2012 년도예비타당성조사보고서 교외선 ( 능곡 ~ 의정부 ) 철도사업 2012. 7.
요약
요약 제 1 장예비타당성조사의개요 1. 사업추진배경 2000 5 16, 2004 4 1,, 2006 -,, 39,., ~~,
2. 사업의추진경위및추진주체 2004. 12: (~) () - 21 (B/C=0.34). 2010. 04~2012. 02: (~) () - (B/C=0.53, AHP=0.367). 2011. 04: 2 (2011~2020)() - (2016~2020) 2011. 11: 2011-5 (2011. 11) 2010 12 1). () 20( ) -,. : : 100% : 1) (3040), (30 5.5%, 3140 4.5%),,.
3. 사업의주요내용 < 표 1> 교외선 ( 능곡 ~ 의정부 ) 철도사업사업개요 (2011) () () (2012) (~) (~) (~) 29.9km 35.1km 29.6km ( ~ ) ( ~ ) ( ~ ) 29.9km 29.6km 29.6km (~) 5.5km 1 6,345 ( 100%) 1 1,074 ( 100%) 7,172 ( 100%) 2011 ~ 2018 2013 ~ 2020 제 2 장기초자료분석및조사의쟁점 1. 기초자료분석
2. 교통관련현황분석 3. 상위및관련계획검토 4 (2011~2020) 2 (2001~2020) 2 (2011~2020) (2001~2020) - 2. 2020 2020 2020 5 4. 사업의주요쟁점 6
, ~ ~~, MTA 1 2 O/D O/D -. (GTX) (GTX) A(~()), B(~), C (~) GTX GTX,
,,,,,,, 제3장기술적검토및비용추정 1. 기술적검토 가. 노선계획 R=1,200m 46% 12.5 21, ~~,,, - ( 163, 2009.9.1)
( 2009-832, 2009.9.1). - ~ 1, ~ 2, ~ 3. - 1 ~~,.. - 2 ~~~.. - 3 ~~ #1, (L=8,780m) #2,.,,. 나. 시설계획,,,, 2(#1, #2)
< 표 2> 정거장별시설계획 0km 000 0-1km 850 1km 850 2 2, 6km 160 4km 310 2 2 11km 100 4km 940 2 3 17km 230 6km 130 2 3 #1 20km 850 3km 620, 3 - - #2 26km 150 5km 300, 2 - - - 29km 630 3km 480 -,,,, (2011.2), 다. 운행계획, ~ ~ (Vmax=120/h), EMU250(Vmax=250/h) ~~ 9 15 (EMU),, 60,
< 표 3> 기수행예비타당성조사 (2011) 와본과업에서의비교 (2011) (2012) () () ~~ ~~ EMU230 EMU250 110/h 110/h 230/h 90/h 110/h 250/h RH: 9 NH: 15 RH: 12 NH: 12 60 1 1 RH: 9 NH: 15 60 6 1 4 1 6 1 25 1 6 1 6 1, 7(6 1), EMU 2(6 1) EMU 2(6 1) < 표 4> 소요차량수산정결과 () (EMU) ~~ 10 2 12 (2011) 6-6 (2012) 7-7 7 1 8 (2011) 1-1 (2012) 2-2 6 1 6 1
2. 총사업비추정 (5) (, 2008)( (5) ) 2011 2010 12 -,. -. - NATM 5 (2010.12.28.). - 6,,,, 2 2. -. -. - 6,,,,,.
(,, ) -,,, (ABS),,,,,., 2011 1% (5) - (~),,,. ++ 10%,.
< 표 5> 총사업비내역 (: ) A. 536,826 A-1. () 324,182 A-2. () 34,400 A-3. 30,471 A-4. 12,284 A-5. 86,687 A-6. 48,802 B. 45,625 B-1. 6,549 B-2. 13,182 B-3. 16,866 B-4. 4,880 B-5. 4,148 C. 70,763 D. 65,321 E. 83,513 E-1. 52,035 E-2. EMU 23,886 E-3. 7,592 F. 802,048 3. 운영비및대체투자비추정 ~~
< 표 6> 경제성분석용비용함수 43,542 (km) + 491 () + 442 -km + 349,441 () 30,451 (km) + 609 () + 222 -km + 292,805 () 131,555 (km) + 228 () + 269 -km + 360,589 () 1. 기본자료설정 제 4 장교통수요추정 (, 2010) O/D (MTA 2 ) - : 2013~2020 - : 2021
- : 2060 - : 2026, 2031, 2036 - PV RV, ~~. -,,,,. 2. 기본자료수정가. O/D 수정 MTA 2 38, 11, 15 O/D MTA 2 O/D 2011 KTDB O/D (MTA 2) O/D - O/D. - O/D,. - MTA 1 2 O/D,
나. 네트워크수정 2010 VDF, 2010 3. 수단분담및통행배정 (Incremental Logit) 4. 장래교통수요추정 GTX < 표 7> 예비타당성조사의시나리오설정 1 2 GTX GTX
- 1 GTX. - 2 GTX. 1-1 14,000~15,000/ (). < 표 8> 2021 년수단별통행발생량및수단분담률예측결과 (: /, %) () 23,525,840 16,878,658 3,302,341 10,077,522 53,784,361 43.74 31.38 6.14 18.74 100.00 23,516,611 16,873,252 3,302,139 10,092,359 53,784,361 43.72 31.37 6.14 18.76 100.00-9,229-5,406-202 14,837 0 < 표 9> 2036 년수단별통행발생량및수단분담률예측결과 (: /, %) () 24,563,344 16,576,204 3,366,470 9,785,248 54,291,266 45.24 30.53 6.20 18.02 100.00 24,553,604 16,571,007 3,366,253 9,800,401 54,291,266 45.23 30.52 6.20 18.05 100.00-9,740-5,197-217 15,153 0
2-2 12,000~13,000/ (). 1, GTX (~, ~), GTX. < 표 10> 2021 년수단별통행발생량및수단분담률예측결과 (: /, %) () 23,316,633 16,777,517 3,301,111 10,389,099 53,784,361 43.35 31.19 6.14 19.32 100.00 23,308,759 16,772,757 3,300,936 10,401,909 53,784,361 43.34 31.19 6.14 19.34 100.00-7,874-4,761-175 12,810 0 < 표 11> 2036 년수단별통행발생량및수단분담률예측결과 (: /, %) () 24,356,987 16,493,320 3,364,752 10,076,207 54,291,266 44.86 30.38 6.20 18.56 100.00 24,348,733 16,488,751 3,364,562 10,089,219 54,291,266 44.85 30.37 6.20 18.58 100.00-8,253-4,569-190 13,012 0 1
- 1 2021 36,569, 2036 39,257. 2021 36,569 62% 22,813. < 표 12> 2021 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 2,096 5,204 7,300 2,067 5,360 7,427 337904 1,012 0 1,012 890 0 890 333502 1,464 0 1,464 1,352 0 1,352 333508 8,063 0 8,063 8,188 0 8,188 333520 696 5,533 6,229 816 5,840 6,656 333521 424 340 764 552 364 916 ~~ 11,736 11,140 13,755 22,813 36,569 13,865 22,704 36,569 < 표 13> 2021 년노선별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 7,300 0 7,300 0 7,427 0 337904 526 406 7,419 486 483 7,427 333502 1,198 314 8,304 266 1,039 7,424 333508 7,216 882 14,639 847 7,306 8,197 333520 758 3,994 11,403 5,471 2,662 14,656 333521 266 529 11,140 498 387 11,847 ~~ 0 11,140 0 11,736 0 0 17,264 17,264 19,305 19,305
< 표 14> 2036 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 2,346 5,940 8,286 2,304 6,140 8,444 337904 1,022 0 1,022 885 0 885 333502 1,476 0 1,476 1,338 0 1,338 333508 8,235 0 8,235 8,392 0 8,392 333520 816 6,136 6,952 924 6,460 7,384 333521 452 412 864 616 400 1,016 ~~ 12,423 11,798 14,346 24,911 39,257 14,459 24,798 39,257 < 표 15> 2036 년노선별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 8,286 0 8,286 0 8,444 0 337904 526 403 8,408 497 482 8,444 333502 1,196 319 9,284 280 1,019 8,429 333508 7,311 981 15,614 924 7,411 9,168 333520 900 4,430 12,084 6,052 2,954 15,655 333521 296 582 11,798 568 434 12,557 ~~ 0 11,798 0 12,423 0 0 18,515 18,515 20,743 20,743 2-2 2021 31,780, 2036 33,892. 2021 31,780 62% 19,838.
< 표 16> 2021 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 1,023 4,712 5,735 1,115 4,904 6,019 337904 1,010 0 1,010 889 0 889 333502 1,383 0 1,383 1,235 0 1,235 333508 7,627 0 7,627 7,678 0 7,678 333520 616 4,920 5,536 684 5,418 6,102 333521 284 145 429 404 198 602 ~~ 10,061 9,256 11,943 19,838 31,780 12,005 19,776 31,780 < 표 17> 2021 년노선별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 5,735 0 5,735 0 6,019 0 337904 525 402 5,858 485 487 6,019 333502 1,126 286 6,698 257 949 6,022 333508 6,815 829 12,684 812 6,849 6,713 333520 330 3,661 9,353 5,206 2,441 12,750 333521 169 266 9,256 260 336 9,985 ~~ 0 9,256 0 10,061 0 0 14,700 14,700 17,081 17,081
< 표 18> 2036 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 1,096 5,424 6,520 1,203 5,708 6,911 337904 1,023 0 1,023 888 0 888 333502 1,383 0 1,383 1,222 0 1,222 333508 7,784 0 7,784 7,818 0 7,818 333520 728 5,552 6,280 786 5,811 6,597 333521 296 157 453 466 237 703 ~~ 10,449 9,753 12,310 21,582 33,892 12,383 21,509 33,892 < 표 19> 2036 년노선별승하차인원 (: /) 333333 6,520 0 6,520 0 6,911 0 337904 527 402 6,646 496 486 6,911 333502 1,126 302 7,470 257 920 6,902 333508 6,873 902 13,441 911 6,916 7,565 333520 395 3,958 9,878 5,885 2,639 13,570 333521 190 315 9,753 263 388 10,324 ~~ 0 9,753 0 10,449 0 0 15,631 15,631 18,261 18,261
제 5 장편익산정 2010,,,, < 표 20> 편익산정결과 ( 시나리오 1) (: /) 2021 141.87 249.52-35.05 19.34 11.75 25.87 413.30 2026 147.22 257.72-35.88 20.19 12.13 26.71 428.09 2031 151.95 264.20-36.56 20.50 12.33 27.12 439.53 2036 147.56 258.34-36.12 20.24 12.16 26.77 428.95 < 표 21> 편익산정결과 ( 시나리오 2) (: /) 2021 131.48 231.03-32.31 18.21 11.20 20.83 380.43 2026 137.87 241.07-33.76 19.37 12.00 21.28 397.83 2031 141.23 247.69-34.18 20.04 12.70 21.42 408.91 2036 140.79 246.93-34.06 19.97 12.65 21.34 407.61
제 6 장경제성분석 : 2010 : 2021 : 40( 2060) : 30(5.5% ), 31~40(4.5% ) B/C 1 0.66, 2 0.62 < 표 22> 경제성분석결과 (2012) (2011) 1 2 () 4,168 4,445 4,164 () 7,871 6,765 6,707 B/C 0.53 0.66 0.62 NPV() -3,703-2,320-2,542 IRR(%) 0.11 2.10 1.74 제7장정책적분석 1. 지역균형발전 가. 지역낙후도 16 170 16 4
170,,, 23, 43, 38 나. 지역경제파급효과 3,157.58 0.1402% 2009 53 0.4660%, -. < 표 23> 지역경제활성화효과 () 5,295.01 3,157.58 (GRDP, 2010 ) 2,252,539 0.1402% (: ) : 1) 2010. 2) AHP GRDP. 3) 2009 53 0.4660%. 2. 정책의일관성및추진의지가. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성 4 (2011~2020), 2 (2001~2020), 2 (2011~2020),
(2001~2020) - 2 (2011~2020). - (2001~2020) ~. 나. 사업추진의지및선호도,,, -,,,. -,,. 3. 사업추진상의위험요인 가. 재원조달가능성 (2011~2015) 2015 7 210, 7
2019 2,417 3.44% SOC,,. 3 (2011~2015) 3 (2011~2015) (11 ) - 8,021( ). 2012, 2012 1 8,348 15.8% - 7 2019 2,417 1 8,348 13.2%. 나. 재무성판단 (~) () PI=0.18~0.20 PI=0.78~0.84
< 표 24> 재무성분석결과요약 ( 시나리오 1) (: ) 1,322 6,754 1,572 PI 0.20 0.84 FNPV -5,432-250 IRR(%) - - < 표 25> 재무성분석결과요약 ( 시나리오 2) (: ) 1,188 6,702 1,520 PI 0.18 0.78 FNPV -5,514-332 IRR(%) - - 다. 환경성평가 (~) 29.6km 5.9km 6, 1-1 -,,,
제 8 장종합평가및정책제언 1. AHP 를활용한종합판단 AHP 1: GTX : 8,020( 835 ) B/C: 0.66 NPV(): -2,320 AHP AHP : : 46.9 : 31.3 : 21.8, 0.395 6 < 표 26> AHP 평가결과 1 0.417 0.583 2 0.368 0.632 3 0.379 0.621 4 0.451 0.549 5 0.388 0.612 6 0.374 0.626 0.395 0.605
2. 종합평가및정책제언 802,048-536,826-70,763-45,625-65,321 1(GTX ) - B/C = 0.66 2(GTX ) - B/C = 0.62 AHP AHP=0.395 (~) -,,, (~). -,, 2 (2011~2020).
< 표 27> 교외선 ( 능곡 ~ 의정부 ) 철도사업총괄요약표 (: ) : 29.6km - :,,,,, - :, 1 ~~~~~ 2013~2020 2 : 29.63km - :,,,,, - :, - 536,826-45,625-70,763-65,321-83,513 717,200 802,048 B/C - 0.66 0.62 AHP - 0.395 - : 1(GTX ), 1(GTX )