www.samsungfn.com Downgrade to: Matket Underperformer ( 4 1 5 1 ) 1999 12,511 4,310 4,213 3,100 1,346 228.9 8.1 5,584 5.1 1.8 94.5 2000 14,079 1,846 1,753 1,258 504 ( 62. 6 ) 21.7 3,268 16.6 2.3 13.5 2001 28,267 4,893 2,819 2,111 978 94.0 11.2 ( 121 ) 7.9 1.2 14.6 2002 E 39,192 9,584 8,044 5,536 1,548 58.3 7.1 ( 1, 987 ) 5.1 1.3 28.9 2003 E 42,355 9,756 8,609 5,957 1,468 ( 5. 2 ) 7.5 1,029 4.5 1.1 23.2 2004 E 44,517 9,862 8,880 6,145 1,516 3.3 7.2 3,703 4.1 1.0 19. 4
2
2 5, 0 0 0 2 0, 0 0 0 1 5, 0 0 0 1 0, 0 0 0 5, 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 160 8 10 12 02 2 4 6 1 4 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 0 3
Valuation 4 1 5 1 4 9 0 0 1 6 1 7 3 8 8 1 Mkt Underperf Mkt Underperf Mkt Performer Mkt Underperf ( 6 2 6, ) 10,950 4,020 2,070 8,890 ( ) 482 238 225 385 ( ) 2002E 1,548 438 305 333 2003E 1,468 492 353 383 2004E 1,516 689 370 384 2002 P/B ( ) 2.4 1.2 0.9 2.3 2002 EBITDA ( ) 2,250 861 846 520 P/E ( ) 2002E 7.1 9.2 6.8 26.7 2003E 7.5 8.2 5.9 23.2 2004E 7.2 5.8 5.6 23.2 FV/EBITDA ( ) 2002E 5.1 11.2 2.5 19.2 2003E 4.6 9.9 2.4 16.5 2004E 4.2 8.0 1.3 18.0 EVA spread (%) 2002E 9.5 ( 5. 0 ) ( 1. 6 ) ( 8. 3 ) 2003E 2.6 ( 3. 7 ) ( 1. 7 ) ( 7. 5 ) 2004E ( 0. 7 ) ( 4. 5 ) ( 1. 8 ) ( 8. 1 ) ROE (%) 2002E 28.9 11.9 12.0 8.6 2003E 23.2 14.8 12.0 9.6 2004E 19.4 18.1 12.0 8.8 (%) 2002E 24.5 19.2 13.2 8.5 2003E 23.0 17.7 13.6 8.9 2004E 22.2 18.2 14.1 8.9 (%) 2002E 20.5 10.9 13.6 8.5 2003E 20.3 11.8 14.2 8.9 2004E 19.9 14.3 15.3 8.5 EBITDA (%) 2002E 25.3 16.8 28.5 9.8 2003E 25.0 14.6 27.6 10.0 2004E 24.6 15.0 28.4 8.4 4
4 1 5 1 EMI LN 7860 JP ( 6 2 6 ) (GBP, Y) 2.4 2,730 ( ) 10,950 4,380 27,038 ( ) 4 788 46 (GBPm, Yb) 1,891 129 ( ) 50 3,451 1,280 P/E ( ) 2002 E 7. 1 23.6 19.0 2003 E 7. 5 16.3 17.5 2004 E 7. 2 16.6 14.9 P/E ( ) 2002 E 7. 0 22. 6 34. 2 P/E ( ) 2002 E 1.0 1.0 0.6 FV/EBITDA ( ) 2002 E 5.2 9.1 12.6 2003 E 4.6 7.9 11.9 2004 E 4.2 6.9 6.1 EBITDA (%) 2002 E 25.3 13.1 11.9 2003 E 25.0 15.0 11.7 2004 E 24.6 16.5 20.0 ROE (%) 2002 E 28. 9 n/a 15.9 2003 E 23. 2 n/a 14.4 2004 E 19. 4 n/a 18.8 5
Publishing 5-20 8 5% 20 8 15 6 3.5% 20 6 110% TV 30 9 1, 4 13 9 10 7 4.5% 2 0 0 2 E 2 0 0 3 E 2 0 0 4 E 900 1,200 2,200 777 1,202 1,402 3,229 1,827 2,477 6
92,559 78,809 34,274 10,282 3,085 219,008 4 7,698 7,698 S.E.S. 5 280,000 70,000 17,500 4,375 371,875 5 200,000 50,000 12,500 3,125 265,625 1 15,180 3,795 949 19,924 2 210,000 52,500 13,125 3,281 984 279,891 FlytheSky 3 170,000 42,500 10,625 2,656 225,781 1 40,000 10,000 2,500 52,500 2 210,000 52,500 13,125 3,281 278,906 SMTOWN 100,000 25,000 6,250 1,563 132,813 1 6,883 2,065 8,948 2 300,000 75,000 18,750 4,688 398,438 DANA 2 40,000 10,000 2,500 625 53,125 4 50,000 12,500 3,125 65,625 ( 3 ) 40,000 10,000 2,500 52,500 ( 4 ) 40,000 10,000 2,500 52,500 S.E.S. 200,000 50,000 12,500 262,500 6 200,000 50,000 12,500 262,500 ( R o c k ) 40,000 10,000 2,500 52,500 FlytotheSky 4 150,000 37,500 9,375 196,875 3 150,000 37,500 187,500 2 40,000 10,000 50,000 3 200,000 200,000 SMTOWN 4 150,000 150,000 107,140 360,874 319,454 291,577 283,408 378,750 433,906 158,016 118,594 618,438 342,500 434,375 3, 8 4 7, 0 3 1 PD Making A 9,712 2,428 12,140 75,262 28,152 8,446 2,534 114,393 69,226 38,360 11,508 3,452 1,036 123,582 80,000 24,000 7,200 2,160 113,360 L I V E 15,000 4,500 1,350 20,850 35,000 10,500 3,150 48,650 50,000 12,500 3,125 781 66,406 50,000 15,000 4,500 1,350 70,850 70,000 20,000 90,000 50,000 12,500 3,125 781 66,406 Sharp 5 100,000 30,000 9,000 2,700 141,700 T 2 50,000 12,500 3,125 781 66,406 2 100,000 30,000 9,000 139,000 C o m p l i a t i o n 9,000 2,700 11,700 13,756 8,296 4,148 2,074 1,037 29,311 PD Making 167,956 77,236 24,102 138,060 211,073 109,200 122,285 35,256 59,781 115,200 42,125 12,481 1,114,755 7
8
1 Q 0 0 2 Q 0 0 3 Q 0 0 4 Q 0 0 1 Q 0 1 2 Q 0 1 3 Q 0 1 4 Q 0 1 1 Q 0 2 2 Q 0 2 E 3 Q 0 2 E 4 Q 0 2 E C D 848 970 3,603 2,802 2,543 3,098 6,566 4,400 3,712 4,872 3,286 5,427 M C 858 788 2,384 1,749 1,695 1,812 3,631 4,449 2,475 2,639 1,780 2,940 21 49 10 ( 2 ) 472 ( 373 ) 1,542 ( 1, 568 ) 436 3,534 3,465 4,626 ( %) C D n/a 14.4 271.3 ( 22. 2 ) ( 9. 3 ) 21.8 111.9 ( 33. 0 ) ( 15. 6 ) 31.2 ( 32. 6 ) 65.2 M C n/a ( 8. 2 ) 202.6 ( 26. 6 ) ( 3. 1 ) 6.9 100.4 22.5 ( 44. 4 ) 6.6 ( 32. 6 ) 65.2 n/a 140.0 ( 80. 5 ) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 710.8 ( 1. 9 ) 33.5 ( %) C D n/a n/a n/a n/a 199.8 219.3 82.3 57.0 46.0 57.3 ( 50. 0 ) 23.3 M C n/a n/a n/a n/a 97.5 130.0 52.3 154.4 46.0 45.7 ( 51. 0 ) ( 33. 9 ) n/a n/a n/a n/a 2,202.9 n/a 15,957.3 n/a ( 7. 7 ) n/a 124.8 n/a 48 10 31 H. O. T. 40 8 49 H. O. T. / / S. E. S. 63 S.E.S. surprise 5 4 / / / / / 75 2001 4 53 / F l y t o t h e S k y 42 F l y t o t h e S k y 2 22 46 9 5 / / / M. I. L. K. 5 / / / / Black Beat 2 9
1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 E 2 0 0 3 E 2 0 0 4 E ( A ) 283 1,315 4,310 1,846 4,893 9,682 9,756 9,862 ( B ) ( 74 ) ( 409 ) ( 1, 113 ) ( 494 ) ( 709 ) ( 2, 508 ) ( 2, 652 ) ( 2, 735 ) ( C ) 121 149 183 234 341 929 1,381 1,605 ( D = A + B + C ) 330 1,056 3,380 1,586 4,525 8,103 8,485 8,732 ( ) (E) - - - ( 3, 126 ) ( 4, 505 ) ( 13, 321 ) ( 2, 646 ) ( 1, 859 ) ( ) (F) - ( 434 ) ( 1, 387 ) ( 1, 077 ) 1,422 ( 983 ) ( 197 ) ( 133 ) ( ) (G) - - ( 241 ) ( 1, 049 ) ( 722 ) ( 682 ) ( 215 ) ( 145 ) ( ) (H)* ( 563 ) 34 ( 107 ) ( 3, 120 ) ( 3, 087 ) ( 1, 738 ) ( 1, 758 ) ( 2, 467 ) ( ) (I) - - 2,801 ( 304 ) ( 1, 153 ) 1,791 253 173 ( J = D + E + F + G + H + I ) ( 233 ) 655 4,446 ( 7, 090 ) ( 3, 518 ) ( 6, 829 ) 3,922 4,301 1 0
1 1
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 E 2 0 0 3 E 2 0 0 4 E CAGR (%) 0 1 ~ 0 4 E 14,079 28,267 39,192 42,355 44,517 16.3 5,364 10,174 17,940 19,160 19,778 24.8 1,846 4,893 9,584 9,756 9,862 26.3 1,753 2,819 8,044 8,609 8,880 46.6 1,258 2,111 5,536 5,957 6,145 42.8 EPS* ( ) 504 978 1,548 1,468 1,516 15.7 E B I T D A 1,982 4,417 9,904 10,573 10,950 35.3 EBITDA* ( ) 661 1,472 2,250 2,402 2,487 19.1 (%) 12.5 100.8 38.7 8.1 5.1 ( 57. 2 ) 165.1 95.9 1.8 1.1 ( 58. 4 ) 60.9 185.3 7.0 3.2 ( 59. 4 ) 67.7 162.3 7.6 3.2 E B I T D A ( 55. 9 ) 122.8 124.2 6.8 3.6 (%) 38.1 36.0 45.8 45.2 44.4 13.1 17.3 24.5 23.0 22.2 12.4 10.0 20.5 20.3 19.9 17.9 14.9 28.3 28.1 27.6 E B I T D A 14.1 15.6 25.3 25.0 24.6 1 2
5 ( 100, 000 ),,,, 1997 H.O.T., S.E.S.,, FlytotheSky,,, ( 2001 1 2 ) 62 53 67 12 2 9 65%, ( ) 10% 1 3
3, 500 3, 000 2, 500 2, 000 1, 500 1, 000 500 0 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 ( % ) 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 1 Q 0 1 2 Q 0 1 3 Q 0 1 4 Q 0 1 1 Q 0 2 2 Q 0 2 E 3 Q 0 2 E 4 Q 0 2 E 2 0 0 2 E 4,710 4,291 11,984 7,281 6,624 11,044 8,531 12,993 39,192 (, %) 3.5 ( 8. 9 ) 179.3 ( 39. 2 ) ( 9. 0 ) 66.7 ( 22. 8 ) 52.3 801 ( 306. 0 ) 2,348 2,050 563 3,227 2,053 3,741 9,584 (, %) ( 4. 6 ) ( 12. 7 ) ( 72. 5 ) 473.3 ( 36. 4 ) 82.2 824 ( 246. 1 ) 2,376 ( 133. 7 ) 583 2,366 2,053 3,042 8,044 (, %) 55.7 305.9 ( 13. 2 ) 48.1 (%) 172.8 137.4 99.9 60.1 40.6 157.4 ( 28. 8 ) 78.4 1,306.0 66.3 107.3 144.0 ( 29. 8 ) ( 1, 154. 5 ) ( 12. 6 ) 82.5 707.5 211.5 97.8 ( 125. 3 ) ( 29. 2 ) ( 1, 061. 3 ) ( 13. 6 ) (%) 17.0 ( 7. 1 ) 19.6 28.1 8.5 29.2 24.1 28.8 17.5 ( 5. 7 ) 19.8 ( 1. 8 ) 8.8 21.4 24.1 23. 4 1 4
5, 000 4, 500 4, 000 3, 500 3, 000 2, 500 2, 000 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 E 2 0 0 3 E 2 0 0 4 E (%) 10 5 0 ( 5 ) ( 10 ) ( 15 ) ( 20 ) 1 5
1 6
1 7
700, 000 600, 000 500, 000 400, 000 300, 000 200, 000 100, 000 0 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 1 8
1 9
1 4 435,196 IK-POP 2 2 413,580 3 8 403,829 IK-POP 4 S.E.S 5 ses 397,255 5 OST OST 357,021 6 5 326,823 7 5 262,099 8 4 258,550 DSP IK-POP 9 O.S.T. 217,922 10 208,138 DR MUSIC 11 GUJIP 201,052 Domestic JV (1/3) Warner 12 3 196,993 YBM 13 171,368 14 FlytotheSky F l y t o t h e S k y 158,936 15 Can with Piano CAN 148,190 TPA SONY 16 / 142,147 17 5 138,180 JYP ENT IK-POP 18 2 131,735 A&V IK-POP 19 5 127,819 YBM 20 4 116,240 2 0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 E 2003 E 2004 E 5,326 12,511 14,079 28,267 39,192 42,355 44,517 3,480 7,079 8,715 18,093 21,252 23,195 24,739 1,846 5,433 5,364 10,174 17,940 19,160 19,778 531 1,123 3,519 5,281 8,356 9,404 9,916 1,315 4,310 1,846 4,893 9,584 9,756 9,862 23 133 305 164 298 445 550 22 131 243 78 239 393 502 1 2 62 86 59 53 48 2 230 398 2,238 1,838 1,593 1,532 - - 2 23 210 70-2 230 397 2,215 1,628 1,523 1,532 1,336 4,213 1,753 2,819 8,044 8,609 8,880 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,336 4,213 1,753 2,819 8,044 8,609 8,880 409 1,113 494 709 2,508 2,651 2,735 927 3,100 1,258 2,111 5,536 5,957 6,145 EPS ( ) 409 1,346 504 978 1,548 1,468 1,516 E B I T D A 1,467 4,490 1,982 4,417 9,904 10,573 10,950 EBITDA ( ) 624 1,871 661 1,472 2,250 2,402 2,487 ( %) n/a 134.9 12.5 100.8 38.7 8.1 5.1 n/a 227.7 ( 57. 2 ) 165.1 95.9 1.8 1.1 n/a 215.3 ( 58. 4 ) 60.9 185.3 7.0 3.2 n/a 234.4 ( 59. 4 ) 67.7 162.3 7.6 3.2 E P S n/a 228.9 ( 62. 6 ) 94.0 58.3 ( 5. 2 ) 3.3 E B I T D A n/a 199.6 ( 64. 7 ) 122.8 52.8 6.8 3.6 (%) 24.7 34.4 13.1 17.3 24.5 23.0 22.2 25.1 33.7 12.4 10.0 20.5 20.3 19.9 17.4 24.8 8.9 7.5 14.1 14.1 13.8 EBITDA 27.6 35.9 14.1 15.6 25.3 25.0 24.6 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 E 2 0 0 3 E 2 0 0 4 E E B I T ( E B I T / ) (%) 24.7 34.4 12.2 14.1 22.5 21.3 20.5 ( / ) ( ) 2.5 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 ( / ) ( ) 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 ( /EBIT) ( ) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 ( ) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ROE (%) 129.3 94.5 13.5 14.6 28.9 23.2 19.4 2 1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 E 2003 E 2004 E 3,122 7,665 11,085 11,892 27,705 31,827 35,670 2,682 2,569 3,268 479 1,013 2,029 3,703-3,015 - - - - - 434 1,821 2,899 1,477 2,460 2,657 2,790 - - 3,126 7,630 20,951 23,596 25,455-241 1,291 2,012 2,694 2,909 3,055 6 19 503 294 588 635 668 562 1,820 5,382 8,388 10,205 12,016 14,534 32 1,266 4,746 5,577 7,286 9,050 10,959 529 555 636 646 625 666 621 - - - 2,165 2,294 2,299 2,954 3,684 9,486 16,467 20,280 37,910 43,842 50,204 2,228 3,952 2,902 3,683 8,253 7,316 6,468-2,801 2,497 1,344 3,135 3,388 3,561 1,282 20 97 625 1,097 1,186 1,246 429 - - 600 3,000 1,000-338 916 229 757 1,003 1,723 1,641 179 216 79 357 17 18 19 301 130 294 977 6,936 7,847 8,913 301 130 294 977 6,936 7,847 8,913 2,529 4,082 3,195 4,660 15,188 15,163 15,381 50 1,200 1,500 1,500 2,201 2,201 2,201 - - 6,716 6,716 7,636 7,636 7,636 1,104 4,203 5,462 7,573 13,109 19,066 25,211 - - 406 ( 168 ) ( 224 ) ( 224 ) ( 224 ) 1,154 5,403 13,272 15,620 22,721 28,678 34,823 3,684 9,485 16,467 20,280 37,910 43,842 50,204 429 - - 600 3,000 1,000 - ( 2, 252 ) ( 5, 584 ) ( 3, 268 ) 121 1,987 ( 1, 029 ) ( 3, 703 ) ROE (%) 129.3 94.5 13.5 14.6 28.9 23.2 19.4 ( ) 2.5 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 ( ) 30 53 75 19 23 23 23 ( ) - 82 65 17 29 29 29 ( ) - 7 33 26 25 25 25 2 2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 E 2003 E 2004 E 2,309 3,840 ( 4, 589 ) ( 761 ) ( 5, 086 ) 2,711 4,995 927 3,100 1,258 2,111 5,536 5,957 6,145 154 185 264 284 304 358 407 - - - 148 777 1,202 1,402 ( ) 1,109 242 ( 6, 494 ) ( 5, 478 ) ( 12, 475 ) ( 1, 996 ) ( 1, 986 ) 119 314 383 2,174 772 ( 2, 810 ) ( 972 ) ( 150 ) ( 4, 673 ) ( 1, 729 ) ( 3, 427 ) ( 2, 723 ) ( 3, 017 ) ( 4, 576 ) ( ) ( 120 ) ( 210 ) ( 347 ) ( 293 ) ( 108 ) ( 47 ) ( 610 ) ( ) - ( 3, 015 ) 3,015 - - - - ( ) ( 30 ) ( 1, 449 ) ( 4, 397 ) ( 832 ) ( 1, 709 ) ( 1, 764 ) ( 1, 909 ) ( ) - - - ( 2, 217 ) ( 906 ) ( 1, 207 ) ( 2, 057 ) 520 721 7,016 1,400 8,342 1,322 1,255 260 ( 429 ) - 600 - - - - 1,150 7,016-1,621 - - 260 - - 800 6,722 1,322 1,255 ( ) 2,679 ( 113 ) 699 ( 2, 788 ) 534 1,016 1,674 3 2,682 2,569 3,268 479 1,013 2,029 2,682 2,569 3,268 479 1,013 2,029 3,703 2 3
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