mjoh@hanastock.co.kr
(1999=100) 125 120 CSI() () () 1.6 1.4 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 99 00 01 02 03 04 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4
100 (%) 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 ( 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 7,164 4,077 2,408 2,000 1,000
(%) 2,450 7.0 () 90,000 () () (%) 9.0 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 2,100 5.0 3.0 1.0-1.0-3.0-5.0 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2,050-7.0 2000-01 2000-09 2001-05 2002-01 2002-09 2003-05 65,000 `00.1Q `00.3Q `01.1Q `01.3Q `02.1Q `02.3Q `03.1Q `03.3Q 0.0 ( 16,000 14,000 ( 45,000 40,000 12,000 35,000 10,000 8,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 6,000 15,000 4,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003-5,000 `00.1Q `00.2Q `00.3Q `00.4Q `01.1Q `01.2Q `01.3Q `01.4Q `02.1Q `02.2Q `02.3Q `02.4Q `03.1Q `03.2Q `03.3Q `03.4Q 04.1Q 04.2Q 04.3Q
( 300 250 200 150 100 50 M ( ) N ( ) ( e A+ ( ) ( ) A+ e M ( ) 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 N ( ) 0 200 400 600 800 1000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% e-learning () 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 () = 120,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 '01. 7 '02. 1 '02. 7 '03. 1 '03. 7 '04. 1 ( 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 02 03 04 EBS ( ) 25 20 15 10 5 2001 2002 2003 2004 (%) () () () () 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
mjoh@hanastock.co.kr
( ( 2003 2004P 2005E 2006E 2003 2004P 2005E 2006E 228 561 602 615 460 503 623 715 186 469 484 474 125.9% 9.3% 23.9% 14.8% 31 81 106 128 157 182 255 283 9 9 9 9 ( ) 34.2% 36.1% 41.0% 39.6% 0 0 0 0 303 321 368 432 121 176 174 170 123.0% 6.1% 14.5% 17.4% 34 82 80 77 98 123 133 154 82 88 87 87 205 198 235 277 5 6 6 6 118.1% -3.6% 18.7% 18.1% 349 737 776 785 7 12 13 13 80 79 77 75 7 8 10 12 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212 210 247 290 0 0 0 0 121.2% -0.9% 17.9% 17.4% 75 73 72 70 0 0 0 0 8 6 6 6 60 61 73 86 0 0 0 0 151 148 174 204 0 0 0 0 122.9% -2.1% 17.5% 17.3% 8 6 6 6 88 85 83 81 24 30 30 30 8 241 241 241 228 380 421 432 (,%,) 260 652 693 704 2003 2004P 2005E 2006E -129-465 -507-521 Valuation() PER 13.8 11.7 10.0 PBR 2.3 2.7 2.7 PCFR 9.7 10.6 9.1 PSR 3.0 3.1 2.7 EV /EBITDA 4.6 5.5 4.6 ( 2003 2004P 2005E 2006E EPS 3,234 2,447 2,875 3,372 198 197 232 248 BPS 5,532 10,762 11,439 11,610 151 148 174 204 CFPS 3,330 2,524 2,955 3,455 5 5 5 5 SPS 9,818 8,294 10,274 11,796 40 31 47 31 EBITDAPS 4,474 3,339 3,951 4,654 2 14 6 7-74 -275-218 -258 65.8 63.9 59.0 60.4-80 -24 24-146 44.6 39.3 37.7 38.8 11-248 -241-102 46.0 41.7 39.7 40.6-5 -2-1 -9 32.9 29.5 28.0 28.6 4 360 0 0 EBITDA Margin 45.6 40.3 38.5 39.5 0 0 0 0 ROE 83.1 32.5 25.9 29.3 4 360 0 0 0 0 0 0 34.0 13.0 11.9 11.5 128 282 14-10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 59 186 468 483-49.4-71.3-73.1-74.1 186 468 483 473 (X) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
mjoh@hanastock.co.kr
( ( 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 115 101 114 119 142 172 204 234 74 45 60 64 13.3% 20.9% 18.5% 14.5% 5 0 0 0 62 84 98 110 31 37 34 36 ( ) 43.4% 48.5% 47.9% 47.1% 0 0 0 0 81 89 106 124 46 70 71 69 12.4% 9.9% 20.0% 16.3% 33 59 60 58 59 67 78 90 2 2 2 2 21 21 29 34 12 9 9 9-21.3% 1.6% 34.3% 16.9% 161 170 184 188 2 6 9 8 26 27 25 25 3 5 6 7 6 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 27 38 42 0 0 0 0-18.4% 15.6% 38.5% 10.0% 20 21 20 20 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 7 8 11 13 0 0 0 0 17 20 26 29 0 0 0 0-26.7% 14.2% 35.4% 9.2% 2 2 2 2 27 28 27 27 24 24 24 24 52 53 53 53 57 65 80 84 (,%,) 133 142 157 161 2003 2004 2005E 2006E -51-17 -33-37 Valuation() PER 16.3 10.1 7.4 6.8 PBR 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 PCFR 11.9 5.7 4.5 4.2 PSR 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 EV/EBITDA 9.3 3.7 2.5 2.1 ( 2003 2004 2005E 2006E EPS 432 401 544 593 15 26 33 43 BPS 2,798 2,915 3,233 3,306 17 20 26 29 CFPS 590 549 691 741 6 7 7 7 SPS 3,596 3,536 4,191 4,800-12 -5-6 2 EBITDAPS 692 588 740 840 3 4 5 5-58 -2-9 -31 56.6 51.5 52.1 52.9-1 -1-1 -5 14.8 12.5 14.1 14.4-51 5-5 -25 16.6 15.8 18.5 17.8-6 -6-4 -1 12.0 11.3 13.0 12.4 42-12 -10-9 EBITDA Margin 19.2 16.6 17.7 17.5 0 0 0 0 ROE 16.5 14.2 17.7 18.2 42 0 0 0 0-11 -10-10 20.6 20.0 17.2 16.9-1 12 13 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14 13 25 39-38.4-11.7-20.9-22.7 13 25 39 41 (X) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0