1. News Summary (3 page) 212 년 7 월 11 일 News WTI comment 노르웨이파업종료로유가하락 Conclusion Headline MEGlobal, 8 월 MEG CP $1,4/t 으로전월대비 $3/t 상향 Polyester 시장회복기대감지속되는상황임 News 1. - - News 2. - - News 3. - - News 4. - - News 5. - - 2. Prices Summary (4~6 page) Daily Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Weekly Update Unit Price 1W 1M 3M 12M Refinery % % % % % Petrochemical % % % % WTI $/bbl 83.9 (2.3) (4.2) 1.8 (18.3) (11.8) Ethylene 7/9 $/t 1,3 9.7 1.3 (22.1) (16.5) Dubai $/bbl 96.4 (.4) 1.2 (2.3) (17.4) (12.6) Propylene 7/9 $/t 1,215 3.8 3.4 (14.7) (4.) Gasoline $/bbl 19.4.5 3.8 (.6) (17.7) (14.3) Butadiene 7/9 $/t 2,325 4.5 25.7 (33.1) (4.8) Diesel $/bbl 114.2.1 1.9.8 (13.2) (11.6) Benzene 7/9 $/t 1,135 6.6 11.8 (4.6) 3.2 Complex margin $/bbl 8.5.4 1. 2.2.5 (.7) Toluene 7/9 $/t 1,98 6. 4. (13.1) (2.7) 1M lagging $/bbl 6.2 (2.1) (1.4) 9.7 5.7 (1.2) Xylene 7/9 $/t 1,15 5.2 7.3 (12.5) (6.) Petrochemical % % % % % PVC 7/9 $/t 885 2.9 (5.3) (16.9) (19.9) Naphtha $/t 811 (1.1) 2.4 8.3 (23.) (17.7) ABS 7/9 $/t 1,92 2.4 4.9 (1.3) (9.4) HDPE $/t 1,292 (.1) 1. 1.8 (9.4) (5.7) AN 7/9 $/t 1,545 (4.) (14.9) (35.5) (38.6) MEG $/t 884. (.7) 3.9 (7.5) (26.7) PO 7/9 $/t 1,72 1.5 1.4 (8.) (18.1) PP $/t 1,353 (.1) 1. 3.4 (7.8) (8.9) BPA 7/9 $/t 1,56 3..6 (8.) (22.6) PX $/t 1,322.8 3.6 1.6 (14.1) (4.7) Caustic 7/9 $/t 475.5 (.5) 11.8 1.5 PTA $/t 991..8 8.8 (14.6) (15.1) 2-EH 7/9 $/t 1,53.7 (4.4) (4.4) (16.2) Commodity % % % % % Caprolactam 7/9 $/t 2,27 1.8 (2.6) (17.5) (33.5) Natural Gas $/mmbtu 2.74 (5.1) (5.6) 19.7 15.3 (42.8) Solar % % % % Natural rubber $/t 2,91 1. 1.4 4.3 (2.1) (32.8) Polysilicon 7/4 $/kg 22. (4.3) (8.2) (14.6) (58.9) Cotton C/lbs 7.7. (2.6) 2.7 (19.) (23.9) Module 7/4 $/W.78 (3.6) (5.4) (11.5) (37.1) * 참고 : 정제마진의변동률은 % 가아닌 $/bbl 임 3. Global Peers Summary (7 page) Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Petrochemical % % % % % Refinery % % % % % Dow Chem USD 3.6 (2.) (3.6) (4.8) (4.1) (12.9) Petrochina CNY 9. 1.1 (1.8) (1.6) (7.6) (17.6) Eastman USD 48.8 (1.1) (4.) 2.3 (4.1) (4.7) Sinopec CNY 5.8.7 (6.9) (9.5) (18.5) (28.) BASF EUR 55.2 (.8) (2.2) (1.1) (12.1) (17.2) Formosa Pet. TWD 83..1 1.5 5.9 (6.4) (16.5) SABIC SAR 87.8 (.8) (3.8) (3.8) (14.6) (16.) Reliance INR 739.7 1.1.5 1.4 1.3 (13.3) Yansab SAR 42.4 (.7) (2.5) (4.3) (16.9) (15.6) ExxonMobil USD 83.1 (.6) (3.7) 2.8.5 1.5 Industries Qatar QAR 131.4 (.1).1 (1.2) (6.1) (5.9) Solar Mitsubishi Ch. JPY 364. (1.1) 2.8 1.6 (11.7) (38.5) GCL HKD 1.6 1.2 (1.2).6 (24.8) (6.7) Formosa Pla. TWD 77.9.9 (3.2) 4.8 (8.4) (24.7) Wacker EUR 54.9 (.1) (2.) 1.3 (1.9) (62.1) NanYa Pla. TWD 54.6 (2.7) (1.6) 6.2 (1.) (31.5) Trina Solar USD 5.9 (2.2) (11.3) (7.1) (12.6) (7.1) Petronas MYR 6.6 (.2) 1.4.9 (2.4) (7.7) First Solar USD 14.2 (2.5) (9.5) 1.8 (37.) (88.8) 4. Coverage Summary 7/1 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M 투자의견 TP % P/E P/B KOSPI 1,829 (.4) (2.1) (.3) (8.3).2 (16.1) * 추정치는 212 년말기준임 KOSPI 화학 4,179 (1.5) (1.8) 5.1 (7.7) (5.) (32.7) *SKC/ 국도화학은별도기준임 LG 화학 3 (2.) (1.5) 11.5 (15.4) (5.6) (4.9) 매수 41, 36.2 11.22 2.1 호남석유화학 24 (1.6) (3.8) 6.2 (26.4) (2.5) (44.3) 적극매수 41, 7.1 1.77 1.28 한화케미칼 21,3 (2.3) (5.8) 1.1 (14.1) (13.9) (58.6) 매수 27, 26.8 19.31.76 금호석유화학 126, (1.2) (2.7) 16.1 (1.) (21.5) (48.1) 매수 17, 34.9 11.56 2.53 OCI 216,5 (5.7) (7.1) 12.5 3.1 (2.3) (51.4) 매수 31, 43.2 16.27 1.51 SKC 41,5 (1.3) (4.5) (3.2) (1.4) 2.6 (35.9) 매수 6, 44.6 9.18 1.27 국도화학 44,7 (1.8) (.3) 9.7 (1.2) (13.) (4.7) 적극매수 9, 11.3 7.5.78 SK 이노베이션 14,5 (1.1) (5.1) 4.9 (13.3) (9.6) (34.5) 매수 21, 49.5 8.32.88 S-Oil 94,5 (.2) (.4) 4. (12.5) (13.7) (38.2) 매수 13, 37.6 1.78 2.46 GS 52, (1.3) (4.6) (.6) (19.4). (41.8) 매수 75, 43.1 8.2.78 작성자 ( 손지우 ) 는본조사분석자료에게재된내용들이본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이신의성실하게작성되었음을확인합니다. 본보고서에언급된종목의경우당사조사분석담당자는본인의담당종목을보유하고있지않습니다. 본보고서는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공된이없습니다. 당사는본보고서의발간시점에해당종목을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다.
Key Chart KOSPI/KOSPI 화학 WTI/Dubai (p) 7, KOSPI( 우 ) KOSPI 화학 ( 좌 ) (p) 2, ($/bbl) 13 WTI Dubai 6, 2,2 12 11 5, 2, 1 4, 1, 9 3, 1, 8 7 2, 11/3 11/5 11/7 11/1 11/12 12/2 12/5 12/7 6 1/7 1/11 11/3 11/7 11/11 12/3 Complex & 1M lagging margin ($/bbl) 1M lagging margin 복합정제마진 3 25 2 15 1 5 (5) (1) (15) 1/7 1/11 11/3 11/7 11/11 12/3 Naphtha/Ethylene/Propylene prices Polysilicon & Module prices ($/kg) Polysilicon( 좌 ) Module( 우 ) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Butadiene price & 1M lagging naphtha spread ($/W) 2. 1.5 1..5 1, Naphtha Ethylene Propylene 5, 1M lagging spread( 우 ) Butadiene( 좌 ) 4, 1, 4, 3, 1,2 3, 2, 2, HDPE price & 1M lagging naphtha spread MEG price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1,5 1M lagging spread( 우 ) HDPE( 좌 ) 1M lagging spread( 우 ) MEG( 좌 ) 5 1,2 1,3 1,2 2 1,1 3 2 (2) PVC price & 1M lagging naphtha spread PX price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1,3 1M lagging spread( 우 ) PVC( 좌 ) 1, 1M lagging spread( 우 ) PX( 좌 ) 1,2 3 1, 1,1 2 1 1,2 9 2 (1) 자료 : Bloomberg, Cischem, Petronet, Platts, Pvinsights, SK 증권 참고 : 상기데이터는일괄적으로과거 2 년치적용
News Comment Headline ( 출처 : Platts) WTI Comment ( 출처 : 연합뉴스 ) MEGlobal, 8 월 MEG CP $1,4/t 으로전월대비 $3/t 상향노르웨이파업종료로유가하락 Polyester 시장회복기대감지속되는상황임상승 요인 1) 상향의원인은 " 아시아 MEG 시장의회복기조반영 " 2) 트레이더, "polyester sector is now in a good cycle." 하락 3주째계속된노르웨이원유노동자파업, 정부개입으로종료 3) "polyester inventory for winter clothes is very low in china." 요인 중국 6월원유수입 529만b/d, 5월대비 12% 감소 4) "polyester demand will become strong from august." 5) Polyester 시장회복기대감지속되는상황임 Issue 1 Issue 2 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5) Issue 3 Issue 4 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5) Issue 5 Issue 6 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5)
Refining Price Data Daily Price 7/1 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 21avg. 211avg. 212acc. Crude Oil WTI 83.9 85.9 87.6 82.5 12.7 99. 95.1 99.2 79.4 95.1 97.6 Change, % (2.3) (4.2) 1.8 (18.3) (15.2) (11.8) (15.4) 5.7 (11.8) (14.) Dubai 96.4 96.8 95.3 98.7 116.8 11.7 11.3 14.9 78.1 15.8 11.5 Change, % (.4) 1.2 (2.3) (17.4) (12.9) (12.6) (8.1) 23.4 (8.9) (12.8) Crude Oil Gasoline( 휘발유 ) 19.4 18.8 15.3 11. 132.9 123.2 127.7 116.9 88.4 12.5 124.6 Product Change, %.5 3.8 (.6) (17.7) (11.2) (14.3) (6.5) 23.7 (9.3) (12.2) Kerosene( 등유 ) 114.3 114.5 113. 113.5 131.5 128.4 129.5 121.7 9.2 125.3 126.4 Change, % (.2) 1.1.7 (13.1) (11.) (11.8) (6.1) 26.7 (8.8) (9.6) Diesel( 경유 ) 114.2 114.1 112. 113.3 131.5 129.7 129.1 122.8 89.6 124.3 126.5 Change, %.1 1.9.8 (13.2) (12.) (11.6) (7.) 27.5 (8.1) (9.7) Bunker-C 92.4 92.8 92.5 95. 111.5 112.6 12.2 13.6 72.4 99.7 17.1 Change, % (.5) (.1) (2.7) (17.2) (17.9) (9.6) (1.8) 27.6 (7.3) (13.7) Naphtha 88.5 89.4 86.1 84. 114. 14.2 14.7 1. 79.3 13.1 14.5 Change, % (1.1) 2.7 5.3 (22.4) (15.1) (15.5) (11.5) 11.5 (14.2) (15.3) Dubai Gasoline( 휘발유 ) 12.9 12. 1. 11.4 16.2 12.5 17.4 12. 1.3 14.7 14.1 Spread Change.9 2.9 1.6 (3.2).4 (4.4).9 2.6 (1.7) (1.1) Kerosene( 등유 ) 17.9 17.8 17.7 14.9 14.7 17.7 19.2 16.8 12.1 19.5 15.9 Change.1.1 3. 3.2.1 (1.3) 1.1 5.8 (1.7) 1.9 Diesel( 경유 ) 17.8 17.3 16.7 14.6 14.8 19. 18.8 17.9 11.4 18.5 16. Change.4 1. 3.1 3. (1.3) (1.) (.2) 6.3 (.7) 1.8 Bunker-C (4.) (3.9) (2.8) (3.7) (5.2) 1.9 (8.1) (1.3) (5.7) (6.1) (3.4) Change (.1) (1.2) (.3) 1.2 (5.9) 4.1 (2.7) 1.7 2.1 (.6) Naphtha (7.9) (7.3) (9.2) (14.7) (2.8) (6.5) (5.6) (4.9) 1.2 (2.7) (6.) Change (.6) 1.2 6.7 (5.2) (1.4) (2.3) (3.) (9.2) (5.3) (1.9) Refining Simple( 단순 ) 3. 2.8 2.9 1.5 1.5 5.7 1.7 4..7 2.4 2.5 Margin Change.2.1 1.5 1.5 (2.7) 1.2 (1.) 2.3.6.5 Complex( 복합 ) 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.3 7.9 1.1 9.2 9. 5.6 8.9 8.1 Change.4 1. 2.2.5 (1.6) (.7) (.5) 2.9 (.4).4 Complex(lagging) 6.2 8.4 7.6 (3.5).5 14.2 7.5 6.3 6.7 9.8 6.4 Change (2.1) (1.4) 9.7 5.7 (8.) (1.2) (.1) (.5) (3.5) (.2) 자료 : Petronet, SK 증권 참고 1) Crude Oil 가격은현물 (spot) 기준으로선물 (future) 가격과다를수있음 참고 2) Gasoline 은 95RON, 경유는 L/P.5%, Bunker-C 는 38cst/4.% 기준임
Petrochemical Price Data Daily Price 7/1 7/9 7/6 7/5 7/4 7/3 7/2 6/29 6/28 6/27 Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 81.5 819.8 822. 816.3 796.3 791.3 772.3 749.8 744.8 731.5 Ethylene CFR SE Asia 976. 978. 979. 979. 979. 959. 934. 934. 934. 934. Propylene FOB Korea 1,288. 1,29. 1,29. 1,281. 1,265. 1,26. 1,25. 1,25. 1,25. 1,28. HDPE CFR FE Asia 1,292. 1,293. 1,295. 1,295. 1,295. 1,279. 1,277. 1,272. 1,267. 1,267. LDPE CFR FE Asia 1,237. 1,238. 1,24. 1,24. 1,24. 1,212. 1,21. 1,25. 1,2. 1,2. LLDPE CFR FE Asia 1,257. 1,258. 1,26. 1,26. 1,26. 1,211. 1,29. 1,24. 1,199. 1,199. MEG CFR China 884. 884. 891. 881. 894. 89. 871. 855. 85. 838. PP CFR FE Asia 1,353. 1,355. 1,349. 1,35. 1,35. 1,34. 1,329. 1,325. 1,325. 1,32. PX CFR China 1,321.5 1,31.5 1,314.5 1,39.5 1,35.5 1,275.5 1,25.5 1,218. 1,233. 1,23. PTA CFR China 991. 991. 1,1. 999. 999. 983. 971. 951. 941. 929. Benzene FOB Korea 1,144. 1,123. 1,144. 1,134. 1,13.5 1,76.5 1,71.5 1,54.5 1,57.5 1,63.5 Toluene FOB Korea 1,67. 1,69. 1,75. 1,69.5 1,67.5 1,46.5 1,31.5 1,14.5 1,11. 1,1. Xylene FOB Korea 1,12. 1,11. 1,15. 1,96. 1,86. 1,66. 1,43. 1,16. 1,26. 1,24. SM FOB Korea 1,35. 1,358.5 1,36. 1,359.5 1,382.5 1,356.5 1,347.5 1,38. 1,286.5 1,287.5 Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 21avg. 211avg. 212acc. Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 822. 749. 745. 1,55.5 1,82. 984.5 912.5 722.4 937.2 946.7 Change, % 9.7 1.3 (22.1) (24.) (16.5) (9.9) 13.8 (12.3) (13.2) Ethylene CFR SE Asia 1,3. 1,1. 952.5 1,45. 1,36. 1,14. 1,1. 1,79.7 1,186.7 1,23.3 Change, % 2. 8.1 (29.) (24.3) (9.6) (6.4) (4.6) (13.2) (14.4) Propylene CFR SE Asia 1,215. 1,17. 1,175. 1,425. 1,325. 1,265. 1,21. 1,135.5 1,385.9 1,323.3 Change, % 3.8 3.4 (14.7) (8.3) (4.).4 7. (12.3) (8.2) Butadiene CFR SE Asia 2,325. 2,225. 1,85. 3,475. 3,375. 3,925. 2,575. 1,897.7 2,921.7 2,869.6 Change, % 4.5 25.7 (33.1) (31.1) (4.8) (9.7) 22.5 (2.4) (19.) Benzene CFR SE Asia 1,135. 1,65. 1,15. 1,19. 1,25. 1,1. 1,75. 915.1 1,11.4 1,161.8 Change, % 6.6 11.8 (4.6) (5.8) 3.2 5.6 24. 3.1 (2.3) Toluene CFR SE Asia 1,97.5 1,35. 1,55. 1,262.5 1,257.5 1,127.5 1,145. 859.1 1,14.1 1,185.7 Change, % 6. 4. (13.1) (12.7) (2.7) (4.1) 27.8 (.6) (7.4) Xylene CFR SE Asia 1,15. 1,5. 1,3. 1,262.5 1,27. 1,175. 1,215. 863.7 1,153.3 1,197.5 Change, % 5.2 7.3 (12.5) (13.) (6.) (9.1) 27.9 (4.2) (7.7) Spread Ethylene -Naphtha 28. 261. 27.5 394.5 278. 155.5 187.5 357.3 249.6 256.6 Change, % (2.3).2 (47.3) (25.2) 33.8 1.9 (41.8) (16.7) (18.9) Propylene -Naphtha 393. 421. 43. 369.5 243. 28.5 297.5 413.1 448.8 376.6 Change, % (6.7) (8.6) 6.4 61.7 4.1 32.1 (4.9) (12.4) 4.4 Butadiene -Naphtha 1,53. 1,476. 1,15. 2,419.5 2,293. 2,94.5 1,662.5 1,175.3 1,984.5 1,922.9 Change, % 1.8 36. (37.9) (34.5) (48.9) (9.6) 27.9 (24.3) (21.8) Benzene -Naphtha 313. 316. 27. 134.5 123. 115.5 162.5 192.7 164.2 215.1 Change, % (.9) 15.9 132.7 154.5 171. 92.6 62.4 9.6 45.5 Toluene -Naphtha 275.5 286. 31. 27. 175.5 143. 232.5 136.7 166.9 239. Change, % (3.7) (11.1) 33.1 57. 92.7 18.5 11.5 65.1 15.3 Xylene -Naphtha 283. 31. 285. 27. 188. 19.5 32.5 141.3 216.2 25.8 Change, % (6.) (.7) 36.7 5.5 48.6 (6.4) 1.3 3.9 12.8 자료 : Cischem, Platts, Bloomberg, SK증권 참고 : Spread는 Polymer와 Naphtha의가격차이임
Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 21avg. 211avg. 212acc. Spot Price HDPE CFR SE Asia 1,29. 1,27. 1,28. 1,455. 1,415. 1,34. 1,29. 1,221.5 1,352.8 1,361.6 Change, % 1.6.8 (11.3) (8.8) (3.7). 5.6 (4.6) (5.3) MEG CFR SE Asia 892.5 855. 852.5 95. 1,62.5 1,27.5 1,87.5 882.4 1,181.9 1,1.2 Change, % 4.4 4.7 (6.1) (16.) (26.1) (17.9) 1.1 (24.5) (1.9) PVC CFR SE Asia 885. 86. 935. 1,65. 1,25. 1,15. 965. 994.3 1,68.9 995.6 Change, % 2.9 (5.3) (16.9) (13.7) (19.9) (8.3) (11.) (17.2) (11.1) PP CFR SE Asia 1,355. 1,33. 1,325. 1,5. 1,45. 1,495. 1,35. 1,33.3 1,556.4 1,42.1 Change, % 1.9 2.3 (9.7) (6.6) (9.4) 3.8 4. (12.9) (3.4) 2-EH CFR Korea 1,53. 1,52. 1,. 1,. 1,62. 1,825. 1,45. 1,699. 1,797.1 1,589.8 Change, %.7 (4.4) (4.4) (5.6) (16.2) 8.9 (9.9) (14.9) (3.8) ABS CFR SE Asia 1,92. 1,875. 1,83. 2,14. 2,185. 2,12. 1,95. 1,932.4 2,146.6 2,29.1 Change, % 2.4 4.9 (1.3) (12.1) (9.4).8 (.6) (1.6) (5.4) AN CFR SE Asia 1,545. 1,61. 1,815. 2,395. 2,33. 2,515. 1,83. 2,192.6 2,341.6 2,25.5 Change, % (4.) (14.9) (35.5) (33.7) (38.6) (15.6) (29.5) (34.) (23.7) PO CFR China 1,72. 1,695. 1,557.5 1,87. 2,125. 2,1. 1,97. 1,894.3 2,244.4 1,936.2 Change, % 1.5 1.4 (8.) (19.1) (18.1) (12.7) (9.2) (23.4) (11.2) Caustic FOB NEA 475. 472.5 477.5 425. 435. 43. 465. 213.7 391.1 448.8 Change, %.5 (.5) 11.8 9.2 1.5 2.2 122.3 21.5 5.8 PX CFR SE Asia 1,322.5 1,232.5 1,22. 1,567.5 1,667.5 1,397.5 1,492.5 1,218.7 1,416.1 1,421.5 Change, % 7.3 8.4 (15.6) (2.7) (5.4) (11.4) 8.5 (6.6) (7.) BPA CFR Korea 1,56. 1,515. 1,55. 1,695. 1,76. 2,15. 1,535. 1,948.1 2,98.5 1,662.2 Change, % 3..6 (8.) (11.4) (22.6) 1.6 (19.9) (25.7) (6.2) Caprolactam CFR SE Asia 2,27. 2,23. 2,33. 2,75. 2,94. 3,415. 2,575. 2,595.2 3,331.5 2,669.6 Change, % 1.8 (2.6) (17.5) (22.8) (33.5) (11.8) (12.5) (31.9) (15.) PTA CFR SE Asia 1,7.5 962.5 92. 1,162.5 1,25. 1,165. 1,122.5 957.5 1,268.4 1,12.1 Change, % 4.7 9.5 (13.3) (16.4) (13.5) (1.2) 5.2 (2.6) (1.1) Spread HDPE 468. 521. 535. 399.5 333. 355.5 377.5 499.2 415.6 414.9 Change, % (1.2) (12.5) 17.1 4.5 31.6 24. (6.2) 12.6 12.8 MEG 7.5 16. 17.5 (15.5) (19.5) 223. 175. 16. 244.7 54.4 Change, % (33.5) (34.4) (166.8) (461.5) (68.4) (59.7) (55.9) (71.2) 29.5 PVC 63. 111. 19. 9.5 (57.) 12.5 52.5 271.9 131.7 48.9 Change, % (43.2) (66.8) 563.2 (21.5) (47.7) 2. (76.8) (52.2) 28.8 PP 533. 581. 58. 444.5 368. 51.5 392.5 58.9 619.3 455.4 Change, % (8.3) (8.1) 19.9 44.8 4.4 35.8 (8.2) (13.9) 17. 2-EH 78. 771. 855. 544.5 538. 84.5 492.5 976.6 859.9 643.1 Change, % (8.2) (17.2) 3. 31.6 (15.8) 43.8 (27.5) (17.7) 1.1 ABS 1,98. 1,126. 1,85. 1,84.5 1,13. 1,135.5 992.5 1,21. 1,29.5 1,82.4 Change, % (2.5) 1.2 1.2 (.5) (3.3) 1.6 (9.3) (9.2) 1.4 AN 723. 861. 1,7. 1,339.5 1,248. 1,53.5 917.5 1,47.2 1,44.4 1,78.8 Change, % (16.) (32.4) (46.) (42.1) (52.8) (21.2) (5.8) (48.5) (33.) PO 898. 946. 812.5 814.5 1,43. 1,115.5 1,57.5 1,171.9 1,37.3 989.4 Change, % (5.1) 1.5 1.3 (13.9) (19.5) (15.1) (23.4) (31.3) (9.2) Caustic Change, % PX 5.5 483.5 475. 512. 585.5 413. 58. 496.3 478.9 474.8 Change, % 3.5 5.4 (2.2) (14.5) 21.2 (13.7).8 4.5 5.4 Caprolactam 738. 766. 85. 639.5 678. 1,3.5 622.5 1,225.7 1,161.3 715.5 Change, % (3.7) (8.3) 15.4 8.8 (28.4) 18.6 (39.8) (36.5) 3.1 BPA 1,448. 1,481. 1,585. 1,694.5 1,858. 2,43.5 1,662.5 1,872.8 2,394.3 1,722.9 Change, % (2.2) (8.6) (14.5) (22.1) (4.4) (12.9) (22.7) (39.5) (16.) PTA 185.5 213.5 175. 17. 123. 18.5 21. 235.1 331.3 173.4 Change, % (13.1) 6. 73.4 5.8 2.8 (11.7) (21.1) (44.) 7. 자료 : Cischem, Platts, SK증권참고 : Spread는 Naphtha spread로일괄적용
Global peers Currency 7/1 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD MKT CAP PER PBR EV/EBITDA (mil USD) 11 12E 11 12E 11 12E Petrochemical Dow Chemical USD 31 (2.) (3.6) (4.8) (4.1) (6.1) (12.9) 6.3 36,531 11.6 12.4 1.5 1.6 7.1 7.2 Du Pont USD 48.4 (3.9) (3.7) (7.4) (.9) (13.) 4.1 44,65 12.2 11.1 4. 4. 8.5 7.6 Eastman USD 49 (1.1) (4.) 2.3 (4.1) 6. (4.7) 25. 6,738 1.5 9.6 3.6 2.5 5.9 4.9 BASF EUR 55 (.8) (2.2) (1.1) (12.1) (5.) (17.2) 2.4 62,31 8.9 9.7 2.1 1.9 5.3 5.1 Akzo Nobel EUR 39 1.4 2.4 2.6 (8.6) 2. (9.6) 4. 11,336 13.6 12.3 1. 1. 7. 6.7 Arkema EUR 59 (.5) 7.4 6.3 (11.2) 1.3 (14.8) 7.5 4,53 6.8 8. 1.5 1.4 4.4 4.6 Lanxess EUR 39 1.4 2.4 2.6 (8.6) 2. (9.6) 4. 5,476 8.3 7.5 2.1 1.8 5.3 4.9 Sumitomo Chemical JPY 233 (1.7) (5.3). (28.3) (17.7) (42.6) (17.1) 4,858 17.2 361.2.7.8 7. 8.9 Mitsubishi Chemical JPY 364 (1.1) 2.8 1.6 (11.7) (12.1) (38.5) (14.2) 6,96 6.5 19.2.7.7 5.4 6.9 Shin-Etsu Chemical JPY 4,325. (1.4) 7.1 (4.) 17.7 (.1) 14.1 23,54 16.6 18.2 1.2 1.3 6.6 6.5 Asahi Kasei JPY 428.2 (.9) 3.9 (12.1) (8.5) (22.2) (7.8) 7,561 1. 11..9.9 3.3 3.7 JSR JPY 1,348.7 (3.2) 2. (13.3) (5.9) (16.1) (5.1) 4,345 12.6 12.2 1.2 1.2 4.7 4.6 Nitto Denko JPY 3,48 (1.4) (.7) 1.1 4.7 25.1 (15.9) 26.4 7,616 1. 18.3 1.4 1.3 3.6 4.7 SABIC SAR 88 (.8) (3.8) (3.8) (14.6) (7.1) (16.) (8.4) 7,196 8.6 9.2 1.9 1.7 5.8 6. Yansab SAR 42 (.7) (2.5) (4.3) (16.9) (1.9) (15.6) (2.8) 6,36 7.4 7.9 2.3 1.8 7.2 7.6 Formosa Plastics TWD 78.9 (3.2) 4.8 (8.4) (6.5) (24.7) (3.6) 15,922 12.6 18.1 1.8 1.9 12.2 16.8 Formosa Fiber TWD 75 (.5) (5.7) 1.1 (11.7) (9.6) (27.2) (6.6) 14,175 11.8 17.7 1.6 1.7 11.6 15.7 Nan Ya Plastics TWD 55 (2.7) (1.6) 6.2 (1.) (13.3) (31.5) (9.2) 14,316 15.6 22.5 1.5 1.6 15.2 19.9 Sinopec Shanghai CNY 6 1.1 5.3 3.4 4.9 (.6) (31.) 3.7 5,42 23. 41.1 2.3 2.4 11.3 22.1 Reliance INR 74 1.1.5 1.4 1.3.4 (13.3) 6.7 43,529 11.6 11.6 1.5 1.4 6.7 7.2 Industries Qatar QAR 131 (.1).1 (1.2) (6.1) (.8) (5.9) (1.2) 19,848 8.8 8.5 2.8 2.4 8.5 8. PTT Chemical THB 57 1.8..9 (13.9) (7.7) - (6.1) 8,133 8. 8.1 1.1 1.2 6.4 6.6 Petronas MYR 7 (.2) 1.4.9 (2.4) 1.6 (7.7) 5.6 16,453 14.6 13.2 2.6 2.4 7.9 7.3 LG화학 KRW 3 (2.) (1.5) 11.5 (15.4) (9.9) (39.7) (5.2) 17,495 9.3 8.4 2.1 1.7 5.3 5.2 호남석유화학 KRW 24 (1.6) (3.8) 6.2 (26.4) (26.3) (42.8) (19.1) 6,734 6.7 9.4 1.4 1.2 5.1 5.8 한화케미칼 KRW 21,3 (2.3) (5.8) 1.1 (14.1) (2.4) (58.1) (13.4) 2,621 5.4 7.3.8.7 6. 5. 금호석유화학 KRW 126, (1.2) (2.7) 16.1 (1.) (16.) (48.3) (24.8) 3,367 5.9 1.4 - - - - SKC KRW 41,5 (1.3) (4.5) (3.2) (1.4) (5.4) (36.2) 8.9 1,318 8. 9.8 1.3 1.2 7.9 7.4 국도화학 KRW 44,7 (1.8) (.3) 9.7 (1.2) (9.1) (39.2) (1.4) 228 7.8 6.2.9.8 7. 4.9 Averege (.7) (1.4) 3.7 (9.2) (5.8) (25.7) (1.9) 1.7 24.8 1.7 1.6 7.1 7.9 Refinery Exxon Mobil USD 83 (.6) (3.7) 2.8.5 (1.9) 1.5 (1.9) 388,636 9.9 1.4 2.5 2.3 4.5 4.5 BP GBP 429 1.1 (1.) 4.8 (3.5) (1.6) (6.7) (6.9) 126,555 5.9 6.5 1.1 1. 3.6 3.7 Shell USD 2,18 1.2 (.4) 7.1 1.8 (4.3) (2.9) (8.1) 218,137 8.1 7.6 1.3 1.1 3.9 3.9 Chevron USD 14 (.6) (3.3) 3. 2.9 (1.) (.5) (2.4) 24,921 7.7 8.2 1.7 1.5 3.3 3.4 Total EUR 36.1 (3.) 3.9 (3.2) (7.9) (8.6) (9.) 14,187 6.9 6.8 1.2 1.1 3.3 3.1 Valero USD 24 (.7) (5.5) 11.1 (.6) 12.9 (6.6) 12.3 13,7 5.9 6.2.8.7 3.5 3.8 Sinopec CNY 6.7 (6.9) (9.5) (18.5) (23.8) (28.) (18.7) 78,5 6.6 7. 1.1.9 4.4 3.9 Petrochina CNY 9 1.1 (1.8) (1.6) (7.6) (1.9) (17.6) (8.) 253,691 11.5 11.5 1.6 1.5 6. 5.6 CNOOC CNY 17.8 (1.6) 1.9 1.7 11.4 (3.1) 17.5 1,227 17.8 15.9 2.6 2.3 9.8 9. Formosa Petrochem TWD 83.1 1.5 5.9 (6.4) (1.8) (16.5) (11.5) 26,41 33.9 36.9 3.4 3.5 16.7 19. SK이노베이션 KRW 14,5 (1.1) (5.1) 4.9 (13.3) (11.1) (33.6) (1.1) 11,394 4.9 7.6 1. - 3.4 - S-Oil KRW 94,5 (.2) (.4) 4. (12.5) (16.4) (35.5) (5.5) 9,331 8.3 8.2 2. 1.8 6.6 6.6 GS KRW 52, (1.3) (4.6) (.6) (19.4) (2.1) (4.6) 3.4 4,27 5.3 6.3.8.7 4.4 3.9 Averege. (2.7) 2.9 (6.) (5.9) (15.3) (3.1) 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 5.6 5.9 PV WACKER EUR 55 (.1) (2.) 1.3 (1.9) (29.6) (62.1) (11.6) 3,59 6.8 16.1 1. 1.1 2.7 3.4 GCL-Poly HKD 2 1.2 (1.2).6 (24.8) (34.1) (6.7) (24.4) 3,273 4.9 15.2 1.2 1.2 5.5 9.9 REC NOK 2 2.5 (9.) (8.) (32.4) (44.8) (75.7) (33.8) 33 - -.2.3 2. 7.8 MEMC USD 2 (5.) (12.) 35.1 (39.3) (53.8) (7.6) (42.4) 524 9.5 -.2.7 8.1 8.7 Suntech USD 2 (5.4) (12.6) 7.4 (36.3) (44.9) (77.2) (21.3) 313 - -.2.5 26.6 - JA Solar USD 1 (3.8) (11.5) 5.8 (27.5) (5.5) (78.6) (25.4) 17 - -.2.2 4.2 6.2 Trina Solar USD 6 (2.2) (11.3) (7.1) (12.6) (42.8) (7.1) (11.7) 48 196.7 -.4.4 6.7 12.3 LDK Solar USD 2 (5.4) (11.6) (2.2) (47.8) (66.7) (73.3) (58.) 255 - -.2.4 13.7 13.7 Yingli USD 3 (4.3) (9.1) 1.9 (22.9) (46.) (64.3) (29.2) 424 16.6 -.3.5 8.3 17.3 First Solar USD 14 (2.5) (9.5) 1.8 (37.) (65.9) (88.8) (58.) 1,23 2.4 3.5.3.3 1.7 2.7 한화솔라원 USD 1 (3.3) (7.) 38.4 (9.2) (4.5) (79.2) 21.1 1 - -.1.2 76. - OCI KRW 216,5 (5.7) (7.1) 12.5 3.1 (15.1) (49.2) (1.4) 4,529 5.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 3.5 5.3 Averege (2.8) (8.1) 7.6 (23.1) (39.8) (68.6) (2.4) 34.6 11.3.5.6 65.8 8.7 * Bloomberg 기준 / valuation multiple 또한 Bloomberg consensus 기준임 115 19