03-05 Human Resource Policies (II) for an Aging Society in Korea (II) --
2002 65 7.9%. 2002. 201965 14.5% UN (Aged society)14%.... (II). 2002 (I).,.
...,,... 20039
i 1..,,,... J. Mincer.... 55 70. 55 59, 60 64, 65.
ii. (raw data) 20002001. (residual part) 855. 2.. 2002 5054 73.2%. 55 5964.6%, 60 6455.8%, 6530.4%.. 2001 55592.4, 60 642.9, 652.9. 555931, 6064 15 5.6, 6.8. 1.
iii.. 1... 6064 2.44.5, 6.4 7.4. 6064 11.6, 5, 6.9, 5.6... 19902001 20022001 2010. 1990 19982010
iv. 55, 200252.3% (2001) 2005 66.3%, 201067.3%. 20052,256, 20102,739. 55, 2000 5559 2010 43.9%1,977. 5559, 6064, 6574, 75 20005559. 5559.. 20032010. 20035559 59.7%, 69.3%200562.2%, 61.1%, 2010 62.9%, 59.9%. 20036064 69.3%, 68.1%, 200569.1%, 65.6%, 2010 68.7%, 58.7%. 6574 75., 6064(2003
v 69.3%, 200569.1%, 201068.7%), 5559 6064 6574, 75., 75 2010 85%. ( 86.5%, 83.6%)..,. 9% 5%...,, (37.2%).,.., (5%),... 60% 50%.
vi.. 3... 1), 2). 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7)
. 1 1. 1. 1. 4 2. 4. 4. 6. 7 3. 8. 8. 8 II. 11 1. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18 2. 19. 19. 21 vii
III. 23 1. 23. ( 2002.12.30) 23. ( 2002.12.30 06850) 24. ( 2001.8.14 6510) 26. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28 2. 30. 30. 30. 30. 31 3. 33. 33. 39. 43 IV. 61 1. 61 2. 62. 62. 65. 66. (2001) 68. 70 viii
. 72. 73 V. 75 1. 76. 76. 77. 78 2. 88. 88. 90. 92 3. 98. 98. 100 4. 104. 104. 106. 121. 126 VI. 133 1. 133. 133. 133. 134. 134. 135 2. 137. 137 ix
. 137. 138 VII. 139 1. 139. 139. 140 2. 140. 140. 142 3. 145 4. 146. 146. 147 151 Abstract 157 < 1> 161 < 2> 164 x
xi < -1> 29 < -2> (2002) 32 < -3> 46 < -4> 47 < -5> 55 < -6> 58 < -1> 63 < -2>, (2002) 66 < -3> 2001, 67 < -4> 2000, 2001, 68 < -5> 2001 69 < -6> 2001 70 < -7> 2001 71 < -8> 2001 72 < -9> 2001, 73 < -1> 80 < -2> 5559 81 < -3> 5559 83 < -4> 6064 84 < -5> 65 86 <V-6> (20032010) 95 <V-7> (20032010) 96 <V-8> (20032010) 96 <V-9> ( : 19902002) 97
xii < V-10> ( : 19902002) 98 <V-11> (20032010) 102 <V-12> (20032010) 103 < -13> 105 < -14> 107 < -15> 108 < -16> 109 < -17> 111 < -18> 113 < -19> 115 < -20> 116 < -21> 118 < -22> 121 < -23> 123 < -24> 124 < -25> 126
-165 45-2 52-3 53-1 64-2 65 V-1 94-2 ( : 67.8) 119-3 120-4 125-4 127-5 128-6 129-1 143 xiii
. 1. 1.. UN65 7% (Aging society), 14% (Aged society). 1) 2001OECD 14.4%OECD. 2002 65 7.9%. 2002 2019 14.5%. IMF 65. 50. 40115. 2019 1) 55 50 ( 2).
2 ( ) -,,,.,,, (, 2002)... (, 2002). 65 2).,,,,,,.,,, (, 2002). 2) 65199026.1%, 200029.2%, 2010 36.0% 19902000 5.6%, 2000 2010 4.3%.
. 3. 67 OECD,. (Mark Keese and Jaehung Lee, 2002).... OECD (within cohorts) (between cohorts) 3) (OECD Employment Outlook p136, 1998).,. 3)
4 ( ) -......,. 2....
. 5.??.., (Statistically significant) (, 2002). (tight labor market)..., 4),.. 4) KLI 45 12% 62%.
6 ( ) -....,... 55 70. 5) 55 59, 60 64, 65. 5) 55 70 20021, UN, 2002 205570% 55.
. 7. (5 digit). 0,1,2,3,4,5,,, 6,7,8,9... (raw data) 20002001,., J. Mincer. (residual part). 46.3% 53.7% 855.
8 ( ) - 3.. II. III. IV, V (proxy estimation) J. Mincer... VI VII....
. 9.. 65....,.,, 2.
. 11. 1..,,... (, 2002. 5 :, 2002. 6. 10.). 6520017.6%. 14.4%. 201914.5%, 202620.0% (, 2001)..
12 ( ) -.. Ignazio Visco(2001. 6) Kiel Week Aging Populations: Issues and Policy Challenges" 5 OECD.. (sensitivity analysis) 2050 3-4%.. OECD 14 2050 3%.,,, 1.5%. 2000-2050 7%6.25% 6-7%. 0.25% 6-7%. Ignazio Visco 2000-20300.75% 0.250.5%
. 13.. (2003), (1998), (2002) 6). (1991) (dead weight effect) 7) (replacement effec t) 8)... () 6) 50 2.9%,,. (, 2002). 7),. 8)..
14 ( ) -. 65. 20-30% 25%, 30-40% 18.2%, 40% 17.5%, 10-15% 17.3%, 5,000 40% 41.7% 300 20-30% (, 2002). 9) (base-up),,..,, OECD (2002. 6),, -,,. 50-60., 30-343 9).,..,..,..
. 15.. 1.,.. OECDEmployment Outlook(1998). OECD.. (job-skill). (Warr, 1994)., (OECD Employment Outlook p136, 1998). (Within Groups). (Bound et al,. 1997).
16 ( ) - (Manton et al,. 1997) (OECD Employment Outlook, p136, 1998)., Lazear' s (back-loaded compensation) (Medoff and Abraham, 1981)... IALS (International Adult Literacy Survey),,, (OECD and Statistics Canada, 1995).. IALS. (OECD Employment Outlook, p136, 1998)... (Proxy variable).
. 17... (2002. 6). 2001 55 3,64220104,917 2.5% 1,238.,,.. (2002).,,. 12HRD (2002),
18 ( ) -. (Lernen im sozialen Umfeld: LISU) 10),... (JIL)(2001) 65. 1963 1998 60 60 10).. ().,,. 3.,,.,.
. 19. 196120003 7,100, 1,001. 25. JIL (2002),. 2.. 2,.. KDI(1984) (p78-120),.
20 ( ) -,. 11)....,,.,,.,. 11) (, 1984).
. 2 1. 40 8%. (World Bank, 1993, Jang, 1995). (Human capital)... 1. (1993),.,..
. 23. 1.. ( 2002.12.30) 1).,,.,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,.
24 ( ) - 2), 60.,,.,,,.,. 3) 55, 50, 300 100 3.,,,. 12). ( 2002.12.30 06850),,,, 12) 12.
. 25. 1) 18,, 2002.12.30. 2) ( 2002. 12. 30 17853 ) 22, 26. 45 60. 3) 31 2211 ""100 6. 32, 322 22"", 32 4. 35 49,.
26 ( ) -. ( 2001.8.14 6510),,. 16,,,,,.. ( 2001. 3. 28 6455). 3. 18,. 14
. 27 181.. ( 2002. 5. 27 17613) 10, 100 3022.. ( 2002. 5. 27 17613) 11 7.. 1) 3 23
28 ( ) -.,. 25,, 65. 2) 24.,,,,,,,.. 1.. 6,.
. <-1> ( 2 2 ) ( ), 29
30 ( ) - 2.. 1),. 2),,,,,,.. 18,,,, ( 11).. 2003 70
. 3 1. (, ),... 3% 3.21%,, 65. 1/ 4.,,,. " ",,,,,.,. 13) 13). 2002 105( ), 1(20026 ).
32 ( ) - <-2> (2002) 55 927, 14. 55.. 41, 10. 50 60 93750 60.,,. 9660, 97 65 70.,, 65. 2002, 2003 55 (100 ).. -, - -.
. 33 3.. 1) (The Older American Act) 55 1965., (Department of Aging). SCSEP(, The Senior Community Service Employment Program). ) (SCSEP) 14) (SCSEP: The Senior Community Service Employment Program)55.,,,,.. (State Agencies) (National sponcers). 15) 14) SCSEPwww. experienceworks. org/ aboutus.html. 15) 10 (American Association of Retire Persons), (Green Thumb Inc.), (National Association for Hispanic Elderly), (National Center on Black Aged),
34 ( ) - (Senior Aids Program) (National Council of Senior Citizens) 2000 500,000.,. 17384,000. 145(Senior Aides Program). 7 10,500, (Meals-on-Wheels Worker),,,,,,,, 20,. (Senior Environmental Employment Program), 197655 (Environmental Protection Agency).,,,,,. (National Council on the Aging Inc), (National Senior Citigens Education and Research Center), (National Council on the Aging Inc), / (National Pacific/ Asian Resource Center on Aging), (National Urban League Inc). ((2000),,,,.204207p)
. 35 (Green Thumb Program) 1965. (JTPA). 55,. 4, (2000,, ). (Experience Works, Inc) Green Thumb2002,,.,,. 125,000, 500 50. (SCSEP) 10 SCSEP. SCSEP200130,000 75 1500. 2) (Age Discrimination in Employment Act) (Age Discrimination in Employment Act),,,, (layoff),,,,
36 ( ) -. 19781 40 65 70 19862 40. 20,.,... 65,, 1990 (Older Workers Benefit Protection Act).(1999, Koff & Park/ 2000,, ) 3) (The Job Training Partnership Act) (The Job Training Partnership Act: JTPA) (Comprehensive Employment and Training Act) 1982,,,,,. JTPA7 (Title), (1999, ).,,,.
. 37 JTPA. JTPA.. (Green Thumb Program),,, (Senior Aides) 20 (1996, ). 4) (Workforce Investment Act) 1998 8 JTPA (Workforce Investment Act). JTPA,,,,,, (1999, ). 5) 1990.. ) (American Corps) 3002,,,,.,,,.
38 ( ) - (VISTA), (NCCC), (Leaders), (Hope ), (Learn and Serve America). (1995, Cooperation for National Service) ) (National Senior Service Corps) 55. (Retired and Senior Volunteer Program), (Senior Companion Program), (Foster Grandparent Program). (Retired and Senior Volunteer Program) 55,, 1 40.. (Senior Companion Program) 60,,,..,,. (Foster Grandparent Program) 60,,
. 39.,., (1996, ). 6),,,,....... 1),
40 ( ) -.,,. 19933 25 (New Deal for 25+ pilots) 50 6 1,,, 750 (, 2000).,,., (Full-Time) (Part-Time),. (Old Workers Sheltered Workshop).,,. 140 400(1990, ). 2) (Age Diversity in Employment),.. 25 50 50., 1998 8
. 4 1 (Action on Age)'. (Code of Practice on Age Diversity in Employment). (CBI), (Age), (Institute of Personnel and Development), 1999 (, 2000). 65, 60. 70, 65. 3), (, 1994). ). 1961. Middle,, Inner Wheel, Round Table,,,, (, 2001). ) (2001, ).
42 ( ) - (Rubery Owen Company) 65 70, 70,.. (Rolls Royce Company),,.. 1. (Crystal Manufacture Company) 1945. 70200 75 2 3, 7622. Messers, Archibald Kenvick Son 1956,,,. ).. (, 2001).
. 43 ) 3(Third Age Challenge) 3 (5074),,,,,.,, (, 1996). 4)... 1) 3.,..
44 ( ) -.,.,. 2) ) 65 16) 2001128.0% (, 2002)., 19.4%,, 658.6%. (2000) 65,. 2001 (, 65 ),, 65. 16), 65,,.
. 45 [8.6%] [91.4%] 65 28.0% (100%) (96.4%) <100%> <6.7%> 6064 <92.2%> 65 19.4% 60 <1.1%>, (3.6%) :,, 2002. -165,,.
46 ( ) - <-3> - 61, 65, 606515% -, 6065 -,,, -, 61-60~65, 20014 65,.,,. )
. 47., 30 60 OJT.,, (, 2001). <-4> ( ) - -,, -, ( ) - -,, - ( ) - - - ( ) - -,,,,,.
48 ( ) -,.. :,, :,,. :,,,.,.,.,.. : :,. :,.
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. 5 1 NPO : NPO NPO NPO. ( NPO 47 ), (order-made).,. ( 205),,,,.,. ) (), 17).., 17),,,,.
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. 53 DB DB -3, 3., (),,. ()
54 ( ) -,, ( ).,.,, 520. 3),,,. (55 ) 5 1999, 2000..,,. ),,.,,,. 2,.
. 55,. ),,.. <-5> 19974. 45,, 1, 45 1.,,.
56 ( ) - ( ). ),.. ),. 1998. 1998,. 5, 5. 80%.,.,,,
. 57. 1.,,. 3~12. 1 6~24.,, OJT. 1987, 6,. OJT 23,300, OFF-JT 1 6., 1990,... 1998,
58 ( ) -. 4,. <-6>, DIY,,,,,,,..,..,...,. 4), 60,,., 60,.,
. 59.. (),.,. 60.,,.,, 2,,...
60 ( ) - :,,,, :,,,, :,,,, :,,, :,,,, :,,,, :,,,, :,,, :,,,,,,,. 5). 2001.
. 6 1. 1.. 2..??.. (II2 ). 2 2 2002. 2 2000 2001. 2 20012 2001. 2 2001.
62 ( ) - 2.,,,,,,. I 55 70., 2000, 2001.. (Household survey) (Firm survey).. 55 7065 70. 55 70 65 70.. 1980 1559%. 199762.5% 19981.9%p 60.6% 200261.9%.
. 63 199750-54 91.0%, 55-5984.9%, 60-6573.6%, 65-6942.0% 199850-54 1.0%p 55-59 3.2%p, 60-64 5.6%p, 651.7%p. <-1> ( : %) 5054 55 59 60 64 65 1980 90.5 53.9 80.0 46.2 - - - - 59.0 1981 89.8 55.1 80.5 47.2 - - - - 58.5 1982 89.8 55.2 81.0 49.5 - - - - 58.6 1983 89.8 55.5 78.4 48.1 - - - - 57.7 1984 87.8 51.9 77.3 45.2 - - - - 55.8 1985 88.1 52.4 77.3 47.2 - - - - 56.6 1986 88.7 54.2 75.9 46.9 - - - - 57.1 1987 88.2 56.8 77.6 49.1 - - - - 58.3 1988 89.2 58.0 79.6 49.6 - - - - 58.5 1989 89.6 60.6 82.4 52.8 65.7 41.7 38.9 41.7 59.6 1990 90.6 60.0 83.6 54.4 67.2 43.6 39.3 43.6 60.0 1991 91.4 59.2 84.8 53.6 66.3 42.3 39.4 42.3 60.6 1992 91.5 60.2 84.7 52.9 69.8 44.1 40.6 44.1 60.9 1993 91.5 57.7 84.5 52.6 68.7 42.4 40.6 42.4 60.9 1994 91.4 58.9 84.3 53.3 71.7 44.8 41.1 44.8 61.6 1995 91.3 58.8 83.9 54.1 73.7 46.0 40.8 46.0 61.9 1996 91.5 57.9 83.5 53.7 73.6 45.4 41.0 45.4 62.1 1997 91.0 58.6 84.9 54.3 73.6 46.6 42.0 46.6 62.5 1998 92.0 55.3 81.7 51.4 68.0 44.7 40.3 44.7 60.6 1999 89.9 55.8 81.0 51.8 65.5 46.3 40.6 46.3 60.6 2000 89.1 55.2 77.7 51.1 63.4 45.9 40.6 45.9 61.0 2001 88.0 56.5 77.8 50.5 65.0 45.6 41.2 45.6 61.3 2002 88.3 58.0 80.1 49.6 66.5 46.4 42.7 46.4 61.9 :,. 60-64 200266.5%.
64 ( ) - 199750-54 58.6%, 55-5954.3%, 60-6546.6%, 65-6946.6% 199850-543.3%p 55-59 2.9%p, 60-64 1.9%p, 651.9%p. 50-54. 2002 55-5949.6%. 1998. 18) -1 18).. (J. F. Quinn, 2001).
. 65-2. 2002<-2> 2,188553581 17.6%. 55 5545.0%. 55 10 4.5. 60 10 3.7. 2001 2002,. 50-54 1.9% 36, 55-59 1.6%23, 60-64 1.5%18, 650.5% 6.5. 20023.0%, 10 4.510 0.9 20 10 5.3 20-24.
66 ( ) - <-2>, (2002) ( : ) (%) (%) 20 312,721 39,448 2,964,391 10.6 11.2 20-24 1,597,521 130,167 1,264,281 57.7 7.5 25-29 2,385,262 141,138 1,006,059 71.5 5.6 30-34 2,737,712 91,212 1,062,286 72.7 3.2 35-39 2,966,166 72,024 900,758 77.1 2.4 40-44 3,392,760 72,979 902,587 79.3 2.1 45-49 2,726,135 44,645 767,047 78.3 1.6 50-54 1,915,188 36,604 715,314 73.2 1.9 55-59 1,385,834 22,900 771,709 64.6 1.6 60-64 1,174,483 18,310 944,614 55.8 1.5 65 1,290,359 6,541 2,966,527 30.4 0.5 21,884,141 675,969 14,265,573 61.3 3.0 * :, (2002). (2001 ). 0,1,2,3,4,5 6,7,8,9. <IV-3> 2000 164, 2001 210. 2000 50-54 265 136, 55-59257 110, 60-65 214 86, 65214 86. 2000 50-54 65123:100 60-64 260:100 2.6.
. 67 130:100 1.3., 1... 2001 2000 2001 2000 50-54. <IV-3, 4> 19). <-3> 2001, ( : ) 2000 2001 5054 2,654 1,357 3,421 1,720 5559 2,570 1,096 3,152 1,291 6064 2,283 867 2,750 958 65 2,141 864 2,646 921 1,830 1,363 2,345 1,720 1,643 2,103 :, (2001, 2002) 19) (/ 12)+ +.
68 ( ) - <-4> 2000, 2001, ( : %) 2000 2001 / / 50-54 160 80 2.0 160 80 2.0 55-59 160 70 2.3 150 60 2.4 60-64 140 50 2.6 130 50 2.9 65 130 50 2.5 130 40 2.9 110 80 1.3 110 80 1.4 100 100 :, (2001, 2002). (2001) 2001615 3.6%, 9.8%, 46.9%, 14.5%, 25.2%.... 13.9 11.1. 3.. 60-64 100 : 678, 100 : 692, 100 : 204, 100 : 10, 100
. 69 : 7. <IV-5>55-59, 65 60-64. 55 13.1 9.4 2.. <-5> 2001 ( : ) 20 600 61 662 5,503 29,824 23,493 444 75 0 0 20-24 1,152 682 2,474 8,303 244,681 172,294 149,215 12,504 49,534 1,458 25-29 1,258 1,421 2,120 9,997 298,131 237,121 240,403 37,848 310,050 10,597 30-34 1,589 3,253 2,591 21,835 232,898 277,900 163,749 32,689 389,490 12,376 35-39 2,480 7,150 7,548 51,116 180,154 259,297 89,810 19,643 306,464 6,912 40-44 5,072 24,259 17,300 113,435 176,570 224,973 70,939 16,223 214,732 5,840 45-49 6,298 41,451 20,452 120,164 112,230 137,456 28,028 6,007 110,498 2,532 50-54 7,702 44,230 16,859 88,412 58,480 82,569 9,719 2,486 59,704 1,134 55-59 6,294 31,973 7,853 53,545 28,574 49,739 4,019 1,029 34,187 1,082 60-64 3,275 22,254 4,698 32,256 13,027 26,490 2,907 849 19,077 1,273 65 1,826 9,912 1,824 12,893 7,683 9,883 1,735 234 13,260 661 37,546 186,646 84,381 517,459 1,382,252 1,501,215 760,968 129,587 1,506,996 43,865 :, (2001)
70 ( ) - <-6> 2001 ( : %) 50-54 2.1 11.9 4.5 23.8 15.8 22.2 2.6 0.7 16.1 0.3 100 55-59 2.9 14.6 3.6 24.5 13.1 22.8 1.8 0.5 15.7 0.5 100 60-64 2.6 17.6 3.7 25.6 10.3 21.0 2.3 0.7 15.1 1.0 100 65 3.0 16.5 3.0 21.5 12.8 16.5 2.9 0.4 22.1 1.1 100 0.6 3.0 1.4 8.4 22.5 24.4 12.4 2.1 24.5 0.7 100 :, (2001).. 2001 1 10.2%, 1-5 31.7%, 5-1024.2%, 10 33.5%. 16.3%, 1-519.7%, 5-10 14.9%, 1020.4%. 10 50-54 64.1%, 55-59 56.5%, 60-64 49%, 6533.5%.
. 7 1 <-7> 2001 ( : ) 1 1-5 5-10 10 20 20,512 16,319 11,018 12,804 0 9 0 0 20-24 144,219 52,959 271,471 125,873 31,360 16,365 6 44 25-29 133,957 43,512 476,531 150,143 225,550 96,136 15,924 7,193 30-34 44,666 28,857 243,338 102,965 374,149 146,382 128,164 69,849 35-39 20,562 22,104 84,037 78,098 158,338 83,694 323,519 160,222 40-44 13,519 23,490 61,732 87,848 63,401 76,731 345,961 196,661 45-49 5,982 15,678 30,624 62,766 30,879 61,774 210,021 167,392 50-54 2,948 12,377 15,817 44,130 16,247 41,591 117,452 120,733 55-59 2,052 12,933 10,268 36,521 7,225 25,959 61,382 61,955 60-64 1,300 8,625 5,942 27,334 5,968 15,147 29,774 32,016 65 645 4,273 2,176 11,257 2,295 6,083 21,212 11,970 390,362 241,127 1,212,954 739,739 915,412 569,871 1,253,415 828,035 :, (2001). 1 1-5. 1 1-5...
72 ( ) - <-8> 2001 1 1-5 5-10 10 ( : %) 50-54 0.8 3.3 4.3 11.8 4.4 11.2 31.6 32.5 100 55-59 0.9 5.9 4.7 16.8 3.3 11.9 28.1 28.4 100 60-64 1.0 6.8 4.7 21.7 4.7 12.0 23.6 25.4 100 65 1.1 7.1 3.7 18.7 3.8 10.2 35.4 20.0 100 6.3 3.9 19.7 12 14.9 9.3 20.4 13.5 100 :, (2001).. 20011, 20) 1 1. 98.5% 1.2%. 60.4% 38.1%.... 20) 1.
. 73 (OECD 1998). <-9> 2001, ( : %) 50-54 40.6 58.1 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 100 55-59 36.4 61.1 0.6 1.7 0.0 0.2 100 60-64 33.7 63.7 0.4 2.2 0.0 0.0 100 65 43.4 53.5 0.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 100 60.4 38.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 100 :, (2001).. IV 2002 50-54 73.2%. 25-29 71.7%, 30-34 72.5%, 35-39 77.8% 40-44 79.1%, 45-49 78.6%. 55-59 64.6%, 60-64 55.8%, 6530.4%. 2001 55-592.4, 60-64 2.9, 652.9. 55-5931, 60-6415
74 ( ) - 5.6, 6.8. 1... V1. IV.
. 75. V.?. 1 J. Mincer. 2,. 3 55 69. 20035 80.9%, 82.9%.,,..
76 ( ) - 1.... (McMahon,1993,, 1993,,, 1984). 3.. 2003 21). ( 70, 90),. 21) 2003,,,, (ISO),,.
. 77 (54.7%), ( 53.8%, 53.8%), ( 10053.4%)... 1) 2001,,, 2001. 2) 2001 cell. 3) 2001,, J. Mincer.. ln W = 0 + 1 s + 2 s 2 + 3 sx + 4 x + 5 x 2 - ---- (V-1) (, ln w log, s, x )
78 ( ) - 4) F- t-lnw.. r t* = Ln W s = 1 + 2 2 s + x 3 -------- (V-2) 5) (V-2). 2001.. r = r t* *(1-u) ---------- (V-3), ru. 6), (criterion),... 5555-59
. 79 60-6465. 1) ) 2001 498,946. 290,629 208,317. 2001 245 181 100 74 1.4. ) J. Mincer (v-1), (v-2) (v-3) 2.0%, 7.3%, 10.6%, 14.4%. 2001 7.05%2001. 0.271, 1.5 2.1.
80 ( ) - <-1> ( :, %, ) 290,629 2.0 7.3 10.6 14.4 2,454 208,317 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 1,814 : (v-1) (v-2), (v-3) 2) 55 ) 55 2001 21,476. 6,491 14,984. 65 2001 139 55-59 81%, 60-64 116%, 65121% 30599 100 32 3.1. ) 55 J. Mincer (v-1), (v-2) (v-3) 55425.9%, 19.0% 13.5% 5.5%. 2001 7.05 %. 2001,,
. 8 1 55-59, 60-64. 55 2.03.7, 5.3 6.5. 2001 55.. <-2> 55-59 ( :, %, ) 55 ( ) 21,476 5.5 13.5 19.0 25.9 1,387 55 () 6,491 6.5 12.3 16.0 20.2 3,046 55 () 14,984 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.1 986 : (v-1) (v-2), (v-3) 3) 55-59 ) 55-59 55-59J. Mincer2001 15,285. 4,876 10,408. 4,162 7,543. 55-5985% 72%. 55-592000 172341
82 ( ) - 125. 100 37 2.7. ) 55-59 (v-1)(v-2), (v-3) 55-59 23.5%. 18.6% 12.6% 5.6%. 2001 7.05 %. 2001,,. 55-59 1.72.5, 11, 29. 55-59 2.2, 5, 6.8, 7.4. 2001 55-59..
. 83 <-3> 55-59 ( :, %, ) 55-59( ) 15,285 5.6 12.6 18.6 23.5 1,718 55-59() 4,876 6.1 10.8 14.3 17.6 3,413 55-59() 10,408 3.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 1,245 55-59() 4,162 2.4 8.6 13.6 17.9 3,723 55-59() 7,543 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.4 1,442 : (v-1) (v-2), (v-3) 4) 60-64 ) 60-64 60-642001 7,226. 2,074 5,151. 1,8153,937. 60-6488% 76%. 60-642001 120 55-59 70% 29984. 100 28 3.5 55-59. ) 60-64 60-64J. Mincer (v-1), (v-2) (v-3) 60-6429.8%. 23.3% 14.7% 5.2%. 2001 7.05%
84 ( ) -. 2001,, 55-59. 60-64 2.44.5, 6.4 7.4. 60-64 11.6, 5, 6.9, 5.6. 2001 60-64.. <-4> 60-64 ( :, %, ) 60-64( ) 7,226 5.2 14.7 23.3 29.8 1,204 60-64() 2,074 7.0 13.5 19.1 23.7 2,990 60-64() 5,151 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 835 60-64() 1,815 5.8 12.5 18.4 23.1 3,140 60-64() 3,937 0.5 1.8 3.1 4.1 901 : (v-1) (v-2), (v-3)
. 85 5) 65 ) 65 2001 2,973. 964 2,008. 8401,660. 65 90% 82%. 65 2001 115 55-59 67%, 60-64 96%. 234 82 100 35 2.8. 6555-59, 60-64. ) 65 J. Mincer (v-1)(v-2) (v-3) 654 23.5%. 18.9%, 13.3%, 6.8%. 2001 7.05 % 6.8%. 4.4% 2001 3.3%,,.
86 ( ) - 65 1.1, 1.2. 65. 65 0.8, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3. 65. 2001 65... <-5> 65 ( :, %, ) 65 ( ) 2,973 6.8 13.3 18.9 23.5 1,152 65 () 964 5.0 10.0 14.3 17.8 2,342 65 () 2,008 5.2 9.0 12.2 14.8 819 65 ( ) 840 3.3 9.1 14.2 18.3 2,428 65 ( ) 1,660 4.4 8.3 11.7 14.5 861 : (v-1) (v-2), (v-3)
. 87 6).... 60-64 2.4 4.5, 6.4 7.4. 60-64 11.6, 5, 6.9, 5.6....
88 ( ) - 2.... ti. p(x it ) = 1 1 + exp ( - x it ' it) j, ( t + j )i. p( x it + j ) = ' 1 1 + exp ( - x it + j it + j) x it + j, it + j. it + j (1983-2003 ) ( t).., GDP ( t). 22), 22) (1989), / (1995).
. 89., GDP, 23) GDP.,,., 24),,. (). log p it 1 - p it = it + itt + e it 1GDP. 23). 24) (1996)().
90 ( ) - p it = p(x it ) = 1 1 + exp ( - x it ' it) log p it 1 - p it = - x it ' it, x it ' it, (x it ), ( it)....,. 20(19701989). 2559,..
. 9 1 (M55_59) = -0.25 +0.12log(GDP) (-0.29) (2) R 2 = 0.18 DW = 0.3 (M60_64) = -1.67 +0.16log(GDP) (-2.39) (3.4) R 2 = 0.39 DW = 0.39 (M65_74) = -4.09 +0.26log(GDP) (-5.29) (5.01) R 2 = 0.58 DW = 1.64 (M75) = -8.07 + 0.45log(GDP) (-31.53)(10.16) R 2 = 0.85 DW = 0.94 (F55_59) = -1.31 + 0.09log(GDP) (-3.3) (3.42) R 2 = 0.39 DW = 0.47 (F60_64) = -3.62 + 0.23log(GDP) (-12.56 (11.49) R 2 = 0.88 DW = 1.18 (F65_74) = -7.21 + 0.41log(GDP)
92 ( ) - (-14.06) (11.8) R 2 = 0.89 DW = 0.47 (F75) = -12.05 + 0.64log(GDP) (-11.45) (8.86) R 2 = 0.81 DW = 0.57 GDP : T : (1983~2002) M55_59 : 55-59 M60_61 : 60-61 M62_64 : 62-64 M65_69 : 65-69 M70_74 : 70-74 M75 : 75 F55_59 : 55-59 F60_61 : 60-61 F62_64 : 62-64 F65_69 : 65-69 F70_74 : 70-74 F75 : 75. 20032010 <V-6>, <V-7>, <V-8>. <V-6>, <V-7>
. 93 1990, 95, 972002 <V-9> <V-10>. 19902001 25) 20022001 2010. 1990 19982010., 199053.3% 200051.7%, 1990 1,094 2000 1,619.. 200252.3% (2001 ) 200566.3%, 201067.3%. 20052256, 2010 2739., 19902000199834.3% 34.8% 35%1,005 1,443.. 2000 55-59 2010 43.9%1,977. 55-59, 60-64, 65-74, 75 (V-1) 200055-59. 55-59 25).
94 ( ) -. V-1
. 95 <V-6> (2003-2010) < > ( : %) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 66.2 66.2 66.3 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.8 67.3 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.6 83.7 83.8 83.9 83.9 69.7 69.9 70.1 70.3 70.4 70.6 70.7 70.9 49.5 49.9 50.2 50.5 50.8 51.1 51.4 51.7 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.5 < > ( : %) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 41.7 41.9 42.3 42.4 42.6 42.9 43.3 43.9 52.5 52.6 52.7 52.8 52.9 53 53.1 53.2 49.5 49.8 50.2 50.4 50.7 51 51.2 51.5 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.6 33 33.4 33.9 34.3 11.6 12 12.4 12.7 13 13.4 13.7 14.1
96 ( ) - <V-7> (2003-2010) < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2,111 2,196 2,256 2,319 2,411 2,501 2,605 2,739 893 920 957 974 1,012 1,040 1,087 1,169 634 654 641 650 668 700 736 768 568 605 639 675 708 735 754 771 16 17 19 20 23 26 28 31 < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1,554 1,605 1,655 1,695 1,752 1,811 1,880 1,977 556 582 609 625 648 666 694 751 505 503 501 499 507 527 553 582 481 506 531 556 580 600 614 623 12 14 14 15 17 18 19 21 <V-8> (2003-2010) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 53 53.2 53.4 53.5 53.7 54 54.4 55 3,665 3,801 3,911 4,014 4,163 4,312 4,485 4,716 2,111 2,196 2,256 2,319 2,411 2,501 2,605 2,739 ( : ) 1,554 1,605 1,655 1,695 1,752 1,811 1,880 1,977
. 97 <V-9> ( : 1990-2002) < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75 1990 53.3 83.6 67.2 46.4 17.7 1995 57.6 83.9 73.7 47.6 21.7 1997 58.5 84.8 73.6 48.6 24.6 1998 55.2 81.7 68.0 47.4 23.8 1999 54.4 81.0 65.6 46.7 25.5 2000 51.7 77.7 63.4 46.9 24.2 2001 51.6 77.7 65.0 47.5 24.4 2002 52.3 80.1 66.5 49.4 24.4 < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75 1990 34.8 54.4 43.5 24.9 6.5 1995 36.0 54.1 46.0 26.8 7.9 1997 36.9 54.3 46.6 30.0 8.5 1998 34.3 51.4 44.7 26.9 7.2 1999 35.2 51.9 46.3 28.1 9.2 2000 35.3 51.1 45.9 29.5 10.5 2001 35.0 50.65 45.6 30.3 9.7 2002 34.7 49.57 46.4 30.4 9.8
98 ( ) - <V-10> ( : 1990-2002) < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75 1990 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1,094 1,490 1,655 1,620 1,648 1,619 1,675 1,768 618 783 823 801 794 763 769 811 331 494 562 544 543 541 569 597 108 156 195 199 226 230 247 264 37 57 75 76 85 85 90 96 < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75 1990 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1,005 1,253 1,393 1,333 1,405 1,443 1,469 1,509 462 539 565 539 537 524 515 509 289 376 417 413 440 443 449 469 222 293 356 332 363 399 430 450 32 45 55 49 65 77 75 81 3... 20(19832002)
. 99.. (JM55_59)t = -0.27 +0.47lag(M55_59)t-1 (-2.70) (2.53) R 2 = 0.27 DW = 1.96 (JM60_64) = -1.97 +0.07log(GDP) (-3.17) (1.75) R 2 = 0.15 DW = 0.98 (JM65_74) = 0.22-0.10log(GDP) (0.37) (-2.39) R 2 = 0.24 DW = 1.19 (JM75) = 3.26 + -0.32log(GDP) (2.49) (-3.52) R 2 = 0.41 DW = 1.19 (JF55_59) = -3.76 + 0.21log(GDP) (-5.26) (4.37) R 2 = 0.51 DW = 0.60 (JF60_64) = 7.84-0.67log(GDP) + 0.09T (2.41) (-2.74) (2.93)
100 ( ) - R 2 = 0.35 DW = 1.94 (JF65_74) = 0.33-0.11log(GDP) (0.54) (-2.58) R 2 = 0.27 DW = 0.29 (JF75) = 1.41-0.19log(GDP) (1.23) (-2.44) R 2 = 0.25 DW = 1.22 GDP : T : (1983~2002) JM55_59 : 55-59 JM60_64 : 60-64 JM65_74 : 65-74 JM75 : 75 JF55_59 : 55-59 JF60_64 : 60-64 JF65_74 : 65-74 JF75 : 75. 55-64 2.6% 0.6%, 65
. 10 1 0.3%, 0.0% (2001, ).. 20032010 <V-11>, <V-12>.. 200355-5959.7%, 69.3% 2005 62.2%, 61.1%, 2010 62.9%, 59.9%. 2003 60-64 69.3%, 68.1%, 200569.1%, 65.6%, 201068.7%, 58.7%. 65-74 75., 60-64(200369.3%, 200569.1%, 2010 68.7%), 55-59 60-64 65-74, 75., 75 2010 85% ( 86.5%, 83.6%).
( ) - <V-11> (2003-2010) < > ( : %) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 40.3 38.6 37.8 37.4 37.2 37.2 37.1 37.1 59.7 61.4 62.2 62.6 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 30.7 30.8 30.9 31 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.3 69.3 69.2 69.1 69 68.9 68.9 68.8 68.7 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.1 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.6 79.7 79.7 79.8 79.9 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14 13.8 13.7 13.5 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.8 86 86.2 86.3 86.5 < > ( : %) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 38.4 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.4 39.6 39.9 40.1 61.6 61.3 61.1 60.8 60.6 60.4 60.1 59.9 31.9 33.1 34.4 35.6 36.9 38.3 39.8 41.3 68.1 66.9 65.6 64.4 63.1 61.7 60.2 58.7 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.3 80.1 80.2 80.3 80.4 80.5 80.5 80.6 80.7 17.3 17.2 17 16.9 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 82.7 82.8 83 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.6 102
. <V-12> (2003-2010) < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 360 355 362 364 376 387 403 434 533 565 595 610 636 653 684 735 195 201 198 202 208 218 230 240 439 453 443 448 460 482 506 528 105 104 103 102 103 107 112 117 400 399 398 397 404 420 441 465 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 14 15 16 17 20 22 24 27 < > ( : ) 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 214 225 237 245 255 264 277 301 342 357 372 380 393 402 417 450 181 200 220 240 261 282 300 318 387 405 419 435 447 453 454 453 96 100 105 109 113 117 119 120 385 406 426 447 467 483 495 503 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 10 12 12 12 14 15 16 18 103
104 ( ) - 4.. 1) 5569. (), ( ) ( ).,,.. 2) 3) : 55 69 7 : 855( ±3.6%)
. 105 : :,,, 4 : 200359 523 4),,.,, 58968.9%, 266 (31.1%). 555924628.8%, 60 6419622.9%. 6569 413(855)48.3%. <-13> ( :, %) (855) 100 % 589 68.9 266 31.1 55-64 442 305 35.7 51.7 137 16.0 65-69 413 284 33.2 48.3 129 15.1 396 46.3 459 53.7 93 10.9 277 32.4 195 22.8 236 27.6 54 6.3,, 396 46.3% 45953.7%..
106 ( ) - 10.9%, 32.4%, 22.8%, 27.6%.. 1), (53.7%), (33.9%), / / / (7.3%), (5.2%). / / / (9.0%). (55-59:41.9%, 60-64:43.9%, 65-69:24.5%),. / / /.,,..,.., / / /.
. 107 <-14> / / N 44 290 62 459 855 % 5.2 33.9 7.3 53.7 100 N 27 200 53 309 589 % 4.6 33.9 9.00 52.5 68.9 N 17 90 9 150 266 % 6.4 33.8 3.4 56.4 31.1 N 21 103 26 96 246 55-59 % 8.5 41.9 10.6 39.0 28.8 N 9 86 16 85 196 60-64 % 4.6 43.9 8.2 43.4 22.9 N 14 101 20 278 413 65-69 % 3.4 24.5 4.8 67.3 48.3 N 3 94 17 176 290 % 1.0 32.4 5.9 60.7 33.9 N 8 67 14 106 195 % 4.1 34.4 7.2 54.4 22.8 N 12 108 27 130 277 % 4.3 38.9 9.8 46.9 32.4 N 21 21 4 47 93 % 22.6 22.6 4.3 50.5 10.9 N 44 44 % 100.0 5.2 N 290 62 352 % 82.4 17.6 41.2 N 459 459 % 100.0 53.7. < -14>,,,.
108 ( ) - 2), (300 ) 9.2%, (150~300 )30.8%, (100~150 )20.4%, (100)39.7%. 300. <-15> 55-59 60-64 65-69 (150~300(100~150 (100 (300 ) ) ) ) N 79 263 174 339 855 % 9.2 30.8 20.4 39.7 100 N 52 177 129 231 589 % 8.8 30.0 21.9 39.2 68.89 N 27 86 45 108 266 % 10.2 32.3 16.9 40.6 31.1 N 36 88 59 63 246 % 14.6 35.8 23.9 25.6 28.8 N 12 58 43 83 196 % 6.1 29.6 21.9 42.4 22.9 N 31 117 72 193 413 % 7.5 28.3 17.4 46.7 48.3 N 15 66 57 152 290 % 5.2 22.8 19.7 52.4 33.9 N 9 60 41 85 195 % 4.6 30.8 21.0 43.6 22.8 N 30 96 61 90 277 % 10.8 34.7 22.0 32.5 32.4 N 25 41 15 12 93 % 26.9 44.1 16.1 12.9 10.9 N 14 20 6 4 44 % 31.8 45.5 13.6 9.1 5.2 N 35 118 86 113 352 % 9.9 33.5 24.4 32.1 41.2 N 30 125 82 222 459 % 6.5 27.2 17.9 48.4 53.7
. 109,.,,. (, ).,.. <-16> N 855 2.62 1.95 0.07 589 2.60 1.93 0.08 266 2.67 1.98 0.12 55-59 246 3.12 2.15 0.14 60-64 196 2.41 1.77 0.13 65-69 413 2.42 1.85 0.09 290 2.14 1.59 0.09 195 2.27 1.52 0.11 277 2.82 1.95 0.12 93 4.29 2.63 0.27 44 4.73 2.67 0.40 352 2.75 1.88 0.10 459 2.32 1.77 0.08 2.62 55-59,.
110 ( ) -. (4.73), (4.29), 55-59(3.12), (2.82). (2.14), (2.27), (2.32). 26). 3)., (49.0%) 37.2%., 9.1%, 4.7%., (54.7%), (: 53.8%, : 53.8%). ( 43.8%, : 47.8%)., 55-59 (60.6%),., 26) < -16>. 2.62. 410,.. 1: 100 2: 100~150 3: 150~200 4: 200~250 5: 250~30006: 300~350 7: 350~400 8: 400~ 450 9: 450~500 10: 500
. 111 60-64,., 55-59 27.6%, 60-65 24.5%, 65-6948.9%60-65. <-17> N 419 78 40 318 855 % 49.0 9.1 4.7 37.2 100 N 322 63 24 180 589 % 54.7 10.7 4.1 30.6 68.9 N 97 15 16 138 266 % 36.5 5.6 6.0 51.9 31.11 55-59 N 149 20 9 68 246 % 60.6 8.1 3.7 27.6 28.8 60-64 N 103 30 15 48 196 % 52.6 15.3 7.7 24.5 22.9 65-69 N 167 28 16 202 413 % 40.4 6.8 3.9 48.9 48.3 N 127 22 13 128 290 % 43.8 7.6 4.5 44.1 33.9 N 93 18 11 73 195 % 47.7 9.2 5.6 37.4 22.8 N 149 28 15 85 277 % 53.8 10.1 5.4 30.7 32.4 N 50 10 1 32 93 % 53.8 10.8 1.1 34.4 10.9 N 23 2 19 44 % 52.3 4.6 43.2 5.2 N 172 73 10 97 352 % 48.9 20.7 2.8 27.6 41.2 N 224 3 30 202 459 % 48.8 0.7 6.5 44.0 53.7
112 ( ) -.. (20.7%)., (48.9%), (27.6%)., (43.2%)(44.0%)., (36.5%), ( 45.8%, 35.2%).,,.,.,,. 4) ), (43.9%), (37.0%), (16.9%). (2.1%),., (: 62.0%> : 47.0%>: 43.0%> : 35.2%> :26.3%), ( 300 : 74.3%). ( : 51.9%, : 52.6%).,, /.
. 113 <-18> 55-59 60-64 65-69 / N 155 184 71 8 1 419 % 36.9 43.9 16.9 1.9 0.2 100 N 120 138 57 7 322 % 37.3 42.9 17.7 2.2 76.8 N 35 46 14 1 1 97 % 36.1 47.4 14.4 1.0 1.0 23.2 N 61 60 25 2 1 149 % 40.9 40.3 16.8 1.3 0.7 35.6 N 39 52 8 4 103 % 37.9 50.5 7.8 3.9 24.6 N 55 72 38 2 167 % 32.9 43.1 22.8 1.2 39.9 N 66 43 17 1 127 % 51.9 33.9 13.4 0.8 30.3 N 34 40 18 1 93 % 36.6 43.0 19.4 1.1 22.2 N 48 70 27 3 1 149 % 32.2 46.9 18.1 2.0 0.7 35.6 N 7 31 9 3 50 % 14.0 62.0 18.0 6.0 11.9 N 7 9 6 1 23 % 30.4 39.1 26.1 4.4 5.5 N 64 83 24 1 172 % 37.2 48.3 13.9 0.6 41.1 N 84 92 41 7 224 % 37.5 41.1 18.3 3.1 53.5 ),
114 ( ) - (78 )., (43.6%), (35.9%), (19.2%).,, (: 70.0% : 57.9%)..,..,.
. 115 <-19> 60-64 55-59 65-69 N 28 34 15 1 78 % 35.9 43.6 19.2 1.3 100 N 23 26 14 63 % 36.5 41.3 22.2 80.8 N 5 8 1 1 15 % 33.3 53.3 6.7 6.7 19.2 N 8 11 1 20 % 40.0 55.0 5.0 25.6 N 9 14 7 30 % 30.0 46.7 23.3 38.5 N 11 9 7 1 28 % 39.3 32.1 25.0 3.6 35.9 N 8 12 1 1 22 % 36.4 54.6 4.5 4.6 28.2 N 9 2 7 18 % 50.0 11.1 38.9 23.1 N 8 13 7 28 % 28.6 46.4 25.0 35.9 N 3 7 10 % 30.0 70.0 12.8 (300) N 8 12 1 1 22 % 36.4 54.6 4.6 4.6 28.2 (150~ 300) (100~ 150) (100) N 9 2 7 18 % 50.0 11.1 38.9 23.1 N 8 13 7 28 % 28.6 46.4 25.0 35.9 N 3 7 10 % 30.0 70.0 12.8
116 ( ) - 5) : (50) 100 ) 100., 59%. 50% 42%, 5170% (44.6%). 71% 13.4%. <-20> 55-59 60-64 65-69 50% 51-70% 71% N 176 187 56 419 % 42.0 44.6 13.4 100 N 126 151 45 322 % 39.1 46.9 13.9 76.9 N 50 36 11 97 % 51.6 37.1 11.3 23.2 N 44 70 35 149 % 29.5 46.9 23.5 35.6 N 45 50 8 103 % 43.7 48.5 7.8 24.6 N 87 67 13 167 % 52.1 40.1 7.8 39.9 N 66 49 12 127 % 51.9 38.6 9.5 30.3 N 37 44 12 93 % 39.8 47.3 12.9 22.2 N 55 71 23 149 % 36.9 47.7 15.4 35.6 N 18 23 9 50 % 36.0 46.0 18.0 11.9 N 9 10 4 23 % 39.1 43.5 17.4 5.5 N 58 81 33 172 % 33.7 47.1 19.2 41.1 N 109 96 19 224 % 48.7 42.9 8.5 53.5
. 117 50%(65 69; 59.5%) (48.7%), ( 100 ; 50.8%). ( 71% ) (23.8%) (18%), (19%), (29.7%).,,.,,.,,. ) 100, 51%. 50%59%, 51~70% 30.8%, 71%10.3%. (51%)(59%),., 50%10 6. ( ), (55.5%) (50.2%).,.
118 ( ) -, 65-69.. <-21> 50% 51-70% 71% N 46 24 8 78 % 58.9 30.8 10.3 100 N 39 19 5 63 % 61.9 30.2 7.9 80.8 N 7 5 3 15 % 46.7 33.3 20.0 19.2 55-59 N 10 7 3 20 % 50.0 35.0 15.0 25.6 60-64 N 17 10 3 30 % 56.7 33.3 10.0 38.5 65-69 N 19 7 2 28 % 67.9 25.0 7.1 35.9 N 14 7 1 22 % 63.6 31.8 4.6 28.2 N 13 2 3 18 % 72.2 11.1 16.7 23.1 N 13 13 2 28 % 46.4 46.4 7.1 35.9 N 6 2 2 10 % 60.0 20.0 20.0 12.8 N 2 2 % 100.0 2.6 N 44 21 8 73 % 60.3 28.8 10.9 93.6 N 3 3 % 100.0 3.9 6) 7 (5569)68
. 119., 70 75(56%). (64.7) (69.1). -2 ( : 67.8) 6.9.,, 5564(9.0)65-69(4.6). 7) (67.1%). (77.2%)/ (83.9%)/ (84.1%). 80%
120 ( ) -., 55-64(87.5%)/ (86.4%). (82.9%). 5564 (87,5%)., 80%, 54. (91.4%)., 51 (20.7%). (10.2%) > (10.1%) > (8.4%)., 17.5%. -3
. 12 1. 1), 13.0%, 10.2%, 7.8%, 7.6%, 4.3%, 4.1% (, 9.7% ).,, (35.3%).,, (15.6%),,, (15.1%) 12.5%. <-22> 1 1+2 / 17.1 27.0 12.1 24.8 10.2 22.0 7.6 10.6 ( ) 6.6 10.4 ( ) 4.3 8.4 3.9 7.4 3.5 4.8 1.7 3.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 18.4 47.7 / 9.7 9.7 (75.5%), (65-69:41.7%). ( :35.5%, :22.1%, : 31.2%). (47.7%), (47.72%)
122 ( ) -. (24.5%), (55-59:29.3%, 60-64:29.1%), (:11.3%), (4.6%).,,, (39.7%),, (18.4%),,, (12.7%),,, (27.5%),,, (22.6%),, (21.6%).,,, (55-59:38.5%, 60-64:36.4%, 65-69:32.2%) (65-69), (12.1%),,, (15.5%)., (60-64:20.7%, 65-69:16.7%).,,,,,,,,,.,,,,.,,,,,.,,,,,,
. 123. 28.0%. <-23>,,, N 35 58 19 9 147 32 21 65 52 438 % 7.9 13.2 4.3 2.1 33.6 7.3 4.8 14.8 11.9 100 N 7 34 17 9 125 11 20 58 45 326 % 1.6 7.8 3.9 2.1 28.5 2.5 4.6 13.2 10.3 74.4 N 28 24 2 22 21 1 7 7 112 % 6.4 5.5 0.5 5.0 4.8 0.2 1.6 1.6 25.6 N 10 21 4 4 47 14 11 11 12 134 55-59 % 2.3 4.8 0.9 0.9 10.7 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 30.6 N 4 13 8 2 44 8 4 25 17 125 60-64 % 0.9 2.9 1.8 0.5 10.1 1.8 0.9 5.7 3.9 28.5 N 21 24 7 3 56 10 6 29 23 179 65-69 % 4.8 5.5 1.6 0.7 12.8 2.3 1.4 6.6 5.3 40.9 N 17 20 2 37 14 7 20 15 132 % 3.9 4.6 0.5 8.5 3.2 1.6 4.6 3.4 30.1 N 9 15 6 1 27 6 4 16 13 97 % 2.1 3.4 1.4 0.2 6.2 1.4 0.9 3.7 2.9 22.2 N 7 19 8 4 64 11 6 23 17 159 % 1.6 4.3 1.8 0.9 14.6 2.5 1.4 5.3 3.9 36.3 N 2 4 3 4 19 1 4 6 7 50 % 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 4.3 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.6 11.4 N 2 2 1 1 4 1 2 7 20 % 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.5 1.6 4.6 N 15 23 9 2 81 14 9 32 25 21 % 3.4 5.3 2.1 0.5 18.5 3.2 2.1 7.3 5.7 47.9 N 18 33 9 6 62 17 12 31 20 208 % 4.1 7.5 2.1 1.4 14.2 3.9 2.7 7.1 4.6 47.5
124 ( ) - 2), 70%.,, 88%. /, 35%. <-24> ( / ), : % ( + ) 70.5% (10.9%+59.6%) 88.0% (35.0%+53.0%) 75.3% (16.3%+59.1%) 72.0% (12.4%+59.6%) - (81.8) - (80.6) - (78.3) - (93.2) - (92.5) - 55~64(85.4) - (93.2) - (82.8) - (81.4) - (81.8) - (80.6) - (78.8). 75.3%. 5564 (85.4%), (80.6%), (93.2%)., (),,
. 125, 300. 3), (25.3%) > (12.7%) > (4.2%) > (4.1%) > (4.0%). 48.5%., / 38% /. (60.9%), (52.9%), ( :69.5%, :79.6%), 100 (57.2%).. -4
126 ( ) -. 1), 30.6% > / 16.8% > 11.3% > 6.3%., 24.4% 4 1., (41.9%, 40.1%), 300 (35.4%), /. ( 48.1%, 34.3%), 100(38.1%), (32.3%)., /. <-25> 1 1+2+3 (,/ / ) 30.6 42.7, 16.8 48.4 11.3 35.8 / 8.2 34.0 4.6 13.5 3.7 17.9,, 0.2 2.5 / 24.4 24.4 2), (70.8%).
. 127 107.. 8.2%, 6.4%, 5.0% 22.3% 5 1.,, (31.6%), (100 26.0%),., (12.4%). -4,, (31.6%), (100 26.0%),., (12.4%).
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154 ( ) -. (2001)., JIL. (2000).., 204 207p. American Association of Retired Persons(1995). Compendium of older worker employment projects. Washington, DC: AARP UN Liaison Office. Bound, J, Schenbaum, M.T., Stinebrickner, T. and Waidmannm T.(1997), Measuring the Effects of Health on Retirement Behaviour, paper presented at International Health and Retirement Surveys conference, Amsterdam, August. Corporation for National Service(1995). Ameri Corps and SeniorCorps. Washington, DC: Corporation for National Service. Ignazio Visco(2001). Ageing Populations: Issues and Policy Challenges. Kiel Week Conference. ILO(1999). Monthly labor review, November. EN/ home/ O.,EN-home-658 -nodirectorate-no-no.2002). Jang, C.W(1995). "Endogenous Growth: Contributions of Education to Economic Development in Korea and Policy Implications". Urbana, Illinois. Joseph F. Quinn(2001). Changing Retirement Trends and Their Impact on Elderly Entilement Programs, "Policies for an aging society" p298. Keese, M and Lee(2002). J. Older but Wiser: "Achieving Better Labour Market Prospects for Older Workers in Korea, (). Koff, TH. & Park, R W.(1999). Aging Public Policy. Bonding the Generations(Second ed). New York Baywood Publishing Company, Inc. Kotlikoff, L.J. and Gokhale, J.(1992). "Estimating a Firm' s Age-Productivity
155 Profile using the Prsent Value of Worker' s Earnings", Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, pp. 1215-1242. Manton, K.G., Corder, L. and Stallard, E.(1997). "Chronic Disability Trends in Elderly United States Population"s: 1982-1994", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, March, pp. 2593-2598. McMahon. Walter W(1993). "Economics of Education, Health, and Human Capital".. 72~87p Medoff, J.L.and and Abraham, K.G.(1981). "Are Those Paid More Really More Productive?", Journal of Human Resources, Spring, pp. 186-216. Quinn, J.F, "Changing retirement trends and their impact on elderly entitlement programs", pp.293315. Polices for an aging society edited by Staurt.H & David I. Shactma, The john Hopkins university press. Warr, P.(1994). "Age and Job Performance". in Snel, J. and Cremer, R.(eds.), Work and Ageing:A European Perspective, Taylor and Francis, London. OECD(1998), Employment Outlook, Paris. pp.136. OECD(1998), Work Force Ageing: Consequences and policy Responses. Workforce Aging in OECD Countries. 123~152p. OECD and Statistics Canada(1995c). Literacy, Economy and Society-Results of the First International Adult Literacy Survey, Paris and Ottawa. OECD(2002), Home Economic Effects of Ageing, http:/ / www.oecd.org The World Bank(1993). The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. UN, The Sex and Age Distribution of World Population,. UN, Demographic Yearbook,. UN(1998), World Population Prospects. (1999),, 3421.
156 ( ) - ( ),,, 1994. (2000),., 2002, 2003. (), 2002, 2003. (), 1988, 1988. (), 2000, 2000.,,, 1995.,, No. 104, 2001. http:/ / www.ehdo.go.jp http:/ / www.enokai.ehdo.go.jp http:/ / www.experienceworks.org http:/ / www.kappd.or.kr/ law/ 2/ ORS.asp http:/ / www.meti.go.jp/ policy/ newbusiness/ downloadfiles/ senior4.pdf http:/ / www.metro.seoul.kr http:/ / www.moleg.go.kr
Abstract 157 Abstract Human Resource Policies (II) for an Aging Society in Korea Korea Research Institute For Vocational Education And Training Research Director : Ch an g-won Jang Researcher : H ae-dong Kim Sang-Jun Lee 1. The goal and contents of the stu dy UN defined an ageing society if the weight of 65 or more years old people is greater than 7% among total population in the population structure of an economy. In 2002, National Statistical Office Republic of Korea (hereafter NSO) reported the weight of 65 or more years old people among total population in Korea is 7.9% and forecasts 14.5% in 2019. According to keep going fast changing to an aging society, the changing of the age structure in labor market, an increasing demand for social welfare, an increasing issues for old people, a culture change of old people and development of silver industry etc. are changing most significantly. However this study is focused of issues for human resources development for old people' s based on labor market changing. The central focus of this study is to increase job competence and employment rate of old people who experienced main occupational job
158 ( ) - in their life cycle based on this research empirical analyses. Research and empirical study composed of 5 main parts. 1) This study surveys the current employment institutions and policies for old people in labor market. The first survey issues are domestic materials. The second survey are the materials of three developed countries, U. S. A, the British Kingdom and Japan. 2) This report includes statistical random variable data, occupational labor force rate, wage level, educational level, job year and status etc. through firm survey and house hold survey raw data made by Korean government. 3) This empirical study estimates the valuable property of old people who are resign and seeking another job to enter labor market again by estimating occupational rate of return to educational investment. Because property of old people effects decision making to find job in very limited low wage level jobs which are supplied situations in Korea. 4) This study also estimates the future occupational labor force rate by using logit model methodology. 5) This study reports the result of surveys by direct facing old people by questioning to compensate old people' s shortage statistical data problems.
Abstract 159 2. Empirical Findings First, labor statistics analyses show that labor force rate of 50-54 years people is stable, 73.2% level, in 2002, it is very similar compared with younger group. But labor force rate of 55-59 years people sharply decreases 64.6%, that of 60-64 55.8%, 65+ years group 30.4%. Wage level of old people experienced white collar main job in life cycle is 240% higher than that of blue collar in 55-59 years group, 290% higher than in 60-64 years group and 65+ years group. And these random variable data are significantly different between job experienced old people of white color and blue color in labor market. Second, empirical analysis estimation suggested the rate of return to educational investment of occupational old people worker. The results show us that the difference of the rate of return between white collar worker and blue collar worker exists a great inequality in labor market. In 60-64 years group, the rate of return of white collar worker is 2.4 times higher than that of blue collar worker in junior secondary educational level, 4.5 times in senior secondary level, 6.4 times in 2 years collage level, 7.4 times in university level. Other things being equal, this research team consider that this results strongly effects to the property formation of old people. Third, another empirical estimation forecasts the labor force rate of old people in the future, by 2010 with using logit model. In the case of old-man, absolute number of economic activity population is forecasted to increase to 2,739 thousand people in 2005 year and to 2,256 thousand people, in 2010 year. In case of old woman case - Except 55-59 years - old woman more than 60 years olds shows uptrend of the economic activity participation rate generally. Specially, the economic activity participation rate is forecasted about
160 ( ) - 43.9% until 2010 and absolute economically population is forecasted to increase to 1,997 thousand people. Forth, the survey show us that the old people' s mind of reentering labor market is 63.2% after retiring. One reason of old people' s finding job is to make money to live on and another reason is fond of loving work it self because of health. Reducing mind old people to find job they wish is difficult point to be recruited and what they can find job is an absolute low wage level. 3. Policy Issues Policy issues deducted through empirical estimates using labor market analysis and survey about old-people policy is sam e as follow. 1) New random variable of related old-people adding to existing surveys and new old-people' s statistics publication 2) Vocational training policy offer by individual' s occupation career or status 3) Official recognition verification system on occupational ability spread out old-people 4) Prior employment occupation be extended and introduce qu arter system by old-people' s occupation or ability 5) It is need distinction extension to employment a basis rate by industry and gradation application by occupation 6) Occup ation exten sion th at is conn ected w ith society service activity 7) Vocational training programme assignment about old-people 8) Old-age countermeasure assignment of old-people 9) System introduction by self-administration of labor and management for old-people employment promotion 10) Realization need about wage peak system
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03-5 () - - 2003 9 30 2003 10 1 215-1(135-949) : http://www.krivet.re.kr : (02) 3485-5000, 5100 : (02) 3485-5200 16-1681(1998. 6. 11) I S B N 89-8436-617-X 93330 () (02) 720-97869. 6,000 : (02)3485-5057, E- mail: sjlee@krivet.re.kr