2006. 5. 2 Intel, Qualcomm MK TANAKA, Heraus STS LF : BGA : ASE Amkor STATSChiPAC SPIL ASTAT LF : BGA : IBIDEN Shinko, Nanya MK GDS, IBIDEN, Compeq, Nanya
Contents
Gold Wiring Bumping Lead Frame Package Substrate Ball
Intel, Qualcomm MK TANAKA, Heraus STS LF : BGA : ASE Amkor STATSChiPAC SPIL ASTAT LF : BGA : IBIDEN Shinko, Nanya MK GDS, IBIDEN, Compeq, Nanya
IDM O O,, IBM, Intel PKG X X O, STSASE, STATSChiPAC Fabless O X X, Qualcomm, Nvidia Foundry O X TSMC, UMC PKG X X O, STSASE, STATSChiPAC 1 Intel TSMC TSMC Qualcomm(QCT Div) 2 Samsung UMC UMC ATIT Echnologies 3 Texas Instrument Chartered Chartered NVIDIA 4 Toshiba SMIC SMIC Broadcom 5 ST Microelectronics IBM Vanguard SanDisk Corporation 6 Infineon Technology Vanguard Dongbuanam Agilent(SPG Div) 7 Renesas Technology Hynix HHNEC Xilinix 8 Philips Semiconductor UMCj Jazz Semi Marbell Semiconductor 9 AMD Dongbuanam X-Fab MediaTek Incorporation 10 NEC Electronics HHNEC He Jian Altera
Chip Bump Substrate Gold Wiring Bumping
Au Bump Solder Bump
15,000 12,000 9,000 4,644 5,148 5,889 6,664 7,308 IDM 6,000 3,000 6,156 6,292 6,641 6,936 7,022 PKG 0 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
25% MKE 45% K&S 9% 15% TANAKA 29% Heraus 30% MKE 12% Heraus 13% Sumitomo 22%
Bonding Wire chip Bump BumpBonding Wire
8.0 300 7.5 Lead Frame 250 7.0 200 6.5 BGA 150 6.0 2003 2004 2005 100
5,000 4,000 3,000 LG 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
P-BGA BGA packaging CSP Chip 120% BGA Mobile BOC Chip Chip Wire Bonding DDR2 packaging UTCSP 0.12mm CSP MCP FC-BGA Chip BumpChipBGA CPU, Chipset, GPU BGA/CSP MCM FC-BGA BOC BGA(Ball Grid Array) CSP(Chip Scale Package) UT-CSP (Ultra-Thin CSP) FC-BGA (Filp Chip BGA)
Chip-substrate Gold-Wiring bump Substrate-MB Ball Ball Ball 600~700 Ball 700~6,000 Ball Line/Space 30 /30 20 /20 Pattern subtractive Semi-additive
IBIDEN Intel CPU SHINKO Intel CPU Intel NorthBridge Chipset, GPU Nanya Intel NorthBridge Chipset, GPU
Amkor Technology Korea Amkor Technology 5,654 STATSChiPAC Korea STATS( )ChiPAC( ) 4,036 Philips 1,426 1,166 STS 1,189 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 STS 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 non-memory 1,000 500 0 2000 2002 2004 2006E 2008E 2010E memory 42.6 18.5 16.3 9.2 6.9 6.5
350 300 250 200 Server Portable 150 100 50 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E Desk Top 1,200 1,000 800 3G 600 400 200 0 2G 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2.5G
16,000 12,000 8,000 CSP 4,000 BGA 0 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 PKG HHP FPC 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 MM LCD NW 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 Infineon Micron Hynix 200 Samsung 0 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 80 60 Infineon Hynix Micron Samsung 40 20 0 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06
150 100 FC-BGA CSP 50 P-BGA BOC 0 2005 2006E
O O O O O O X O O LF PS PS Substrate BW Bump X O X FC-BGA BW Bump FC-BGA SB X O O DDR2 & BOC PS Substrate BW Bump O BW Bump LF PS SB MK MKSTS LG
500 2004A 3,167 34.4 252 389 330 719 44.9 14.1 4.9 9.0 244 2005A 3,340 5.5 277 435 330 1,000 39.1 9.3 2.9 8.8 4,348 2006E 3,619 8.4 282 463 361 739-26.1 12.1 2.3 9.2 7,868 2007E 4,063 12.2 351 552 430 882 19.3 10.1 1.7 10.3 19.8% 2008E 4,421 8.8 371 593 462 947 7.4 9.4 1.3 10.4
3,167 3,340 3,619 4,063 4,421 428 857 594 696 654 398 414 428 509 540 330 330 361 430 462 146 137 146 158 169 246 284 278 274 269 0 0 0 0 0 252 277 282 351 371-184 180-93 -56-125 255 244 269 295 320 36 63 47 47 48 112 102 118 130 144-310 -472-417 -493-456 2 12 12 12 12 118 85 88 94 98 1 0 0 0 0 9 12 12 12 12 389 435 463 552 593 389 435 463 552 593 59 106 102 121 130 330 330 361 430 462 EBIT(adjusted) 294 338 348 425 453 EBITDA 540 622 626 700 722-461 -274-260 -260-260 53 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-171 -78-31 -33-34 268-124 -126-200 -162-264 -156-173 -172-173 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-4 -4-4 -138-156 -156-171 -171-126 0-13 3 2-146 228 3 31 25 2,416 2,778 2,993 3,359 3,656 ( ) 1,396 1,757 1,886 2,118 2,304 SPS 6,900 10,133 7,417 8,325 9,060 EPS 719 1,000 739 882 947 513 465 504 565 615 DPS 350 350 350 350 350 325 308 333 374 407 BPS 7,517 7,868 8,257 8,789 9,386 (%, YoY) 1,770 1,821 1,835 1,855 1,881 34.4 5.5 8.4 12.2 8.8 971 1,035 1,066 1,098 1,133 47.4 9.7 1.7 24.6 5.8 798 785 768 755 747 23.6 12.0 6.2 19.3 7.4 43.1-0.1 9.5 19.3 7.4 4,186 4,599 4,828 5,214 5,537 EPS 44.9 39.1-26.1 19.3 7.4 489 679 714 834 860 EBITDA 26.7 15.3 0.7 11.7 3.2 343 477 517 580 631 (%) 8.0 8.3 7.8 8.6 8.4 0 0 0 0 0 12.3 13.0 12.8 13.6 13.4 0 0 0 0 0 10.4 9.9 10.0 10.6 10.5 EBITDA Margin 17.0 18.6 17.3 17.2 16.3 28 80 85 91 96 ROE 9.0 8.8 9.2 10.3 10.4 0 0 0 0 0 (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Credit) -1,396-1,757-1,887-2,118-2,305 517 759 798 925 956 244 244 244 244 244 1,426 1,426 1,426 1,426 1,426 2,355 2,528 2,718 2,978 3,269-355 -358-358 -358-358 3,669 3,840 4,030 4,290 4,581 485.5 882.8 - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 19.8 19.8 21.6 20.9 Valuation(X) PSR 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 PER 14.1 9.3 12.1 10.1 9.4 PBR 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 EV/EBITDA 4.9 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.3
500 2004A 1,472 65.6 113 180 180 681 342.5 6.2 5.7 26.4 136 2005A 2,292 55.6 223 178 174 656-3.7 9.5 6.5 21.0 2,938 2006E 3,081 34.5 381 325 283 1,040 58.6 10.4 6.5 28.3 4,076 2007E 3,473 12.7 447 399 347 1,277 22.8 8.5 5.3 27.5 202.2% 2008E 3,814 9.8 505 474 412 1,516 18.7 7.1 4.2 25.9
1,472 2,292 3,081 3,473 3,814 342 137 478 704 734 224 372 562 644 716 180 174 283 347 412 110 149 181 197 211 120 167 195 208 220 0 1 1 1 1 113 223 381 447 505 69-224 -19 128 81 161 93 110 117 124-27 18 19 19 19 9 9 12 14 16-601 -599-403 -353-303 0 0 0 0 0 94 138 166 165 155 35 60 75 69 54 0 0 0 0 0 180 178 325 399 474 180 178 325 399 474 0 4 42 52 62 180 174 283 347 412 EBIT(adjusted) 179 226 387 453 511 EBITDA 300 393 581 662 732-565 -439-400 -350-300 89 16 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0-1 -166-1 -1-1 -181-10 -1-1 -1 262 484-10 -318-359 0 0 0 0 0 309 548 41-268 -308 0-49 -49-51 -51-48 -15-1 0 0 2 21 66 33 73 930 1,114 1,443 1,583 1,742 ( ) 284 315 381 414 486 SPS 5,566 8,627 11,328 12,770 14,022 EPS 681 656 1,040 1,277 1,516 226 380 508 556 591 DPS 186 186 186 186 186 332 327 462 521 572 BPS 2,841 3,222 4,076 5,167 6,497 (%, YoY) 1,304 1,726 1,931 2,073 2,153 65.6 55.6 34.5 12.7 9.8 95 259 259 259 259 166.4 96.5 70.8 17.4 12.9 1,209 1,458 1,664 1,805 1,885 342.5-1.3 82.7 22.8 18.7 342.5-3.3 62.4 22.8 18.7 2,234 2,840 3,375 3,656 3,894 EPS 342.5-3.7 58.6 22.8 18.7 1,082 1,112 1,764 2,328 2,004 EBITDA 107.2 31.1 47.9 13.9 10.6 112 148 216 243 267 (%) 7.7 9.7 12.4 12.9 13.2 293 470 632 713 783 12.2 7.8 10.5 11.5 12.4 236 123 350 580 0 12.2 7.6 9.2 10.0 10.8 EBITDA Margin 20.3 17.1 18.9 19.0 19.2 380 843 494-86 115 ROE 26.4 21.0 28.3 27.5 25.9 0 470 280-190 10 (%) 355 361 201 91 91 884 1,425 1,463 1,194 884 (Credit) 571 1,056 1,029 727 344 1,461 1,955 2,258 2,242 2,119 3.2 3.7 5.1 6.5 9.4 136 136 136 136 136 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.4 189.2 221.0 202.2 158.6 119.3 489 489 489 489 489 Valuation(X) 180 305 537 834 1,196 PSR 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8-32 -45-45 -45-45 PER 6.2 9.5 10.4 8.5 7.1 PBR 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.1 1.7 773 885 1,117 1,414 1,775 EV/EBITDA 5.7 6.5 6.5 5.3 4.2
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 04.4 04.10 05.4 05.10 06.4 20048 2 BUY 15,000 2004830 BUY 11,500 2005225 BUY 11,000 20057 4 BUY 10,000 20065 2 BUY 10,000
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 04.4 04.10 05.4 05.10 06.4 2005314 BUY 7,200 2006417 BUY 15,000 20065 2 BUY 15,000
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