/ 자동차산업 9 월현대차그룹글로벌판매 2016. 10. 4 Analyst 조수홍 02)768-7604, soohong.cho@nhqv.com - 9월현대 / 기아차글로벌판매 (ex-factory) 는각각 38.7만대 (-2.0% ), 23.5만대 (+3.2% ). 해외공장판매가양호한성장세를보인반면파업에따른생산차질여파로국내공장판매가현대차 / 기아차각각 9.8만대 (- 20.5% ), 10.1만대 (-17.7% ) 로감소. 기아차판매가상대적으로양호했던이유는 1) 파업영향이현대차대비크지않았고 2) 멕시코신공장가동, 3) 지난해중국기저효과가더컸기때문으로판단됨 - 9 월내수시장판매는약 11.1 만대 (-13.8% ) 를기록. 현대, 기아차내수판매는각각 4.2 만대 (-19.7% ), 3.8 만대 (-14.4% ) 로감소. 국내업체중에서는르노삼성이 SM6 및 QM6 신차효과에힘입어 9 월내수판매 9,222 대 (+39.6% ) 로양호한성장세기록 - 4 분기는파업여파에서벗어날것으로예상되는국내공장과구매세인하정책종료전선수요가기대되는중국공 장중심으로가동률이확대될것으로예상됨. 다만, 이를감안해도 2016 년현대차그룹글로벌판매는 800 만대 를하회할전망. 현대차국내공장과기아차중국공장판매가사업계획에미치지못할것으로예상됨
9 월메이커별국내외자동차판매동향 Domestic(unit) 16-Sep 15-Sep % 16-Aug % m-m 2016 YTD 2015 YTD % Hyundai 41,548 51,725-19.7 42,104-1.3 481,358 497,867-3.3 KIA 38,300 44,751-14.4 37,331 2.6 395,214 376,443 5.0 GM Korea 14,078 16,393-14.1 12,773 10.2 127,990 113,990 12.3 Renault 9,222 6,604 39.6 7,713 19.6 71,204 56,765 25.4 Ssangyong 8,011 8,106-1.2 7,676 4.4 73,929 69,243 6.8 Market 111,159 128,946-13.8 108,617 2.3 1,160,152 1,123,632 3.3 M/S(%) 16-Sep 15-Sep % 16-Aug % m-m 2016 YTD 2015 YTD % Hyundai 37.4 40.1-6.8 38.8-3.6 41.5 44.3-6.4 KIA 34.5 34.7-0.7 34.4 0.2 34.1 33.5 1.7 GM Korea 12.7 12.7-0.4 11.8 7.7 11.0 10.1 8.7 Renault 8.3 5.1 62.0 7.1 16.8 6.1 5.1 21.5 Ssangyong 7.2 6.3 14.6 7.1 2.0 6.4 6.2 3.4 ) Export(unit) May 16-Sep 2016 May 15-Sep 2016 % Apr 16-Aug 2015 % m-m m-m 2016 2016 YTD YTD 2015 2015 YTD YTD % Hyundai 56,315 71,354-21.1 48,913 15.1 697,731 850,882-18.0 KIA 62,970 78,269-19.5 56,620 11.2 723,211 873,798-17.2 GM Korea 31,035 35,552-12.7 25,282 22.8 307,966 339,812-9.4 Renault 4,335 15,550-72.1 7,527-42.4 100,007 105,954-5.6 Ssangyong 4,133 3,383 22.2 4,502-8.2 37,664 34,407 9.5 Total 158,788 205,274-22.6 142,987 11.1 1,854,175 2,183,825-15.1 Overseas plant(unit) 16-Sep 15-Sep % 16-Aug % m-m 2016 YTD 2015 YTD % Hyundai 289,439 271,348 6.7 267,227 8.3 2,298,931 2,188,824 5.0 HMI( 인도 ) N/A 56,539 N/A 59,707 N/A N/A 459,775 N/A BHMC( 중국 ) N/A 90,108 N/A 82,025 N/A N/A 724,643 N/A HAOS( 터키 ) N/A 18,306 N/A 15,901 N/A N/A 162,227 N/A HMMA( 미국 ) N/A 34,886 N/A 38,505 N/A N/A 280,968 N/A HMMC( 체코 ) N/A 32,528 N/A 33,030 N/A N/A 248,134 N/A HMMR( 러시아 ) N/A 21,628 N/A 22,000 N/A N/A 163,991 N/A HMB( 브라질 ) N/A 14,550 N/A 13,552 N/A N/A 126,624 N/A CHMC( 중국상용 ) N/A 2,803 N/A 2,152 N/A N/A 19,549 N/A Kia 134,143 105,054 27.7 126,506 6.0 1,023,109 936,325 9.3 DYKIA( 중국 ) N/A 43,545 N/A 42,091 N/A N/A 402,718 N/A KMS( 슬로박 ) N/A 31,000 N/A 31,900 N/A N/A 248,900 N/A KMMG( 미국 ) N/A 30,509 N/A 36,006 N/A N/A 284,707 N/A KMM( 멕시코 ) N/A N/A N/A 16,509 N/A N/A N/A N/A 주 : 해외공장별 9 월수치는추후발표예정자료 : 각사, NH 투자증권리서치센터 2
현대차그룹월별글로벌공장판매추이 ( 단위 : 대 ) 2016 년 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Hyundai Global 338,086 336,183 433,108 412,339 428,524 444,996 339,238 358,244 387,302 - - - 3,478,020 Hyundai Domestic 122,145 115,375 162,355 149,750 147,642 164,016 128,926 91,017 97,863 - - - 1,179,089 Hyundai Overseas 215,941 220,808 270,753 262,589 280,882 280,980 210,312 267,227 289,439 - - - 2,298,931 HMI(India) 44,230 49,729 51,452 54,420 53,156 55,713 55,807 59,707 - - - - - BHMC(China) 75,236 53,226 100,549 96,222 100,328 97,208 70,016 82,025 - - - - - HAOS(Turkey) 19,803 19,801 21,842 18,108 19,202 20,824 13,084 15,901 - - - - - HMMA(US) 30,866 33,969 29,238 27,450 39,300 37,417 28,820 38,505 - - - - - HMMC(Czech) 28,224 31,108 31,115 31,212 32,522 33,026 15,516 33,030 - - - - - HMMR(Russia) 6,700 17,600 16,582 17,128 18,012 20,578 11,200 22,000 - - - - - HMB(Brazil) 7,012 11,859 15,168 13,163 14,072 12,979 13,397 13,552 - - - - - CHMC(China Commercial) 3,766 3,195 4,602 4,750 3,910 2,805 2,155 2,152 - - - - - Kia Global 213,090 223,143 268,225 241,003 243,212 268,113 228,878 220,457 235,413 - - - 2,141,534 Kia Domestic 111,164 116,993 156,121 131,472 126,412 146,399 134,643 93,951 101,270 - - - 1,118,425 KIA Overseas 101,926 106,150 112,104 109,531 116,800 121,714 94,235 126,506 134,143 - - - 1,023,109 DYKIA(China) 49,259 41,009 50,042 50,156 50,122 45,002 41,005 42,091 - - - - - KMS(Slovakia) 26,300 29,300 29,300 29,500 31,600 31,700 16,100 31,900 - - - - - KMMG(US) 26,367 35,841 32,762 30,105 32,700 35,982 25,605 36,006 - - - - - KMM (Mexico) - - - - 1,931 9,052 11,525 16,509 - - - - - 2015 년 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Hyundai Global 386,373 359,814 436,647 436,711 388,557 407,675 356,858 369,920 395,018 457,511 451,926 516,019 3,537,573 Hyundai Domestic 144,297 132,582 163,363 174,677 148,235 175,438 156,787 130,291 123,079 166,719 158,629 193,069 1,348,749 Hyundai Overseas 242,076 227,232 273,284 262,034 240,322 232,237 200,071 239,629 271,939 290,792 293,297 322,950 2,188,824 HMI(India) 44,783 47,612 49,740 51,505 52,514 52,064 50,411 54,607 56,539 61,701 57,659 64,135 459,775 BHMC(China) 103,319 74,002 102,552 90,189 80,022 60,145 54,160 70,146 90,108 100,069 110,094 128,020 724,643 HAOS(Turkey) 15,361 17,509 20,691 19,845 19,409 20,700 10,405 20,001 18,306 21,045 20,425 22,812 162,227 HMMA(US) 27,000 28,769 32,853 34,754 26,151 29,709 33,753 33,093 34,886 35,516 31,982 31,898 280,968 HMMC(Czech) 25,720 25,960 28,530 27,420 28,740 30,608 24,207 24,421 32,528 33,529 31,842 28,895 248,134 HMMR(Russia) 13,800 17,504 19,600 20,700 17,700 20,300 12,645 20,114 21,628 22,128 20,877 22,504 163,991 HMB(Brazil) 11,288 15,171 16,518 14,883 12,603 15,430 12,168 14,013 14,550 13,320 15,717 18,759 126,624 CHMC(China Commercial) 805 705 2,800 2,700 2,700 2,601 1,905 2,530 2,803 3,006 4,111 5,273 19,549 Kia Global 252,848 221,587 276,645 272,005 242,017 263,090 234,130 196,170 228,074 269,074 285,966 308,367 2,186,566 Kia Domestic 139,214 117,973 153,344 154,492 135,792 163,480 147,110 115,816 123,020 150,340 158,246 166,037 1,250,241 KIA Overseas 113,634 103,614 123,301 117,513 106,225 99,610 87,020 80,354 105,054 118,734 127,720 142,330 936,325 DYKIA(China) 56,130 45,510 59,001 56,006 49,005 37,505 30,008 26,008 43,545 56,506 70,065 86,808 402,718 KMS(Slovakia) 24,900 27,700 30,900 27,900 26,700 30,800 26,000 23,000 31,000 31,400 29,200 28,500 248,900 KMMG(US) 32,604 30,404 33,400 33,607 30,520 31,305 31,012 31,346 30,509 30,828 28,455 27,022 284,707 % (2016 vs 2015) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Hyundai Global -12.5-6.6-0.8-5.6 10.3 9.2-4.9-3.2-2.0 - - - -1.7 Hyundai Domestic -15.4-13.0-0.6-14.3-0.4-6.5-17.8-30.1-20.5 - - - -12.6 Hyundai Overseas -10.8-2.8-0.9 0.2 16.9 21.0 5.1 11.5 6.4 - - - 5.0 HMI(India) -1.2 4.4 3.4 5.7 1.2 7.0 10.7 9.3 - - - - - BHMC(China) -27.2-28.1-2.0 6.7 25.4 61.6 29.3 16.9 - - - - - HAOS(Turkey) 28.9 13.1 5.6-8.8-1.1 0.6 25.7-20.5 - - - - - HMMA(US) 14.3 18.1-11.0-21.0 50.3 25.9-14.6 16.4 - - - - - HMMC(Czech) 9.7 19.8 9.1 13.8 13.2 7.9-35.9 35.3 - - - - - HMMR(Russia) -51.4 0.5-15.4-17.3 1.8 1.4-11.4 9.4 - - - - - HMB(Brazil) -37.9-21.8-8.2-11.6 11.7-15.9 10.1-3.3 - - - - - CHMC(China Commercial) 367.8 353.2 64.4 75.9 44.8 7.8 13.1-14.9 - - - - - Kia Global -15.7 0.7-3.0-11.4 0.5 1.9-2.2 12.4 3.2 - - - -2.1 Kia Domestic -20.1-0.8 1.8-14.9-6.9-10.4-8.5-18.9-17.7 - - - -10.5 KIA Overseas -10.3 2.4-9.1-6.8 10.0 22.2 8.3 57.4 27.7 - - - 9.3 DYKIA(China) -12.2-9.9-15.2-10.4 2.3 20.0 36.6 61.8 - - - - - KMS(Slovakia) 5.6 5.8-5.2 5.7 18.4 2.9-38.1 38.7 - - - - - KMMG(US) -19.1 17.9-1.9-10.4 7.1 14.9-17.4 14.9 - - - - - KMM (Mexico) - - - - - - - - - - - - - 자료 : 각사, NH 투자증권리서치센터 3
분기별현대차그룹글로벌판매추이 ( 단위 : 천대, %) 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16P % % q-q HMG Global 1,934 2,009 1,778 2,287 1,811 2,037 1,770-0.5-13.1 Domestic plant 851 952 796 993 784 866 648-18.6-25.2 Domestic 269 308 297 365 288 338 251-15.5-25.7 Export 582 644 499 629 496 528 397-20.5-24.8 Overseas 1,083 1,057 982 1,294 1,027 1,171 1,122 14.2-4.2 HMC Global 1,183 1,232 1,120 1,424 1,107 1,285 1,085-3.2-15.6 Domestic plant 440 498 410 519 400 461 318-22.5-31.1 Domestic 155 181 163 215 160 189 131-19.2-30.7 Export 285 318 248 304 239 272 186-24.7-31.4 Overseas 743 733 710 905 707 824 767 8.0-6.9 HMI(India) 142 156 162 183 145 163 - - - BHMC(China) 280 230 214 338 229 294 - - - HAOS(Turkey) 54 60 49 64 61 58 - - - HMMA(US) 89 91 102 99 94 104 - - - HMMC(Czech) 80 87 81 94 90 97 - - - HMMR(Russia) 51 59 54 66 41 56 - - - HMB(Brazil) 43 43 41 48 34 40 - - - CHMC(China) 4 8 7 12 12 11 - - - Kia Global 751 777 658 863 704 752 685 4.0-9.0 Domestic plant 411 454 386 474 384 404 330-14.5-18.4 Domestic 114 128 134 150 127 148 119-11.1-19.4 Export 296 326 252 325 257 256 210-16.3-17.8 Overseas 341 323 272 389 320 348 355 30.3 2.0 DYKIA(China) 161 143 100 213 140 145 - - - KMS(Slovakia) 84 85 80 89 85 93 - - - KMMA(US) 96 95 93 86 95 99 - - - KMM(Mexico) 0 0 0 0 0 11 - N/A - 주 : 해외공장별 9월수치는추후발표예정자료 : 각사, NH투자증권리서치센터 4
종목투자등급 (Stock Ratings) 및투자등급분포고지 1. 투자등급 (Ratings): 목표주가제시일현재가기준으로향후 12 개월간종목의목표수익률에따라 Buy : 15% 초과 Hold : -15% ~ 15% Sell : -15% 미만 2. 당사의한국내상장기업에대한투자의견분포는다음과같습니다. (2016년 9월 30일기준 ) 투자의견분포 Buy Hold Sell 79.5% 20.5% 0.0% - 당사의개별기업에대한투자의견은변경되는주기가정해져있지않습니다. 당사는투자의견비율을주간단위로집계하여기재하고있으니참조하시기바랍니다. Compliance Notice 당사는자료작성일현재 현대차, 기아차 의발행주식등을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다. 당사는동자료를기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 당사는 " 현대차 " 를기초자산으로하는 ELW 의발행회사및 LP( 유동성공급자 ) 임을알려드립니다. 동자료의금융투자분석사와배우자는자료작성일현재동자료상에언급된기업들의금융투자상품및권리를보유하고있지않습니다. 동자료에게시된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인합니다. 고지사항 본조사분석자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터의금융투자분석사가신뢰할만한자료및정보를바탕으로최선을다해분석한결과이나그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서투자자의투자판단을위해작성된것이며어떠한경우에도주식등금융투자상품투자의결과에대한법적책임소재를판단하기위한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 본조사분석자료는당사의저작물로서모든지적재산권은당사에귀속되며당사의동의없이복제, 배포, 전송, 변형, 대여할수없습니다. 5