2009.11.17 Analyst 3770-3549 Analyst 3770-3478 2010 년투자환경 ( 핵심화두는스마트폰과 FMC & FMS) 유선네트워크의가치재조명
3 FMC & FMS / / M&A 6 Catch 6 1: M&A 7 2 : 8 3: Low growth 9 FMC FMS 10 FMS / FMC 10 FMC 11 1 : 12 FMS : 0.0% ~ 0.5% (SK ) 12 FMC : 0.5% ~ 3.6% (KT ) 14 2 : (FMC) 16 FMC + 16 : 17 18 3: 20 FMC 21 22 : FMC & FMS 22 N/W Utilization 23 EV 24 Valuation : KT New LG 26 PEER : KT > SKT 27 28 2010 29 : 2010 29 : 2009 32 : 33 & 33 & 38 44 : 45 : SK Case 47 48 Valuation 50 : SK & 54 SK 58 KT 61 LG 64 SK 68
2010 년투자환경 ( 핵심화두는스마트폰과 FMC & FMS) 유선네트워크의가치재조명
KT LG (LGD+LGP) SK (SKB+SKN) (km) 312,366 (km) 228,344 212,473 99,067 (km) 113,084 6,718 6,315 () 3,781,468 1,962 41,423 AP 5 160 300~400 EV() () EV() SK 21,346,093 27,616,706 772,941 KT 16,775,796 27,719,374 605,201 LG 6,181,414 10,813,959 571,614 Valuation Recovery KT, 1.8. SK FMC LG. 4. FMC
FMC 영향은? FMC & ARPU ARPU 10% -0.7% 5.9% 5.20% 676,946 297,067 59,100 134,353 3.7% 20% -1.4% 11.9% 10.50% 1,355,486 594,134 118,200 269,583 7.5% 30% -2.1% 17.9% 15.80% 2,034,017 891,201 177,300 404,808 11.2% 경쟁환경 : 2010 년에도경쟁안정화가능성은희박 규제 : 2009 년에비해완화예상
첫째, 상기시장경쟁상황변화로인해통신서비스업종이재평가될수있는환경이조 성될수있는가? - ARPU 가상승할수있는가? 둘째, 경쟁구조의변화속에서부각될수있는각기업의경쟁력은무엇인가?
6.3% 14.8% 30.1% 93.8% 50.0% 56.9% 61.2% 67.9% 70.1% 75.9% 79.5% 83.2% 89.8% 96.7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 141.6% 144.8% 144.9% 140.7% 142.0% 144.1% 120% 140% 160% 180% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 28.2% 51.7% 69.1% 94.2% 92.8% 92.0% 87.8% 77.2% 76.7% 73.1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
SKT KT LGT LGD SKBB () 2007 112,859 119,364 32,491 13,531 18,683 2008 116,747 117,848 34,323 16,473 18,614 2009E 121,478 158,551 36,064 18,791 18,539 2010E 124,584 185,802 75,911 20,718 () 2007 28,040 7,946 2,925 - - 2008 24,430 9,114 3,125 - - 2009E 26,364 9,571 3,401 - - 2010E 27,355 12,742 3,548 - () 2007 21,715 14,337 3,239 2,292 809 2008 20,599 11,134 3,790 2,173-227 2009E 22,814 14,707 4,229 2,336-838 2010E 22,963 18,241 8,370 131 () 2007 16,425 9,820 2,753 1,339 72 2008 12,777 4,498 2,836 1,203-988 2009E 13,833 10,899 3,316 1,710-1,605 2010E 13,155 11,097 6,175-524 EBITDA() 2007 40,238 36,297 6,778 3,745 5,796 2008 40,033 33,824 7,788 3,490 4,181 2009E 41,966 43,497 8,576 3,605 3,248 2010E 42,601 50,353 17,708 4,455 ('000) 2007 21,968 13,721 7,809 - - 2008 23,032 14,365 8,210 - - 2009E 24,288 15,007 8,717 - - 2010E 24,825 15,386 9,090 - ('000) 2007-20,919 - - 2,019 2008-19,866 - - 2,003 2009E - 18,053 - - 1,602 2010E - 16,197 0 1,323 ('000) 2007-0 - 74 0 2008-328 - 635 40 2009E - 1,569-1,107 1,008 2010E - 2,699 3,241 1,848 ('000) 2007-6,516-68 3,680 2008-6,712-29 3,521 2009E - 6,844-10 3,855 2010E - 6,943 2,857 4,208
FMS FMC (Cell) AP AP, 2,000 FMC ( ) / Hand-off / Hand-off -> s/w. ( SKBB) &
& Commodity, WIFI /WIFI Convergence 2.0. FMS Zone Based O - ( ) ( ) ( : LGT, Zuhause, SK T) O O, (, IM, ) FMC Bluetooth O - ( ) (: KT, BT Bluephone) WiFi O O VoIP, (, IM, ) ( : MyLG070, Orange UNIK, KT) IP-PBX WPABX,, VPN - O IP-PBX/ Centrex/ CallBox/ G/W ( :, )
10 13 10 18 3 39 2000/ Call MM ( ) ML( ) MM ML 10 18 200 360 360 260 78 MM 27.8% ML 78.3%
M to M 28% M to L 78% MOU 200 SKT-SKT 52.5% SKT-M 31.0% SKT-L 16.5% M to M 83.5% M to L 16.5% 36.1% 30% 10.8% ARPU 21,600 2,340 2,000 340 () 50 109 0.2% 100 340 0.8% 200 340 0.8% 400 398 0.9% 500 433 1.0% Call () () 50 100 200 400 500 5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 20% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 40% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 50% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
(AP ) 10 13 10 18 3 39 Call MM ML MM ML 10 18 200 360 360 260 78 MM 27.8% ML 78.3% M to M 28% M to L 78% MOU 200 KT-KT 28.8% KT-M 50.3% KT-L 20.9% M to M 79.1% M to L 20.9% 38.4% 30% 11.5% ARPU 21,600 2,485 2,485
() 50 2,192 6.1% 100 2,485 6.9% 200 2,485 6.9% 400 2,559 7.1% 500 2,603 7.2% Call () () 50 100 200 400 500 5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 10% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 20% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 30% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 40% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 50% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
12 25 10 20 8 15 6 4 10 2 5 0 0
iphone Android Palm Pre BlackBerry Palm Treo 77% 86% 71% 59% 41% 43% 75% 76% 73% 72% 45% 40% / 65% 62% 57% 30% 45% 20% 53% 47% 57% 44% 59% 32% / 48% 41% 53% 31% 32% 34% UI/OS 43% 50% 45% 19% 18% 11% 35% 26% 13% 26% 18% 14% 23% 28% 27% 28% 25% 41% / 17% 33% 29% 39% 18% 43% 5% 7% 8% 23% 16% 6% 5% 11% 4% 6% 7% 5% 45 16 40 14 35 30 25 20 15 10 12 10 8 6 4 5 2 0 0 SKT KT LGT
SKT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 5,802 43,561 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.00% 20% 7,802 45,561 4.60% 1,155,317 4.70% 481,478 153,946 3.10% 30% 9,801 47,560 9.20% 2,310,749 9.30% 962,957 307,955 6.20% 40% 11,801 49,560 13.80% 3,466,181 14.00% 1,444,435 461,965 9.30% 50% 13,801 51,560 18.40% 4,621,614 18.60% 1,925,913 615,974 12.40% KT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 4,407 36,214 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.00% 20% 6,562 38,369 5.90% 768,073 2.50% 297,067 125,373 3.40% 30% 8,716 40,523 11.90% 1,536,217 4.90% 594,134 250,785 6.80% 40% 10,871 42,678 17.90% 2,304,361 7.40% 891,201 376,197 10.20% 50% 13,026 44,833 23.80% 3,072,505 9.90% 1,188,268 501,610 13.60% LGT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 2,545 40,534 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.00% 20% 4,374 42,362 4.50% 377,398 1.20% 172,008 35,561 3.90% 30% 6,202 44,191 9.00% 754,776 2.40% 344,015 71,112 7.80% 40% 8,030 46,019 13.50% 1,132,154 3.60% 516,023 106,662 11.80% 50% 9,859 47,847 18.00% 1,509,532 4.80% 688,030 142,212 15.70%
SKT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 5,802 43,561 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.0% 20% 7,802 45,561 4.6% 1,155,317 4.7% 601,848 33,576 0.7% 30% 9,801 47,560 9.2% 2,310,749 9.3% 1,203,696 67,216 1.4% 40% 11,801 49,560 13.8% 3,466,181 14.0% 1,805,543 100,856 2.0% 50% 13,801 51,560 18.4% 4,621,614 18.6% 2,407,391 134,496 2.7% KT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 4,407 36,214 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.0% 20% 6,562 38,369 5.9% 768,073 2.5% 371,334 51,106 1.4% 30% 8,716 40,523 11.9% 1,536,217 4.9% 742,668 102,252 2.8% 40% 10,871 42,678 17.9% 2,304,361 7.4% 1,114,001 153,397 4.2% 50% 13,026 44,833 23.8% 3,072,505 9.9% 1,485,335 204,543 5.5% LGT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 2,545 40,534 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.0% 20% 4,374 42,362 4.5% 377,398 1.2% 215,010-7,441-0.8% 30% 6,202 44,191 9.0% 754,776 2.4% 430,019-14,892-1.6% 40% 8,030 46,019 13.5% 1,132,154 3.6% 645,029-22,344-2.5% 50% 9,859 47,847 18.0% 1,509,532 4.8% 860,038-29,796-3.3% SKT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 5,802 43,561 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.0% 20% 7,802 45,561 4.60% 1,155,317 4.70% 0 635,424 12.8% 30% 9,801 47,560 9.20% 2,310,749 9.30% 0 1,270,912 25.6% 40% 11,801 49,560 13.80% 3,466,181 14.00% 0 1,906,400 38.4% 50% 13,801 51,560 18.40% 4,621,614 18.60% 0 2,541,888 51.2% KT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 4,407 36,214 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.0% 20% 6,562 38,369 5.90% 768,073 2.50% 0 422,440 11.5% 30% 8,716 40,523 11.90% 1,536,217 4.90% 0 844,919 22.9% 40% 10,871 42,678 17.90% 2,304,361 7.40% 0 1,267,399 34.4% 50% 13,026 44,833 23.80% 3,072,505 9.90% 0 1,689,878 45.8% LGT Data ARPU ARPU ARPU () 10% 2,545 40,534 0% 0 0% 0 0 0.0% 20% 4,374 42,362 4.50% 377,398 1.20% 0 207,569 22.8% 30% 6,202 44,191 9.00% 754,776 2.40% 0 415,127 45.5% 40% 8,030 46,019 13.50% 1,132,154 3.60% 0 622,685 68.9% 50% 9,859 47,847 18.00% 1,509,532 4.80% 0 830,243 91.7%
Fact KT FMC KT() 14,853,352 6,769,580 19,930,215 () 200,000 200,000 70,000 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% 1.1% Simulation 10% 10% () 1,485,335 1,485,335 1,485,335 10.0% 21.9% 7.5% 2.9% 1.9% 1.5% () 321 214 56 () 591 () 18,000 3.3% 20% 20% () 2,970,670 2,970,670 2,970,670 20.0% 43.9% 14.9% 2.8% 1.7% 1.4% () 642 428 112 () 1,182 () 18,000 6.6% 30% 30% () 4,456,006 4,456,006 4,456,006 30.0% 65.8% 22.4% 2.7% 1.6% 1.4% () 962 642 168 () 1,773 () 18,000 9.8%
1. 음성 ARPU 하락 2. 데이터 ARPU 상승 3. 해지율하락 4. 종합 (KT 기준 ) 5. 가입자유치경쟁력개선 FMC & ARPU ARPU 10% -0.7% 5.9% 5.20% 676,946 297,067 59,100 134,353 3.7% 20% -1.4% 11.9% 10.50% 1,355,486 594,134 118,200 269,583 7.5% 30% -2.1% 17.9% 15.80% 2,034,017 891,201 177,300 404,808 11.2%
KT LG (LGD+LGP) SK (SKB+SKN) (km) 312,366 (km) 228,344 212,473 99,067 (km) 113,084 6,718 6,315 () 3,781,468 1,962 41,423 AP 5 160 300~400
3Q 09 SK 72,106 KT 137,558 LG 44,926 그룹별가입자측정방식 PSTN VoIP IPTV ARPU 33,000 21,000 14,000 10,500 9,000 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 SK 24,073,913 3,777,870 1,587,090 762,544 816,768 SK 24,073,913 2,404,099 673,311 242,628 222,755 27,616,706 KT 14,853,352 6,769,580 18,882,180 1,048,035 784,741 KT 14,853,352 4,307,915 8,010,622 333,466 214,020 27,719,374 LG 8,600,380 2,463,566 0 1,817,122 248,159 LG 8,600,380 1,567,724 0 578,175 67,680 10,813,959
EV() () EV() SK 21,346,093 27,616,706 772,941 KT 16,775,796 27,719,374 605,201 LG 6,181,414 10,813,959 571,614
KT LG Valuation Recovery, 1.8. SK FMC. 4. FMC PER EV/EBITDA PBR 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E SKT 10.4 10.9 4.2 3.7 1.3 1.2 KT 9.5 9.4 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.9 SKB N/A N/A 7.9 6.0 1.1 1.1 LGT 6.9 6.6 3.4 3.2 1.0 0.9 LGD 8.6 7.0 4.4 3.5 1.0 0.9 LGP 20.9 9.9 3.8 3.4 0.8 0.7 NTT Docomo 11.0 10.8 3.7 3.7 1.2 1.1 KDDI 8.2 7.4 2.9 2.8 1.0 0.9 NTT 10.7 10.2 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.6 China Unicom 20.9 26.1 4.1 4.0 1.1 1.0 China Mobile 11.5 11.3 4.8 4.7 2.6 2.3 China Telecom 17.5 14.9 4.4 4.3 1.2 1.1 AT&T 12.4 11.7 5.3 5.1 1.6 1.5 Verizon 12.3 12.0 5.5 5.4 1.5 1.4 SprintNextel N/A N/A 3.9 4.2 0.5 0.5 Chunghwa 14.0 13.5 6.2 6.0 1.6 1.5 Taiwan Mobile 14.2 12.6 8.6 7.9 3.6 3.4 Vodafone 9.4 9.1 7.3 7.3 0.8 0.8 France Tel. 9.6 9.4 4.8 4.9 1.6 1.6 Deutsche Tel. 14.7 13.4 4.6 4.6 1.1 1.1 Telefonica 11.3 10.3 6.2 6.2 4.6 4.0 Telecom Italia 11.3 10.5 5.1 5.3 0.8 0.8 Telenor ASA 11.6 12.1 5.6 6.1 1.5 1.4 TeliaSonera AB 11.6 11.1 8.1 7.9 1.6 1.5 Singtel 12.3 11.5 9.7 9.3 2.1 1.9 Telstra 10.0 9.5 5.1 5.0 3.2 3.1 Average 12.1 11.3 5.3 5.0 1.5 1.4
2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E SK 3.6 3.78 4.5 4.72 4.72 KT 4.3 4.09 2.99 5.09 5.09 LG - 3.05 2.01 3.61 5.78 LG 3.06 2.35 2.51 3.53 - China Unicom 1.57 1.19 2.44 1.68 1.45 China Mobile 2.09 1.47 3.52 3.87 4.05 NTT Docomo 1.83 3.18 3.59 3.99 4.08 KDDI 1.01 1.72 2.38 2.56 2.67 Chunghwa Telecom 5.91 6.47 7.16 6.77 6.65 Taiwan Mobile 7.66 5.85 9.65 6.72 7.00 AT&t 3.78 3.54 5.65 6.28 6.42 Verizon 4.35 3.82 5.25 6.20 6.35 Vodafone 4.99 4.98 6.33 5.93 6.08 France Telecom 5.73 5.28 7.01 8.19 8.38 Bharti Airtel - - - 0.69 1.05 Telstra 7.61 6.1 6.6 8.73 9.22
2010 년투자환경 ( 핵심화두는스마트폰과 FMC & FMS) 유선네트워크의가치재조명
3 KT LG ( ) Lock In SK CEO 3 ( )
ARPU () 29,600, SK 20% Discount 18,500 KT KTF 50.5%. Volume discount 8,880,, IT,, ARPU 30% 2,220 100,000 45 (20, 90 )
유선시장은개별사업자별로성장의기대가남아있는상황 LGT 18.1% LGT 19.9% KT 31.3% SKT 50.6% KT 26.2% SKT 53.8% SKB 29.0% LGP 18.8% LGD 0.1% KT 52.1% LGP 44.1% KT 16.7% SKB 39.2% LGP LGD SKB 4.0% 3.9% 10.4% LGD 26.7% SKB 39.5% KT 81.7% LGP 33.8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (06) 30%(07 ), (07), (1100->800), SMS ( 30->20), MVNO, 20% / (2010 4 ),,, 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SKT 63.6 45.7 41 31.8 31.2 33.1 32.8 33.4 32.9 KTF 65.7 53.5 48 47.6 46.7 40.1 39.6 38.7 38.0 LGT 65.7 59 51.9 58.6 55 47 45.1 39.1 38.5 KT() 15.9 16.2 14.9 17.8 18.1 18.2 18.9 19.5 19.3 KT() 13.2 12.7 11.3 16.2 16.5 15.6 17.3 7.6 7.6 (YoY) SKT -28.1% -10.3% -22.4% -1.9% 6.1% -0.9% 1.9% -1.4% KTF -18.6% -10.3% -0.8% -1.9% -14.1% -1.2% -2.3% -1.9% LGT -10.2% -12.0% 12.9% -6.1% -14.5% -4.0% -13.3% -1.5% KT() 1.9% -8.0% 19.5% 1.7% 0.6% 3.8% 3.2% -0.9% KT() -3.8% -11.0% 43.4% 1.9% -5.5% 10.9% -56.1% 0.0%
<HTC G1 > T-Mobile 4 2008-10-22 G1 Verizon 1 0910 Sprint Nextel 3 0910 Hero Rogers Wireless 1 2009-06-02 G1 NTT Docomo 1 2009-07-10 HT-03A Vodafone 2 2009-05-01 HTC-Magic T-Mobile 4 2008-10-30 G1 T-Mobile 1 2009-02-02 China Telecom 3 09 6 China Unicom 2 09 6 Optus 2 2009-02-05 G1 Telefonica 1 2009-04-20 G1 SingTel 1 G1 2009-02-21 G1
34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 150,000 148,000 146,000 144,000 142,000 140,000 138,000 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 ( ) Apr-09 Apr-09 May-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Jul-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Oct-09
90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 AT&T Verizon T-Mobile 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 AT&T Verizon T-Mobile 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 06 4Q 06 2Q 07 4Q 07 2Q 08 4Q 08 2Q 09 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% AT&T Verizon T-Mobile 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09
(million$) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 AT&T Verizon T-Mobile 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% AT&T Verizon T-Mobile T-Mobile 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% AT&T Verizon T-Mobile 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09
($) 54.00 53.00 52.00 51.00 50.00 49.00 48.00 47.00 46.00 45.00 1Q 06 3Q 06 AT&T Verizon T-Mobile T-Mobile 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 ($) 16 T-Mobile 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 AT&T Verizon T-Mobile 0 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 (million$) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 AT&T Verizon T-Mobile T-Mobile 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% AT&T Verizon T-Mobile T-Mobile 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09
AT&T 1 2007-06-29 (2008-7-11) 2 (3) Rogers Wireless 1 2008-07-11 3 Softbank 3 2008-07-11 3 O2 1 2007-11-09 (2008-7-11) 2 (3) Vodafone 2 2010 2010 3 3 09.10 3 T-Mobile 1 2007-11-09 (2008-7-11) 2 (3) China Unicom 2 2009-10-01 3 China Mobile 1 Telestra 1 2008-07-11 3 Optus 2 2008-07-11 3 Bharti Airtel 1 2008-08-22 3 Vodafone 3 2008-08-22 3
50 45 40 35 30 25 ( ) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09
90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 1Q 06 3Q 06 AT&T Verizon Sprint 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000 AT&T Verizon Sprint 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 1Q 06 3Q 06 AT&T Verizon Sprint 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 60.0% NTT Dococmo KDDI Softbank () 60,000 NTT Dococmo KDDI Softbank 50.0% 50,000 40.0% 30.0% Softbank 40,000 30,000 Softbank 20.0% 20,000 10.0% 10,000 0.0% 0 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09
(million$) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1Q 06 2Q 06 AT&T Verizon Sprint 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% AT&T Verizon Sprint AT&T 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% AT&T Verizon Sprint 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 NTT Docomo KDDI Softbank Softbank 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0% 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 NTT Docomo KDDI Softbank Softbank 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09
(million$) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1Q 06 2Q 06 AT&T Verizon 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 (million$) 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% AT&T Verizon 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 ($) 63.00 61.00 59.00 57.00 55.00 53.00 51.00 49.00 47.00 45.00 AT&T Verizon Sprint ($) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 AT&T Verizon 2Q 09 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 NTT Dococmo KDDI Softbank Softbank 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 NTT Dococmo KDDI Softbank Softbank 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09
(million$) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1Q 06 2Q 06 AT&T Verizon 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 (million$) 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% AT&T Verizon 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3.00% AT&T Verizon Sprint 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09
iphone Android Palm Pre BlackBerry Palm Treo iphone 92% 1% 1% 3% 0% 2% Android 25% 58% 1% 7% 0% 9% Palm Pre 35% 3% 56% 3% 3% 1% BlackBerry 43% 0% 5% 49% 0% 3% Palm Treo 39% 0% 23% 16% 16% 7% 47% 3% 9% 18% 3% 19% iphone Android iphone Android 88 83 87 84 79 74 88 87 86 77 81 82 91 78 / 87 79 92 83 82 78 PC 83 76 86 81 71 71 / 79 83 61 52 76 79 83 81 / 74 71
ARPU() 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000 24 () 840,000 1,080,000 1,320,000 1,560,000 1 2 () 300,000 162,000 294,000 426,000 558,000 400,000 62,000 194,000 326,000 458,000 472,000-10,000 122,000 254,000 386,000 500,000-38,000 94,000 226,000 358,000 600,000-138,000-6,000 126,000 258,000 () 300,000 9.6% 13.6% 16.1% 17.9% 400,000 3.7% 9.0% 12.3% 14.7% 472,000-0.6% 5.6% 9.6% 12.4% 500,000-2.3% 4.4% 8.6% 11.5% 600,000-8.2% -0.3% 4.8% 8.3% () 1,080 45,000 50,000 60,000 () 1,555 2,203 3,499 () () 300,000-441 -516-235 400,000-1,521-1,956-2,035 472,000-2,298-2,993-3,331 500,000-2,601-3,396-3,835 600,000-3,681-4,836-5,635 2 () () 300,000 415 696 1,689 400,000-665 -744-111 472,000-1,443-1,781-1,407 500,000-1,745-2,184-1,911 600,000-2,825-3,624-3,711
마진 누적영업손익영향전망 해외사례및국내영향전망 결론
케이스 1 : SK 텔레콤 / SK 브로드밴드 / SK 텔링크 / 브로드밴드미디어동시합병시 SK 80,745,711 SK 18,751,160 23.2% 8,526,252 10.6% 38,742,407 48.0% SK 295,959,087 SK 149,781,239 50.6% 9,617,830 3.2% SK 1,040,000 SK 943,997 90.8% SK 1,479,795 SK 286,038 SK 180,000 SK 5,000 SK 275,037 SK : SKBB 0.0277778 SK : 1.5279826 SKBB 4,060,496 SK 146,691 4,207,187 SK SK 80,745,711 SK 18,751,160 23.2% 4,319,065 5.3% 39,009,569 48.3%
케이스 2 : SK 텔링크 / SK 브로드밴드합병시 SK 295,959,087 SK 149,781,239 50.6% SK 1,040,000 SK 943,997 90.8% SK () 5,000 SK () 275,037 () SK () 286,038 57.2 SK 57,207,670 SK SK 353,166,757 19.3% Dilution SK 201,840,219 57.20%
케이스 1 : SK 텔레콤 / SK 브로드밴드 / SK 텔링크 / 브로드밴드미디어동시합병시 SK 12,458,394 2,296,300 EBITDA 4,260,117 1,315,522 EPS 16,292 SK 2,071,818 13,141 EBITDA 445,461-52,358 SK 271,059 34,821 EBITDA 45,933 23,264 2008 58,497-74,471 EBITDA -28,061-102,537 14,859,768 2,269,791 EBITDA 4,723,450 1,180,277 EPS 14,617
케이스 2 : SK 텔링크 / SK 브로드밴드합병시 SK () 123,464 BPS 4,122 1.0 4,122 1.2 4,946 1.4 5,770 EBITDA 6.2 495,988 3,075,123 939,830 2,135,293 6,046 353,166,757
SK 텔링크재무제표 2006 2007 2008 2009.2Q () 195,089 235,127 271,059 144,682 OP 20,254 24,936 34,821 5,693 3,633 10,832 2,607 2,410 13,036 23,340 26,159 32,617 16,813 18,736 19,650 14,736 8,049 9,515 11,112 EBITDA 28,303 34,451 45,933 2006 2007 2008 2009.2Q [] 97,427 114,176 132,895 97,427 114,176 132,895 0 0 0 46,219 48,022 55,488 6,771 6,236 9,146 22,856 27,228 27,795 8,455 8,043 8,362 8,137 6,515 10,184 143,646 162,198 188,383 195,012 [] 50,401 54,711 62,917 218 636 879 50,619 55,347 63,796 63,186 [] 5,200 5,200 5,200 952 952 952 0 0 0-412 -375 649 87,287 101,073 117,786 93,027 106,851 124,587 131,826 143,646 162,198 188,383 195,012
브로드밴드미디어재무제표 2006 2007 2008 2009.2Q () 1,401 19,378 58,497 31,211 OP -19,365-93,093-74,471 327 947 590 556 11,807 28,657-19,594-103,953-102,537-19,595-103,953-102,537-38,355 3,076 25,719 46,410 EBITDA -16,289-67,374-28,061 2006 2007 2008 2009.2Q [] 15,711 9,585 36,202 15,711 9,583 35,234 2 968 75,815 200,245 203,724 3,000 3,000 3,000 58,560 169,623 168,863 11,771 18,406 19,555 2,483 9,216 12,306 91,525 209,830 239,926 216,355 [] 53,172 189,767 323,975 32,615 118,278 116,703 85,787 308,045 440,678 356,127 [] 26,000 26,000 26,000 0 0 0-111 -111-112 0 0 0-20,150-124,102-226,640 5,738-98,215-200,752-139,772 91,525 209,830 239,926 216,355
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 4.47 4.73 5.13 5.07 5.09 5.08 1.96 2.64 3.04 3.07 3.12 3.18 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 9,520 10,206 11,870 2,978 3,069 3,189 3,621 4,121 4,730 1,149 1,152 1,193 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08
2006 2007 2008 091 092 093 2,743 2,548 3,034 829 659 1,498 952 1,021 1,187 298 307 617 901 787 869 202 193 393 402 325 337 90 88 177 298 278 350 79 77 160 201 184 182 33 27 56 383 425 476 115 108 207 167 164 170 37 35 61 216 261 306 78 73 146 507 316 502 214 52 281 264 140 135 28 49 61 37 29 47 22 12 30 104 52 59 88-88 13 12 25 6 10 6 28 9 20 4 4 24-7 146 51-39 39 61 68 69 16 17 32 1,867 1,902 2,221 555 419 1,030 667 559 606 171 148 304 1,176 1,307 1,442 327 307 656 24 36 173 57-37 69-25 15 0 0 5-7 158 57-37 46 24 3 - - 0 17 876 646 812 274 241 468 352 506 323 206 186 340 10 231 6 3 25 5 362 737 329 209 211 344 90 165 71 33 25 54 272 572 258 176 186 291 272 572 258 176 186 291 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q 2009 2Q 11,362,173 9,342,552 8,883,738 8,518,930 9,241,636 9,462,830 9,602,329 (LG ) 12,992,000 13,346,000 13,617,000 13,640,206 13,871,000 8,993,000 9,609,000 9,898,000 8,516,000 9,026,000 9,083,000 9,185,000 3,967,000 5,607,000 6,346,000 7,571,000 7,910,000 8,230,000 1,959,982 2,174,459 3,006,790 3,426,124 3,459,744 3,542,330 4,853,000 3,969,000 3,913,000 4,034,000 5,250,000 5,326,000 5,386,000 6,193,000 6,465,000 6,754,000 6,540,000 7,328,000 7,530,000 7,151,000 23,205,000 25,377,000 28,885,000 33,329,000 39,760,000 40,749,000 41,480,000 2,608,843 3,059,114 3,576,157 4,270,436 4,943,284 5,036,770 5,138,947
SKT 50% SKT (2008) 513 780 2,346 2,927 4,450 2,225 11,675 19.1% 323 491 246 2,060 11.9% 258 392 196 1,278 15.3%
178,000 446 143,727 121,229 73.50% 80,745,711 579 325,730 227,500 166,000 SK() 6 23.2% 49.00% 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 SK KOSPI 08.11 09.4 09.9 (12) EPS PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROA ROE 2007 112,859 6.0 21,715 16,425 20,229 14.6 10.5 1.7 4.6 9.7 15.8 2008 116,747 3.4 20,599 12,777 15,736-22.2 12.8 1.7 4.9 7.0 11.5 2009E 121,478 4.1 22,814 13,833 17,129 8.9 10.4 1.3 4.2 7.1 12.4 2010E 124,584 2.6 22,963 13,155 16,290-4.9 10.9 1.2 3.7 6.3 10.9 2011E 126,810 1.8 23,154 13,407 16,602 1.9 10.7 1.1 3.5 6.0 10.4
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 40,941 39,905 51,488 68,204 76,022 112,859 116,747 121,478 124,584 126,810 5,756 4,342 9,702 25,130 31,931 0 0 0 0 0 8,131 4,644 6,567 6,732 6,864 112,859 116,747 121,478 124,584 126,810 16,203 15,765 16,337 16,841 17,255 91,144 96,148 98,664 101,621 103,656 187 139 193 199 204 21,715 20,599 22,814 22,963 23,154 9,917 13,936 17,736 18,350 18,801 8,513 10,153 6,997 4,270 4,374 140,490 146,270 149,907 149,945 149,964 773 1,072 1,529 1,777 1,667 59,506 56,681 63,748 67,546 71,281 111 4,660 2,296 395 383 45,944 46,982 48,696 48,080 47,616 2,668 416 515 504 494 31,749 29,416 25,907 22,363 18,818 4,960 4,004 2,657 1,593 1,829 3,291 13,191 11,556 11,956 12,250 7,067 15,691 11,352 9,575 9,531 181,430 186,175 201,396 218,149 225,987 2,159 2,564 2,985 2,941 2,868 24,845 34,125 32,479 42,509 43,498 121 1,467 2,885 838 813 0 0 0 0 0 2,494 2,585 2,253 1,600 1,600 0 1,547 1,315 1,315 1,315 2,294 9,074 3,229 4,195 4,250 2,996 5,794 1,590 1,990 2,390 23,161 15,061 18,459 17,658 17,996 21,849 26,784 29,574 39,204 39,794 0 0 0 0 0 42,210 44,760 52,768 51,455 50,066 23,161 15,061 18,459 17,658 17,996 22,812 28,825 36,380 35,180 33,980 6,737 2,284 4,626 4,503 4,589 2,938 8,258 8,085 7,685 7,285 16,425 12,777 13,833 13,155 13,407 16,460 7,678 8,303 8,590 8,801 0 0 0 0 0 67,056 78,885 85,246 93,964 93,564 0 0 0 0 0 446 446 446 446 446 16,425 12,777 13,833 13,155 13,407 29,394 29,571 30,320 30,320 30,320 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0-20,416-21,475-20,683-20,683-20,683 35.7 34.3 34.5 34.2 33.6 15,892 3,738 5,524 7,206 8,835 19.2 17.6 18.8 18.4 18.3 89,059 95,010 100,542 106,897 113,504 20.5 12.9 15.2 14.2 14.2 114,375 107,290 116,149 124,186 132,422 20.5 12.9 15.2 14.2 14.2 28,746 44,424 47,370 46,170 44,970 14.6 10.9 11.4 10.6 10.6 14,758 35,437 31,033 14,240 6,106 14.7 11.3 11.7 10.8 10.8 Key Financial Data 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 37,208 28,186 35,745 43,225 34,490 23,272 1,156 19,641 29,663 20,881 16,425 12,777 13,833 13,155 13,407 21,715 20,599 22,814 22,963 23,154 16,298 24,167 24,148 22,232 22,048 40,238 40,033 41,966 42,601 42,603 18,522 19,434 19,152 19,638 19,449 139,000 143,788 150,427 154,273 157,029 0 0 0 0 0 20,229 15,736 17,129 16,290 16,602-2,225 4,732 4,997 2,594 2,600 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 4,486-8,757-2,236 7,838-966 126,907 121,229 136,432 150,774 165,364 417 93-1,636-1,172-1,099 49,558 49,306 51,967 52,753 52,755-8 -22-53 -7-5 6.0 3.4 4.1 2.6 1.8 0 0 0 0 0-16.0-5.1 10.8 0.7 0.8 4,078-8,829-547 9,017 139 14.6-22.2 8.9-4.9 1.9-25,125-33,942-25,634-21,735-21,500-4.9-0.5 4.8 1.5 0.0-17,266-17,918-19,470-19,421-19,372 9.7 7.0 7.1 6.3 6.0-771 -621 1,704 3,544 3,545 15.8 11.5 12.4 10.9 10.4-7,089-15,379-5,711-4,881-4,831 20.9 22.4 20.2 22.2 25.0 0-24 -2,158-976 -842 3.8 4.5 5.3 5.3 5.3-8,738 4,341-4,750-6,062-6,189 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1-1,897 11,376 2,560-1,200-1,200 10.5 12.8 10.4 10.9 10.7-6,547-7,038-7,054-5,119-5,171 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1-5,813-6,825-6,765-6,800-6,800 4.6 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.5-294 3-256 257 181 58.6 73.5 73.4 75.7 70.7 3,345-1,415 5,360 15,428 6,801 25.1 41.4 40.8 37.2 34.0 2,411 5,756 4,342 9,702 25,130 0.9 0.1 2.3 1.3 1.2 5,756 4,342 9,702 25,130 31,931 10.1 8.0 7.6 7.8 8.1
( ) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 07.11 08.4 08.9 09.2 09.7 2008/02/01 Buy 290,000 2008/03/03 Buy 270,000 2008/07/25 Buy 255,000 2008/12/01 Buy 265,000 2009/01/19 Buy 265,000 2009/01/28 Buy 255,000 2009/04/14 Buy 250,000 2009/05/04 Buy 235,000 2009/10/30 Buy 215,000 2009/11/17 Buy 215,000
39,300 15,645 102,617 44,819 111.60% 261,111,808 420 1,056,038 42,000 31,400 9.2% 44.60% 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 KT KOSPI 08.11 09.4 09.9 (12) EPS PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROA ROE 2007 119,364 0.7 14,337 9,820 3,523-19.4 12.7 1.0 4.5 5.5 11.3 2008 117,848-1.3 11,134 4,498 1,639-53.5 26.4 1.0 4.9 2.5 5.1 2009E 158,551 34.5 14,707 10,899 4,116 151.1 9.5 0.9 3.8 5.0 11.2 2010E 185,802 17.2 18,241 11,097 4,191 1.8 9.4 0.9 3.1 4.4 10.1 2011E 185,819 0.0 18,320 11,149 4,210 0.5 9.3 0.8 3.0 4.3 9.6
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 33,104 37,781 74,340 80,513 93,150 119,364 117,848 158,551 185,802 185,819 9,212 12,928 26,020 31,151 44,320 0 0 0 0 0 2,104 874 0 0 0 119,364 117,848 158,551 185,802 185,819 16,365 16,874 32,063 31,234 30,965 105,027 106,714 143,844 167,561 167,498 1,221 1,675 4,222 4,141 4,111 14,337 11,134 14,707 18,241 18,320 3,226 5,073 12,035 13,988 13,754 4,156 8,553 8,531 4,784 5,189 146,068 149,068 178,717 174,908 173,234 1,177 1,036 1,586 1,345 1,739 34,586 35,179 12,854 13,664 15,794 81 854 3,830 725 725 104,486 104,287 141,536 139,616 138,359 644 725 1,736 1,190 1,202 4,397 3,970 11,176 8,729 6,397 2,254 5,937 1,379 1,524 1,524 2,598 5,632 13,150 12,900 12,684 5,746 14,086 9,491 8,797 9,216 179,172 186,849 253,056 255,421 266,384 3,098 3,294 4,415 4,653 5,074 29,913 25,859 52,161 48,392 53,318 201 6,962 2,248 774 774 7,699 6,441 10,884 10,652 10,588 360 734 627 403 407 0 0 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,087 3,097 2,201 2,966 2,961 4,380 4,100 11,099 8,099 13,326 12,747 5,600 13,747 14,227 14,293 17,835 15,317 28,179 27,642 27,404 0 0 0 0 0 60,659 72,672 94,383 94,284 94,038 12,747 5,600 13,747 14,227 14,293 45,893 58,159 78,410 78,410 78,410 2,928 1,102 2,848 3,130 3,144 266 281 962 962 962 9,820 4,498 10,899 11,097 11,149 14,501 14,232 15,011 14,913 14,666 0 0 0 0 0 90,573 98,530 146,544 142,677 147,355 0 0 0 0 0 15,610 15,610 15,645 15,645 15,645 9,820 4,498 10,899 11,097 11,149 14,408 14,406 14,587 14,587 14,587 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0-39,839-39,947-25,094-25,094-25,094 30.4 28.7 27.4 27.1 26.7-8 109-315 -315-315 12.0 9.4 9.3 9.8 9.9 98,429 98,141 101,689 107,921 114,205 10.7 4.8 8.7 7.7 7.7 88,599 88,319 106,512 112,745 119,028 10.7 4.8 8.7 7.7 7.7 50,538 62,540 92,470 89,470 94,698 8.2 3.8 6.9 6.0 6.0 39,223 48,738 66,450 58,320 50,378 8.5 4.1 7.1 6.2 6.2 Key Financial Data 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 30,043 23,945 34,530 41,169 42,460 9,212 115-46,629 16,896 18,082 9,820 4,498 10,899 11,097 11,149 14,337 11,134 14,707 18,241 18,320 25,367 28,921 28,494 32,514 31,711 36,297 33,824 43,497 50,353 49,643 20,348 21,000 26,644 29,820 29,145 42,829 42,938 59,873 70,164 70,170 1,612 1,690 2,147 2,293 2,178 3,523 1,639 4,116 4,191 4,210 3,407 6,231-297 401 388 2,000 1,100 2,000 2,000 2,000-5,144-9,475-4,863-2,442-400 44,498 44,819 41,901 45,225 48,525-1,078-1,196 825 199-361 13,024 12,324 16,426 19,015 18,746-322 -457 286 81 30 0.7-1.3 34.5 17.2 0.0 1,099-1,351-3,391-232 -64-18.4-22.3 32.1 24.0 0.4-4,843-6,472-2,583-2,490-4 -19.4-53.5 151.1 1.8 0.5-21,100-20,893-26,837-28,076-29,407-7.8-6.8 28.6 15.8-1.4-21,393-21,534-25,075-28,408-28,392 5.5 2.5 5.0 4.4 4.3-1,418-1,276-113 154 154 11.3 5.1 11.2 10.1 9.6 757-952 -323-23 -1,335 12.0 9.2 8.9 8.9 9.2 954 2,870-1,327 201 166 4.1 2.9 5.1 5.1 5.1-10,098 664 1,244-7,964 116 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6-3,718 5,797 7,154-3,000 5,227 12.7 26.4 9.5 9.4 9.3-6,125-4,812-7,543-4,865-4,865 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8-4,162-4,074-2,263-4,865-4,865 4.5 4.9 3.8 3.1 3.0-255 -321 1,632-99 -247 102.2 111.6 137.6 126.5 123.8-1,156 3,716 8,937 5,130 13,169 57.0 70.8 86.8 79.4 79.6 10,368 9,212 12,928 26,020 31,151 1.5 7.2 0.1 1.4 1.4 9,212 12,928 26,020 31,151 44,320 4.6 3.4 3.3 3.9 3.6
( ) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2008/03/26 Hold 54,000 2008/04/28 Hold 52,000 2008/07/28 Hold 51,000 2008/10/15 Hold 48,000 2008/11/03 Hold 46,000 2008/12/01 Hold 40,000 2009/01/19 Hold 40,000 2009/01/21 Hold 49,000 2009/01/28 Hold 48,000 2009/02/23 Hold 45,000 2009/06/02 Buy 45,000 2009/08/10 Buy 48,000 07.11 08.4 08.9 09.2 09.7
8,310 13,864 23,042 7,039 96.20% 277,278,430 123 1,451,510 10,800 7,500 ()LG 2 37.4% 39.50% 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 LG KOSPI 08.11 09.4 09.9 (12) EPS PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROA ROE 2007 45,855 16.3 3,239 2,753 993 15.7 10.1 1.6 5.0 7.9 16.9 2008 47,980 4.6 3,790 2,836 1,023 3.0 8.7 1.3 4.1 7.6 15.2 2009E 50,157 4.5 4,229 3,316 1,196 16.9 6.9 1.0 3.4 7.8 15.8 2010E 52,144 4.0 4,519 3,479 1,255 4.9 6.6 0.9 3.2 7.4 14.7 2011E 53,794 3.2 4,834 3,725 1,343 7.1 6.2 0.8 2.8 7.6 14.2
2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Sales 2,954,095 3,249,113 3,432,305 3,606,422 3,754,368 3,883,185 2,954,095 3,249,113 3,432,305 3,606,422 7,242,214 7,750,802 OP 416,532 323,945 379,049 422,913 451,887 483,390 416,532 323,945 379,049 422,913 879,116 939,753 RP 83,700 320,069 362,883 401,164 434,882 471,543 83,700 320,069 362,883 401,164 789,991 863,964 NP 237,986 275,289 283,559 331,592 347,906 372,519 237,986 275,289 283,559 331,592 631,582 685,736 EBITDA 810,475 677,825 778,833 857,593 944,227 965,233 810,475 677,825 778,833 857,593 1,800,834 1,862,107 EPS 858 993 1,023 1,196 1,255 1,343 858 993 1,023 1,196 1,227 1,332
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 12,025 11,843 19,452 17,633 20,076 45,855 47,980 50,157 52,144 53,794 1,082 501 7,314 5,579 7,583 0 0 0 0 0 562 1,013 779 837 891 45,855 47,980 50,157 52,144 53,794 7,674 7,010 7,498 7,457 7,661 42,616 44,189 45,928 47,625 48,960 916 1,013 1,418 1,249 1,366 3,239 3,790 4,229 4,519 4,834 1,768 2,250 2,383 2,449 2,509 742 1,100 968 1,050 910 24,262 26,742 27,030 30,391 29,918 396 359 542 698 552 542 315 286 255 227 0 1 273 21 18 18,970 21,857 22,474 25,752 25,203 0 0 16 14 13 30 153 171 171 171 346 741 137 316 326 4,720 4,417 4,099 4,213 4,317 781 1,262 1,185 1,220 1,028 36,287 38,585 46,482 48,024 49,994 531 405 636 808 731 12,304 16,767 16,704 15,613 14,967 18 637 300 75 68 2,426 2,498 3,173 2,915 3,119 0 30 28 25 22 18 1,966 3,580 2,580 1,580 232 190 221 311 207 2,530 4,665 3,869 3,869 3,869 3,201 3,629 4,012 4,349 4,715 7,329 7,637 6,081 6,248 6,399 0 0 0 0 0 6,251 2,147 7,395 7,402 7,558 3,201 3,629 4,012 4,349 4,715 5,343 1,387 6,087 6,087 6,087 448 793 696 870 990 50 628 1,070 1,070 1,220 2,753 2,836 3,316 3,479 3,725 859 132 238 245 251 0 0 0 0 0 18,555 18,914 24,099 23,015 22,525 0 0 0 0 0 13,864 13,864 13,864 13,864 13,864 2,753 2,836 3,316 3,479 3,725 116 116 116 116 116 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 14.8 16.2 17.1 18.1 17.9 57-8 -57-78 -96 7.1 7.9 8.4 8.7 9.0 3,695 5,699 8,460 11,108 13,585 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.8 17,732 19,671 22,383 25,010 27,469 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.8 7,941 8,646 14,607 13,607 12,757 6.0 5.9 6.6 6.7 6.9 6,297 7,132 6,515 7,192 4,283 6.1 6.0 6.7 6.7 7.0 Key Financial Data 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 8,276 7,579 6,187 8,570 8,621 1,893-40 1,372 280 4,241 2,753 2,836 3,316 3,479 3,725 3,239 3,790 4,229 4,519 4,834 4,142 4,661 4,631 5,341 5,231 6,778 7,788 8,576 9,442 9,652 3,528 3,987 4,297 4,923 4,818 16,538 17,304 18,089 18,806 19,401 11 11 50 0 0 993 1,023 1,196 1,255 1,343 603 663 284 417 413 300 200 300 450 450 1,382 83-1,760-250 -336 6,384 7,039 8,011 8,958 9,845 672 350-405 -261-513 2,445 2,809 3,093 3,405 3,481-372 -102-406 169-117 16.3 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.2 559 72 675-258 204-22.2 17.0 11.6 6.9 7.0 523-236 -1,624 100 91 15.7 3.0 16.9 4.9 7.1-5,786-7,451-4,696-8,385-4,440-16.4 14.9 10.1 10.1 2.2-6,213-6,942-4,969-8,251-4,314 7.9 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.6-6 -15-68 0 0 16.9 15.2 15.8 14.7 14.2-37 -36 18 20 17 12.1 11.9 12.7 11.9 12.0 469-458 323-154 -143 3.0 2.0 3.6 5.4 5.4-1,651-709 5,321-1,920-2,177 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4-1,652-194 5,962-1,000-850 10.1 8.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 0-832 -571-852 -1,266 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0-832 -555-832 -1,248 5.0 4.1 3.4 3.2 2.8 1 317-70 -67-61 104.6 96.2 107.7 92.0 82.0 839-581 6,812-1,735 2,004 44.8 44.0 65.3 54.4 46.4 244 1,082 501 7,314 5,579 0.3 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 1,082 501 7,314 5,579 7,583 6.1 9.4 6.6 5.6 6.6
( ) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2008/01/31 Buy 12,000 2008/09/17 Buy 13,000 2008/12/01 Buy 14,000 2009/01/30 Buy 12,500 2009/06/18 Buy 12,500 2009/08/03 Buy 12,000 07.11 08.4 08.9 09.2 09.7
4,610 14,798 13,644 5,394 121.90% 295,959,087 77 1,513,754 6,583 4,550 SK () 2 50.6% 3.50% 190 140 90 40 SK KOSDAQ 08.11 09.4 09.9 (12) EPS PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROA ROE 2007 18,683 8.4 809 72 30 283.0 1.5 4.7 0.3 0.5 2008 18,614-0.4-227 -988-414 -18.9 1.5 6.7-3.4-6.8 2009E 18,539-0.4-838 -1,605-614 -7.5 1.1 7.9-5.1-11.4 2010E 20,718 11.8 131-524 -177-26.1 1.1 6.0-1.7-3.8 2011E 22,876 10.4 782 174 59 78.2 1.1 5.2 0.5 1.3
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 4,152 6,831 5,533 4,976 6,435 18,683 18,614 18,539 20,718 22,876 697 2,729 1,499 322 1,118 0 0 0 0 0 348 1,250 1,072 1,250 1,611 18,683 18,614 18,539 20,718 22,876 2,679 2,301 2,488 2,805 3,051 17,873 18,841 19,377 20,587 22,094 25 145 66 124 110 809-227 -838 131 782 275 371 367 430 495 379 1,983 1,002 378 431 22,562 24,480 25,603 26,242 26,791 78 130 154 146 135 417 561 655 773 888 12 39 468 0 0 19,980 20,475 21,564 21,720 21,774 13 47 12 2 2 1,531 1,385 1,203 1,194 1,184 276 1,767 368 230 295 633 2,059 2,181 2,554 2,945 1,116 2,745 1,769 1,033 1,039 26,714 31,311 31,136 31,218 33,226 705 701 957 905 943 3,840 6,169 5,765 6,290 8,037 61 1,629 603 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 16 32 1 0 0 1,684 2,509 2,509 3,709 265 399 177 128 95 1,213 1,035 105 105 105 72-988 -1,605-524 174 2,627 3,451 3,151 3,676 4,224 0 0 0 0 0 7,743 11,030 11,255 11,333 11,415 72-988 -1,605-524 174 6,190 10,109 10,258 10,258 10,258 0 0 0 0 0 323 532 542 542 542 72-988 -1,605-524 174 1,230 390 456 534 615 0 0 0 0 0 11,583 17,199 17,020 17,623 19,452 0 0 0 0 0 11,750 11,798 14,798 14,798 14,798 72-988 -1,605-524 174 3,191 3,286 3,286 3,286 3,286 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 185-16 -9-9 -9 31.0 22.5 17.5 21.5 22.4-67 149 42 46 49 4.3-1.2-4.5 0.6 3.4 72-1,105-4,001-4,524-4,350 0.4-5.3-8.7-2.5 0.8 15,131 14,112 14,116 13,595 13,773 0.4-5.3-8.7-2.5 0.8 7,726 13,359 13,413 13,413 14,613 0.4-5.3-8.7-2.5 0.8 6,680 9,381 10,842 11,841 11,884-0.2-5.4-8.7-2.6 0.7 Key Financial Data 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3,729 3,395 1,338 3,869 4,741 721-1,765-2,209-228 675 72-988 -1,605-524 174 809-227 -838 131 782 5,563 5,336 4,333 4,445 4,468 5,796 4,181 3,248 4,455 5,116 4,986 4,408 4,085 4,323 4,334 7,848 7,792 7,091 7,000 7,729 0 0 0 0 0 30-414 -614-177 59 576 929 248 121 134 0 0 0 0 0-1,906-953 -1,390-52 99 5,710 5,322 4,363 4,190 4,254-473 220-363 -456-398 2,435 1,750 1,242 1,505 1,729-403 -588-528 -57 14 8.4-0.4-0.4 11.8 10.4 0 0 0 0 0 162.4 495.0-1,030-586 -499 462 482-3,326-5,172-5,433-5,128-5,230 8.2-27.9-22.3 37.2 14.8-3,128-3,639-4,116-4,460-4,369 0.3-3.4-5.1-1.7 0.5-391 -121-7 9 10 0.5-6.8-11.4-3.8 1.3-47 -489-1,412-120 -116 3.8-1.0-3.5 0.5 3.2 240-924 102-557 -755 - - - - - -946 3,809 2,866 81 1,285 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6-1,106 3,759-162 0 1,200 283.0-18.9-7.5-26.1 78.2 160 51 3,000 3 3 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 4.7 6.7 7.9 6.0 5.2 0 0 28 78 82 76.6 121.9-543 2,032-1,229-1,177 796 51.1 94.7 1,240 697 2,729 1,499 322 3.7 11.5 5.2 3.7 3.5 697 2,729 1,499 322 1,118 1.1-0.3-0.9 0.1 0.8
( ) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2008/04/29 Buy 12,500 2008/08/06 Buy 10,000 2008/12/01 Buy 9,000 2009/02/09 Buy 6,000 2009/02/23 Hold 6,000 07.11 08.4 08.9 09.2 09.7