1. News Summary (3 page) 212 년 9 월 18 일 News WTI comment 전략비축유방출루머에유가하락 Conclusion Headline 전일 Valero(-5.1%) 등미국정유주하락 3Q 호실적이후 4Q 실적불안감, Citi 의투자의견하향등반영 News 1. - - News 2. - - News 3. - - News 4. - - News 5. - - 2. Prices Summary (4~6 page) Daily Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Weekly Update Unit Price 1W 1M 3M 12M Refinery % % % % % Petrochemical % % % % WTI $/bbl 96.5 (2.5)..5 14.8 12.6 Ethylene 9/17 $/t 1,32.9 4.7 31.9 1.8 Dubai $/bbl 114.8 (.6) 1.7 3.4 22.3 6.4 Propylene 9/17 $/t 1,35 1.6 4.8 12. (11.2) Gasoline $/bbl 128.9 (.6).8 (1.1) 26.5 2.4 Benzene 9/17 $/t 1,255 2.9 6.4 2.1 13.6 Diesel $/bbl 133.5 (.2) 1.3 1.1 22.6 6.8 Toluene 9/17 $/t 1,215 1.7 4.5 19.4 5.2 Complex margin $/bbl 8.6 (.) (.8) (2.4) 2.8 (.9) Xylene 9/17 $/t 1,19 1.7 3.7 15. (6.5) 1M lagging $/bbl 12.4 (.5) (1.8) (6.9) 17.8 (4.1) PP 9/17 $/t 1,44 1.1 3.6 9.9 (1.3) Petrochemical % % % % % PVC 9/17 $/t 1,35 1.5 3.5 15. (1.4) Naphtha $/t 989 (.6) (1.2) 3.7 3.4 2.5 ABS 9/17 $/t 1,94 (1.) (1.8) 7.8 (1.4) Butadiene $/t 2,. 2. 9.3 6.7 (42.4) AN 9/17 $/t 1,99. 5. 17.4 (7.9) HDPE $/t 1,352.5 2. 2.2 6.6 (.8) SM 9/17 $/t 1,528 2.5 5.7 21. 1.5 MEG $/t 1,151 1. 7. 13.8 35.6 (12.9) BPA 9/17 $/t 1,71.9 4.3 11.8 (16.2) PX $/t 1,592.8 5.3 1.8 27.4 (6.4) Caustic 9/17 $/t 465. (.5) (2.6) 24. PTA $/t 1,14 1.5 6.5 11.7 23.2 (16.1) 2-EH 9/17 $/t 1,695 2.4 6.3 1.1 (8.1) Commodity % % % % % Caprolactam 9/17 $/t 2,39 2.4 4.4 3. (34.) Natural Gas $/mmbtu 2.87 (2.7) 1.9 1.8 3.2 (35.7) Solar % % % % Natural rubber $/t 2,75. 6.2 11.8 (5.5) (39.3) Polysilicon 9/12 $/kg 2.1 (.3) (3.1) (15.5) (6.5) Cotton C/lbs 75.3 (.8) (.4).7 4.8 (23.1) Module 9/12 $/W.72 (.3) (1.5) (12.6) (38.1) * 참고 : 정제마진의변동률은 % 가아닌 $/bbl 임 3. Global Peers Summary (7 page) Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Petrochemical % % % % % Refinery % % % % % Dow Chem USD 31.1 (3.5) 2.7 3.2 (7.4) 1. Petrochina CNY 8.9 (.7) (1.1) (.8) (3.3) (8.3) Eastman USD 57.8 (1.5) 1. 3.7 17.1 51.5 Sinopec CNY 6. (2.4) (3.7) (3.2) (6.7) (16.8) BASF EUR 66.6.3 3.8 7.3 16.5 4.2 Formosa Pet. TWD 89.7 (.6) 6.4 (.3) 8.3 5.5 SABIC SAR 94.3 (.3) 4.1 3.3 2.7 1.1 Reliance INR 873.8 3.8 1.3 7.1 18.5 5.8 Yansab SAR 47.6.2 4.4 2.1 6. 3.9 ExxonMobil USD 91.9 (.4) 2.7 4. 8.8 23.3 Industries Qatar QAR 143. (.2) 3.2 3.8 7. 13.5 Solar Mitsubishi Ch. JPY 323.. 8. (4.7) (6.9) (41.6) GCL HKD 1.3 (5.2) 9.4 8.5 (29.7) (56.3) Formosa Pla. TWD 85.1.1 2.9 2.9 7.2 2.5 Wacker EUR 54.7 (1.2) 1..5 (.6) (38.9) NanYa Pla. TWD 58..9 4.9 (.9) 2.7 (13.4) Trina Solar USD 4.4 (1.4) 6.6 (9.3) (34.6) (54.5) Petronas MYR 6.5. 4. (.2) (.5) 6. First Solar USD 23.2 (5.6) 11.8 9.3 52.6 (72.9) 4. Coverage Summary 9/17 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M 투자의견 TP % P/E P/B KOSPI 2,2 (.3) 4. 2.9 5.8 (1.6) 8.8 * 추정치는 12M fwd(3q12~2q13) 기준임 KOSPI 화학 4,462.5 3.7 1.6 6.4 (7.3) (6.) * 국도화학은별도기준임 LG 화학 332, 1.8 6.8 1.2 13.9 (11.) (3.2) 매수 41, 23.5 9.88 2.5 호남석유화학 264, 2.7 6..6 11.2 (17.9) (3.5) 적극매수 41, 55.3 8.1 1.16 한화케미칼 22,1.5 4.2.7 4.7 (19.) (26.9) 매수 27, 22.2 8.46.66 금호석유화학 125, 4.6 1.6. 5. (18.8) (3.4) 매수 17, 36. 8.56 2.9 OCI 197,. 4. (3.9) (8.8) (22.4) (28.1) 매수 31, 57.4 9.68 1.14 SKC 44,85 (1.) 2. (5.5) 3.5 (4.9) 4.2 매수 6, 33.8 8.1 1.23 국도화학 49,8 (2.9) 2.2 1.8 1.4 (2.) 6.2 적극매수 8, 6.6 7.29.81 SK 이노베이션 176,. 4.8 2.3 18.9 4.8 4.5 매수 21, 19.3 8.72 1.3 S-Oil 11,.5 2.3 (.5) 15.3 (7.9) (12.) 매수 13, 18.2 1.14 2.49 GS 68,8 (.9) 2.4 4.4 22.4 8.2.1 매수 75, 9. 8.56.86 작성자 ( 손지우 ) 는본조사분석자료에게재된내용들이본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이신의성실하게작성되었음을확인합니다. 본보고서에언급된종목의경우당사조사분석담당자는본인의담당종목을보유하고있지않습니다. 본보고서는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공된이없습니다. 당사는본보고서의발간시점에해당종목을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다.
Key Chart KOSPI/KOSPI 화학 WTI/Dubai (p) 7, KOSPI( 우 ) KOSPI 화학 ( 좌 ) (p) 2, ($/bbl) 13 WTI Dubai 6, 2,2 12 11 5, 2, 1 4, 1,8 9 8 3, 1, 7 2, 1/11 11/2 11/5 11/8 11/12 12/3 12/6 1, 12/9 6 1/9 11/1 11/5 11/9 12/1 12/5 Complex & 1M lagging margin ($/bbl) 1M lagging margin 복합정제마진 3 25 2 15 1 5 (5) (1) (15) 1/9 11/1 11/5 11/9 12/1 12/5 12/9 Naphtha/Ethylene/Propylene prices Polysilicon & Module prices ($/kg) Polysilicon( 좌 ) Module( 우 ) 9 7 5 3 1 1/9 11/2 11/8 12/1 12/7 Butadiene price & 1M lagging naphtha spread ($/W) 2. 1.5 1..5 1,8 Naphtha Ethylene Propylene 5, 1M lagging spread( 우 ) Butadiene( 좌 ) 4, 1, 1, 4, 3, 3, 2, 8 2, 1/9 1/11 1/12 11/2 11/4 11/6 11/8 11/1 11/11 12/1 12/3 12/5 12/7 12/9 HDPE price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1/91/111/1211/211/411/611/811/111/1112/112/312/512/712/9 MEG price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1,5 1M lagging spread( 우 ) HDPE( 좌 ) 7 1, 1M lagging spread( 우 ) MEG( 좌 ) 1, 1,3 5 2 1,1 3 8 2 1/91/111/1211/211/411/611/811/111/1112/112/312/512/712/9 PVC price & 1M lagging naphtha spread (2) 1/91/111/1211/211/411/611/811/111/1112/112/312/512/712/9 PX price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1,3 1M lagging spread( 우 ) PVC( 좌 ) 1,8 1M lagging spread( 우 ) PX( 좌 ) 3 1, 8 1,1 2 1, 1 9 2 8 (1) 1/91/111/1211/211/411/611/811/111/1112/112/312/512/712/9 8 1/91/111/1211/211/411/611/811/111/1112/112/312/512/712/9 자료 : Bloomberg, Cischem, Petronet, Platts, Pvinsights, SK 증권 참고 : 상기데이터는일괄적으로과거 2 년치적용
News Comment Headline ( 출처 : Bloomberg) WTI Comment ( 출처 : 연합뉴스 ) 전일 Valero(-5.1%) 등미국정유주하락 전략비축유방출루머에유가하락 3Q 호실적이후 4Q 실적불안감, Citi의투자의견하향등반영 상승 이슬람모욕에대한규탄시위지속중 요인 다오위다오 ( 센카쿠 ) 영유권갈등, 중국에서반일폭력시위 1) 미국대표정유주 Valero -5.1% 외 Marathon -3.5%, Phillips66-1.3% 2) 미국정유주 3Q 호실적과 E&P 성장등으로 8년이후주가최고치였음 하락 장중 $1/bbl 돌파했으나막판급락하며 $96.62/bbl 마무리 3) 그러나평년보다따뜻한겨울따른수요감소와 margin 압박우려제기 요인 현지시각 13:54 경거래량급등, CFTC는유가급락관련정보수집중 4) 또한 Citi는해당정유사들에대해서투자의견 neutral로하향조정 일각에서는전략비축유방출루머도있었음 5) 각국부양책발효시점에서정유주 merit 여전하나 4Q 실적부담은 Issue 1 Issue 2 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5) Issue 3 Issue 4 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5) Issue 5 Issue 6 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5)
Refining Price Data Daily Price 9/17 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 21avg. 211avg. 212acc. Crude Oil WTI 96.5 99. 96.5 96. 84.1 17. 85.7 99.2 79.4 95. 96.4 Change, % (2.5)..5 14.8 (9.8) 12.6 (2.7) 21.6 1.6.2 Dubai 114.8 115.4 112.9 111. 93.9 123.1 17.8 14.9 78.1 15.8 19.6 Change, % (.6) 1.7 3.4 22.3 (6.8) 6.4 9.4 46.9 8.4 4.7 Crude Oil Gasoline( 휘발유 ) 128.9 129.7 127.9 13.2 11.9 137. 125.8 116.9 88.4 12.5 124.4 Product Change, % (.6).8 (1.1) 26.5 (5.9) 2.4 1.2 45.8 6.9 3.6 Kerosene( 등유 ) 135.3 136. 134.7 132. 19.6 137. 125.4 121.7 9.2 125.4 126.7 Change, % (.5).4 2.4 23.4 (1.3) 7.9 11.2 49.9 7.9 6.7 Diesel( 경유 ) 133.5 133.8 131.8 132. 18.9 137. 125. 122.8 89.6 124.3 126.5 Change, % (.2) 1.3 1.1 22.6 (2.5) 6.8 8.7 49.1 7.4 5.5 Bunker-C 18.2 19.3 17.2 15. 9.9 115.5 12.4 13.6 72.4 99.6 15.8 Change, % (1.) 1. 3.1 19. (6.3) 5.7 4.4 49.4 8.6 2.2 Naphtha 18.6 19.7 11.3 14.2 79.3 119.2 16.1 1. 79.3 13.1 13.7 Change, % (1.) (1.6) 4.2 37. (8.9) 2.4 8.6 36.9 5.3 4.8 Dubai Gasoline( 휘발유 ) 14.1 14.2 15. 19.2 8.1 13.9 18. 12. 1.3 14.7 14.8 Spread Change (.1) (.9) (5.1) 6.1.3 (3.9) 2.1 3.8 (.6) (.6) Kerosene( 등유 ) 2.5 2.6 21.8 21. 15.7 14. 17.6 16.8 12.1 19.5 17.1 Change (.1) (1.3) (.5) 4.8 6.6 2.9 3.7 8.4 1. 3.4 Diesel( 경유 ) 18.8 18.4 18.9 21. 15. 13.9 17.2 17.9 11.4 18.4 16.9 Change.3 (.2) (2.2) 3.7 4.9 1.6.8 7.3.3 1.8 Bunker-C (6.6) (6.1) (5.7) (6.) (2.9) (7.6) (5.5) (1.3) (5.7) (6.2) (3.8) Change (.4) (.8) (.5) (3.6) 1. (1.1) (5.3) (.8) (.3) (2.8) Naphtha (6.2) (5.8) (2.6) (6.8) (14.6) (3.9) (1.8) (4.9) 1.2 (2.7) (6.) Change (.4) (3.6).6 8.4 (2.2) (4.4) (1.2) (7.4) (3.4) (.2) Refining Simple( 단순 ) 2.1 2.2 3. 3.6 1.8 (.4) 2.8 4..7 2.4 2.8 Margin Change (.1) (.9) (1.5).3 2.4 (.7) (1.9) 1.4 (.3) (.7) Complex( 복합 ) 8.6 8.7 9.5 11. 5.8 6.3 9.6 9. 5.6 9. 8.7 Change (.) (.8) (2.4) 2.8 2.4 (.9) (.3) 3. (.3) (.) Complex(lagging) 12.4 12.8 14.1 19.3 (5.5) 11.7 16.4 6.3 6.7 1. 9.4 Change (.5) (1.8) (6.9) 17.8.7 (4.1) 6.1 5.7 2.4 2.9 자료 : Petronet, SK 증권 참고 1) Crude Oil 가격은현물 (spot) 기준으로선물 (future) 가격과다를수있음 참고 2) Gasoline 은 95RON, 경유는 L/P.5%, Bunker-C 는 38cst/4.% 기준임
Petrochemical Price Data Daily Price 9/17 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/1 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 989. 994.8 987. 1,4.5 1,2.8.8 988.8 987. 985.5.5 Ethylene CFR SE Asia 1,35. 1,3. 1,28. 1,28. 1,285. 1,285. 1,285. 1,315. 1,32. 1,33. Propylene FOB Korea 1,319. 1,319. 1,32. 1,323. 1,325. 1,326. 1,331. 1,339. 1,339. 1,334. Butadiene FOB Korea 2,. 2,. 2,. 1,96. 1,96. 1,96. 1,96. 1,92. 1,92. 1,94. HDPE CFR FE Asia 1,352. 1,345. 1,337. 1,335. 1,33. 1,325. 1,325. 1,328. 1,33. 1,335. LDPE CFR FE Asia 1,33. 1,32. 1,34. 1,31. 1,294. 1,288. 1,284. 1,284. 1,285. 1,288. LLDPE CFR FE Asia 1,35. 1,338. 1,332. 1,33. 1,319. 1,318. 1,314. 1,314. 1,314. 1,318. MEG CFR China 1,151. 1,14. 1,118. 1,111. 1,81. 1,76. 1,69. 1,66. 1,66. 1,75. PP CFR FE Asia 1,44. 1,43. 1,425. 1,425. 1,418. 1,412. 1,412. 1,49. 1,49. 1,44. PX CFR China 1,592. 1,579.5 1,554.5 1,562.5 1,522.5 1,512.5 1,491.5 1,466.5 1,46.5 1,466.5 PTA CFR China 1,14. 1,123. 1,9. 1,86. 1,7. 1,7. 1,61. 1,65. 1,59. 1,65. Benzene FOB Korea 1,258.5 1,248.5 1,241. 1,239.5 1,222.5 1,212.5 1,213. 1,187. 1,176.5 1,191.5 Toluene FOB Korea 1,233. 1,21.5 1,193.5 1,199.5 1,186.5 1,173.5 1,162.5 1,156.5 1,151. 1,153. Xylene FOB Korea 1,367.5 1,349.5 1,337.5 1,343.5 1,314.5 1,35.5 1,295.5 1,269.5 1,266.5 1,27. SM FOB Korea 1,548.5 1,521.5 1,59.5 1,519.5 1,476.5 1,47.5 1,464. 1,445. 1,447. 1,45. Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 21avg. 211avg. 212acc. Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 998.5 99. 954. 757. 873.5 981. 912.5 722.4 937.2 941.7 Change, %.9 4.7 31.9 14.3 1.8 9.4 38.2 6.5 6. Ethylene CFR SE Asia 1,32. 1,285. 1,195. 935. 1,175. 1,12. 1,1. 1,79.7 1,186.7 1,198.5 Change, % 2.7 1.5 41.2 12.3 17.9 2. 22.3 11.2 1.1 Propylene CFR SE Asia 1,35. 1,285. 1,245. 1,165. 1,21. 1,47. 1,21. 1,135.5 1,385.9 1,317.7 Change, % 1.6 4.8 12. 7.9 (11.2) 7.9 14.9 (5.8) (1.) Butadiene CFR SE Asia 2,. 1,935. 1,975. 1,85. 2,15. 3,45. 2,575. 1,897.7 2,921.7 2,673.3 Change, % 3.4 1.3 8.1 (7.) (42.) (22.3) 5.4 (31.5) (25.2) Benzene CFR SE Asia 1,255. 1,22. 1,18. 1,45.. 1,15. 1,75. 915.1 1,11.4 1,172. Change, % 2.9 6.4 2.1 4.6 13.6 16.7 37.1 14. 7.1 Toluene CFR SE Asia 1,215. 1,195. 1,162.5 1,17.5 1,142.5 1,155. 1,145. 859.1 1,14.1 1,178.9 Change, % 1.7 4.5 19.4 6.3 5.2 6.1 41.4 1. 3.1 Xylene CFR SE Asia 1,19. 1,17. 1,147.5 1,35. 1,155. 1,272.5 1,215. 863.7 1,153.3 1,185.8 Change, % 1.7 3.7 15. 3. (6.5) (2.1) 37.8 3.2.4 Spread Ethylene -Naphtha 321.5 295. 241. 178. 31.5 139. 187.5 357.3 249.6 256.8 Change, % 9. 33.4 8.6 6.6 131.3 71.5 (1.) 28.8 25.2 Propylene -Naphtha 36.5 295. 291. 48. 336.5 489. 297.5 413.1 448.8 376. Change, % 3.9 5.3 (24.9) (8.9) (37.3) 3. (25.8) (31.7) (18.5) Butadiene -Naphtha 1,1.5 945. 1,21. 1,93. 1,276.5 2,469. 1,662.5 1,175.3 1,984.5 1,731.6 Change, % 6. (1.9) (8.4) (21.5) (59.4) (39.8) (14.8) (49.5) (42.2) Benzene -Naphtha 256.5 23. 226. 288. 326.5 124. 162.5 192.7 164.2 23.3 Change, % 11.5 13.5 (1.9) (21.4) 16.9 57.8 33.1 56.2 11.4 Toluene -Naphtha 216.5 25. 28.5 26.5 269. 174. 232.5 136.7 166.9 237.2 Change, % 5.6 3.8 (16.9) (19.5) 24.4 (6.9) 58.4 29.7 (8.7) Xylene -Naphtha 191.5 18. 193.5 278. 281.5 291.5 32.5 141.3 216.2 244.1 Change, % 6.4 (1.) (31.1) (32.) (34.3) (36.7) 35.6 (11.4) (21.6) 자료 : Cischem, Platts, Bloomberg, SK증권 참고 : Spread는 Polymer와 Naphtha의가격차이임
Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 21avg. 211avg. 212acc. Spot Price HDPE CFR SE Asia 1,34. 1,335. 1,31. 1,275. 1,355. 1,41. 1,29. 1,221.5 1,352.8 1,348.2 Change, %.4 2.3 5.1 (1.1) (5.) 3.9 9.7 (.9) (.6) MEG CFR SE Asia 1,14. 1,67.5 1,12.5 847.5 972.5 1,295. 1,87.5 882.4 1,181.9 1,3.6 Change, % 6.8 12.6 34.5 17.2 (12.) 4.8 29.2 (3.5) 13.6 PVC CFR SE Asia 1,35. 1,2.. 9. 1,3. 1,5. 965. 994.3 1,68.9 988.4 Change, % 1.5 3.5 15..5 (1.4) 7.3 4.1 (3.2) 4.7 PP CFR SE Asia 1,44. 1,425. 1,39. 1,31. 1,37. 1,65. 1,35. 1,33.3 1,556.4 1,399.2 Change, % 1.1 3.6 9.9 5.1 (1.3) 1.3 1.5 (7.5) 2.9 2-EH CFR Korea 1,695. 1,655. 1,595. 1,54. 1,625. 1,845. 1,45. 1,699. 1,797.1 1,593.8 Change, % 2.4 6.3 1.1 4.3 (8.1) 2.6 (.2) (5.7) 6.3 ABS CFR SE Asia 1,94. 1,96. 1,975. 1,8. 1,945. 2,165. 1,95. 1,932.4 2,146.6 2,15.8 Change, % (1.) (1.8) 7.8 (.3) (1.4) 1.8.4 (9.6) (3.8) AN CFR SE Asia 1,99. 1,99. 1,895. 1,695. 1,872.5 2,16. 1,83. 2,192.6 2,341.6 1,99.7 Change, %. 5. 17.4 6.3 (7.9) 8.7 (9.2) (15.) (.) SM CFR SE Asia 1,527.5 1,49. 1,445. 1,262.5 1,395. 1,55. 1,352.5 1,894.3 2,244.4 1,93.1 Change, % 2.5 5.7 21. 9.5 1.5 12.9 (19.4) (31.9) (2.9) Caustic FOB NEA 465. 465. 467.5 477.5 457.5 375. 465. 213.7 391.1 454.4 Change, %. (.5) (2.6) 1.6 24.. 117.6 18.9 2.3 PX CFR SE Asia 1,585. 1,497.5 1,437.5 1,272.5 1,455. 1,722.5 1,492.5 1,218.7 1,416.1 1,427.6 Change, % 5.8 1.3 24.6 8.9 (8.) 6.2 3.1 11.9 11. BPA CFR Korea 1,71. 1,695. 1,64. 1,53. 1,655. 2,4. 1,535. 1,948.1 2,98.5 1,658.6 Change, %.9 4.3 11.8 3.3 (16.2) 11.4 (12.2) (18.5) 3.1 Caprolactam CFR SE Asia 2,39. 2,335. 2,29. 2,32. 2,5. 3,62. 2,575. 2,595.2 3,331.5 2,574.3 Change, % 2.4 4.4 3. (4.4) (34.) (7.2) (7.9) (28.3) (7.2) PTA CFR SE Asia 1,122.5 1,67.5 1,27.5 935. 1,12.5 1,34. 1,122.5 957.5 1,268.4 1,99. Change, % 5.2 9.2 2.1 1.8 (16.2). 17.2 (11.5) 2.1 Spread HDPE 341.5 345. 356. 518. 481.5 429. 377.5 499.2 415.6 46.5 Change, % (1.) (4.1) (34.1) (29.1) (2.4) (9.5) (31.6) (17.8) (16.) MEG 141.5 77.5 58.5 9.5 99. 314. 175. 16. 244.7 61.9 Change, % 82.6 141.9 56.4 42.9 (54.9) (19.1) (11.5) (42.2) 128.6 PVC 36.5 3. 46. 143. 156.5 69. 52.5 271.9 131.7 46.7 Change, % 21.7 (2.7) (74.5) (76.7) (47.1) (3.5) (86.6) (72.3) (21.8) PP 441.5 435. 436. 553. 496.5 624. 392.5 58.9 619.3 457.6 Change, % 1.5 1.3 (2.2) (11.1) (29.2) 12.5 (24.) (28.7) (3.5) 2-EH 696.5 665. 641. 783. 751.5 864. 492.5 976.6 859.9 652.2 Change, % 4.7 8.7 (11.) (7.3) (19.4) 41.4 (28.7) (19.) 6.8 ABS 941.5 97. 1,21. 1,43. 1,71.5 1,184. 992.5 1,21. 1,29.5 1,74.1 Change, % (2.9) (7.8) (9.7) (12.1) (2.5) (5.1) (22.2) (22.2) (12.3) AN 991.5. 941. 938. 999. 1,179. 917.5 1,47.2 1,44.4 1,49. Change, % (.8) 5.4 5.7 (.8) (15.9) 8.1 (32.6) (29.4) (5.5) PO 529. 5. 491. 55.5 521.5 524. 44. 1,171.9 1,37.3 988.5 Change, % 5.8 7.7 4.6 1.4 1. 2.2 (54.9) (59.5) (46.5) Caustic Change, % PX 586.5 57.5 483.5 515.5 581.5 741.5 58. 496.3 478.9 485.9 Change, % 15.6 21.3 13.8.9 (2.9) 1.1 18.2 22.5 2.7 Caprolactam 711.5 75. 686. 773. 781.5 1,59. 622.5 1,225.7 1,161.3 717. Change, %.9 3.7 (8.) (9.) (32.8) 14.3 (42.) (38.7) (.8) BPA 1,391.5 1,345. 1,336. 1,563. 1,626.5 2,639. 1,662.5 1,872.8 2,394.3 1,632.7 Change, % 3.5 4.2 (11.) (14.4) (47.3) (16.3) (25.7) (41.9) (14.8) PTA 124. 77.5 73.5 178. 229. 359. 21. 235.1 331.3 157.4 Change, % 6. 68.7 (3.3) (45.9) (65.5) (41.) (47.3) (62.6) (21.2) 자료 : Cischem, Platts, SK증권참고 : Spread는 Naphtha spread로일괄적용
Global peers Currency 7/1 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD MKT CAP PER PBR EV/EBITDA (mil USD) 11 12E 11 12E 11 12E Petrochemical Dow Chemical USD 31.1 (3.5) 2.7 3.2 (7.4) (11.2) 1. 8.2 37,297 11.8 15.9 1.6 1.7 7.2 8. Du Pont USD 51.7 (1.1) 2.1 2.1 1.2 (1.7) 9.7 12.9 48,91 13.2 12.6 4.3 4.4 9. 8.2 Eastman USD 57.8 (1.5) 1. 3.7 17.1 12.2 51.5 47.9 7,986 12.4 11. 4.3 3.1 6.7 5.3 BASF EUR 66.6.3 3.8 7.3 16.5 (1.4) 4.2 23.6 8,31 1.7 12.2 2.6 2.3 6.4 6.1 Akzo Nobel EUR 48.9 1.4 2.9 9. 29.2 9.7 48. 3.8 15,266 17. 15.1 1.2 1.2 8.3 7.8 Arkema EUR 75. (1.2) 5. 8.5 37.8 1.2 43.6 37.1 6,164 8.7 1. 1.9 1.9 5.6 5.9 Lanxess EUR 48.9 1.4 2.9 9. 29.2 9.7 48. 3.8 7,284 1.3 9.6 2.6 2.2 6.5 6. Sumitomo Chemical JPY 222.. 7.8.5 (1.8) (39.) (31.1) (21.) 4,669 16.4 344.2.7.7 6.4 8.2 Mitsubishi Chemical JPY 323.. 8. (4.7) (6.9) (28.1) (41.6) (23.8) 6,18 5.8 17..6.6 4.8 6.2 Shin-Etsu Chemical JPY 4,565. 5.3 3.3 6.9 (2.9) 15. 2.4 25,58 17.5 19.2 1.3 1.3 6.9 6.9 Asahi Kasei JPY 414.. 2.5 (3.9). (18.2) (15.7) (1.8) 7,376 9.7 1.6.9.8 4.2 4.7 JSR JPY 1,379. 2.1 (.6) 2.4 (19.7) (3.) (2.9) 4,482 12.9 12.5 1.3 1.2 4.7 4.6 Nitto Denko JPY 3,885. 3.9 4.3 18.4 14.4 18.3 41.1 8,575 11.2 2.4 1.5 1.5 4.2 5.6 SABIC SAR 94.3 (.3) 4.1 3.3 2.7 (11.1) 1.1 (1.6) 75,396 9.2 1.4 2. 1.9 6.2 6.6 Yansab SAR 47.6.2 4.4 2.1 6. (8.5) 3.9 9.2 7,14 8.3 9.3 2.6 2.1 7.6 8.2 Formosa Plastics TWD 85.1.1 2.9 2.9 7.2 (2.3) 2.5 5.3 17,769 13.8 21.6 2. 2.2 13.5 18.7 Formosa Fiber TWD 79..1 3.5 (3.1) (.3) (6.6) (5.3) (1.1) 15,335 12.5 23.8 1.7 1.8 12.8 2.2 Nan Ya Plastics TWD 58..9 4.9 (.9) 2.7 (11.5) (13.4) (3.5) 15,536 16.5 31. 1.6 1.7 16.5 22.7 Sinopec Shanghai CNY 5.3 (2.7) (3.3) 1.1 (11.1) (15.) (29.9) (1.8) 4,73 19.8-2. 2.4 1.9 - Reliance INR 873.8 3.8 1.3 7.1 18.5 13.8 5.8 26.1 53,9 13.7 13.7 1.8 1.6 8.1 8.7 Industries Qatar QAR 143. (.2) 3.2 3.8 7. 6. 13.5 7.5 21,61 9.6 9.3 3.1 2.6 9. 8.5 PTT Chemical THB 65.3 2.4 7.4 1.6 11.5 (1.) - 7. 9,54 9.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 7.3 7.8 Petronas MYR 6.5. 4. (.2) (.5) (3.1) 6. 5.3 17,153-13.6-2.4-7.3 LG화학 KRW 332, 1.8 6.8 1.2 13.9 (9.8) (3.2) 4.6 19,685 1.2 12.4 2.3-6.1 - 호남석유화학 KRW 264, 2.7 6..6 11.2 (15.7) (3.5) (11.4) 7,525 7.4 1.9 1.5 1.3 5.8 5.7 한화케미칼 KRW 22,1.5 4.2.7 4.7 (16.8) (26.9) (1.2) 2,774 5.6 12.2.9-5.9 - 금호석유화학 KRW 125, 4.6 1.6. 5. (16.7) (3.4) (25.4) 3,47 5.8 1.4 - - - - SKC KRW 44,85 (1.) 2. (5.5) 3.5 (3.2) 4.2 17.7 1,453 8.7 11.1 1.4 1.4 8.7 8.9 국도화학 KRW 49,8 (2.9) 2.2 1.8 1.4.3 6.2 (.2) 259 8.7 7.5 1..9 7.6 6.5 Averege.3 4.4 1.7 6. (7.8) (1.2) 4.9 11.3 25.6 1.8 1.8 7.7 8.5 Refinery Exxon Mobil USD 91.9 (.4) 2.7 4. 8.8 6.9 23.3 8.4 424,251 1.9 12. 2.7 2.6 4.8 5. BP GBP 451.5.3 3.1 (.6) 5.8 (6.2) 9.2 (2.) 139,682 6.5 8. 1.2 1.2 3.9 4.5 Shell USD 2,255 (.3) 1. (.1) 4.6.9 7.7 (4.9) 235,31 8.8 8.6 1.4 1.2 4.1 4.2 Chevron USD 117.1 (.1) 2.8 4. 12.6 8.6 17.6 1.1 229,845 8.7 9.2 1.9 1.7 3.7 3.8 Total EUR 41.4 (1.) 2.4 2.6 17.3 (.4) 24.4 4.9 128,54 8. 7.8 1.4 1.3 3.7 3.6 Valero USD 32. (5.1).1 11.3 39.1 18.1 44.4 52.2 17,673 8.1 8. 1.1 1. 4.3 4.3 Sinopec CNY 6. (2.4) (3.7) (3.2) (6.7) (2.3) (16.8) (16.6) 81,8 6.7 8.4 1.1 1. 4.7 4.8 Petrochina CNY 8.9 (.7) (1.1) (.8) (3.3) (12.) (8.3) (8.7) 254,836 11.4 12. 1.6 1.5 6.1 6.2 CNOOC CNY 16.6 (1.5) (2.5) (.8) (1.2) (7.) 2.3 14.8 1,463 17.4 15.1 2.5 2.3 1.1 9.3 Formosa Petrochem TWD 89.7 (.6) 6.4 (.3) 8.3 (3.5) 5.5 (4.4) 29,149 36.7 62.7 3.6 3.9 18.1 23.3 SK이노베이션 KRW 176,. 4.8 2.3 18.9 2.9 4.5 23.9 14,56 6.1 9.7 1.2-4.2 - S-Oil KRW 11,.5 2.3 (.5) 15.3 (6.8) (12.) 1. 11,8 9.7 12.5 2.4 2.2 7.9 7.7 GS KRW 68,8 (.9) 2.4 4.4 22.4 6.3.1 35.7 5,719 6.9 1.2 1.1 1. 6.6 - Averege (.9) 1.6 1.7 1.9 (1.) 9.2 9.5 11.2 14.2 1.8 1.7 6.3 7. PV WACKER EUR 54.7 (1.2) 1..5 (.6) (19.9) (38.9) (12.) 3,741 6.7 19.1 1. 1.1 2.9 4. GCL-Poly HKD 1.3 (5.2) 9.4 8.5 (29.7) (45.8) (56.3) (41.) 2,555 3.8 -.9.9 5.5 11.7 REC NOK 2. 11.4 7.6 1.6 (14.1) (34.4) (68.1) (31.5) 737 - -.2.4 2.7 8.8 MEMC USD 3.2 (.6) 2.6 13.9 46.3 (16.9) (54.8) (19.) 737 13.4 -.3 1.6 8.1 1.7 Suntech USD.9 6.6 24.8 (5.4) (55.) (71.1) (74.8) (58.1) 167 - -.1.3 24.7 - JA Solar USD.8 1.2 3.7 (15.3) (25.) (52.8) (64.3) (37.3) 143 - -.2.2 4.9 - Trina Solar USD 4.4 (1.4) 6.6 (9.3) (34.6) (42.9) (54.5) (34.6) 356 145.7 -.3.3 6.8 - LDK Solar USD 1.2 (3.2) (2.4) (1.4) (42.) (71.9) (76.) (71.4) 174 - -.2.3 13.5 13.5 Yingli USD 1.8 (2.7) 3.5 (6.3) (38.3) (53.5) (53.4) (52.9) 282 11. -.2.4 8.4 - First Solar USD 23.2 (5.6) 11.8 9.3 52.6 (11.7) (72.9) (31.2) 2,21 4. 5.2.5.6 2.3 3.6 한화솔라원 USD 1.1. (.9) 2.9 (14.6) (31.8) (67.2) 6.8 88 - -.1.1 92. - OCI KRW 197,. 4. (3.9) (8.8) (19.8) (28.1) (1.3) 4,24 4.7 9.3 1.4-3.4 - Averege (.3) 5.8 (2.7) (15.4) (4.1) (57.6) (31.4) 27.1 11.2.4.6 82.1 8.7 * Bloomberg 기준 / valuation multiple 또한 Bloomberg consensus 기준임