2012-07-31 In-Depth Report, 12-81 삼성테크윈 (012450) 삼각편대가이끄는성장 매수 ( 신규편입 ) T.P 90,000 원 ( 신규편입 ) Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com +82-3773-9005 Company Data 자본금 2,657 억원 발행주식수 5,313 만주 자사주 1 만주 액면가 5,000 원 시가총액 38,466 억원 주요주주 삼성전자 25.46% 삼성물산 4.28% 외국인지분률 15.10% 배당수익률 0.70% Stock Data 주가 (12/07/27) 72,400 원 KOSPI 1829.16 pt 52주 Beta 1.17 52 주최고가 79,900 원 52 주최저가 49,800 원 60일평균거래대금 302 억원 주가및상대수익률 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 삼성테크윈 ( 원 ) KOSPI 대비상대주가 11.7 11.10 12.1 12.4 12 주가상승률 절대주가 상대주가 1개월 -6.1% -6.7% 6개월 35.1% 45.1% 12 개월 -10.3% 6.6% 투자의견매수, 목표주가 90,000 원 3 개사업부가성장동력 : SS, IMS, Power System 2012 년매출액 3 조 907 억원, 영업이익 1,983 억원전망 영업실적및투자지표 구분 단위 200912 201012 201112 201212F 201312F 201412F 매출액 십억원 2,691 2,924 2,948 3,091 3,726 4,241 yoy % 15.0 8.7 0.8 4.9 20.5 13.8 조정영업이익 십억원 207 214 88 195 286 383 yoy % 45.2 3.4-58.7 120.7 46.5 34.0 발표영업이익 십억원 220 228 251 198 286 383 EBITDA 십억원 284 310 188 295 401 511 세전이익 십억원 253 289 248 203 291 390 순이익 ( 지배주주 ) 십억원 175 233 229 175 250 336 발표영업이익률 % % 8.18 7.80 8.51 6.42 7.67 9.02 EBITDA% % 10.56 10.60 6.39 9.53 10.76 12.05 순이익률 % 6.46 8.01 7.80 5.68 6.74 7.93 EPS 원 3,761 4,559 4,329 3,282 4,703 6,309 PER 배 24.1 22.7 12.3 22.1 15.4 11.5 PBR 배 4.5 4.4 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.5 EV/EBITDA 배 18.2 20.4 19.0 15.3 11.0 8.3 ROE % 16.3 20.0 15.9 10.0 12.3 13.9 순차입금 십억원 221 692 599 506 379 193 부채비율 % 137.7 128.1 96.5 87.8 77.6 70.1 자료 : SK 증권주 ) EPS 는계속사업이익으로계상.
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 Contents 1. Valuation 3 2. 삼각편대체제 7 3. 실적전망 16 4. Appendix 17 2
삼성테크윈 (012450) 1. Valuation 투자의견매수, 목표주가 90,000 원제시 투자의견매수목표주가 90,000 원제시 삼성테크윈 DCF 밸류에이션 DCF Model I Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sales 2,948 3,091 3,726 4,352 5,000 5,500 6,050 6,595 7,056 7,409 7,631 growth(%) 4.9% 20.6% 16.8% 14.9% 10.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% EBIT 251 198 286 393 450 495 545 594 635 667 687 growth(%) -20.9% 44.0% 37.5% 14.6% 10.0% 10.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% Margin(%) 8.5% 6.4% 7.7% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% * EBITDA 351 291 380 484 538 581 726 791 847 889 916 * EBITDA margin(%) 11.9% 9.4% 10.2% 11.1% 10.8% 10.6% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% Tax rate(%) 6.9% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% NOPLAT 233 169 243 334 383 421 463 504 540 567 584 Depr. & amort. 100 93 94 91 88 86 182 198 212 222 229 Gross Cash Flow 333 262 337 425 471 506 644 702 751 789 813 Net Working Capital inc(d 88 102 145 69 60 80 136 89 60 51 43 Capex 60 58 59 59 60 61 86 88 91 94 98 Investing Cash Flow 161 204 129 120 141 223 177 151 145 141 Free Cash Flow 101 133 296 350 366 422 525 601 644 672 Cost of Equity 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% Risk Free 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Beta 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Risk Premium 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Cost of Debt 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% WACC 10.2% 10.2% 10.3% 10.3% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% NPV of FCF 2,396 101 120 244 261 247 258 292 302 293 277 NPV of CV 2,107 2,325 2,566 2,832 3,126 NOPLAT 584 584 584 584 584 ROIC 10.4% 0 0 0 0 WACC 10.4% 0 0 0 0 Terminal Growth 0.0% 0 0 0 0 CV 5,634 5,634 5,634 5,634 5,634 Enterprize Value 4,504 4,855 5,210 5,422 5,597 Non-Operating Value 1,156 1,274 1,404 1,548 1,708 Debt 787 867 956 1,054 1,163 Net Enterprize Value 4,873 5,262 5,658 5,916 6,142 Equity Value 4,873 5,262 5,658 5,916 6,142 No. of Shares(Common, t 53,130 53,130 53,130 53,130 53,130 Fair Price -DCF 91,712 99,038 106,490 111,347 115,602 자료 : 삼성테크윈, SK 증권 3
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 삼성테크윈 PBR 추이 Historical PBR Average 2.8 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 삼성테크윈 PBR Band Chart 삼성테크윈 PER Band Chart 4.5배 3.5배 3.0배 2.0배 1.0배 31배 20배 14배 8배 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 삼성테크윈 Historical 밸류에이션추이 ( 단위 : 원, 배, %) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average PER 11.2 15.9 19.5 46.4 21.4 22.2 17.0 21.9 PBR 1.3 2.9 3.8 3.1 3.4 4.1 2.4 3.0 EPS 1,122 2,051 2,600 956 3,164 4,394 4,319 2,657.9 BPS 9,385 11,127 13,391 14,093 20,118 23,830 30,519 17,494.6 ROE 12.7 20.3 21.4 7.0 15.9 20.0 15.9 16.2 자료 : FN Guide, SK 증권 4
삼성테크윈 (012450) 글로벌방위산업체밸류에이션 Table ( 단위 : 배, %) Compay Price Mkt Cap P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%) (USD) (USD mn) 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E SAMSUNG TECHWIN 62.26 3,308 20.5 15.2 2.2 2.0 14.6 11.8 13.0% 14.4% BOEING 72.97 54,658 15.9 12.9 9.1 6.6 7.3 6.4 54.9% 47.4% LOCKHEED MARTIN 87.14 28,289 11.0 10.4 16.3 13.2 6.4 6.3 239.4% 529.8% EADS 33.33-14.7 10.6 2.1 1.8 - - 19.4% 18.6% DOOSAN INFRACORE 15.52 2,618 11.5 7.5 1.5 1.3 9.1 8.1 16.4% 16.3% NORTHROP GRUMMAN 63.49 15,968 9.2 9.1 1.5 1.4 5.1 5.2 15.4% 15.3% RAYTHEON 55.77 18,590 10.7 9.9 2.3 2.2 6.2 6.0 25.4% 33.4% BAE SYSTEMS 19.34 15,708 7.6 - - - - - - - THALES 32.85 6,646 9.1 7.9 1.2 1.1 3.8 3.5 14.0% 13.4% 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 글로벌반도체장비밸류에이션 Table ( 단위 : 배, %) Compay Price Mkt Cap P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%) (USD) (USD mn) 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E APPLIED MATERIALS 10.38 13,298 13.1 9.9 1.6 1.4 7.1 6.1 13.7% 12.2% TOKYO ELECTRON 44.19 7,981 15.3 19.3 1.0 1.0 4.7 5.3 5.1% 8.6% ASML HOLDING 51.42 21,590 15.3 12.6 4.3 3.5 10.3 8.9 28.8% 31.8% ADVANTEST 13.54 2,701-17.3 1.4 1.3 27.3 8.0 8.0% 10.0% KLA-TENCOR 45.59 7,628 10.2 9.6 2.3 2.0 5.4 5.1 21.5% 21.3% DISCO 52.17 1,774 21.7 14.6 1.4 1.3 8.7 6.7 9.1% 9.7% 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 글로벌기계업체밸류에이션 Table(I) ( 단위 : 배, %) Compay Price Mkt Cap P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%) (USD) (USD mn) 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES 208.56 15,851 8.0 7.0 1.0 0.9 6.3 6.0 12.0% 12.5% DOOSAN HEAVY INDUSTRIES 50.46 5,341 11.8 8.7 1.2 1.1 11.2 9.3 12.3% 13.1% LS INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS 53.08 1,592 13.8 10.9 2.1 1.9 9.1 7.6 17.1% 17.2% KOMATSU 21.85 21,486 9.2 8.6 1.6 1.5 7.0 6.3 17.8% 16.6% HITACHI CONSTRUCTION MACHINE 17.22 3,704 11.9 9.1 0.9 0.8 6.8 6.0 9.5% 9.3% MITSUBISHI 20.20 33,393 5.6 5.5 0.8 0.7 12.6 12.4 12.8% 12.5% KAWASAKI KISEN KAISHA 1.54 1,182-274.2 0.4 0.4 95.1 8.2 3.7% 4.5% IHI 2.06 3,028 10.2 8.3 0.9 0.9 5.7 5.5 11.2% 10.1% THK 16.88 2,259 16.8 12.2 1.0 0.9 3.9 3.6 7.4% 8.2% MORI SEIKI 7.98 945 15.2 10.6 0.7 0.7 10.5 9.1 6.9% 6.0% 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 5
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 글로벌기계업체밸류에이션 Table(II) ( 단위 : 배, %) Compay Price Mkt Cap P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%) (USD) (USD mn) 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E CATERPILLAR 81.15 52,950 8.5 7.4 2.9 2.2 7.2 6.5 36.9% 33.0% GENERAL ELECTRIC 19.59 207,562 12.7 11.3 1.7 1.6 17.1 15.4 14.0% 15.1% VOLVO AB-B SHS 10.99 23,385 9.3 7.9 1.7 1.5 6.7 6.1 19.9% 18.7% SIEMENS AG-REG 84.06 76,851 11.1 9.8 1.8 1.6 7.4 6.6 17.4% 17.1% HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL 54.48 42,450 12.1 10.9 3.2 2.7 7.3 6.6 27.6% 25.4% ROCKWELL AUTOMATION 62.42 8,888 12.0 10.7 4.0 3.3 7.5 6.8 33.9% 30.3% OMRON 18.97 4,535 22.9 12.1 1.0 1.0 5.6 4.8 8.2% 9.6% ABB LTD-SPON 16.22 37,545 11.5 10.1 2.4 2.2 - - 20.2% 19.6% SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC 53.30 29,258 11.0 10.1 1.4 1.3 7.5 7.0 12.9% 13.3% 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 6
삼성테크윈 (012450) 2. 삼각편대 (SS, IMS, Power) 체제 Security Solutions 반도체장비 (IMS) Power System 사업부성장으로 15 년까지매출 7 조계획 (1) 3 개사업부가성장동력 : SS, IMS, Power System SS, IMS, Power System, 3 개의사업부가성장동력 ( 단위 : 십억원, %) (Unit: 십억원 ) 12 년대비 46.4% 성장 12 년대비 47.6% 성장 12 년대비 104.5% 성장 자료 : SK 증권 7
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 네트워크카메라시장내경쟁력강화예상 (2) Security Solutions 글로벌보안카메라시장전망 ( 단위 : Bil USD) (USD Billion) 25 Others Analogue Video Surveillance 20 Network Video Surveillance 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2015E 2016E 자료 : IMS Research 8
삼성테크윈 (012450) 글로벌네트워크보안카메라시장전망 ( 단위 : Bil USD) (USD Billion) 자료 : IMS Research 글로벌보안카메라시장점유율추이 2010 2011 1 Panasonic System Networks (PSN) Axis Communications 2 Samsung Techwin Panasonic System Networks (PSN) 3 Axis Communications Samsung Techwin 4 Bosch Security Systems Hikvision 5 Pelco Pelco 자료 : IMS Research 글로벌네크워크보안카메라시장점유율추이 2010 2011 1 Axis Communications Axis Communications 2 Panasonic System Networks (PSN) Panasonics System Networks (PSN) 3 Sony Sony 4 Mobotix Hikvision 5 Bosch Security Systems Mobotix 자료 : IMS Research 9
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 고속칩마운트시장점유율확대준비완료 삼성전자내점유율확대기대 (3) 반도체장비 (IMS) 스마트폰출하량전망 (Unit: 백만개 ) 태블릿출하량전망 (Unit: 백만개 ) Smart Phone Shipment 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 (Unit : Mil Units) 2012 년성장율 +35.7% 각형 / 폴리머전지 300 (Unit: Mil Units) 폴리머전지 250 Tablet Shipment 200 150 2012년성장율 +62.8% 100 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 자료 : Gartner, SK 증권 자료 : Gartner, SK 증권 글로벌 SMT 시장분기별추이 ( 단위 : Mil USD) (Mil. USD) 자료 : 업계자료, SK 증권 10
삼성테크윈 (012450) 글로벌 SMT 시장연간전망 ( 단위 : Mil USD) (Mil. USD) 자료 : 업계자료, SK 증권 Flip Chip Bonder(Mounter) 장비시장전망 (Mil. USD) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 ( 단위 : Mil USD) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-40% 자료 : Gartner, SK 증권 11
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 고부가가치에너지장비개발성장시장진입기대 삼성중공업, 삼성엔지니어링과협력을할것으로예상 (4) 파워시스템 LNG-FPSO 시장전망 ( 단위 : Bil USD) (Bil. USD) 자료 : Flex-LNG, SK 증권 삼성중공업 Shell LNG FPSO 프로젝트 Shell LNG FPSO 프로젝트 공급계획 15 년간 10 척 (50 억불 / 척 ) 지역 호주북서부지역 생산량 3.5 mtpa 선형 450k cbm 진행현황 1호선계약완료 자료 : 삼성중공업, SK 증권 12
삼성테크윈 (012450) LNG-FPSO 개념도 ( 단위 : Bil USD) 자료 : 언론자료, SK 증권 13
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 포텐셜높은신소재그래핀양산위한 R&D 진행중 (5) 그래핀 그래핀시장전망 ( 단위 : 십억달러 ) (Unit : Bil USD) 자료 : 지식경제부, SK 증권 그래핀활용한터치패널 자료 : 지식경제부, SK 증권 14
삼성테크윈 (012450) 그래핀투명전극의장점 자료 : 성균관대, SK 증권 그래핀활용한터치패널 자료 : 전자부품연구원, SK 증권 15
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 3. 실적전망 2012 년매출액 3 조 907 억원, 영업이익 1,983 억원전망 2012 년매출액 3 조 907 억원, 영업이익 1,983 억원전망 삼성테크윈실적전망 Table ( 단위 : 십억원, %) 1Q12 2Q12P 3Q12E 4Q12E 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 2011 2012E 2013E Revenue 634.6 753.6 823.1 879.4 876.3 972.0 909.4 968.2 2,947.3 3,090.7 3,725.9 Security & Solution 180.2 198.0 200.0 210.0 225.6 233.6 239.7 241.1 681.2 788.2 940.0 MDS 82.9 83.0 87.6 93.8 89.4 100.6 90.9 98.9 337.4 347.4 379.7 IMS 60.5 89.7 96.9 106.6 117.2 129.0 141.9 156.1 249.4 353.7 544.1 Power System 148.0 202.0 245.0 266.1 271.6 319.2 237.7 261.5 805.7 861.0 1,090.0 Defense 163.0 180.9 193.6 202.9 172.5 189.7 199.2 210.7 873.6 740.4 772.1 Operating Profit 32.6 53.0 57.0 55.7 59.9 76.3 74.0 75.3 45.9 198.3 285.6 Security & Solution 18.9 22.8 23.0 22.0 25.0 29.0 26.3 26.5 40.0 86.7 106.9 MDS 0.2 0.2 0.0-0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0-66.9-0.6 3.8 IMS 4.1 8.3 10.2 10.7 7.0 10.6 14.9 14.8-2.7 33.3 47.3 Power System 3.3 12.3 13.7 13.8 16.5 21.7 17.1 19.1 12.4 43.2 74.4 Defense 6.1 9.4 10.1 10.1 10.5 14.0 14.7 13.9 63.1 35.7 53.2 Operating Profit Margin 5.1% 7.0% 6.9% 6.3% 6.8% 7.9% 8.1% 7.8% 1.6% 6.4% 7.7% Security & Solution 10.5% 11.5% 11.5% 10.5% 11.1% 12.4% 11.0% 11.0% 5.9% 11.0% 11.4% MDS 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% -19.8% -0.2% 1.0% IMS 6.8% 9.3% 10.5% 10.0% 6.0% 8.2% 10.5% 9.5% -1.1% 9.4% 8.7% Power System 2.2% 6.1% 5.6% 5.2% 6.1% 6.8% 7.2% 7.3% 1.5% 5.0% 6.8% Defense 3.7% 5.2% 5.2% 5.0% 6.1% 7.4% 7.4% 6.6% 7.2% 4.8% 6.9% 자료 : 삼성테크윈, SK 증권 16
삼성테크윈 (012450) 4. Appendix - Peer Group Valuation 글로벌방위산업체 Peer Group Table SAMSUNG LOCKHEED DOOSAN NORTHROP RAYTHEON BAE BOEING EADS TECHWIN MARTIN INFRACORE GRUMMAN COMPANY SYSTEMS THALES Stock Price(7/27, USD) 63.64 75.51 90.20 36.94 15.91 65.90 55.67 19.78 31.64 Market Cap(Mil USD) 3,381 56,768 29,262-2,683 16,291 18,483 16,066 6,402 Income Statement Sales 2010 2,578 68,571 46,598 62,837 7,639 26,593 25,151 31,391 17,308 (Mil USD) 2011 2,694 80,643 45,701 65,460 7,824 25,149 24,565 30,341 16,944 2012E 3,125 87,187 45,043 69,705 8,407 24,548 24,201-17,007 2013E 3,583 94,147 44,361 72,909 8,940 24,179 23,723-17,335 Operating Profit 2010 232 5,545 3,900 1,794 687 3,198 2,742 2,838 942 (Mil USD) 2011 164 6,037 4,227 3,023 606 2,915 2,847 3,017 1,025 2012E 221 7,093 4,229 4,164 711 2,753 2,897 2,972 1,163 2013E 283 8,131 4,312 4,860 792 2,732 2,963-1,304 EBITDA 2010 289 7,190 4,693 4,020 921 3,770 3,175 3,572 1,522 (Mil USD) 2011 251 7,663 5,010 5,273 840 3,437 3,268 3,638 1,587 2012E 309 8,688 5,018 6,489 946 3,307 3,325-1,720 2013E 373 9,775 5,158 7,160 1,002 3,246 3,437-1,795 Net Income 2010 208 3,392 2,596 984 335 1,988 1,792 2,403 677 (Mil USD) 2011 161 3,570 2,640 1,828 209 1,805 1,767 2,041 680 2012E 214 4,254 2,618 2,562 332 1,684 1,804-779 2013E 271 4,949 2,754 3,014 390 1,654 1,874-887 EPS 2010 3.97 4.51 7.63 1.28 1.97 7.01 5.05 2.87 3.49 (USD) 2011 3.00 4.67 8.09 2.28 1.24 7.10 5.28 2.53 3.46 2012E 4.04 5.59 8.35 3.13 1.97 7.00 5.62-4.01 2013E 5.11 6.55 9.15 3.73 2.31 7.26 6.12-4.46 BPS 2010 22.67 7.19 8.69 15.46 8.64 44.10 28.03-26.98 (USD) 2011 28.17 8.19 7.31 15.55 10.56 42.67 24.47-27.32 2012E 31.35 11.50 9.25 18.12 11.99 45.53 25.02-29.66 2013E 36.13 15.36 12.63 21.35 13.94 49.80 27.06-33.28 Profitability OP Margin 2010 9.0% 8.1% 8.4% 2.9% 9.0% 12.0% 10.9% 9.0% 5.4% 2011 6.1% 7.5% 9.2% 4.6% 7.8% 11.6% 11.6% 9.9% 6.1% 2012E 7.1% 8.1% 9.4% 6.0% 8.5% 11.2% 12.0% - 6.8% 2013E 7.9% 8.6% 9.7% 6.7% 8.9% 11.3% 12.5% - 7.5% EBITDA Margin 2010 11.2% 10.5% 10.1% 6.4% 12.1% 14.2% 12.6% 11.4% 8.8% 2011 9.3% 9.5% 11.0% 8.1% 10.7% 13.7% 13.3% 12.0% 9.4% 2012E 9.9% 10.0% 11.1% 9.3% 11.3% 13.5% 13.7% - 10.1% 2013E 10.4% 10.4% 11.6% 9.8% 11.2% 13.4% 14.5% - 10.4% Net Income Margin 2010 8.1% 4.9% 5.6% 1.6% 4.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.7% 3.9% 2011 6.0% 4.4% 5.8% 2.8% 2.7% 7.2% 7.2% 6.7% 4.0% 2012E 6.9% 4.9% 5.8% 3.7% 4.0% 6.9% 7.5% - 4.6% 2013E 7.6% 5.3% 6.2% 4.1% 4.4% 6.8% 7.9% - 5.1% ROE 2010 17.6% 76.6% 78.9% 8.0% 21.4% 15.8% 17.9% 27.9% 12.4% 2011 10.9% 66.2% 158.3% 15.5% 11.5% 16.7% 21.4% - 12.0% 2012E 13.0% 54.2% 117.6% 19.4% 15.8% 15.3% 23.4% - 13.6% 2013E 14.4% 47.4% 104.1% 18.6% 16.0% 14.9% 29.8% - 13.3% Multiple P/E 2012E 21.0 16.2 11.2 16.1 12.8 9.3 10.5 7.7 9.1 2013E 15.6 13.5 10.8 11.8 8.0 9.4 9.9-7.9 P/B 2012E 2.2 9.2 12.3 2.4 1.5 1.5 2.3-1.1 2013E 2.0 6.6 9.8 2.0 1.3 1.4 2.2-1.1 EV/EBITDA 2012E 14.7 7.5 6.4-9.3 5.0 6.2-3.9 2013E 11.9 6.6 6.4-8.2 5.2 6.1-3.6 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 17
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 글로벌반도체장비업체 Peer Group Table APPLIED MATERIAL TOKYO ELECTRON ASML HOLDING ADVANTEST KLA-TENCOR DISCO Stock Price(7/27, USD) 10.90 45.19 57.86 12.45 50.91 50.60 Market Cap(Mil USD) 13,964 8,161 24,291 2,485 8,519 1,721 Income Statement Sales 2010 10,436 8,293 7,096 1,226 3,155 1,216 (Mil USD) 2011 9,005 7,777 5,983 1,670 3,156 1,105 2012E 9,551 7,448 7,000 2,013 3,204 1,230 2013E 9,864 8,279 7,736 2,192 3,434 1,290 Operating Profit 2010 2,404 1,165 2,048 88 1,172 190 (Mil USD) 2011 1,357 737 1,543-1 1,032 122 2012E 1,686 588 1,946 201 968 178 2013E 1,931 915 2,264 270 1,114 202 EBITDA 2010 2,646 1,445 2,263 141 1,256 272 (Mil USD) 2011 1,827 1,054 1,799 81 1,134 196 2012E 2,061 897 2,106 287 1,061 258 2013E 2,262 1,234 2,465 356 1,188 285 Net Income 2010 1,711 812 1,791 48 807 126 (Mil USD) 2011 1,033 505 1,356-30 756 80 2012E 1,338 388 1,669 134 716 122 2013E 1,445 613 1,959 172 809 137 EPS 2010 1.29 4.54 4.17 0.28 4.79 3.73 (USD) 2011 0.79 2.81 3.31-0.17 4.48 2.38 2012E 1.01 2.18 4.10 0.77 4.26 3.61 2013E 1.17 3.40 4.86 0.99 5.12 4.07 BPS 2010 6.59 39.09 10.34 10.56 16.98 35.05 (USD) 2011 6.73 41.18 11.80 9.31 19.89 37.65 2012E 7.16 43.46 14.32 10.30 22.74 40.60 2013E 8.26 45.72 18.34 11.11 25.91 43.70 Profitability OP Margin 2010 23.0% 14.1% 28.9% 7.1% 37.2% 15.6% 2011 15.1% 9.5% 25.8% -0.1% 32.7% 11.0% 2012E 17.7% 7.9% 27.8% 10.0% 30.2% 14.5% 2013E 19.6% 11.1% 29.3% 12.3% 32.4% 15.7% EBITDA Margin 2010 25.4% 17.4% 31.9% 11.5% 39.8% 22.3% 2011 20.3% 13.5% 30.1% 4.9% 35.9% 17.7% 2012E 21.6% 12.0% 30.1% 14.3% 33.1% 21.0% 2013E 22.9% 14.9% 31.9% 16.3% 34.6% 22.1% Net Income Margin 2010 16.4% 9.8% 25.2% 3.9% 25.6% 10.4% 2011 11.5% 6.5% 22.7% -1.8% 24.0% 7.3% 2012E 14.0% 5.2% 23.8% 6.7% 22.3% 9.9% 2013E 14.6% 7.4% 25.3% 7.8% 23.6% 10.6% ROE 2010 19.5% 12.3% 44.8% 2.7% 32.0% 11.0% 2011 9.3% 7.0% 28.3% -1.6% 23.9% 6.2% 2012E 13.0% 4.6% 28.3% 7.9% 20.5% 9.2% 2013E 12.2% 7.8% 31.4% 9.7% 21.8% 9.7% Multiple P/E 2012E 13.8 15.6 17.4-11.4 20.9 2013E 10.8 20.8 14.0 16.1 12.0 13.9 P/B 2012E 1.6 1.1 4.8 1.3 2.6 1.3 2013E 1.5 1.0 4.0 1.2 2.2 1.2 EV/EBITDA 2012E 7.5 4.8 12.1 25.8 5.9 8.4 2013E 6.7 5.8 10.4 7.6 6.3 6.4 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 18
삼성테크윈 (012450) 기계업체 Peer Group Table (1) HYUNDAI DOOSAN LS INDUST. HITACHI CONST. KAWASAKI MORI KOMATSU MITSUBISHI IHI THK HEAVY IND. HEAVY IND. SYSTEMS MACHINE KISEN KAISHA SEIKI Stock Price(7/27, USD) 199.10 52.48 55.38 22.47 17.79 19.51 1.40 2.05 17.30 7.57 Market Cap(Mil USD) 15,132 5,555 1,661 22,092 3,828 32,267 1,317 3,011 2,315 897 Income Statement Sales 2010 44,263 7,818 1,891 21,761 9,493 239,319 12,072 14,536 2,387 1,427 (Mil USD) 2011 48,486 8,700 2,003 24,966 9,977 256,138 11,944 14,832 2,441 1,882 2012E 50,233 9,746 2,272 27,001 10,891 265,802 14,070 15,575 2,484 2,036 2013E 52,563 10,670 2,562 28,287 11,411 274,053 14,618 15,371 2,618 2,047 Operating Profit 2010 4,133 567 129 2,774 524 4,360 790 663 260 3 (Mil USD) 2011 2,899 580 164 3,384 714 4,228-512 555 238 82 2012E 3,103 715 196 3,974 897 4,201 259 574 258 94 2013E 3,503 819 233 4,319 977 4,528 372 657 305 95 EBITDA 2010 4,886 863 192 3,894 994 7,334 1,321 1,118 377 89 (Mil USD) 2011 3,931 742 218 4,463 1,209 6,992 79 1,136 359 162 2012E 4,136 892 261 5,104 1,407 6,765 930 1,218 394 188 2013E 4,460 1,002 299 5,460 1,485 7,210 1,082 1,310 454 184 Net Income 2010 3,007 303 84 1,715 152 5,243 398 294 159-0 (Mil USD) 2011 1,844 415 113 2,225 295 5,838-610 288 129 56 2012E 2,099 567 141 2,441 429 5,871 64 363 178 75 2013E 2,412 671 165 2,676 439 6,261 182 346 205 72 EPS 2010 39.55 3.20 2.64 1.80 0.71 3.18 0.50 0.19 1.22-0.00 (USD) 2011 25.69 4.10 3.80 2.30 1.41 3.54-0.79 0.20 1.00 0.51 2012E 29.32 5.62 4.74 2.57 2.04 3.64 0.08 0.25 1.39 0.69 2013E 33.30 6.60 5.51 2.80 2.09 3.89 0.22 0.24 1.60 0.66 BPS 2010 191.36 40.57 22.68 11.39 18.59 23.93 5.13 1.91 16.37 10.43 (USD) 2011 216.69 43.53 24.62 13.26 18.63 26.13 3.83 2.16 16.79 10.54 2012E 242.21 48.06 28.01 15.15 20.98 29.21 3.97 2.39 18.08 11.28 2013E 272.23 53.80 32.36 17.04 22.45 32.12 4.12 2.58 19.25 11.64 Profitability OP Margin 2010 9.3% 7.3% 6.8% 12.7% 5.5% 1.8% 6.5% 4.6% 10.9% 0.2% 2011 6.0% 6.7% 8.2% 13.6% 7.2% 1.7% -4.3% 3.7% 9.8% 4.3% 2012E 6.2% 7.3% 8.6% 14.7% 8.2% 1.6% 1.8% 3.7% 10.4% 4.6% 2013E 6.7% 7.7% 9.1% 15.3% 8.6% 1.7% 2.5% 4.3% 11.6% 4.7% EBITDA Margin 2010 11.0% 11.0% 10.2% 17.9% 10.5% 3.1% 10.9% 7.7% 15.8% 6.2% 2011 8.1% 8.5% 10.9% 17.9% 12.1% 2.7% 0.7% 7.7% 14.7% 8.6% 2012E 8.2% 9.1% 11.5% 18.9% 12.9% 2.5% 6.6% 7.8% 15.9% 9.2% 2013E 8.5% 9.4% 11.7% 19.3% 13.0% 2.6% 7.4% 8.5% 17.3% 9.0% Net Income Margin 2010 6.8% 3.9% 4.4% 7.9% 1.6% 2.2% 3.3% 2.0% 6.7% 0.0% 2011 3.8% 4.8% 5.7% 8.9% 3.0% 2.3% -5.1% 1.9% 5.3% 3.0% 2012E 4.2% 5.8% 6.2% 9.0% 3.9% 2.2% 0.5% 2.3% 7.2% 3.7% 2013E 4.6% 6.3% 6.4% 9.5% 3.8% 2.3% 1.2% 2.3% 7.8% 3.5% ROE 2010 21.8% 8.2% 12.3% 15.2% 4.1% 13.8% 9.9% 9.9% 7.5% 0.3% 2011 11.6% 9.5% 15.7% 18.5% 7.9% 13.9% -17.3% 10.1% 5.9% 4.9% 2012E 11.8% 12.1% 17.0% 17.8% 9.8% 12.1% 3.3% 11.1% 7.4% 6.6% 2013E 12.4% 12.9% 17.0% 16.9% 9.1% 12.0% 4.4% 10.0% 8.2% 4.9% Multiple P/E 2012E 7.7 12.7 14.4 9.4 12.2 5.4-10.1 17.1 14.3 2013E 6.7 9.3 11.6 8.8 8.7 5.4 18.2 8.3 12.4 11.0 P/B 2012E 0.9 1.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 2013E 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 EV/EBITDA 2012E 6.2 11.5 9.4 7.1 6.7 12.1 96.6 5.2 4.0 9.8 2013E 5.9 9.5 7.9 6.4 5.9 12.8 8.5 5.0 3.7 8.8 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 19
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 기계업체 Peer Group Table (2) CATERPILLAR GENERAL HONEYWELL ROCKWELL SCHNEIDER VOLVO SIEMENS OMRON ABB ELECTRIC INTERNATIONAL AUTOMATION ELECTRIC Stock Price(3/8, USD) 86.16 20.92 12.23 83.55 59.01 67.90 19.46 17.52 56.32 Market Cap(Mil USD) 56,219 221,654 26,000 76,382 45,979 9,669 4,654 40,554 30,914 Income Statement Sales 2010 57,942 149,296 45,099 100,790 36,707 5,897 7,614 40,246 29,149 (Mil USD) 2011 68,321 148,607 46,165 95,245 38,118 6,231 7,574 39,796 29,125 2012E 73,119 152,455 48,939 98,115 40,252 6,470 8,176 42,017 30,300 2013E 78,177 158,100 51,568 102,196 42,630 6,974 8,452 39,182 31,854 Operating Profit 2010 7,105 20,795 4,040 12,505 4,943 905 604 4,920 3,820 (Mil USD) 2011 9,387 20,412 3,693 8,813 5,377 1,043 458 4,631 3,887 2012E 10,386 23,174 4,253 9,889 5,928 1,116 579 5,248 4,179 2013E 11,539 24,409 4,702 11,116 6,429 1,242 696 4,993 4,523 EBITDA 2010 9,155 30,200 5,993 16,116 5,815 1,036 918 6,556 4,794 (Mil USD) 2011 12,045 25,529 5,666 12,090 6,296 1,176 735 5,896 4,737 2012E 13,072 28,719 6,212 13,080 6,877 1,267 866 6,678 5,042 2013E 14,472 31,477 6,633 14,180 7,572 1,364 1,013 5,638 5,450 Net Income 2010 4,528 14,505 2,613 9,571 3,162 672 362 3,314 2,594 (Mil USD) 2011 6,486 15,981 2,402 6,493 3,541 734 177 3,165 2,607 2012E 7,263 18,022 2,811 7,272 3,956 780 354 3,569 2,836 2013E 7,871 19,663 3,133 8,062 4,440 875 436 2,906 3,081 EPS 2010 6.80 1.37 1.28 10.60 4.04 4.62 1.65 1.53 4.86 (USD) 2011 9.63 1.54 1.19 7.47 4.51 5.12 0.81 1.31 4.76 2012E 10.70 1.74 1.38 8.22 5.00 5.57 1.61 1.52 5.18 2013E 12.16 1.94 1.53 9.10 5.54 6.24 1.97 1.27 5.74 BPS 2010 20.68 11.95 6.16 51.15 15.57 13.61 17.71 6.58 37.50 (USD) 2011 27.25 11.59 6.58 45.99 16.87 15.01 17.78 6.69 37.80 2012E 35.81 12.17 7.43 49.81 20.09 17.74 19.52 7.16 40.49 2013E 45.47 13.08 7.90 55.50 24.21 20.94 21.20 7.62 43.98 Profitability OP Margin 2010 12.3% 13.9% 9.0% 12.4% 13.5% 15.3% 7.9% 12.2% 13.1% 2011 13.7% 13.7% 8.0% 9.3% 14.1% 16.7% 6.1% 11.6% 13.3% 2012E 14.2% 15.2% 8.7% 10.1% 14.7% 17.2% 7.1% 12.5% 13.8% 2013E 14.8% 15.4% 9.1% 10.9% 15.1% 17.8% 8.2% 12.7% 14.2% EBITDA Margin 2010 15.8% 20.2% 13.3% 16.0% 15.8% 17.6% 12.1% 16.3% 16.4% 2011 17.6% 17.2% 12.3% 12.7% 16.5% 18.9% 9.7% 14.8% 16.3% 2012E 17.9% 18.8% 12.7% 13.3% 17.1% 19.6% 10.6% 15.9% 16.6% 2013E 18.5% 19.9% 12.9% 13.9% 17.8% 19.6% 12.0% 14.4% 17.1% Net Income Margin 2010 7.8% 9.7% 5.8% 9.5% 8.6% 11.4% 4.8% 8.2% 8.9% 2011 9.5% 10.8% 5.2% 6.8% 9.3% 11.8% 2.3% 8.0% 9.0% 2012E 9.9% 11.8% 5.7% 7.4% 9.8% 12.1% 4.3% 8.5% 9.4% 2013E 10.1% 12.4% 6.1% 7.9% 10.4% 12.5% 5.2% 7.4% 9.7% ROE 2010 36.1% 11.6% 22.3% 21.8% 25.4% 40.2% 9.0% 21.2% 12.6% 2011 39.2% 13.7% 18.7% 15.6% 29.8% 39.1% 4.6% 19.5% 12.8% 2012E 34.3% 13.8% 19.4% 16.8% 27.9% 35.3% 8.2% 16.5% 12.9% 2013E 32.7% 14.8% 19.3% 17.0% 25.5% 32.8% 9.6% 16.3% 13.3% Multiple P/E 2012E 8.9 13.6 10.3 11.1 13.1 13.3 23.4 13.4 11.6 2013E 8.1 12.0 8.9 10.1 11.8 12.2 12.1 11.6 10.7 P/B 2012E 3.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.5 4.5 1.1 2.6 1.5 2013E 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.9 3.8 1.0 2.4 1.4 EV/EBITDA 2012E 7.5 20.8 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.2 5.7-7.8 2013E 6.9 18.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.6 4.9-7.3 자료 : Bloomberg, SK 증권 20
삼성테크윈 (012450) 투자의견변경일시투자의견목표주가 ( 원 ) 수정주가 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.1 목표주가 Compliance Notice 작성자 ( 정한섭 ) 는본조사분석자료에게재된내용들이본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이신의성실하게작성되었음을확인합니다. 본보고서에언급된종목의경우당사조사분석담당자는본인의담당종목을보유하고있지않습니다. 본보고서는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공된사실이없습니다. 본보고서는 2012 년 7 월 30 일 20 시 20 분당사홈페이지에게재되었습니다. 당사는본보고서의발간시점에해당종목을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다. 종목별투자의견은다음과같습니다. 투자판단 4 단계 (6 개월기준 ) 25% 이상 적극매수 / 10%~25% 매수 / -10%~+10% 중립 / -10% 미만 매도 21
기업분석 Analyst 정한섭 hanchong@sk.com / +82-3773-9005 재무상태표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 200912 201012 201112 201212E 201312E 201412E 비유동자산 1,228 1,764 1,949 2,085 2,275 2,453 장기금융자산 34 36 440 341 341 341 유형자산 639 729 683 761 862 948 무형자산 104 274 259 246 233 222 유동자산 1,319 1,134 1,244 1,421 1,653 2,039 현금및현금성자산 273 112 188 297 424 609 매출채권및기타채권 360 472 547 587 647 755 재고자산 415 450 407 437 481 562 자산총계 2,547 2,898 3,194 3,506 3,928 4,492 비유동부채 456 565 605 613 622 631 장기금융부채 332 429 457 456 456 456 장기매입채무및기타채무 28 27 25 24 24 23 장기충당부채 0 0 0 0 0 0 유동부채 1,019 1,062 963 1,026 1,095 1,220 단기금융부채 201 375 330 346 346 346 매입채무및기타채무 311 292 223 240 264 308 단기충당부채 6 7 29 32 35 41 부채총계 1,475 1,627 1,568 1,639 1,717 1,851 지배주주지분 1,067 1,265 1,621 1,863 2,206 2,635 자본금 266 266 266 266 266 266 자본잉여금 189 189 188 188 188 188 기타자본구성요소 -3-1 -1 0 0 0 자기주식 2 1 0 0 0 0 이익잉여금 605 800 986 1,134 1,385 1,721 비지배주주지분 4 5 4 4 5 6 자본총계 1,072 1,271 1,625 1,867 2,211 2,641 부채와자본총계 2,547 2,898 3,194 3,506 3,928 4,492 현금흐름표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 200912 201012 201112 201212E 201312E 201412E 영업활동현금흐름 233 153 96 314 352 409 당기순이익 ( 손실 ) 174 234 230 175 251 336 비현금성항목등 107 101 11 134 150 175 유형자산감가상각비 74 76 82 83 100 114 무형자산상각비 4 20 18 17 16 15 기타 22 22-106 -5-19 -19 운전자본감소 ( 증가 ) -40-145 -109-28 -39-79 매출채권및기타채권의감소 ( 증가 ) 65-91 -103-34 -59-109 재고자산감소 ( 증가 ) -14-24 57-28 -44-81 매입채무 및 기타채무의 -3-25 -71 16 24 44 기타 -88-4 7 18 40 66 법인세납부 -8-37 -35 33-10 -24 투자활동현금흐름 -37-510 60-159 -190-188 금융자산감소 ( 증가 ) 100 41-15 -3 0 0 유형자산감소 ( 증가 ) -124-163 -48-160 -200-200 무형자산감소 ( 증가 ) -25-11 -3-3 -3-3 기타 11-377 126 7 14 16 재무활동현금흐름 52 196-81 -46-36 -36 단기금융부채증가 ( 감소 ) -292 61-237 14 0 0 장기금융부채증가 ( 감소 ) 402 199 232 0 0 0 자본의증가 ( 감소 ) 0 1 0 0 0 0 배당금의지급 -31-37 -43-27 0 0 기타 -28-27 -33-33 -36-36 현금의증가 ( 감소 ) 85-161 76 109 127 186 기초현금 189 273 112 188 297 424 기말현금 273 112 188 297 424 609 FCF -67-43 41 72 110 166 자료 : 삼성테크윈, SK 증권추정 22
삼성테크윈 (012450) 손익계산서 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 200912 201012 201112 201212E 201312E 201412E 매출액 2,691 2,924 2,948 3,091 3,726 4,241 매출원가 2,230 2,324 2,403 2,462 2,956 3,307 매출총이익 461 600 545 629 770 934 매출총이익률 (%) 17.1 20.5 18.5 20.4 20.7 22.0 판매비와관리비 254 386 456 434 484 551 조정영업이익 207 214 88 195 286 383 조정영업이익률 (%) 7.7 7.3 3.0 6.3 7.7 9.0 발표영업이익 220 228 251 198 286 383 비영업손익 47 61-3 5 6 8 순금융비용 20 25 34 32 31 29 외환관련손익 -3-1 -1 5 3 3 관계기업투자등관련손익 54 86 32 15 15 15 세전계속사업이익 253 289 248 203 291 390 세전계속사업이익률 (%) 9.4 9.9 8.4 6.6 7.8 9.2 계속사업법인세 47 46 17 28 41 55 계속사업이익 207 243 231 175 250 336 중단사업이익 -33-9 -1 1 1 1 * 법인세효과 0-4 -1 0 0 0 당기순이익 174 234 230 175 251 336 순이익률 (%) 6.5 8.0 7.8 5.7 6.7 7.9 지배주주 174.91 233.43 229.47 174.93 250.44 335.75 지배주주귀속순이익률 (%) 6.5 8.0 7.8 5.7 6.7 7.9 비지배주주 -0.97 0.77 0.49 0.51 0.51 0.51 총포괄이익 180.65 235.85 398.89 268.57 344.07 429.38 지배주주 181.68 234.76 398.29 268.04 343.55 428.86 비지배주주 -1.03 1.09 0.6 0.53 0.53 0.53 EBITDA 284 310 188 295 401 511 주요투자지표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 200912 201012 201112 201212E 201312E 201412E 성장성 (%) 매출액 15.0 8.7 0.8 4.9 20.5 13.8 조정영업이익 45.2 3.4-58.7 120.7 46.5 34.0 세전계속사업이익 54.6 13.9-14.2-17.9 43.2 34.1 EBITDA 28.2 9.0-39.3 56.5 36.0 27.5 EPS( 계속사업 ) 70.8 21.2-5.0-24.2 43.3 34.1 수익성 (%) ROE 16.3 20.0 15.9 10.0 12.3 13.9 ROA 7.0 8.6 7.6 5.2 6.8 8.0 EBITDA 마진 10.6 10.6 6.4 9.5 10.8 12.1 안정성 (%) 유동비율 129.4 106.8 129.2 138.5 151.0 167.1 부채비율 137.7 128.1 96.5 87.8 77.6 70.1 순차입금 / 자기자본 20.6 54.5 36.9 27.1 17.1 7.3 EBITDA/ 이자비용 ( 배 ) 9.9 11.2 5.2 8.4 11.3 14.5 주당지표 ( 원 ) EPS( 계속사업 ) 3,761 4,559 4,329 3,282 4,703 6,309 BPS 20,086 23,815 30,513 35,058 41,525 49,596 CFPS 4,564 6,204 6,200 5,168 6,882 8,734 주당현금배당금 700 800 500 0 0 0 Valuation지표 ( 배 ) PER 최고 27.8 25.8 24.6 24.3 17.0 12.7 최저 8.0 14.7 11.5 16.2 11.3 8.4 PBR 최고 5.2 4.9 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 최저 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 PCR 19.9 16.7 8.6 14.0 10.5 8.3 EV/EBITDA 최고 20.8 22.8 34.0 16.7 12.0 9.0 최저 6.9 14.2 18.0 11.8 8.4 6.2 자료 : 삼성테크윈, SK 증권추정 23
Memo 24
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