(Vol.7) 14.12.8( 월 )-14.12.12( 금 ) Analyst 윤재성 769-3362 js_yoon@daishin.com Weekly Monitor: 제품전반약세이나 PE/PP, MEG 마진은여전히견조 화학 : 제품전반약세이나 PE/PP, MEG 마진은여전히견조 납사하락 : 납사가격 543.5$/ 톤으로 WoW -41.3$/ 톤 (-7.1%) 하락. 유가하락영향 - 납사가격하락에따라 NCC 설비의 CTO 설비대비에틸렌원가경쟁력우위국면진입 (NCC: ~$/ 톤 vs. CTO: 1,~1,$/ 톤 ) - NCC 대비낮아진 CTO 원가경쟁력에따라향후중국 CTO 증설지연및취소가능성높아짐. 향후중국의에틸렌증설이대부분 CTO 중심이라는점을감안해볼때, 향후중국 CTO 증설취소및지연은역내에틸렌수급상황을더욱타이트하게하는요소로작용할듯 에틸렌 / 프로필렌하락 : 에틸렌 WoW -8$/ 톤, 프로필렌 -16$/ 톤. 연말을앞두고재고처리를위해일부다운스트림플랜트가동률이하향된영향 합성수지하락 : HDPE(-7$/ 톤 ), LDPE(-75$/ 톤 ), LLDPE(-55$/ 톤 ), PP(-75$/ 톤 ), PVC(-5$/ 톤 ), ABS(-8$/ 톤 ). PE/PP 마진은견조한수준을지속중 고무체인하락 : BD(-5$/ 톤 ), SBR(-4$/ 톤 ). 천연고무 (-44.5$/ 톤 ). BD 4주하락, SBR 5주하락. 천연고무는 4주하락 - 중국 Qingdao 고무재고하락세에주목 : 전체고무 / 천연고무재고연초이래최저이자, 3년래최저치까지하락 화섬원료하락 : PX(-79.5$/ 톤 ), PTA(-51$/ 톤 ), MEG(-75$/ 톤 ). 납사가격하락으로 MEG Spot 마진은견조한수준. 2년래최고치에근접 - 1 동절기대비의류수요에따른중국폴리에스터가동률상향 ( 현재 81% 수준 ) 2 중국 MEG 재고하락등을감안시가격은바닥권을통과중 정유 : 정제마진하락 - 복합정제마진 9.4$/bbl 기록하며전주대비 1.$/bbl 하락 그림 1. PE/PP 최근소폭하락했으나, 여전히견조한수준을유지중그림 2. MEG Spot 마진, 약 2 년래최고치에근접 ($/Ton) HDPE-Naphtha Spread PP-Naphtha Spread ($/Ton) MEG-Naphtha(Spot) - 12.6 12.12 13.6 13.12 14.6 14.1 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 - 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 214.12.15 1
1. Weekly News Update 날짜 제목 출처 관련업체 내용 Macro News 214/12/8 유로존 3 분기경제성장 률.8% 성장하며예상 치부합 각종언론 - 유로존 3 분기경제성장률.8% 성장하며예상치부합했으나전분기성장률인 1.4% 에 못미침. 총고정자본비가전분기에이어.2% 감소하며경제성장률의발목을잡은것 으로해석 214/12/9 중국 11 월무역수지, 사 상최대흑자기록 각종언론 - 중국의 11 월무역수지가유가와상품가격하락에따른예상치못한수입급감으로 544 억불가량의사상최대흑자를기록. 반면수출성장률은 4.7% 로블룸버그예상치 8% 에못미치면서둔화된모습 중국, 시진핑총리 New 214/12/1 Normal 정책발표 Petrochemical News 각종언론 - 중국경제공작회의서시진핑총리 'New Normal' 언급하며긍정적인중국경제성장발 언. 특히중국경제성장이안정화되었으며다양한분야에서성장의동력이되고있다고 발표. 수출과투자보다는내수에집중하는방향으로전망 - 동사합성고무제품 ' 폼라텍스 ', 산업통상자언부의세계일류상품인증받음 214/12/8 금호석유화학, ' 폼라텍스 ' 9번째세계일류상품추 Industry 가 전석유화학 업체 - 동재질은주로침대매트리스, 베개, 방석, 신발, 아스팔트도막방수, 화장품분첩, 특수분장, 기타플라스틱내충격보강제등으로여러분야에서폭넓은원료로이용 - 동사폼라텍스생산능력은연산 1만5천톤, 214년기준세계시장점유율 11% ( 세계 3위 ) 지위보유 미국에탄의에틸렌생산비용, 여전히납사의에 214/12/1 Industry 틸렌생산비용대비 2 cents 만큼높아 전석유화학 업체 - LyondellBasell 관계자는미국에탄의에틸렌생산비용이납사의에틸렌생산비용보다여전히 2 cents 만큼높다고언급 - 에탄을통한에틸렌생산비용은약 1 cents/lb, 납사를통한에틸렌생산비용은약 3 cents/lb 수준 - 최근원유가격급락이전에는납사를통한생산비용이 4-6 cents/lb 수준이었음 * 최근원유가격하락으로인해에탄대비납사의에틸렌원가경쟁력회복세진입 - 중국의 11 월자동차판매대수가전년대비 2.3% 증가, 전월대비 5.2% 증가한 21 만 중국 11월자동차판매, 214/12/11 전년대비 2.3% 증가 Industry 전석유화학 업체 대를기록 - 올1월부터 11월까지의총자동차판매는전년대비 6.1% 증가한 2,11만대를기록 * 중국자동차판매량지속적인증가세시현중 N/A N/A N/A 2
DAISHIN SECURITIES 2. Global Peer Performance & Valuation 그림 3. Global Peer Performance Industry Country Name Price % 1d % 1w % 1m % 3m % 6m % 1yr % YTD 52w High 52w Low CHEMICAL KOREA LG CHEM LTD 184, -1.3% -7.3% -9.1% -3.8% -33.3% -34.8% -38.6% 33, 172, LOTTE CHEMICAL CORP 156, -.6% -9.% -4.6% -8.2% -13.1% -32.3% -32.5% 238, 12, HANWHA CHEMICAL CORP 12, -.4% -3.9% -3.9% -22.8% -32.2% -39.5% -43.4% 22,45 1,55 KUMHO PETRO CHEMICAL CO LTD 78, 2.% -1.5% -1.4% 2.6% -8.7% -2.6% -17.6% 98, 67, KCC CORP 548, 5.6% 2.6% -2.5% -14.8% -14.2% 21.% 17.% 74, 447, HYOSUNG CORPORATION 68, 3.% -.3% 9.4% -15.6% 2.7% 3.% -2.1% 83, 58, SKC CO LTD 24, -1.4% -6.1% -5.2% -25.7% -26.4% -17.6% -18.8% 38, 23,55 KOLON INDUSTRIES INC 42, -3.8% -11.6% -8.5% -26.% -4.% -16.9% -21.9% 74, 42, CAPRO CORPORATION 2,775-6.9% -11.3% -7.5% -21.1% -3.% -53.6% -56.7% 6,47 2,42 KOREA PETROCHEMICAL IND CO 69, -2.3% -8.6% -9.1% -13.7% -.4% -18.6% -2.6% 87, 55, SAMSUNG FINE CHEMICALS CO 32,95 1.9% -1.3% -4.4% -17.5% -14.4% -25.4% -26.% 49, 28,35 HUCHEMS FINE CHEMICAL CORP 25,75-1.7% -4.3% 2.4% 7.1% 7.1% 9.1% 7.3% 29, 21, CHINA CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL-H 6-1.1% -8.5% -5.2% -23.6% -19.% -6.8% -4.7% 8.23 5.73 SINOPEC SHANGHAI PETROCHE-A 4 -.2% -8.3% 14.3% 4.1% 26.7% 28.7% 33.8% 4.69 2.81 SINOPEC YIZHENG CHEMICAL -A 5 -.2%.% 8.7% 61.9% 61.9% 38.5% 59.% 4.86 2.35 JAPAN SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO LTD 8,184.3% -3.6% 5.9% 21.9% 35.6% 39.2% 33.3% 8,529 5,267 MITSUI CHEMICALS INC 343 -.3% -3.7% 8.5% 9.9% 31.4% 34.5% 35.% 369 236 SUMITOMO CHEMICAL CO LTD 477-3.2% -4.% 15.8% 21.4% 24.5% 19.% 15.8% 518 333 MITSUBISHI CHEMICAL HOLDINGS 618.% -5.% 7.% 13.9% 46.1% 32.3% 27.1% 655 42 ASAHI KASEI CORP 1,7.2% -2.% 8.3% 22.8% 41.5% 33.5% 3.2% 1,117 653 SHOWA DENKO K K 162-9.5% -9.5% 5.9% 5.9% 18.2% 7.3% 8.7% 185 127 TOKUYAMA CORP 267 1.5% -.7% 7.2% -26.4% -9.8% -3.3% -33.1% 469 235 TAIWAN FORMOSA PLASTICS CORP 67-1.% -5.2% -1.% -1.7% -12.3% -14.9% -16.4% 8.7 65.4 FORMOSA CHEMICALS & FIBRE 65 -.9% -4.% -4.8% -8.8% -1.2% -23.2% -22.4% 85. 65. THAILAND IRPC PCL 3 -.7% -9.% -9.5% -9.5% -1.6% -13.6% -6.7% 3.76 3. INDIA RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD 882-2.6% -7.8% -9.% -13.1% -18.4% 2.% -1.4% 1,145.25 793.1 U.S.A DU PONT (E.I.) DE NEMOURS 69-3.2% -5.1% -2.% 7.1% 1.5% 15.1% 6.7% 73.53 59.35 DOW CHEMICAL CO/THE 43-5.8% -13.6% -15.6% -17.7% -17.3% 4.4% -2.4% 54.97 41.27 EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO 73-4.2% -9.9% -13.8% -12.6% -18.3% -.2% -1.1% 9.55 7.38 GERMANY BASF SE 69-4.2% -6.6% -.4% -1.3% -19.% -6.3% -1.9% 88.28 64.1 BAYER AG-REG 112-3.2% -7.1% 2.% 5.6% 8.% 17.% 9.7% 121 89 SAUDI SAUDI BASIC INDUSTRIES CORP 82.1% -13.6% -21.1% -39.% -29.8% -25.7% -26.9% 137 77 REFINING KOREA SK INNOVATION CO LTD 81, 1.% -5.6% -5.5% -1.6% -21.8% -4.9% -42.5% 143, 74, S-OIL CORP 44,15 -.1% -3.3% 8.1% -2.2% -21.7% -39.4% -4.3% 75, 37, GS HOLDINGS 39, -.6% -4.4% -1.4% -6.% -7.1% -27.9% -31.1% 58, 38, CHINA PETROCHINA CO LTD-A 9.6% -7.6% 19.4% 16.% 23.8% 17.6% 21.3% 1.67 7.45 CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL-H 6-1.1% -8.5% -5.2% -23.6% -19.% -6.8% -4.7% 8.23 5.73 CNOOC LTD 1.% -6.7% -13.3% -29.7% -27.4% -33.3% -3.2% 15.88 9.82 JAPAN COSMO OIL COMPANY LTD 159-1.2% -3.% -3.% -18.% -27.4% -15.4% -2.9% 225 158 SHOWA SHELL SEKIYU KK 986 -.1% -3.% 1.4% -1.8% -18.4% -1.4% -7.7% 1,225 87 TONENGENERAL SEKIYU KK 1,24 -.1% -2.1% 3.4% 6.6% 2.1% 7.1% 6.1% 1,55 835 IDEMITSU KOSAN CO LTD 1,963 -.9% -3.1% -4.9% -15.3% -9.% -13.% -18.% 2,462 1,963 TAIWAN FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORP 66-1.8% -3.8% -3.9% -11.% -12.9% -18.7% -19.7% 84. 65.7 INDIA BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LTD 668.7% -6.% -9.2% -2.3% 17.2% 95.2% 91.9% 785. 315. HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP 562-1.5% -1.3% 1.3% 13.9% 43.% 157.5% 136.9% 627.8 211.65 RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD 882-2.6% -7.8% -9.% -13.1% -18.4% 2.% -1.4% 1,145.25 793.1 INDIAN OIL CORP LTD 341-1.5% -1.3% -4.4% -14.8% 2.3% 71.1% 59.2% 411.2 193.75 THAILAND THAI OIL PCL 44 1.8% 1.2% 1.8% -16.7% -14.3% -29.% -22.7% 6.25 42. PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PCL 53-1.4% -15.3% -17.6% -16.3% -21.3% -31.3% -33.2% 8.75 52.5 MALAYSIA PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD 5.8% -4.8% -6.2% -18.9% -24.5% -24.9% -26.2% 7.1 4.97 PHILIPPINES PETRON CORP 1-1.1% -5.3% -16.7% -16.4% -17.% -29.5% -29.6% 14.4 9.8 U.S.A Intgration EXXON MOBIL CORP 87-2.9% -7.7% -8.9% -9.6% -15.6% -9.1% -14.4% 14.76 86.6 CHEVRON CORP 12-2.4% -7.7% -12.% -16.5% -19.6% -14.6% -18.% 135.1 12.37 CONOCOPHILLIPS 62-1.8% -8.% -12.5% -2.4% -24.8% -1.1% -11.6% 87.9 62.31 INTEROIL CORP 46-5.2% -19.1% -21.9% -21.3% -29.8% -15.% -9.8% 69.81 43.25 Downstream VALERO ENERGY CORP 46-1.2% -7.1% -6.5% -4.4% -13.9%.3% -8.2% 59.69 42.53 CVR ENERGY INC 39 -.6% -9.3% -17.2% -17.6% -14.5% 9.2% -5.5% 51. 33.5 SPECTRA ENERGY PARTNERS LP 52-2.3% -8.7% -8.6% -3.9% -.9% 21.3% 13.6% 58.8 41.5 WILLIAMS PARTNERS LP 44-2.7% -14.4% -15.6% -18.8% -17.4% -11.5% -14.% 57.3 42.8 DELEK US HOLDINGS INC 27 -.3% -7.% -11.7% -17.9% -1.9% -9.1% -2.3% 35.93 26.13 TESORO CORP 74.2% -2.3% 3.2% 21.% 28.8% 32.2% 27.2% 79.49 46.4 WESTERN REFINING INC 37-2.2% -9.4% -9.8% -9.8% -3.5% 1.3% -8.4% 46.9 33.91 Upstream ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP 73-2.5% -7.2% -18.7% -3.5% -32.9% -6.3% -7.5% 113.51 73.1 DEVON ENERGY CORP 53-1.5% -11.5% -17.4% -24.2% -32.1% -1.5% -14.3% 8.63 52.3 EOG RESOURCES INC 86 -.6% -4.8% -12.% -14.8% -24.3% 8.6% 2.9% 118.89 78.76 ENCANA CORP 12-3.1% -17.2% -31.9% -45.7% -5.1% -32.8% -32.5% 24.83 12.16 CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP 17 3.2% -1.6% -25.7% -3.8% -4.2% -32.5% -32.8% 29.92 16.41 SOUTHWEST GAS CORP 57-1.9% -2.3%.3% 1.5% 1.7% 9.1% 2.3% 59.76 47.21 PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES CO 131.5% -8.2% -23.1% -35.1% -42.2% -27.% -28.7% 234.6 127.31 CONTINENTAL RESOURCES INC/OK 32-4.1% -16.6% -4.9% -56.2% -58.1% -39.6% -43.3% 8.91 31.28 NEWFIELD EXPLORATION CO 24.5% -6.7% -28.3% -37.% -4.3% 3.3% -2.% 45.43 22.79 CONCHO RESOURCES INC 85 -.7% -1.6% -27.6% -34.6% -39.8% -14.8% -21.% 148.61 77.22 DENBURY RESOURCES INC 6-3.3% -13.9% -42.9% -59.8% -63.8% -59.9% -61.% 18.59 6.31 CIMAREX ENERGY CO 99 -.1% -6.1% -16.2% -26.5% -29.1% 1.1% -6.1% 15.71 92.38 ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP 15.7% -15.1% -36.% -4.8% -49.4% -3.5% -32.2% 31.43 14.21 RANGE RESOURCES CORP 54 2.3% -8.1% -24.7% -25.2% -38.6% -32.% -35.7% 95.41 51.83 MARATHON OIL CORP 25-3.% -12.9% -21.4% -35.7% -34.9% -28.9% -27.9% 41.92 25.3 U.K. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-A SHS 1,984-3.% -7.7% -9.9% -16.9% -16.3% -3.3% -8.3% 2,475.5 1,982. BP PLC-SPONS ADR 36-2.9% -9.4% -11.5% -21.1% -29.9% -2.7% -25.4% 53.48 36.24 FRANCE TOTAL SA 41-3.4% -9.% -9.7% -17.8% -22.2% -1.% -7.6% 54.71 4.57 ITALY SARAS SPA 1 -.5% -6.5% 1.7% -9.2% -23.7% -.4% -1.% 1.32.66 ENI SPA 14-4.2% -11.2% -15.2% -26.7% -29.5% -15.5% -21.3% 2.5 13.8 PORTUGAL GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA 8-2.4% -12.7% -25.7% -38.3% -38.2% -27.8% -3.2% 13.8 8.3 FINLAND NESTE OIL OYJ 19-5.% -7.7% -.9% 2.7% 23.5% 38.% 28.7% 2.4 13.1 POLAND POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN 48.2% -1.1% 6.7% 19.2% 18.8% 9.4% 18.3% 49.7 36.2 BRAZIL PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRAS-PR 1-6.6% -17.5% -23.4% -49.8% -46.8% -4.6% -4.8% 24.9 1.1 3
그림 4. Global Peer Valuation(1) - Petrochemicals KUMHO PC KCC HYOSUNG SKC HUCHEMS OCI SHIN-ETSU MITSUI CHEM LG CHEM Lotte Chem HANWHA CHEM KOLON INDUSTRIES SAMSUNG FINE CHEM CHINA PETROLEUM Country KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA KOREA CHINA JAPAN JAPAN Currency(mil.) KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW CNY JPY JPY 매출액 212A 23,458, 15,855, 7,21, 5,999, 3,354, 12,939, 2,672, 5,34, 1,48, 692,82 3,327, 2,572, 1,62, 1,431, 213A 23,38, 16,21, 7,892, 5,171, 3,239, 12,686, 2,559, 5,277, 1,429, 83,85 2,971, 2,841, 1,54, 1,388, 214F 22,872, 15,87, 8,3, 4,875, 3,444, 12,95, 2,887, 5,436, 1,22, 71, 3,132, 2,99, 1,138, 1,554, 215F 23,815, 14,871, 8,82, 5,264, 3,622, 12,293, 3,23, 5,763, 1,289, 822, 3,395, 2,856, 1,23, 1,63, 영업이익 212A 2,25, 483,82 124,74 245,12 22,97 335,52 179,11 318, 89,47 7,177 255,9 96,427 154,26 24,788 213A 1,839, 489,6 14,78 155,9 231,49 591,67 134,87 245,73 27, 63,39-72,672 16, 161,62 4,823 214F 1,424, 417,64 178,68 173,84 287,22 554,61 152,7 192,99-32, 54,669 69,677 99,574 175,96 24,863 215F 1,751, 614,47 245,43 279,74 329,47 63,84 185,83 259,35 25, 8,556 22,3 11,32 193,58 41,349 순이익 212A 1,561, 382,15 47,722 185,6 656,14 146,47 11,33 214,31 85,256 56,22 129,78 61,829 11,95-4,43 213A 1,41, 391,92 1,41 51,578 277,25-19,14 46,989 129,12 31,875 53,422-34,48 69,846 11,75-1,13 214F 1,18, 289,61 81,373 88,378 265,61 278,45 73,836 17,83 38, 41,674-2,92 65,6 119,44-22,525 215F 1,357, 46,35 129,11 17,62 254,2 312,96 96,161 169,98 18, 6,26 12,66 61,613 129,74 16,257 EPS 212A 22,121 11,876 387 5,939 63,52 4,6 3,39 8,44 3,341 1,379 5,444.5 238.2-5.8 213A 2,236 11,458 13 1,647 26,749-3,165 1,727 4,845 1,241 1,31-13,57.6 26.6-1.1 214F 14,718 8,456 473 2,975 25,693 7,785 2,54 4,115 2,58 1,47-681.6 281.7-22.7 215F 19,48 13,297 831 5,571 25,314 9,169 2,655 6,484 1,73 1,53 4,337.5 35.6 15.8 PER 212A 8.3 13.2 31.6 13.2 8.6 16.9 7.5 5.3 9.9 18.7 14.3 8.9 34.4-213A 9.1 13.7 97.3 47.6 2.5-14.4 8.8 26.6 19.7-8.1 31.4-214F 12.5 18.5 25.8 26.3 21.3 8.8 12.1 1.4 16. 24.6-8.7 29.1-215F 9.5 11.8 14.7 14.1 21.6 7.5 9.3 6.6 19.3 17.1 18. 9.3 26.8 21.7 PBR 212A 1.2.9.4 1.6 1..8.7.6.7 2.3.5 1.1 2.4 1. 213A 1.1.8.4 1.6 1.1.9.8.7.7 2.3.7 1. 2.3 1. 214F 1.1.8.5 1.6 1.1.9.7.6.7 2.2.7.9 2.1 1. 215F 1..8.4 1.5 1..8.7.6.7 2.1.6.8 1.9.9 EV/EBITDA 212A 4.8 6.4 14. 1. 15.6 1.8 8.2 5.3 5.6 12.1 4.2 5.8 13.3 8.8 213A 4.8 6.5 14.4 13.3 15.9 7.7 1.8 6.5 9.3 1.1 9. 5.3 13.2 16.2 214F 5.3 7.1 11.8 12.6 13.1 8.3 9. 7.5 47.7 11.3 7.2 5. 11.8 13.1 215F 4.6 5.6 1.2 9.8 11.9 7.8 7.8 6.3 17.7 8.7 5.7 4.6 1.5 1.1 ROE 212A 15.2 6.5.9 11.5 1.8 4.6 9.9 11.7 7.6 12.6 4. 12.6 7.1-1. 213A 12.7 6.3 -.2 3.2 5.5-3.8 5.3 7.1 2.3 11.5-1.2 12.5 7.3-1.8 214F 8.7 4.5 1.8 5.9 5.1 1.4 6. 5.8 3.3 8.8 -.3 1.8 7.3-4.3 215F 1.6 6.8 3.2 1.8 4.8 1.6 7.6 8.5.9 12.2 4.2 9.5 7.1 4.7 수익률 -1W -7.3-9. -3.9-1.5 2.6 -.3-6.1-11.6-1.3-4.3-11.1-8.5-3.6-3.7-1M -9.1-4.6-3.9-1.4-2.5 9.4-5.2-8.5-4.4 2.4-14.2-5.2 5.9 8.5-3M -3.8-8.2-22.8 2.6-14.8-15.6-25.7-26. -17.5 7.1-46.9-23.6 21.9 9.9-6M -33.3-13.1-32.2-8.7-14.2 2.7-26.4-4. -14.4 7.1-53.8-19. 35.6 31.4 YTD -38.6-32.5-43.4-17.6 17. -2.1-18.8-21.9-26. 7.3-59.1-4.7 33.3 35. LAST PRICE 214-12-13 184, 156, 12, 78, 548, 68, 24, 42, 32,95 25,75 78, 6. 8,184 343 MARKET CAP 214-12-13 12,194, 5,364, 1,975, 2,388, 5,765, 2,416, 91,42 1,71, 85,11 1,52, 1,862, 812,74 3,536, 35,55 SUMITOMO MITSUBISHI SHOWA FORMOSA FORMOSA DU PONT (E.I.) CHEM CHEM DENKO PLASTICS CHEM&FIBRE CHEMICAL CO ASAHI KASEI IRPC RELIANCE DE NEMOURS DOW CHEM EASTMAN BASF BAYER SABIC Country JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN TAIWAN TAIWAN THAILAND INDIA U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A GERMANY GERMANY SAUDI Currency(mil.) JPY JPY JPY JPY TWD TWD THB INR USD USD USD EUR EUR SAR 매출액 212A 1,971, 3,217, 1,628, 751,75 - - 286,83 3,279, 34,896 56,485 8,168 78,26 39,593 187, 213A 1,966, 3,136, 1,673, 837,9 21,31 417,59 287,14 3,78, 35,881 56,863 9,369 73,992 4,451 192,46 214F 2,29, 3,469, 1,, 889, 224,18 412, 283,2 4,231, 35,462 58,414 9,515 72,58 41,844 196,47 215F 2,313, 3,686, 1,996, 943,89 228,18 415, 287,53 4,28, 36,813 59,591 1,751 65,719 45,59 198,25 영업이익 212A 65,3 133,67 15,13 31,654 - - 1,354 281,29 4,977 4,634 1,33-4,236 4,788 213A 5,669,65 9,752 25,482 4,865 21,549 2,245 26,8 5,78 5,239 1,587 7,89 5,424 44,66 214F,96 111,97 142,14 28,733 6,461 1,841-184 274,16 5,396 6,178 1,625 7,569 5,932 42,733 215F 15,68 158,65 156,11 41, 7,719 13,212 4,47 311,62 5,638 6,493 1,826 7,82 6,96 42,599 순이익 212A 1,233 28,346 55,16 9,765 13,819 6,645-238 24, 3,14 2,268 81 5,11 4,481 25,76 213A -49,37 22,695 5,278 11,46 2,955 24,952 733 28,82 3,583 2,746 993 4,855 4,736 26,54 214F 33,31 31,462 93,21 6,513 24,61 2,239-255 225,32 3,697 3,522 1,52 5,4 5,2 26,44 215F 47,77 54,842 99,922 18,44 25,733 2,298 2,956 249,84 4,65 3,819 1,136 5,318 5,697 26,591 EPS 212A.6 19. 38.9 6.5 2.3 1.1. 63.7 3.3 1.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 8.3 213A -3. 15.3 36. 6.8 3.3 4.3. 65.8 3.8 2.3 6.3 5.4 5.7 8.7 214F 2.5 21.4 7. 4.6 3.7 3.5. 71.5 4. 3. 7. 5.5 6. 8.7 215F 28.8 36.7 71.6 12.7 3.9 3.5.1 79.9 4.5 3.4 7.6 5.8 6.9 8.9 PER 212A 739.5 32.6 27.5 24.9 29.4 57.2-13.8 21.1 22.5 13.5 12.7 2.6 9.8 213A - 4.4 29.7 23.9 2.3 15.2 84.4 13.4 18.1 19. 11.4 12.8 19.5 9.4 214F 23.3 28.9 15.3 35.2 18. 18.8-12.3 17.3 14.7 1.4 12.5 18.5 9.4 215F 16.6 16.8 14.9 12.7 17.2 18.8 2.8 11. 15.4 12.9 9.5 11.9 16.2 9.2 PBR 212A 1.6 1.2 2.1.9 1.9 1.6.8 1.6 6.3 2.3 3.8 2.4 4.6 1.7 213A 1.8 1.2 2..9 1.7 1.4.8 1.5 4.6 2.3 2.9 2.4 4.5 1.5 214F 1.4 1.1 1.7.8 1.6 1.4.8 1.4 4. 2. 2.5 2.2 4.3 1.5 215F 1.1 1. 1.5.8 1.5 1.3.8 1.3 3.6 2. 2.3 2.1 3.8 1.4 EV/EBITDA 212A 1.4 8.3 8.5 7. 33. 48.2 17.7 8. 11.4 9.7 8.9 6. 12.2 6.2 213A 11.8 9.5 1. 8.7 28.9 13.3 16. 9.3 1.3 8.9 7.4 7.6 11.7 5.6 214F 9.3 9.5 7.6 8.6 3. 15.2 21.7 9.3 9.8 7.9 8.2 7.4 12.2 5.5 215F 8.8 8.2 6.6 7.2 26. 14.8 11.4 9.3 9.3 7.8 6.8 7.1 1.7 5.2 ROE 212A.3 3.7 8.3 4.1 6. 2.6.4 12.6 33.2 1.7 33. 19. 2.2 17.5 213A -12.5 3. 7.1 3.4 9.1 9.2 1.2 11.8 3.3 13.1 28.1 18.8 21.9 16.8 214F 6.3 3.8 9.9 2. 9.2 6.7 -.1 11.8 22.7 14.5 25.4 18.1 21.4 16. 215F 6.9 5.8 1.7 5.5 9.7 7. 3.9 12.1 24.8 16.6 24.8 17.5 22. 15.5 수익률 -1W -4. -5. -2. -9.5-5.2-4. -9. -7.8-5.1-13.6-9.9-6.6-7.1-13.6-1M 15.8 7. 8.3 5.9-1. -4.8-9.5-9. -2. -15.6-13.8 -.4 2. -21.1-3M 21.4 13.9 22.8 5.9-1.7-8.8-9.5-13.1 7.1-17.7-12.6-1.3 5.6-39. -6M 24.5 46.1 41.5 18.2-12.3-1.2-1.6-18.4 1.5-17.3-18.3-19. 8. -29.8 YTD 15.8 27.1 3.2 8.7-16.4-22.4-6.7-1.4 6.7-2.4-1.1-1.9 9.7-26.9 LAST PRICE 214-12-13 477 618 1,7 162 67 65 3. 882 69 43 73 69 112 82 MARKET CAP 214-12-13 789,65 93,58 1,, 242,53 428,41 382,15 62,121 2,854, 62,827 51,91 1,777 63,43 92,494 244,62 주 : Bloomberg 컨센서스기준 4
DAISHIN SECURITIES 그림 5. Global Peer Valuation(2)- Refining SK CHINA COSMO OIL SHOWA IDEMITSU S-OIL GS PETROCHINA CNOOC TONENGENERAL INNOVATION PETROLEU COMPANY SHELL KOSAN FORMOSA BHARAT HINDUSTAN RELIANCE Country KOREA KOREA KOREA CHINA CHINA CHINA JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN TAIWAN INDIA INDIA INDIA Currency(mil.) KRW KRW KRW CNY CNY CNY JPY JPY JPY JPY TWD INR INR INR 매출액 212A 74,47, 34,896, 9,827, 2,16, 2,572, 239, 3,133, 2,644, 2,82, 4,345, - 2,38, 1,, 3,279, 213A 68,57, 31,227, 9,714, 2,427, 2,841, 277, 3,138, 2,931, 3,32, 4,346, 918,67 2,465, 1,971, 3,78, 214F 65,472, 29,335, 1,52, 2,385, 2,99, 28,1 3,559, 3,18, 3,532, 4,822, 944,39 2,742, 2,295, 4,231, 215F 64,432, 27,831, 11,85, 2,52, 2,856, 273,29 3,317, 2,786, 3,463, 4,91, 919, 2,639, 2,296, 4,28, 영업이익 212A 1,949, 1,81, 817,72 174,96 96,427 89,46 54,933 8,177 18,523 126,28-33,688 28,429 281,29 213A 1,666, 587,15 696,15 194,31 16, 88,99 4,617 74,525 49,84 93,497 24,156 36,739 21,844 26,8 214F 36,29 18,572 26,1 173,34 99,574 74,911 41, 23,167-14,687 81,655 25,43 47,175 32,567 274,16 215F 1,, 524,3 528,89 168,13 11,32 6,393 36,938 52,967 34,738 55,676 27,564 56,25 33,12 311,62 순이익 212A 1,324, 822,84 632,17 114,48 61,829 65,294-9,56 1,787 52,425 53,67 3,79 12,6 8,166 24, 213A 1,55, 424,95 527,5 126,38 69,846 63,479-48, 5,443 24,357 4,93 24,494 16,491 8,188 28,82 214F 82,192 3,258 89,29 128,72 65,6 52,76 4,467 18,613 34,583 39,116 25,57 21,555 9,31 225,32 215F 797,52 371,96 337,57 123,51 61,613 45,243-1,433 35,675 17,689 2,827 28,752 33,24 15,775 249,84 EPS 212A 14,154. 7,157.4 6,564.2.6.5 1.5-11.2 4.8 111. 354.5.4 16.9 26.5 63.7 213A 11,414. 3,772.2 5,572.1.7.6 1.4-61. 131.5 66.4 252.8 2.6 24.3 21.7 65.8 214F 89.4-33.7 842.6.7.6 1.2 5. 45.7 89.6 248.2 2.7 3.1 27.5 71.5 215F 8,53.1 3,218.8 3,523.7.7.5 1. 4.8 95.1 48.3 135.6 3. 45.1 46.6 79.9 PER 212A 5.7 6.2 6. 14.8 8.9 5.5-26.9 9.2 5.5 159.1 39.5 21.2 13.8 213A 7.1 11.7 7.1 13.5 8.1 5.6-7.5 15.4 7.8 25.5 27.4 25.9 13.4 214F.5-46.9 13.2 8.7 6.8 31.9 21.6 11.4 7.9 24.2 22.2 2.5 12.3 215F 9.6 13.7 11.2 13.2 9.3 7.7 32.9 1.4 21.2 14.5 22.2 14.8 12.1 11. PBR 212A.5.9.6 1.4 1.1 1.1.4 1.5 1.6.6-3. 1.4 1.6 213A.5.9.6 1.5 1. 1..5 1.3 1.3.5 2.7 2.8 1.4 1.5 214F.5 1..6 1.4.9 1..6 1.2 1.2.5 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.4 215F.5.9.6 1.4.8.9.6 1.1 1.2.4 2.5 2.2 1.3 1.3 EV/EBITDA 212A 5.1 5.4 7. - 5.8 2.9 9. 12.1 18.7 6.7-16.1 14.9 8. 213A 5.7 8.3 8.6 5.8 5.3 3. 1.7 5.9 12.2 7.7 16.4 12.8 11.7 9.3 214F 14.9 21.8 17.9 6.4 5. 3.5 13.3 8.2 29.1 8.8 15.9 1.7 11.6 9.3 215F 8.3 8.7 1.9 6.5 4.6 3.6 11.7 6.3 12.5 1.9 14. 9.1 1.1 9.3 ROE 212A 8.6 15.4 9.3 1.4 12.6 22.3-3. -.3 17.1 1.3-7.3 5.6 12.6 213A 6.8 7.9 7.8 11.5 12.5 18.9-15.3 17.9 8.1 6.8 11.2 1.4 5.1 11.8 214F.7.8 1.5 1.8 1.8 15. 4.4 5.7 1.5 6.4 11.1 12.5 6.6 11.8 215F 5. 7.1 5.1 1.3 9.5 12.2 1.9 1.6 6.1 2.3 12.1 15.8 1.6 12.1 수익률 -1W -5.6-3.3-4.4-7.6-8.5-6.7-3. -3. -2.1-3.1-3.8-6. -1.3-7.8-1M -5.5 8.1-1.4 19.4-5.2-13.3-3. 1.4 3.4-4.9-3.9-9.2 1.3-9. -3M -1.6-2.2-6. 16. -23.6-29.7-18. -1.8 6.6-15.3-11. -2.3 13.9-13.1-6M -21.8-21.7-7.1 23.8-19. -27.4-27.4-18.4 2.1-9. -12.9 17.2 43. -18.4 YTD -42.5-4.3-31.1 21.3-4.7-3.2-2.9-7.7 6.1-18. -19.7 91.9 136.9-1.4 LAST PRICE 214-12-13 81, 44,15 39, 9.4 6. 1 159. 986. 1,24. 1,963. 65.7 667.6 562.2 882.4 MARKET CAP 214-12-13 7,517, 4,97, 3,67, 1,65, 812,74 449,15 134,79. 371,57. 578,75. 314,8. 625,86. 482,73. 19,38. 2,854,. EXXON CONOCOPH INDIAN OIL THAI OIL PTT GLOBAL PETRONAS PETRON CHEVRON INTEROIL VALERO CVR ENERGY SPECTRA WILLIAMS DELEK MOBIL ILLIPS Country INDIA THAILAND THAILAND MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A Currency(mil.) INR THB THB MYR PHP USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD 매출액 212A 4,297, 443,3 551,62 16,335 388,76 461,35 236,92 62,116 1,346 132,71 8,471 238 6,624 7,896 213A 4,759, 427,53 551,9 16,11 453,86 438,64 237,77 6,367 1,376 133,39 8,665 75 6,548 8,625 214F 5,19, 398,71 565,46 15,33 473,19 418,98 214,62 56,259 326 13,91 9,243 2,274 7,89 8,345 215F 5,24, 43,3 546, 15,64 548,97 385,83 186,73 52,113 21 11,13 6,821 2,56 9,74 7,47 영업이익 212A 115,16 14,92 38,37 4,834 1,147 67,941 41,151 15,839-3 4,357 1,2 119 1,526 476 213A 124,76 15,539 41,69 4,661 13,42 58,147 37,682 14,62 61 3,491 63 377 1,555 248 214F 11,27 5,9 32,454 3,567 14,547 5,76 29,21 12,229-96 5,72 559 1,157 1,735 363 215F 119,42 12,182 36,58 3,917 24,721 4,179 21,939 8,318-97 5,87 679 1,267 2,749 371 순이익 212A 67,391 11,817 31,722 3,633 2,17 36,369 24,256 7,184-25 2,724 636 166 669 279 213A 6,245 12,96 33,729 3,659 4,582 32,719 21,673 7,47-9 2,14 312 313 713 13 214F 56,12 3,384 28,17 2,839 2,488 3,93 18,759 6,983-7 3,111 277 828 541 196 215F 67,827 8,587 31,441 3,179 9,989 25,1 15,35 5,13-64 3, 319 931 1,34 193 EPS 212A 25.4 5.9 7.1.5.2 7.9 12.3 5.7 -.5 4.9 6.9 1.7 2. 4.6 213A 27.1 5.6 7.4.5.4 7.4 11.1 5.6 -.2 4.1 3.7 1.8 1.7 2.1 214F 23.2 1.8 6.2.4.2 7.3 9.9 5.7-1.4 5.9 3.2 2.7 1. 3.3 215F 27.7 4.2 7..4 1. 6.2 8.3 4.3-1.3 5.9 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.9 PER 212A 13.4 7.4 7.4 11.1 46.2 11. 8.3 1.9-9.5 5.7 3.8 21.9 5.8 213A 12.6 7.7 7.1 11.2 23.6 11.7 9.2 11.1-11.3 1.8 28.3 25.3 13.2 214F 14.7 24.1 8.5 14.2 45.7 11.8 1.3 11. - 7.8 12.4 18.8 42. 8.3 215F 12.3 1.4 7.6 12.9 9.6 14. 12.4 14.7-7.8 14.5 17.8 17.8 9.2 PBR 212A 1.4 1. 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.5 1.4 3. 1.4 2.2 2.9 1.3 1.8 213A 1.3.9 1. 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.5 3. 1.3 2.6.8 1.6 1.5 214F 1.2.9.9 1.8 1.5 2. 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.2-1.4 1.7 1.3 215F 1.1.9.9 1.6 1.3 2. 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.1-1.4 1.8 1.2 EV/EBITDA 212A 9. 5.1 6.2 5.7 14.7 4.3 3.3 4.1-4.9 3.3 69.4 12.9 3. 213A 8.8 5.5 5.7 5.6 12.4 5. 3.9 3.8 28.1 5.2 5.6 44.8 12.6 4.9 214F 9.5 1.4 6.5 6.8 11.1 5.5 4.4 4.3-4. - 13.3 12.1 4. 215F 8.6 6.5 5.6 5.9 6.8 6.5 5.2 5.1-4. - 12.4 8.7 4.1 ROE 212A 8.7 14.8 14.9 15.8 3.5 24. 18.4 12.2-2.8 15.3 5.3 9.6 7.6 36. 213A 9.8 13. 14.1 16.6 6.3 18.9 15.2 13.6 -.1 11.2 21.7 5.2 8.6 13.2 214F 8.8 4. 11.4 12.6 5.8 17.7 12. 13.1-8.2 15. - 7.7 4.2 18.4 215F 9.5 9. 12.2 13.3 14.6 13.8 9.6 8.9-6.4 12.4-8. 11.3 15.3 수익률 -1W -1.3 1.2-15.3-4.8-5.3-7.7-7.7-8. -19.1-7.1-9.3-8.7-14.4-7. -1M -4.4 1.8-17.6-6.2-16.7-8.9-12. -12.5-21.9-6.5-17.2-8.6-15.6-11.7-3M -14.8-16.7-16.3-18.9-16.4-9.6-16.5-2.4-21.3-4.4-17.6-3.9-18.8-17.9-6M 2.3-14.3-21.3-24.5-17. -15.6-19.6-24.8-29.8-13.9-14.5 -.9-17.4-1.9 YTD 59.2-22.7-33.2-26.2-29.6-14.4-18. -11.6-9.8-8.2-5.5 13.6-14. -2.3 LAST PRICE 214-12-13 341. 43.5 52.8 5.1 9.8 86.6 12.4 62.5 46.5 46.3 39.4 51.5 43.7 27.1 MARKET CAP 214-12-13 827,93. 88,741. 237,84. 4,88. 92,157. 366,71. 193,54. 76,871. 2,327.6 24,118. 3,422. 15,219. 19,228. 1,64.7 주 : Bloomberg 컨센서스기준 5
그림 6. Global Peer Valuation(3)- Refining TESORO WESTERN ANADARKO DEVON EOG ENCANA CHESAPEAK SOUTHWEST PENN WEST CONTINENTAL NEWFIELD PIONEER CONCHO DENBURY REFINING PETROLEUM ENERGY RESOURCES CORP E ENERGY GAS CORP PETROLEUM RESOURCES EXPLORATION RESOURCES RESOURCES Country U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A Currency(mil.) USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD CAD USD USD USD USD USD 매출액 212A 31,217 9,559 13,34 8,776 11,23 5,315 11,36 1,967 3,47 3,76 2,417 2,617 1,96 2,412 213A 36,48 9,599 14,631 1,671 14,358 5,987 17,221 1,919 2,71 3,617 3,68 2,261 2,34 2,56 214F 4,727 15,457 17,258 18,42 17,695 7,113 2,27 2,112 2,354 4,217 4,542 2,38 2,784 2,479 215F 34,799 13,17 15,552 18,33 17,67 6,937 18,612 2,376 1,888 4,452 4,639 2,476 3,182 2,262 영업이익 212A 1,695 763 3,32 1, 2,536-1,231-468 268 359 852 1,21 483 868 996 213A 862 598 4,472 2,444 3,777 1,184 2,394 292 72 1,226 1,828 516 741 966 214F 1,647 1,12 5,42 4,95 4,891 2,66 2,677 283 328 1,432 2,115 596 972 782 215F 1,77 862 3,297 3,38 3, 2, 2,273 312-19 1,45 1,76 596 783 613 순이익 212A 959 55 1,653 1,34 1,49 927 38 126 176 461 59 319 398 536 213A 424 315 2,9 1,72 2,237 72 1,137 146-139 614 996 235 351 551 214F 853 471 2,462 2,156 2,944 1,179 1,261 139 71 745 1,131 366 457 357 215F 83 43 1,682 1,93 2,17 1,38 1,17 152-1 752 926 289 391 268 EPS 212A 6.8 4.9 3.3 3.2 2.7 1.3.5 2.7.4 3.7 1.6 2.4 3.8 1.4 213A 3. 3.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 1. 1.6 3. -.3 4.4 2.7 1.8 3.6 1.5 214F 6.5 4.5 4.7 5.3 5.3 1.6 1.6 2.9.2 5.2 3. 1.9 4. 1. 215F 6.5 4.1 3.1 4.8 3.9 1.5 1.5 3.2 -.1 5. 2.3 2.1 3.4.7 PER 212A 11. 7.6 21.9 16.4 31.6 9.5 35.5 21.4 7. 35.1 19.9 9.9 22.5 4.6 213A 24.6 11.9 17.7 12.5 21.2 12.8 1.5 18.9-3. 11.8 13.4 23.8 4.3 214F 11.4 8.2 15.5 1.1 16.2 7.6 1.5 19.4 15.7 25.2 1.6 12.8 21.3 6.2 215F 11.4 9.1 23.3 11. 22.3 8.4 11.7 17.7-26.5 13.7 11.5 25. 8.8 PBR 212A 2.4 4.1 1.7 1. 3.3 1.2.9 2..1 2.8 3.8.8 2.5.5 213A 2.3 4. 1.6 1. 3.1 1.6.8 1.9.1 2.3 2.9 1.1 2.3.4 214F 2. 2.1 1.7.9 2.6 1.1.9 1.8.2 2.4 2.3 1. 1.7.4 215F 1.8 1.9 1.6 1. 2.4 1..8 1.7.2 2.2 2.1.9.9.4 EV/EBITDA 212A 5.1 6. 6.1 5.6 8.7 11. 9.5 8.1 2.6 12. 8.1 4.3 8.7 3. 213A 8.8 8.3 5.3 5.2 6.7 5.1 5.4-3.2 9.4 5.9 5.1 8.1 3.8 214F 5.8 4.6 4.6 4.2 5.7 4. 4.8 8.1 3.4 8.1 5.2 4.2 6.5 4.3 215F 6. 5.3 5.8 4.5 6.6 3.8 5.1 7.4 5.2 7.9 5.5 4.1 6.3 4.8 ROE 212A 22.6 49.7 8.6 5.7 1.4 5.1 1.1 9.9 1.5 8. 22.1 7.3 12.8 1.4 213A 1.3 35.3 8.8 5.3 14.8 12.7 8.2 1.7-1. 8.4 26.5 7.4 9.7 9.8 214F 18.1 33.9 1.8 9.9 17.5 15.2 8.2 9.4 1. 9.5 23.7 11.4 9.8 7. 215F 18.5 24.1 6.5 7.9 8.7 13.1 6.6 9.9.3 8. 14.3 7.1 6.9 5. 수익률 -1W -2.3-9.4-7.2-11.5-4.8-16.2-1.6-2.3-26.1-8.2-16.6-6.7-1.6-13.9-1M 3.2-9.8-18.7-17.4-12. -3.1-25.7.3-49.1-23.1-4.9-28.3-27.6-42.9-3M 21. -9.8-3.5-24.2-14.8-43.2-3.8 1.5-69.7-35.1-56.2-37. -34.6-59.8-6M 28.8-3.5-32.9-32.1-24.3-46.8-4.2 1.7-78.7-42.2-58.1-4.3-39.8-63.8 YTD 27.2-8.4-7.5-14.3 2.9-26.4-32.8 2.3-74.3-28.7-43.3-2. -21. -61. LAST PRICE 214-12-13 74.4 37. 73.3 53. 86.4 14.1 17.2 57.2 2.2 131.3 31.9 24.1 85.4 6.4 MARKET CAP 214-12-13 9,393.9 3,65.7 37,143. 21,686. 47,332. 1,463. 11,467. 2,66.4 1,69.2 19,543. 11,87. 3,311.3 9,646.5 2,256.4 ROYAL POLSKI CIMAREX ULTRA RANGE MARATHON GAZPROM GALP DUTCH BP TOTAL SARAS ENI ROSNEFT NESTE OIL KONCERN PETROBRAS ENERGY CO PETROLEUM RESOURCES OIL CORP NEFT ENERGIA SHELL NAFTOWY Country U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.S.A U.K. U.K. FRANCE ITALY ITALY RUSSIA RUSSIA PORTUGAL FINLAND POLAND BRAZIL Currency(mil.) USD USD USD USD USD USD EUR EUR EUR USD RUB EUR EUR PLN BRL 매출액 212A 1,613 1,115 1,366 15,67 469,41 36, 236,59 11,373 119,88 45,689 2,968, 18,521 17,732 117,63 284,23 213A 2,6 921 1,785 15,411 453,9 355,36 238,13 1,251 118,81 46,49 4,943, 19,88 17,434 116,73 314,56 214F 2,472 1,24 2,118 11,312 439,64 352,56 224,53 1,413 18,41 42,861 6,647, 19,25 15,628 11, 333,54 215F 2,532 1,361 2,253 9,842 391,53 31,51 211,31 1,132 13,13 4,525 5,965, 19,48 14,882 17,38 345,22 영업이익 212A 558 423 267 5,833 42,835 25,159 33,175 52.6 19,893 6,357 385,37 583 376 2,714 37,486 213A 776 363 495 5,799 32,615 25,19 28,653-13.5 13,39 6,875 583,21 549 559 1,1 35, 214F 838 518 725 2,713 34,73 2,841 21,823-147. 11,946 6,77 85,76 648 363-85 37,985 215F 58 54 596 89 29,762 18,835 19,432-21.2 11,389 5,326 655, 796 541 2,37 44,864 순이익 212A 356 283 116 1,826 26,186 17,186 16,387-18.4 7,226 5,242 328,46 362 218 2,687 21,699 213A 479 249 213 2,77 19,988 13,821 15,94-17.1 4,562 5,314 52,21 277 385 69 23,543 214F 519 387 285 1,763 23,542 12,855 13,55-98.4 4,25 4,662 432,67 295 263 115 22,65 215F 351 365 255 634 2,161 12,287 12,147 9. 3,865 4,446 464,36 338 376 1,628 27,99 EPS 212A 4.1 1.8.7 2.6 4.2 5.5 7.3 -.16 2.9 1.17 34.3.4.8 5.7 1.6 213A 5.5 1.6 1.4 2.9 3.2 4.4 6.6 -.87 1.256 1.136 47.8.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 214F 5.9 2.5 1.5 2.5 3.7 4.1 5.6 -.97 1.134 1.1 46.2.4 1.1.7 1.7 215F 3.9 2.2 1.4 1.2 3.2 3.8 5.1.11 1.87.985 43.6.4 1.4 3.5 2.1 PER 212A 24.3 8. 74.4 9.9 7.4 6.6 7.1-7. - - 18.8 22. 8.4 6.2 213A 17.9 9.2 38.8 8.7 9.8 8.2 7.8-11.1 - - 24.4 12.3 3.2 5.5 214F 16.6 6. 35.3 1.3 8.4 8.9 9.2-12.3 - - 22.3 16.5 64.8 5.9 215F 25.2 6.6 37.5 21.1 9.9 9.7 1. 74.8 12.9 - - 2.2 13. 13.6 4.8 PBR 212A 2.5-3.8.9 1.1 1. 1.2.6.8 - - 1.2 1.8.7.4 213A 2.2-3.5.9 1.1.9 1.1.8.8 - - 1.3 1.7.8.4 214F 1.9-2.8.8 1..9 1.1.9.8 - - 1.3 1.6.9.4 215F 1.8 7.4 2.6.8 1..8 1.1.9.8 - - 1.3 1.5.9.3 EV/EBITDA 212A 8.6 5.4 14.1 2.6 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.9 2.4 - - 9.2 9.5 5.4 4.6 213A 6.8 8. 12. 2.4 4.4 3.6 3.6 9.7 3. - - 9.1 7.2 8.9 5.2 214F 5.8 7. 1.2 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2 9. 3.3 - - 8.7 8.6 8.3 5.7 215F 6.5 6.4 1. 5. 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.8 3.6 - - 8. 6.8 6.7 5.4 ROE 212A 1.7 35.4 4.5 9.8 14.3 13.6 16.6 -.8 12.7 21.4 16.3 9.4 8.4 8.6 6.4 213A 13. -44.4 7.7 1.5 1.6 13.2 14.2-9.2 8.8 19.2 18.1 5.1 14.7 2.8 6.6 214F 11.9-4,611.1 1.3 1.2 12. 8.8 12.7-12.7 7.2 16. 1.5 5.3 7.8-2.7 6.1 215F 5.7 143.4 6.5 3.6 1.2 8.3 11.1 1.2 6. 13. 1.7 6.4 12.6 7.6 7.1 수익률 -1W -6.1-15.1-8.1-12.9-7.7-9.4-9. -6.5-7.6 - - -12.7-7.7 -.7-17.5-1M -16.2-36. -24.7-21.4-9.9-11.5-9.7 1.7-14. - - -25.7 -.9 9.9-23.4-3M -26.5-4.8-25.2-35.7-16.9-21.1-17.8-9.2-28.1 - - -38.3 2.7 18.5-49.8-6M -29.1-49.4-38.6-34.9-16.3-29.9-22.2-23.7-34.5 - - -38.2 23.5 11.6-46.8 YTD -6.1-32.2-35.7-27.9-8.3-25.4-7.6-1. -28.3 - - -3.2 28.7 15. -4.8 LAST PRICE 214-12-13 98.5 14.7 54.2 25.5 1,984. 36.2 41.1.8 17.4 - - 8.3 18.5 11.4 1.1 MARKET CAP 214-12-13 8,594. 2,249.1 9,14.2 17,176. 127,15. 11,11. 98,89. 782.7 63,271. #VALUE! #VALUE! 6,899.4 4,743.5 4,874.2 127,4. 주 : Bloomberg 컨센서스기준 6
DAISHIN SECURITIES 3. PETROCHEMICAL Update (1) Price & Margin Trend 그림 7. Petrochemical Price Trend Daily Weekly Average Montly Average Quarterly Average Yearly Average ( 단위 : $/Ton, %) 12/12 12/11 Chg. 12-2nd 12-1st Chg. Nov-14 Oct-14 Chg. 3Q14 2Q14 1Q14 Chg. '13 '12 환율 / 유가 / 납사 KRW/USD( 원 / 달러 ) 1,118 1,114.3 1,16 1,113 -.6 1,97 1,61 3.4 1,26 1,29 1,69 -.3 1,95 1,126 Dubai($/bbl) 65.6 66.2 -.9 62.9 67.2-6.3 77.1 87.4-11.8 11.6 16. 14.6-4.2 15.3 19.1 WTI($/bbl) 63.1 65.8-4.1 61.1 67.2-9. 75.8 85.1-11. 97.4 13.1 98.8-5.6 97.9 94.3 Brent($/bbl) 66. 67.4-2. 64.3 69.8-7.9 79.3 88.4-1.3 12.7 19.8 18.2-6.4 18.8 111.6 Naphtha 544 544. 547 62-9. 67 755-11.2 914 952 935-4. 927 944 Commodity Natural Rubber($/Ton,SMR2) 1,437 1,431.4 1,439 1,483-3. 1,527 1,51 1.7 1,638 1,738 1,998-5.8 2,497 3,122 Cotton(cent/lbs) 6.5 6.5. 6. 59.7.5 6.4 63.5-4.9 66. 81. 83.3-18.5 8.1 81.5 기초유분 Ethylene SE Asia 1,5 1,9-3.7 1,98 1,146-4.2 1,241 1,41-12. 1,484 1,447 1,442 2.6 1,41 1,22 Propylene FOB Korea 69 73-5.5 775 899-13.8 1,19 1,235-1.2 1,36 1,355 1,399.4 1,355 1,36 Butadiene FOB Korea 95 975-2.6 98 1,2-2.2 1,32 1,188-13.2 1,438 1,331 1,416 8.1 1,434 2, Benzene FOB Korea 684 684. 758 875-13.4 997 1,136-12.2 1,32 1,291 1,299.9 1,325 1,237 Toluene FOB Korea 583 69-4.3 653 74-11.7 837 997-16. 1,145 1,85 1,94 5.6 1,199 1,219 Xylene(ISO-MX) FOB Korea 634 627 1.1 663 739-1.3 825 932-11.5 1,135 1,65 1,15 6.5 1,199 1,21 Ethylene Chain HDPE FE Asia 1,29 1,29. 1,292 1,363-5.2 1,426 1,524-6.4 1,59 1,578 1,532.8 1,511 1,346 LDPE FE Asia 1,27 1, -2.3 1,34 1,36-4.1 1,413 1,57-6.2 1, 1,575 1,619 1.5 1,554 1,319 LLDPE FE Asia 1,275 1,28 -.4 1,291 1,346-4.1 1,48 1,469-4.1 1,562 1,542 1,516 1.3 1,494 1,298 MEG CFR China 756 783-3.4 796 831-4.3 853 845 1. 974 942 963 3.4 1,11 1,28 Propylene chain PP FE Asia 1,175 1,19-1.3 1,24 1,268-5. 1,388 1,453-4.5 1,499 1,51 1,486 -.1 1,488 1,48 AN(Acrylonitrile) SE Asia 1,88 1,88. 1,93 1,976-3.7 2,14 1,898 1,979 6.1 1,844 1,939 2-EH SE Asia 1,25 1,235-2.4 1,324 1,41-5.5 1,458 1,466 1,425 -.6 1,465 1,65 Rubber chain SBR SE Asia 1,675 1,715-2.3 1,788 1, -5.9 2,23 1,844 1,841 9.7 2,45 Styrene chain Styrene(SM) FOB Korea 831 848-2. 911 1,34-11.9 1,253 1,445-13.2 1,555 1,577 1,614-1.4 1,736 1,486 PS SE Asia 1,32 1,34-1.5 1, 1,617-7.2 1,725 1,746 1,791-1.2 1,874 1,598 EPS SE Asia 1,35 1,43-5.6 1,539 1,67-7.9 1,722 1,743 1,792-1.2 1,851 ABS SE Asia 1,655 1,735-4.6 1,81 1,897-5. 1,944 1,917 1,922 1.4 1,948 1,994 Vinyl chain EDC SE Asia 34 345-1.4 371 419-11.4 439 462 481-4.9 373 274 VCM SE Asia 82 825 -.6 865 932-7.2 941 94 961.1 89 867 Caustic Soda SE Asia 342 347-1.4 355 36-1.3 359 364 378-1.4 382 PVC SE Asia 875 88 -.6 938 997-6. 1,4 1,31 1,46.9 1,14 986 Polyester chain PX FOB Korea 849 838 1.3 862 926-7. 996 1,95-9. 1,323 1,234 1,264 7.2 1,383 1,497 TPA CFR China 67 673 -.4 684 724-5.6 764 815-6.3 975 93 93 8. 1,11 1,99 PET Bottle SE Asia 1,11 1,13-2.6 1,162 1,197-2.9 1,35 1,36 1,288 -.8 1,422 1,429 Phenol chain Phenol SE Asia 1,25 1,31-4.6 1,471 1,654-11. 1,664 1,543 1,423 7.8 1,415 1,447 Acetone SE Asia 95 97-6.7 1,93 1,154-5.3 1,179 1,185 1,171 -.5 1,127 1,15 BPA CFR Korea 1,57 1,57. 1,651 1,83-9.8 1,96 1,652 1,637 15.4 1,78 1,679 ETC. OX SE Asia 74 84-11.9 1,7-1.7 1,192 1,177 1,28 1.3 1,461 1,481 Caprolactam SE Asia 2,4 2,5 -.5 2,64 2,146-3.8 2,266 2,226 2,344 1.8 2,394 2,57 주 1: 213 년부터 Platts 가격기준. 이전가격은 Cischem 기준 / 주 2: 전주주말기준가격 Update 완료 (AN, BPA 제외 ) / 주 3: 빈칸은가격제공불가능 / 주 4: 면화는월물변경자료 : Platts, Cischem, 대신증권리서치센터 7
그림 8. 에틸렌가격및 Spread 추이그림 9. 프로필렌가격및 Spread 추이 Ethylene-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) 1, Ethylene( 좌 ) 1,4. $/ 톤 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, Propylene-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) Propylene( 좌 ) 867.5 $/ 톤 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 1. 부타디엔가격및 Spread 추이그림 11. 벤젠가격및 Spread 추이 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, BD-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) BD( 좌 ) 995. $/ 톤 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, Benzene-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) Benzene( 좌 ) 862.5 $/ 톤 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 12. 톨루엔가격및 Spread 추이그림 13. 자일렌가격및 Spread 추이 Toluene-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) 1, Toluene 1, 1, 727.5 $/ 톤 1, 1, 1, - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 45 35 25 15-5 - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 Xylene-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) Xylene( 좌 ) 73. $/ 톤 5 8
DAISHIN SECURITIES 그림 14. HDPE 가격및 Spread 추이그림 15. LDPE 가격및 Spread 추이 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, HDPE-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) HDPE( 좌 ) 1,38. $/ 톤 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, LDPE-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) LDPE( 좌 ) 1, 1,37. $/ 톤 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 16. LLDPE 가격및 Spread 추이그림 17. MEG 가격및 Spread 추이 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 LLDPE-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) LLDPE( 좌 ) 1,36. $/ 톤 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, MEG-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) MEG( 좌 ) 835. $/ 톤 - - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 18. ABS 가격및 Spread 추이 그림 19. PVC 가격및 Spread 추이 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, ABS-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) ABS( 좌 ) 1,74. $/ 톤 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 1, 1,25 1, 1,15 1, 1,5 1, 95 85 45 35 25 15-5 - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 PVC-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) PVC( 좌 ) 88. $/ 톤 5 9
그림 2. SM 가격및 Spread 추이그림 21. PS 가격및 Spread 추이 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, SM-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) SM( 좌 ) 1, 1,65. $/ 톤 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, PS-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) PS( 좌 ) 1,345. $/ 톤 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 22. PX 가격및 Spread 추이 그림 23. TPA 가격및 Spread 추이 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 PX-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) PX( 좌 ) 945.$/ 톤 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, TPA-.67*PX(1M Lagging, 우 ) TPA( 좌 ) 742.5$/ 톤 - - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 24. SBR(Styrene Butadiene Rubber) 가격및 Spread 추이 ($/Ton) 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 자료 : Platts, Cischem, 대신증권리서치센터 SBR-.81*BD(RHS) SBR(SEA, 152 grade, LHS) Butadiene(SEA, LHS) ($/Ton) 2, 2, 1, 1, 그림 25. OX 가격및 Spread 추이 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 OX-Naphtha(1M Lagging, 우 ) OX( 좌 ) 84. $/ 톤 1
DAISHIN SECURITIES 그림 26. 카프로락탐가격및 Spread 추이 그림 27. BPA 가격및 Spread 추이 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 카프로락탐 - 벤젠 (1m Lagging, 우 ) 카프로락탐 ( 좌 ) 2,5. $/ 톤 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, BPA Spread(1m Lagging, 우 ) BPA( 좌 ) 1,57. $/ 톤 - - 1, - 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 주 : BPA Spread=BPA-(Acetone*.28+Phenol*.88) 그림 28. 면화 (Cotton) 가격추이 (Cent/lbs) 면화가격 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 그림 29. 천연고무 (Natural Rubber) 가격추이 ($/Ton) Natural Rubber Price ($/Ton) 4,15 Natural Rubber Year Average($/Ton) 3,75 3,35 2,95 2,55 2,15 1,75 1,35 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 자료 : MRE, 대신증권리서치센터 (2) 중국제품별수요 그림 3. 중국에틸렌수요추이그림 31. 중국벤젠수요추이 (' Ton) 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 에틸렌명목수요 ( 좌 ) YoY Growth( 우 ) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% (' Ton) 75 65 55 45 벤젠명목수요 ( 좌 ) YoY Growth( 우 ) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-2% 35 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-2% 11
그림 32. 중국합성수지수요추이 그림 33. 중국 PE(Poly Ethylene) 수요추이 (' Ton) Synthetic Resin Demand( 좌 ) 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% (' Ton) Polyethylene Demand( 좌 ) 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% 그림 34. 중국 PP(Poly Propylene) 수요추이 그림 35. 중국 ABS 수요추이 (' Ton) PolyPropylene Demand( 좌 ) 1, YoY우 ) 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% (' Ton) ABS Demand( 좌 ) 45 35 25 15 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% 그림 36. 중국합성고무수요추이 그림 37. 중국폴리에스터수요추이 (' Ton) Synthetic Rubber Demand( 좌 ) 55 45 35 25 15 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% (' Ton) 1, Polyester Demand YoY(%) 3% 1, 25% 2% 1, 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 12
DAISHIN SECURITIES (3) 중국제품별수입 그림 38. 중국에틸렌수입추이 그림 39. 중국합성수지수입추이 (Ton), 18, 16, 14, 12,, 8, 6, 4, 2, CN: Import: Ethylene( 좌 ) 14% 12% % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% (' Ton) 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, CN: Import: Synthetic Resin( 좌 ) 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-6% 1, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-6% 그림 4. 중국 PE(Poly Ethylene) 수입추이 그림 41. 중국 PP(Poly Propylene) 수입추이 (' Ton) 1, 1, CN: Import: Synthetic Resin: Polyethylene( 좌 ) 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% (' Ton) 45 35 25 CN: Import: Synthetic Resin: Polypropylene( 좌 ) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-6% 15 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-5% 그림 42 중국 ABS 수입추이 그림 43. 중국 PVC(Poly Vinyl Chloride) 수입추이 (' Ton) 25 CN: Import: Synthetic Resin: ABS( 좌 ) 15 5 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% (' Ton) 18 CN: Import: Synthetic Resin: PVC( 좌 ) 8% 16 6% 14 4% 12 2% % 8 6-2% 4-4% 2-6% -8% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 13
그림 44. 중국합성고무수입추이 그림 45. 중국 BR(Butadiene Rubber) 수입추이 (' Ton) 21 19 17 CN: Import: Synthetic Rubber( 좌 ) 8% 6% 4% (Ton) 16, 14, 12, CN: Import: BR( 좌 ) 15% % 15 2% 1, 5% 13 % 8, 11-2% 6, % 9 7-4% -6% 4, 2, -5% 5 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-8% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 -% 그림 46. 중국 SBR(Styrene Butadiene Rubber) 수입추이 그림 47. 중국 PX(Para Xylene) 수입추이 (' Ton) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CN: Import: SBR( 좌 ) % 15% % 5% % -5% (Ton) 1,, 1,,,,,, CN: Import: PX( 좌 ) % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 -% 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1-4% 그림 48. 중국 EG(Ethylene Glycol) 수입추이 그림 49. 중국폴리에스터수입추이 (Ton) CN: Import: Ethylene Glycol 1,,,,,,,,,, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% (Ton th) 7 CN: Import: Polyester( 좌 ) 6 5 4 3 2 1 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 25% % 15% % 5% % -5% -% 14
DAISHIN SECURITIES (4) 중국제품별재고추이 그림 5. 중국동부 SM(Styrene Monomer) 재고추이 (Ton) Styrene Inventories E China, 18, 16, 14, 12,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 6.12 7.12 8.12 9.12 1.12 11.12 12.12 13.12 14.1 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 그림 51. 중국동부 MX(Mixed Xylene) 재고추이 (Ton) Mixed Xylenes Inventories EChina 16, 14, 12,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 6.12 7.12 8.12 9.12 1.12 11.12 12.12 13.12 14.1 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 그림 52. 중국동부톨루엔재고추이 그림 53. 중국화학섬유재고추이 (Ton) 25, Toluene Inventories E China (bn RMB) 47 CN: Product Inventory: Chemical Fiber RMB bn, 45 15, 43 41, 39 5, 37 6.12 7.12 8.12 9.12 1.12 11.12 12.12 13.12 14.1 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 35 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 그림 54. 중국합성섬유재고추이 그림 55. 중국합성섬유 (Monomer) 재고추이 (mn RMB) 6, 58, CN: Synthetic Fiber: Inventory (mn RMB) 12, 11, CN: Synthetic Fiber Monomer: Product Inventory RMB mn 56, 54, 52, 1, 9, 5, 8, 48, 7, 46, 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 6, 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 15
그림 56. 중국폴리프로필렌 (PP) 섬유재고추이 (mn RMB) 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 CN: Polypropylene Fiber: Product Inventory RMB mn 17 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 그림 57. 중국합성고무재고추이 (mn RMB) 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, CN: Synthetic Rubber: Product Inventory RMB mn 2, 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 그림 58. 중국폴리에스터재고추이 (mn RMB) 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 22, 21, 2, 19, CN: Polyester Fiber: Product Inventory RMB mn 18, 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 그림 59. 중국스판덱스재고추이 (mn RMB) 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, CN: Spandex Fiber: Product Inventory RMB mn 1, 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 그림 6. 중국 PE/PP 재고 Index(211.1.1=) 그림 61. 중국 PTA 재고일수추이 (Indexed) 12 11 중국 PE/PP 재고 Index(211.1.1=) ( 일 ) 25 2 PTA Plant(Average) Polyester Plant(Average) 15 9 8 1 7 5 6 1.12 11.6 11.12 12.6 12.12 13.6 13.12 14.6 자료 : WIND, 대신증권리서치센터 11.11 12.5 12.11 13.5 13.11 14.5 14.11 자료 : WIND, 대신증권리서치센터 16
DAISHIN SECURITIES 그림 62. 중국타이어재고추이 (bn RMB) 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 CN: Tire: YoY: Product Inventory(LHS) CN: Tire: YoY: Inventory(RHS) 15 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 그림 63. 중국 Qingdao 전체고무재고추이 ( 천톤 ) Qingdao Total Rubber Inventory 35 25 15 5 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 그림 64. 중국 Qingdao 합성고무재고추이 그림 65. 중국 Qingdao 천연고무재고추이 ( 천톤 ) 6 Synthetic Rubber Inventory 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 ( 천톤 ) Natural Rubber Inventory 25 15 5 1.1 1.7 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 자료 : Platts, 대신증권리서치센터 그림 66. 일본 Crude Rubber 재고추이그림 67. 일본 Synthetic Rubber( 합성고무 ) 재고추이 ( 톤 ) 25, Crude Rubber ( 톤 ) 3, SR Solid 2, 2, 15, 2, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 자료 : RTAJ, 대신증권리서치센터 9.12 1.12 11.12 12.12 13.12 자료 : RTAJ, 대신증권리서치센터 17
4. REFINING Update (1) Price & Margin Trend 그림 68. Petroleum Price Trend Daily Weekly Average Montly Average Quarterly Average Yearly Average ( 단위 : $/bbl, %) 12/12 12/11 Chg. 12-2nd 12-1st Chg. Nov-14 Oct-14 Chg. 3Q14 2Q14 Chg. '13 '12 환율 / 유가 / 납사 KRW/USD( 원 / 달러 ) 1,118 1,114.3 1,16 1,113 -.6 1,97 1,61 3.4 1,26 1,29 -.3 1,95 1,126 Dubai($/bbl) 65.6 66.2 -.9 62.9 67.2-6.3 77.1 87.4-11.8 11.6 16. -4.2 15.3 19.1 WTI($/bbl) 63.1 65.8-4.1 61.1 67.2-9. 75.8 85.1-11. 97.4 13.1-5.6 97.9 94.3 Brent($/bbl) 66. 67.4-2. 64.3 69.8-7.9 79.3 88.4-1.3 12.7 19.8-6.4 18.8 111.6 석유제품 ($/bbl, 증감 ) Gasoline 95RON 71.8 72.5-1.1 74.2 8.3-6.1 9.4 12.3-11.9 114.6 122. -7.4 119.5 123.1 Diesel.5% 76.9 77.7-1. 79.3 84.2-4.9 94.1 11.4-7.3 115.9 122.1-6.2 123.5 126.1 Kerosene 78.4 79.3-1.1 81. 86.3-5.2 96.4 12.7-6.2 116. 12.4-4.4 123.2 126.6 B-C 18cst 56.1 57. -1.5 58.2 62.4-4.2 69.8 78.4-8.6 9.9 93.3-2.4 95.2 13.2 Naphtha 54. 54.3 -.4 56.7 64.5-7.8 71.8 81.4-9.6 99.9 15.1-5.2 11.6 13.4 Crack to Dubai($/bbl, 증감 ) Gasoline 6.1 6.3 -.2 11.3 13.1-1.8 13.3 14.9-1.6 13. 16. -3. 14.2 14.1 Gas Oil( 경유 ) 11.3 11.5 -.2 16.4 17. -.6 17. 14. 3. 14.3 16.1-1.8 18.2 17.1 Jet Kerosene( 등유 ) 12.8 13. -.2 18.1 19.1-1. 19.3 15.3 4. 14.4 14.3.1 17.8 17.5 Fuel-Oil(B-C) -9.5-9.3 -.2-4.7-4.8.1-7.3-9. 1.7-1.7-12.7 2.1-1.1-5.9 Naphtha -11.6-12..4-6.2-2.7-3.6-5.3-6..7-1.7 -.9 -.8-3.7-5.7 Margin($/bbl, 증감 ) Simple Crack 4.8 4.5.3 4.7 5.5 -.9 4.3 3. 1.3 2.5 2.8 -.4 3.8 5.2 Complex Crack 9.5 9.2.2 9.4 1.4-1. 9.9 8.9 1. 7.6 8.5 -.9 9.4 1.5 자료 : Petronet, 대신증권리서치센터 그림 69. 싱가폴단순 / 복합정제마진추이 그림 7. 제품별 Crack 마진추이 (US$/bbl) Singapore Simple Crack 18 Singapore Complex Crack 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 자료 : Petronet, 대신증권리서치센터 (US$/bbl) 납사 Crack 가솔린 Crack 3 등유 Crack 경유 Crack 25 B-C Crack 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 자료 : Petronet, 대신증권리서치센터 18
DAISHIN SECURITIES 그림 71. 휘발유 / 납사 /B-C Crack 추이그림 72. 등 / 경유 Crack 추이 (US$/bbl) 3 납사 Crack 가솔린 Crack 25 B-C Crack 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 자료 : Petronet, 대신증권리서치센터 (US$/bbl) 28 등유 Crack 경유 Crack 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 자료 : Petronet, 대신증권리서치센터 (2) 원유 & 정제동향 그림 73. WTI-Brent 유종간가격차이 ( 달러 /bbl) WTI-Brent Spread( 우 ) 12 WTI( 좌 ) Brent( 좌 ) 11 9 8 7 6 ( 달러 /bbl) -1-12 -14-16 5-18 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 2-2 -4-6 -8 그림 74. 글로벌원유수요 (mn b/d) 글로벌원유수요 94 93.4 93.1 92.9 93.4 93 93.3 93.2 92 91.2 91 9.3 9.9 91.1 9 89 88 87 214 213년 212년 86 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 그림 75. 글로벌원유공급그림 76. 글로벌원유공급 - OPEC (mn b/d) 96 95 94 93 92 91 9 89 88 92.8 93.6 92.2 92.7 글로벌원유공급 92.4 92.7 93.1 93.8 94.4 95.3 214 213 년 212 년 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (mn b/d) 33 공급-OPEC 32 31 3.3 3.5 3 29.6 3.4 3.5 29.3 3.2 29 29.7 29.3 29.6 28 214년 213년 212년 27 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 19
그림 77. 글로벌원유공급 Non OPEC 그림 78. 글로벌정유설비조업중단추이 (mn b/d) 57 공급 - Non-OPEC 56 55.9 54.6 55 54.3 54.4 54.5 55 54 54.8 54.5 54.2 54.2 53 52 51 5 214년 213년 212년 49 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (mn b/d) 글로벌정유설비조업중단 ( 좌 ) 17 % of capa( 우 ) 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 그림 79. 지역별정제설비가동률추이 자료 : OPEC, 대신증권리서치센터 (3) 석유제품수요 & Indicators 그림 8. 미국휘발유수요추이그림 81. 미국 Distillate 수요추이 (th b/d) 1, 9, 212 년 213 년 214 년 '8~'13 년평균 (th b/d) 5, 5, 212 년 213 년 214 년 '8~'13 년평균 9, 5, 9, 5, 9, 4, 9, 4, 8, 4, 8, 4, 8, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 4, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2
DAISHIN SECURITIES 그림 82. 중국휘발유수요추이그림 83. 중국등 / 경유수요추이 (' Ton) 휘발유수요 ( 좌 ) 2, 휘발유수요증가율 ( 우 ) 25% 2, 2% 2, 15% 2, 1% 1, 5% 1, 1, % 1, -5% 1, -1% 9.1 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 (' b/d) 등 / 경유수요 ( 좌 ) 8, 등 / 경유수요증가율 ( 우 ) 35% 3% 7, 25% 2% 6, 15% 1% 5, 5% 4, % -5% 3, -1% -15% 2, -2% 9.1 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 84. 중국주요석유제품수요추이 (' Ton) 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 휘발유 + 등 / 경유 +FO Total( 좌 ) 휘발유 + 등 / 경유 +FO Total 증가율 ( 우 ) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% 4, -1% 9.1 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 그림 85. 중국석유제품별순수입추이 (' Ton) 순수입 FO 등 / 경유 가솔린 납사 Total - - 순수출 - 8.1 9.1 1.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15 그림 86. 미국주요항구수입물량추이 그림 87. 미국주요항구수출물량추이 (TEUs), 주요항구수입물량 (3MA) YoY 3% (TEUs) 34, 주요항구수출물량 (3MA) YoY 4% 75,, 65, 2% 1% 32,, 28, 3% 2% 1%, % 26, % 55,, 45, -1% -2% 24, 22,, -1% -2% -3%, 6.1 8.1 1.1 12.1 14.1-3% 18, 6.1 8.1 1.1 12.1 14.1-4% 21
(4) 지역 / 제품별재고추이 그림 88. 싱가폴총석유제품재고추이 그림 89. 싱가폴 Lt. Distillate 재고추이 (' bbl) 6, 싱가폴총석유제품재고 (' bbl) 16, 싱가폴 Lt. distillate 재고 5, 14, 4, 12, 3, 1, 2, 8, 1, '3~'12 Range '3~'12 average 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 6, 4, '3~'12 Range '3~'12 average 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 그림 9. 싱가폴 Mid. Distillate 재고추이그림 91. 싱가폴 Residue 재고추이 (' bbl) 싱가폴 Mid distillate 재고 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, '3~'12 Range '3~'12 average 2, 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 (' bbl) 싱가폴 Residue 재고 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, '3~'12 Range '3~'12 average 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 그림 92. 유럽휘발유재고추이그림 93. 유럽 Gas Oil 재고추이 (' bbl) 1, 유럽가솔린재고 (' bbl) 3, 유럽 GO 재고 1, 1, 3, 2, 2, '9~'12 Range '9~'12 Average 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 1, 1, '9~'12 Range '9~'12 Average 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 22
DAISHIN SECURITIES 그림 94. 유럽 Fuel-Oil 재고추이그림 95. 유럽 Jet Kerosene 재고추이 (' bbl) 유럽 FO 재고 1, 1, '9~'12 Range '9~'12 Average 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 (' bbl) 유럽 JET 재고 '9~'12 Range '9~'12 Average 213 214 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 [Compliance Notice] 금융투자업규정 4-2 조 1 항 5 호사목에따라작성일현재사전고지와관련한사항이없으며, 당사의금융투자분석사는자료작성일현재본자료에관련하여재산적이해관계가없습니다. 당사는동자료에언급된종목과계열회사의관계가없으며당사의금융투자분석사는본자료의작성과관련하여외부부당한압력이나간섭을받지않고본인의의견을정확하게반영하였습니다. ( 담당자 : 윤재성 ) 본자료는투자자들의투자판단에참고가되는정보제공을목적으로배포되는자료입니다. 본자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터의추정치로서오차가발생할수있으며정확성이나완벽성은보장하지않습니다. 본자료를이용하시는분은동자료와관련한투자의최종결정은자신의판단으로하시기바랍니다. 23