Sector comment Korea / Internet & Game 26 January 216 OVERWEIGHT Stocks under coverage Company Rating Price Target price BUY 673, 8, BUY 113,1 17, HOLD 47,95 63, HOLD 23,6 23, BUY 12,8 16, (KRW bn) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Mobile PC % of retail(rhs) (%) 25 21 211 212 213 214 215E216E217E218E 자료 : 2 15 1 5, Analyst 3774 1938 yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures
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Figure 1 자료 : Figure 2 Figure 3 3 3
Figure 4 4 4
Figure 5 Figure 6 자료 : 자료 : Figure 7 Figure 8 자료 : 자료 : 우아한형제들, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 5 5
Figure 9 자료 : Figure 1 Figure 11 자료 : 자료 : 6 6
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Figure 13 Figure 14 (KRW tn) 16 Mobile (%) 16 (KRW tn) 2.5 Mobile (%) 14. 14 12 1 PC Portion (%) 15 14 2. 1.5 PC Portion (%) 13.5 13. 12.5 8 13 12. 6 4 2 12 11 1..5 11.5 11. 1.5 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 1. 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 1. 자료 : Figure 15 자료 : Figure 16 (KRW tn) 1.8 Mobile (%) 8. (KRW tn).9 Mobile (%) 22. 1.6 1.4 PC Portion (%) 7.5.8.7 PC Portion (%) 2. 1.2 7..6 18. 1..8 6.5.5.4 16..6 6..3 14..4.2 5.5.2.1 12.. 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 5.. 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 1. 자료 : 자료 : 8 8
Figure 17 Figure 18 기타각종서비스농수산물도서유아용품레저용품화장품음식료품컴퓨터 / 주변기기의류생활 / 자동차용품가전여행 5 1 15 2 25 (%) 기타도서컴퓨터 / 주변기기각종서비스농수산물레저용품유아용품화장품가전음식료품생활 / 자동차용품의류여행 5 1 15 2 (%) 자료 : Figure 19 네이버모두 자료 : Figure 2 네이버스토어팜 9 9
1 1
Figure 23 (KRW tn) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 음식료품차량연료의복승용차통신기기가전제품화장품신발가방의약품오락취미서적문구가구 11 11
Figure 27 소셜커머스와오프라인매장과의연계 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터 12 12
Figure 28 (KRW tn) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 주류 / 담배 가계시설 통신 의료 / 보건 교육 의류 / 신발 오락 / 문화 음식 / 숙박 교통 식음료품 주거관련 Figure 29 Figure 3 13 13
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Figure 32 국내인터넷쇼핑시장전망 ( 플랫폼별 ) Figure 33 국내인터넷쇼핑시장전망망 ( 카테고리별 ) (KRW bn) (%) (KRW bn) 9 Mobile PC % of retail(rhs) 25 9 8 8 기타 소셜커머스 오픈마켓 7 2 7 6 5 15 6 5 4 3 1 4 3 2 5 2 1 1 21 211 212 213 214 215E216E217E218E 21 211 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E Figure 34 가격비교사이트수익구조 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터 15 15
Figure 35 연령대별크로스오버쇼퍼세그멘테이션 (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 7 12 42 18 Total 9 1 14 5 27 2 대 8 6 8 53 25 3 대 24 9 13 37 17 4 대 44 12 14 25 5 5 대 순수오프라인 역쇼루머 순수인터넷 옴니쇼퍼 쇼루머 자료 : 16 16
Figure 37 네이버지식쇼핑거래금액및점유율전망 ( 추정 ) Figure 38 네이버검색광고매출및쇼핑관련매출비중 ( 추정 ) (KRW bn) 14, 12, 1, 8, GMV(LHS) % of e-commerce(rhs) (%) 18 16 14 12 1 (KRW bn) 2,5 2, 1,5 SA revenue(lhs) Shopping %(RHS) (%) 14 12 1 8 6, 4, 2, 8 6 4 2 1, 5 6 4 2 211 212 213 214 215E216E217E218E 211 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E Figure 39 오픈마켓 vs. 소셜커머스 PC 순방문자추이 Figure 4 오픈마켓 vs. 소셜커머스모바일앱순방문자추이 (million) 5 45 4 오픈마켓 소셜커머스 (million) 25 2 오픈마켓 소셜커머스 35 15 3 25 1 2 15 1 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 5 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 17 17
Figure 41 국내 PG 시장전망 Figure 42 국내통신과금시장전망 (KRW tn) 1 9 8 7 6 Others Moeny transfer Virtual account Credit card 5 4 3 2 1 21 211 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E (KRW bn) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 21 211 212 213 214 215E216E217E218E Figure 43 국내 PG 시장점유율 (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 13 12 11 11 14 15 16 35 33 33 32 33 33 33 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E Others KCP LGU+ KG Inicis 18 18
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Figure 46 Figure 47 자료 : 자료 : Figure 48 자료 : 2 2
21 21
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Figure 52 자료 : Figure 53 (million) 45 UK Denmark Others 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Figure 54 (million) 12 # of active users(lhs) # of restaurants(rhs) 1 8 6 4 2 (') 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 3 자료 : 자료 : 23 23
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Company Analysis 25 25
Company update Korea / Internet & Game 26 January 216 BUY (25 Jan 216) 8, 원 673, 원 Upside/downside (%) 18.9 KOSPI 1,893.43 22,184 461,5-78, 53.49 56.6 Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 E Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 2,758 3,261 3,899 4,48 758.2 794.7 1,124.9 1,399.4 451.8 537.1 782.4 971.4 454.5 539.6 788. 978.3 13,787 16,37 23,96 29,68 (77.1) 18.7 46. 24.2 51.6 38.6 28.2 22.7 24.9 2.4 15.6 12.2.1.1.1.1 13.1 8.6 7. 5.4 27.8 25.5 28.1 26.7 (56.1) (62.8) (71.8) (78.3) Performance (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSPI (RHS) 84, 79, 74, 69, 64, 59, 54, 49, 44, Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 (%) 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Performance 1M 3M 12M 4. 17.9 (13.7) 8.9 25.1 (11.5), Analyst 3774 1938 yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures 26
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW bn) 14,, 12,, 1,, GMV(LHS) % of e-commerce(rhs) (%) 18 16 14 12 (KRW bn) 3, 2,5 2, Mobile PC 8,, 6,, 1 8 1,5 4,, 2,, 6 4 2 1, 5 211 212 213 214 215E216E217E218E 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 2 27
18, Analyst, 82 2 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 28
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 4 29
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW) 2,, (KRW) 1,2, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 5x 4x 3x 2x 1x 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 12x 1x 8x 6x 4x 25 27 29 211 213 215 25 27 29 211 213 215 (x) 6 (x) 25 5 2 4 3 +2std +1std 15 +2std +1std 2 1 25 27 29 211 213 215 Avg. -1std -2std 1 5 25 27 29 211 213 215 Avg. -1std -2std 5 3
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com Summary financial statements 자료 : 네이버, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 자료 : 네이버, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 자료 : 네이버, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 자료 : 네이버, 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 6 31
Initiating coverage Korea / Internet & Game 26 January 216 HOLD (25 Jan 216) 23, 원 23,6 원 Upside/downside (%) (2.5) KOSDAQ 681.43 427 23,4-42,8 3.4 1.2 Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 E Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 154 196 261 37 8.8 9.8 16. 22.5 8.4 1.8 14.5 19.6 8.6 11.1 14.7 2. 66 613 815 1,17 18.1 1.1 33. 35.7 44.1 57.5 28.9 21.3 21.1 25.6 12. 9.1..3.5.5 5.9 6.9 4.1 3.5 14.5 12.7 14.9 17.6 (18.8) (11.4) (11.7) (115.4) Performance (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSDAQ (RHS) 47, 42, 37, 32, 27, 22, Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 (%) 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Performance 1M 3M 12M (5.8) (21.3) (31.2) (.9) (14.1) (29.), Analyst 3774 1938 yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures 32
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 2 33
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW) 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 3 34
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 4 35
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW) 6, 65x 5, 4, 5x 3, 35x 2, 2x 1, 5x 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 (KRW) 5, 45, 7.5x 4, 35, 6.x 3, 4.5x 25, 2, 3.x 15, 1, 1.5x 5, 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 (x) (x) 6 8 5 4 3 2 1 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 +2std +1std Avg. -1std 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 +2std +1std Avg. -1std -2std 5 36
18, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 37
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW bn) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Others Offline van Online van PG (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 18 19 17 12 11 9 3 3 2 4 4 4 78 76 79 84 86 88 Others Offline van Online van PG 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E (%) NHN 엔터, 3.2 Others, 63.3 우주스킨사이언스, 6.5 7 38
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com Summary financial statements 8 39
Initiating coverage Korea / Internet & Game 26 January 216 BUY (25 Jan 216) 16, 12,8 Upside/downside (%) 25. KOSDAQ 681.43 34 12,15-27,6 3.62 4. Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-14 Dec-15 E Dec-16 E Dec-17 E 548 78 8 888 39.8 24.2 44.9 67.3 25.7 8.8 29. 45.4 17.7 2.6 2. 31.3 696 97 753 1,178 4.8 (86.1) 677.7 56.5 25.7 155. 17. 1.9 1.4 18.1 8.8 5.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.6 11.6 15.4 (2.) 33.5 25.2 12.5 (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSDAQ (RHS) 3, 28, 26, 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Performance 1M 3M 12M (16.1) (24.3) (5.4) (11.2) (17.1) (48.2), Analyst 3774 1938 yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (%) 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 See the last page of this report for important disclosures 4
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 2 41
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 3 42
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 4 43
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW) (KRW) 5, 35, 45, 4, 35, 45x 3, 25, 4.5x 3.5x 3, 35x 25, 2, 25x 15, 15x 1, 5, 5x 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 2, 2.5x 15, 1, 1.5x 5,.5x 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 (x) (x) 6 5. 5 +2std 4.5 4. 4 3 +1std 3.5 3. 2.5 +2std +1std 2 1 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Avg. -1std 2. 1.5 1..5. 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Avg. -1std -2std 5 44
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW bn) 9 8 7 6 5 기타소셜커머스오픈마켓 (KRW bn) 7 6 5 4 PG revenue(lhs) GMV(RHS) (KRW bn) 25, 2, 15, 4 3 2 1 3 2 1 1, 5, 21 211 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 13 12 11 11 14 15 16 35 33 33 32 33 33 33 Others KCP LGU+ KG Inicis 6 45
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (%) 1 (KRW tn, bn) 6 택배시장 ( 매출 ) (%) 6. 5 5 택배시장 ( 물량 ) 택배 ASP 5. 4 M/S(RHS) 4. 3 3. (5) 2 2. (1) Total OPM(LHS) KG Logis OPM(RHS) 1 1. (15) 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E. (KRW bn, m) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 매출 물량 GPM(RHS) (%) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 7 46
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, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com (KRW bn) 1,2 1, 8 6 기타운송 (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 9 13 21 7 31 3 3 29 8 7 7 6 기타운송용역 4 2 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 용역상품수수료 4 3 2 1 73 66 57 59 61 62 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 상품수수료 (%) KG 케미칼, 3.8 Others, 57.5 케이지, 1.6 곽재선, 1.1 9 48
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com 1 49
, Analyst, 3774 1938, yongjei.jeong@miraeasset.com Summary financial statements 11 5
Recommendations Distribution of Ratings Compliance Notice Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 94, 89, 84, 79, 74, 69, 64, 59, 54, 49, 44, Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Date Recommendation 12m target price 214-6-12 BUY (Initiate) 93, 214-6-25 BUY 93, 214-7-21 BUY 93, 214-7-31 BUY 93, 214-1-1 BUY 1,1, (Up) 214-1-13 BUY 1,1, 214-1-3 BUY 1,1, 215-1-9 BUY 1,1, 215-1-3 BUY 1,1, Change in analyst 215-5-7 BUY (Initiate) 88, 215-5-19 BUY 88, 215-7-6 BUY 88, 215-7-31 BUY 72, (Down) 215-9-9 BUY 72, 215-1-14 BUY 72, 215-1-3 BUY 72, 215-11-18 BUY 72, 216-1-5 BUY 8, (Up) 216-1-26 BUY 8, Date Recommendation 12m target price 216-1-26 HOLD (Initiate) 23, (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 47,4 42,4 37,4 32,4 27,4 22,4 17,4 12,4 7,4 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 26
Date Recommendation 12m target price 216-1-26 BUY (Initiate) 16, (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 29,9 27,9 25,9 23,9 21,9 19,9 17,9 15,9 13,9 11,9 9,9 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 27