Valuation (DCF Multiple ) Valuation (DCF Multiple ) I Valuation 1 Valuation 2 valuation II VBM Valuation 1 VBM 2 M&A III 1 2 IV 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) 2 ( 2 ) 3 (DCF 3 ) 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) 7 ( 5 ) V 1 2 Multiple VI Case Study 1 ( H) 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) 2 ( 2 ) 3 (DCF 3 ) 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) 7 ( 5 ) VII Case Study 2 ( K) 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) 2 ( 2 ) 3 (DCF 3 ) 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) 7 ( 5 ) 1
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) VIII Case Study 3 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) 2 ( 2 ) 3 (DCF 3 ) 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) 7 ( 5 ) IX Case Study 4 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) 2 ( 2 ) 3 (DCF 3 ) 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) 7 ( 5 ) X 1 DCF 2 Multiple 3 EBITDA Multiple 4 ROIC < > 1 Valuation Copeland, 2 Investment Valuation Damodaran 3 Security Analysis - Graham 4 - Graham 5 ( ) 2
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) I Valuation 1 Valuation,,, Valuation M&A, Valuation, DCF Multiple EVA(EP) (EPS) PER, 2 Valuation 3
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) II VBM M&A Valuation 1 VBM (Social Cost),,,, =, (management) ( : Value) (Based) (VBM: Value Based Management) 2 M&A M&A (1) Seller 1 : Valuation Seller,,, Buyer, Seller Valuation 2 : 1, 30%,, Buyer Buyer Seller 3 : Buyer Buyer, (2) Buyer 1 :, 1 Valuation 2 : LOI (Buyer Seller) 1 3 : (Non-Binding) MOU 4
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 4 : Preliminary Due Diligence(Data Room DD) Valuation 5 : M&A 6 : Detail Due Diligence 7 : M&A 8 : M&A Due Diligence Due Diligence, 3 (1) PV(EPS, k) ( ) (2) PER EPS * PER (, )PER,,, 5
Valuation Summary Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (OV, TIC) (IBD) (Equity Value) (NOA),,,, ( + ) = = ( + ) M&A valuation, = +,,, DCF Multiple EVA 1 DCF(Discounted Cash Flow, ) : PV ( FCFn 1, WACC 2 ) 2 Multiple (, ) EBITDA 3 * OV/EBITDA 4 EV/EBITDA 3 MVA (Market Value Added; ) : EVA ( (IC),Excess Profit) MVA (IC) MVA + IC = PV(EVAn, WACC) + IC = PV(NOPLATn - IC (n-1) *WACC, WACC) + IC = PV(EBITn*(1-t) - IC (n-1) *WACC, WACC) + IC 1 FCFn ; Free Cash Flow( ) = + ( ) + ( ) = NOPLAT + IC 2 WACC ; Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (hurdle rate) 3 EBITDA ; EBIT( ) + D( ) + A( ),,,, 4 OV/EBITDA ;, Multiple (Comparable companies), (= + ) EBITDA, Multiple 6
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) III 1 (1) ( ) = * (2) =,, (3) = + + = +, +, +,,, ( ), II IV = 7
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (TIC : Total Invested Capital) = Operating Value = Value of Operations = Operating Invested Capital = = Invested capital (NOA : Non-Operating Asset), (IBD : Interest Bearing Debt), (EV : Equity Value) (FV : Firm Value) TIC + NOA = IBD + EV + = +, EV = TIC + NOA - IBD = + - ( ) (Target Company), DCF Multiple DCF (Free Cash Flow) (WACC) (PV), Multiple (Index) (Comparable Companies) (Multiple) DCF Multiple, Multiple DCF, 8
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (3) : DCF DCF(Discounted Cah-Flow) (Free Cash Flow) (Present Value) (Value of Operations), TIC, Value of Operations = PV(FCFn, WACC) (TIC) = (FCFn) (WACC) (4) : Multiple DCF Multiple Multiple, PER, PSR, PBR Equity Multiple EV/EBITDA, TIC/EBITDA Enterprise Multiple (Target Company) (Comparable Companies) (Market) Multiple, Target Company Projection Comparable Companies, Market, Historical Record Index Equity Multiple Target Company Price Earnings Sales, Book X PER, PSR, PBR = Price Index Enterprise Multiple Target Company Value X = EBITDA EV/EBITDA, TIC/EBITDA EV, TIC TIC = EBITDA * Market Multiple (TIC) = EBITDA * TIC/EBITDA Multiple (5) : EVA EP 5 : Economic Profit EVA EP Model EP EVA, EP = IC * (ROIC - WACC), EP ROIC WACC IC EP ROIC EP EVA, EP = NOPLAT (IC*WACC) IC EP ( ) = IC + MVA( EP ) = IC + PV(EVAn, WACC) 5 EP EE(Excess Earnings, ), EP Excess Profit ( ) 9
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) WACC FCF IC, IC (ROIC) WACC IC EP DCF EP DCF = {NOPLAT 1 -(IC 1 -IC 0 )}/(1+WACC) 1 + {NOPLAT 2 -(IC 2 -IC 1 )}/(1+WACC) 2 + + {NOPLAT n -(IC n -IC n-1 )}/(1+WACC) n + EP = IC 0 + EP 1 /(1+WACC) 1 + EP 2 /(1+WACC) 2 + + EP n /(1+WACC) n + = IC 0 + {NOPLAT 1 - IC 0 *WACC}/(1+WACC) 1 + {NOPLAT 2 IC 1 *WACC}/(1+WACC) 2 + + {NOPLAT n IC n-1 *WACC}/(1+WACC) n + EP IC 0 EP 1, IC 0 + {NOPLAT 1 - IC 0 *WACC}/(1+WACC) 1 = { NOPLAT 1 - IC 0 *WACC+ IC 0 *(1+WACC) 1 }/(1+WACC) 1 = { NOPLAT 1 + IC 0 }/(1+WACC) 1 ( IC 0 ) = { NOPLAT 1 + IC 0 - IC 1 + IC 1 }/(1+WACC) 1 = { NOPLAT 1 + IC 0 - IC 1 }/(1+WACC) 1 + IC 1 /(1+WACC) 1 = {NOPLAT 1 -(IC 1 -IC 0 )}/(1+WACC) 1 + IC 1 /(1+WACC) 1, EP = {NOPLAT 1 -(IC 1 -IC 0 )}/(1+WACC) 1 + {NOPLAT 2 -(IC 2 -IC 1 )}/(1+WACC) 2 + + {NOPLAT n -(IC n -IC n-1 )}/(1+WACC) n + IC n /(1+WACC) n + DCF 10
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 3 (1) TIC : Total Invested Capital = OV, OA : Operating Value = Operating Invested Capital, Invested Capital (2) IC 6 (Invested Capital:, ),, DCF NOPLAT + Free Cash Flow TIC( ) Multiple EBITDA Index multiple IC(Invested Capital), IC, (+), (-), (quasi-equity account),,, IC IC 10,000 10,000 ( ), ( ) IC, = max(, ), IC, 5,,, (, ) IC, IC, M&A (Operating current assets) (-) (Non-interest bearing current liabilities) (Net working capital) (+) (Net property plant and equipment) (+) - (Other operating assets, net of other liabilities) IC (Invested Capital) 6, 11
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (3) NOA : Non Operating Asset, (excess cash) (,,, ) (Excess Cash),, 05~20% NOPLAT, NOA,, = ( ) ( ) ( ), = max(, ) WACC,, WACC WACC,, (ROIC) WACC,, 12
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (4) FV : Firm Value, Full Value = TIC + NOA EV : Enterprise Value = + = + { ( + + )}, FV EV,,, EV FV,,, TIC( ) FV -,, = Enterprise Value Enterprise Value = TIC( ), Enterprise Value, Enterprise Value TIC( ) (5) IBD : Interest Bearing Debt, (6) EV : Equity Value, +, (7) FCF : Free Cash Flow, FCF, FCF = NOLAT = FCF = + - + + + FCF FCF Free Cash Flow (,%) 199012 199112 199212 199312 199412 199512 199612 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 2002 03 1,583,949 5,885,232 15,456,785 20,252,810 32,131,689 38,249,223 47,032,515 56,899,831 26,994,717 20,947,224 36,365,255 38,905,613 10,364,495 796,220 1,084,812 822,047 1,199,483 899,084 992,568 3,195,982 58,986,249 23,480,410 41,775,734 16,358,421 29,125,415 2,065,676 EBIT 787,729 4,800,420 14,634,738 19,053,327 31,232,605 37,256,655 43,836,533-2,086,418 3,514,307-20,828,510 20,006,834 9,780,198 8,298,819 606,346 424,854 2,055,864 1,932,695 4,148,693 5,009,034 4,616,870 0 0 0 0 0 0 ( ) 2188 1435 2788 1943 2398 2579 2334 000 000 000 000 000 000 828,798 1,548,708 4,914,456 3,699,468 5,550,710 8,268,334 9,096,044 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,264,890 1,275,339 2,890,453 1,913,241 2,234,177 3,676,366 3,464,057 0 0 0 0 0 0 170,254 698,223 4,079,867 3,718,923 7,465,227 9,601,003 10,248,857 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NOPLAT 617,475 4,102,197 10,554,871 15,334,404 23,767,378 27,655,652 33,587,676-2,086,418 3,514,307-20,828,510 20,006,834 9,780,198 8,298,819 828,905 1,361,169 1,766,240 2,080,359 2,540,376 3,011,096 5,983,354 5,017,446 5,434,200 7,254,078 6,397,439 4,651,239 992,780 796,220 1,084,812 822,047 1,199,483 899,084 992,568 3,195,982 58,986,249 23,480,410 41,775,734 16,358,421 29,125,415 2,065,676 2,242,600 6,548,178 13,143,158 18,614,246 27,206,838 31,659,316 42,767,012 61,917,277 32,428,917 28,201,302 42,762,694 43,556,852 11,357,275 7,155,448 12,960,648 35,250,157 17,878,692 24,292,968 30,263,175 14,687,914 104,150,804 62,412,864-138,901,034 20,413,791 23,300,396 985,586 3,341,567 2,269,731 2,610,527 4,304,404 10,094,822 38,073,983 5,084,813 5,393,748 157,042,244-9,729,269-300,067 653,546 603,692 107,826-127,028 227,741 49,061 486,994 1,325,758-1,971,830 323,651-446,475-593,448 204,687-72,639-308,572 511,220-466,954-396,025-72,937 3,818,174-2,519,279-1,475,626 0 0 0 16,833,268 37,319,142 20,873,411 28,358,159 40,011,033 53,175,954 114,379,549 63,315,503 16,989,235 10,238,047 22,406,881 1,843,819 Free Cash Flow -10,285,090-24,175,984-2,259,165-1,151,321-8,351,717-10,408,942-52,462,272-30,886,586 11,212,067 32,524,647 21,149,971 9,513,456 4,814,493 8,725,278 8,604,418 8,448,487 8,979,216 12,042,776 14,097,554 43,209,321 37,153,229 17,552,539 27,760,686 37,384,765 3,356,941 298,107 1,113,900 1,128,910 512,830 1,897,286 1,463,465 2,717,989 31,502,962 68,774,354 17,695,355 11,204,943 15,993,273 2,501,289 0 86,051 2,339 150,040 33,895 5,872 113,535 28,261 8,706 127,313,544 4,201,776 1,076,733 0 9,568 21,168 5,553 59,258 137,878 33,154 33,306 0 393,857,207 456,349,489 2,326,920 50 0 4,506,817-2,608,829-16,703,690 5,767,275 5,826,626 2,200,312 1,050,852-40,727,652-456,356,212-317,966,694 50,955,246 43,618,146 10,369,108 13
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) ) A 1, 1 (FCF) < > ( : ) 1 100 130 +30 100 120 +20 100 120 +20 100 80-20 400 450 +50 100 130 +30 100 80-20 50 60 +10 250 270 +20 100 100 0 50 80 +30 150 180 +30 < > ( : ) 1 150 90 : 5 : 5 60 19 : 6, : 7 41 3 38 8 : 21% ( ) 30 : 34, : 3, : 2 * (1- ) NOPLAT 3239 41 * (1-021) = 3239 ( ) (20) ( ) (20), (34) 3 11 ( ) 30 ( ) 10, 12 (2) 3239 14
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) < > IC IBD NOA, (Cash Flow) = - IC - NOA( ) + IBD + + (, ) * (1-t) ( = NOPLAT * (1-t) * (1-t) ) - IC - NOA( ) + IBD + ( ),,,,,,,, (FCF),, ( ) IC, ( ~ ) IC (8) EBIT : Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (9) EBITDA : Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization + + 15
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (10) Multiple PER, PSR, PBR Equity Multiple EV/EBITDA, TIC/EBITDA Enterprise Multiple Multiple (11) NOPLAT : Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes NOPLAT NOPLAT, NOPLAT NOPLAT = EBIT * (1-t) NOPLAT EBIT EBIT NOPLAT NOPLAT NOPLAT, (+) (-) = NOPLAT EBIT NOPLAT EBIT EBIT, M&A EBIT IC EBIT,,,, 16
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (12) WACC : Weighted Average Cost of Capital ( ) WACC B WACC = k (1 t) + k V P V b p + E ke V k b k p k e = = = WACC, WACC DCF = PV(FCFn, WACC) Multiple = EBITDA * EBITDA Multiple, PV(FCFn, WACC) = EBITDA * EBITDA Multiple FCF, 1/WACC EBITDA Multiple 6 ~ 65, FCF = NOPLAT + +,, EBITDA FCF, EBITDA * 07 = FCF = FCF / WACC = EBITDA * EBITDA Multiple = (FCF / 07 )* EBITDA Multiple,, FCF = EBITDA, EBITDA Multiple 6 ~ 65, WACC = 07/ (6~65) = 108% ~ 117%,, 1538% ~ 167% WACC 10~12% 1538% ~ 167% WACC, WACC [Operating Leverage] (13) CV : Continuing Value, DCF,,, (explicit forecasting period), CV 17
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (14) ROIC : Return On Invested capital = NOPLAT / IC (n-1) IC ROIC IC NOPLAT NOPLAT IC ROIC ROIC ROE ROIA ROE, ROA,, ROIC ROIC tree ROIC ROIC ROIC ROIC = NOPLAT / IC NOPLAT EBIT (1-tax rate) ROIC = EBIT (1-tax rate) / IC EBIT IC ROIC = EBIT (1-tax rate) / IC = (EBIT/ Sales) Sales / IC) (1-tax rate), ROIC (EBIT/Sales: ) IC (Sales / IC) IC / 1- + + + 1 1- + 18
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) [ ] 96 8 2 290 220 30%, 18% 3, 2001 82%, 28% 80% 1990 ROIC 30% ROIC ROIC WACC,,,,,,, ROIC, ( ROIC ), 19
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (15) t 1 15%, 1 27% 1 13%, 1 25%, -,, 2001 2003 2001 2002 2003 2942% 2850% 2812% 243% -064% -401% 4278% 5965% 5114%, 5% 15%, 20
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) < 1 FCF > A 1, 1 (FCF)?, 200,? < > ( : ) 1 100 130 100 120 100 120 100 100 400 470 100 130 100 102 50 60 250 292 100 100 100 50 78 150 178 < > ( : ) 1 200 120 : 5 : 5 80 30 : 6, : 7 50-10 40 12 : 30% (, ) 28 : 34, : 3, : 2 * (1- ) NOPLAT ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ), 21
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) IV DCF Multiple NOA IBD 1 F/S, NOA,IBD 2 (EBIT) (,, ) 3 FCF 3 EBITDA Projection Projection ( ) = + 4 WACC 4 Multiple CAPM TIC/EBITDA Multiple 5 =Operating Value of Projection Period (+) Continuing Value 5 =EBITDA * Multiple 6 NOA, IBD 6 NOA, IBD + = (FV) + = (FV) - = (Equity Value) - = (Equity Value) 7 Equity Value 7 Equity Value - = - = = (EVPS) = (EVPS) 22
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) (1) : IC ROIC : NOA : IBD : :,,,, (2) NOA, IBD, 99%, 100% :,,,,, :, 23
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 2 ( 2 ) 24
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 3 (FCF) (DCF 3 ) Free Cash Flow ( ) 200212 (Latest) 200312 Description 142,897,691 183,955,203 40,179,457 10 - - EBIT 102,718,234 183,955,193 26,317,068 59,271,827 ( ) 337 308 2,333,704 131,535-5,918,969 2,745,163 (-) (, ) * 34,569,741 56,658,199 - - NOPLAT 68,148,493 127,296,994 40,333,264 32,519,563 40,179,457 10 148,661,214 159,816,566 NOPLAT +,, 57,130,254-217,581,810 9,054,252 5,706,232-659,577-4,315,782 - - 65,524,929-216,191,360 Free Cash Flow 83,136,285 376,007,927 NOPLAT EBIT * (1-t) FCF NOPLAT, IC NOPLAT FCF 7 FCF = NOPLAT = (NOPLAT + ) ( + ) = 7 IC EBIT,, - :, EBIT + - : ( ) WACC 25
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) CAPM X Ke Ke=Rf + (Rm-Rf)*β L WACC Rf : Rm : β L : Levered Beta X Kd*(1-t) STEP 1 : (1) WACC WACC, bias, WACC,, WACC,, bias (2) 3, 26
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) STEP 2 : The Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM K e = r f + [ E(r m ) r f ] β L CAPM r f, (1) : 10 T-bond (2) 1) 2) - -, 3), 4) 1999 Ibbotson Associates 1926 ~1998 59%, Emerging Market Risk Premium 1% 69% 5), WACC CAPM 25% 30%, Emerging Market Risk, 1% Emerging Market Risk Premium (3) (β) 1), 2), i) ii) 02 iii) 02, 27
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) STEP 3 : STEP 4 : (WACC) WACC B WACC = k (1 t) + k V P V b p + E ke V k b k p k e = = =, 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) = + FCF,, EBITDA 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) (1) Comparable Companies 1 2 3 4 5 (-) = /EBITDA TIC/EBITDA,, EBITDA :, : EBITDA : TIC/EBITDA, Multiple 28
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (2) Market ( Earnings Guide ) Multiple, EV/EBITDA, Multiple,, TIC/EBITDA Multiple (3) Historical Record Multiple( Multiple),, ( ) Multiple Multiple, Multiple 7 ( 5 ) (1) 1) DCF FCF + (CV) = Present Value of Projection Period ( FCF ) = FCF1 FCF 2 FCF3 FCF 4 FCF5 + + + + (1 + WACC)^ ( (1 WACC)^ (1 WACC)^ (1 WACC)^ (1 WACC)^ m m m m 1 ) + (2 ) + (3 ) + (4 ) + 12 12 12 12 Present Value of Continuing Value( (CV) ) = FCF5 1 WACC r (1 + WACC m )^ (5 ) 12 r FCF 2) Market Multiple 5 EBITDA * Market Multiple = 3) Historical Multiple 5 EBITDA * Market Multiple = m (5 ) 12 (2) 1 : TIC 2 : NOA 3 (1+2) : FV DCF Market Multiple Historical Multiple ( : ) 29
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (3) 1 : FV 2 : IBD 3 (1 2) : EV 4 5 (3 4) DCF Market Multiple Historical Multiple ( : ) 30
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) V 1 1 2 3 1 1 3, 2 2, 2 1 5 1 15, 31
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 2 Multiple EPS PER EV/EBITDA PBR PEG PCR ROE ROIC ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (%) (%) (%) 2001 1,549 132 60 08 03 38 58 77 1225 28 2002 2,905 71 54 07 03 35 104 87 1102 44 2001-6,815 N/A 234 31 N/A 185-93 - 487 N/A 2002 9,708 292 111 34 05 121 130 296 398 N/A 2001 5,942 380 239 31 N/A 215 87 132 228 N/A 2002 76 7444 132 13 26 96 02 14 162 N/A 2001 4,923 78 47 10 14 44 128 145 798 70 2002 5,455 59 37 08 06 38 131 158 720 98 2001 5,232 48 19 03 01 14 58 127 396 91 2002 8,419 37 13 03 02 15 91 194 302 335 < : LG 2004 3 > (1) EPS (Earnings Per Share) : = { + *(1- )} / (2) PER (Price Earnings Ratio) : / EPS EPS PER Target company Step1 Target company PER Step2 Target company EPS = { + *(1- )} / Step3 Target company EPS PER = Target company EPS * PER(Price/Earnings) = Target company (3) EV 8 / EBITDA : ( + ) / ( + ) EV/EBITDA Target company Step1 Target company EV/EBITDA Step2 Target company EBITDA = + Step3 Target company EBITDA EV/EBITDA = Target company EBITDA * EV/EBITDA = Target company EV Step4 Target company EV Target company = Target company EV - Target company = Target company Step4 Target company Target company Target company = Target company / Target company = Target company (4) PBR : / (BPS:Book value Per Share) PBR(PriceBook-valueRatio) 1 (PBR= /1 ) 8 EV Enterprise Value,,,, + +,,, 32
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) PBR PBR 1 1 PBR 1, 1 PBR (-) (-),, PBR 0 (+) (5) PEG (PER-EPS Growth) : PER/EPS ( 3 ) PEG PER PER PEG PER PER PEG PER / (1+EPS ) (6) PCR : / (CFPS: Cash Flow Per Share) (7) ROE : /{( + )/2} * 100 (8) ROIC : / * 100 (9) : / * 100 (10) 9 : / (11) : ( + + ) ( ) H, = 1,000 = 1,500 EBITDA = 1,900 = 0 = 6,883,087 EV/EBITDA = 13 EV/EBITDA Multiple, EV/EBITDA * EBITDA = 13 * 1,900 = 2,470 (H EV) EV= FV- cashes = (IBD + Equity Value) cashes Equity Value = EV IBD + cashes = 2,470 0 + 1,000 = 3,470 = 3,470 / 6,883,087 = 50,413 9,, / ( ),,? 33
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) VI Case Study 1 ( H) 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) (1) Balance Sheet (,%) 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 200309 49,611,560 32,292,544 5,703,299 25,049,599 15,502,066 53,083,778 93,685,808 7,280,472 20,795,619 54,935,745 5,896,807 9,451,391 9,438,470 11,588,534 146,786,790 105,390,040 93,916,699 140,223,324 122,391,151 151,301,356 155,979,628 12,807,104 14,833,944 7,059,394 7,612,618 5,170,873 4,367,549 4,279,140 28,679,836 28,292,949 24,562,479 25,859,326 21,867,600 23,583,592 28,783,573 245,165,762 201,605,096 186,177,616 204,641,674 174,383,081 241,774,745 294,316,683 102,510,783 124,528,936 111,797,729 100,559,869 139,784,878 123,421,344 144,159,647 333,799,427 552,868,656 521,568,144 485,909,949 462,004,350 431,580,450 415,273,653 * 131,239,531 175,698,021 177,041,439 177,981,571 177,956,827 178,399,121 178,390,272 18,686,517 11,903,769 16,079,194 21,937,516 6,297,089 5,441,977 6,157,060 9,092,604 14,664,618 13,566,937 10,954,646 9,297,669 8,638,092 9,849,057 10,176,504 942,906 0 0 0 0 0 474,265,835 704,908,885 663,012,004 619,361,980 617,383,986 569,081,863 575,439,417 719,431,597 906,513,981 849,189,620 824,003,654 791,767,067 810,856,608 869,756,100 59,959,447 34,763,123 39,279,438 46,840,027 45,093,687 55,316,793 52,201,714 70,911,022 46,985,000 16,700,000 0 0 0 0 33,634,670 14,914,417 14,506,204 12,727,928 9,010,101 8,361,577 0 10,000,000 30,010,000 45,010,000 35,000,000 21,220,130 49,690,772 0 45,910,868 34,809,725 35,840,650 44,758,231 42,165,318 45,977,615 93,663,008 220,416,007 161,482,265 151,336,292 139,326,186 117,489,236 159,346,757 145,864,722 45,901,402 131,169,222 113,675,027 101,538,399 73,547,945 0 0 86,077,004 53,638,984 36,859,059 35,819,624 20,252,082 16,852,188 6,446,215 59,804,155 26,452,300 6,021,719 4,988,609 4,145,889 3,115,772 4,753,921 8,019,842 7,756,887 6,826,557 7,018,663 6,721,542 6,588,332 6,601,427 199,802,403 219,017,393 163,382,362 149,365,295 104,667,458 26,556,292 17,801,563 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 420,218,410 380,499,658 314,718,654 288,691,482 222,156,695 185,903,050 163,666,286 25,114,655 31,664,035 31,664,035 31,664,035 31,664,035 34,415,435 34,415,435 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 142,401,259 358,693,235 358,340,320 358,340,320 358,340,320 365,281,136 365,281,136 127,941,435 132,130,255 142,240,672 158,888,729 185,712,094 230,503,510 310,036,378 3,755,838 3,526,798 2,225,939-13,580,913-6,106,076-5,246,524-3,643,136 299,213,187 526,014,323 534,470,966 535,312,171 569,610,373 624,953,557 706,089,813 OK OK OK 1-1 1 1 Income Statement (,%) 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 200309 479,180,386 374,229,283 383,730,781 417,553,063 484,913,438 566,639,501 443,312,794 364,851,476 284,122,512 271,342,641 295,237,590 340,536,091 372,177,950 278,276,000 114,328,910 90,106,771 112,388,140 122,315,473 144,377,347 194,461,551 165,036,794 65,333,321 54,732,837 61,931,518 43,429,860 49,442,535 51,563,860 46,787,806 48,995,589 35,373,934 50,456,622 78,885,613 94,934,812 142,897,691 118,248,988 14,564,376 18,434,850 19,090,776 13,760,908 11,929,761 8,203,530 8,434,073 24,766,450 40,865,393 29,288,263 17,780,732 15,042,524 6,934,213 3,502,823 13,017,987 809,621 3,589,206 25,061,617 38,472,511 40,179,457 10 10,887,826 2,088,483 12,921,229 19,992,404 4,910,080 25,790,761 1,016,610 14,887,702 10,045,287 23,748,700 29,811,768 48,439,458 78,196,790 122,163,618 0 615,469 0 0 0 0 0 100,523 1,716,019 0 0 0 0 0 14,787,179 8,944,737 23,748,700 29,811,768 48,439,458 78,196,790 122,163,618 4,384,795 2,491,973 7,647,598 9,350,984 18,658,198 26,317,068 36,338,636 10,402,384 6,452,764 16,101,102 20,460,784 29,781,260 51,879,722 85,824,982 (2) NOA, IBD 93,685,808 11,588,534 144,159,647 249,433,989 0 0 0 0 6,446,215 6,446,215 34
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 2 ( 2 ) (1) Forecasting 35
, Valuation (DCF Multiple ) Assumptions (,%) 200312 200412 200512 200612 200712 200812 1 ( ) 590,894,257 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 428-095 000 000 000 000 2 343,979,447 343,979,447 343,979,447 343,979,447 343,979,447 343,979,447 5821 5877 5877 5877 5877 5877 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 7614 7592 7071 7071 7023 6568 7486 8186 8046 8354 8062 8883 8224 8456 8412 8702 8143 7544 7354 7232 7423 7995 7669 7647 7722 9379 7843 7545 6542 6270 7105 7446 7432 7915 7129 6484 7578 8140 7831 8102 7509 7366 3 62,959,608 78,938,693 75,413,082 76,335,246 77,377,645 78,541,327 1065 1349 1288 1304 1322 1342 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 1363 1463 1614 1040 1020 910 902 969 811 833 1106 918 854 798 928 1243 972 982 1287 1410 1277 1405 1687 1600 995 1052 951 932 857 842 1416 1104 1209 1132 968 1061 1091 1067 1035 1109 1118 1081 4 (2) 155,979,628 155,979,628 155,979,628 155,979,628 155,979,628 155,979,628 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 365 297 385 357 369 414 376 417 984 881 705 419 625 454 561 555 745 972 289 256 300 280 284 283 414 304 309 318 325 376 573 451 580 1020 1109 888 455 377 547 611 634 588 590,894,257 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 5 (2) 28,783,573 28,783,573 28,783,573 28,783,573 28,783,573 28,783,573 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 1649 1314 1452 1656 2032 2493 890 509 741 1206 1596 1394 2147 1490 1589 1580 1711 1948 1009 790 852 851 845 856 1255 1005 1012 1252 1777 1964 1384 972 1183 1534 1670 2016 1337 953 1075 1285 1520 1636 6 (2) 52,201,714 52,201,714 52,201,714 52,201,714 52,201,714 52,201,714 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 963 790 1037 970 1055 1129 1214 822 1466 1651 1160 685 669 560 762 912 934 747 699 577 636 574 643 744 955 869 1159 1234 1238 1205 2299 1559 1813 2159 2519 2575 1167 877 1167 1306 1299 1191 36
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (2) Balance Sheet (,%) 200212 (Latest) 200312 200412 200512 200612 200712 53,083,778 167,713,609 301,012,088 435,537,777 565,413,684 693,615,240 9,438,470 11,588,534 11,588,534 11,588,534 11,588,534 11,588,534 151,301,356 155,979,628 155,979,628 155,979,628 155,979,628 155,979,628 4,367,549 4,279,140 4,279,140 4,279,140 4,279,140 4,279,140 23,583,592 28,783,573 28,783,573 28,783,573 28,783,573 28,783,573 241,774,745 368,344,484 501,642,963 636,168,652 766,044,559 894,246,115 123,421,344 144,159,647 144,159,647 144,159,647 144,159,647 144,159,647 431,580,450 404,052,036 384,750,066 369,137,542 357,588,616 347,047,128 * 178,399,121 178,390,272 178,390,272 178,390,272 178,390,272 178,390,272 5,441,977 6,157,060 6,157,060 6,157,060 6,157,060 6,157,060 8,638,092 4,322,310 6,527 3,093-0 - 0 - - - - - - 569,081,863 558,691,053 535,073,300 519,457,342 507,905,323 497,363,835 810,856,608 927,035,536 1,036,716,263 1,155,625,995 1,273,949,881 1,391,609,950 55,316,793 52,201,714 52,201,714 52,201,714 52,201,714 52,201,714 - - - - - - 8,361,577 - - - - - 49,690,772 - - - - - 45,977,615 93,663,008 93,663,008 93,663,008 93,663,008 93,663,008 159,346,757 145,864,722 145,864,722 145,864,722 145,864,722 145,864,722 - - - - - - 16,852,188 6,446,215 - - - - 3,115,772 4,753,921 5,229,313 5,752,244 6,327,469 6,960,216 6,588,332 6,601,427 6,601,427 6,601,427 6,601,427 6,601,427 26,556,292 17,801,563 11,830,740 12,353,671 12,928,896 13,561,643 - - - - - - 185,903,050 163,666,285 157,695,462 158,218,393 158,793,618 159,426,365 34,415,435 34,415,435 34,415,435 34,415,435 34,415,435 34,415,435 - - - - - - 365,281,136 365,281,136 365,281,136 365,281,136 365,281,136 365,281,136 230,503,510 363,672,680 479,324,230 597,711,030 715,459,692 832,487,015-5,246,524 - - - - - 624,953,557 763,369,251 879,020,801 997,407,601 1,115,156,263 1,232,183,586-1 OK OK OK OK OK Income Statement (,%) 200212 (Latest) 200312 200412 200512 200612 200712 566,639,501 590,894,257 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 585,291,503 372,177,950 343,979,447 343,979,447 343,979,447 343,979,447 343,979,447 194,461,551 246,914,811 241,312,056 241,312,056 241,312,056 241,312,056 51,563,860 62,959,608 78,938,693 75,413,082 76,335,246 77,377,645 142,897,691 183,955,203 162,373,363 165,898,974 164,976,810 163,934,411 8,203,530 9,577,662 5,180,216 5,180,216 5,180,216 5,180,216 6,934,213 427,062 427,062 - - - 40,179,457 10 - - - - 25,790,761 664,796 - - - - 78,196,790 192,440,998 167,126,517 171,079,190 170,157,026 169,114,627 - - - - - - - - - - - - 78,196,790 192,440,998 167,126,517 171,079,190 170,157,026 169,114,627 26,317,068 59,271,827 51,474,967 52,692,391 52,408,364 52,087,305 51,879,722 133,169,170 115,651,550 118,386,800 117,748,662 117,027,322 * 40,333,264 32,519,563 25,301,970 20,612,524 17,548,927 15,541,487 37
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 3 (DCF 3 ) Free Cash Flow (,%) 200212 (Latest) 200312 200412 200512 200612 200712 142,897,691 183,955,203 162,373,363 165,898,974 164,976,810 163,934,411 40,179,457 10 - - - - - - - - - - EBIT 102,718,234 183,955,193 162,373,363 165,898,974 164,976,810 163,934,411 183,230,955 216,474,766 187,675,333 186,511,498 182,525,737 179,475,898 190,532,646 26,317,068 59,271,827 51,474,967 52,692,391 52,408,364 52,087,305 ( ) 337 308 308 308 308 308 2,333,704 131,535 131,535 - - - - 5,918,969 2,745,163 1,595,507 1,595,507 1,595,507 1,595,507 34,569,741 56,658,199 50,010,996 51,096,884 50,812,857 50,491,799 - - - - - - NOPLAT 68,148,493 127,296,994 112,362,367 114,802,090 114,163,952 113,442,612 40,333,264 32,519,563 25,301,970 20,612,524 17,548,927 15,541,487 40,179,457 10 - - - - 148,661,214 159,816,566 137,664,337 135,414,614 131,712,879 128,984,100 57,130,254-36,418,609-475,392-522,931-575,224-632,747 9,054,252 5,706,232 6,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000-659,577-4,315,782-4,315,782-3,434-3,093 - - - - - - - 65,524,929-35,028,159 1,208,826 4,473,634 5,421,683 4,367,253 Free Cash Flow 83,136,285 194,844,726 136,455,512 130,940,979 126,291,197 124,616,847 Terminal Growth - 5,442,638 6,627,742 3,584,710 3,584,710 3,584,710 3,584,710 17,110,901 460,039 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 71,468,023 201,012,429 140,040,222 134,525,689 129,875,906 128,201,556 206,272,046 140,040,222 134,525,689 129,875,906 128,201,556 114,629,831 133,298,480 134,525,689 129,875,906 128,201,556 2,150,064 - - - - 20,738,303 - - - - 295,527 295,527 - - - - 68,458,322-6,446,215 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) Key Reference 770 07010 3653 6347 03183 1 ( ) 607 (1520) 08139 93,402,609 1,514,254,341 00666 ( - 890 (3410) 04933 353,456,105 2,733,085,735 00777 (60 ) 07010 (910) 08571 20,605,993 21,705,972 04957 (2030) 04358 112,509,592 104,394,653 02654 1231 (6390) 05761 94,387,257 269,214,912 01937 (Default Risk 5%) 06230 75,834,281 131,771,846 03183 Cost of Capital - 000 000 6,446,215 10000 700 484-000 000 000 000 000 000-1 000 000-2 000 000-3 000 000 700 484 6347 307 3,709,776 1231 3653 450-000 10,155,991 757 1231 38
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) (1) Market Multiple Balance Sheet Total Assets 2,075,436,117 3,548,373,828 94,717,349 593,062,383 695,761,696 1,161,835,280 Total Debt 1,798,178,798 3,326,529,562 38,722,763 170,706,169 389,531,185 809,857,060 Total Equity 277,257,319 221,844,266 55,994,586 422,356,213 306,230,511 351,978,220 Non Operating Asset 819,243,881 558,141,963 18,394,902 253,237,591 125,403,609 24,717,572 Interest Bearing Debt 1,514,254,341 2,733,085,735 21,705,972 104,394,653 269,214,912 628,738,385 Net Operating Asset 972,267,779 2,396,788,038 59,305,656 273,513,276 450,041,814 955,999,033 Income Statement Revenue 1,440,781,277 1,168,167,864 58,434,649 249,237,280 367,822,283 567,334,450 EBIT 119,943,168 103,460,481 3,765,833 64,842,764 69,989,454 131,957,421 EBITDA 241,550,629 298,564,525 9,101,420 92,603,050 122,576,606 205,935,797 Corporate Value Common Stock Stock Price 2,889 2,034 15,146 25,682 12,852 12,473 Stock # 27,428,587 141,909,119 1,360,448 4,380,844 7,344,000 17,923,049 Preferred Stock Stock Price 1,514 1,436 - - - 5,640 Stock #-1 9,347,748 45,141,736 - - - 1,243,236 Total Stock Value 93,402,609 353,456,105 20,605,993 112,509,592 94,387,257 230,568,485 Interest Bearing Debt 1,514,254,341 2,733,085,735 21,705,972 104,394,653 269,214,912 628,738,385 Total Value 1,607,656,950 3,086,541,840 42,311,965 216,904,245 363,602,169 859,306,870 Non Operating Asset 819,243,881 558,141,963 18,394,902 253,237,591 125,403,609 24,717,572 Cashes 20,309,293 53,069,278 2,742,552 45,025,332 28,483,452 10,397,461 Total Invested Capital 788,413,069 2,528,399,877 23,917,063-36,333,346 238,198,560 834,589,298 Enterprise Vaue 1,587,347,657 3,033,472,562 39,569,413 171,878,913 335,118,717 848,909,409 Index EBITDA 241,550,629 298,564,525 9,101,420 92,603,050 122,576,606 205,935,797 EBIT 119,943,168 103,460,481 3,765,833 64,842,764 69,989,454 131,957,421 Revenue 1,440,781,277 1,168,167,864 58,434,649 249,237,280 367,822,283 567,334,450 Net Operating Asset 972,267,779 2,396,788,038 59,305,656 273,513,276 450,041,814 955,999,033 Multiple TIC/EBITDA Multiple 33 85 26-04 19 41 EV/EBITDA Multiple 66 102 43 19 27 41 EBIT Multiple 66 244 64-06 34 63 Revenue Multiple 05 22 04-01 06 15 Net Operating Asset Multiple 08 11 04-01 05 09 PER (High) - 51 92 171 34 37 53 PER (Low) - 15 34 47 22 20 16 PER (FY End) - 16 38 47 24 28 35 Multiple Selection TIC/EBITDA M Selected 26,, EV/EBITDA M Selected 46 39
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (2) Historical Multiple Valuation Reference 199712 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 200309 2000 2002 TIC/EBITDA 0977 (EV/EBITDA Multiple : 1793) 40
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 7 ( 5 ) (1) 1) DCF 12 3 Value of Operating Free Cash Flow FCF 200312 194,844,726 09714 189,271,426 200412 136,455,512 08649 118,024,746 200512 130,940,979 07701 100,842,400 200612 126,291,197 06857 86,601,669 200712 124,616,847 06106 76,087,889 200812 121,559,745 05437 66,086,713 200912 120,884,314 04841 58,516,712 201012 123,451,820 04310 53,209,975 201112 120,715,627 03838 46,328,117 124,616,847 49604 618,150,426 1,112,890,666 FCF + (CV) = PV(200312~200712 FCF) + PV(124,616,847 ) = (189,271,426 + 118,024,746 + 100,842,400 + 86,601,669 + 76,087,889) + 618,150,426 = 1,112,890,666 2) Market Multiple EBITDA * Market Multiple = 190,532,646 * 26 = 495,384,879 3) Historical Multiple EBITDA * Historical Multiple = 190,532,646 * 0977 = 186,150,395 4) EV/EBITDA Multiple EBITDA * EV/EBITDA Multiple = 190,532,646 * 46 = 876,450,172 141,648 5) EV/EBITDA Historical Multiple EBITDA * EV/EBITDA H M = 190,532,646 * 1793 = 341,625,043 (2) ( : ) DCF Market Multiple Historical Multiple EV/EBITDA HM 1 : TIC 1,112,890,666 495,384,879 186,150,395 341,625,043 2 : NOA 249,433,989 249,433,989 249,433,989 105,274,342 3 (1+2) : FV 1,362,324,655 744,818,868 435,584,384 446,899,385 (3) ( :, ) DCF Market Multiple Historical Multiple EV/EBITDA HM 1 : FV 1,362,324,655 744,818,868 435,584,384 446,899,385 2 : IBD 6,446,215 6,446,215 6,446,215 6,446,215 3 (1 2) : EV 1,355,878,440 738,372,653 429,138,169 440,453,170 4 6,883,087 6,883,087 6,883,087 6,883,087 5 (3 4) 196,987 107,273 62,346 63,991 41
Valuation (DCF Multiple ),, WACC 196,987, Multiple 26 107,273, Multiple 0977 Multiple Multiple EV/EBITDA Multiple, H 2004 62,000,,, EV/EBITDA Historical Multiple TIC/EBITDA Historical Multiple, 2,494, 36,238, 60,000, 23,762, 1,500, 47,052 48,696 40%, 60,000 48,000,, (WACC, hurdle rate) ( ),, 5%, M&A Valuation 5%, EVA 1, 2 5, 3 EVA(EP), 4 WACC WACC DCF WACC 200212 (Latest) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 127,296,994 112,362,367 114,802,090 114,163,952 113,442,612 2477 2517 2719 2811 2879 63,262,875 54,946,138 51,980,271 49,993,574 48,500,710 513,914,502 446,353,676 422,260,532 406,121,643 393,994,398 1231 1231 1231 1231 1231 64,034,119 57,416,229 62,821,819 64,170,378 64,941,902 09864 09084 08365 07704 07095 637,665,073 63,160,981 52,155,088 52,552,951 49,436,280 46,074,515 513,914,502 374,285,258 1,151,579,575 249,433,989 1,401,013,564 6,446,215 1,394,567,349 6,883,087 202,608 EVA EP DCF, Invested Capital WACC EVA (IC), 42
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) ROIC 25% 1231% (WACC), ROIC,,,, ROIC 25%, ROIC 25%,,, 43
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) VII Case Study 2 ( K) Situation : K, ( ) ( 153,514 (30,703) (122,811) 0 (0) 98,852 0 (9,885) (9,885) (79,082) 70,000 70,000 93,510 (9,351) (9,351) (74,808) 70,000 70,000 5,342 (534) (534) (4,274) 0 0 0 0 0 39,750 0 0 0 39,750 (74,857) 74,857 (10,089) (10,089) 22,046 22,046 338,157 0 (40,588) (132,696) (4,225) 59,911 121,707 96,773 (91,934) 1,921 0 0 70,000 76,760 96,773 (91,934) 1,921 70,000 76,760 0 0 91,934 74,930 166,864 (53,859) 0 4,225 (10,089) (59,724) 29,980 (36,263) (6,283) 72,894 0 40,588 0 4,225 59,911 177,617 *1 20 1 *2 20% 80% 0% 200,000 768 29,935 10% 10% 80% 200,000 234 9,117 10% 10% 80% 200,000 13 521 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 200,000 907 35,356 1,921 74,930 *3 70,000 Re-Finance 70,000 44
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) (1) Balance Sheet (,%) 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112 54,957,028 35,207,725 0 12,721,176 20,149,461 24,154,093 5,072,555 13,846,127 0 34,246 30,360 0 114,857,330 118,704,702 0 46,454,486 42,807,807 53,032,024 108,154,216 91,375,682 0 4,041,794 2,560,305 1,931,421 180,498,410 144,965,269 0 57,413,205 60,817,580 59,634,482 463,539,539 404,099,505 0 120,664,907 126,365,513 138,752,020 38,753,571 37,233,383 0 21,489,233 10,435,405 11,198,208 210,621,917 213,928,616 0 276,269,774 265,246,282 258,298,246 * 102,042,613 103,615,843 0 165,675,403 165,433,973 161,722,236 1,692,033 312,985 0 0 0 2,000 4,592,616 4,927,546 0 3,806,547 4,119,650 2,800,221 255,172 139,041 0 0 0 0 255,915,309 256,541,571 0 301,565,554 279,801,337 272,298,675 719,454,848 660,641,076 0 422,230,461 406,166,850 411,050,695 81,573,569 57,438,622 0 35,532,593 18,320,108 17,371,792 160,829,600 306,279,048 0 711,046,724 50,500,130 39,750,130 23,314,388 45,414,000 0 289,443 0 2,971,988 101,825,429 92,030,711 0 0 0 0 39,220,680 56,197,369 0 205,117,464 32,874,624 27,444,482 406,763,666 557,359,750 0 951,986,224 101,694,862 87,538,392 161,417,526 91,192,233 0 0 0 0 22,304,057 18,927,335 0 613,505 183,127,992 194,846,596 39,269,665 39,772,300 0 39,188,584 47,224,515 53,271,790 4,264,945 7,719,052 0 1,788,110 1,544,740 2,500,409 227,256,193 157,610,920 0 41,590,199 231,897,247 250,618,795 0 0 0 0 0 0 634,019,859 714,970,669 0 993,576,423 333,592,110 338,157,188 170,429,785 170,429,785 0 11,361,985 96,772,865 96,772,865 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,195,012 32,195,012 0 0 0 0-114,331,760-250,928,767 0-582,590,046-54,142,155-53,859,418-2,858,048-6,025,624 0-117,901 29,944,030 29,980,060 85,434,989-54,329,594 0-571,345,962 72,574,740 72,893,507 OK 1 OK OK OK OK Income Statement (,%) 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112 294,266,843 245,211,414 0 121,445,176 170,626,154 193,939,269 270,826,900 266,730,827 0 145,464,191 162,782,027 175,919,741 23,439,943-21,519,413 0-24,019,015 7,844,127 18,019,528 16,207,089 36,659,669 0 18,696,820 9,181,976 9,016,647 7,232,854-58,179,082 0-42,715,835-1,337,849 9,002,881 22,599,394 28,596,375 0 3,229,346 4,106,481 18,008,401 74,637,187 83,736,933 0 141,719,081 28,663,339 29,569,350 5,562,561 45,487,755 0 24,774,362 10,947,194 969,231 2,481,880 2,911,038 0 5,550,396 7,242,275 2,613,106-52,849,380-161,718,433 0-211,530,328-44,084,176-6,140,405 4,183,608 26,267,933 0 3,312,098 563,221,778 6,423,142 64,483 0 0 0 0-48,730,255-135,450,500 0-208,218,230 519,137,602 282,737 39,732 0 0 0 0 0-48,769,987-135,450,500 0-208,218,230 519,137,602 282,737 (2) NOA, IBD 24,154,093 0 11,198,208 35,352,301 0 0 0 59,911,000 0 59,911,000 NOA IBD 45
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 2 ( 2 ) (1) Forecasting Assumptions (,%) 200212 200312 200412 200512 200612 200712 1 ( ) 193,939,269 234,428,193 274,917,116 274,917,116 274,917,116 274,917,116 1366 2088 1727 000 000 000 2 174,355,812 199,320,289 220,235,874 220,235,874 220,235,874 220,235,874 8990 8502 8011 8011 8011 8011 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112 9203 10878 #DIV/0! 11978 9540 9071 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8296 7921 8693 8955 10197 9049 8633 8532 8505 9419 9681 8664 8342 8889 8478 8525 8812 8217 8178 8297 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 8559 8966 9563 8644 8385 8573 3 9,477,182 9,816,371 10,167,375 10,538,838 10,933,712 11,349,858 489 419 370 383 398 413 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112 551 1495 #DIV/0! 1540 538 465 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2123 1609 790 816 1161 1022 1012 1002 766 909 684 1046 1361 1212 1479 1578 2872 1614 1537 1356 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1012 1101 1572 1227 1303 1190 4 (2) 44,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 60,000,000 60,000,000 60,000,000 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112 000 210 000 523 382 405 000 000 000 000 123 282 569 480 321 490 537 524 683 471 468 610 528 412 347 268 128 312 369 348 000 000 000 000 000 000 320 244 183 282 311 313 193,939,269 234,428,193 274,917,116 274,917,116 274,917,116 274,917,116 5 (2) 59,634,482 63,251,662 67,230,559 67,230,559 67,230,559 67,230,559 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112 000 151 000 423 289 322 000 000 000 000 289 642 1403 1178 662 1327 1690 1349 707 536 517 527 464 435 735 681 404 942 1109 1088 000 000 000 000 000 000 569 479 317 559 710 703 6 (2) 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112 000 353 000 684 634 1087 000 000 000 000 238 548 3 (DCF 3 ) 736 659 445 665 578 509 355 322 320 351 537 936 548 457 238 519 658 599 000 000 000 000 000 000 328 288 201 307 402 518 46
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (2) Balance Sheet (,%) 200112 (Latest) 200212 200312 200412 200512 200612 24,154,093 26,288,620 19,933,085 49,736,718 94,011,678 113,034,793 - - - - - - 53,032,024 44,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 60,000,000 60,000,000 1,931,421 1,931,421 1,931,421 1,931,421 1,931,421 1,931,421 59,634,482 59,634,482 63,251,662 67,230,559 67,230,559 67,230,559 138,752,020 131,854,523 135,116,168 178,898,698 223,173,659 242,196,773 11,198,208 11,198,208 11,198,208 11,198,208 11,198,208 11,198,208 258,298,246 246,756,000 239,628,280 232,788,504 225,973,211 219,762,494 * 161,722,236 161,722,000 161,722,000 161,722,000 161,722,000 161,722,000 2,000 342,000 342,000 342,000 342,000 342,000 2,800,221 3,089,738 2,059,824 1,029,912-1 - 1 - - - - - - 272,298,675 261,385,946 253,228,312 245,358,624 237,513,418 231,302,701 411,050,695 393,240,468 388,344,480 424,257,322 460,687,077 473,499,474 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 17,371,792 39,750,130 39,750,130 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 2,971,988 - - - - - - - - - - - 27,444,482 25,748,000 25,748,000 25,748,000 25,748,000 25,748,000 87,538,392 82,869,922 58,119,792 58,119,792 58,119,792 58,119,792 - - - - - - 194,846,596 59,911,000 62,900,320 66,248,358 69,998,161 50,000,000 53,271,790 59,111,000 65,022,100 71,524,310 78,676,741 86,544,415 2,500,409 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 250,618,795 121,522,000 130,422,420 140,272,668 151,174,902 139,044,415 - - - - - - 338,157,188 204,391,922 188,542,212 198,392,460 209,294,694 197,164,207 96,772,865 76,759,865 76,759,865 76,759,865 76,759,865 76,759,865 - - - - - - - 166,864,000 166,864,000 166,864,000 166,864,000 166,864,000-53,859,418-48,492,319-37,538,597-11,476,003 14,051,517 38,994,402 29,980,060-6,283,000-6,283,000-6,283,000-6,283,000-6,283,000 72,893,507 188,848,546 199,802,268 225,864,862 251,392,382 276,335,267 OK OK OK OK OK OK Income Statement (,%) 200112 (Latest) 200212 200312 200412 200512 200612 193,939,269 193,939,269 234,428,193 274,917,116 274,917,116 274,917,116 175,919,741 174,355,812 199,320,289 220,235,874 220,235,874 220,235,874 18,019,528 19,583,457 35,107,903 54,681,242 54,681,242 54,681,242 9,016,647 9,477,182 9,816,371 10,167,375 10,538,838 10,933,712 9,002,881 10,106,276 25,291,532 44,513,867 44,142,404 43,747,530 18,008,401 18,022,524 2,496,880 2,496,880 2,496,880 2,496,880 29,569,350 11,958,120 11,959,336 9,348,038 9,749,803 10,199,779 969,231 - - - - - 2,613,106 2,550,756 - - - - - 6,140,405 13,619,924 15,829,077 37,662,709 36,889,481 36,044,631 6,423,142 4,225,000 - - - - - 10,089,000 - - - - 282,737 7,755,924 15,829,077 37,662,709 36,889,481 36,044,631-2,388,825 4,875,356 11,600,114 11,361,960 11,101,746 282,737 5,367,099 10,953,721 26,062,594 25,527,521 24,942,885 * 11,202,281 11,202,000 11,823,320 11,875,444 11,880,571 11,948,034 47
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (3) FCF EBITDA Free Cash Flow (,%) 200112 (Latest) 200212 200312 200412 200512 200612 9,002,881 10,106,276 25,291,532 44,513,867 44,142,404 43,747,530 969,231 - - - - - - - - - - - EBIT 8,033,650 10,106,276 25,291,532 44,513,867 44,142,404 43,747,530 20,205,162 21,308,276 37,114,852 56,389,311 56,022,975 55,695,565 45,306,196-2,388,825 4,875,356 11,600,114 11,361,960 11,101,746 ( ) - 308 308 308 308 308-3,683,101 3,683,475 2,879,196 3,002,939 3,141,532-4,765,305 769,039 769,039 769,039 769,039-1,306,621 7,789,792 13,710,271 13,595,860 13,474,239 - - - - - - NOPLAT 8,033,650 8,799,655 17,501,740 30,803,596 30,546,543 30,273,291 11,202,281 11,202,000 11,823,320 11,875,444 11,880,571 11,948,034 969,231 - - - - - 20,205,162 20,001,655 29,325,060 42,679,040 42,427,114 42,221,325 8,756,980-13,174,343 3,706,080 7,476,688-7,152,431-7,867,674 4,256,245-246 4,695,600 5,035,668 5,065,278 5,737,317-1,319,429 289,517-1,029,914-1,029,913-1,029,913 - - - - - - - 11,693,796-12,885,073 7,371,766 11,482,443-3,117,066-2,130,357 Free Cash Flow 8,511,366 32,886,727 21,953,294 31,196,596 45,544,180 44,351,682 Terminal Growth - 18,008,401 12,471,587 1,727,841 1,727,841 1,727,841 1,727,841 2,613,106 1,765,123 - - - - 6,423,142 4,225,000 - - - - - 10,089,000 - - - - 30,329,803 37,729,191 23,681,135 32,924,437 47,272,021 46,079,523 1,466,130 23,681,135 32,924,437 47,272,021 46,079,523 2,134,527-6,355,535 29,803,633 44,274,960 19,023,114 - - - - - - - - - - 8,275,019 8,275,860 6,468,843 6,746,864 7,058,247-137,907,584-21,760,810 3,348,038 3,749,803-19,998,161-20,013,000 - - - - 166,864,000 - - - - 48
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 4 WACC (DCF 4 ) Key Reference 770 06511 181,616,217 336,138,140 02855 1 ( ) 607 (42670 09548 512,801,315 958,993,023 04162 ( - 890 (05030) 03300 9,299,388 20,859,207 01293 (60 ) 06511 (12280) 05811 22,747,948 28,562,189 03109 (10660) 07103 18,131,592 18,037,343 04207 1686 () 00000 - - #DIV/0! (Default Risk 5%) 06220 181,616,217 336,138,140 02855 Cost of Capital 39,750,130 1086 1000 692 075 197,818,584 5406 700 484 262-000 1000 692 000 000 000 000 000 000 000-1 000 000 000-2 000 000 000-3 000 000 000 850 128,358,927 3508 1686 592-000 000 000 365,927,641 10000 1686 5 EBITDA (Multiple 3 ) 49
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 6 Multiple (Multiple 4 ) (1) Market Multiple Balance Sheet Total Assets 2,313,154,900 54,065,533 55,443,018 103,110,564 Total Debt 1,658,402,713 34,878,127 35,997,308 45,038,507 Total Equity 654,752,188 19,187,407 19,445,711 58,072,057 Non Operating Asset 459,018,003 9,627,942 5,681,990 20,270,504 Interest Bearing Debt 958,993,023 20,859,207 28,562,189 18,037,343 Net Operating Asset 1,154,727,207 30,418,671 42,325,909 55,838,896 Income Statement Revenue 1,540,261,374 46,215,366 46,974,336 81,136,524 EBIT 72,359,135 2,154,219 (472,794) 2,814,740 EBITDA 169,269,757 5,399,647 3,750,257 8,979,429 Corporate Value Common Stock Stock Price 3,053 12,916 782 8,242 Stock # 167,957,384 720,000 29,080,340 2,200,000 Preferred Stock Stock Price - - - - Stock #-1 - - - - Total Stock Value 512,801,315 9,299,388 22,747,948 18,131,592 Interest Bearing Debt 958,993,023 20,859,207 28,562,189 18,037,343 Total Value 1,471,794,338 30,158,595 51,310,137 36,168,935 Non Operating Asset 459,018,003 9,627,942 5,681,990 20,270,504 Total Invested Capital 1,012,776,335 20,530,653 45,628,147 15,898,431 Index EBITDA 169,269,757 5,399,647 3,750,257 8,979,429 EBIT 72,359,135 2,154,219-472,794 2,814,740 Revenue 1,540,261,374 46,215,366 46,974,336 81,136,524 Net Operating Asset 1,154,727,207 30,418,671 42,325,909 55,838,896 Multiple EBITDA Multiple 60 38 122 18 EBIT Multiple 140 95-965 56 Revenue Multiple 07 04 10 02 Net Operating Asset Multiple 09 07 11 03 PER (High) - - - - PER (Low) - - - - PER (FY End) - - - - Multiple Selection EBITDA Multiple Selected 59 50
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (2) Historical Multiple Valuation Reference 199612 199712 1998 199912 200012 200112, 1996 Multiple Historical Multiple 51
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) 7 ( 5 ) (1) 1) DCF 12 7 Value of Operating Free Cash Flow FCF 200212 32,886,727 09131 30,028,820 200312 21,953,294 07813 17,152,728 200412 31,196,596 06686 20,857,229 200512 45,544,180 05721 26,055,427 200612 44,351,682 04895 21,711,573 200712 46,030,415 04189 19,281,552 200812 46,351,964 03584 16,614,265 200912 43,089,125 03067 13,215,895 201012 42,889,176 02624 11,256,218 201112 43,685,069 02246 9,810,558 44,351,682 13316 59,059,118 245,043,384 2) Market Multiple EBITDA * Multiple = 45,306,196 * 59 = 267,306,556 3) Historical Multiple (2) DCF Market Multiple Historical Multiple 1 : TIC 245,043,384 267,306,556 2 : NOA 35,352,301 35,352,301 3 (1+2) : FV 280,395,685 302,658,857 ( : ) (3) ( :, ) DCF Market Multiple Historical Multiple 1 : FV 280,395,685 302,658,857 2 : IBD 59,911,000 59,911,000 3 (1 2) : EV 220,484,685 242,747,857 4 19,354,573 19,354,573 5 (3 4) 11,392 12,542 52
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) EVA 1, 2 5, 3 EVA(EP), 4 WACC WACC DCF WACC EVA 200112 (Latest) 200212 200312 200412 200512 200612 8,799,655 17,501,740 30,803,596 30,546,543 30,273,291 322 703 1259 1251 1321 46,071,288 42,009,027 41,258,276 41,191,997 38,662,660 273,178,499 249,091,428 244,639,874 244,246,873 229,249,236 1686 1686 1686 1686 1686-37,271,633-24,507,286-10,454,681-10,645,454-8,389,370 08557 07323 06266 05362 04588-88,780,766-31,894,261-17,945,826-6,551,083-5,708,219-3,849,461 273,178,499-22,831,915 184,397,733 35,352,301 219,750,034 59,911,000 159,839,034 19,354,573 8,258 DCF Multiple, 11,392 12,542 EVA, 8,258, ROIC 322%~1321%, 5 WACC, WACC (ROIC),, ROIC NOPLAT IC, IC, 53
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) < 2> A 2004 100, 100, 30, 20, A?, A 2004 100, 20, 10, 5, 25%, EBITDA multiple?, 2003 IC 100, 2004 IC 150, 2004 ROIC? 20%,? 54
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) < 3> S A : 90 : 50 ( ) DCF : 100 Multiple : 50 : 10 : 50 ( : 30 ) : 100,000 Q, Q DCF Q Multiple Q 50% 40,000,? ( ) Q ( ) Q, 50,? ( ) Q, 30,? ( ) 55
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) < 4> DCF Market Multiple Historical Multiple 1,700 700 200 (+) 300 = 2,000 1,000 500 (-) 0 = 2000 1,000 500 1,000,000 = 200,000 100,000 50,000 50,000, 2, 50,000 1,000,000 100,000 (10%) 2 1 30%??? 56
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) VIII 1 NOA, IBD ( 1 ) (1) Balance Sheet (,%) 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 200312 200406 17,435,446 19,804,968 3,225,974 4,929,767 13,970,698 19,815,404 13,063,032 3,044,340 931,771 23,930 219,876 575,818 0 20,720 0 0 0 40,000 0 0 0 68,724,527 72,133,873 48,528,707 30,064,482 7,675,398 7,853,219 11,580,658 91,932,921 91,086,172 41,553,718 40,536,593 26,094,094 14,253,981 18,387,988 181,137,234 183,956,784 93,332,329 75,790,718 48,316,008 41,922,604 43,052,398 39,128,537 39,835,032 15,437,272 14,600,714 14,444,209 16,940,656 19,364,753 17,435,856 1,649,940 1,535,208 1,301,455 1,092,630 1,150,005 1,215,524 * 14,710,301 642,450 642,450 642,450 642,450 642,450 642,450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56,564,393 41,484,972 16,972,480 15,902,169 15,536,839 18,090,661 20,580,277 237,701,627 225,441,756 110,304,809 91,692,887 63,852,847 60,013,265 63,632,675 32,915,434 41,260,478 39,327,150 7,660,612 3,486,641 4,198,484 6,489,142 0 3,486,900 3,503,961 0 0 0 0 72,000 12,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17,504,008 4,878,594 10,680,365 22,450,148 16,793,206 6,989,809 8,417,457 50,491,442 49,637,972 53,511,476 30,110,760 20,279,847 11,188,293 14,906,599 63,409,766 45,194,241 61,962,744 0 0 0 0 156,616,524 122,688,925 109,792,274 0 0 0 0 2,018,037 2,532,234 2,278,650 1,264,172 1,112,182 77,120 49,402 0 592,603-1 56,290,876 0-1 -1 222,044,327 171,008,003 174,033,667 57,555,048 1,112,182 77,119 49,401 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 272,535,769 220,645,975 227,545,144 87,665,809 21,392,030 11,265,413 14,956,001 12,000,000 7,008,000 7,908,000 7,908,000 44,455,433 44,455,433 44,455,433 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-45,888,287-714,652-125,051,826-17,739,202-1,993,171 4,338,908 4,263,388-945,855-1,497,567-96,508 13,858,280-1,444-46,488-42,147-34,834,142 4,795,781-117,240,334 4,027,078 42,460,818 48,747,853 48,676,674 OK OK -1 OK -1-1 OK Income Statement (,%) 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 200312 200406 144,351,867 152,220,067 98,973,295 75,171,344 27,697,757 44,350,639 22,142,868 131,859,885 124,090,709 102,505,134 73,901,552 41,765,376 33,242,906 18,715,404 12,491,982 28,129,358-3,531,839 1,269,792-14,067,619 11,107,733 3,427,464 9,169,038 5,594,372 6,445,497 3,095,271 5,177,581 4,037,574 2,921,374 3,322,944 22,534,986-9,977,336-1,825,479-19,245,200 7,070,159 506,090 4,990,751 6,110,190 1,519,427 4,652,937 1,469,402 1,107,890 431,546 34,732,864 25,633,481 20,846,510 5,047,926 7,815,660 249,353 0 15,007,841 5,566,252 27,028,078 1,944,148 8,879,773 484,853 0 2,996,117 1,449,782 13,253,906 19,394,688 6,056,475 1,111,763 124,055-44,423,127-4,004,339-69,586,403-23,559,304-40,527,706 6,332,080 813,581 2,254,375 39,568,777 8,723,181 130,871,930 34,753,125 0 0 21,133,340 437,942 51,798,759 0 0 0 0-63,302,092 35,126,496-112,661,981 107,312,626-5,774,581 6,332,080 813,581 0 11,239,717 7,111,672 0 0 0 0-63,302,092 23,886,779-119,773,653 107,312,626-5,774,581 6,332,080 813,581 703,330 455,395 379,452 237,630 209,206 62,917 51,254 57
Valuation (DCF Multiple ) (2) Valuation Reference Free Cash Flow (,%) 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 200312 200406 3,322,944 22,534,986-9,977,336-1,825,479-19,245,200 7,070,159 506,090 15,007,841 5,566,252 27,028,078 1,944,148 8,879,773 484,853 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT -11,684,897 16,968,734-37,005,414-3,769,627-28,124,973 6,585,306 506,090 0 11,239,717 7,111,672 0 0 0 0 ( ) 0 32-6 0 0 0 0 0 8,202,158-1,315,915 0 0 0 0 0 1,491,229 740,727 0 0 0 0 0 17,950,646 5,055,030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NOPLAT -11,684,897-981,912-42,060,444-3,769,627-28,124,973 6,585,306 506,090 703,330 455,395 379,452 237,630 209,206 62,917 51,254 15,007,841 5,566,252 27,028,078 1,944,148 8,879,773 484,853 0 4,026,274 5,039,735-14,652,914-1,587,849-19,035,994 7,133,076 557,344 4,521,128 11,302,419-49,131,797-52,876,846 38,281,969-1,050,822 4,170,858 367,052-15,330,521 264,720 3,877 381 120,292 116,773 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-32,563 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,855,617-4,028,102-48,867,077-52,872,969 38,282,350-930,530 4,287,631 Free Cash Flow -829,343 9,067,837 34,214,163 51,285,120-57,318,344 8,063,606-3,730,287 4,990,751 4,155,062 1,615,339 4,652,937 1,469,402 1,107,890 431,546 2,996,117 985,883 14,090,545 19,394,688 6,056,475 1,111,763 124,055 2,254,375 39,568,777 8,723,181 130,871,930 34,753,125 0 0 21,133,340 437,942 51,798,759 0 0 0 0-17,713,674 51,367,851-21,336,621 167,415,299-27,152,292 8,059,733-3,422,796 Valuation Reference 199812 199912 200012 200112 200212 200312 200406 TIC/EBITDA Multiple EV/EBITDA Multiple (3) NOA, IBD 13,063,032 20,720 19,364,753 32,448,505 0 0 0 0 0 0 58