hyundai H&S 18.4 LG H&H Orion (X) <Graph 32> Leading Korea Consumer : Forward 12 month PSR Maeil Dairy 0.4 Daesang 0.4 Samyangsa 0.4 Ottogi 0.4 Binggrae Nongshim GS HS Handsome 0.9 Hyundai H&S 0.9 Lotte shopping 0.9 LG fashion Lotte Chilsung Shinsegae 1.2 CJ HS 1.3 Lotte confec Orion 2.2 LG H&H 2.2 Hite 2.3 Amorepacific 2.4 Hyundai dept (X) May 22, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 35

36 Catching the Consumer : valuation Analyst 한국희 cookie@miraeasset.com 투자의견 종목별 투자의견 (6개월 기준) BUY : 현주가 대비 목표주가 +20% 초과 Hold : 현주가 대비 목표주가 ±10%이내 Reduce : 현주가 대비 목표주가 20%초과 단, 업종 투자의견에 의한 ±10%내의 조정치 감안 가능 업종별 투자의견 Attractive : 현 업종지수대비 +10% 초과 Neutral : 현 업종지수대비 ±10% 이내 Cautious : 현 업종지수 대비 10%초과 업종별 투자의견의 용어를 재정리 함 Overweight Attractive / Underweight Cautious로 2005년 8월 3일부터 변경함 Earnings Quality Score Earnings Quality Score = 0*(Earnings Stability) *(Earnings Certainty) *(Earnings Forecast Accuracy) 1. Historical Earnings Stability - 최근 5년간 분기 순이익 성장률(YoY)의 변동성을 100분위 지표로 환산. - 변동성은 outlier에 의한 왜곡현상을 최소화하기 위해 표준편차(SD) 대신 MAD(Median Absolute Deviation)로 산정. - 순이익 분기 성장률(YoY) 변동성이 낮을수록 동 지표값이 높음. 2. Consensus Forecast Certainty - 12개월 예상 EPS(컨센서스 기준) 추정치에 대한 애널리스트간 견해차를 100분위 지표로 환산. - 견해차는 12개월 예상 EPS의 '표준편차 / 평균'으로 산정. - 견해차가 작을수록 동 지표값이 높음. 3. Consensus Forecast Accuracy - 최근 3년간 EPS surprise 절대값의 평균(median)을 100분위 지표로 환산. - EPS surprise는 '(연말 실제치 - 연초 추정치)/연초 추정치'로 산정. - Surprise의 절대크기가 낮을수록 동 지표값이 높음. * 참고사항 1) Consensus Forecast Certainty 및 Consensus Forecast Accuracy는 예상 EPS 컨센서스 추정치 수가 5개 이상인 기업만을 대상으로 하였음. 2) 각 지표를 산정할 수 없을 경우에는 평균인 50을 부여하였음. Compliance Notice 본 자료는 투자자의 증권투자를 돕기 위하여 당사 고객에 한하여 배포되는 자료로서 어떠한 경우에도 복사되거나 대여될 수 없습니다. 본 조사자료에 수록된 내용은 당사 리서치센터가 신뢰할 만한 자료 및 정보로부터 얻어진 것이나 당사는 그 정확성이나 완전성을 보장할 수 없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한 경우에도 본 자료는 고객의 증권투자의 결과에 대한 법적 책임소재에 대한 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. 당사는 5월22일 현재 를 기초자산으로 하는 ELW 발행 및 LP회사임을 알려드립니다. 동 자료는 기관투자가 또는 제3자에게 사전 제공한 사실이 없습니다. 자료에 게재된 내용들은 본인의 의견을 정확하게 반영하고 있으며, 외부의 부당한 압력이나 간섭 없이 작성되었음을 확인함. 작 성 자 : 한국희 담당자 보유주식수 1%이상 유가증권 계열사 자사주 종목 담당자 종류 수량 취득가 취득일 보유여부 발행관련 관계여부 취득부 해당사항없음 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 36