HI Research Center Data, Model & Insight 213/9/17 [ 산업브리프 ] Chemical Industry <Chemical Analyzer Issue> 화학업종투자판단 : 업황 Rebound 진행중 석유화학 / 정유이희철 (2122-9199) chemlee@hi-ib.com 상사 / 화학스몰캡이명현 (2122-926) Mr.lee@hi-ib.com 메크로지표회복속에화학업황에도점차훈풍이불고있다미국, 유럽등의경기지표개선속에특히석유화학경기에영향이큰중국지표도금년하반기들어서비교적뚜렷하게회복되고있는양상이다. 메크로지표뿐만아니라석유화학수요나재고상황도제품별시차는있지만대체로상반기대비개선되고있는것으로보인다. 합성수지가먼저개선되고있다. LG화학톱픽 합성수지중에서 PO(PE/PP) 마진은중국등의구조적인수요증가세, 중동산수입비중둔화, 신증설가동지연등으로당초예상보다높게유지되고있다. LG화학, 한화케미칼, 대한유화등의 3Q 실적이개선될전망이다. LG화학은석유화학부문이전방산업수요호전등으로개선될전망이고배터리도애플향매출증대가예상되어 3Q 실적은전년대비호전될전망이다. 배터리관련수주모멘텀이이어질것이라는점에서목표주가를상향조정하는바이다. 합성고무와화섬원료체인도반등예상그동안큰폭약세를보이던 BD( 부타디엔 ) 가격이최근에 2Q 평균수준까지반등했다. 하지만전분기대비합성고무및 BD 가격급락으로금호석유의금년 3Q 실적은당초예상치를하회할전망이다. 롯데케미칼실적도합성수지강세에도불구하고 BD 가격하락과 SM 정기보수등의영향으로당초기대치를다소하회할것으로보인다. 다만 4Q에는 BD 가격반등으로실질제품마진이개선되면서금호석유및롯데케미칼의실적이다소개선될것으로추정된다. 롯데케미칼은 9월이후성수기에화섬원료 (MEG,PX) 마진개선여부도중요할것으로보인다. 정제마진악화감안해정유 3Q 추정치하향. 4Q 진입시반등예상석유정제마진은휘발유성수기종료, 아세안등의수요부진, 중국 / 인도등의수출물량확대등으로 3Q에는전분기대비더욱부진한양상이다. 이에따라당초예상보다실적이부진할것으로추정된다. 다만기말월평균유가상승에따른재고평가익이예상되고화학, 윤활유등기타부문의기여도는높아질전망이다. 한편향후가동률조정예상, 난방유성수기효과등으로 4Q에진입하면서정제마진은점진적인반등이예상된다. 건자재, 차소재, 스판덱스등은수요호전. 태양광은일부회복시그널 KCC, 효성, LG하우시스등은주력제품수익성개선효과로주가강세시현후다소조정양상이다. 다만구조적으로사업경쟁력이강화되고있다는점은여전히긍정적이다. 효성은세무조사우려등이당분간주가에영향을미칠전망이다. OCI나한화케미칼등의태양광부문은 3Q보다 4Q에보다개선될것으로보인다. 동자료는 금융투자회사의영업및업무의관한규정 에관한규정중제 2 장조사분석자료의작성과공표에관한규정을준수하고있음을알려드립니다.
< 그림 1> 화학업종기관및외국인순매수추이 < 그림 2> 정유업종기관및외국인순매수추이 화학업종기관순매수 ( 십억원 ) 화학업종외국인순매수 ( 십억원 ) 정유기관순매수 ( 십억원 ) 정유외국인순매수 ( 십억원 ) 4 2 3 16 12 2 8 4 1-4 -8-1 12-7 12-1 13-1 13-4 13-7 13-1 -12 12-7 12-1 13-1 13-4 13-7 13-1 < 그림 3> 롯데케미칼주가와 BD 가격추이 < 그림 4> 금호석유화학주가와천연고무가격추이 롯데케미칼주가 (' 원, L) 부타디엔가격 ($,R) 금호석유주가 (' 원, L) 천연고무가격 ($,R) 45 5 25 6 35 4 2 5 25 3 2 15 1 4 3 15 1 5 2 5 9 1 11 12 13 14 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 < 그림 5> SK 이노베이션주가와석유정제마진추이 < 그림 6> 카프로주가와카프로락탐마진추이 SK 이노베이션주가 (' 원, L) 복합정제마진 ($,R) 카프로주가 (' 원, L) 카프로락탐 Spread($,R) 25 12 4 25 21 9 3 2 17 13 6 2 15 1 9 3 1 5 5 9 1 11 12 13 14 9 1 11 12 13 14 자료 : Datastream, 하이투자증권 2
< 표1> 화학업종연간추정실적및투자의견 종목명 FY 매출액 증감률 영업이익 세전이익 순이익 EPS ROE PER PBR EV/ 투자의견 (TP) ( 억원 ) (%) ( 억원 ) ( 억원 ) ( 억원 ) ( 원 ) (%) ( 배 ) ( 배 ) EBITDA SK 이노베이션 211.12 683,712-29,596 43,86 31,758 34,346 25.9 4.2 1.6 4.1 Buy 212.12 733,34 7.3 16,911 16,818 11,482 12,417 7.9 13.8 1.6 8.7 (19,) 213.12E 712,579-2.8 2,942 18,628 13,692 14,61 8.5 1.3.82 6.5 214.12E 728,139 2.2 26,459 26,769 19,675 2,995 11. 7.1.75 4.6 S-Oil 211.12 319,139-16,975 15,837 11,91 1,579 25.1 9.6 2.28 5.5 Hold 212.12 347,233 8.8 7,818 7,19 5,852 5,18 11. 2.7 2.26 12.2 (9,) 213.12E 39,715-1.8 9,42 8,64 5,968 5,118 1.9 15.6 1.68 9.1 214.12E 311,63.6 1,275 1,871 8,45 6,899 13.9 11.6 1.54 8.5 GS 211.12 85,187-9,321 8,929 8,11 8,719 14.5 6.6.95 5.1 Buy 212.12 98,378 15.5 6,843 6,738 4,94 5,217 8. 13.8 1.7 13.6 (7,) 213.12E 99,52.7 7,442 6,651 5,426 5,73 8.3 1.1.81 9.1 214.12E 11,365 11.4 9,648 8,828 6,763 7,142 9.6 8.1.75 7.2 LG 화학 211.12 226,756 16.5 28,188 27,966 21,697 32,739 24.8 11. 2.47 6. Buy 212.12 232,63 2.6 19,13 18,85 14,945 2,223 14.8 16.3 2.29 8.7 (38,) 213.12E 237,533 2.1 2,143 2,15 15,879 21,487 14.2 14.5 1.96 7.6 214.12E 259,749 9.4 24,73 24,988 19,442 26,39 15.5 11.8 1.72 6.2 롯데케미칼 211.12 157, - 14,682 15,264 11,326 33,43 19.7 9.7 1.75 5.1 Buy 212.12 159,28 1.3 3,717 3,869 3,145 9,177 5.5 26.8 1.39 1.6 (225,) 213.12E 169,121 6.3 5,14 4,967 4,1 11,963 6.6 15.8 1.1 7.5 214.12E 173,643 2.7 8,842 8,553 6,351 18,529 9.5 1.2.93 5.2 금호석유화학 211.12 64,574-8,39 7,584 5,438 17,847 44. 11.1 3.97 6.2 Buy 212.12 58,837-8.9 2,238 1,337 1,296 3,869 8.4 31.1 2.84 15.3 (115,) 213.12E 55,681-5.4 2,611 1,749 1,262 3,767 8. 26.5 2.7 11.4 214.12E 61,861 11.1 4,38 4,532 3,27 9,762 18.7 1.2 1.77 7.7 한화케미칼 211.12 79,427-3,259 2,811 2,891 2,44 8.4 12..99 1.1 Hold 212.12 69,622-12.3 53-582 296 29.7 87.7.65 18.5 (23,) 213.12E 8,45 15.5 1,613 881 648 458 1.6 44.3.7 14.1 214.12E 84,69 5.3 3,92 2,644 1,947 1,377 4.7 14.7.68 1.2 OCI 211.12 42,759-11,179 1,433 8,647 36,259 33.8 6.9 2.22 4.2 Hold 212.12 32,185-24.7 1,548 188-684 -2,866-2.1. 1.24 7.7 (195,) 213.12E 3,16-6.7 324-364 4,43 18,46 12.9 9.8 1.18 1. 214.12E 33,88 1.2 2,469 2,16 1,456 6,15 3.9 29.5 1.13 7. KCC 211.12 33,79-1,228 4,776 3,27 31,88 5.6 9.2.5 8. Buy 212.12 32,462-3.7 1,99 6,267 4,446 42,265 9. 7..63 9.8 (48,) 213.12E 32,936 1.5 2,664 3,931 3,31 28,816 6. 15..88 11.2 214.12E 34,646 5.2 3,45 3,193 2,462 23,45 4.7 18.5.85 1.6 LG 하우시스 211.12 14,633-1,682 1,58 1,36 3,67 13.8 1.6 1.31 8.5 Buy 212.12 24,511.2 566 524 29 2,898 4. 27.3 1.1 8.1 (145,) 213.12E 26,495 8.1 1,38 1,162 917 9,167 12. 13.7 1.57 7.3 214.12E 27,137 2.4 1,76 1,739 1,322 13,219 15.3 9.5 1.36 5.8 효성 211.12 113,421-2.2 2,917 42-938 -1,281-3.2.96 13.9 Buy 212.12 126,118 11.2 1,893 1,514 1,224 3,486 4.2 21.1.88 8.5 (95,) 213.12E 129,882 3. 6,244 3,326 2,412 6,868 8. 1.4.8 5.4 214.12E 135,38 4.2 7,653 5,913 4,317 12,294 12.9 5.8.71 4.6 3
삼성정밀화학 211.12 13,336 18. 746 878 734 2,845 6. 24.6 1.47 12.1 Hold 212.12 14,312 7.3 556 861 733 2,84 6.6 21.5 1.36 13.7 (6,) 213.12E 15,73 5.3 21 467 395 1,532 3.4 31.9 1.7 13.8 214.12E 18,691 24. 864 878 734 2,846 6.1 17.2 1.3 8.5 < 표2> 화학업종분기추정실적 종목명 FY 매출액 영업이익 세전이익 순이익 EPS 증감률 (%,YoY) ( 억원 ) ( 억원 ) ( 억원 ) ( 억원 ) ( 원 ) ( 매출액 ) ( 영업익 ) (EPS) SK 이노베이션 213.1Q 181,82 6,959 4,18 2,577 2,75-3.9-5.7-55.3 213.2Q 168,526 3,95 3,328 2,528 2,698-1.7 흑전 흑전 213.3QE 18,47 4,577 5,173 3,82 4,57-2.2-48.2-17.2 213.4QE 182,52 5,457 6,19 4,498 4,8 6.4 159.4 72.5 S-Oil 213.1Q 8,137 3,268 1,932 1,475 1,265-11.3-13.8-53.5 213.2Q 69,747 999-296 -224-192 -2.7 흑전 적지 213.3QE 79,332 2,251 2,432 1,843 1,581-6.7-56.7-59.6 213.4QE 8,5 2,884 3,996 2,874 2,465-4. 72.2 흑전 GS 213.1Q 24,847 1,795 1,818 1,439 1,519 4.5-17. -19.9 213.2Q 22,61 793 723 491 519-8.2 45.7 1. 213.3QE 26,679 2,876 2,678 2,236 2,361 3.9 14.5 4.5 213.4QE 25,465 1,979 1,432 1,166 1,231 2.3 21.8 14.7 LG 화학 213.1Q 57,26 4,89 4,147 3,392 4,589 -.6-8.5-5.8 213.2Q 59,172 5,15 5,97 3,983 5,39-1.3.5 6.2 213.3QE 63,169 6,253 6,27 4,861 6,577 8.3 4.2 6.1 213.4QE 57,985 4,786 4,7 3,623 4,92 2.1 31.5 25.3 롯데케미칼 213.1Q 41,712 1,174 1,174 1,144 3,338 8.3-42.2-47.9 213.2Q 41,612 696 477 254 742 5.4 흑전 흑전 213.3QE 42,125 1,437 1,393 1,94 3,192 2. -25.8-31.4 213.4QE 43,671 1,833 1,923 1,612 4,74 1. 694.1 흑전 금호석유화학 213.1Q 14,17 779 479 343 1,24-12.7-36.1-63.8 213.2Q 13,834 756 291 262 781-12.7 189. 2.5 213.3QE 13,483 49 321 229 683-5.8-9.6-27.6 213.4QE 14,194 668 658 448 1,339 14. 118.2 흑전 한화케미칼 213.1Q 17,797-85 88 252 178 5. 적전 -58.5 213.2Q 19,85 317-35 -342-242 15.7-29.8 적지 213.3QE 21,413 75 652 495 35 2.9 74.8 2.2 213.4QE 21,391 677 445 497 351 19.9 흑전 흑전 OCI 213.1Q 7,84-237 -27-423 -1,775-12.4 적전 적전 213.2Q 7,157 177-293 -1,947-8,165-17.4-8.5 적전 213.3QE 7,569 55-87 -6-251 -.1-81.4 적전 213.4QE 7,485 328 286 6,488 27,24 6.4 흑전 흑전 KCC 213.1Q 7,151 453 1,789 1,386 13,175-7. -14. -76.6 213.2Q 8,66 845 815 591 5,618.2 12.9 1,66.6 213.3QE 8,58 84 729 564 5,364 7.7 56.1 135.2 213.4QE 8,546 562 598 487 4,629 4.6 181.6 흑전 LG 하우시스 213.1Q 5,89 24 171 136 1,358 5.6 486.3 351.9 213.2Q 6,989 463 444 358 3,577 8.8 231.7 7. 4
213.3QE 7,37 378 348 267 2,669 1.4 55.2 56.1 213.4QE 6,579 226 21 157 1,565 7.3 59.2 7,469.8 효성 213.1Q 29,133 96 177-122 -346-5.1 174.3-134.2 213.2Q 33,577 2,75 595 669 1,94 5.9 16.7 2,829.2 213.3QE 34,199 1,591 1,589 1,168 3,325 2.7 131.6 48.8 213.4QE 32,973 1,619 965 683 1,945 8.4 2,586.9 428.5 삼성정밀화학 213.1Q 3,318-126 -123-92 -355-7.2 적전 적전 213.2Q 3,485 86 16 131 58-4.1-57.4-39.1 213.3QE 3,967 14 161 132 512 7.4-25.7-22.2 213.4QE 4,33 146 269 224 866 26.4 239.6 113.2 5
SK 이노베이션 의견제시일자투자의견목표가격의견제시일자투자의견목표가격의견제시일자투자의견목표가격 4, 2, 213-6-19 Buy 19, 212-5-3 Buy 22, 211-1-17 Buy 23, 213-4-15 Buy 21, 212-5-11 Buy 23, 211-1-5 Buy 215, 213-4-4 Buy 22, 212-4-2 Buy 235, 212-12-13 Buy 23, 212-2-2 Buy 245, 212-9-11 Buy 215, 211-12-2 Buy 24, 212-6-25 Buy 2, 211-11-9 Buy 26, 212-6-12 Buy 21, 211-1-28 Buy 245, S-Oil 의견제시일자투자의견목표가격의견제시일자투자의견목표가격의견제시일자투자의견목표가격 2, 1, 213-6-19 Hold 9, 212-9-19 Buy 125, 212-4-2 Buy 15, 213-5-1 Hold 15, 212-7-3 Buy 12, 212-2-21 Buy 165, 213-4-4 Buy 11, 212-6-25 Hold 12, 212-2-2 Buy 16, 213-2-12 Buy 115, 212-6-12 Buy 125, 211-12-2 Buy 155, 213-1-16 Buy 12, 212-5-3 Buy 13, 211-1-28 Buy 165, 212-11-14 Buy 125, 212-5-11 Buy 135, 211-1-5 Buy 16, 212-9-27 Buy 135, 212-4-16 Buy 145, GS 1 5 213-7-23 Buy 7, 212-11-14 Buy 95, 212-5-11 Buy 9, 213-6-19 Hold 65, 212-11-6 Buy 92, 212-4-16 Buy 92, 213-5-1 Buy 7, 212-8-16 Buy 85, 212-4-2 Buy 9, 213-4-15 Hold 7, 212-8-2 Buy 8, 212-2-2 Buy 82, 213-4-4 Buy 85, 212-6-25 Hold 7, 211-12-2 Hold 75, 213-3-15 Buy 88, 212-6-12 Buy 78, 211-11-3 Buy 85, 213-2-28 Buy 92,5 212-5-3 Buy 85, 211-1-28 Buy 9, LG 화학 의견제시일자투자의견목표가격의견제시일자투자의견목표가격의견제시일자투자의견목표가격 1 5 213-9-17 Buy 38, 212-7-19 Buy 4, 212-2-2 Buy 5, 213-7-23 Buy 35, 212-6-12 Buy 385, 211-12-1 Buy 46, 213-5-31 Buy 335, 212-5-11 Buy 395, 213-4-4 Buy 32, 212-4-23 Buy 4, 213-3-15 Buy 35, 212-4-16 Buy 475, 213-2-28 Buy 385, 212-4-2 Buy 49, 213-2-12 Buy 395, 212-2-21 Buy 52, 롯데케미칼 1 5 213-8-19 Buy 225, 213-1-16 Buy 32, 212-7-25 Buy 32, 213-7-29 Buy 197, 213-1-3 Buy 3, 212-6-25 Buy 335, 213-7-23 Buy 187, 212-12-6 Buy 27, 212-6-12 Buy 345, 213-6-19 Hold 17, 212-11-26 Hold 235, 212-5-11 Buy 37, 213-4-15 Hold 21, 212-11-19 Buy 25, 212-4-23 Buy 4, 213-4-4 Hold 22, 212-11-14 Buy 27, 212-4-9 Buy 45, 213-3-14 Buy 28, 212-1-24 Buy 31, 212-4-2 Buy 475, 금호석유화학 4 2 213-9-4 Buy 115, 212-12-6 Buy 16, 212-1-6 Buy 24, 213-8-19 Hold 115, 212-11-19 Buy 15, 211-12-2 Buy 25, 213-6-19 Hold 113, 212-9-19 Buy 16, 211-12-1 Buy 26, 213-4-15 Hold 12, 212-8-27 Hold 145, 211-1-14 Buy 265, 213-3-15 Buy 13, 212-4-23 Buy 16, 213-2-28 Buy 15, 212-4-2 Buy 19, 213-1-3 Buy 17, 212-2-21 Buy 225, 6
한화케미칼 5 213-9-17 Hold 23, 212-11-19 Hold 2, 212-4-2 Hold 3, 213-7-23 Hold 22, 212-11-6 Hold 23, 212-2-29 Hold 32, 213-4-15 Hold 21, 212-1-18 Hold 25, 212-2-21 Buy 36,5 213-4-4 Hold 22,5 212-9-19 Hold 27,5 212-2-2 Buy 37,5 213-3-15 Hold 25, 212-6-12 Hold 26,5 212-1-6 Hold 34, 213-1-16 Hold 2, 212-5-11 Hold 27,5 211-12-2 Buy 35, 212-11-26 Hold 19, 212-4-23 Hold 28,5 211-12-1 Buy 37,5 OCI 4 2 213-9-17 Hold 195, 213-4-4 Hold 18, 212-6-12 Hold 24, 213-8-19 Hold 18, 213-1-16 Hold 2, 212-5-3 Hold 27, 213-7-23 Hold 17, 212-11-26 Hold 17, 212-4-16 Hold 29, 213-6-19 Hold 14, 212-1-18 Hold 18, 212-4-2 Hold 315, 213-5-1 Hold 15, 212-9-11 Hold 22, 212-2-21 Hold 35, 213-4-29 Hold 16, 212-7-25 Hold 24, 212-2-2 Hold 34, 213-4-15 Hold 17, 212-6-25 Hold 275, 211-1-28 Hold 28, KCC 1 5 213-9-2 Buy 48, 212-7-25 Hold 36, 211-9-26 Hold 325, 213-8-19 Buy 45, 212-5-3 Hold 385, 213-5-1 Buy 39, 212-5-11 Buy 4, 213-4-15 Hold 35, 212-2-21 Buy 425, 213-3-15 Hold 38, 212-1-6 Hold 36, 213-2-12 Hold 35, 211-1-28 Hold 33, 212-1-9 Buy 38, 211-1-5 Hold 315, LG 하우시스 2 1 213-8-19 Buy 145, 213-7-23 Buy 14, 213-5-29 Buy 135, 213-5-1 Buy 12, 213-4-26 Buy 11, 213-4-1 Buy 15, 삼성정밀화학 1 5 213-6-19 Hold 6, 212-5-11 Buy 8, 213-4-29 Buy 7, 212-4-2 Hold 7, 213-4-15 Buy 75, 211-12-6 Buy 8, 213-2-12 Buy 8, 213-1-16 Buy 85, 212-11-6 Buy 9, 212-1-18 Buy 85, 당보고서공표일기준으로해당기업과관련하여, 회사는해당종목을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다. 금융투자분석사와그배우자는해당기업의주식을보유하고있지않습니다. 당보고서는기관투자가및제 3 자에게 E-mail 등을통하여사전에배포된사실이없습니다. 회사는 6 개월간해당기업의유가증권발행과관련주관사로참여하지않았습니다. 당보고서에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인합니다. ( 작성자 : 이희철, 이명현 ) 본분석자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위한참고자료이며, 따라서, 본자료에의한투자자의투자결과에대해어떠한목적의증빙자료로도사용될수없으며, 어떠한경우에도작성자및당사의허가없이전재, 복사또는대여될수없습니다. 무단전재등으로인한분쟁발생시법적책임이있음을주지하시기바랍니다. 1. 종목추천투자등급 ( 추천일기준종가대비 3 등급 ) 종목투자의견은향후 6 개월간추천일종가대비해당종목의예상목표수익율을의미함. -Buy( 매수 ): 추천일종가대비 +15% 이상 -Hold( 보유 ): 추천일종가대비 +15% 미만, -15% 미만 -Sell( 매도 ): 추천일종가대비 -15% 이상 2. 산업추천투자등급 ( 시가총액기준산업별시장비중대비보유비중의변화를추천하는것임 ) - Overweight( 비중확대 ), - Neutral ( 중립 ), - Underweight ( 비중축소 ) 7