저숙련외국인력유입의경제적영향분석 김정호

정책연구시리즈 2009-15 저숙련외국인력유입의 경제적영향분석 김정호

저숙련외국인력유입의경제적영향분석 2009. 12. 김정호

발간사.,,.,. 1990 2 2000 30, 2009 70.,. 2004. 2005.,. 2005.,

....,,,.. 2009 12

목 차 발간사 요약 1 제 1 장서론 5 제 2 장외국인력정책및유입의현황 8 제 1 절외국인력정책 8 제 2 절외국인력유입현황 18 제3장이론적논의 29 제1절외국인력유입과내국인의경제적성과 29 제2절선행연구와의차별성 31 제3절가설 33 제4장실증분석 34 제1절통계모형 34 제2절자료설명 39 제3절추정결과 48 제 5 장결론 63 참고문헌 67 부록 69

표목차 < 표 2-1> 체류자격별외국인력의규모 (2009년 9월 30일기준 ) 19 < 표 2-2> 연도별취업자수와외국인력의규모 21 < 표 2-3> 연도별외국인력의규모와특성 21 < 표 2-4> 연도별외국인력도입계획 22 < 표 2-5> 고용허가제를통한외국인력도입규모의산업별구성 23 < 표 2-6> 연도별외국인근로자취업교육대상자수 26 < 표 2-7> 연도별 체류자격별저숙련외국인근로자수 ( 합법체류자 ) 26 < 표 2-8> 연도별 산업별고용허가외국인근로자수 ( 합법체류자 ) 28 < 표 4-1> 외국인근로자변화율계수부호에따른해석 38 < 표 4-2> 취업자대비고용보험피보험자비율 40 < 표 4-3> 고용허가체류인원과고용보험피보험자수 (2005년말기준 ) 42 < 표 4-4> 산업별고용보험피보험자대비외국인근로자비율 44 < 표 4-5> 근로자표본 (N=158,805) 45 < 표 4-6> 근로자-근로이력 (spell) 표본 (N=183,408) 46 < 표 4-7> 근로자-월표본 (N=1,770,913) 48 < 표 4-8> 실직및이직이행기본모형추정결과 ( 사업장단위 ) 49 < 표 4-9> 실직및이직이행기본모형추정결과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 53 < 표 4-10> 실직및이직이행의선형확률모형추정결과 ( 사업장단위 ) 55 < 표 4-11> 실직및이직이행의선형확률모형추정결과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 55 < 표 4-12> 산업별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장단위 ) 57 < 표 4-13> 산업별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 58 < 표 4-14> 교육수준별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장단위 ) 60 < 표 4-15> 교육수준별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 61

그림목차 [ 그림 2-1] 일반외국인근로자취업절차도 15 [ 그림 2-2] 고용특례자취업절차도 17 [ 그림 4-1] 고용보험외국인피보험자수추이 40

요약 20. 1990 2 2009 70. 90%..,,.,.,,. 2003,.

. 2004 8 2005,...,. 10% 0.12~0.24%.,.,.,,,.,.,.,., 2005.

.,.....,, 2006.,,.,.

제 1 장서론 1980., 1990 2 2000 30, 2009 70..,,.,....

,.. (2004). (2006).., (Longhi et al.[2008]).,,. 2003,,. 2004 2005.. 2005..,

.,. 2005,.. 2. 3. 4,. 5,.

제 2 장외국인력정책및유입의현황 제 1 절외국인력정책 1. 국제이주 (International Migration) 의분류 1). (discretionary) (non-discretionary)..,,. (The Geneva Convention on Refugees), (The Nordic Passport Union), (The Treaty of Rome in the European Union), (The North American Free Trade Agreement)., (Demand-driven) (Supply-driven).. 1) OECD, International Migration Outlook, 2009, pp.95~97.

,.,,.,,,.,.,,,,,,,,.., (temporary) (permanent)..,,..,,..,,,,,.,

. (level of skill) (qualification),.. OECD, (OECD[2007]).,.,,..,,,.,. (D-3, E-8), (E-9), (H-2),,,,,,,. (E1), (E2), (E3), (E4), (E5), (E6), (E7). (2009). 2)

2. 저숙련외국인력도입제도가. 제도의변천. 1980 3D 1991 11, 1993 11 ( ).,.,,,.. 2000 4., 2002 12. 3) 2003 8 2004 8,. 2) (2006).,,,,,,,,,. 3) (F-1-4) 2, 2004 7, 2006 1,,.

, 2007 1. 2007 3 (H-2). 4). <Box 1> 외국인력도입제도의변천 < 고용허가제실시이전 > - 1991. 11. - 1993. 11. - 2000. 4. 1. ( 2 + 1 ) - 2002. 12. 6., < 고용허가제실시, 산업연수생제와병행 > - 2003. 8. 16. - 2004. 8. 17., < 고용허가제로일원화, 산업연수생제폐지 > - 2007. 1. 1. - 2007. 3. 4. (H-2) 나. 고용허가제 3D, 4) (H-2) 5, 1 3.,.

.., ( : ). 5) (MOU),. 6). 7) 7. 8)9), 3., 3.. 5) ( :, ). 6) 2009 9 (MOU),,,,,,,,,,,,,, 15. 7) : (1) 18, (2), (3) ( 11 ), (4) (2005 8 ). 8) 2009,,, (, ), (,, ). 9) : (1) 2, (2) 5, (3) (, ).

. 15. 10) 1, 3. 11), 3. 4 ( ) 3.,,. 300.. 다. 방문취업제 2002 11. 10),, 20,,,,,, 6. 11) (2009. 10. 9) 3 ( 9 ). 3 1 2 ( 18 2).

[ 그림 2-1] 일반외국인근로자취업절차도 : (http://www.eps.go.kr/wem/kh/index.jsp).. 8 4 30 (F-1-4). 2,

, 2004 7, 2006 1,,. 2004 8 (F-1-4) (E-9). 2007 3 (H-2),.,. 25 (H-2) 5, 1 3. 12). (H-2). 7. 13) 3 12) (2009. 10. 9) 3 1 2 ( 18 2). 13) 2009,,, (, ), ( 24,, ).

[ 그림 2-2] 고용특례자취업절차도 : (http://www.eps.go.kr/wem/kh/index.jsp)... 14) 1, 10. 15) 14), ( 27 3 ). 15) 25.

1. 전체외국인력 제 2 절외국인력유입현황... (C-4), (D-3), (D-8), (E), (F-14), (H-2),.... (2008).,. 16), 2009 9 1,149, 84% ( 2-1 ). 16).,, (F-2),.,., (2008), (D-2)., (2008),,.

< 표 2-1> 체류자격별외국인력의규모 (2009 년 9월 30일기준 ) ( : ) 1,149,493 966,689 182,804 691,698 (A) 508,894 (B+C) 182,804 576,040 457,795 (C) 118,245 573,453 (A) 508,894 (B) 64,559 532,607 470,259 62,348 (C-4) 800 487 313 (D-3) 14,280 1,460 12,820 (D-8) 7,981 7,310 671 (E10) 4,717 3,650 1,067 (E-8) 12,393 175 12,218 (E-9-1) 19,153 12 19,141 (E9-2~E9-7) 164,109 152,818 11,291 (E9A~E9I) 735 3 732 (F-14) 1,110 2 1,108 (H-2) 307,329 304,342 2,987 40,846 38,635 2,211 (E-1) 2,096 2,077 19 (E-2) 22,723 22,588 135 (E-3) 2,025 2,009 16 (E-4) 186 181 5 (E-5) 532 515 17 (E-6) 4,562 3,203 1,359 (E-7) 8,722 8,062 660 : (E-9-1) 2003. :,.

573, 118. 692, 60%. < 2-1>. 93%, 94%. (H-2) (E9-2~E9-7) 58% 31%,., (E-2) 56%, (E-7) (E-6). < 2-2> 2000 307 2009 9 692. 1.46% 2.91% 10 2. < 2-3>. 2000 62%. 2000 66.8% 2002 79.7% 2003 37.0% 2009 9 26.4%. 2000 46.8% 2009 9 82.9%. E1~E7, 2000 87.6% 2003 93%.

< 표 2-2> 연도별취업자수와외국인력의규모 ( : ) (%) 2000 21,042 307 1.46 2001 21,628 352 1.63 2002 22,052 387 1.75 2003 22,096 417 1.89 2004 22,495 467 2.08 2005 22,699 429 1.89 2006 22,989 540 2.35 2007 23,257 656 2.82 2008 23,245 705 3.03 2009. 9 23,805 692 2.91 : 2009 12, 12. :, ;,. < 표 2-3> 연도별외국인력의규모와특성 ( ) ( ) (%) (%) (%) (%) 2000 491 307 62.5 66.8 46.8 87.6 2001 567 352 62.1 77.4 42.2 85.8 2002 629 387 61.5 79.7 41.5 84.9 2003 679 417 61.5 37.0 78.5 93.2 2004 751 467 62.2 44.9 73.6 93.7 2005 747 429 57.3 47.7 75.4 92.3 2006 910 540 59.3 39.3 78.0 93.1 2007 1,066 656 61.5 34.1 79.4 93.6 2008 1,159 705 60.9 28.4 81.8 93.5 2009. 9 1,149 692 60.2 26.4 82.9 92.9 :. :,.

2. 고용허가제를통해입국한저숙련외국인력가. 외국인력도입계획. < 2-4>, 2004 79, 25, 16, 38. 2008 132 2009 34. 2006.,,,,, 2004 41.5% 60% 2009 67.6%. 2004 < 표 2-4> 연도별외국인력도입계획 ( : ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 25,000 14,300 34,750 49,600 72,000 17,000 16,000 3,700 38,050 60,000 60,000 17,000 38,000 26,000 32,200 - - - 79,000 44,000 105,000 109,600 132,000 34,000 : 2005,. :,.

< 표 2-5> 고용허가제를통한외국인력도입규모의산업별구성 ( : %) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 41.5 66.7 60.0 63.2 58.2 67.6 43.9 16.7 7.8 13.6 13.6 5.9 4.9 5.6 2.7 3.3 3.8 5.9 - - 3.4 1.1 0.9 2.9 9.8 11.1 26.0 18.8 23.5 17.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 :,. 43.9% 2005 16.7% 10% 2009 5.9%. 2004 9.8% 2009 17.6%. 4%, 2006 2%. < 1> < 2>,.. 2004 300 80, 2008. 300 SOC,,, SOC, 2008. 17) 17) 2008,.

2005, 2006, 2008. 2004, 2006. 2006,.. 2004 300, 2006 300 SOC,,, SOC, 2008. 2004, 6 2005, 2006 4, 2007 12, 2008 3., < 3>. 2004, 50 50%. 2005 50%. 18) 1,. 5 10, 1. 2004 18) 10 5.

10, 2006 20. 2 4, 7. 나. 저숙련외국인력유입현황.,.,. (orientation) 20..,. < 2-6>, 2004 14 41. 2005.,. < 2-7>. 2004 3 2009 9 153., 2007 (H-2).

< 표 2-6> 연도별외국인근로자취업교육대상자수 ( : ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3,163 31,929 28,918 29,506 43,896 11,312 31,050 92,589 89,718 105,772 14,475 62,979 121,507 119,224 149,668 :. (2007 2 ) (H-2) (2007 3 ). : ;. < 표 2-7> 연도별 체류자격별저숙련외국인근로자수 ( 합법체류자 ) ( : ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009. 9 (E-92~E-97) (E-9A ~ E-9K) (F-14) (D-3) 3,096 33,426 58,236 130,642 156,404 152,818 2,690 18,750 55,241 3,327 6 3 (H-2) 0 0 0 228,448 298,003 304,342 19,258 52,043 84,055 6,522 11 2 36,530 38,272 44,000 6,299 2,305 1,460 61,574 142,491 241,532 375,238 456,729 458,625 257,564 224,330 327,887 432,143 504,683 508,894 467,405 428,584 539,875 655,607 705,172 691,698 :., 2009 9. :,.

2004 22 2009 9 304 2. 2004 37 2006 44, 2007 2009 9 1., 2004 62 2009 9 459 7, 23.9% 90.1%. 2004. (E-92~E-97) E-9A~E-9K. (H-2). 2006. < 2-8>. 2004 3 2006 57, 60%. 2004 1 2006 18, 17%. 2004 1 2006 21, 3 20%. 2004 2006 3%, 1%.

< 표 2-8> 연도별 산업별고용허가외국인근로자수 ( 합법체류자 ) ( : ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009. 9 (E-92) 3,061 33,018 57,287 119,922 139,696 135,842 (E-9F) 0 0 9,530 929 1 1 (E-93) 1 72 88 6,027 8,613 8,245 (E-9D) 1,145 7,443 18,217 11 1 1 (E-94) 33 296 792 3,332 6,051 6,922 (E-9G) 0 0 548 39 0 0 (E-95) 1 1 0 1,271 1,940 1,678 (E-9H) 0 0 13 0 0 0 (E-9A) 1,310 9,270 21,285 1,868 4 1 (E-96) 0 39 69 84 87 116 (E-9K) 0 0 3 0 0 0 (E-97) 0 0 0 6 17 15 (E-9J) 0 0 20 0 0 0 (E-9I) 0 0 139 17 0 0 (E-9E) 0 18 66 6 0 0 (E-9C) 175 1,670 4,856 400 0 0 (E-9B) 60 349 564 57 0 0 5,786 52,176 113,477 133,969 156,410 152,821 :., 2009 9. :,.

제 3 장이론적논의 제 1 절외국인력유입과내국인의경제적성과.. 19).,,,.,.,, (surplus). 20),,.,, 0. 19). Borjas(1999). 20),.

,. 21) (skilled) (unskilled)..,,..,,.,.. 22),.. 23),... 21). 22). 23).

..,. 제 2 절선행연구와의차별성 (Borjas et al.[1997]; Card[2001]; Angrist and Kugler [2003]; Dustman et al.[2005] ). Borjas(1999).,. 2009 9 30%, 15 21% 24%..,.,,. (Instrumental Variable Method). (Altonji

and Card[1991]; Card[2001] ). (variation),.. Malchow- Møller et al.(2009). 24) ( [2006]) ( [2004])..., (Longhi et al.[2008]). (2004). (2003). (2006) 1997 2001., ( : ) 24). 3.

. 2004 8 2005 12. 제 3 절가설 Malchow-Møller et al.(2009).,., (displacement). (replacement).. :. -1:. -2: ( ). :.,..,.

제 4 장실증분석 제 1 절통계모형. (duration model).,. (competing risks model) (Sueyoshi[1992]). (discrete time),.. ( ) ( ). (random variable) ( ). (employment spell), ( ; failure time)

( min )., (hazard). Pr for (1) (1). 25),,,.,, (social network).,. (employment spell).. (censored). (likelihood)... (2) 25).

(2) (index function). (joint cumulative distribution function),. (3). (4) (hazard function) (probit). (5) (6) (5) (6),, (baseline hazard). (3).. ( )..

( ).. 2~3,. (7) (8) ( )., 2....,. < 4-1>..,

< 표 4-1> 외국인근로자변화율계수부호에따른해석 ( ) + ( / ) - ( ) + ( / ) - ( ) (9)~(10). (9) (10).,. Malchow-Møller et al.(2009)., ( ),...., Malchow-Møller et al.(2009).

1. 고용보험원자료 제 2 절자료설명. 4 1998 10 1. 26)27)28) 2003 32.6% 2009 9 41.5%. 49.3% 59.2%, 57.8% 66.9%.,,.. 2. 고용보험상의외국인근로자 [ 4-1]. 2004 5 26) 7 5566 (1998. 9. 17) 7. 27) : (1),, 4, (2) (2004 2 ) 200, (3). 28) : (1) 65 (, ), (2) 1 60 (1 15 ),, 3 1, (3) (, 2008 9 22 ),, 3, (4), (5).

< 표 4-2> 취업자대비고용보험피보험자비율 ( :, %) 2003. 12 22,096 14,624 12,458 7,203 32.6 49.3 57.8 2004. 12 22,495 15,109 12,852 7,577 33.7 50.1 59.0 2005. 12 22,699 15,273 13,125 8,064 35.5 52.8 61.4 2006. 12 22,989 15,722 13,577 8,537 37.1 54.3 62.9 2007. 12 23,257 16,104 13,926 9,063 39.0 56.3 65.1 2008. 12 23,245 16,189 14,150 9,385 40.4 58.0 66.3 2009. 9 23,805 16,687 14,757 9,874 41.5 59.2 66.9 :,, 15,. :, ;,. [ 그림 4-1] 고용보험외국인피보험자수추이 명 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2004.1. 2004.7. 2005.1. 2005.7. 2006.1. 2006.7. 2007.1. 2007.7. 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 백분율 외국인 근로자수 전체 피보험자 대비 비율 :.

2004 8. 2005 12 39, 2006 1. 2004 1 0.06% 8 0.28%. 2005 1 0.36%, 2005 5 0.31% 2005 12 0.48%. 2006 1 0.13%, 2007 12 0.17%. 2006 1. 29) 2004 8 2005 12., 2004 2005,,. 2005 < 4-3>. 72.3%. 2005 12,. 2004 7 2005 12 200, 67.6%. 67.6~72.3%. 29) 3.

< 표 4-3> 고용허가체류인원과고용보험피보험자수 (2005 년말기준 ) (A) (B) ( :, %) ( /A~B/A) 1. 296 214 67.6~72.3 2. 33,018 27,924 77.7~84.6 3. 7,515 499 4.8~6.6 4. 9,270 5,500 5. 39 311 6. 349 1,236 7., 1,688 369 8. 0 1,455 58.2~78.2 9. 1 7 10. - 19 11., - 4 12. - 15 13. - 273 14. - 110 15., - 70 16. - 374 17. - 198 18., - 76 19. - 2 20. - 5 52,176 38,661 : 8.,,,,. 2005 (A) (2004 7 2005 12 ) ( ) 2005 (A) (B). :, ;,.

77.7~84.6%., 4.8~6.6%.,,,,... 2004 6 2005,.,,,, 2005 58.2~78.2%..,,,,,,. 300,. 30) < 4-4>. 2005 12 30) 300 80,.

< 표 4-4> 산업별고용보험피보험자대비외국인근로자비율 ( : %) 2004. 6 2004. 12 2005. 6 2005. 12 1. 0.080 0.544 0.502 0.935 2. (300 ) 0.115 0.965 0.879 1.415 3. 0.084 0.211 0.229 0.308 31. 0.375 1.694 2.049 3.052 32. 0.037 0.054 0.054 0.061 33. 0.074 0.099 0.103 0.115 34. 0.042 0.118 0.119 0.140 35. 0.076 0.171 0.150 0.170 0.097 0.526 0.492 0.759 :.,. 2004 6 0.38% 2005 12 3.05% 8. 12 2005 12 1.41% 0.94%. 2004 6 0.04~0.08% 2005 12 0.06~0.17%. ( ) 2004 6 2005 12 3 2. 3. 분석대상표본의기초통계 2004 8 2005 12 3% (employment spell). 31) 18 31), ( ) 2.3%,

< 표 4-5> 근로자표본 (N=158,805) 0.3406 0.4739 0 1 1968 11 1936 1990 : 0.0898 0.2860 0 1 : 0.5113 0.4999 0 1 : 0.1328 0.3394 0 1 : 0.2660 0.4419 0 1 1.3350 0.6379 1 11 :. 65 5.,. < 4-5>, 15 9 34%, 1968. 51%,,, 27%, 13%, 9%. 16 1.34 3 1. < 4-6>. 18 3, 27.4%, 6.4%. 9.7., 41.8%, 1.8~2.6%.

< 표 4-6> 근로자 -근로이력 (spell) 표본 (N=183,408) : 0.2742 0.4461 0 1 : 0.0643 0.2454 0 1 ( ) 9.6667 5.7262 1 16 1: 0.0049 0.0699 0 1 2: 0.4177 0.4932 0 1 3: 0.1423 0.3494 0 1 4:, 0.0315 0.1745 0 1 5: 0.1058 0.3076 0 1 6: 0.2477 0.4317 0 1 7:, 0.0501 0.2182 0 1 1: 0.0243 0.1540 0 1 2: 0.0356 0.1852 0 1 3: 0.0826 0.2753 0 1 4: 0.2829 0.4504 0 1 5: 0.1327 0.3392 0 1 6: 0.0029 0.0538 0 1 7: 0.1653 0.3715 0 1 8: 0.0544 0.2268 0 1 9: 0.2192 0.4137 0 1 :. 0.5%. 57.7%. 24.7%, 14.2% 10.6%.,

28.3%. 21.9% 16.5%. 13.3% 8.3%, 5 88.3%. (discrete), 1. < 4-7>. 177, 2.8%, 0.7%., 36. 1 1 6, 507 65. 290, 26. 0.4%, 0.2%. 32) 32) ( :, ).,.

< 표 4-7> 근로자 -월표본 (N=1,770,913) 0.0284 0.1661 0 1 0.0067 0.0814 0 1 35.8345 34.6690 1 124 507 1,736 1 16,469 0.0036 0.0258 0 1 0.0002 0.0095-1 1 290 1,026 1 10,358 0.0022 0.0246 0 1 0.0001 0.0100-1 1 0.0206 0.0065 0 0 0.0048 0.0246 0 0 :. 제 3 절추정결과 < 4-8>. (hazard function) 1,,.,

< 표 4-8> 실직및이직이행기본모형추정결과 ( 사업장단위 ) 1(Probit) 2(Probit) 3(Probit IV) -0.0881-0.3517 0.1044 0.0870 3.4150-11.0730 (0.1909) (0.3260) (0.1954) (0.3990) (22.8433) (42.3979) 0.3923 *** 0.3577 *** 0.5776 *** 0.542 1*** 23.4129 ** 36.6531 * (0.0719) (0.1228) (0.0742) (0.1349) (10.9627) (21.0788) -3.0443 *** -3.992 *** -3.2363 *** -4.3398 *** (0.0169) (0.0274) (0.1324) (0.2638) 0.2617 *** 0.5730 *** (0.068) (0.0693) -282,666.02-265,760.32 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 4( ) 5( ) 6( IV) -0.0055-0.0081 0.0166 0.0056 0.6259 0.7984 (0.0132) (0.0067) (0.0131) (0.0066) (1.3592) (0.6873) 0.0326 *** 0.0070 *** 0.0634 *** 0.0264 *** 1.3041 ** 0.1731 (0.0049) (0.0025) (0.0049) (0.0025) (0.6522) (0.3431) -0.2693 *** -0.1642 *** -0.2860 *** -0.1670 *** (0.0016) (0.0008) (0.0079) (0.0043) 0.015 0.003 0.029 0.025 0.015 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 :,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :.

.. ( ),.. < 4-8> 2. 1 2,.,. 1 2..,.. (Altonji and Card [1991]; Card[2001]). < 4-8> 3. (computational burden)

. Newey 2 (Newey[1987]).,, (separate estimation) (joint estimation) ( 4 ). 3,,,.... 2,,. < 4-8> 4, 5, 6. < 4-8> ( 4 ). 1 86, 121...,

, 44, 40.,,.,,... < 4-9>. 1 4. 2 5., 2 5, 10%., 10% 2 0.12%, 5 0.24%. 3 6,,. < 4-8> < 4-9>,,.,

< 표 4-9> 실직및이직이행기본모형추정결과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 1(Probit) 2(Probit) 3(Probit IV) 0.0879-0.9212 ** 0.2494 * -0.4041 22.5681 5.4037 (0.1418) (0.4072) (0.1370) (0.5658) (39.1061) (73.2711) 0.4956 *** 0.3902 *** 0.5756 *** 0.5455 *** 39.1823 ** 59.5432 * (0.0703) (0.1199) (0.0744) (0.1316) (17.2423) (32.9509) -3.0422 *** -3.9939 *** -3.1286 *** -4.1687 *** (0.0169) (0.0274) (0.0790) (0.1641) 0.2616 *** 0.5767 *** (0.0679) (0.0694) -282,637.29-265,747.30 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 4( ) 5( ) 6( IV) 0.0084-0.0190 *** 0.0235 * -0.0092 2.0702 1.6227 (0.0126) (0.0065) (0.0125) (0.0064) (2.3284) (1.1798) 0.0438 *** 0.0096 *** 0.0560 *** 0.0179 *** 2.2289 ** 0.4092 (0.0051) (0.0026) (0.0051) (0.0026) (1.0265) (0.5331) -0.2687 *** -0.1639 *** -0.2802 *** -0.1672 *** (0.0016) (0.0008) (0.0048) (0.0027) 0.015 0.003 0.029 0.025 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 :,,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :.

.,, (upper bound). (heterogeneity) 2. 2 26.2%, 95% 2 (77.6%) 3 (18.0%).,. 2,., 2. 2 < 4-10> < 4-11>. < 4-10>,,,. 2, 1. < 4-11> 1,

< 표 4-10> 실직및이직이행의선형확률모형추정결과 ( 사업장단위 ) 1(OLS) 2(Fixed-effect) -0.0265 0.0224-0.0433 0.0156 (0.0350) (0.0235) (0.0359) (0.0255) 0.0972 *** 0.0709 *** 0.0521 ** 0.1051 *** (0.0132) (0.0090) (0.0222) (0.0161) -0.3411 *** -0.3631 *** -0.3097 *** -0.3641 *** (0.0039) (0.0026) (0.0040) (0.0027) 0.025 0.060 0.034 0.071 ( ) 41,457 40,562 403,084 390,250 403,084 390,250 :,,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :. < 표 4-11> 실직및이직이행의선형확률모형추정결과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 1(OLS) 2(Fixed-effect) 0.0342-0.0243 0.0552* -0.0136 (0.0307) (0.0217) (0.0313) (0.0234) 0.0895 *** 0.0582 *** 0.1279 *** 0.0998 *** (0.0137) (0.0093) (0.0216) (0.0158) -0.3406 *** -0.3627 *** -0.3098 *** -0.3634 *** (0.0039) (0.0026) (0.0040) (0.0027) 0.025 0.060 0.034 0.072 ( ) 41,457 40,562 403,084 390,250 403,084 390,250 :,,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :.

,. 2 10%. 1 2,. 1 2,.,..,.. 0.5%. < 4-12>. 1,.,

< 표 4-12> 산업별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장단위 ) 1(Probit) -265,748.74 2( ) -0.0884 0.0711 0.0044 0.0054 (0.2233) (0.4169) (0.0140) (0.0070) 1.2136 *** 0.4247 0.1016 0.0032 (0.4181) (1.5446) (0.0685) (0.0348) 0.6800 *** 0.6462 *** 0.0712 *** 0.0303 *** (0.0794) (0.1450) (0.0052) (0.0026) -0.1194-0.1939 0.0093 0.0010 (0.2175) (0.4067) (0.0135) (0.0068) -3.0446 *** -3.9917 *** -0.2684 *** -0.1646 *** (0.0169) (0.0274) (0.0017) (0.0008) 0.5727 *** (0.0693) 0.029 0.025 1,751,892 1,713,588 1,751,892 1,713,588 :,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :. 10%, 0.65%... 2

< 표 4-13> 산업별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 1(Probit) 2( ) 0.2052-0.5491 0.0193-0.0112 * (0.1479) (0.6265) (0.0132) (0.0068) 0.5161 0.6943 0.0590 0.0101 (0.3824) (1.6698) (0.0379) (0.0204) 0.6502 *** 0.6369 *** 0.0627 *** 0.0211 *** (0.0798) (0.1407) (0.0055) (0.0028) 0.0890-0.2158 0.0151-0.0013 (0.2050) (0.4719) (0.0136) (0.0069) -3.0424*** -3.9939 *** -0.2678 *** -0.1643 *** (0.0169) (0.0274) (0.0017) (0.0008) 0.5769 *** (0.0695) -265,740.68 0.029 0.025 1,751,892 1,713,588 1,751,892 1,713,588 :,,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :.., < 4-13>, 2..

. < 4-12> < 4-13>,...,.. < 4-14>...,.,.,.. < 4-15> 1,.

< 표 4-14> 교육수준별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장단위 ) 1(Probit) 2( ) -0.4548-3.0200-0.0330-0.0157 (0.7216) (2.7374) (0.0461) (0.0232) 0.1380-0.1036 0.0196 0.0053 (0.2371) (0.5749) (0.0155) (0.0078) 0.3072-0.0848 0.0433-0.0297 (0.6699) (1.2700) (0.0464) (0.0234) 0.0586 1.2077 * 0.0140 0.0444 ** (0.4995) (0.7071) (0.0374) (0.0189) 0.7427 *** 0.3869 0.0725 *** 0.0204 ** (0.2698) (0.5695) (0.0166) (0.0084) 0.5377 *** 0.5238 *** 0.0626 *** 0.0268 *** (0.0884) (0.1642) (0.0059) (0.0030) 0.7618 *** 0.7715 * 0.0775 *** 0.0324 *** (0.2269) (0.3938) (0.0151) (0.0076) 0.5476 *** 0.4060 0.0515 *** 0.0241 *** (0.2093) (0.3282) (0.0133) (0.0067) -3.0456 *** -3.993 *** -0.2693 *** -0.1642 *** (0.0169) (0.0274) (0.0016) (0.0008) 0.5740 *** (0.0695) -265,756.64 0.029 0.025 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 :,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :.

< 표 4-15> 교육수준별외국인력유입의고용효과 ( 사업장직종단위 ) 1(Probit) 2( ) 0.8352 *** -1.2187 0.0553-0.0107 (0.2859) (2.2847) (0.0370) (0.0194) 0.0605-0.4517 0.0074-0.0083 (0.1849) (0.8051) (0.0144) (0.0073) 1.1159-1.9671 0.1508 ** -0.0976 *** (1.0636) (1.6975) (0.0588) (0.0304) 0.4424 1.1225 0.0567 0.0328 (0.3824) (1.1601) (0.0420) (0.0227) 0.3885 0.2126 0.0342 ** 0.0087 (0.2512) (0.6170) (0.0144) (0.0073) 0.6092 *** 0.5616 *** 0.0614 *** 0.0175 *** (0.0847) (0.1610) (0.0060) (0.0031) 0.6681 ** 0.6534 * 0.0812 *** 0.0440 *** (0.2860) (0.3486) (0.0193) (0.0098) 0.3228 0.4271 0.0216 0.0141 * (0.2656) (0.4064) (0.0169) (0.0085) -3.0433*** -3.9949 *** -0.2687 *** -0.1639 *** (0.0169) (0.0275) (0.0016) (0.0008) 0.5759 *** (0.0693) -265,741.78 0.029 0.025 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 :,,,,,,,.,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :.

10%, 0.38%.., 2,.

제 5 장결론. 2004 8 2005...,. 10% 0.12~0.24%.,. (10%).,

.. 2,..,.,,,.,.,.,.,,., 2005

..,....,,.,..,.,., 2006.,

.,.

참고문헌, :,, 2008 11 ( 47 ), pp.7~17.,,, 2007.,, 2009-04,, 2009.,,, 2002.,,, 2004,,, 2005.,,, 45, 2008, pp.27~38.,,, 2007.,,,, 2005.,,,, 5,, 2004.,,, 28 1, 2006, pp.95~116. Altonji, J. G. and D. Card, The Effect of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Less-Skilled Natives Immigration, J. M. Abowd and R. B. Freeman (eds.), Trade and the Labor Market, NBER, 1991, pp.201~234. Angrist, J. D. and A. Kugler, Protective or Counter-Productive? Labor Market Institutions and the Effect of Immigration on EU Natives, The Economic Journal 113, 2003, pp.f302~f331. Borjas, George J., The Economic Analysis of Immigration, in O. C. Ashenfelter and David Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3, 1999. Borjas, G. J., R. B. Freeman, and L. F. Katz, How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 1997, pp.1~90.

Brüker, Herbert and Elke J. Jahn, Migration and the Wage Curve: A Structural Approach to Measure the Wage and Employment Effects of Migration, IZA Discussion Paper No. 3423, 2008. Card, D., Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Market Impacts of Higher Immigration, Journal of Labor Economics 19(1), 2001, pp.22~64. Dustmann, C., F. Fabbri, and I. Preston, The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market, The Economic Journal 115(507), 2005, pp.f324~f341. Longhi, Simonetta, Peter Nijkamp, and Jacques Poot, Meta-Analysis of Empirical Evidence on the Labour Market Impacts of Immigration, IZA Discussion Paper No. 3418, 2008. Newey, W. K., Simultaneous Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables, Journal of Econometrics 36(3), 1987, pp.231~250. Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj, Jakob Roland Munch, and Jan Rose Skaksen, Do Immigrants Take the Jobs of Native Workers? IZA Discussion Paper No. 4111, 2009. OECD, International Migration Outlook: SOPEMI 2007 EDITION, OECD Publishing, 2007., International Migration Outlook: SOPEMI 2007 EDITION, OECD Publishing, 2009. Sueyoshi, Glenn T., Semiparametric Proportional Hazards Estimation of Competing Risks Models with Time-varying Covariates, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 51, 1992, pp.25~58.

부록 1. 고용허가제도입업종및규모 < 부표 1> 일반고용허가제도입업종변천 (6 ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-300 80 (2008 ),, - 300 SOC - - - SOC (, ) - -,, ( 6 3 2 0 2 ) - ( ) - (011) - (012) (51731) - - (014) - (05113) (05112) - (0521) - - - - (55111) : ( ) 2004~07 8, 2008 9. :,.

< 부표 2> 특례고용허가제도입업종 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-300 80 (2008 ),, - - - 300-300 SOC - - 300 - - - 300 SOC (, ) - - (5521, 5522) - (75922, 75923) - (86) - (90) - (93993) - (95) (2005 ) - (92211) - - (92212) - (63202) ( ) - (93121) - (51731) - (51205) - (51731) - (514) - (518) - (525) - (526) - (528) - (751) - (9222) - (93991) - (602) - (633) (2008 ) -, (38) - (97) - (55111, 55112)

< 부표 2> 의계속 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 - (011) - (012) - (014) - (05113) - (05112) - (0521) : ( ) 2004~07 8, 2008 9. :,.

< 부표 3> 산업별고용허용인원 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8 50 9 * 50% 50, 50% = x 1 * = ( ) x{12/ ( )} * 1 : 0.4~0.65 * 1 ( ) : 0.4~0.6 ( ) * 4 100 *, 10 5 * 15 5 * 15 1 0.4-5 10-1 9 5 20 10 : 2 4, 40% : 7 : 1) (3 ). 2) 2005 7 ( ), 2005 8. :,.

2. 다중위험모형 (competing risks model) 의유효성 (competing risks model) < 4>. 1 (Probit), 2. 2 < 4-8> 1. < 4> 1 2. 2 ( ),. ( ) ( ).

< 부표 4> 다중위험모형추정결과 ( 프로빗모형 ) 1( ) 2( ) : -0.1043-0.3554-0.0881-0.3517 (0.1829) (0.3175) (0.1909) (0.3260) : *** 0.3732 0.3479 *** 0.3923 *** 0.3577 *** (0.0656) (0.1189) (0.0719) (0.1228) /100 /100 : : : -0.0188 *** -0.0102 *** -0.0180 *** -0.0096 *** (0.0002) (0.0004) (0.0003) (0.0004) 0.0109 *** 0.0042 *** 0.0100 *** 0.0037 *** (0.0002) (0.0004) (0.0002) (0.0004) 0.0387 *** -0.0599 *** 0.0444 *** -0.0601 *** (0.0042) (0.0076) (0.0048) (0.0079) -0.0617 *** -0.0096 *** -0.0698 *** -0.0117 *** (0.0012) (0.0023) (0.0014) (0.0024) 0.0696 *** 0.0118 *** 0.0787 *** 0.0142 *** (0.0015) (0.0028) (0.0018) (0.0030) 0.0330 *** 0.0023 0.0357 *** 0.0034 (0.0079) (0.0139) (0.0089) (0.0146) -0.0718 *** 0.0468 *** -0.0801 *** 0.0464 *** (0.0096) (0.0166) (0.0109) (0.0174) -0.1400 *** 0.0430 *** -0.1544 *** 0.0427 *** (0.0090) (0.0154) (0.0101) (0.0161) -0.0295 *** -0.0088 *** -0.0330 *** -0.0103 *** (0.0013) (0.0022) (0.0014) (0.0023) 0.2885 *** (0.0076) 0.1983 *** (0.0157) 0.2617 *** (0.0680) -282,907.30-282,666.02 1,759,111 1,720,629 1,759,111 1,720,629 :,,. ( ) (Asymptotic standard errors). : *=10%, **=5%, ***=1%. :.