2008 다문화가족의중장기전망및대책연구 : 다문화가족의장래인구추계및사회ㆍ경제적효과분석을중심으로 ㆍ ㆍ 2009
.
다문화가족의중장기전망및대책연구 : 다문화가족의장래인구추계및사회ㆍ경제적효과분석을중심으로 ㆍ ㆍ 2009 10
A Study of the Medium- to Long-term Prospects and Measures of Multicultural Family in Korea: On the Focus of the Population Projection of Multicultural Family in Korea, and the Analysis of Its Socio-economic Impacts on Korean Society Dong-Hoon Seol Moon-Hee Suh Sam-Sic Lee Myoung-Ah Kim October 20, 2009 75 Yulgok-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 110-793, Korea
2008 : ㆍ. 2009 ㆍ 10 ㆍ 20 : : (, ) : (, ) (, ) (, ) : (, ) (, ) (, )
iv
.,.,,, IOM,,.,,.. 2009 10 20 v
vi
: ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ 1. 1),.,,. -,.. 2),,.. 1, 2. vii
.,....,., 2020 ㆍ,,. 2009 2020, 2020 ( ).. 2009 2020,.,. 3).,,,.,. ( 造成法 ) (cohort component method). (,, ) 7 1.. 7 1 ( 年央 ), 2009 (population estimates) viii
(,, ) (population projections). 2009., -., 2009 -,., -., 1, 2020 2009, 2020. (delphi)., ㆍ..., -,,.,.,... 2. 1) ix
..,,,,.,,,,,,,,. 2010 2020. ( 造成法 ). (t) ( a) ( - ) (t+1) a+1., t+1 0 t 15 49.,,,,.,,..,..,., ( ) ( ).,. (P, B, D, I, E, t, MI, ME, DE ) x
,,. 1 (base population): 2009. ( 年央, mid-year). (5 1 ) (7 1 ) 2, 2009 5 1 6 30 (,, )., 2009 5 1 2, 2009 7 1 ㆍㆍ. 2 : ㆍ, ( ),.,, ( )., ㆍ., (period marital fertility rate). ( ),. ( 2008ㆍ5ㆍ1 2009ㆍ4ㆍ30 ) ( 0 2008 11 1 ).,,, 2020 ( 中位 ). xi
., 2006. 3 :. 2006 ㆍ. 4 : ( ) 3 (2006 2008 ) ( ).. ㆍ (0 ) (). 2020., 2006 2000 2005. 2), [ 1], 2009 167 2020 351 110.0%( 6.7%). 2009 17 2020 39 128.3%( 7.5%), 150 312 107.9%( 6.7%)., 2009 8.7 2020 7.9. -, -. xii
400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 183,934 200,753 217,550 234,319 251,062 267,775 284,460 301,112 317,729 334,314 350,862 150,000 167,090 100,000 50,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [ 1], 2009 2020,. 2009 41.3%, 22.8%, 6.3%, 3.2%, 26.5%. 64.1% 2/3. 2020,. (38.0%) (20.2%) 58.2%, (3.3%) (2.9%). 2009 26.5% 2020 35.5%.. 2009 (31.1%), (29.9%), (20.4%), (6.4%), (3.2%), (1.9%), 2020 (31.0%), (22.1%), (26.2%), xiii
(5.9%), (3.7%), (2.8%).,.,,,., ( )., 2009. 2009 2020 ㆍ, 20 30, 40 30. [ 2] 2009 2020. 2020 30, 30. 85세이상 2009년 2020년 80 84세 75 79세 70 74세 65 69세 60 64세 55 59세 50 54세 45 49세 40 44세 35 39세 30 34세 25 29세 25세미만 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 [ 2], 2009 2020 xiv
3). [ 3], 2009 99.7, 2020 302.7 2 (203.7%, 10.1%). 5.7 15.8, 93.9 286.9. 205.4%, 175.8%.,,,.,,,.. 350,000 300,000 281,943 302,692 261,450 250,000 221,405 241,263 200,000 150,000 114,560 130,411 147,144 164,698 183,002 201,942 100,000 99,684 50,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [ 3], 2009 2020 xv
. 2009 (42.4%), (26.2%), (17.6%), (7.7%), (6.1%), 2020. 56.6%, (20.5%), (14.9%), 4.6%), (3.5%). 2009 (25.4%), (24.3%), (22.5%), (10.9%), 2020 (41.0%), (15.9%), (14.4%), (8.3%), (8.1%). 23세이상 2009년 2020년 19 22세 16 18세 13 15세 7 12세 0 6세 80,000 40,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 [ 4], 2009 2020, ().,. [ 4] 2009 2020.. ㆍ (0 6 ) 2009 66.8 2020 156.2 100%. (7 12 ) 20.1 86.6 4. (13 15 ) 3.2 xvi
23.1 7, (16 18 ) 1.9 12.9 6. (19 22 ) 2.2 12.6 6. (23 ) 4.7 11.3 2.,.,,. < 1>. < 1>, 2009 2020 (:, ) 2009 167,090 99,684 266,774 1.000 1.000 1.000 2010 183,934 114,560 298,494 1.101 1.149 1.119 2011 200,753 130,411 331,164 1.201 1.308 1.241 2012 217,550 147,144 364,694 1.302 1.476 1.367 2013 234,319 164,698 399,017 1.402 1.652 1.496 2014 251,062 183,002 434,064 1.503 1.836 1.627 2015 267,775 201,942 469,718 1.603 2.026 1.761 2016 284,460 221,405 505,865 1.702 2.221 1.896 2017 301,112 241,263 542,375 1.802 2.420 2.033 2018 317,729 261,450 579,179 1.902 2.623 2.171 2019 334,314 281,943 616,257 2.001 2.828 2.310 2020 350,862 302,692 653,554 2.100 3.037 2.450 3. ㆍ - 1) ㆍ 1, 2, 3,, 4, 5, 6 xvii
(, )..,., - 2009 10.,, ㆍ. ㆍ. 1 -. 1, 2, 3,, 4, 5, 6. 1 21. 1. 2. 1, 2 (measurement). (Likert),.,,, 2020. 2 22. 2) ㆍ < 2> 2009 2020 ㆍ. 2009, 1,171, 1,148, 23 xviii
. 242, 179 62. 156, 231-74. 169 203-34. 254 168 86. 148 186-38. 202 181 21., 2009,,,,. < 2>, 2009 2020 (: ; 2009 ) 2009 2020 - - 1,171 1,148 23 4,726 4,633 93 242 179 62 975 725 251 156 231-74 632 931-299 ㆍ 169 203-34 681 820-138 254 168 86 1,025 677 348 148 186-38 598 751-153 202 181 21 814 730 85 2009 2009 1 100, 2009 2020 1, 164.8%. 2020 1. 2020 1 1,148, 2020. 2009 2020 2.45 xix
, 4,633. < 2> 2020 2009. 2020 4,726, 4,633, 93., 975, 725, 251. 632, 931, 299. 681, 820, 138. 1,025, 677, 348. 598, 751 153. 814, 730, 85., 2020.,,,,,,. < 3>, 2009 2020 (: ; 2009 ) 2009 2020 % % 511 100.0 2,063 100.0 318 62.2 884 42.9 ㆍ 120 23.5 570 27.6 61 11.9 458 22.2 12 2.3 151 7.3 < 3> 2009 2020. 2009 (). 2009 511, 318, xx
ㆍ 120, 61, 12. 2020, 2,063, 884, ㆍ 570, 458, 151. 3). 2009 4 8,249, 5,503, 2,746. < 4>. 4,051, 7,024 11,075. 0.77% 20 1.07%. < 4> (A) 20 (B) (C) (C/A) (:, %) 20 (C/B) 1,444,010 1,038,677 4,051 7,024 11,075 0.77 1.07 : (2009), 2008. xxi
< 5> (:, %) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 23,103 1,327 5,091 6,051 4,638 3,597 2,399 561 23,664 (39.05) (7.05) (38.98) (67.75) (65.55) (58.48) (46.97) : ( ). : (2009. 4) e-. < 5> 2009 4 23,103, 39.05%. 0 7.1% 1 39.0%, 2 67.8%, 3 65.6%, 4 58.5%, 5 47.0%., 58.9%, 16.0%, 13.5%, 11.1%. < 6>, 2009 4 19,626 33.2%. 0 6.7% 1 34.9%, 2 60.4%, 3 51%, 4 46.7%, 5 38.8%. 2009 4 50 2280 ( 7). < 6> (:, %) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 19,626 (33.18) 1,237 (6.57) 4,559 (34.91) 5,391 (60.36) 3,608 (51) 2,871 (46.68) 1,960 (38.37) 419 20,045 : (2009. 4) e-. < 7> 2009 4 20,045 502,280 19,626 497,622 5 : 6. : (2009. 4) e-. (:, %) xxii
,,. < 8>,, 5. 4 2009 51 5 2015 2009 1.8 93 6 2020 2.2 114 8100. 2009 618 2020 1377 7200. < 8>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 436 552 593 632 668 701 732 760 783 804 825 845 1 1320 1109 1403 1507 1605 1697 1783 1861 1930 1989 2044 2098 2 1246 1555 1306 1652 1775 1890 1998 2099 2192 2273 2342 2408 3 1342 1876 2340 1966 2487 2672 2845 3008 3160 3300 3422 3526 4 461 556 777 969 814 1030 1107 1178 1246 1309 1366 1417 5 343 401 482 675 841 707 894 961 1023 1082 1137 1187 5150 6048 6901 7400 8190 8697 9360 9868 10335 10757 11137 11481 : 1) 2009, 2000. 2). 4. 1) ㆍ ㆍ ( 同化 ),,. ㆍ,., (assimilation perspectives) xxiii
.. < 9> ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ,. ㆍ,,,. ㆍ ㆍ. ㆍ,, ㆍ,,, ㆍ,,,, (human capital theory),,., ㆍ,., (eventual assimilation and interethnic accommodation).,,, ㆍ (ethnic hierarchies). (effects of structural constraints).,.,,,,..,,,. ㆍ xxiv
.,,,, ㆍ,,,.. 2) ㆍ,,.,,.,,., (tolérance, 寬容 ) (laïcité, 政敎分離原則 )...,. ㆍ..,.. (interculturalism).., (multiculturalism), ㆍ ㆍ xxv
ㆍ ㆍ.,.,.,..,.?.. 5. 1) 2020. (trend),,. 10 (aging society), (aged society). ( ),.,,.., 10. xxvi
.. -,.,. 2009 70 16.,.... 2020 ㆍ 2009 1,106,884 2.45 2,711,866, 49,325,689 5.5%. < 10> ㆍ, 2009 2020 2009 2020 49,593,665 49,325,689 ㆍ 1,106,884 2,711,866 2.2 5.5 :, 2009, 2009.,, 2006. (:, %) 2),, xxvii
. 2008, ㆍ. :.,,,,.,,. 2.45 2020.,..,,. (family life cycle),.,,,,, ㆍ..,.. xxviii
3).,. ㆍ ㆍ.., ㆍ ㆍ.,. (F-5) (F-2-1) (F-2-2).,.,.. ㆍㆍ., ( ).,,.,. xxix
,. ( 生得的 ).,..,.,.,.,..,. ㆍ.. ㆍ.,. ㆍ,. ㆍ.,. xxx
iii v vii 1 1 1. 3 2. 5 1) 5 2) 6 3. 8 4. 17 2 19 1. 21 1) 21 2) 21 2. 29 1) 29 2) 34 3) 40 3 ㆍ - 41 1. ㆍ 43 1) ㆍ 43 2) 44 xxxi
3) 50 2. : 56 1) 56 2) 57 3. 60 1) 60 2) 63 3) 64 4) 65 5) 2020 1 66 6) 2020 66 4. - 68 1) ㆍ 68 2) 70 3) 74 4) 79 4 : 81 1. 83 1) 83 2) 89 3) 92 2. 92 1) 92 2) 95 3) 99 4) 101 xxxii
5 103 1. ㆍ 105 1) 105 2) 106 3) 107 4) 110 2. 111 6 117 1. 119 2. 123 3. 128 1) 128 2) 129 3) 131 4) 132 5) 133 6) 134 135 147 1., 2009 2020 149 2. 1 164 3. 1 171 4. 2 174 179 xxxiii
< 1-1>, 1990 2008 xvii < 1>, 2009 2020 xix < 2>, 2009 2020 xx < 3>, 2009 2020 xxi < 4> xxi < 5> xxii < 6> xxii < 7> 2009 4 xxii < 8>, 2009 2020 xxiii < 9> ㆍ xxiv < 10> ㆍ, 2009 2020 xxvii < 1-1>, 1990 2008 8 < 1-2>, 2000 2008 11 < 1-3>, 2000 2008 11 < 1-4>, 2000 2008 12 < 1-5>, 2000 2008 12 < 1-6>, 2002 2008 13 < 1-7> ㆍ, 2009 14 < 1-8>, 2009 14 < 1-9>, 2009 15 < 1-10>, 2009 16 < 1-11>, 2009 16 < 2-1> 25 xxxiv
< 2-2> 25 < 2-3>, 2009 2020 26 < 2-4>, 2005 2020 27 < 2-5> 29 < 2-6>, 2009 2020 30 < 2-7>, 2009 2020 33 < 2-8>, 2009 2020 35 < 2-9>, 2009 2020 38 < 2-10>, 2009 2020 39 < 3-1> 53 < 3-2> 54 < 3-3> 60 < 3-4> 61 < 3-5> ㆍ 61 < 3-6> 62 < 3-7> 62 < 3-8> 63 < 3-9> 2009 67 < 3-10>, 2020 68 < 3-11> :, 2020 71 < 3-12> :, 2020 72 < 3-13>, 2020 73 < 3-14>, 2020 73 < 3-15> 2009 511 74 < 3-16>, 2009 75 < 3-17> 1, 2009 2020 76 xxxv
< 3-18>, 2009 2020 77 < 3-19>, 2009 2020 77 < 3-20> 2020 78 < 3-21>, 2009 2020 79 < 4-1>,, 2009 84 < 4-2>, 2009 85 < 4-3> 87 < 4-4>, 2009 88 < 4-5>, 2009 7 89 < 4-6>, 2009 90 < 4-7>, 2009 2020 90 < 4-8> 2009, 2009 2020 91 < 4-9> 93 < 4-10> 93 < 4-11> 94 < 4-12> 95 < 4-13> 95 < 4-14> 96 < 4-15> 96 < 4-16> 97 < 4-17> 98 < 4-18> 2009 4 98 < 4-19>, 2009 99 < 4-20>, 2009 2020 100 < 4-21> 2009, 2009 2020 101 xxxvi
< 5-1> ㆍ 110 < 6-1> ㆍ, 2009 2020 121 < 6-2> OECD, 2007 121 < 6-3> ㆍ, 2004 2008 122 < 6-4> 129 xxxvii
[ 1], 2009 2020 xiii [ 2], 2009 2020 xiv [ 3], 2009 2020 xv [ 4], 2009 2020 xvi [ 1-1], 2005 2050 4 [ 1-2], 2010 2020 4 [ 1-3], 2008 10 [ 2-1] 22 [ 2-2] 2000 2005, 2000 28 [ 2-3], 2009 2020 31 [ 2-4], 2009 2020 32 [ 2-5], 2009 2020 34 [ 2-6], 2009 2020 36 [ 2-7], 2009 2020 37 [ 2-8], 2009 2020 39 [ 2-9], 2009 2020 40 [ 3-1] 47 [ 3-2] 57 [ 3-3] 1 58 [ 3-4] 2 59 [ 3-5] - 64 xxxviii
[ 3-6] - 65 [ 5-1] 112 [ 5-2] 114 [ 6-1] 124 [ 6-2] 125 [ 6-3] 126 [ 6-4] 127 xxxix
xl
제 1 장 서론 1
1 1.,..,.. 1).,.. ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ, ㆍ,,. 2005 2006 11, 2018 49,340,350 (peak),. [ 1-1], 2020 49,325,689, 2030 48,634,571, 2040 44,343,017, 2050 42,342,769.,. [ 1-2] 2010 2020,,. 1) (national interests) (humanitarianism). 3
50,000 49,000 49,340,350 49,325,689 48,000 48,138,077 47,000 46,000 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 42,342,769 41,000 40,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 :, http://kosis.kr.. [ 1-1], 2005 2050 ( ) 2010 ( ) 2020 :. :,, 2006, p. 52. [ 1-2], 2010 2020 4
.,...,,. -,.. 2. 1),,.. 1, 2. 5
.,....,., 2020 ㆍ,,. 2009 2020, 2020 ( ).,. 2009 2020,.,. 2).,,,.,. ( 造成法 ) (cohort component method).,,,. ㆍ (2008) (2009: 54-62) 6
.., ( ㆍㆍ ) 7 1.. 7 1 ( 年央 ), 2009 (population estimates) (,, ) (population projections). 2009., -., 2009 -,., -., 1, 2020 2009, 2020. (delphi)., ㆍ..., -,,.,.,... 7
3.. < 1-1> 1990 2008. 1990 1994 5 ( 2%),. 1995 13,494 ( 3.4%),., 1995 (turning point). < 1-1>, 1990 2008 % % % 1990 399,312 4,710 1.2 619 0.2 4,091 1.0 1991 416,872 5,012 1.2 663 0.2 4,349 1.0 1992 419,774 5,534 1.3 2,057 0.5 3,477 0.8 1993 402,593 6,545 1.6 3,109 0.8 3,436 0.9 1994 393,121 6,616 1.7 3,072 0.8 3,544 0.9 1995 398,484 13,494 3.4 10,365 2.6 3,129 0.8 1996 434,911 15,946 3.7 12,647 2.9 3,299 0.8 1997 388,591 12,448 3.2 9,266 2.4 3,182 0.8 1998 375,616 12,188 3.2 8,054 2.1 4,134 1.1 1999 362,673 10,570 2.9 5,775 1.6 4,795 1.3 2000 332,090 11,605 3.5 6,945 2.1 4,660 1.4 2001 318,407 14,523 4.6 9,684 3.0 4,839 1.5 2002 304,877 15,202 5.0 10,698 3.5 4,504 1.5 2003 302,503 24,776 8.2 18,751 6.2 6,025 2.0 2004 308,598 34,640 11.2 25,105 8.1 9,535 3.1 2005 314,304 42,356 13.5 30,719 9.8 11,637 3.7 2006 330,634 38,759 11.7 29,665 9.0 9,094 2.8 2007 343,559 37,560 10.9 28,580 8.3 8,980 2.6 2008 327,715 36,204 11.0 28,163 8.6 8,041 2.5 1990 2008 6,874,634 348,688 5.1 243,937 3.5 104,751 1.5 :,,. 8
. 2003 25,659 ( 8.4%)., 2004 34,640 ( 11.2%), 2005 42,356 ( 13.5%). 2006 2006 38,759, 2008 36,204 2., 2006, 10%. 2008, (13.8%) (7.6%). 2008 6,458 38.3% 2,472. (marriage squeeze).,.,. 80%,.,.,..,.,. [ 1-3]., 100, 301~500, 501. 1501. 9
: ㆍ (2009: 5). [ 1-3], 2008 < 1-2>, 1990, 1995 10
. < 1-2>, 2000 2008 (:, %) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % + 6,945 9,684 10,698 18,751 25,105 30,719 29,665 28,580 28,163 100.0 3,566 6,977 7,023 13,347 18,489 20,582 14,566 14,484 13,203 46.9 77 134 474 1,402 2,461 5,822 10,128 6,610 8,282 29.4 1,174 502 838 928 947 980 1,117 1,497 1,857 6.6 819 701 690 844 809 883 1,045 1,206 1,162 4.1 - - - 19 72 157 394 1,804 659 2.3 240 182 327 345 324 266 271 524 633 2.2 64 118 194 320 504 561 594 745 521 1.8 43 66 183 328 247 332 314 351 492 1.7 962 1,004 969 1,218 1,252 1,136 1,236 1,359 1,354 4.8 + 4,660 4,839 4,504 6,025 9,535 11,637 9,094 8,980 8,041 100.0 2,630 2,664 2,032 2,250 3,118 3,423 3,412 3,349 2,743 34.1 210 222 263 1,190 3,618 5,037 2,589 2,486 2,101 26.1 1,084 1,113 1,204 1,222 1,332 1,392 1,443 1,334 1,347 16.8 150 164 172 219 227 283 307 374 371 4.6 78 78 90 109 132 101 137 158 164 2.0 64 69 86 88 120 104 136 125 144 1.8 36 63 126 130 100 219 150 134 117 1.5 82 94 81 94 109 85 126 98 115 1.4 326 372 450 723 779 993 794 922 939 11.7 :,,. (: %) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 + + < 1-3>, 2000 2008 (A) 75.3 66.8 65.5 58.3 53.5 55.7 63.6 62.8 64.7 (B) 24.7 33.2 34.5 41.7 46.5 44.3 36.4 37.2 35.3 (A/B) 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.8 (A) 63.2 61.2 63.3 56.8 45.9 43.3 55.2 57.6 58.4 (B) 36.8 38.8 36.7 43.2 54.1 56.7 44.8 42.4 41.6 (A/B) 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 :,,. 11
. < 1-3>, 2008 35.3%, 41.6%.., ( 晩婚 ). < 1-4>,. 37.18, 30.69, 6.28, 2.12. < 1-4>, 2000 2008 (:, ) 2000 29.14 34.18 26.44 29.90 2001 29.35 34.94 26.73 30.13 2002 29.57 35.33 26.98 29.88 2003 29.80 36.40 27.26 30.44 2004 30.07 37.19 27.51 31.26 2005 30.28 37.74 27.78 31.80 2006 30.43 37.28 28.01 30.74 2007 30.65 37.22 28.26 31.16 2008 30.90 37.18 28.57 30.69 :,,. < 1-5>, 2000 2008 (:, ) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 + 6.9 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.4 9.1 11.6 11.5 11.8 + 6.6 6.5 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 + 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 :,,. 12
,, 2008 9.5, 1.8. < 1-5>, 2008 11.8 2000 6.9 4.9, 4.1 2000 6.6 2.5. < 1-6>,.,,. 2002 1,744 (144,910 ) 1.2%. 2008 11,255 (116,535 ) 9.7%. 31.1%. 2008 70.7%(7,962 ), 29.3%(3,293 ). < 1-6>, 2002 2008 (:, %) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 144,910 166,617 138,932 128,035 124,524 124,072 116,535 1,744 2,012 3,300 4,171 6,136 8,671 11,255 1.2% 1.2% 2.4% 3.3% 4.9% 7.0% 9.7% 15,202 24776 34640 42356 38759 37560 36204 11.5% 8.1% 9.5% 9.8% 15.8% 23.1% 31.1% :,,. < 1-7> 2009 5 1. 167,090 ㆍ, 17,237, 149,853.. 13
< 1-7> ㆍ, 2009 167,090 17,237 149,853 ( ) 53,754 7,115 46,639 () 48,698 3,933 44,765 30,779 165 30,614 9,799 204 9,595 5,364 547 4,817 2,841 9 2,832 2,503 45 2,458 2,242 41 2,201 1,623 1,083 540 1,039 54 985 517 116 401 481 54 427 2,126 82 2,044 2,084 1,620 464 275 100 175 2,965 2,069 896 :,, 2009. (: ) < 1-8>, 2009 (: ) 99,797 96,116 3,681 ( ) 24,349 22,665 1,684 () 24,868 23,414 1,453 21,209 21,122 87 10,417 10,343 74 6,818 6,792 26 1,938 1,933 6 1,627 1,486 141 1,617 1,589 28 868 858 10 655 636 20 441 418 23 434 432 2 1,602 1,552 50 1,032 1,006 25 250 250 0 1,671 1,620 51 :,, 2009. 14
< 1-8>. 96,116 3,681, 2) 99,797. < 1-9> 92,690 7,107. 1, 18. 3) < 1-9>, 2009 (:, %) - 107,689 92,690 88,485 4,205 14,999 100.0 86.1 82.2 3.9 13.9 :, 2009, 2009. < 1-10>, 94.2%, 5.8%. 4).,..,. 19 2), 0 6 11.4%, 7 12 11.7%, 13 15 7.3%, 16 18 12.4%, 19 22 25.7%, 23 31.5%. 19. 3),. 0 1, 18 17. 4) < 1-8> 113 99,684. 15
. < 1-11>. 0 6. 2020,. < 1-10>, 2009 99,684 100.0 5,744 5.8 1,505 1.5 1,010 1.0 440 0.4 353 0.4 2,436 2.4 93,940 94.2 22,860 22.9 23,834 23.9 2,1117 21.2 10,268 10.3 6,480 6.5 1,923 1.9 1,597 1.6 1,596 1.6 4,265 4.3 :,, 2009. (:, %) < 1-11>, 2009 (: ) 99,684 5,744 93,940 0 6 66,825 3,466 63,359 7 12 20,888 1,100 19,787 13 15 3,174 227 2,947 16 18 1,934 189 1,745 19 22 2,160 208 1,952 23 4,703 554 4,150 :,, 2009. 16
4. 1,,,. 2 2009 2020. 3 2020 ㆍ. -,. 4. 5. 6,. 17
18
제 2 장 다문화가족인구추계 19
2 1. 1).,,..,...,,,,.,,,,,,,,.,. ( ).,. 2010 2020. 2) ( 造成法 ) (cohort 21
component method). ㆍ ㆍ, (). ㆍ ㆍ, (demographic balancing equation).. (P, B, D, I, E, t ) [ 2-1] 22
(t) ( a) ( - ) (t+1) a+1., t+1 0 t 15 49. [ 2-1] (flow chart).,, ㆍㆍ,.,,..,..,., ( ) ( ).,. (P, B, D, I, E, t, MI, ME, DE ),,. 23
. (base population), (base population).. 2009. 2009 5 1 (,,, ). ( 年央, mid-year). (5 1 ) (7 1 ) 2, 2009 5 1 6 30 (ㆍㆍ )., 2009 5 1 2, 2009 7 1 ㆍㆍ., 2009,., ( ) ( ). 2009 7 1 2009 ( ).. ㆍ, ( ), 24
.,, ( )., ㆍ. < 2-1> ( ) 15 19 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 20 24 0.0881 0.0537 0.1070 0.0000 0.0000 0.1052 25 29 0.1074 0.0776 0.1211 0.0853 0.1073 0.1110 30 34 0.1034 0.0821 0.0710 0.1726 0.0847 0.1254 35 39 0.0483 0.0301 0.0381 0.0623 0.0411 0.0661 40 44 0.0170 0.0086 0.0160 0.0000 0.0123 0.0288 45 49 0.0049 0.0000 0.0049 0.0000 0.0000 0.0141 : (AMFR)= / < 2-2> 15 19 0.1686 0.0204 0.0473 0.1743 0.1426 0.0470 0.3220 0.1117 0.1855 0.1741 20 24 0.2276 0.1458 0.1790 0.2268 0.2341 0.1766 0.4131 0.1024 0.2186 0.1704 25 29 0.1663 0.1366 0.1526 0.1895 0.1762 0.2185 0.3835 0.1337 0.1596 0.1204 30 34 0.0942 0.0831 0.0801 0.1255 0.1059 0.1902 0.2612 0.1076 0.1252 0.0947 35 39 0.0435 0.0371 0.0320 0.0733 0.0541 0.1251 0.1813 0.0528 0.0339 0.0669 40 44 0.0140 0.0076 0.0082 0.0497 0.0278 0.0331 0.3326 0.0256 0.0113 0.0412 45 49 0.0034 0.0014 0.0011 0.0281 0.0067 0.0033 0.0000 0.0123 0.0000 0.0260 : (AMFR)= / (period fertility), (cohort fertility).., (period marital fertility rate). 25
( ),. ( 2008ㆍ5ㆍ1 2009ㆍ4ㆍ30 ) ( 0 2008 11 1 ). < 2-1> < 2-2>.,, 2020 ( 中位 ). < 2-3>, 2009 2020 (: 100 ) 2009 107.52 2013 107.01 2017 106.62 2010 108.16 2014 107.66 2018 106.53 2011 107.25 2015 106.80 2019 106.44 2012 107.71 2016 106.70 2020 106.36 :,, 2006..,. ( 100 105 106 )., < 2-3>, 2006. 26
.. (, ㆍ,, ).,.,.. 2006 ㆍ. 2020 ㆍ < 2-4>. < 2-4>, 2005 2020 (: ) - - 2005 75.1 81.9 6.8 2015 76.9 83.6 6.7 2010 76.0 82.7 6.7 2020 77.8 84.5 6.6 :,, 2006.., [ 2-2] 2006 2000 2005.,.,., 27
. - -,. 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.000-0.002-0.004-0.006 남성 여성 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ 남성여성 -0.008-0.010 :,, 2006. [ 2-2] 2000 2005, 2000.,..,.,., 28
( ) < 2-5> 3 (2006 2008 ) ( ).. ㆍ (0 ) (). 2020. < 2-5> (: %) ㆍ ( ) ( ) ㆍ 20 0 () 60 60 2. 1) < 2-6>, 2009 167 2020 351 110.0%( 6.7%) ( 2-3 ). 1) 2009 17 2020 39 128.3%( 7.5%), 150 312 107.9%( 6.7%)., 2009 8.7 2020 7.9. -, - 1) ln(p 2020/P 2009) 11. 29
. < 2-6>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 167090 183934 200753 217550 234319 251062 267775 284460 301112 317729 334314 350862 17236 19299 21351 23396 25431 27456 29470 31472 33462 35440 37405 39356 7120 7856 8588 9316 10040 10760 11475 12185 12890 13591 14286 14975 3929 4307 4682 5055 5426 5795 6162 6526 6888 7247 7603 7957 1080 1101 1123 1144 1165 1185 1206 1225 1245 1264 1283 1301 544 602 659 716 772 828 883 937 990 1043 1095 1146 4563 5434 6300 7165 8028 8888 9745 10599 11449 12295 13139 13977 149854 164636 179402 194153 208888 223606 238306 252988 267650 282289 296909 311506 46642 51215 55782 60341 64893 69437 73973 78500 83017 87524 92021 96507 44764 46977 49186 51390 53590 55786 57977 60164 62344 64519 66688 68850 30612 35259 39904 44547 49189 53828 58465 63101 67734 72365 76995 81622 9596 10398 11200 12001 12802 13602 14401 15200 15999 16796 17593 18389 4822 5431 6040 6648 7256 7862 8468 9073 9678 10281 10884 11486 2829 3360 3890 4421 4951 5481 6011 6541 7070 7599 8128 8657 2458 2759 3061 3362 3663 3963 4264 4564 4864 5164 5463 5762 2199 2460 2720 2980 3240 3500 3759 4019 4278 4537 4796 5054 5932 6776 7620 8463 9305 10146 10987 11827 12666 13504 14341 15178 7.1 15.0, 2009 3.9 2020 8.0, 1.1 1.3, 0.5 1.1, 4.6 14.0. 2009 2020 (206.3%), (110.8%), (110.3%), (102.5%). 2009 46.7 2020 96.5, 44.8 68.9, 30.6 81.6, 9.6 18.4, 4.8 11.5, 2.8 8.7, 2.5 5.8, 2.2 5.1. 2009 2020 (206.0%), (166.6%), (138.2%), (134.4%), (129.8%), 30
(106.9%), (91.6%), (53.8%). 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 183,934 200,753 217,550 234,319 251,062 267,775 284,460 301,112 317,729 334,314 350,862 150,000 167,090 100,000 50,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [ 2-3], 2009 2020,. 2009 41.3%, 22.8%, 6.3%, 3.2%, 26.5%. 64.1% 2/3. 2020,. (38.0%) (20.2%) 58.2%, (3.3%) (2.9%). 2009 26.5% 2020 35.5%.. 2009 (31.1%), 31
(29.9%), (20.4%), (6.4%), (3.2%), (1.9%), 2020 (31.0%), (22.1%), (26.2%), (5.9%), (3.7%), (2.8%).,.,,,., ( )., < 2-7>., 2009, < 2-7> [ 2-4]. 2009 2020 ㆍ, 20 30, 40 30. 85세이상 여자 남자 80 84세 75 79세 70 74세 65 69세 60 64세 55 59세 50 54세 45 49세 40 44세 35 39세 30 34세 25 29세 25세미만 85세이상 여자 남자 80 84세 75 79세 70 74세 65 69세 60 64세 55 59세 50 54세 45 49세 40 44세 35 39세 30 34세 25 29세 25세미만 30,000 10,000 10,000 60,000 20,000 20,000 ( ) 2009 ( ) 2020 [ 2-4], 2009 2020 32
< 2-7>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 167090 183934 200753 217550 234319 251062 267775 284460 301112 317729 334314 350862 24 28288 29525 29858 29336 28421 28446 28890 29827 29960 29970 29972 29972 25~29 26318 30204 34814 38947 42972 45487 46279 45676 45024 44102 44127 44571 30~34 24680 27446 29912 33513 36980 39994 43873 48474 52601 56620 59131 59923 35~39 26337 28076 29493 30776 32289 34909 37669 40129 43723 47182 50191 54063 40~44 21454 23306 26068 29232 31982 33700 35435 36849 38130 39640 42254 45007 45~49 18513 20038 21951 23794 24168 25938 27784 30535 33685 36423 38137 39866 50~54 11789 13713 14997 15775 18451 20570 22087 23989 25819 26199 27961 29803 55~59 5467 6620 7864 9445 11057 12463 14364 15633 16404 19056 21157 22665 60~64 2043 2596 3133 3705 4582 5563 6690 7905 9451 11032 12412 14281 65~69 1064 1156 1260 1453 1703 2079 2611 3127 3680 4525 5473 6563 70~74 610 670 765 865 928 1028 1114 1212 1395 1631 1986 2487 75~79 300 326 365 415 468 530 584 669 759 814 905 981 80~84 149 167 177 182 202 227 249 279 319 360 412 458 85 78 93 96 111 117 126 145 153 162 174 195 221 17236 19299 21351 23396 25431 27456 29470 31472 33462 35440 37405 39356 24 254 347 390 411 416 413 406 384 365 365 365 365 25~29 644 1006 1364 1650 1888 2055 2155 2220 2260 2265 2262 2255 30~34 1295 1673 2028 2408 2788 3151 3512 3868 4154 4391 4558 4658 35~39 2159 2382 2569 2832 3098 3446 3823 4176 4555 4933 5295 5655 40~44 2972 2979 3221 3457 3668 3796 4017 4203 4465 4730 5076 5451 45~49 3613 3751 3831 3972 3928 4091 4100 4340 4573 4783 4911 5130 50~54 3060 3413 3631 3739 4022 4197 4335 4415 4554 4513 4676 4686 55~59 1632 1937 2295 2661 2999 3262 3605 3817 3923 4200 4372 4508 60~64 698 846 985 1126 1369 1631 1922 2263 2612 2935 3187 3516 65~69 402 434 464 511 576 682 819 947 1079 1306 1550 1822 70~74 263 267 287 319 339 367 395 423 465 525 620 743 75~79 138 149 166 186 207 216 219 237 264 281 305 328 80~84 67 68 74 73 81 97 105 118 132 147 154 156 85 38 47 46 50 52 52 56 60 61 66 75 83 149854 164636 179402 194153 208888 223606 238306 252988 267650 282289 296909 311506 24 28035 29178 29469 28925 28005 28033 28484 29443 29595 29605 29607 29607 25~29 25673 29198 33450 37297 41084 43432 44124 43457 42764 41837 41865 42316 30~34 23385 25773 27884 31105 34191 36843 40361 44606 48447 52228 54573 55265 35~39 24178 25694 26924 27944 29191 31463 33846 35953 39168 42249 44896 48408 40~44 18482 20327 22847 25776 28314 29905 31417 32646 33665 34911 37178 39557 45~49 14900 16286 18120 19821 20240 21846 23685 26196 29112 31640 33227 34736 50~54 8729 10300 11366 12036 14429 16373 17752 19574 21265 21685 23286 25116 55~59 3835 4683 5569 6784 8058 9202 10759 11816 12481 14856 16785 18157 60~64 1345 1750 2148 2579 3213 3932 4768 5642 6840 8097 9226 10765 65~69 663 722 796 942 1127 1397 1792 2180 2601 3219 3922 4741 70~74 347 403 477 546 589 661 718 789 930 1106 1366 1744 75~79 162 177 198 229 261 314 365 432 495 533 600 653 80~84 81 99 103 108 121 130 144 161 187 214 258 302 85 40 46 50 61 65 74 89 93 101 109 120 139 33
85세이상 2009년 2020년 80 84세 75 79세 70 74세 65 69세 60 64세 55 59세 50 54세 45 49세 40 44세 35 39세 30 34세 25 29세 25세미만 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 [ 2-5], 2009 2020 [ 2-5] 2009 2020. 2020 30, 30. 2). < 2-1> < 2-2>. < 2-8>, 2009 99.7, 2020 302.7 2 (203.7%, 10.1%) ( 2-6 ). 5.7 15.8, 93.9 286.9. 205.4%, 175.8%.,, 34
,.,,,.. < 2-8>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 99684 114560 130411 147144 164698 183002 201942 221405 241263 261450 281943 302692 5744 6382 7093 7872 8715 9613 10561 11554 12586 13649 14737 15841 1505 1619 1746 1883 2030 2185 2348 2518 2694 2875 3059 3246 1010 1118 1230 1347 1467 1590 1715 1841 1969 2098 2228 2357 440 482 519 553 585 613 638 659 678 696 711 725 353 369 386 403 420 438 456 475 493 512 531 550 2,436 2,794 3,212 3,686 4,213 4,787 5,405 6,061 6,750 7,467 8,207 8,963 93940 108178 123318 139272 155983 173389 191381 209851 228678 247801 267206 286852 22860 24440 26156 27992 29935 31980 34115 36329 38602 40916 43261 45626 23,834 25,892 27,845 29,687 31,434 33,096 34,679 36,180 37,596 38,932 40,196 41,391 21117 27822 35074 42830 51062 59724 68748 78076 87634 97405 107383 117542 10268 11346 12466 13624 14814 16033 17276 18537 19815 21101 22392 23685 6480 6924 7419 7961 8546 9172 9830 10518 11231 11956 12685 13415 1923 3269 4765 6402 8167 10053 12046 14128 16285 18513 20823 23219 1597 1881 2181 2493 2816 3148 3488 3831 4178 4526 4876 5226 1596 1768 1949 2140 2338 2543 2754 2968 3186 3407 3629 3853 4265 4836 5463 6143 6871 7640 8446 9283 10151 11045 11961 12894 2009 2020 (267.9%), (133.4%), (115.7%), (64.8%), (55.8%). 2),.,. 2) ㆍ ㆍ ( ) 1. 35
. (1107.4%), (456.6%), (227.3%), (202.3%), (141.4%), (130.7%), (107.0%)., 2009 1.9 2020 23.2 11, 21.1 117.5 4.6.,., 2009 2020 99.6%, 73.7%.,. 350,000 300,000 281,943 302,692 261,450 250,000 221,405 241,263 200,000 150,000 114,560 130,411 147,144 164,698 183,002 201,942 100,000 99,684 50,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [ 2-6], 2009 2020 36
. 2009 (42.4%), (26.2%), (17.6%), (7.7%), (6.1%), 2020. 56.6%, (20.5%), (14.9%), 4.6%), (3.5%). 2009 (25.4%), (24.3%), (22.5%), (10.9%), 2020 (41.0%), (15.9%), (14.4%), (8.3%), (8.1%)., ().,. < 2-9>, [ 2-7]. 60 세이상 55 59 세 2009 년 2020 년 50 54세 45 49세 40 44세 35 39세 30 34세 25 29세 20 24세 15 19세 10 14세 5 9세 0 4세 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 [ 2-7], 2009 2020 37
< 2-9>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 99684 114560 130411 147144 164698 183002 201942 221405 241263 261450 281943 302692 0 4 56360 65202 73728 80003 84435 92066 97317 102158 106545 110513 114118 117408 5 9 22653 25649 29079 35833 45021 50861 58873 66611 72290 76276 83209 87964 10 14 11039 13249 16102 17696 19072 21035 23816 26991 33247 41765 47213 54668 15 19 3363 3795 4458 6136 8229 10512 12636 15375 16908 18227 20097 22747 20 24 2479 2555 2604 2723 2859 3107 3521 4146 5757 7732 9846 11767 25~29 1801 1850 1900 1924 1957 2031 2093 2134 2232 2344 2548 2891 30~34 840 1004 1166 1315 1443 1514 1554 1595 1615 1641 1704 1755 35~39 566 576 587 628 692 774 924 1074 1213 1332 1398 1435 40~44 250 313 384 443 506 544 553 564 603 665 743 888 45~49 144 167 159 180 198 244 305 375 433 495 533 542 50~54 49 58 94 106 122 141 165 156 178 195 241 301 55~59 55 45 45 46 49 48 56 92 103 119 138 161 60 84 99 104 111 115 125 128 134 140 146 153 165 2020 10 2009, 2009 19. < 2-8> 2009 2020. [ 2-8] 2009 2020.. ㆍ (0 6 ) 2009 66.8 2020 156.2 100%. (7 12 ) 20.1 86.6 4. (13 15 ) 3.2 23.1 7, (16 18 ) 1.9 12.9 6. (19 22 ) 2.2 12.6 6. (23 ) 4.7 11.3 2.,.,,. 38
< 2-10>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 99684 114560 130411 147144 164698 183002 201942 221405 241263 261450 281943 302692 0 6 66825 77628 88480 99342 109763 117887 124064 133132 139672 145657 151152 156192 7 12 20888 22800 25191 28146 32338 38736 47892 54461 63093 71834 80254 86631 13 15 3174 4709 6498 8383 9229 10469 11230 12186 13200 15195 18143 23063 16 18 1934 2174 2552 3109 4607 6359 8215 9049 10261 11009 11951 12938 19 22 2160 2220 2320 2442 2668 3100 3685 5284 7198 9201 10998 12609 23 4703 5030 5370 5722 6094 6451 6856 7292 7839 8553 9445 11259 5744 6382 7093 7872 8715 9613 10561 11554 12586 13649 14737 15841 0 6 3466 3885 4302 4736 5188 5566 5884 6475 6933 7357 7743 8091 7 12 1100 1243 1459 1631 1841 2179 2615 2813 3112 3430 3768 4043 13 15 227 253 280 396 503 610 635 664 761 895 1061 1280 16 18 189 201 213 223 248 275 387 492 598 623 652 746 19 22 208 222 232 257 251 264 282 309 335 453 572 676 23 554 578 607 630 685 720 757 801 846 891 941 1005 93940 108178 123318 139272 155983 173389 191381 209851 228678 247801 267206 286852 0 6 63359 73743 84178 94606 104575 112322 118180 126657 132739 138300 143409 148101 7 12 19787 21557 23732 26515 30497 36557 45277 51648 59980 68405 76485 82588 13 15 2947 4456 6218 7988 8726 9859 10594 11522 12439 14300 17083 21783 16 18 1745 1973 2339 2886 4359 6085 7828 8557 9663 10386 11300 12192 19 22 1952 1998 2088 2186 2417 2836 3403 4975 6863 8748 10426 11933 23 4150 4452 4763 5092 5410 5730 6100 6492 6993 7663 8504 10254 23세이상 2009년 2020년 19 22세 16 18세 13 15세 7 12세 0 6세 80,000 40,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 [ 2-8], 2009 2020 39
3) [ 2-9] 2009 2020. 2009 266,774 2020 653,554. 2009 167,090 2020 350,862, 99,684 302,692. 2009, 2020. 700,000 653,554 616,257 600,000 542,375 579,179 500,000 400,000 300,000 298,494 331,164 364,694 399,017 434,064 469,718 505,865 266,774 200,000 100,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [ 2-9], 2009 2020 40
제 3 장 결혼이민자수용의사회ㆍ경제적비용 - 편익분석 41
3 ㆍ - 1. ㆍ 1) ㆍ ㆍ,.,. (International Organization for Migration, 2005),..,. (Bodvarsson and Van den Berg, 2009: 123-179),,.,,.,,.,... (vacancies) 43
.,,. (Chiswick, 2005; DeVoretz, 2004 ).. ㆍ..,,,,,,, (U.K. House of Lords, 2007a; Gott and Johnston. 2002)., ㆍㆍ..,. 2) 1).,, 1) ㆍ (Ehrenberg and Smith, 2006: 336-343) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ (2007: 8-24) ㆍ (Bodvarsson and Van den Berg, 2009: 107-182) ㆍ. 44
,.,.,,. ㆍ.,., (host country),...,.,,.,..,,,.,, 45
....,..,...,,,.,,.,. (labor market segmentation theories)..., [ 3-1] ( )..,. (total wage bill) [ 3-1] ( ).,. 46
,.,.,. ( ) : Ehrenberg and Smith (2006: 336, 339). [ 3-1] ( ),. [ 3-1] ( )..,.., 47
.. [ 3-1] ( ).,.., [ 3-1] ( ),..,, (scale effect) (substitution effect)..,,.,,.,,.,.,, 48
.,,.,,.,,,?., (aggregate disposable income)...??. (family reunification) ㆍ.,, 1.,., 1.,, 49
.,,.,,. 3) ㆍ -. (minority group). ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ (Wirth, 1945).,,. ㆍ ㆍ ㆍㆍ ㆍ,,,,,..,. (social exclusion). 2.. 50
, ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ (Silver, 1994).. (Kronauer, 1998). (exclusion from the labor market),., (economic exclusion),., (cultural exclusion),., (exclusion by social isolation),., (spatial exclusion).,., (institutional exclusion), ㆍ,, ㆍ...,. ㆍ.,., ㆍ 51
(United Nations, 2006: 97)., ㆍㆍ. (,, ) (Borjas, 1994)..,. (International Organization for Migration, 2005).,.,.., ( 自助 ),...,, (ghetto).,. 52
,,, < 3-1>, ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ( ) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ (. ) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ, ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ,, ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ( ) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ 53
< 3-2> ㆍ (,, ) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ( ) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ, ㆍ (,,, ) ㆍ ( ) ㆍ ( ) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ (, ) ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ( ) ㆍ, ㆍ ( ) ㆍ ㆍ 54
ㆍ. (Kronauer, 1998) ㆍ,.,.,, ㆍ. ㆍ..,,,. (International Organization for Migration, 2005)..,. < 3-1> < 3-2> 1, 2, 3,, 4, 5, 6 (, )..,. 55
2. : 1) (Delphi method) ㆍ.,,. (, 2001: 26-27).., (consensus Delphi),....,... ( 紙筆 ) (standard Delphi),.. 1,. 2, 2. 3 2. 4 56
.. (real-time Delphi),, ㆍ., -. [ 3-2] 2) 2009 10.,, ㆍ. 1 21. 2 57
1 2 16 6. [ 3-2]. ㆍ. 1 - ( 2). 1, 2, 3,, 4, 5, 6 (, ). < 3-1> < 3-2>. [ 3-3] 1. [ 3-3] 1 58
[ 3-4] 2 1 ( 3). 2. 1, 2 (measurement). (Likert),.,,, 2020 ( 4). [ 3-4] 2. 2 1 21 16, 1 6. (coding). 59
3. 1) 1 ㆍ ㆍ, 2.. < 3-3>,,,.,,,. < 3-3>., < 3-4>, 60
,.,,,. < 3-4>. ㆍ < 3-5>.,,.,,. < 3-5> ㆍ :, 61
. < 3-6>.,,.,,,,,. < 3-6> < 3-7> :,. < 3-7>,,,, 62
.,,,,.. < 3-8>.,,, ㆍ,.., ㆍㆍ. < 3-8> ㆍㆍ ㆍ ㆍ 2) 63
., ( ) (,, ㆍ,,, )., (net effect)., -. 5, 1 2 3 4 5., [ 3-5], -100, -50, 0, +50, +100. 1 2 3 4 5-100 -50 0 +50 +100 [ 3-5] - 3)., 1 (100) ㆍ., 1 100 ㆍ., ㆍ (100) 64
( 評定 ). 1 25 2 25 49 3 50 99 4 100 5 101 149 6 150. 150 -, 1.5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 12.5 37.5 75 100 125 150 [ 3-6] -, 4 100-100=0. 4 100-. [ 3-6] (recode).,. ㆍ.. [ 3-5]. 4). 65
., (2009 511 ). 1% 100%.,, 511, 2009.,. 5) 2020 1 2009, 2009 2.45 2020. 2009 1 100, 2020 1 ( 評定 ). 1 25 2 25 49 3 50 99 4 100 5 101 149 6 150 199 7 200 299 8 300 499 9 500., 12.5, 37.5, 75, 100, 125, 175, 250, 400, 500. 2009 1 2020 1 4 100-100=0. 2009 2.45. 2020 2.45 1 2.45. 6) 2020 2.45 2020,., 2009 66
( :, %) 21.456 31,785 62 - - - - 800 2,200 3,500 928 557 216 26 580 500 ( ) 865 - - - (, ) 157 ㆍ 3,164 11.962 24 281 2,461 510 1,420 426 3,500 - ㆍ - 200 < 3-9> 2009 4,844 6,136 12 180 250 - - - ( ) 50 () 800 1,200 1,200 2 67
511 1 (62%), 2 ㆍ (24%), 3 (12%), 4 (2%) ( 3-9 ), 2020. 2020,. 4. - 1) ㆍ < 3-10> 2020. 50.0%, 27.3%, 9.1%, 4.5%., 2020. < 3-10>, 2020 (: %; N=22) ㆍ (-100) 4.5 0.0 31.8 4.5 0.0 4.5 4.5 (-50) 27.3 22.7 36.4 45.5 9.1 59.1 22.7 - (0) 9.1 13.6 4.5 18.2 22.7 4.5 18.2 (50) 50.0 45.5 22.7 27.3 45.5 31.8 45.5 (100) 9.1 18.2 4.5 4.5 22.7 0.0 9.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 15.9 29.5-34.1-9.1 40.9-18.2 15.9 56.5 52.7 64.3 52.6 45.3 50.1 54.3 68
,. 45.5%, 22.7%, 18.2%, 13.6%. 36.4%, 31.8%, 22.7%, 4.5%. ㆍ 45.5%, 27.3%, 18.2%, 4.5%. (45.4%), 22.7%, 9.1%. 59.1%, 31.8%, 4.5%. 45.5%, 22.7%, 18.2%, 9.1%, 4.5%..,,.. < 3-10> -100, -50, 0, +50, -100. 69
15.9. 40.9, 29.5, 15.9, -34.1, -18.2, -9.1. 2020.,,,,,. 2) < 3-11>.,, 50 99 45.5%, 25 59 (22.7%), 25 (13.6%) 100 (13.6%), 150 (4.5%). 25 49 50 99 36.4%, 101 149 (13.6%), 25 100, 150 4.5%. 100 50 99 27.3%, 101 149 22.7%, 150 18.2%, 25 49 4.5%. 50 99 50%, 25 50 99 18.2%, 100 (9.1%), 101 149 (4.5%). 50 99 31.8%, 101 149 (22.7%), 100 (18.2%), 25 49 (13.6%), 25 (9.1%), 150 (4.5%).,, 50 99 31.8% 70
, 25 49 101 149 18.2%, 25 13.6%, 100 150 9.1%. 50 99 54.5%, 100 (22.7%), 101 149 (13.6%), 20 150 4.5%. 50 99 36.4%, 25 49 22.7%, 25 150 9.1%, 100 4.5%. 50 99 45.5%, 100 (27.3%), 25 49 (13.6%), 150 (9.1%), 25 (4.5%). 50 99 50%, 101 149 18.2%, 25 25 49 9.1%, 100 13.6%. 50 99. < 3-11> :, 2020 (: %; N=22) ㆍ 25-13.6 4.5 0.0 18.2 9.1 25 49-22.7 36.4 4.5 18.2 13.6 50 99-45.5 36.4 27.3 50.0 31.8 100 100.0 13.6 4.5 27.3 9.1 18.2 101 149-0.0 13.6 22.7 4.5 22.7 150-4.5 4.5 18.2 0.0 4.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ㆍ 25 13.6-4.5 13.6 4.5 9.1 25 49 18.2-0.0 22.7 13.6 9.1 50 99 31.8-54.5 36.4 45.5 50.0 100 9.1 100.0 22.7 4.5 27.3 13.6 101 149 18.2-13.6 13.6 0.0 18.2 150 9.1-4.5 9.1 9.1 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 < 3-12> 2020., 484.7 100 105.1 71
, 83.5, 69.9, 64.8, 61.4. 100. 497.7 100, 88.1, 80.7, 78.4, 77.8, 72.7. 100,. < 3-12> :, 2020 ( ) 484.7-497.7-100.0-77.8 43.5 64.8 33.8 100.0 - ㆍ 69.9 36.7 88.1 27.9 105.1 31.0 72.7 42.5 61.4 31.6 80.7 32.7 83.5 38.5 78.4 32.5 (N=22) < 3-13> 2020. 50 99 101 149 31.8%, 100 22.7%, 25 25 49 150 4.5%. 95.5., 100 95.5. 72
< 3-13>, 2020 % 25 (12.5) 4.5 25 49(37.5) 4.5 50 99(75) 31.8 100(100) 22.7 101 149(125) 31.8 150 (150) 4.5 100.0 95.5 32.6 (N=22) < 3-14>, 2020 : - 484.7 475.1 9.6 15.9 100.0 74.3 25.7 29.5 64.8 95.5-30.7-34.1 ㆍ 69.9 84.1-14.2-9.1 105.1 69.4 35.7 40.9 61.4 77.0-15.7-18.2 83.5 74.8 8.7 15.9 (N=22) < 3-14> 2020 100. (+) (-). 484.7 475.1., 9.6. 100, 74.3-25.7. 64.8, 95.5 - -30.7. 69.9, 84.1 - -14.2. 105.1, 69.4-35.7 73
. 61.4, 77.0 - -15.7. 83.5, 74.8-8.7. - < 3-10> ( ) 9.6 15.9, 25.7 29.5, -30.7-34.1, -14.2-9.1, 35.7 40.9, -15.7-18.2, 8.7 15.9.,.,,,,,. 3) < 3-15> 2009 511. 23.8% 70, 20 60 19%, 25 30 9.5%, 4.8%., 2009 44.5. < 3-15> 2009 511 % 5 4.8 10 4.8 20 19.0 25 9.5 30 9.5 50 4.8 60 19.0 70 23.8 90 4.8 100.0 44.5 25.1 (N=21) 74
44.5, 2009. 1,148. < 3-16> 2009.. 1,171, 1,148, 23., 21 16 5. 242, 179 62. 14 20 6. 156, 231-74. 15 18 3. 169 203-34. 22 15 8. 254 168 86. 13 16 3. 148 186-38. 18 16 2. 202 181 21. < 3-16>, 2009 (:, ; 2009 ) - - 102 100 2 1,171 1,148 23 21 16 5 242 179 62 14 20-6 156 231-74 ㆍ 15 18-3 169 203-34 22 15 8 254 168 86 13 16-3 148 186-38 18 16 2 202 181 21 75
2009,,,,. < 3-17> 2009 2009 1 100, 2009 2020 1. 150 199 31.8%, 50 99 101 149 22.7%, 200 299 18.2%, 300 499 4.5%. 164.8%. 2020 1. 2020 1 1,148, 2020. 4,633. < 3-17> 1, 2009 2020 % 50 99(75) 22.7 101 149(125) 22.7 150 199(175) 31.8 200 299(250) 18.2 300 499(400) 4.5 100.0 164.8 79.7 (N=22) < 3-18> 2009 2020 ( 2 ). 2009 167,090, 99,684 266,774. 2020 350,862, 302,692 653,554. 2009 2020 2.45. 76
< 3-18>, 2009 2020 (:, ) 2009 167,090 99,684 266,774 1.000 1.000 1.000 2010 183,934 114,560 298,494 1.101 1.149 1.119 2011 200,753 130,411 331,164 1.201 1.308 1.241 2012 217,550 147,144 364,694 1.302 1.476 1.367 2013 234,319 164,698 399,017 1.402 1.652 1.496 2014 251,062 183,002 434,064 1.503 1.836 1.627 2015 267,775 201,942 469,718 1.603 2.026 1.761 2016 284,460 221,405 505,865 1.702 2.221 1.896 2017 301,112 241,263 542,375 1.802 2.420 2.033 2018 317,729 261,450 579,179 1.902 2.623 2.171 2019 334,314 281,943 616,257 2.001 2.828 2.310 2020 350,862 302,692 653,554 2.100 3.037 2.450 < 3-19>, 2009 2020 (: ; 2009 ) 2009 2020 - - 1,171 1,148 23 4,726 4,633 93 242 179 62 975 725 251 156 231-74 632 931-299 ㆍ 169 203-34 681 820-138 254 168 86 1,025 677 348 148 186-38 598 751-153 202 181 21 814 730 85 < 3-19> 2009 2020. 2020 4,726, 4,633, 93., 975, 725, 251. 632, 931, 299. 681, 820 77
, 138. 1,025, 677, 348. 598, 751 153. 814, 730, 85., 2020.,,,,,,. < 3-20> 2020 ㆍ (: %; N=22) 0 - - - 13.6 2 - - - 27.3 5 - - - 22.7 7 - - 4.5-9 - - 4.5-10 - 4.5 18.2 18.2 15 4.5 0.0 13.6 4.5 18 - - - 4.5 20 9.1 36.4 13.6 4.5 21-4.5 - - 23-4.5 - - 24-4.5 4.5-25 9.1-13.6-27 - 4.5 - - 28 - - 4.5-30 9.1 13.6 9.1 4.5 35-4.5 - - 38 4.5 4.5 - - 40-9.1 4.5-45 13.6 - - - 50 31.8 9.1 9.1-60 4.5 - - - 62 4.5 - - - 65 4.5 - - - 68 4.5 - - - 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 27.6 22.2 7.3 15.4 10.6 12.4 7.7 78
4) < 3-20> 2020., 42.9, ㆍ 27.6, 22.2, 7.3., 50% 31.8%, ㆍ 20% 36.4%. 10% 18.2%. 15%, 20%, 25% 13.6%. 2% 27.3%, 5% 22.7%. < 3-21>, 2009 2020 (: ; 2009 ) 2009 2020 % % 511 100.0 2,063 100.0 318 62.2 884 42.9 ㆍ 120 23.5 570 27.6 61 11.9 458 22.2 12 2.3 151 7.3 < 3-21> 2009 2020. 2009 () 79
. 2009 511, 318, ㆍ 120, 61, 12. 2020 1., 2,063, 884, ㆍ 570, 458, 151. 80
제 4 장 결혼이민자수용의사회복지비용분석 : 현재와미래 81
4 :.,. 1. 1) 4 3,. 2 1 61, ( ), 30, ( ). 5 2. 31 (( ) ), ( 20-4 ). 2006. 1) 83
< 4-1>,, 2009 () (:, %) ( ) 8,249 1,300 493 953 1,526 3,705 272 () (100.0) (15.8) (6.0) (11.6) (18.5) (44.9) (3.3) 985 129 57 111 81 574 33 () (100.0) (13.1) (5.8) (11.3) (8.2) (58.3) (3.4) 7,264 1,171 436 842 1,445 3,131 239 () (100.0) (16.1) (6.0) (11.6) (19.9) (43.1) (3.3) 758 0 0 649 0 0 109 () (100.0) (0.0) (0.0) (85.6) (0.0) (0.0) (14.4) 1 19 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 () (100.0) (50.0) (50.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 20 29 129 3 10 0 31 84 1 () (100.0) (2.3) (7.8) (0.0) (24.0) (65.1) (0.8) 30 39 1,064 118 47 23 348 481 47 () (100.0) (6.0) (2.4) (1.2) (17.7) (24.5) (2.4) 40 49 3,218 637 172 131 901 1,284 93 () (100.0) (19.8) (5.3) (4.1) (28.0) (39.9) (2.9) 50 59 1,843 251 158 72 199 1,146 17 () (100.0) (13.6) (8.6) (3.9) (10.8) (62.2) (0.9) 60 1,235 290 105 78 47 710 5 () (100.0) (23.5) (8.5) (6.3) (3.8) (57.5) (0.4) 1 1,620 201 71 223 414 597 114 () (100.0) (12.4) (4.4) (13.8) (25.6) (36.9) (7.0) 1 2 1,216 152 61 203 255 485 60 () (100.0) (12.5) (5.0) (16.7) (21.0) (39.9) (4.9) 2 3 1,095 164 66 151 189 458 67 () (100.0) (15.0) (6.0) (13.8) (17.3) (41.8) (6.1) 3 4 929 167 55 125 130 440 12 () (100.0) (18.0) (5.9) (13.5) (14.0) (47.4) (1.3) 4 5 729 133 43 81 102 367 3 () (100.0) (18.2) (5.9) (11.1) (14.0) (50.3) (0.4) 5 2,660 483 197 170 436 1,358 16 () (100.0) (18.2) (7.4) (6.4) (16.4) (51.1) (0.6) :,, 2009. 1) 2009 24. 84
< 4-2>, 2009 () (:, %) ( ) 8,249 1,300 493 953 1,526 3,705 272 1,801 261 131 299 153 876 81 567 107 12 63 87 293 5 353 51 6 33 84 163 16 443 63 58 45 42 230 5 302 51 9 28 60 149 5 218 27 6 13 37 128 7 88 12 6 16 18 30 6 1,316 179 102 215 106 687 27 288 55 8 18 85 111 11 226 21 4 16 51 122 12 355 60 21 31 102 124 17 673 96 54 47 161 278 37 620 142 32 36 198 193 19 451 76 23 38 171 136 7 472 86 19 42 147 164 14 76 13 2 13 24 21 3 100.0 15.8 6.0 11.6 18.5 44.9 3.3 100.0 14.5 7.3 16.6 8.5 48.6 4.5 100.0 18.9 2.1 11.1 15.3 51.7 0.9 100.0 14.4 1.7 9.3 23.8 46.2 4.5 100.0 14.2 13.1 10.2 9.5 51.9 1.1 100.0 16.9 3.0 9.3 19.9 49.3 1.7 100.0 12.4 2.8 6.0 17.0 58.7 3.2 100.0 13.6 6.8 18.2 20.5 34.1 6.8 100.0 13.6 7.8 16.3 8.1 52.2 2.1 100.0 19.1 2.8 6.3 29.5 38.5 3.8 100.0 9.3 1.8 7.1 22.6 54.0 5.3 100.0 16.9 5.9 8.7 28.7 34.9 4.8 100.0 14.3 8.0 7.0 23.9 41.3 5.5 100.0 22.9 5.2 5.8 31.9 31.1 3.1 100.0 16.9 5.1 8.4 37.9 30.2 1.6 100.0 18.2 4.0 8.9 31.1 34.7 3.0 :,, 2009. 85
,.,,,. < 4-2>. 1801, 1316.,,,. 37.9%,, 30%. 58% 6.8%. < 4-3>. 4,051, 7,024 11,075. 2) 0.77% 20 1.07%., 6537, 4,538 1.06%, 0.55%, 20 1.59%, 0.72%. 2). 86
1.15% 20 1.56%.,,.. < 4-4>,,,,,. < 4-3> (A) 20 (B) (C) (C/A) (:, %) 20 (C/B) 1,444,010 1,038,677 4,051 7,024 11,075 0.77 1.07 617,015 410,834 354 6,183 6,537 1.06 1.59 826995 627843 3,697 841 4,538 0.55 0.72 193,260 142,167 794 1,421 2,215 1.15 1.56 131,778 96,795 262 499 761 0.58 0.79 94,220 64,399 184 304 488 0.52 0.76 66,523 46,153 155 393 548 0.82 1.19 58,288 37,072 144 269 413 0.71 1.11 43,621 29,012 84 198 282 0.65 0.97 17,701 12,470 52 66 118 0.67 0.95 197,112 141,270 527 1,074 1,601 0.81 1.13 61,716 45,129 169 259 428 0.69 0.95 52,306 38,088 100 198 298 0.57 0.78 69,237 50,684 210 307 517 0.75 1.02 109,630 77,711 341 589 930 0.85 1.20 109,062 80,766 395 565 960 0.88 1.19 117,897 88,698 292 406 698 0.59 0.79 100,559 74,445 289 416 705 0.70 0.95 21,100 13,818 53 60 113 0.54 0.82 : (2009), 2008. 87
() (:, %) ( ) 8,249 1,300 493 953 1,526 3,705 272 () 3,095 536 256 576 189 1,458 80 ( ) 1,954 217 136 171 93 1,306 31 1,212 63 26 21 606 440 56 884 366 51 77 217 146 27 382 31 2 8 200 99 42 76 7 0 3 23 41 2 124 14 1 5 47 51 6 18 4 0 12 1 1 0 25 6 1 0 8 7 3 6 0 0 1 2 3 0 31 5 0 4 4 18 0 320 23 9 15 127 131 15, 122 28 11 60 9 4 10 < 4-4>, 2009 100.00 15.76 5.98 11.55 18.50 44.91 3.29 () 100.00 17.32 8.27 18.61 6.11 47.11 2.58 ( ) 100.00 11.11 6.96 8.75 4.76 66.84 1.59 100.00 5.20 2.15 1.73 50.00 36.30 4.62 100.00 41.40 5.77 8.71 24.55 16.52 3.05 100.00 8.12 0.52 2.09 52.36 25.92 10.99 100.00 9.21 0.00 3.95 30.26 53.95 2.63 100.00 11.29 0.81 4.03 37.90 41.13 4.84 100.00 22.22 0.00 66.67 5.56 5.56 0.00 100.00 24.00 4.00 0.00 32.00 28.00 12.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 33.33 50.00 0.00 100.00 16.13 0.00 12.90 12.90 58.06 0.00 100.00 7.19 2.81 4.69 39.69 40.94 4.69, 100.00 22.95 9.02 49.18 7.38 3.28 8.20 :,, 2009. 88
41.4%, 50%. 66%. 10%. 2009 7 < 4-5>. < 4-5>. 3 2450, 22 8835. < 4-5>, 2009 7 1,064 324,503,470 1,057 322,114,920 6,487 2,288,353,065 6,524 2,301,090,662 :,, 2009. (: ) 2).,, 2009, 2010 2020. 89
< 4-6>, 2009 ( ) 0.0284 0.0095 0.0524 0.0028 0.0244 0.0716 (0.0244) 0.0327 0.0142 0.0252 0.0242 0.0501 0.0326 0.0619 0.0046 0.0371 0.0813 (0.0421) 0.0514 0.0289 0.0265 0.0420 : 2009. 2009 (A) < 4-7>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (B) B/A 1381 1454 1528 1601 1674 1747 1819 1891 1963 2035 2107 2178 1.58 512 563 613 663 714 764 814 864 913 963 1012 1062 2.07 281 316 351 386 420 455 490 524 559 593 627 661 2.35 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 1.33 746 765 785 804 823 843 862 881 901 920 265 958 1.28 687 731 774 818 861 905 948 991 1034 1078 1121 1164 1.69 69 82 95 108 121 134 147 160 172 185 198 211 3.06 72 81 89 98 106 115 123 132 140 149 157 165 2.29 35 39 44 48 52 56 61 65 69 74 78 82 2.34 265 308 351 395 438 481 523 566 609 651 694 736 2.78 4051 4342 4633 4923 5212 5501 5790 6078 6365 6651 6263 7222 1.78 2439 2569 2698 2827 2956 3085 3213 3340 3468 3595 3721 3847 1.58 1752 1925 2098 2270 2442 2613 2785 2955 3125 3295 3464 3633 2.07 332 373 414 456 497 538 579 619 660 701 741 782 2.36 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 1.20 1135 1164 1194 1223 1253 1282 1312 1341 1370 1400 1429 1458 1.28 780 830 879 928 978 1027 1076 1125 1175 1224 1273 1321 1.69 119 141 164 186 208 231 253 275 297 320 342 364 3.06 113 126 140 153 166 180 193 207 220 233 246 260 2.30 71 80 88 97 106 114 123 132 140 149 158 166 2.34 278 323 369 414 459 504 549 594 639 683 728 772 2.78 7024 7537 8049 8560 9070 9579 10088 10594 11100 11605 12108 12610 1.80 :. :,, 2009. 90
< 4-7> < 4-4>. < 4-6>. 2.4%, 4.2%... < 4-7>. 2020 2009 2.1 80%..,,, 3.. < 4-8> 2009, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 325 348 371 394 418 441 464 487 510 533 556 579 322 345 368 391 414 437 460 483 506 529 552 574 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2288 2455 2622 2789 2955 3121 3286 3452 3616 3781 3945 4108 2301 2469 2637 2804 2971 3138 3305 3471 3636 3802 3967 4131 100.0 107.2 114.4 121.5 128.7 135.8 142.9 150.0 157.1 164.2 171.2 178.3 100.0 107.3 114.6 121.9 129.1 136.4 143.6 150.8 158.0 165.2 172.4 179.5 : 2009. < 4-4> 2009 7., < 4-8> 2009 91
80%. 2009 3 2450 2020, 5 7900. 69 5. 2009 22 8800 2020 41 3100. 495. 3) 2 1.8.... 2. 1) 2009 4 23103 39.05%. 0 7.1% 1 39.0%, 2 67.8%, 3 65.6%, 4 58.5%, 5 47.0%( 4-9 ). < 4-10>. 58.9%, 16.0%, 13.5%, 11.1%. 92
< 4-9> (:, %) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 23,103 1,327 5,091 6,051 4,638 3,597 2,399 561 23,664 (39.05) (7.05) (38.98) (67.75) (65.55) (58.48) (46.97) 12,013 692 2,656 3,164 2,405 1,873 1,223 276 12,289 (39.57) (7.18) (39.45) (68.68) (66.62) (59.31) (46.84) 11,090 635 2,435 2,887 2,233 1,724 1,176 285 11,375 (38.51) (6.91) (38.49) (66.77) (64.44) (57.6) (47.1) : ( ). : (2009. 4) e-. < 4-10> (:, %) 0 1,327 40 95 517 2 672 1 1 5,091 409 619 2,483 0 1,558 22 2 6,051 661 794 3,403 2 1,171 20 3 4,638 580 679 3,099 0 255 25 4 3,597 539 546 2,421 0 75 16 5 2,399 359 379 1,616 1 39 5 23,103 2,588 3,112 13,539 5 3,770 89 6 561 48 87 403 0 23 0 23,664 2,636 3,199 13,942 5 3,793 89 () (100.0) (11.1) (13.5) (58.9) - (16.0) (0.4) : (2009. 4) e-. < 4-11>.,. 48%,,, 45%. < 4-12>. 50%, 37.1%. 93
< 4-11> (:, %) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2,3103 (39.05) 1,327 (7.05) 5,091 (38.98) 6,051 (67.75) 4,638 (65.55) 3,597 (58.48) 2,399 (46.97) 561 23,664 3,001 (37.49) 163 (7.27) 540 (32.22) 728 (61.9) 640 (59.31) 540 (54.77) 390 (46.15) 132 3,133 1,104 (38.16) 70 (7.1) 252 (38.53) 284 (69.78) 218 (69.21) 173 (55.99) 107 (48.2) 44 1,148 808 (37.79) 52 (7.02) 178 (35.74) 223 (69.69) 161 (73.18) 114 (61.96) 80 (45.71) 23 831 1,189 (35.44) 48 (5.38) 175 (25.29) 313 (58.5) 285 (59.75) 224 (54.5) 144 (41.38) 32 1,221 688 (45.59) 52 (10.83) 167 (47.44) 163 (71.18) 115 (72.33) 112 (67.47) 79 (64.23) 11 699 494 (40.03) 31 (8.01) 112 (39.72) 171 (80.66) 95 (60.9) 48 (45.28) 37 (40.66) 7 501 348 (32.37) 14 (3.54) 77 (32.08) 113 (70.63) 86 (66.67) 38 (43.18) 20 (31.75) 5 353 4,761 (35.99) 246 (6.3) 931 (33.31) 1213 (58.83) 992 (58.87) 829 (55.05) 550 (43.17) 73 4,834 838 (41.04) 15 (2.57) 159 (35.97) 212 (67.3) 190 (73.36) 168 (64.37) 94 (51.65) 9 847 913 (39.66) 41 (5.18) 175 (37.0) 273 (73.39) 187 (70.04) 146 (62.93) 91 (54.49) 12 925 1,758 (45.94) 92 (7.34) 410 (49.64) 463 (76.28) 371 (77.29) 255 (69.67) 167 (56.61) 19 1,777 1,522 (45.46) 110 (9.78) 374 (51.59) 367 (75.51) 286 (73.15) 234 (68.42) 151 (54.12) 57 1,579 1,877 (43.61) 131 (8.93) 427 (46.01) 466 (76.52) 362 (73.73) 262 (64.37) 229 (56.97) 39 1,916 1,511 (36.88) 92 (6.37) 378 (38.61) 449 (70.49) 286 (67.29) 192 (58.18) 114 (40.57) 58 1,569 1,927 (38.13) 144 (7.76) 633 (47.17) 521 (74.86) 297 (64.29) 208 (53.75) 124 (39.74) 38 1,965 364 (48.73) 26 (9.12) 103 (66.45) 92 (85.19) 67 (83.75) 54 (77.14) 22 (44.9) 2 366 : (2009. 4) e-. 94
< 4-12> (:, %) 0 5 0 6 20,012 (40.93) 20,271 () 5,774 (42.67) 5,873 ( ) 2,917 (44.05) 2,963 5,657 (37.17) 5,675 2,371 (51.30) 2,410 853 (41.67) 882 415 (44.72) 417 392 (52.62) 399 29 (47.54) 29 97 (45.97) 100 81 (27.46) 82 130 (41.01) 130 1,296 (30.23) 1,311 : () : (2009. 4) e-. 2) 2009 4 19,626 33.2%. 90%. 0 6.7% 1 34.9%, 2 60.4%, 3 51%, 4 46.7%, 5 38.8%. ( 4-13). < 4-13> (:, %) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 19,626 (33.18) 10,173 (33.51) 9,453 (32.82) 1,237 (6.57) 649 (6.73) 588 (6.39) 4,559 (34.91) 2,358 (35.02) 2,201 (34.79) 5,391 (60.36) 2,830 (61.43) 2,561 (59.23) : (2009. 4) e-. 3,608 (51) 1,866 (51.69) 1,742 (50.27) 2,871 (46.68) 1,484 (46.99) 1,387 (46.34) 1,960 (38.37) 986 (37.76) 974 (39.01) 419 20,045 200 10,373 219 9,672 95
< 4-14> (:, %) ㆍ 0 1,237 30 66 485 2 654 0 1 4,559 293 448 2,292 0 1,515 11 2 5,391 436 578 3,211 2 1,150 14 3 3,608 444 515 2,419 0 219 11 4 2,871 407 440 1,953 0 63 8 5 1,960 275 302 1,350 1 30 2 19,626 1,885 2,349 11,710 5 3,631 46 6 419 31 70 303 0 15 0 20,045 1,916 2,419 12,013 5 3,646 46 () (100.0) (9.6) (12.1) (59.9) (0.02) (18.2) (0.2) : (2009. 4) e-. < 4-15> ( ) 1 2 3 4 5 5 (: ) 0 1,237 287 118 370 196 160 84 21 0 1 1 4,559 789 368 1,418 858 713 368 28 0 17 2 5,391 851 357 1,662 1,013 914 540 25 0 29 3 3,608 0 313 1,361 766 690 430 11 0 37 4 2,871 0 294 1,069 582 542 294 3 43 44 5 1,960 0 2 2 2 0 1 0 1,923 30 19,626 1,927 1,452 5,882 3,417 3,019 1,717 88 1,966 158 6 419 0 143 216 0 0 0 0 4 56 20,045 1,927 1,595 6,098 3,417 3,019 1,717 88 1,970 214 : 6. : (2009. 4) e-. < 4-14>. 59.9%, 18.2%, 12.1%, 9.6%. < 4-15>. 2, 3, 4. 96
< 4-16> (:, %) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 19,626 (33.18) 1,237 (6.57) 4,559 (34.91) 5,391 (60.36) 2,577 154 494 664 (32.2) (6.87) (29.47) (56.46) 1,021 68 245 272 (35.29) (6.9) (37.46) (66.83) 755 50 173 213 (35.31) (6.75) (34.74) (66.56) 1,042 46 164 295 (31.06) (5.16) (23.7) (55.14) 645 50 154 156 (42.74) (10.42) (43.75) (68.12) 460 29 108 161 (37.28) (7.49) (38.3) (75.94) 303 13 72 108 (28.19) (3.29) (30) (67.5) 4,020 235 865 1123 (30.39) (6.02) (30.95) (54.46) 629 13 131 164 (30.8) (2.23) (29.64) (52.06) 777 40 152 244 (33.75) (5.06) (32.14) (65.59) 1,286 81 333 369 (33.6) (6.46) (40.31) (60.79) 1,304 104 325 317 (38.95) (9.24) (44.83) (65.23) 1,624 114 368 411 (37.73) (7.77) (39.66) (67.49) 1,220 85 318 358 (29.78) (5.88) (32.48) (56.2) 1,676 135 577 462 (33.16) (7.28) (43) (66.38) 287 20 80 74 (38.42) (7.02) (51.61) (68.52) : 6. : (2009. 4) e-. 3,608 (51)) 507 (46.99) 191 (60.63) 141 (64.09) 226 (47.38) 105 (66.04) 81 (51.92) 62 (48.06) 745 (44.21) 135 (52.12) 147 (55.06) 224 (46.67) 235 (60.1) 300 (61.1) 218 (51.29) 240 (51.95) 51 (63.75) 2,871 (46.68) 442 (44.83) 148 (47.9) 105 (57.07) 184 (44.77) 103 (62.05) 46 (43.4) 31 (35.23) 625 (41.5) 119 (45.59) 121 (52.16) 174 (47.54) 190 (55.56) 227 (55.77) 145 (43.94) 167 (43.15) 44 (62.86) 1,960 (38.37) 316 (37.4) 97 (43.69) 73 (41.71) 127 (36.49) 77 (62.6) 35 (38.46) 17 (26.98) 427 (33.52) 67 (36.81) 73 (43.71) 105 (35.59) 133 (47.67) 204 (50.75) 96 (34.16) 95 (30.45) 18 (36.73) 419 20,04 5 87 2,664 34 1,055 18 773 23 1,065 7 652 6 466 4 307 45 4,065 7 636 9 786 16 1,302 46 1,350 36 1,660 46 1,266 34 1,710 1 288 < 4-16>. 33%. 28%, 30 31%. 42.7%, 97
37 38%. < 4-17>. 45%, 31.5%. 2009 4 50 2280 ( 4-18). < 4-17> (:, %) 0 5 0 6 17,025 (34.82%) 17,223 4,939 (36.50%) 5,011 ( ) 2,482 (37.48%) 2,516 4,793 (31.49%) 4,807 2,071 (44.81%) 2,103 710 (34.68%) 735 363 (39.12%) 364 342 (45.91%) 349 24 (39.34%) 24 89 (42.18%) 91 51 (17.29%) 52 110 (34.70%) 110 1,051 (24.52%) 1,061 : ( 5 ). : (2009. 4) e-. < 4-18> 2009 4 20,045 502,280 19,626 497,622 5 : 6. : (2009. 4) e-. (:, %) 98
3).. 2009 0 5 2009 4 ( 4-15 ) ( 4-19 ), 0 5 2010 2020. < 4-19>, 2009 1 3 4 5 5 0 0.0215 0.0514 0.0120 0.0063 0.0016 0.0000 0.0001 0.0929 1 0.0509 0.1706 0.0460 0.0237 0.0018 0.0000 0.0011 0.2941 2 0.0701 0.2496 0.0752 0.0445 0.0021 0.0000 0.0024 0.4438 3 0.0000 0.2872 0.0812 0.0506 0.0013 0.0000 0.0044 0.4247 4 0.0000 0.2820 0.0786 0.0426 0.0004 0.0062 0.0064 0.4163 5 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.3329 0.0052 0.3393 0.1425 1.0418 0.2931 0.1679 0.0072 0.3391 0.0195 2.0111 :.,,, 5, 0.1. 2009. 2009 7, 2009 4. 4 7. 2009 7 1, 2 99
, 3 80%, 4 60%, 5 30%, 2009 7 1, 2, 3 4 5 60% 5 30%. 4 60%, 4 40% 5 60% 60%, 5 40% 20% 30%,..,,.. < 4-20>,, 5, < 4-21> 2009. < 4-20>, 2009 2020 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 436 552 593 632 668 701 732 760 783 804 825 845 1 1320 1109 1403 1507 1605 1697 1783 1861 1930 1989 2044 2098 2 1246 1555 1306 1652 1775 1890 1998 2099 2192 2273 2342 2408 3 1342 1876 2340 1966 2487 2672 2845 3008 3160 3300 3422 3526 4 461 556 777 969 814 1030 1107 1178 1246 1309 1366 1417 5 343 401 482 675 841 707 894 961 1023 1082 1137 1187 5150 6048 6901 7400 8190 8697 9360 9868 10335 10757 11137 11481 : 1) 2009, 2000. 2). 100
< 4-21> 2009, 2009 2020 (: %) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 100.0 126.5 135.9 144.7 153.0 160.8 167.9 174.1 179.4 184.4 189.2 193.8 1 100.0 84.0 106.2 114.2 121.6 128.5 135.0 141.0 146.2 150.6 154.8 158.9 2 100.0 124.7 104.8 132.5 142.4 151.7 160.3 168.4 175.9 182.4 187.9 193.2 3 100.0 139.8 174.4 146.5 185.3 199.1 212.0 224.2 235.5 245.9 255.0 262.8 4 100.0 120.4 168.4 210.0 176.4 223.2 239.8 255.4 270.0 283.6 296.2 307.1 5 100.0 116.7 140.5 196.5 245.1 205.8 260.5 279.9 298.0 315.1 331.0 345.6 100.0 117.4 134.0 143.7 159.0 168.9 181.8 191.6 200.7 208.9 216.3 222.9 4 2009 51 5 2015 2009 1.8 93 6 2020 2.2 114 8100. 2009 618 2020 1377 7200.. 4),,. 0 5 2 3 40%,. 101
..,. 2009 51 2020 2.2.,. 102
제 5 장 결혼이민자유입과사회통합정책의방향 103
5 1. ㆍ ㆍ (Chiswick, 2005).. ㆍ ( 同化 ),, (Zhou, 2004; Seol, 2006). ㆍ,. 1) (assimilation perspectives).,. 1,...,,, (Park, 1950; Gordon, 1964, 1978; Alba and Nee, 1997).,,,,,., 20 105
.,., (Warner and Srole, 1945; Alba, 1985). (Hirschman and Falcon, 1985) 25 -,. 1 (Waldinger and Bozorgmehr, 1996).,, 2,, (Portes and Stepick, 1993; Portes and Rumbaut, 2001; Rumbaut and Portes, 2001).. 2), (human capital theory),,., ㆍ,.. 106
,,.. (Landry, 1987), 20 ㆍ,, (ghetto). (Chiswick, 1979). (Borjas, 1990) (selectivity of immigration) 1. (Hirschman and Wong, 1986). 3), (discounted) ㆍ., (Model, 1991). (structural factors). ㆍ, 1), (Massey and 1), (Chiswick 1978). ㆍ (transferable education), (marketable skills),,,. 107
Denton, 1987; Portes, 1995a; Portes and Rumbaut, 1996)., (structural perspective) (framework). (labor market segmentation theories)..,,.,,.,,,,,,.., ㆍ ㆍ, ㆍ ㆍㆍ. (split labor market theory) (ethnic enclave theory) (Seol, 2006)., ㆍ 2 (Bonacich, 1972),,, (Wilson and Portes, 1980)..., 108
.. (Waldinger, 1996a) (vacant niches). (Waldinger, 1996b)., (informal social network).,. (segmented assimilation theory) (Portes and Zhou, 1993; Rumbaut, 1994; Portes, 1995b; Zhou, 1997; Portes and Rumbaut, 2001; Rumbaut and Portes, 2001). 2. 2, (rainbow underclass). 2,. 2), (eventual assimilation and interethnic accommodation).,,, ㆍ (ethnic 2) 1 2, -. 2 1,., 2,. 109
hierarchies) (Portes and Böröcz, 1989)., (benefits)??. (effects of structural constraints).,. 4) ㆍ,,,. < 5-1> ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ,. ㆍ,,,. ㆍ ㆍ. ㆍ,, ㆍ,,, ㆍ,,, < 5-1>,,.,,,,..,,,. ㆍ 110
.,,,, ㆍ,,,.. 2. ㆍ,, (Castles and Miller, 2009; Castles, 2007; Seol, 2005). [ 5-1].,,. (Gordon, 1978). (absorption assimilation). (melting pot assimilation) (cultural blending).., (International Organization for Migration, 2004: Section 3.6),,,. (Castles and Miller, 2003) (Gordon, 1978) ( ㆍ, 2008). 111
( ) ㆍ ( ) [ 5-1],.,. ㆍ.. 3),,., (tolérance, 寬容 ) (laïcité, 政敎分離原則 ) 3), (Waters and Jiménez, 2005). 112
. 4)..,. ㆍ..,.. (interculturalism).., (multiculturalism), ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ.,.,.,..,.?.,. ㆍ,. 4).,,. 113
: Portes (2009: 18). ㆍ ㆍ, ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ [ 5-2] ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ ㆍ.,.. ().,.,..., [ 5-2],,,. 5) 114
.,.,.... ㆍ ㆍ.,.,. ( 易地思之 )..,.,, ( 茶道 )., ㆍㆍ....,,. 5). 115
,.,,, ㆍ. ㆍ ㆍㆍㆍ., ㆍ,,,, ㆍ,.,..,.. 116
제 6 장 다문화가족지원정책의전망과대책 117
6 1. 2020. (trend),,. 10 (aging society), (aged society). 1) ( ),.,,.....,,.. 1955 1963.,... 1) 65 7% (aging society), 14% (aged society), 20% (hyper-aged society). UN (, 2009: 34). 119
. (Attali, 2005).,,,. ( 非婚 ), ( 同性 ),,,.., 10..,. -.. -,.,. 2009 70 16.,...., 2009 2020 2.10, 3.04, 2.45. 2020 ㆍ 2009 1,106,884 2.45 2,711,866, 49,325,689 5.5%. 120
.., 2018,. OECD 2007, 2).,. < 6-1> ㆍ, 2009 2020 2009 2020 49,593,665 49,325,689 ㆍ 1,106,884 2,711,866 2.2 5.5 :, 2009, 2009.,, 2006. (:, %) < 6-2> OECD, 2007 % % % (: %) 36.2 13.4 6.8 25.0 13.0 6.2 24.9 12.9 6.1 21.6 10.7 3.8 20.1 10.3 3.8 15.7 10.2 2.5 14.2 9.5 1.9 13.6 8.5 1.6 13.4 6.9 0.4 : OECD, Stocks of foreign-born population in selected OECD countries, 2009. http://www. oecd.org/dataoecd/39/35/43185405.xls. 2).,. 121
(A+B +C+D+E+F) (A+B+C) (A+B+C+D) (A+B+C+D+E) < 6-3> ㆍ, 2004 2008 (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (: ) (A+B+C+G) 2004 707,195 610,625 636,159 642,463 468,875 22,534 119,216 25,534 6,304 64,732 139,940 750,873 2005 703,459 606,882 638,720 646,407 485,144 25,365 96,373 31,838 7,687 57,052 140,252 747,467 2006 869,388 764,442 803,967 813,673 631,219 29,388 103,835 39,525 9,706 55,715 144,436 910,149 2007 1,035,185 914,557 968,608 980,862 765,746 34,516 114,295 54,051 12,254 54,323 152,033 1,066,273 2008 1,136,488 1,001,950 1,067,461 1,082,524 854,007 41,457 106,486 65,511 15,063 53,964 156,916 1,158,866 : 1)., 2004 2005 2006. 2). 3) 9 30, (2009). 4) ㆍ. :, ㆍ, ;,, ;,, ; (2009). 122
ㆍ.,..,, 4. < 6-3>,, ㆍ., 2020 5.5%.,.. 2.,,. 2008, ㆍ. [ 6-1]. :.,,,,. 123
,,. [ 6-1] 2.45 2020.. < 3-9>,,,,,,,, 124
.,..,,. : (2008: 13). [ 6-2] 125