1. News Summary (3 page) 213 년 1 월 3 일 News WTI comment 미국원유재고증가전망에하락 Conclusion Headline 한전, 8 천 kwh 급대용량 ESS 운전개시중대형 2 차전지중 ESS 의발전가능성점차가시화 News 1. - - News 2. - - News 3. - - News 4. - - News 5. - - 2. Prices Summary (4~6 page) Daily Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Weekly Update Unit Price 1W 1M 3M 12M Refinery % % % % % Petrochemical % % % % WTI $/bbl 98.2 (.6).4 (4.1) (6.5) 14.9 Ethylene 1/28 $/t 1,445 (.3) 1.8 16.5 9.9 Dubai $/bbl 15.9 1.1 (.6) 2.3 1.6 (.5) Propylene 1/28 $/t 1,375 (.7) (1.8) 7.4 11.3 Gasoline $/bbl 114.3 1.1 (.7) (.) (1.7) (2.2) Benzene 1/28 $/t 1,26 (1.6) (4.).6 (3.1) Diesel $/bbl 124.3 1.5. 2.3 1.8 (2.3) Toluene 1/28 $/t 1,145 (.9) (2.3) (1.1) (8.4) Complex margin $/bbl 6.2.2.5 (.7) (.3) (2.1) Xylene 1/28 $/t 1,2 (.8) (.4) 2.1 (1.8) 1M lagging $/bbl 8.6 2.9 2. 9.8 (2.5) 4.4 PP 1/28 $/t 1,515 (.3). 3.8 1.2 Petrochemical % % % % % PVC 1/28 $/t 995 (1.5) (3.9) (2.) 3.1 Naphtha $/t 929 1.3 (.5) 1.7 4.4 (1.7) ABS 1/28 $/t 1,93 (.8) (.3) (.3) (.5) Butadiene $/t 1,69.. 7. 87.8 (4.5) AN 1/28 $/t 1,88..8 5. 3.3 HDPE $/t 1,525.3.7 2.7 4.5 15.1 SM 1/28 $/t 1,665 (3.6) (8.) (9.4) 5.7 MEG $/t 1,14.4 (3.2) (3.8) (5.4) (4.8) BPA 1/28 $/t 1,65 (.3) (2.1) (.3) (3.3) PX $/t 1,42 (.3) 1.4 (4.2) (2.1) (9.2) Caustic 1/28 $/t 323... (21.3) SM $/t 1,637.6 1.7 (6.8) (8.3) 6.8 2-EH 1/28 $/t 1,425 (.3).4 (1.) (14.9) Commodity % % % % % Caprolactam 1/28 $/t 2,42 (.2). 3.4 1.5 Natural Gas $/mmbtu 3.63 (.9) (2.1) (3.6) (2.8) (14.6) Solar % % % % Natural rubber $/t 2,29. (3.) (1.7) 5.5 (18.8) Polysilicon 1/23 $/kg 17.9 (.1) (1.4) 7.6 4.3 Cotton C/lbs 78.3 (.4) (5.) (9.5) (8.) 2.4 Module 1/23 $/W.7.1.1 (.1) 4.3 * 참고 : 정제마진의변동률은 % 가아닌 $/bbl 임 3. Global Peers Summary (7 page) Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Petrochemical % % % % % Refinery % % % % % Dow Chem USD 39.5.9 (5.) 1.1 12.7 33.4 Valero USD 4.2 1.9 (.6) 17.2 12.3 51.6 BASF EUR 76..5 2.6 6.2 13.7 19.5 Conoco Phillips USD 74.3.6 1.5 5.7 14.1 29.7 Formosa Pla. TWD 79.4.6 (.5) 2.5 4.7 5.5 Formosa Pet. TWD 8.5.6 (.6) 1. 1.5 (3.6) Shin-Etsu JPY 5,48 (.7) (7.3) (1.9) (11.8) 18.6 Tesoro USD 47.3.3 (4.5) 5.7 (14.) 23.3 SABIC SAR 99. (2.2) (4.3) 2.9 6.5 11.9 Marathon Pet. USD 7.8 (.5) (2.3) 9.1 (2.) 27.4 Solar GCL HKD 2.3 (2.9) (9.8) 6.9 16.1 63.8 Exxon Mobil USD 88.9.8 1.1 2.3 (5.4) (1.9) Wacker EUR 69.5 (.1) (4.) (3.7).2 61.4 BP GBP 477.5 5.6 6.6 8.3 2.2 12.4 Yingli USD 6.5 2.7 (17.3) (4.2) 59.3 279.4 Shell EUR 2,169 1.5 3.2 6.4 (1.9) 3. HSOL USD 4.4 7.5 (19.4) 4.9 26. 321.6 Petrochina CNY 7.6.8 (2.4) (2.9) (3.4) (12.6) 4. Coverage Summary 1/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M 투자의견 TP % P/E P/B KOSPI 2,52.2 (.2) 2. 7.2 5.7 8.5 * 추정치는 12M fwd 기준임 KOSPI 화학 4,182.9 (.7).4 6.9 1.6 2. * 모든 coverage 업체의실적은연결기준임 LG 화학 33, 1.3 (1.1) (5.) 7.4 21. 5. 매수 37, 22.1 11.86 1.75 롯데케미칼 212,5 4.9 (2.3) 8.7 25. 33.2 (2.7) 매수 23, 8.2 12.34 1.6 한화케미칼 23,5 3.5 (2.3) 13.8 25. 45.1 3.9 매수 23, (2.1) 17.38.83 금호석유화학 15,5.5 (5.4) 4.5 17.5 14.1 1.4 매수 12, 13.7 11.91 2.3 OCI 196,5 3.1 (7.1) 12. 18. 39.9 29.3 매수 2, 1.8 19.45 1.75 SKC 32,45 1.7 (3.9) 3.2 11.1 2.2 (29.1) 매수 4, 23.3 9.65 1.1 국도화학 5,7 1.9 2. (2.5) (2.9) (3.8) 21.9 매수 7, 38.1 8.15.75 SK 이노베이션 153, 1. (3.2) 3..7 4.8 (2.9) 매수 17, 11.1 9.27.87 S-Oil 78,1. (3.8) (1.1) 3.4 (1.9) (18.4) 매수 9, 15.2 12.78 1.58 GS 59,3.5 (2.) 3.7 7.4 12.7 (1.) 매수 65, 9.6 9.7.84 작성자 ( 손지우 ) 는본조사분석자료에게재된내용들이본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이신의성실하게작성되었음을확인합니다. 본보고서에언급된종목의경우당사조사분석담당자는본인의담당종목을보유하고있지않습니다. 본보고서는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공된사실이없습니다. 당사는본보고서의발간시점에해당종목을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다. E&P
Key Chart KOSPI/KOSPI 화학 WTI/Dubai (p) 5,5 KOSPI( 우 ) KOSPI 화학 ( 좌 ) (p) 2,1 ($/bbl) 13 WTI Dubai 5, 4,5 2, 1,9 12 11 1 4, 3,5 1,8 9 8 3, 11/12 12/4 12/7 12/1 13/1 13/4 13/7 1,7 13/1 7 11/11 12/3 12/7 12/11 13/3 13/7 Complex & 1M lagging margin Polysilicon & Module prices ($/bbl) 25 1M lagging margin 복합정제마진 ($/kg) 5 Polysilicon( 좌 ) Module( 우 ) ($/W) 1.2 2 15 1 5 4 3 1.1 1..9 (5) 2.8.7 (1) 11/1 12/2 12/6 12/1 13/2 13/6 Naphtha/Ethylene/Propylene prices 1 11/1 12/4 12/9 13/3 13/8 Butadiene price & 1M lagging naphtha spread.6 1,6 Naphtha Ethylene Propylene 4, 1M lagging spread( 우 ) Butadiene( 좌 ) 3, 1,4 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,2 2,5 1,5 2, 8 1,5 5 6 11/1 11/12 12/2 12/4 12/5 12/7 12/9 12/11 13/1 13/3 13/4 13/6 13/8 13/1 HDPE price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1M lagging spread( 우 ) HDPE( 좌 ) 1,55 65 1,5 55 1,45 1,4 45 1,35 35 1,3 1,25 25 PVC price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 5 (5) MEG price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1M lagging spread( 우 ) MEG( 좌 ) 1,25 4 1,2 3 1,15 1,1 2 1,5 1 95 9 (1) 85 8 (2) PX price & 1M lagging naphtha spread 1,1 1M lagging spread( 우 ) PVC( 좌 ) 3 1,8 1M lagging spread( 우 ) PX( 좌 ) 8 1,5 2 1,6 7 6 95 1 5 9 85 1,4 4 3 8 (1) 1,2 2 자료 : Bloomberg, Cischem, Petronet, Platts, Pvinsights, SK 증권 참고 : 상기데이터는일괄적으로과거 2 년치적용
News Comment Headline ( 출처 : EBN 화학정보 ) WTI Comment ( 출처 : 연합뉴스 ) 한전, 8 천 kwh 급대용량 ESS 운전개시미국원유재고증가전망에하락 중대형 2 차전지중 ESS 의발전가능성점차가시화상승 요인 1) 제주도조천변전소 : 한전전력망에 ESS 도입하기위해실증목적설비임 2) 8천kwh의리튬이온배터리와 4천kwh의전력변환장치및 ESS 운용시스템 3) 4천kw로운전했을때최대 2시간동안사용할수있음 하락 미국전주원유재고 35만bbl 증대예측 4) 이미 14년 ~17년총 5만kw의 ESS를구축할계획발표한바있음 요인 미국 1월소비자신뢰지수 6개월만에최저치 5) 중대형 2차전지중 ESS의발전가능성점차가시화 Issue 1 Issue 2 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5) Issue 3 Issue 4 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Issue 5 Issue 6 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 4) 5) 5)
Refining Price Data Daily Price 1/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 211avg. 212avg. 213acc. Crude Oil WTI 98.2 98.8 97.8 12.4 15.1 94. 85.5 99.2 94.9 94.1 98.4 Change, % (.6).4 (4.1) (6.5) 4.5 14.9 (1.) 3.5 4.4 (.2) Dubai 15.9 14.8 16.6 13.6 14.3 97.9 16.4 14.9 15.8 18.9 15. Change, % 1.1 (.6) 2.3 1.6 8.2 (.5) 1..1 (2.7).9 Crude Oil Gasoline( 휘발유 ) 114.3 113.1 115.2 114.4 116.3 19.1 116.8 116.9 12.6 123.3 119.6 Product Change, % 1.1 (.7) (.) (1.7) 4.7 (2.2) (2.2) (5.2) (7.3) (4.4) Kerosene( 등유 ) 123.3 121.8 124. 12.8 121.6 111.8 127.3 121.7 125.4 126.7 122.6 Change, % 1.2 (.5) 2. 1.4 1.2 (3.2) 1.3 (1.7) (2.7).6 Diesel( 경유 ) 124.3 122.5 124.3 121.5 122.1 112.1 127.2 124.2 125.9 128. 123. Change, % 1.5. 2.3 1.8 1.9 (2.3).1 (1.3) (2.9) 1. Bunker-C 95.5 94.8 94.8 94.6 92.8 93.8 97.9 13.6 99.4 13.3 95.5 Change, %.8.8 1. 2.9 1.8 (2.4) (7.8) (3.8) (7.5).1 Naphtha 11.6 1.2 12.1 98. 96.9 89.6 13.7 1. 13.2 13.4 1.1 Change, % 1.4 (.4) 3.7 4.9 13.4 (2.) 1.7 (1.5) (1.8) 1.5 Dubai Gasoline( 휘발유 ) 8.4 8.3 8.6 1.8 12. 11.3 1.4 12. 14.7 14.4 14.5 Spread Change. (.2) (2.4) (3.6) (2.9) (2.) (3.6) (6.4) (6.) (6.1) Kerosene( 등유 ) 17.4 17.1 17.4 17.2 17.3 14. 2.9 16.8 19.6 17.8 17.5 Change.3 (.).1.1 3.4 (3.5).6 (2.2) (.5) (.2) Diesel( 경유 ) 18.4 17.7 17.7 17.9 17.8 14.2 2.8 19.3 2.1 19.1 18. Change.6.7.4.6 4.1 (2.4) (1.) (1.7) (.8).4 Bunker-C (1.4) (1.) (11.8) (9.) (11.5) (4.) (8.5) (1.3) (6.5) (5.6) (9.6) Change (.4) 1.4 (1.4) 1.1 (6.4) (1.8) (9.1) (3.9) (4.8) (.8) Naphtha (4.3) (4.6) (4.5) (5.6) (7.4) (8.3) (2.8) (4.9) (2.6) (5.4) (4.9) Change.3.2 1.3 3.1 4. (1.6).6 (1.7) 1.1.6 Refining Simple( 단순 ) (.5) (.5) (1.3).3 (.8) 1.5 1.6 4.3 2.8 2.6.6 Margin Change (.).8 (.8).3 (1.9) (2.1) (4.8) (3.2) (3.) (1.) Complex( 복합 ) 6.2 6. 5.7 6.9 6.5 6.5 8.3 9.5 9.6 9.1 7.9 Change.2.5 (.7) (.3) (.3) (2.1) (3.3) (3.4) (2.9) (1.6) Complex(lagging) 8.6 5.7 6.5 (1.3) 11.1 (3.6) 4.2 6.9 1.5 9.1 7.8 Change 2.9 2. 9.8 (2.5) 12.2 4.4 1.7 (2.) (.5).8 자료 : Petronet, SK 증권 참고 1) Crude Oil 가격은현물 (spot) 기준으로선물 (future) 가격과다를수있음 참고 2) Gasoline 은 95RON, 경유는 L/P.5%, Bunker-C 는 38cst/4.% 기준임
Petrochemical Price Data Daily Price 1/29 1/28 1/25 1/24 1/23 1/22 1/21 1/18 1/17 1/16 Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 929.1 917.6 912. 912.5 924.1 933.8 934.1 93.6 937.8 928. Ethylene CFR SE Asia 1,43. 1,435. 1,435. 1,46. 1,46. 1,465. 1,465. 1,465. 1,465. 1,47. Propylene FOB Korea 1,39. 1,39. 1,39. 1,39. 1,395. 1,395. 1,395. 1,39. 1,39. 1,39. Butadiene FOB Korea 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,6. 1,6. HDPE CFR FE Asia 1,525. 1,52. 1,515. 1,52. 1,52. 1,515. 1,515. 1,515. 1,515. 1,525. LDPE CFR FE Asia 1,655. 1,655. 1,645. 1,65. 1,65. 1,65. 1,65. 1,65. 1,64. 1,64. LLDPE CFR FE Asia 1,535. 1,525. 1,515. 1,52. 1,52. 1,51. 1,515. 1,515. 1,515. 1,53. MEG CFR China 1,14. 1,1. 1,11. 1,34. 1,33. 1,47. 1,61. 1,69. 1,75. 1,92. PP CFR FE Asia 1,55. 1,55. 1,51. 1,51. 1,51. 1,51. 1,51. 1,515. 1,52. 1,52. PX CFR China 1,41.5 1,45.5 1,399.5 1,385. 1,383. 1,381.5 1,377.5 1,392.5 1,415.5 1,442.5 PTA CFR China 1,1. 1,1. 1,1. 1,3. 1,2. 1,1. 996. 1,2. 1,5. 1,22. Benzene FOB Korea 1,249.5 1,249.5 1,254.5 1,228. 1,229.5 1,213. 1,236. 1,239.5 1,248.5 1,254. Toluene FOB Korea 1,93.5 1,92.5 1,94.5 1,88. 1,84. 1,77.5 1,89.5 1,95.5 1,12.5 1,112.5 Xylene FOB Korea 1,189.5 1,187. 1,186. 1,178. 1,165. 1,161.5 1,165. 1,17. 1,218. 1,237. SM FOB Korea 1,637. 1,627.5 1,635.5 1,631.5 1,615.5 1,69. 1,643.5 1,649. 1,65.5 1,675. Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 211avg. 212avg. 213acc. Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 91.5 93.5 913. 893. 856. 945. 912.5 937.2 944.5 914.9 Change, % (2.1) (.3) 2. 6.4 (3.7) (.2) (2.8) (3.6) (.5) Ethylene CFR SE Asia 1,445. 1,45. 1,42. 1,24. 1,3. 1,315. 1,1. 1,186.7 1,228.4 1,338. Change, % (.3) 1.8 16.5 11.2 9.9 31.4 21.8 17.6 8. Propylene CFR SE Asia 1,375. 1,385. 1,4. 1,28. 1,295. 1,235. 1,21. 1,385.9 1,267.4 1,321.9 Change, % (.7) (1.8) 7.4 6.2 11.3 13.6 (.8) 8.5 4. Butadiene CFR SE Asia 1,67. 1,645. 1,465. 9. 1,115. 1,75. 2,575. 2,921.7 2,418. 1,425.6 Change, % 1.5 14. 85.6 49.8 (4.6) (35.1) (42.8) (3.9) 17.1 Benzene CFR SE Asia 1,26. 1,28. 1,312.5 1,252.5 1,24. 1,3. 1,75. 1,11.4 1,227.5 1,331.3 Change, % (1.6) (4.).6 1.6 (3.1) 17.2 14.4 2.6 (5.4) Toluene CFR SE Asia 1,145. 1,155.5 1,172.5 1,157.5 1,85. 1,25. 1,145. 1,14.1 1,214.6 1,27.6 Change, % (.9) (2.3) (1.1) 5.5 (8.4). 3.7 (5.7) (5.2) Xylene CFR SE Asia 1,2. 1,21. 1,25. 1,175. 1,95. 1,222.5 1,215. 1,153.3 1,198.8 1,199.7 Change, % (.8) (.4) 2.1 9.6 (1.8) (1.2) 4..1. Spread Ethylene -Naphtha 534.5 519.5 57. 347. 444. 37. 187.5 249.6 283.9 423. Change, % 2.9 5.4 54. 2.4 44.5 185.1 114.2 88.3 26.3 Propylene -Naphtha 464.5 454.5 487. 387. 439. 29. 297.5 448.8 322.9 47. Change, % 2.2 (4.6) 2. 5.8 6.2 56.1 3.5 43.9 14.1 Butadiene -Naphtha 759.5 714.5 552. 7. 259. 85. 1,662.5 1,984.5 1,473.5 51.7 Change, % 6.3 37.6 1,75. 193.2 (5.7) (54.3) (61.7) (48.5) 48.7 Benzene -Naphtha 349.5 349.5 399.5 359.5 384. 355. 162.5 164.2 283. 416.3 Change, %. (12.5) (2.8) (9.) (1.5) 115.1 112.9 23.5 (16.1) Toluene -Naphtha 234.5 225. 259.5 264.5 229. 35. 232.5 166.9 27.1 292.7 Change, % 4.2 (9.6) (11.3) 2.4 (23.1).9 4.5 (13.2) (19.9) Xylene -Naphtha 289.5 279.5 292. 282. 239. 277.5 32.5 216.2 254.3 284.8 Change, % 3.6 (.9) 2.7 21.1 4.3 (4.3) 33.9 13.8 1.7 자료 : Cischem, Platts, Bloomberg, SK증권 참고 : Spread는 Polymer와 Naphtha의가격차이임
Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 211avg. 212avg. 213acc. Spot Price HDPE CFR SE Asia 1,51. 1,51. 1,48. 1,47. 1,435. 1,34. 1,29. 1,352.8 1,35.4 1,455.6 Change, %. 2. 2.7 5.2 12.7 17.1 11.6 11.8 3.7 MEG CFR SE Asia 1,17.5 1,72.5 1,57.5 1,72.5 937.5 1,9. 1,87.5 1,181.9 1,27.6 1,58.1 Change, % (5.1) (3.8) (5.1) 8.5 (6.7) (6.4) (13.9) (1.) (3.8) PVC CFR SE Asia 995. 1,1. 1,35. 1,15. 1,2. 965. 965. 1,68.9 985.6 1,16.6 Change, % (1.5) (3.9) (2.) (2.5) 3.1 3.1 (6.9) 1. (2.1) PP CFR SE Asia 1,515. 1,52. 1,515. 1,46. 1,47. 1,375. 1,35. 1,556.4 1,46.6 1,478.1 Change, % (.3). 3.8 3.1 1.2 16.1 (2.7) 7.7 2.5 2-EH CFR Korea 1,425. 1,43. 1,42. 1,44. 1,35. 1,675. 1,45. 1,797.1 1,66.4 1,483.9 Change, % (.3).4 (1.) 5.6 (14.9) 1.4 (2.7) (11.3) (4.) ABS CFR SE Asia 1,93. 1,945. 1,935. 1,935. 1,93. 1,94. 1,95. 2,146.6 1,994.5 1,96.2 Change, % (.8) (.3) (.3). (.5) 1.3 (1.1) (3.2) (1.5) AN CFR SE Asia 1,88. 1,88. 1,865. 1,79. 1,77. 1,82. 1,83. 2,341.6 1,946.7 1,845.2 Change, %..8 5. 6.2 3.3 2.7 (19.7) (3.4) 1.9 SM CFR SE Asia 1,665. 1,727.5 1,81. 1,837.5 1,722.5 1,575. 1,352.5 2,244.4 1,915.1 1,977.1 Change, % (3.6) (8.) (9.4) (3.3) 5.7 23.1 (25.8) (13.1) (15.8) Caustic FOB NEA 322.5 322.5 322.5 322.5 342.5 41. 465. 391.1 439.9 323.2 Change, %... (5.8) (21.3) (3.6) (17.5) (26.7) (.2) PX CFR SE Asia 1,415. 1,41. 1,482.5 1,455. 1,432.5 1,552.5 1,492.5 1,416.1 1,481.8 1,748.8 Change, %.4 (4.6) (2.7) (1.2) (8.9) (5.2) (.1) (4.5) (19.1) BPA CFR Korea 1,65. 1,61. 1,64. 1,61. 1,595. 1,66. 1,535. 2,98.5 1,675.9 1,733.5 Change, % (.3) (2.1) (.3).6 (3.3) 4.6 (23.5) (4.2) (7.4) Caprolactam CFR SE Asia 2,42. 2,425. 2,42. 2,34. 2,41. 2,385. 2,575. 3,331.5 2,59.7 2,397.5 Change, % (.2). 3.4.4 1.5 (6.) (27.4) (3.6).9 PTA CFR SE Asia 1,5. 1,5. 1,57.5 1,92.5 1,67.5 1,135. 1,122.5 1,268.4 1,13.1 1,93. Change, %. (5.) (8.) (5.9) (11.5) (1.5) (2.8) (8.9) (8.1) Spread HDPE 599.5 579.5 567. 577. 579. 395. 377.5 415.6 45.8 54.7 Change, % 3.5 5.7 3.9 3.5 51.8 58.8 44.2 47.7 1.9 MEG 17. 142. 144.5 179.5 81.5 145. 175. 244.7 83. 143.2 Change, % (24.6) (26.) (4.4) 31.3 (26.2) (38.9) (56.3) 28.9 (25.3) PVC 84.5 79.5 122. 122. 164. 2. 52.5 131.7 41.1 11.7 Change, % 6.3 (3.7) (3.7) (48.5) 322.5 61. (35.8) 15.5 (16.9) PP 64.5 589.5 62. 567. 614. 43. 392.5 619.3 462.1 563.2 Change, % 2.5.4 6.6 (1.5) 4.6 54. (2.4) 3.8 7.3 2-EH 514.5 499.5 57. 547. 494. 73. 492.5 859.9 661.9 569. Change, % 3. 1.5 (5.9) 4.1 (29.5) 4.5 (4.2) (22.3) (9.6) ABS 1,19.5 1,14.5 1,22. 1,42. 1,74. 995. 992.5 1,29.5 1,5. 1,45.3 Change, %.5 (.2) (2.2) (5.1) 2.5 2.7 (15.7) (2.9) (2.5) AN 969.5 949.5 952. 897. 914. 875. 917.5 1,44.4 1,2.2 93.3 Change, % 2.1 1.8 8.1 6.1 1.8 5.7 (31.) (3.3) 4.2 PO 754.5 797. 897. 944.5 866.5 63. 44. 1,37.3 97.6 1,62.2 Change, % (5.3) (15.9) (2.1) (12.9) 19.8 71.5 (42.3) (22.3) (29.) Caustic Change, % PX 54.5 479.5 569.5 562. 576.5 67.5 58. 478.9 537.2 833.8 Change, % 5.2 (11.4) (1.2) (12.5) (17.) (13.) 5.3 (6.1) (39.5) Caprolactam 694.5 679.5 727. 717. 739. 715. 622.5 1,161.3 731.4 818.6 Change, % 2.2 (4.5) (3.1) (6.) (2.9) 11.6 (4.2) (5.) (15.2) BPA 1,59.5 1,494.5 1,57. 1,447. 1,554. 1,44. 1,662.5 2,394.3 1,565.2 1,482.6 Change, % 1..2 4.3 (2.9) 4.8 (9.2) (37.) (3.6) 1.8 PTA 94.5 74.5 144.5 199.5 211.5 19. 21. 331.3 158.6 178.1 Change, % 26.8 (34.6) (52.6) (55.3) (5.3) (55.) (71.5) (4.4) (46.9) 자료 : Cischem, Platts, SK증권참고 : Spread는 Naphtha spread로일괄적용
Global peers Currency 1/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD MKT CAP PER PBR EV/EBITDA (mil USD) 12 13E 12 13E 12 13E Petrochemical Dow Chemical USD 39.5.9 (5.) 1.1 12.7 16.5 33.4 22.1 47,755 2.5 17.2 2.1 2.1 8.9 8.2 Du Pont USD 61.5 (.1) 2.2 4.2 6.8 13.6 36.1 36.7 56,937 18.7 16. 5.6 4.1 9.8 1.2 Eastman USD 78.4 2.9 (5.) 1. 4.5 14.9 3.3 15.3 12,74 14.6 12.3 4.1 3.1 12.5 9.8 BASF EUR 76..5 2.6 6.2 13.7 6.6 19.5 6.8 96,14 14. 14.2 2.7 2.6 7.2 6.8 Arkema EUR 83.5.3 (.9).1 1.6 17.8 17.2 5.4 7,231 11.4 13.3 2.1 2.2 6.2 6.5 Lanxess EUR 51.2 (1.) (.1) 5.2 6. (6.1) (18.7) (22.7) 5,856 7.7 33.4 1.7 1.8 5.6 5.3 Mitsubishi Chemical JPY 454. (1.5) (1.1) (3.4) (.4) (5.) 47.9 4.4 6,966 23.9 29.7.9.9 5.7 7.3 Shin-Etsu Chemical JPY 5,48. (.7) (7.3) (1.9) (11.8) (17.6) 18.6 4.8 24,119 23. 21. 1.6 1.5 7.7 7.7 SABIC SAR 99. (2.2) (4.3) 2.9 6.5 9.1 11.9 9.7 79,194 11.8 11.2 2. 1.9 5.9 6.8 Yansab SAR 63.3 (1.2) (4.2) 5.4 1. 24. 44.7 31.2 9,487 15.1 12.5 2.8 2.4 8.8 1.8 Formosa Plastics TWD 79.4.6 (.5) 2.5 4.7 16.3 5.5 5.1 17,17 34.6 23. 2.2 2.1 13.7 35.6 Reliance INR 896.8.7 (.8) 6.8 1.3 13.1 1.6 6.7 47,137 14.1 13.6 1.7 1.5 8.6 9.3 Industries Qatar QAR 154.9 1.1 2.4 3.9 (4.9) (8.2) 14.4 9.9 25,741 1.3 1.8 3. 2.7 1. 8.7 PTT Chemical THB 78.5 1.3 1.3 5.7 7.2 9. 33.1 12.1 11,399 11.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 7.5 7.9 Petronas MYR 7.2..6 5.1 8.3 1.2 11.4 11.7 18,186 15.5 14.7 2.6 2.5-8.2 LG화학 KRW 33, 1.3 (1.1) (5.) 4.7 21. 4.3 (8.2) 18,897 13.5 - - - 5.4 - 호남석유화학 KRW 212,5 4.9 (2.3) 8.7 27.2 33.2 (3.2) (13.4) 6,854 19.4 19.5 - - 5.1 - 한화케미칼 KRW 23,5 3.5 (2.3) 13.8 26. 45.1 31.7 28.1 3,12 26.4 - - - 7.4 - 금호석유화학 KRW 15,5.5 (5.4) 4.5 19.5 14.1.5 (19.2) 3,25 17.1 14.4 - - - - SKC KRW 32,45 1.7 (3.9) 3.2 1. 2.2 (28.7) (22.9) 1,16 9.7-1..9 7.7 8.4 국도화학 KRW 5,7 1.9 2. (2.5) 2.7 (3.8) 22.5 18.5 277 11.2 -.9-6.7 7.2 Average.7 (1.6) 2.8 7.9 1.8 16.3 6.8 Refinery Valero USD 4.2 1.9 (.6) 17.2 12.3 6.8 51.6 29. 21,8 8.2 12.7 1.2 1.2 4.8 4.4 Conoco Phillips USD 74.3.6 1.5 5.7 14.1 24.1 29.7 28.2 9,918 13. 12.5 1.7 1.8 3.6 4.7 Formosa Petrochemic TWD 8.5.6 (.6) 1. 1.5 2.3 (3.6) (6.4) 26,49 194.9 32.4 3.7 3.3 17.1 34.2 Tesoro USD 47.3.3 (4.5) 5.7 (14.) (12.2) 23.3 7.4 6,389 7. 14.1 1.5 1.4 6.1 4.8 Marathon Petroleum USD 7.8 (.5) (2.3) 9.1 (2.) (14.1) 27.4 12.4 22,172 7.3 12.7 2.1 2. 4.7 3.7 Hollyfrontier USD 44.7.7 (1.6) 4.8 (1.9) (1.9) 15. (3.9) 8,942 5.2 1.9 1.5 1.5 4.1 2.7 SK이노베이션 KRW 153, 1. (3.2) 3. 1. 4.8 (1.) (12.1) 13,314 11.7 12.1 - - 3.7 - S-Oil KRW 78,1. (3.8) (1.1) 4.1 (1.9) (18.1) (24.9) 8,275 1.2 13.9 1.6 1.6 5.7 8.1 GS KRW 59,3.5 (2.) 3.7 6.1 12.7 (9.6) (17.6) 5,185 9.3 1.1.9-5.6 - Average.6 (1.9) 5.5 2.4.3 12.8 1.3 E&P Exxon Mobil USD 88.9.8 1.1 2.3 (5.4).8 (1.9) 2.7 391,437 11.3 11.9 2.4 2.2 4.7 4.7 BP GBP 477.5 5.6 6.6 8.3 2.2 4.5 12.4 12.4 143,814 8.4 1. 1.2 1.2 3.7 4.4 Shell EUR 2,169 1.5 3.2 6.4 (1.9) (.7) 3. 2.2 224,893 8.3 9.1 1.2 1.1 4. 4.2 Total EUR 45.1 1. 2.1 3.4 13.3 18.4 17.6 15.7 147,491 8.3 9. 1.4 1.3 4.1 3.8 Sinopec CNY 4.3 1.4 (1.1) (2.3) 1.9 (16.2) (9.6) (18.5) 84,833 8.6 6.7.9.9 4.8 5. Petrochina CNY 7.6.8 (2.4) (2.9) (3.4) (1.3) (12.6) (15.8) 226,597 12.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 5.7 5.9 Chesapeake USD 28.3.6.5 8.1 24.5 46.5 4.9 7.4 18,848 58.4 17.2 1.5 1.4 7.3 1.8 Anadarko Petroleum USD 97.8 1.2 2.5 3.4 1.3 15.7 47. 31.6 49,145 29.2 21.6 2.3 2.1 7.5 7.2 Noble Energy USD 77.1.8 5.3 15.1 24.3 36.5 63.3 51.6 27,711 33.7 22.4 3.4 2.9 11.4 9.9 PTT E&P THB 169..3 (.3) (.9) 6. 13. 7.4 3. 21,68 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.8 6.3 5. StatOil NOK 143. 1.2 2.3 4.2 11.6 3.5.7 2.9 77,327 8.7 9.5 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.1 Average 1.4 1.8 4.1 7.6 1.2 15.3 14.4 PV WACKER EUR 69.5 (.1) (4.) (3.7).2 3.6 61.4 4.1 5,33 43.8 147.2 1.4 1.6 4. 6. GCL-Poly HKD 2.3 (2.9) (9.8) 6.9 16.1 46.2 63.8 48.1 4,612 - - 1.8 2.3 7.8 24.5 REC NOK 3. (1.2).8 14.6.1 83.6 196.9 181.7 1,183 - -.7 1.2 3.2 23.5 SunEdison USD 9.7 5.9 (2.5) 2. (.9) 81.8 34.6 21.2 2,577 84.1-4.3 5.9 17.2 17.5 Suntech USD 1.3 4.1 (14.2) (5.9) (11.8) 79.4 58.8 (17.) 229 - - - - 25.5 - JA Solar USD 9.8 5.7 (14.) (.4) 6. 89.2 193.7 13.4 426 - - 2.2-1.5 - Trina Solar USD 15.4 3.6 (13.5) 3.5 18.3 194.6 265.5 253.7 1,212 - - 1.2 1.4 12.5 - Yingli USD 6.5 2.7 (17.3) (4.2) 59.3 157. 279.4 174.5 1,74 - - 1.8 3.5 12.6 - First Solar USD 52.4 1.7 (3.9) 28.6 1.7 14.9 118.5 69.7 5,114 11.3 14. 1.2 1.1 5.3 8. 한화솔라원 USD 4.4 7.5 (19.4) 4.9 26. 317.6 321.6 334.2 369 - - - - 1376.9 - OCI KRW 196,5 3.1 (7.1) 12. 18.4 39.9 28.4 18.7 4,41 - - - - 3.6 - Average 2.7 (9.5) 6.9 21.1 13.2 172.1 13.5 * Bloomberg 기준 / valuation multiple 또한 Bloomberg consensus 기준임