Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 cookie@miraeasset.com Analyst 손예희 3774-1681 angie.sohn@miraeasset.com Weekly Update The Recipe for F&B: valuation Global / Food, Beverage and Tobacco Aug 28 2007 Vol. 1 한국 F&B 섹터의 밸류에이션 부담 완화 중 방어적 흐름 지속된 가운데 AP 개별 종목 상승률 돋보임 지난 1주간 글로벌 F&B 섹터는 전반적으로 벤치마크 대비 언더퍼폼하였는데, 지난 6개 월간의 이른바 defensive 한 주가 트랜드가 지속된 것으로 풀이됨. 즉 bear market에 서의 섹터 퍼포먼스는 상대적으로 양호하나, bull market에서의 주가 상승 탄력은 벤치 마크 지수 대비 열등한, 전형적인 흐름을 보이고 있음. 지난 1주간 MSCI AC world, MSCI AP ex. Japan, MSCI Korea 각각의 상대 퍼포먼스는 -1.4%, -2.5%, -1.4% 수 준에 그쳤음. 다만 유럽 및 미국 지역에 비해 아시아퍼시픽 지역의 지수 상승률이 높게 나타남에 따라, 음식료 섹터에서도 일본을 비롯한 아시아 지역의 개별 종목 수익률이 돋 보였음. Tingyi Holdings의 주간 상승률이 18.0%로 가장 높았고, 롯데칠성, 하이트, CJ 등의 한국 음식료 종목들이 그 뒤를 이었음. 이에 비해 Pepsi, Coca-Cola를 비롯한 미 국 지역 beverage sector 및 Kellogg, Hershey 등의 food sector의 주가는 부진하였음. A valuation perspective: KT&G, Hite의 PEG 배수 매력적 한국 F&B 섹터의 밸류에이션은 글로벌 및 AP peer 대비 큰 매력은 없는 상태임. 다만 역사적으로 보아 밸류에이션상 투자매력이 회복되는 국면이 진행 중인 것으로 판단됨. 즉 historical relative PER이 2004년말 최고점인 1.7x 및 2007년초 고점 1.6x 대비 상 당 폭의 조정을 거쳐 현재 1.3x 수준까지 하락했음. 특히 relative EV/EBITDA 기준으 로는 1.0x를 하회하기 시작했음. EPS growth 대비 PER 배수를 기준으로 하이트맥주 및 KT&G의 밸류에이션 매력이 큰 편이고, ROE 수준을 고려한 PBR 배수를 참고한다 면 KT&G가 매력적인 투자 대안. F&B Sector Performance <World> (%) 1W 1M 6M MSCI AC world 3.7 (4.3) (0.2) MSCI AC world F&B 2.4 (1.2) 1.6 Relative Performance (1.4) 3.1 1.8 <AP ex. Japan> (%) 1W 1M 6M MSCI AP ex. Japan 9.1 (6.9) 8.5 MSCI AC ex. Japan F&B 6.7 (4.6) 4.5 Relative Performance (2.5) 2.3 (4.0) <Korea> (%) 1W 1M 6M MSCI Korea 9.2 (9.7) 17.2 MSCI Korea F&B 7.8 (6.2) 12.3 Relative Performance (1.4) 3.6 (4.9) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH
C ontents I. Global F&B Sector Overview 5 II. Asia Pacific F&B Sector Overview 15 III. Domestic F&B Sector Overview 24 IV. Appendix: Company Profiles (Alphabetical orders) 30 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 2
그림목차 <Graph 1> World F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 5 <Graph 2> Consumer Staple Sector s Last Week Performance by industry 5 <Graph 3> Winners and Losers of Last Week 8 <Graph 4> PER - EPS Growth Map 9 <Graph 5> PBR - ROE Map 9 <Graph 6> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PER 10 <Graph 7> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PBR 10 <Graph 8> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 11 <Graph 9> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 11 <Graph 10> Leading Global F&B : PEG 12 <Graph 11> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PSR 12 <Graph 12> AP ex. Japan F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 15 <Graph 13> Consumer Staple Sector s Last Week Performance by industry 15 <Graph 14> Winners and Losers of Last Week 18 <Graph 15> PER-EPS Growth Map 19 <Graph 16> PBR-ROE Map 19 <Graph 17> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PER 20 <Graph 18> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PBR 20 <Graph 19> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 21 <Graph 20> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 21 <Graph 21> Leading AP F&B : PEG 22 <Graph 22> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PSR 22 <Graph 23> Korea F&B Sector Relative to MSCI Korea by industry 24 <Graph 24> Consumer Staple Industry s Last Week Performance by industry 24 <Graph 25> Winners and Losers of Last Week 25 <Graph 26> PER - EPS Growth 28 <Graph 27> Tr.PBR - ROE Map 28 <Graph 28> PEG Valuation 28 <Graph 29> Korean F&B s Historical Relative PER 29 <Graph 30> Korean F&B s Historical Relative PBR 29 <Graph 31> Korean F&B s Historical Relative EV/EBITDA 29 표목차 <Table 1> Global F&B Comparative Valuation 6 <Table 2> Global F&B Comparative Performance 7 <Table 3> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Valuation 15 <Table 4> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Performance 16 <Table 5> Korea F&B Comparative Valuation 26 <Table 6> Korea F&B Comparative Performance 27 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 3
Global Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 4
I. Global F&B Sector Overview 아시아퍼시픽 개별 종목들의 반등 폭이 컸던 한 주 최근 1개월간 가장 가파른 상승세 보였던 beverage sector의 조정 폭이 가장 컸음 지난 1주간 글로벌 F&B 섹터는 전반적으로 벤치마크 대비 언더퍼폼. 이는 지난 6개월간의 이른 바 defensive 한 주가 트랜드가 지속된 것으로 풀이됨. 즉 bear market에서의 섹터 퍼포먼스 는 상대적으로 양호하나, bull market에서의 주가 상승 탄력은 벤치마크 지수 대비 열등한, 전 형적인 흐름을 보이고 있음. 세부 섹터별로는 최근 수익률이 가장 좋았던 음료(beverage) 섹터 의 주가 조정 폭이 가장 컸고, 식료품(food) 섹터의 주가가 가장 양호한 흐름을 보임. 지역별로 는 유럽 및 미국 지역에 비해 아시아퍼시픽 지역의 지수 상승률이 높게 나타남에 따라, 음식료 섹터에서도 일본을 비롯한 아시아 지역의 개별 종목 수익률이 돋보였음. Tingyi Holdings의 주 간 상승률이 18.0%로 가장 높았고, 롯데칠성, 하이트, CJ 등의 한국 음식료 종목들이 그 뒤를 이었음. 이에 비해 Pepsi, Coca-Cola를 비롯한 미국 지역 음료 섹터 및 전월대비 EPS 하향조 정이 가장 큰 폭으로 이뤄진 Hershey 등 식품 기업의 주가는 하락하였음. <Graph 1> World F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry (%) 110 108 106 104 Beverage 102 98 96 94 92 Tobacco Food 90 06/01 06/03 06/05 06/07 06/09 06/11 07/01 07/03 07/05 07/07 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 (2006/01/01=) Consumer Staples 전반적으로 부진: beverage sector 수익률 가장 부진 <Graph 2> Consumer Staple Sector s Last Week Performance by industry (%) 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 0.0 World Consumer Staples Food Retailing Beverage Food Tobacco Household Products Personal Products 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 5
<Table 1> Global F&B Comparative Valuation Company Name Ticker Ctry Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) EPS (MoM) OP Margin EBITDA Margin ROE 07E 07E 08E 07E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E (%) (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) (%) (USD bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary Altria Group Inc. MO-US US 6.0 145.7 37.9 (46.0) 3.9 9.1 (20.0) 7.5 0.0 0.0 36.6 37.1 37.9 38.5 52.0 44.0 Nestle S.A. NESN-CH SW 7.0 170.3 88.3 7.7 7.7 8.4 12.2 10.7 0.7 1.9 13.6 13.9 16.7 16.9 18.7 18.9 Coca-Cola Co. KO-US US 4.6 124.9 28.0 16.1 7.9 6.1 11.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 27.2 31.4 32.2 35.0 36.3 PepsiCo Inc. PEP-US US 4.6 110.2 38.6 9.9 5.7 5.6 12.7 9.9 0.9 1.0 18.7 19.3 22.5 23.2 35.3 38.8 British American Tobacco PLC BATS-GB UK 2.1 67.1 19.8 1.0 3.5 4.4 7.3 9.1 0.8 0.9 30.1 31.2 34.2 35.0 32.7 34.1 Kraft Foods Inc. KFT-US US 2.2 51.2 36.2 5.5 6.6 2.9 (7.2) 6.7 0.0 0.0 13.7 13.7 16.1 16.4 10.3 11.1 Japan Tobacco Inc. 2914-JP JP 0.9 48.7 54.0 31.3 9.5 2.3 26.2 (16.2) 2.0 5.9 7.1 6.0 9.5 9.9 13.4 9.2 InBev INB-BE BE 0.6 46.9 19.5 7.2 6.2 2.4 27.4 13.2 1.9 0.8 25.5 26.1 33.3 33.8 13.8 14.0 Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. BUD-US US 1.5 36.3 16.5 5.2 3.7 2.1 11.1 9.2 0.1 (0.3) 17.1 17.3 23.3 23.5 61.0 84.6 Groupe Danone BN-FR FR 1.4 36.2 20.2 5.1 12.7 1.8 5.1 10.8 (1.0) (1.1) 14.0 15.3 17.4 18.0 21.7 19.2 Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM-US US 0.8 21.6 46.2 5.0 1.9 1.7 15.6 7.3 1.9 0.7 5.2 5.4 6.8 7.3 15.4 16.1 General Mills Inc. GIS-US US 0.8 18.9 12.9 3.6 4.0 1.2 8.3 8.6 0.1 0.0 17.1 17.2 20.4 20.6 21.2 21.5 Kellogg Co. K-US US 0.6 21.6 11.6 6.8 4.4 1.1 10.0 9.8 0.0 (0.3) 16.0 16.5 19.1 19.6 47.1 41.4 Campbell Soup Co. CPB-US US 0.4 14.8 8.1 4.3 4.6 0.8 7.6 7.7 0.0 0.2 17.0 17.0 20.4 20.3 61.0 42.2 H.J. Heinz Co. HNZ-US US 0.6 14.6 9.4 4.6 4.0 0.8 9.2 8.8 0.4 0.4 16.5 17.1 19.2 19.8 45.3 46.9 Kirin Holdings Co. Ltd. 2503-JP JP 0.4 12.9 15.7 9.1 1.5 0.5 2.3 8.2 0.4 (3.1) 6.4 6.8 10.9 11.2 5.5 6.3 ConAgra Foods Inc. CAG-US US 0.5 12.5 12.2 1.6 2.3 0.7 3.5 7.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 10.8 13.5 13.9 16.2 17.3 Sara Lee Corp. SLE-US US 0.5 12.3 12.8 4.5 3.3 0.7 16.9 10.3 9.0 3.9 7.7 8.3 12.0 13.9 15.0 16.2 Heineken Holding N.V. HEIO-NL NL 0.2 12.9 17.2 6.7 5.1 1.1 (13.3) 14.0 (0.2) 0.2 NA NA 20.2 21.2 29.5 29.7 Hershey Co. HSY-US US 0.3 10.7 5.0 1.9 2.9 0.5 (5.1) 8.4 (7.8) (8.3) 18.5 19.2 22.7 23.6 78.1 81.6 Foster's Group Ltd. FGL-AU AU 0.4 9.9 3.9 (4.2) 5.5 0.6 11.2 9.8 (1.0) (0.2) 30.5 31.3 29.9 30.9 15.6 16.4 KT&G Corp. 033780-KR KR 0.3 10.4 2.6 10.5 5.2 0.7 21.4 10.1 1.7 4.2 33.6 33.3 39.0 38.7 24.1 25.0 Ajinomoto Co. Inc. 2802-JP JP 0.3 7.9 10.3 3.4 3.5 0.3 13.8 19.6 0.1 0.4 6.3 6.8 11.1 11.7 6.0 7.3 Asahi Breweries Ltd. 2502-JP JP 0.2 6.8 12.8 2.3 0.9 0.4 (1.0) 2.1 (1.2) (2.2) 5.9 5.9 9.3 9.4 8.7 8.4 Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp. 322-HK HK 0.1 6.8 3.0 28.9 23.3 0.2 18.5 21.9 6.7 (2.5) 9.8 10.4 14.6 14.3 19.6 20.9 Nissin Food Products Co. Ltd. 2897-JP JP 0.1 3.9 3.5 12.5 0.8 0.2 7.0 1.8 (4.1) (1.9) 7.5 7.9 9.2 9.8 7.0 7.2 CJ Corp. 001040-KR KR 0.1 3.8 3.0 9.3 6.9 0.1 (28.2) 51.0 1.7 3.1 8.6 9.0 12.0 12.3 7.2 10.2 Hite Brewery Co. Ltd. 000140-KR KR 0.1 2.6 1.0 7.5 7.7 0.1 41.0 18.3 1.4 1.5 25.6 26.0 32.8 32.7 11.2 12.2 Lotte Confectionary Co. Ltd. 004990-KR KR 0.0 2.4 1.2 5.9 4.7 0.1 (55.9) 12.3 0.7 0.3 9.5 9.8 16.3 17.0 7.9 8.2 Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co. Ltd. 005300-KR KR 0.0 1.9 1.2 6.2 7.2 0.1 1.9 15.2 (0.1) (0.1) 7.6 7.8 15.4 16.3 5.4 6.1 Nong Shim Co. Ltd. 004370-KR KR 0.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.1 6.9 (0.7) (2.7) (2.4) 9.3 9.8 12.8 13.4 12.7 11.5 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 6
<Table 2> Global F&B Comparative Performance Company Name Price Consensus Upside 12-month Forward Valuation Performance TP Potential PER PBR EV/EBITDA DY PCR PSR PEG 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 3Y (Local) (Local) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Valuation Summary Altria Group Inc. 69.2 79.0 14.2 15.4 4.1 9.6 4.3 14.2 3.7 (2.1) 2.4 1.7 (1.8) (19.0) (18.1) (19.4) 41.8 Nestle S.A. 510.0 550.0 7.8 17.9 3.3 11.7 2.4 14.0 1.8 1.6 4.6 9.4 8.9 6.5 21.8 17.8 71.7 Coca-Cola Co. 54.0 58.0 7.4 19.1 6.6 13.7 2.7 16.7 4.2 1.7 (0.8) 1.5 5.4 14.3 21.3 11.9 22.7 PepsiCo Inc. 68.2 75.0 9.9 18.9 7.3 12.3 2.3 15.2 2.7 1.7 (1.7) 3.0 (0.3) 5.6 6.4 9.1 38.2 British American Tobacco PLC 16.4 17.5 6.8 14.5 4.8 11.0 4.4 13.5 3.3 1.8 1.4 1.0 (0.2) 3.4 13.6 14.6 99.1 Kraft Foods Inc. 32.5 36.0 10.8 17.3 1.8 10.4 3.3 13.6 1.4 (33.4) 3.8 (6.7) (2.8) (2.3) (2.1) (9.0) 3.8 Japan Tobacco Inc. 589,000 725,000 23.1 22.8 2.5 10.0 0.8 12.5 0.9 8.1 0.5 (7.4) (3.1) 7.9 35.4 2.4 232.4 InBev 56.2 62.5 11.3 17.5 2.4 7.6 1.6 10.5 2.3 0.9 4.2 (8.5) (5.4) 5.9 41.1 12.4 114.4 Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. 48.4 54.0 11.6 16.2 14.7 11.5 2.7 10.6 2.1 1.6 2.4 (1.5) (5.6) (3.3) (1.8) (1.6) (7.8) Groupe Danone 55.3 68.5 24.0 18.9 3.6 10.7 2.1 12.4 1.7 2.4 3.0 (1.1) (5.7) (12.4) 3.7 (4.7) 65.5 Archer Daniels Midland Co. 33.1 42.0 27.0 11.9 1.6 7.6 1.4 8.6 0.5 1.0 1.3 (8.5) (5.7) (6.0) (20.7) 3.5 106.8 General Mills Inc. 57.3 63.5 10.8 16.3 3.4 9.4 2.8 16.8 1.5 1.9 2.7 0.3 (4.8) 0.2 7.0 (0.5) 22.9 Kellogg Co. 54.6 59.0 8.1 18.6 7.2 11.1 2.3 13.8 1.8 1.9 0.7 5.5 2.3 9.6 9.6 9.1 30.3 Campbell Soup Co. 38.3 44.0 14.8 17.9 9.7 10.2 2.2 NA 1.8 2.3 5.2 0.8 (1.9) (8.5) 2.7 (1.5) 47.0 H.J. Heinz Co. 45.4 49.5 9.0 17.0 7.4 10.2 3.4 12.8 1.5 1.9 0.5 0.4 (2.7) (3.8) 10.0 0.9 20.7 Kirin Holdings Co. Ltd. 1,518 1,910 25.8 25.1 1.4 8.0 1.3 10.4 0.8 4.8 4.3 (16.5) (19.3) (19.3) (4.8) (18.9) 52.0 ConAgra Foods Inc. 25.6 27.5 7.4 17.0 NA 9.2 2.9 11.0 1.0 3.1 1.8 (2.5) 0.2 0.3 10.1 (5.2) (1.9) Sara Lee Corp. 16.8 16.0 (4.5) 17.0 3.0 9.3 2.5 NA 1.0 1.3 2.9 0.5 (5.1) (2.8) 1.2 (1.6) (24.3) Heineken Holding N.V. 38.8 42.3 9.0 16.5 3.1 3.5 2.0 9.2 0.7 (29.1) 1.8 (4.9) 7.8 18.2 23.9 25.8 76.7 Hershey Co. 46.7 49.0 4.9 19.7 16.3 10.6 2.5 14.3 2.1 13.4 1.0 (1.5) (10.0) (12.0) (12.9) (6.2) (2.6) Foster's Group Ltd. 5.9 6.5 10.4 14.9 2.3 10.3 4.5 13.5 2.5 1.4 3.5 (7.4) (6.1) (11.4) 8.7 (14.9) 28.9 KT&G Corp. 66,700 78,750 18.1 12.9 3.1 9.9 3.8 11.6 4.0 0.9 6.9 (5.8) (2.6) 13.1 13.1 18.1 126.1 Ajinomoto Co. Inc. 1,408 1,600 13.6 24.5 1.5 7.0 1.2 9.4 0.8 1.5 8.4 (3.9) (3.2) (6.3) 13.5 (10.5) 14.7 Asahi Breweries Ltd. 1,634 1,888 15.5 17.3 1.4 7.4 1.2 8.2 0.5 30.2 (0.4) (7.7) (16.0) (17.1) (3.6) (14.2) 56.8 Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp. 9.5 1.2 (87.8) 257.7 50.4 106.1 0.2 123.8 15.2 12.8 18.0 1.0 2.7 1.8 103.7 24.3 394.8 Nissin Food Products Co. Ltd. 3,680.0 4,050.0 10.1 21.9 1.5 7.2 1.4 16.6 1.1 5.0 7.9 (1.9) (15.6) (13.0) (5.9) (16.6) 33.6 CJ Corp. 119,000 124,500 4.6 25.7 2.5 14.7 1.3 18.7 1.5 6.2 10.2 (7.8) 19.0 20.7 27.1 6.3 107.7 Hite Brewery Co. Ltd. 117,500 148,500 26.4 15.8 1.8 10.2 0.9 11.8 1.0 0.5 13.0 (7.8) (3.7) 10.3 17.5 (1.7) 49.7 Lotte Confectionary Co. Ltd. 1,600,000 NA NA 16.1 1.2 9.7 0.2 17.9 1.9 (0.5) 4.4 (9.1) 36.2 24.5 33.9 32.2 184.2 Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co. Ltd. 1,470,000 1,643,000 11.8 20.5 1.4 7.3 0.2 14.3 1.5 2.5 14.8 (7.0) 26.9 10.5 15.5 5.0 120.7 Nong Shim Co. Ltd. 219,500 290,000 32.1 10.6 1.2 4.4 1.7 6.2 0.6 3.5 1.6 (16.2) (12.5) (14.6) (2.4) (23.0) (5.8) 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주1: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 주2: : 기간별 Best : 기간별 Worst Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 7
일본, 한국 등의 AP leading F&B 기업의 수익률이 상대적으로 양호 <Graph 3> Winners and Losers of Last Week 미주 지역의 경우 방어적 성격이 강한 Food Sector가 Beverage Sector 보다 수익률이 양호 Tingyi Lotte Chilsung Hite CJ Ajinomoto Nissin Food KT&G Campbell 5.2 6.9 7.9 8.4 10.2 13.0 14.8 18.0 Nestle Lotte Confectionary Kirin 4.6 4.4 4.3 InBev 4.2 Kraft Foster's Danone 3.8 3.5 3.0 Sara Lee General Mills Anheuser-Busch 2.9 2.7 2.4 Altria ConAgra Foods Heineken Nong Shim 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 BAT ADM Hershey 1.4 1.3 1.0 Kellogg H.J. Heinz JT Asahi (0.4) 0.7 0.5 0.5 Coca-Cola Pepsi (1.7) (0.8) (%) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대 수익률 기준 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 8
미주, 유럽 지역의 global F&B 기업에 비해 일본 기업들의 PER가 <Graph 4> PER - EPS Growth Map 상당히 높은 영역에 속해 있음 (Fw 12 PER, X) 25.0 CJKirin Campbell Coca-Cola Ajinomoto JT 22.0 Nissin Food Lotte Chilsung H.J. Heinz Hershey 19.0 Danone Kellogg Pepsi InBev Kraft Nestle Heineken Asahi Sara Lee Hite Altria 16.0 ConAgra Foods Anheuser-Busch General Mills Foster's BAT KT&G 13.0 ADM Nong Shim (06~08E EPS CAGR, %) 10.0 (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 PBR Multiple은 ROE 수준의 함수: 다만 Beverage Group의 PBR이 <Graph 5> PBR - ROE Map 상대적으로 높게 형성된 것이 Global 트랜드 (Fw 12 PBR, X) 8.0 7.0 JT Pepsi H.J. Heinz Kellogg 6.0 InBev General Mills Coca-Cola 5.0 BAT Altria 4.0 3.0 2.0 Hite Lotte Chilsung Kraft CJ Ajinomoto Sara Lee Nestle Foster's Danone KT&G Heineken Asahi ADM 1.0 Kirin Nong Shim Nissin Food Lotte Confectionary (07E ROE, %) 0.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 9
<Graph 6> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PER Nong Shim ADM KT&G BAT Foster's Altria Hite Lotte Confectionary Anheuser-Busch General Mills Heineken H.J. Heinz ConAgra Foods Sara Lee Kraft Asahi InBev Campbell Nestle Kellogg Pepsi Danone Coca-Cola Hershey Lotte Chilsung Nissin Food JT Ajinomoto Kirin CJ 10.6 11.9 12.9 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.9 17.9 18.6 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.9 22.8 24.5 25.1 25.7 (X) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 7> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PBR Lotte Confectionary Nong Shim Kirin Asahi Lotte Chilsung Nissin Food Ajinomoto ADM Hite Kraft Foster's InBev JT CJ Sara Lee Heineken KT&G Nestle General Mills Danone Altria BAT Coca-Cola Kellogg Pepsi H.J. Heinz Campbell Anheuser-Busch Hershey 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.8 6.6 7.2 7.3 7.4 9.7 14.7 16.3 (X) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 10
<Graph 8> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield Lotte Confectionary Lotte Chilsung Tingyi JT Hite Asahi Ajinomoto CJ Kirin ADM Nissin Food InBev Nong Shim Heineken Danone Campbell Pepsi Kellogg Nestle Hershey Sara Lee Coca-Cola Anheuser-Busch General Mills ConAgra Foods Kraft H.J. Heinz KT&G Altria BAT Foster's 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.5 (%) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 9> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA Heineken Nong Shim Ajinomoto Nissin Food Lotte Chilsung Asahi ADM InBev Kirin ConAgra Foods Sara Lee General Mills Altria Lotte Confectionary KT&G JT H.J. Heinz Hite Campbell Foster's Kraft Hershey Danone BAT Kellogg Anheuser-Busch Nestle Pepsi Coca-Cola CJ 3.5 4.4 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.6 8.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.7 12.3 13.7 14.7 (X) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 11
<Graph 10> Leading Global F&B : PEG Hite InBev KT&G ADM Sara Lee Foster's Ajinomoto Nestle Anheuser- Pepsi Coca-Cola BAT H.J. Heinz Kellogg General Mills Campbell Danone Lotte Chilsung ConAgra Nong Shim Kirin Nissin Food CJ JT Tingyi Hershey 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.5 4.8 5.0 6.2 8.1 12.8 13.4 (X) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: EPS GROWTH = 06~08E EPS CAGR <Graph 11> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PSR ADM Asahi Nong Shim Heineken Ajinomoto Kirin JT Sara Lee Hite ConAgra Foods Nissin Food Kraft General Mills Lotte Chilsung CJ H.J. Heinz Danone Kellogg Campbell Nestle Lotte Anheuser-Busch Hershey InBev Foster's Pepsi BAT Altria KT&G Coca-Cola 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 (X) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 12
Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 13
Asia Pacific Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 14
II. Asia Pacific F&B Sector Overview 한국/일본 업체들 낙폭 회복 수준의 주가 상승세 시현 일본기업들의 PEG: 어닝스 하향 조정 지속 트랜드 고려하면 상당히 부담스러움 전주 낙폭이 컸던 종목 위주로 주가 상승세 시현. 특히 EPS 성장률 대비 PER 배수가 낮은 영 역에 속해 있던 Uni-President의 주간 주가 상승률이 24.4%로 가장 컸음. 한국 음식료 기업들 의 주가 역시 낙폭 과대 종목의 반등이라는 맥락에서 파악될 수 있는데, 롯데칠성, 하이트맥주, CJ 등의 주가 상승률이 AP F&B group 내에서 주간 주가 상승률 수위를 차지함. AP F&B 섹터의 주요 종목들의 밸류에이션은 글로벌 리딩 기업 대비 매력적인 수준에 놓여 있 다고 보기 힘듦. 특히 PEG 관점에서 글로벌 리딩 기업들은 2.0배 미만에서 형성되어 있으나, AP 주요 종목들의 경우 호주 기업들을 제외한 일본 및 한국 기업들은 상당히 높은 배수에서 거 래되고 있음. 특히 가장 높은 PEG 수준에 놓여있는 일본 기업들의 경우, 2008년 어닝스가 지 속적으로 하향조정되고 있음을 볼 때 추가적인 주가 조정 여지가 커 보임. <Graph 12> AP ex. Japan F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry (%) 140 130 Food 120 110 Tobacco 90 80 Beverage 70 60 06/01 06/03 06/05 06/07 06/09 06/11 07/01 07/03 07/05 07/07 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 <Graph 13> Consumer Staple Sector s Last Week Performance by industry (%) 10.0 9.1 9.4 8.0 6.0 6.7 5.6 5.9 6.1 7.8 4.9 4.0 2.0 0.0 AP ex.japan Consumer Staples Food Retailing Beverage Food Tobacco Household Products Personal Products 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준임 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 15
<Table 3> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Valuation Company Name Ticker Ctry Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) EPS (MoM) OP Margin EBITDA Margin ROE 07E 07E 08E 07E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E (%) (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) (%) (USD bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary Japan Tobacco Inc. 2914-JP JP 0.9 48.7 54.0 31.3 9.5 2.3 26.2 (16.2) 2.0 5.9 7.1 6.0 9.5 9.9 13.4 9.2 Kirin Holdings Co. Ltd. 2503-JP JP 0.4 12.9 15.7 9.1 1.5 0.5 2.3 8.2 0.4 (3.1) 6.4 6.8 10.9 11.2 5.5 6.3 Foster's Group Ltd. FGL-AU AU 0.4 9.9 3.9 (4.2) 5.5 0.6 11.2 9.8 (1.0) (0.2) 30.5 31.3 29.9 30.9 15.6 16.4 Ajinomoto Co. Inc. 2802-JP JP 0.3 7.9 10.3 3.4 3.5 0.3 13.8 19.6 0.1 0.4 6.3 6.8 11.1 11.7 6.0 7.3 Asahi Breweries Ltd. 2502-JP JP 0.2 6.8 12.8 2.3 0.9 0.4 (1.0) 2.1 (1.2) (2.2) 5.9 5.9 9.3 9.4 8.7 8.4 IOI Corp. Bhd 1961-MY MY 0.2 8.1 2.9 14.4 4.7 0.5 25.0 7.9 (4.7) (3.7) 23.8 25.1 25.5 26.0 23.3 21.9 Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd. CCL-AU AU 0.2 5.9 3.7 1.6 (6.0) 0.3 12.5 11.8 2.8 0.0 18.5 20.8 18.6 21.0 23.5 24.9 ITC Ltd. 500875-IN IN 0.2 14.8 3.5 12.3 18.3 0.7 10.4 15.9 4.8 (0.8) 29.9 29.9 30.6 30.6 26.2 27.6 China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd. 2319-HK CH 0.1 5.0 2.9 40.1 29.3 0.1 32.0 31.0 0.3 2.2 5.8 6.2 8.0 7.8 26.5 25.8 Uni-President Enterprises Corp. 1216-TW TW 0.1 3.7 1.4 (82.4) 6.1 0.2 102.6 (19.9) (0.1) 0.2 NA NA 7.3 7.7 10.5 11.2 Nissin Food Products Co. Ltd. 2897-JP JP 0.1 3.9 3.5 12.5 0.8 0.2 7.0 1.8 (4.1) (1.9) 7.5 7.9 9.2 9.8 7.0 7.2 Yakult Honsha Co. Ltd. 2267-JP JP 0.1 4.1 2.5 5.5 3.9 0.1 9.8 3.6 8.0 0.8 8.3 9.4 13.6 13.9 6.9 6.6 Goodman Fielder Ltd. GFF-AU AU 0.1 2.6 2.1 5.7 2.4 0.2 7.9 6.2 0.0 0.0 18.4 19.1 17.3 17.9 12.5 12.9 Lion Nathan Ltd. LNN-AU AU 0.1 3.9 1.6 5.5 3.4 0.2 1.0 8.0 (0.4) 0.0 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.8 33.0 33.3 Wilmar International Ltd. F34-SG SG 0.1 6.1 15.6 192.5 53.1 0.4 60.9 47.7 (18.4) 0.6 4.3 4.0 4.8 4.7 12.7 9.7 Nippon Meat Packers Inc. 2282-JP JP 0.1 2.3 8.6 2.3 2.1 0.1 (16.6) 43.2 0.0 (3.8) 2.1 2.4 4.5 4.8 3.2 4.3 Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Co322-HK HK 0.1 6.8 3.0 28.9 23.3 0.2 18.5 21.9 6.7 (2.5) 9.8 10.4 14.6 14.3 19.6 20.9 Kikkoman Corp. 2801-JP JP 0.1 2.6 3.6 4.9 3.2 0.1 5.2 6.6 0.1 0.3 5.7 5.9 9.9 10.1 6.2 6.0 Ito En Ltd. 2593-JP JP 0.1 2.6 2.9 9.6 6.7 0.1 12.1 9.1 (0.4) (0.5) 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.1 15.2 14.6 Nisshin Seifun Group Inc. 2002-JP JP 0.1 2.3 3.7 2.6 1.6 0.1 (4.2) 2.6 (1.5) (3.0) 4.3 4.4 NA NA 4.1 4.3 KT&G Corp. 033780-KR KR 0.3 10.4 2.6 10.5 5.2 0.7 21.4 10.1 1.7 4.2 33.6 33.3 39.0 38.7 24.1 25.0 CJ Corp. 001040-KR KR 0.1 3.8 3.0 9.3 6.9 0.1 (28.2) 51.0 1.7 3.1 8.6 9.0 12.0 12.3 7.2 10.2 Hite Brewery Co. Ltd. 000140-KR KR 0.1 2.6 1.0 7.5 7.7 0.1 41.0 18.3 1.4 1.5 25.6 26.0 32.8 32.7 11.2 12.2 Lotte Confectionary Co. Ltd. 004990-KR KR 0.0 2.4 1.2 5.9 4.7 0.1 (55.9) 12.3 0.7 0.3 9.5 9.8 16.3 17.0 7.9 8.2 Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co. Ltd. 005300-KR KR 0.0 1.9 1.2 6.2 7.2 0.1 1.9 15.2 (0.1) (0.1) 7.6 7.8 15.4 16.3 5.4 6.1 Nong Shim Co. Ltd. 004370-KR KR 0.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.1 6.9 (0.7) (2.7) (2.4) 9.3 9.8 12.8 13.4 12.7 11.5 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 16
<Table 4> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Performance Company Name Price Consensus Upside 12-month Forward Valuation Performance TP Potential PER PBR EV/EBITDA DY PCR PSR PEG 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 3Y (Local) (Local) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Valuation Summary Japan Tobacco Inc. 589,000 725,000.0 23.1 22.8 2.5 10.0 0.8 12.5 0.9 8.1 0.5 (7.4) (3.1) 7.9 35.4 2.4 232.4 Kirin Holdings Co. Ltd. 1,518.0 1,910.0 25.8 25.1 1.4 8.0 1.3 10.4 0.8 4.8 4.3 (16.5) (19.3) (19.3) (4.8) (18.9) 52.0 Foster's Group Ltd. 5.9 6.5 10.4 14.9 2.3 10.3 4.5 13.5 2.5 1.4 3.5 (7.4) (6.1) (11.4) 8.7 (14.9) 28.9 Ajinomoto Co. Inc. 1,408.0 1,600.0 13.6 24.5 1.5 7.0 1.2 9.4 0.8 1.5 8.4 (3.9) (3.2) (6.3) 13.5 (10.5) 14.7 Asahi Breweries Ltd. 1,634.0 1,888.0 15.5 17.3 1.4 7.4 1.2 8.2 0.5 30.2 (0.4) (7.7) (16.0) (17.1) (3.6) (14.2) 56.8 IOI Corp. Bhd 5.0 6.0 20.7 17.6 4.1 11.0 2.7 16.9 2.8 1.5 (3.8) (14.0) (12.4) 18.9 44.2 28.6 179.9 Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd. 9.5 9.5 0.9 18.1 4.4 9.9 4.1 12.2 1.7 1.5 5.2 (0.9) 0.6 10.0 50.4 21.9 34.8 ITC Ltd. 161.7 200.0 23.7 18.8 4.8 11.9 2.3 17.2 3.9 1.4 5.3 6.2 (2.7) (3.2) (10.2) (8.2) 135.6 China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd. 27.3 29.4 7.9 32.3 6.6 17.4 0.7 20.6 1.4 1.0 14.7 (3.4) 6.4 11.0 173.0 33.5 NA Uni-President Enterprises Corp. 34.2 35.5 3.9 19.1 2.3 41.8 2.5 NA 2.6 0.7 24.4 (4.1) 14.4 14.4 40.0 11.5 143.3 Nissin Food Products Co. Ltd. 3,680.0 4,050.0 10.1 21.9 1.5 7.2 1.4 16.6 1.1 5.0 7.9 (1.9) (15.6) (13.0) (5.9) (16.6) 33.6 Yakult Honsha Co. Ltd. 2,720.0 3,400.0 25.0 28.7 1.7 10.0 0.7 17.1 1.6 4.3 3.8 (6.7) (4.7) (25.3) (13.4) (20.5) 64.1 Goodman Fielder Ltd. 2.4 2.7 9.5 13.5 1.7 8.9 5.9 10.7 1.2 1.9 6.1 (6.6) 0.0 1.7 19.8 9.0 NA Lion Nathan Ltd. 8.9 9.0 1.4 17.0 5.4 10.3 4.8 13.2 2.4 3.8 4.5 (2.6) (2.5) 5.7 13.1 8.8 24.2 Wilmar International Ltd. 3.0 4.1 36.7 20.5 2.5 8.1 0.9 16.7 0.3 0.4 3.8 (15.3) NA NA NA NA NA Nippon Meat Packers Inc. 1,233.0 1,350.0 9.5 25.1 NA NA 1.3 8.1 0.3 2.7 (1.9) (8.5) (16.7) (13.2) (3.7) (5.2) (5.4) Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp. 9.5 1.2 (87.8) 257.7 50.4 106.1 0.2 123.8 15.2 12.8 18.0 1.0 2.7 1.8 103.7 24.3 394.8 Kikkoman Corp. 1,534.0 1,650.0 7.6 25.6 NA NA 0.8 10.0 0.7 4.4 6.1 (2.7) (13.9) (8.0) 5.9 6.8 62.8 Ito En Ltd. 3,440.0 4,500.0 30.8 21.6 3.1 9.8 1.5 18.3 0.9 2.0 (1.7) (9.7) (12.7) (11.6) (12.0) (5.5) 45.1 Nisshin Seifun Group Inc. 1,059.0 NA NA 22.5 NA NA 1.7 10.2 0.6 (25.3) 0.0 (8.1) (13.1) (15.3) (14.3) (13.8) 9.5 KT&G Corp. 66,700.0 78,750.0 18.1 12.9 3.1 9.9 3.8 11.6 4.0 0.9 6.9 (5.8) (2.6) 13.1 13.1 18.1 126.1 CJ Corp. 119,000 124,500.0 4.6 25.7 2.5 14.7 1.3 18.7 1.5 6.2 10.2 (7.8) 19.0 20.7 27.1 6.3 107.7 Hite Brewery Co. Ltd. 117,500 148,500.0 26.4 15.8 1.8 10.2 0.9 11.8 1.0 0.5 13.0 (7.8) (3.7) 10.3 17.5 (1.7) 49.7 Lotte Confectionary Co. Ltd. 1,600,000 NA NA 16.1 1.2 9.7 0.2 17.9 1.9 (0.5) 4.4 (9.1) 36.2 24.5 33.9 32.2 184.2 Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co. Ltd. 1,470,000 1,643,000.0 11.8 20.5 1.4 7.3 0.2 14.3 1.5 2.5 14.8 (7.0) 26.9 10.5 15.5 5.0 120.7 Nong Shim Co. Ltd. 219,500.0 290,000.0 32.1 10.6 1.2 4.4 1.7 6.2 0.6 3.5 1.6 (16.2) (12.5) (14.6) (2.4) (23.0) (5.8) 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주1: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 주2: : 기간별 Best : 기간별 Worst Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 17
<Graph 14> Winners and Losers of Last Week Uni-President Tingyi Lotte Chilsung China Mengniu Dairy Hite CJ Ajinomoto Nissin Food KT&G Goodman Kikkoman ITC Coca-Cola Amatil Lion Nathan Lotte Confectionary Kirin Yakult Wilmar Foster's Nong Shim JT Nisshin Asahi Ito Nippon Meat IOI (0.4) (1.7) (1.9) (3.8) 14.8 14.7 13.0 10.2 8.4 7.9 6.9 6.1 6.1 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 18.0 24.4 (%) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 18
<Graph 15> PER-EPS Growth Map 35 30 (Fw 12 PER, x) Yakult China Mengniu Dairy CJ Kikkoman Ajinomoto 25 Kirin Nippon Meat Nisshin JT Ito Nissin Food 20 Coca-Cola Amatil Lotte Chilsung Asahi ITC IOI 15 Lion Nathan Foster's Hite Uni-President 10 KT&G Nong Shim 5 (06~08E EPS CAGR, %) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 <Graph 16> PBR-ROE Map (Fw 12 PBR, x) 8 China Mengniu Dairy 6 Ajinomoto ITC Lion Nathan Coca-Cola Amatil 4 IOI 2 0 Kirin Wilmar Ito KT&G CJ Uni-President JT Foster's Yakult Nissin Food Hite Goodman Lotte Confectionary Nong Shim Lotte Chilsung Asahi (07E ROE,%) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 19
<Graph 17> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PER Nong Shim KT&G Goodman Foster's Hite Lotte Confectionary Lion Nathan Asahi IOI Coca-Cola Amatil ITC Uni-President Wilmar Lotte Chilsung Ito Nissin Food Nisshin JT Ajinomoto Nippon Meat Kirin Kikkoman CJ Yakult China Mengniu Dairy 10.6 12.9 13.5 14.9 15.8 16.1 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.1 20.5 20.5 21.6 21.9 22.5 22.8 24.5 25.1 25.1 25.6 25.7 28.7 32.3 (X) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 18> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PBR Lotte Confectionary Nong Shim Kirin Asahi Lotte Chilsung Nissin Food Ajinomoto Goodman Yakult Hite Uni-President Foster's JT CJ Wilmar Ito KT&G IOI Coca-Cola Amatil ITC Lion Nathan China Mengniu Dairy 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.4 6.6 (X) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 20
<Graph 19> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield Lotte Confectionary Lotte Chilsung Tingyi China Mengniu Dairy Yakult JT Kikkoman Wilmar Hite Asahi Ajinomoto CJ Kirin Nippon Meat Nissin Food Ito Nisshin Nong Shim ITC Uni-President IOI KT&G Coca-Cola Amatil Foster's Lion Nathan Goodman 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.9 (%) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 20> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA Nong Shim Ajinomoto Nissin Food Lotte Chilsung 4.4 7.0 7.2 7.3 Asahi 7.4 Kirin Wilmar Goodman 8.0 8.1 8.9 Lotte Confectionary Ito Coca-Cola Amatil 9.7 9.8 9.9 KT&G 9.9 JT Yakult Hite 10.0 10.0 10.2 Foster's Lion Nathan IOI 10.3 10.3 11.0 ITC 11.9 CJ China Mengniu Dairy 14.7 17.4 (X) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 21
<Graph 21> Leading AP F&B : PEG Wilmar Hite Uni-President KT&G China Mengniu Dairy Foster's ITC IOI Ajinomoto Coca-Cola Amatil Goodman Ito Lotte Chilsung Nippon Meat Nong Shim Lion Nathan Yakult Kikkoman Kirin Nissin Food CJ JT Tingyi 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.0 6.2 8.1 12.8 (X) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: EPS GROWTH = 06~08E EPS CAGR <Graph 22> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PSR Nippon Meat Wilmar Asahi Nisshin Nong Shim Kikkoman Ajinomoto Kirin JT Ito Hite Nissin Food Goodman China Mengniu Dairy Lotte Chilsung CJ Yakult Coca-Cola Amatil Lotte Confectionary Lion Nathan Foster's Uni-President IOI ITC KT&G 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.9 4.0 (X) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 22
Korea Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 23
III. Domestic F&B Sector Overview 강세장 속, 방어적 측면보다는 민감도 큰 종목 위주의 상승 움직임 역사적, 상대적 밸류에이션 수준의 점진적 하향 조정 이루어 지고 있음 MSCI Korea 기준 음식료 섹터의 지난 1주간 상대수익률은 1.4%에 그침. 세부 섹터별로는 음 료 섹터가 식료 및 담배 섹터 대비 양호한 수익률을 시현했는데, 이는 롯데칠성과 하이트맥주의 양호한 수익률에서 기인함. 어닝스의 방어적 성격(KT&G, 농심 등)보다는 경기 민감도가 높은 종목(롯데칠성, 하이트맥주 등) 위주로 주가 상승함. 앞서 언급했듯이 한국 F&B 섹터의 밸류에이션은 글로벌 및 AP peer 대비 큰 매력은 없는 상태 임. 다만 역사적으로 보아 밸류에이션상 투자매력이 회복되는 국면이 진행 중인 것으로 판단됨. 즉 historical relative PER이 2004년말 최고점인 1.7x 및 2007년초 고점 1.6x 대비 상당 폭의 조정을 거쳐 현재 1.3x 수준까지 하락했음. 특히 relative EV/EBITDA 기준으로는 1.0x를 하회 하기 시작했음. EPS growth 대비 PER 배수를 기준으로 하이트맥주 및 KT&G의 밸류에이션 매력이 큰 편이고, ROE 수준을 고려한 PBR 배수를 참고한다면 KT&G가 매력적인 투자 대안. <Graph 23> Korea F&B Sector Relative to MSCI Korea by industry (%) 140 130 Tobacco 120 110 Food 90 80 Beverage 70 60 06/01 06/03 06/05 Beverage 06/07 06/09 06/11 07/01 07/03 07/05 07/07 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 (2006/01/01=) <Graph 24> Consumer Staple Industry s Last Week Performance by industry (%) 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 9.2 7.8 6.4 13.6 6.9 6.9 12.3 9.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 Korea Consumer Staples Food Retailing Beverage Food Tobacco Household Products Personal Products 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 24
<Graph 25> Winners and Losers of Last Week 롯데칠성 14.8 롯데삼강 하이트맥주 대림수산 13.0 12.8 13.5 오뚜기 동원F&B 진로발효 삼양제넥스 CJ 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.2 무학 9.1 삼양사 7.7 KT&G 풀무원 6.5 6.9 오리온 대상 5.1 5.4 롯데제과 4.4 빙그레 2.6 농심 매일유업 1.6 1.6 (%) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 자료: Factset Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 25
<Table 5> Korea F&B Comparative Valuation Company Name CODE Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) OP G(YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) OP Margin ROE 07E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E (%) (W bn) (W bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (W bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary KT&G 033780 0.99 9.57 2,501 10.5 5.2 17.8 4.2 713 21.4 7.7 33.6 33.3 24.1 25.0 CJ 001040 0.37 3.63 2,896 9.3 6.9 30.5 11.5 119 (28.2) 51.0 8.6 9.0 7.2 10.2 하이트맥주 000140 0.26 2.49 960 7.5 7.7 21.9 9.4 144 41.0 18.3 25.6 26.0 11.2 12.2 롯데제과 004990 0.23 2.27 10,792 5.9 4.7 45.8 7.3 1,310 (55.9) 12.3 9.5 9.8 7.9 8.2 롯데칠성 005300 0.19 1.82 10,782 6.2 7.2 8.0 10.6 804 1.9 15.2 7.6 7.8 5.4 6.1 오리온 001800 0.17 1.63 5,431 1.0 2.2 16.2 9.8 877 (13.7) (8.0) 5.8 6.2 19.3 16.0 농심 004370 0.14 1.34 15,818 2.2 1.6 0.5 6.9 127 6.9 (0.7) 9.3 9.8 12.7 11.5 삼양사 000070 0.07 0.67 11,700 5.0 7.9 1.2 10.3 448 90.7 22.5 3.7 3.8 5.7 6.5 매일유업 005990 0.05 0.52 6,887 4.8 3.8 24.2 9.0 320 5.2 8.1 4.5 4.7 14.3 13.6 오뚜기 007310 0.05 0.53 999 3.0 2.0 40.7 14.9 43 35.1 18.3 5.1 5.7 14.4 15.0 대상 001680 0.04 0.38 10,190 5.6 3.3 53.3 39.6 12 (167.3) 119.6 3.8 5.1 3.5 7.2 빙그레 005180 0.04 0.39 5,259 5.5 4.0 14.0 (8.7) 34 18.0 (9.6) 8.2 7.2 14.0 11.7 삼양제넥스 003940 0.03 0.30 2,280 12.0 2.0 (15.5) 2.1 27 (17.5) 6.1 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 롯데삼강 002270 0.03 0.32 3,485 9.3 8.4 27.6 9.4 270 45.6 20.4 8.4 8.5 11.4 13.2 동원F&B 049770 0.02 0.23 6,867 8.2 7.0 47.3 14.4 186 31.3 16.0 3.9 4.2 7.8 8.6 풀무원 017810 0.02 0.22 3,565 3.3 2.3 14.6 12.1 197 9.0 29.0 4.8 5.3 12.5 13.8 진로발효 018120 0.02 0.19 696 6.2 7.7 4.6 9.6 176 72.0 (33.2) 29.0 29.5 21.1 22.3 무학 033920 0.02 0.16 113 9.8 3.0 13.2 3.5 18 25.1 114.6 19.1 19.2 14.6 25.9 대림수산 003960 0.01 0.14 195 4.0 6.0 239.3 52.9 11 (4.2) 55.3 5.7 8.3 37.9 39.6 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주: 음영 기업은 당사 추정치 기준, 그 외의 기업은 FnGuide 컨센선스 기준 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 26
<Table 6> Korea F&B Comparative Performance Company Name Price Foreign CHG 12-month Forward Valuation Tr. Tr. Performance Ownership 3Mon PER PSR PEG PBR EV/EBITDA 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 3Y (Won) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Valuation Summary KT&G 66,700 51.0 (3.3) 12.9 4.0 0.9 3.4 11.3 6.9 (5.8) (2.6) 13.1 13.1 18.1 126.1 CJ 119,000 22.1 0.2 25.7 1.5 6.2 2.3 17.4 10.2 (7.8) 19.0 20.7 27.1 6.3 107.7 하이트맥주 117,500 25.9 (0.5) 15.8 1.0 0.5 2.0 12.1 13.0 (7.8) (3.7) 10.3 17.5 (1.7) 49.7 롯데제과 1,600,000 35.9 (6.7) 16.1 1.9 (0.5) 1.5 16.2 4.4 (9.1) 36.2 24.5 33.9 32.2 184.2 롯데칠성 1,470,000 37.3 (3.9) 20.5 1.5 2.5 1.3 10.4 14.8 (7.0) 26.9 10.5 15.5 5.0 120.7 오리온 274,000 41.4 (0.2) 19.0 2.9 (1.7) 3.7 42.4 5.4 (12.7) 7.5 21.2 27.7 0.6 260.1 농심 219,500 31.7 2.5 10.6 0.6 3.5 1.4 4.9 1.6 (16.2) (12.5) (14.6) (2.4) (23.0) (5.8) 삼양사 68,500 7.1 (0.3) 13.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 10.3 7.7 (8.7) 3.9 28.0 40.9 10.1 214.2 매일유업 38,600 20.1 0.5 15.3 0.7 2.3 2.3 12.2 1.6 (1.8) 6.6 32.0 103.2 50.2 743.7 오뚜기 153,500 21.6 (1.9) 11.3 0.2 0.4 1.8 9.1 10.4 3.7 39.5 71.1 65.6 48.3 522.7 대상 11,400 16.7 1.4 20.3 0.2 NA 1.1 9.7 5.1 (20.0) 4.1 16.7 0.3 (5.4) 315.2 빙그레 39,300 35.8 (3.0) 12.1 0.2 3.7 1.6 5.8 2.6 (6.3) (2.4) 1.8 10.7 (7.7) 80.3 삼양제넥스 102,000 35.8 (1.7) 11.2 0.1 (1.7) 1.0 5.1 10.3 (4.7) 11.4 11.7 44.9 9.3 269.6 롯데삼강 252,000 3.8 0.4 10.5 0.8 0.3 1.3 9.4 13.5 3.9 23.5 55.1 90.9 51.8 214.6 동원F&B 72,300 20.7 (1.4) 11.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 7.8 10.4 (8.2) 3.4 2.1 43.2 13.5 96.5 풀무원 42,500 17.7 4.3 9.3 0.6 0.5 1.3 12.4 6.5 (19.0) 9.7 38.4 53.2 32.8 3.9 진로발효 13,900 3.3 (3.0) 10.0 2.4 1.4 2.3 6.8 10.3 (11.5) 2.5 35.3 61.5 38.8 816.2 무학 6,450 8.1 (2.6) 5.7 0.1 0.1 1.4 5.9 9.1 (10.0) 26.5 17.3 44.6 26.5 152.9 대림수산 26,050 1.6 0.5 9.8 0.0 0.4 3.2 9.7 12.8 1.0 36.0 40.8 44.7 21.2 98.7 자료: Factset, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 주1: 국외 기업은 I/B/E/S 컨센서스, 국내 기업 중 당사 커버리지 아닌 종목은 FnGuide 컨센서스, 당사 커버리지 종목은 당사 추정치 기준임 주2: : 기간별 Best : 기간별 Worst Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 27
<Graph 26> PER - EPS Growth 30.0 (Fw PER, X) CJ 25.0 롯데제과 오리온 20.0 15.0 삼양제넥스 롯데칠성 매일유업 빙그레 KT&G 동원F&B 하이트맥주 롯데삼강 10.0 농심 진로발효 풀무원 대림수산 오뚜기 5.0 0.0 (06~08E EPS CAGR, %) (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 자료: Fnguide, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 27> Tr.PBR - ROE Map (Tr.PBR, X) 4.0 3.5 오리온 KT&G 3.0 2.5 CJ 매일유업 진로발효 2.0 하이트맥주 오뚜기 빙그레 롯데칠성 롯데제과 1.5 풀무원 대상 롯데삼강 농심 동원F&B 무학 1.0 삼양제넥스 0.5 삼양사 (07E ROE, %) 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 자료: Fnguide, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <Graph 28> PEG Valuation (X) 7.0 6.0 6.2 5.0 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.0 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 삼양사 롯데삼강 오뚜기 동원F&B 풀무원 하이트맥주 KT&G 진로발효 매일유업 롯데칠성 농심 빙그레 CJ 자료: Fnguide, Mpustat, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 28
Historical high 04/12월 1.7x 및 연초 1.6x 대비 30% 하향 조정된 relative PER <Graph 29> Korean F&B s Historical Relative PER (relative PEx) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 (주: Benchmark는 KOSPI) PBR은 여전히 시장 대비 약 22% 프리미엄 상태 <Graph 30> Korean F&B s Historical Relative PBR (relative PBx) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정(주: Benchmark는 KOSPI) 상대 EV/EBITDA는 2005년 이래 최초로 1.0x 미만으로 하락 <Graph 31> Korean F&B s Historical Relative EV/EBITDA (relative EV/EBITDAx) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 29
자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정(주: Benchmark는 KOSPI) Appendix: Company Profiles Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 30
Altria Group Inc. (MO-US) MO-US 02209S103 2692632 NYSE Common stock Headqrters New York New York USA +1 917 643-4000 Price Range PChg Val (M) Beta Web Site http://www.altria.com 68.630 72-56 6.6 144,480 0.71 Industry Tobacco (2430) P/E P/Book P/CF P/Sales Div Yield Inst Hldgs 76.6 % Insider Hldgs 0.2 % 16.8 8.9 9.9 1.6 4.0 Q3 2007 Earnings Release 17-Oct-2007 12:00AM (EST) Ratios Relative Strength vs. S&P 500 Stock Index Latest 3 Yr Avg 5 Yr Avg 114 Gross Margin 46.7 46.8 47.0 112 110 EBITD Margin 28.3 28.0 28.6 108 106 Net Margin 17.1 15.8 16.1 104 R&D%Sales 1.4 1.4 1.3 102 ROA 11.3 10.3 10.8 98 ROE 31.9 32.6 39.2 96 Debt%Equity 47.2 63.2 81.4 94 Payout Ratio 58.1 60.0 57.0 Income Statement Summary (Millions) 12/06 12/05 12/04 12/03 12/02 12/01 Net Sales 70,324 68,922 63,963 60,704 62,182 72,944 Revenue Growth 2.0 7.8 5.4 (2.4) (14.8) 15.3 Cost of Goods Sold * 37,485 36,736 33,976 31,879 32,658 34,281 Gross Margin 46.7 46.7 46.9 47.5 47.5 53.0 Operating Income 18,088 17,474 16,322 16,223 17,242 16,303 Operating Margin 25.7 25.4 25.5 26.7 27.7 22.4 Interest Expense 1,331 1,556 1,417 1,367 1,424 1,659 Pretax Income 16,536 15,435 14,004 14,760 18,098 14,284 Tax Rate 26.3 29.9 32.4 34.9 35.5 37.9 Net Income before Extraordinary Items 12,022 10,668 9,420 9,204 11,102 8,566 Net Income Growth 12.7 13.2 2.3 (17.1) 29.6 0.7 Net Margin 17.1 15.5 14.7 15.2 17.9 11.7 EPS excl Extraordinary Items 4.29 3.83 3.42 3.39 3.91 2.91 EPS Growth 12.0 11.8 0.9 (13.2) 34.3 3.5 Shares Outstanding 2,794.3 2,777.2 2,744.2 2,714.6 2,717.2 2,868.1 Dividends per Share 2.49 2.30 2.12 1.98 1.83 1.67 Payout Ratio 58.1 60.0 61.8 58.4 46.8 57.2 Balance Sheet (Millions) & Ratios 12/06 12/05 12/04 12/03 12/02 12/01 Current Assets 26,152 25,781 25,901 21,382 17,441 17,275 Total Assets 104,270 107,949 101,648 96,175 87,540 84,968 Current Liabilities 25,427 26,158 23,574 21,393 19,082 20,653 Long-Term Debt 14,498 17,868 18,683 21,163 21,355 18,651 Total Debt 18,699 24,134 22,980 24,539 23,320 22,102 Current Ratio 1.03 0.99 1.10 1.00 0.91 0.84 Quick Ratio 0.55 0.58 0.67 0.55 0.44 0.40 EBIT / Interest 13.4 10.9 10.9 11.8 13.7 9.6 Total Assets/Equity 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.3 L-T Debt % Total Capitalization 26.8 33.4 37.8 45.8 52.3 48.7 Inventory Turnover 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.9 Accounts Receivable Turnover 12.3 12.4 11.6 11.7 12.1 14.3 Total Asset Turnover 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 Return on Assets 11.3 10.2 9.5 10.0 12.9 10.4 Return on Equity 31.9 32.1 33.8 41.3 56.8 49.5 Altria Group Inc. (MO-US) 68.63 144,480 16.8 8.9 9.9 1.6 British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS-GB) 32.89 67,090 17.0 5.3 15.5 3.5 Reynolds American Inc. (RAI-US) 64.61 19,060 16.7 2.6 13.6 2.2 Altadis, S.A. (ALT-ES) 65.75 16,643 27.0 18.3 16.0 1.0 Altria Group Inc. (MO-US) Altria Group, Inc..is the parent company of Philip Morris International, Philip Morris USA and Philip Morris Capital Corporation, and is one of the world's largest tobacco corporations.. Philip Morris USA Inc manufactures and markets cigarettes in the United States. Philip Morris International Inc manufactures and markets cigarettes internationally. The major brands include Marlboro, Philip Morris, Parliament, Virginia Slims and others. In addition, Altria Group has a 28.6% economic and voting interest in SABMiller, plc, as a result of the 2002 Miller Brewing Company merger into South African Breweries plc, which formed SABMiller plc, the world's second-largest brewer. In March 2007, all shares of Kraft Foods Inc. owned by Altria were spun-off to Altria's shareholders and as a result, Altria no longer holds any interest in Kraft Foods. Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 31
Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD-US) BUD-US 035229103 2033004 NYSE Common stock Headqrters St Louis Missouri USA +1 314 577-2000 Price Range PChg Val (M) Beta Web Site http://www.anheuser-busch.com 48.000 55-46 -2.4 35,979 0.64 Industry Beverages: Alcoholic (2425) P/E P/Book P/CF P/Sales Div Yield Inst Hldgs 64.4 % Insider Hldgs 1.0 % 18.3 9.2 14.3 2.2 2.8 Conference Presentation 06-Sep-2007 12:00AM (EST) Ratios Relative Strength vs. S&P 500 Stock Index Latest 3 Yr Avg 5 Yr Avg 104 Gross Margin 35.3 37.2 38.4 102 EBITD Margin 23.6 25.7 26.8 Net Margin 12.5 13.2 13.7 98 R&D%Sales ROA 11.9 12.6 13.2 96 94 ROE 54.0 66.2 65.0 92 90 Debt%Equity 194.3 247.7 245.6 88 Payout Ratio 44.7 40.7 37.9 Income Statement Summary (Millions) 12/06 12/05 12/04 12/03 12/02 12/01 Net Sales 15,717 15,036 14,934 14,147 13,566 12,912 Revenue Growth 4.5 0.7 5.6 4.3 5.1 5.3 Cost of Goods Sold * 10,165 9,580 8,983 8,449 8,131 7,950 Gross Margin 35.3 36.3 39.9 40.3 40.1 38.4 Operating Income 2,720 2,726 3,361 3,199 2,980 2,705 Operating Margin 17.3 18.1 22.5 22.6 22.0 21.0 Interest Expense 434 435 405 377 351 334 Pretax Income 2,277 2,192 2,999 2,824 2,624 2,378 Tax Rate 39.5 38.8 38.8 38.7 39.7 39.0 Net Income before Extraordinary Items 1,965 1,839 2,240 2,076 1,934 1,705 Net Income Growth 6.9 (17.9) 7.9 7.3 13.5 9.9 Net Margin 12.5 12.2 15.0 14.7 14.3 13.2 EPS excl Extraordinary Items 2.53 2.35 2.77 2.48 2.20 1.89 EPS Growth 7.7 (15.2) 11.7 12.7 16.4 11.8 Shares Outstanding 766.1 777.7 785.0 813.1 846.6 879.1 Dividends per Share 1.13 1.03 0.93 0.83 0.75 0.68 Payout Ratio 44.7 43.8 33.6 33.5 34.1 35.7 Balance Sheet (Millions) & Ratios 12/06 12/05 12/04 12/03 12/02 12/01 Current Assets 1,830 1,759 1,818 1,630 1,505 1,550 Total Assets 16,377 16,555 16,173 14,690 14,120 13,945 Current Liabilities 2,246 1,983 1,969 1,857 1,788 1,737 Long-Term Debt 7,654 7,972 8,279 7,285 6,603 5,984 Total Debt 7,654 7,972 8,279 7,285 6,603 5,984 Current Ratio 0.81 0.89 0.92 0.88 0.84 0.89 Quick Ratio 0.51 0.56 0.57 0.56 0.53 0.55 EBIT / Interest 6.2 6.0 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.1 Total Assets/Equity 4.2 5.0 6.1 5.4 4.6 3.4 L-T Debt % Total Capitalization 66.0 70.5 75.6 72.9 68.4 59.6 Inventory Turnover 15.1 14.2 14.1 14.7 14.1 13.2 Accounts Receivable Turnover 22.4 21.8 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.1 Total Asset Turnover 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Return on Assets 11.9 11.2 14.5 14.4 13.8 12.6 Return on Equity 54.0 61.2 83.3 72.0 54.4 41.6 Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD-US) 48.00 35,979 18.3 9.2 14.3 2.2 SABMiller plc (SAB-GB) 25.95 41,041 22.4 2.8 9.0 2.6 Heineken N.V. (HEIA-NL) 61.34 30,031 18.3 4.4 8.2 1.9 Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP-US) 85.88 7,702 17.3 1.2 9.2 1.3 Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD-US) Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc.. Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. (ABC) is the holding company of Anheuser-Busch, Incorporated (ABI), a beer brewer, and is also the parent corporation to a number of subsidiaries that conduct various other business operations. ABC's operations comprise four segments: domestic beer, international beer, packaging, and entertainment. The Group's principal activities are categorized into five business segments. The Domestic beer segment consists of the Group's United States beer manufacturing and wholesale operations. The International beer segment consists of the Group's export sales and overseas beer production and marketing operations. The Entertainment segment consists of the Group's SeaWorld, Busch Gardens and other adventure park operations. The Packaging segment is comprised of the Group's aluminum beverage can and lid manufacturing, aluminum recycling, label printing, crown and closure liner material manufacturing and glass manufacturing operations. The Other segment is comprised of the Group's real estate development, transportation and communications businesses. Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 32
Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM-US) ADM-US 039483102 2047317 NYSE Common stock Headqrters Decatur Illinois USA +1 217 424-5200 Price Range PChg Val (M) Beta Web Site http://www.admworld.com 32.860 42-30 2.8 21,449 1.25 Industry Agricultural Commodities/Milling (2225) P/E P/Book P/CF P/Sales Div Yield Inst Hldgs 67.3 % Insider Hldgs 3.7 % 10.0 2.0 7.5 0.5 1.4 Q1 2008 Earnings Release (Proje 30-Oct-2007 12:00AM Ratios Relati ve Strength vs. S&P 500 Stock Index Latest 3 Yr Avg 5 Yr Avg 190 Gross Margin 7.4 7.5 6.9 180 170 EBITD Margin 6.2 6.3 5.7 160 Net Margin 4.9 3.8 2.8 150 R&D%Sales 0.1 0.1 140 ROA 6.0 4.4 130 ROE 13.7 10.1 120 Debt%Equity 48.6 61.1 110 Payout Ratio 19.2 23.3 Income Statement Summary (Millions) 6/07 6/06 6/05 6/04 6/03 6/02 Net Sales 44,018 36,596 35,944 36,151 30,708 23,454 Revenue Growth 20.3 1.8 (0.6) 17.7 30.9 17.0 Cost of Goods Sold * 40,781 33,554 33,470 33,952 28,968 21,687 Gross Margin 7.4 8.3 6.9 6.1 5.7 7.5 Operating Income 2,042 1,869 1,393 1,197 792 940 Operating Margin 4.6 5.1 3.9 3.3 2.6 4.0 Interest Expense 434.0 365.2 326.6 342.0 360.0 356.0 Pretax Income 2860 1681 1288 537 565 657 Tax Rate 34.7 32.3 36.7 41.6 31.9 31.7 Net Income before Extraordinary Items 2162 1312 1044 495 451 511 Net Income Growth 64.8 25.6 111.1 9.7 (11.7) 33.3 Net Margin 4.9 3.6 2.9 1.4 1.5 2.2 EPS excl Extraordinary Items 2 2 1 1 1 EPS Growth 55.1 45.8 18.9 25.0 10.8 Shares Outstanding 655.7 650.4 650.7 644.8 650.0 Dividends per Share 0 0 0 0 0 Payout Ratio 16.5 21.8 28.0 26.7 30.6 Balance Sheet (Millions) & Ratios 6/07 6/06 6/05 6/04 6/03 6/02 Current Assets 11,826 9,711 10,339 8,422 7,363 Total Assets 21,269 18,598 19,369 17,183 15,416 Current Liabilities 6,165 5,367 6,750 5,147 4,719 Long-Term Debt 4,050 3,530 3,740 3,872 3,111 Total Debt 4,680 4,179 5,671 5,183 4,385 Current Ratio 1.92 1.81 1.53 1.64 1.56 Quick Ratio 1.16 1.08 0.85 0.95 0.87 EBIT / Interest 7.6 5.6 4.9 2.6 2.6 2.8 Total Assets/Equity 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 L-T Debt % Total Capitalization 29.2 29.5 32.7 35.4 31.5 Inventory Turnover 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.5 7.4 Accounts Receivable Turnover 8.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 8.9 Total Asset Turnover 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 Return on Assets 6.6 5.5 2.7 2.8 3.4 Return on Equity 14.4 12.9 6.7 6.5 7.8 Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM-US) 32.86 21,449 10.0 2.0 7.5 0.5 Bunge Limited (BG-US) 86.67 10,473 17.7 1.9 18.5 0.3 Corn Products International, Inc. (CPO-US) 44.80 3,353 20.0 2.3 13.9 1.1 Cargill, Incorporated (Private) Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM-US) Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. The Group's principal activities are to procure, transport, store, process and merchandise of agricultural commodities and products. The Group operates in four segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Agricultural Services and Other segment. The Oilseeds Processing segment processes oilseeds into vegetable oils and meals principally for the food and feed industries. The Corn Processing segment is engaged in wet milling and dry milling corn operations. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes the Company's extensive grain elevator and transportation network to buy, store, clean and transport agricultural commodities. In June 2007, it announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the business operations of Fasco Mills Company, headquartered in Mendota, Illinois is a family-owned grain and feed company operating one of the largest networks of grain elevators and rail shipping terminals in Illinois. Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 33
Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (2802) 2802 6010906 Tokyo Common stock Headqrters Chuo-Ku 104-8315 Tokyo Japan +81 3 5250 8161 Price Range PChg Val (M) Beta Web Site http://www.ajinomoto.co.jp 1381.000 1640-1230 -12.2 894,322 0.59 Industry Food: Specialty/Candy (2410) P/E P/Book P/CF P/Sales Div Yield Inst Hldgs 10.9 % Insider Hldgs 19.6 % 25.4 1.5 14.4 0.8 1.2 Interim 2007 Earnings Release 09-Nov-2007 12:00AM (EST) EPS Estimates Relative Strength vs. Japan 110 3/08 3/09 3/10 105 Mean 54.14 64.03 74.24 High 62.80 76.13 92.34 Low 49.50 58.50 66.90 95 Exp EPS Chg 15.9 18.3 16.0 90 1 Mo Revision 1.0-0.1 0.5 85 3 Mo Revision -7.8-7.9-5.4 80 Forward P/E 25.5 21.6 18.6 Income Statement Summary (Billions) 3/07 3/06 3/05 3/04 3/03 3/02 Net Sales 1,159 1,107 1,073 1,040 988 944 Revenue Growth 4.7 3.1 3.2 5.2 4.7 3.9 Cost of Goods Sold * 840 806 771 753 723 684 Gross Margin 27.5 27.2 28.1 27.6 26.8 27.5 Operating Income 64 60 71 65 54 49 Operating Margin 5.5 5.5 6.6 6.3 5.5 5.2 Interest Expense 5.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.4 4.7 Pretax Income 56 57 82 67 65 58 Tax Rate 39.9 33.8 42.0 41.3 44.5 40.0 Net Income before Extraordinary Items 30 35 45 36 33 31 Net Income Growth (13.4) (22.1) 23.5 9.3 5.5 Net Margin 2.6 3.2 4.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 EPS excl Extraordinary Items 47 54 69 56 51 48 EPS Growth (12.9) (22.0) 23.8 9.5 4.9 Shares Outstanding 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Dividends per Share 15 14 13 12 11 10 Payout Ratio 32.1 26.1 18.9 21.6 21.7 20.7 Balance Sheet (Billions) & Ratios 3/07 3/06 3/05 3/04 3/03 3/02 Current Assets 460 426 414 378 365 357 Total Assets 1,054 991 891 854 830 812 Current Liabilities 266 238 231 226 306 266 Long-Term Debt 108 110 91 102 52 75 Total Debt 151 146 126 144 151 156 Current Ratio 1.73 1.79 1.80 1.67 1.19 1.34 Quick Ratio 1.27 1.34 1.37 1.24 0.87 0.95 EBIT / Interest 12.1 18.4 28.1 23.6 20.4 13.5 Total Assets/Equity 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 L-T Debt % Total Capitalization 16.1 17.3 16.2 19.2 11.8 16.5 Inventory Turnover 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.1 6.8 Accounts Receivable Turnover 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 Total Asset Turnover 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Return on Assets 3.0 3.7 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 Return on Equity 5.5 7.0 10.0 8.9 8.6 8.5 Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (2802) 1381.00 894,322 25.4 1.5 14.4 0.8 Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM-US) 3,821.13 2,494,159 10.0 2.0 7.5 0.5 McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-US) 4,250.22 551,213 24.4 4.7 18.3 1.7 The Nisshin OilliO Group, Ltd. (2602) 644.00 111,218 20.3 1.0 10.3 0.4 Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (2802) Ajinomoto Company Incorporated. The Group's principal activities are the manufacture of seasonings, edible oil and other food and beverage products. The operations are carried out through the following divisions: Domestic food; Overseas food products; Amino acids; Pharmaceuticals and Other. Domestic food products and Overseas food products include Ajinomoto and other seasonings, edible oils, processed food, beverages, daily products. The company also provides amino acids, such as nucleotides, feed-use amino acids, amino acids for pharmaceuticals and foods, pharmaceutical fine chemicals, aspartame, and specialty chemicals. In addition, Ajinomoto Co. offers pharmaceuticals and medical foods for infusions, clinical nutrition, and dialysis/gastrointestinal diseases. It also provides packaging materials, and distribution and other services including distribution, engineering and packing. In July 2007, it announced plans to introduce Capsiate Natura, a capsinoid dietary supplement, into the United States market. Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 34