Jun. 11. 2004 6 10 71,600 6 80,000. 1M 3M 12M absolute -5% 5% 7% 1 () 120 90000 70000 100 Valuation 2005 EPS 7,947 50000 80 PER 10 80,000. 30000. 10000 60 2003-06-10 2003-11-05 2004-04-02 ( : Datastream Key Data 294 5,878 52 61,400-91,500 3 31,871 PER 11.3 PBR 1.3 ROE 12.4% 13.2% 14.7% 10.6% 27.9% ( :, ( :, ) 1
. 60.0 15.0 40.0 40.0 30.0 10.0 20.0 5.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99 00 01 02 03 02 04F 06F 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2
1997.12 1998.12 1999.12 2000.12 2001.12 2002.12 2003.12 8.3% 5.2% 6.5% 0.6% 5.2% 10.4% -3.3% 61.6% 62.0% 59.3% 59.4% 58.7% 58.2% 59.8% 7.0% 10.1% 11.0% 7.1% 8.2% 10.1% 9.7% 2.0% 2.7% 4.8% 5.8% 3.2% 6.6% 1.2% 1997.12 1998.12 1999.12 2000.12 2001.12 2002.12 2003.12 11.6% -6.3% 11.3% 11.0% 13.9% 9.7% 5.1% 37.8% 34.3% 36.6% 40.2% 41.4% 42.0% 42.3% 5.8% 6.7% 6.8% 9.1% 11.2% 14.3% 13.6% 1.4% 2.1% 3.9% 5.4% 6.8% 9.8% 8.8% 1997.12 1998.12 1999.12 2000.12 2001.12 2002.12 2003.12-0.9% 2.7% 0.7% 1.1% 4.4% 5.7% 3.7% 32.5% 33.0% 37.9% 38.1% 38.9% 40.0% 40.0% 0.2% 7.3% 11.7% 9.5% 8.2% 7.4% 5.8% -5.2% -9.1% -3.9% 0.0% 3.7% 6.6% 3.6% 2000 M/S 27.0% 26.5% 1500 26.0% 25.5% 1000 25.0% 24.5% 500 24.0% 99 00 01 02 03 3
TV M/S 14% 10% 5% 26% 29% 57% 59% 4
Pay per View, Vod ARPU. 06, SO. PP SO 04 1 2003 29%, 33%. 03 46 04 85, 05 119, 06 148. MSO 04.1Q 2003 2002 04.1Q 2003 2002 04.1Q 2003 2002 35,653 122,207 92,997 11,161 39,111 29,994 60 360 338 20,810 68,458 50,539 6,454 24,532 18,052-14,843 53,749 42,457 4,707 14,579 11,942 60 360 338 9,137 35,446 35,846 2,136 7,905 5,732 679 2,405 3,210 5,706 18,303 6,611 2,571 6,674 6,210-619 - 2,045-2,872 12,703 40,781 7,663 4,617 13,505 10,668-578 4,787-2,552 5,295 15,145 4,793 2,448 4,898 5,317 473 4,642-1,655 300 12% 40% 12 200 8% 30% 9 20% 6 100 4% 10% 3 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 catv 0% 0% MBC CJ SBS M/S PP 0 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 5
.. 84%, 50%. 1999 2003 29.9%. 1) 2002 2.2 5.1, 4.9, 4.1, 3.4, 2) 5, 1.5... 50%. (8-10%)..,. 2003, 03 04 20. 04 25%. 04 ( 98 58%), ( 7 20%) ( 10 26%). 04 1,000 24 75 114. 05 05 M/S (05 43, 06 113 ) ( 50 ). 150 12.00% 100 8.00% 50 4.00% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 M/S 0.00% 6
03 03 50 02 58.9 03 2.8. 02 111. 04 103 05, 06 100 163. 2000 2001 2002 2003 196 436 710 857 105 231 391 479 13 65 111 138 4 42 65 97 56.6% 53.1% 55.1% 55.9% 6.7% 14.9% 15.6% 16.1% 2.0% 9.7% 9.2% 11.3% 16.0 28.0 48.0 48.0 2004 2004.01.01 2004.01.15 2004.01.29 2004.02.05 2004.03.04 2004.03.19 2004.04.01 2004.04.15 2004.05.05 2004.05.26 2004.06.18 2004.07.09 2004.07.23 2004.08.06 2004.09.03 2004.09.17 2004.10.01 2004.10.20 2004.11.01 2004.12.01 2004.12.10 2003 2003 24 21.9% 28 22.7% 26 18.6% 28 17.0% 13 8.1% 21 9.7% 11 7.5% 19 8.8% 17 6.8% 22 8.6% 20 5.1% 16 8.2% 10 4.9% 13 5.6% 8 4.8% 8 4.5% 17 4.8% 9 3.2% 7
.? 4 24. 1), 2), ( 8 3 ), 3) (.), 4).. 03 10.6 04 5 12.3. 300 (1-1, 1-2 ).. 48 60. 04 1,872 05 3,120... 2008 2005 150 340.. 03,. 04 138 208.. 40%. 50 + ( 128 ) 06. 04, 05, 06 164, -79, -31. 8
,,,,,,,,,,, 50% : 50% : 50% 75%,000 1,000 90 300 2003 2004(E) 2005(E) 2006(E) 283 1872 3120 3640 27 52 52 52 11 36 60 70 64 425 709 827 64 138 0 0 287 709 827 317 459 484 483-317 -172 225 344-404 -75 122 241-279 -164-79 -31 25% 25% 50% 9
( 50%) OFC(Orion Food Co.) OFS(Orion Food Shanghai). OFC 80.3%, OFS 100%... 1999 32.7%. 51.1%... 04, 05, 06 45, 47, 49. OFC 04, 05, 06 8.7, 9.0, 9.5 OFS 04, 05, 06 9.8, -7.5, -6.1. 60 40 20 15 10 5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 13.1 15.6 27.3 37.0 51.0 5.7 6.7 11.7 15.3 17.5 1.3 1.2 0.4-0.2-0.1 1.1 0.7 0.2-0.3-0.2 43.6% 43.0% 43.0% 41.2% 34.2% 10.1% 7.9% 1.5% -0.5% -0.2% 8.1% 4.4% 0.6% -0.8% -0.5% 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0 () () () () 10
& 88.8%. 2002 10 2003 4. 2004. 03 4 8.5%. 04 4 12.0%. 8.0%, 9.8%. 04 3% 1)04 3 2). 10.. 2004. 04 8.8, 05 06 9.5 10.2. 2002 2003 2004(E) 2002 2003 2004(E) 26 28 28 47 40 43 33 34 36 11 55 40 40 24 20 19 30 28 25 18 12 13 38 - - 2000 2002 26 37.2 49.2 61.9 70.2 14.3 20.5 26.9 33.2 36.1 3.9 4.9 5.1 5.5 3.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.7 0.5 55.0% 55.1% 54.7% 53.6% 51.4% 15.0% 13.2% 10.4% 8.9% 4.7% 2.3% 3.2% 3.5% 2.7% 0.7% 3.4 17.1 5.1 11
03 6000 4000 2000 2002 2003 7,200 2,160 10,000 LG25 7,000 1,587 9,000 6,500 1,300 7,000 3,357 880 4,498 2,183 707 3,100 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(E) 12
2005 04.. PER 2003 3 PER 7.1 EV/EVITDA 6.7. 2004 PER EV/EVITDA 11.3 7.8. 2005 PER EV/EVITD 9.1 6.7. CJ 2004 PER 8.4.( PER 10 ) CJ PER 10.8. ( PER 15.5 ), CJ CJ PER. 2005 EPS PER CJ PER 10 80,000. Market Perform. 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 99 00 01 02 04F PER EV/EBITDA -10-8 -6 85 119 148 103 100 163-164 -79-31 13
(:) (:) 02 03 04F 05F 06F 02 03 04F 05F 06F 5,289 5,114 5,422 5,670 5,857 1,079 1,151 1,387 1,355 1,386 3,077 3,056 3,275 3,439 3,584 12 101 214 157 154 2,212 2,058 2,147 2,231 2,273 10 4 4 4 4 1,676 1,564 1,614 1,693 1,717 537 494 532 538 556 787 781 853 874 902 187 36 160 279 432 255 250 294 299 309 234 448 170 165 142 15 15 22 21 17 489 82 522 652 846 4,514 4,999 5,110 5,321 5,693 2,355 2,869 3,003 3,239 3,630 489 82 522 652 846 2,154 2,125 2,101 2,075 2,057 140 19 148 185 240 5 6 6 6 5 349 63 374 467 606 5,593 6,150 6,498 6,676 7,078 (:) 1,694 1,507 1,790 2,144 2,508 02 03 04F 05F 06F 375 426 429 442 460 544 447 393 443 411 461 141 748 349 63 374 467 606 95 325 295 295 95 338 555 289 295 299 764 616 1,067 1,407 1,205 145 2 121 239 395 1,386 1,753 1,550 1,137 821 2-168 -150-80 -100 600 1,050 850 710 510-648 -504-198 -168-177 646 521 526 230 135-135 -108-172 -171-181 98 136 109 116 120-359 -396-26 3 4 42 46 66 81 56-155 0 0 0 0 3,081 3,260 3,341 3,281 3,329 89 147-82 -332-236 110 184-135 -282-186 2,512 2,890 3,157 3,394 3,749 14 10 104 0 0 270 272 294 294 294-35 -47-51 -51-51 1,164 1,172 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,116 1,148 1,312 1,549 1,903-16 90 113-57 -3-37 299 299 299 299 27 12 101 214 157 12 101 214 157 154 5,593 6,150 6,498 6,676 7,078 (:%,) Valuation (:,,%) 02 03 04F 05F 06F 02 03 04F 05F 06F 41.8 40.2 39.6 39.3 38.8 EPS 6,493 1,152 6,363 7,947 10,309 10.1 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.5 PER 8.9 60.6 11.3 9.1 7.0 6.6 1.2 6.9 8.2 10.3 BPS 46,651 53,090 53,603 57,645 63,681 ROA 6.2 1.1 5.9 7.1 8.8 PBR 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 ROE 14.8 2.3 12.4 14.3 17.0 CPS 10,125 8,231 6,680 7,540 6,984 PCR 5.7 8.5 10.8 9.5 10.3 10.4-3.3 6.0 4.6 3.3 SPS 98,431 94,152 92,239 96,460 99,637 36.0-7.9 7.8 1.1 3.4 PSR 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 EPS 123.7-82.3 452.3 24.9 29.7 EBIT() 652 222 660 787 959 122.6 112.8 105.8 96.7 88.8 EBITDA() 810 359 856 984 1,159 3.8 1.5 4.4 5.4 7.7 EV() 5,568 6,283 6,660 6,592 6,621 EV/EBITDA() 6.9 17.5 7.8 6.7 5.7 11.3 12.1 12.0 11.6 11.8 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 13 17 17 17 17 ( :, ) 14
History Network 15